@article {pmid30776634, year = {2019}, author = {Ren, S and Qin, Q and Ren, H}, title = {Contrasting wheat phenological responses to climate change in global scale.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {620-631}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.394}, pmid = {30776634}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Comprehensive analysis of how wheat phenology responds to environmental factors in global scale is helpful for tackling the possible adverse effects of ongoing climate change on wheat production. In this study, six phenological parameters of global wheat, i.e., the growing season start (SGS), peak (PGS), end (EGS), length (LGS), as well as the vegetative period length (LVP) and reproductive period length (LRP), were retrieved from remote sensing data (1981-2014) by threshold-, logistic-, and shape-based methods. And then, we analyzed the effects of temperature, precipitation, short-wave (SW) radiation, and frost on spatiotemporal patterns of wheat phenology. In addition, haze impacts on wheat phenology were investigated in China and India where haze weather appears frequently in winter-spring seasons. Results showed that the occurrence time of SGS/PGS/EGS is gradually advanced from the pole to the equator and annual mean air temperature can explain >70% of their spatial variations. A dominant advanced SGS/PGS/EGS and a shortened LGS/LVP/LRP were detected in the study region due to the significant increase in temperature and SW radiation, as well as the decrease in frost days. Interannual fluctuations of SGS/PGS/EGS are primarily controlled by air temperature, while precipitation and frost only exerted some obvious impacts in some locations. Higher preseason temperature would induce an earlier wheat phenology and a shorter growing season, while adequate precipitation and frequent frost in preseason could delay the occurrence timing of wheat phenology and lead to a longer growing season. Besides, the decreased temperature resulted from severe haze weather may have partly counteracted the global-warming-induced advancing trend of wheat phenology in China, but further advanced the occurrence timing of wheat phenology through prompting vernalization in India. Overall, though wheat growth is largely constrained by human management, we still highlight the strong impacts of global climate change on wheat phenology.}, } @article {pmid30774719, year = {2019}, author = {Jorgenson, AK and Fiske, S and Hubacek, K and Li, J and McGovern, T and Rick, T and Schor, JB and Solecki, W and York, R and Zycherman, A}, title = {Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e554}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.554}, pmid = {30774719}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {This article provides a review of recent anthropological, archeological, geographical, and sociological research on anthropogenic drivers of climate change, with a particular focus on drivers of carbon emissions, mitigation and adaptation. The four disciplines emphasize cultural, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social-structural factors to be important drivers of and responses to climate change. Each of these disciplines has unique perspectives and makes noteworthy contributions to our shared understanding of anthropogenic drivers, but they also complement one another and contribute to integrated, multidisciplinary frameworks. The article begins with discussions of research on temporal dimensions of human drivers of carbon emissions, highlighting interactions between long-term and near-term drivers. Next, descriptions of the disciplines' contributions to the understanding of mitigation and adaptation are provided. It concludes with a summary of key lessons offered by the four disciplines as well as suggestions for future research. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change.}, } @article {pmid30772557, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, S and Zhang, J and Yue, T and Jing, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change on urban rainwater harvesting systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {262-274}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.135}, pmid = {30772557}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is promoted in many cities (e.g., Beijing and Shenzhen) as a climate change adaptation measure to relieve urban water supply and drainage pressures. In this study, the impacts of future climate change on water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems at cities across four climatic zones of China are investigated. A downscaling technique based on the Climate Generator is evaluated and employed to generate future (2020-2050) daily rainfall data. Performance indices of RWH systems (i.e., water saving efficiency, reliability, and stormwater capture efficiency) calculated using both the future and historical (1985-2015) daily rainfall data are compared. Two water demand scenarios (i.e., lawn irrigation and toilet flushing) are included in the investigation. The water saving performance is positively affected by the increases in future rainfall at the four cities, while the stormwater capture performance is negatively affected as a larger tank size is required to achieve a desired stormwater capture efficiency in the future period. The responses of water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems to climate change are varying with not only the system dimensions (i.e., storage capacity and catchment area), but also the water demand scenarios and locations. RWH systems with larger storage capacity for larger water demand scenarios at humid and semi-humid cities is expected to be more resilient to climate change. The various changing patterns of the performance indices highlight the importance of incorporating climate change in the design of RWH systems. Location-specific adaptive adjustments (e.g., adjusting tank sizes, catchment areas or water demand rates) need to be adopted so that RWH systems can sustainably meet water saving and stormwater control requirements under future climate conditions.}, } @article {pmid30771627, year = {2018}, author = {Perera, F and Ashrafi, A and Kinney, P and Mills, D}, title = {Towards a fuller assessment of benefits to children's health of reducing air pollution and mitigating climate change due to fossil fuel combustion.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {55-72}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.12.016}, pmid = {30771627}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Fossil fuel combustion by-products, including particulate matter (PM2.5), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), are a significant threat to children's health and equality. Various policies to reduce emissions have been implemented to reduce air pollution and mitigate climate change, with sizeable estimated health and economic benefits. However, only a few adverse outcomes in children have been considered, resulting in an undercounting of the benefits to this vulnerable population.

OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to expand the suite of child health outcomes addressed by programs to assess health and economic benefits, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), by identifying concentration-response (C-R) functions for six outcomes related to PM2.5, NO2, PAH, and/or PM10: preterm birth (PTB), low birthweight (LBW), autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, IQ reduction, and the development of childhood asthma.

METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the literature published between January 1, 2000 and April 30, 2018 to identify relevant peer-reviewed case-control and cohort studies and meta-analyses. In some cases meta-analyses were available that provided reliable C-R functions and we assessed their consistency with subsequent studies. Otherwise, we reviewed all eligible studies published between our search dates.

RESULTS: For each pollutant and health outcome, we present the characteristics of each selected study. We distinguish between C-R functions for endpoints having a causal or likely relationship (PTB, LBW, autism, asthma development) with the pollutants for incorporation into primary analyses and endpoints having a suggestive causal relationship with the pollutants (IQ reduction, ADHD) for secondary analyses.

CONCLUSION: We have identified C-R functions for a number of adverse health outcomes in children associated with air pollutants largely from fossil fuel combustion. Their incorporation into expanded assessments of health benefits of clean air and climate mitigation policies will provide an important incentive for preventive action.}, } @article {pmid30765124, year = {2019}, author = {Mendenhall, E and Singer, M}, title = {The global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30310-1}, pmid = {30765124}, issn = {1474-547X}, } @article {pmid30763854, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, C and Liu, L and Ma, D and He, K and Xu, YP}, title = {Assessing responses of hydrological processes to climate change over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on resampling of future climate scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {737-752}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.013}, pmid = {30763854}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {With global warming, hydrological regimes in the headwater basins of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have significantly changed. Investigating the responses of hydrological processes to climate change in TP has become more and more important to make robust strategies for water resources management. However, using just a few GCMs may constrain the uncertainty in assessment of climate impacts. Therefore, a framework is proposed in this study to generate ensemble climate change scenarios and then investigate changes of hydrological processes under climate change in the upper reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River basin (UYZR) and Lancang River basin (ULR). Firstly, the Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) is used to generate an ensemble of future climate change scenarios by resampling change factors of meteorological variables from 18 GCMs under emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The inherent dependence structures of change factors, i.e. the correlations of change factors among 12 months for different meteorological variables, are also considered in ensembles. Secondly, the HBV hydrological model coupled with a degree-day snowmelt model is applied to explore the potential change of runoff in the future period 2041-2070. Results show that: 1) the resampling method is effective and can provide a wide ensemble of climate change scenarios. 2) Precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the UYZR and ULR basins are expected to increase under the two scenarios, particularly under RCP8.5. 3) The total runoff also shows a moderately upward trend in two basins, both mainly due to increased precipitation. In the UYZR basin, fast runoff accounts for a larger proportion in total runoff than slow runoff, while in ULR, both almost play the same role in total runoff. Furthermore, snowmelt-induced runoff in both basins would be less and rainfall-induced runoff will probably become more important in the future.}, } @article {pmid30761418, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, Y and Jiang, J and Ye, B and Zhang, Y and Yan, J}, title = {Addressing climate change through a market mechanism: a comparative study of the pilot emission trading schemes in China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00258-x}, pmid = {30761418}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {71803074//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71603110//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71771130//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 201506340061//China Scholarship Council/ ; G01296001//Southern University of Science and Technology/ ; 2017B030301012//Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control/ ; }, abstract = {The questions of how to mitigate climate change and its impact on human health are currently high on the Chinese agenda for future development. The emission trading scheme (ETS) has become one of China's most important instruments to address climate change through a market mechanism. In the wake of the evolution from regional pilots to a nationwide scheme, it is inevitable to be confronted with tremendous political-economic-institutional challenges. To facilitate a smooth start-up of the upcoming nationwide ETS, this study provides a systematic overview of seven ETS pilots, involving the detailed comparison of ETS design and the in-depth evaluation of market performance, both internal and external performance, based on trading data. Then, the achievements and deficiencies of seven ETS pilots are summarized, several challenges for the current time are discussed, and policy proposals for China's national-level ETS are navigated further coupled with international experience. This study finds that China's ETS pilots, from the short-term perspective, are successful, especially in the reinforcement of China's capacity to develop a market-based scheme in an economy that still cherishes many non-market endowments. However, deficiencies lie in both the internal and external market performance, such as the carbon price lacking a signal function, insufficient incentives for compliance, too low market liquidity, and much too high market fragmentation. Moreover, the retrospective examination of China's ETS pilots suggests that a nationwide ETS should at least be based on an extension of the cap duration from single year to several years, uniform rules on monitoring/reporting/verification and allowance allocation, and the improvement of institutional foundation.}, } @article {pmid30760830, year = {2019}, author = {Watanabe, TK and Watanabe, T and Yamazaki, A and Pfeiffer, M and Claereboudt, MR}, title = {Oman coral δ18O seawater record suggests that Western Indian Ocean upwelling uncouples from the Indian Ocean Dipole during the global-warming hiatus.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1887}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38429-y}, pmid = {30760830}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {JP25257207//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 17H04708//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, abstract = {The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean that has intensified with 20th century global-warming. However, instrumental data shows a global-warming hiatus between the late-1990s and 2015. It is presently not clear how the global-warming hiatus affects modes of climate variability such as the IOD, and their basin-wide ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. Here, we present a 26-year long, biweekly record of Sr/Ca and δ18O from a Porites coral drilled in the Gulf of Oman. Sea surface temperature (SSTanom) is calculated from Sr/Ca ratios, and seawater δ18O (δ18Osw-anom) is estimated by subtracting the temperature component from coral δ18O. Our δ18Osw-anom record reveals a significant regime shift in 1999, towards lower mean δ18Osw values, reflecting intensified upwelling in the western Indian Ocean. Prior to the 1999 regime shift, our SSTanom and δ18Osw-anom show a clear IOD signature, with higher values in the summer of positive-IOD years due to weakened upwelling. The IOD signature in SSTanom and δ18Osw-anom disappears with the overall intensification of upwelling after the 1999 regime shift. The inferred increase in upwelling is likely driven by an intensified Walker circulation during the global-warming hiatus. Upwelling in the Western Indian Ocean uncouples from the IOD.}, } @article {pmid30760801, year = {2019}, author = {Nakabayashi, A and Yamakita, T and Nakamura, T and Aizawa, H and Kitano, YF and Iguchi, A and Yamano, H and Nagai, S and Agostini, S and Teshima, KM and Yasuda, N}, title = {The potential role of temperate Japanese regions as refugia for the coral Acropora hyacinthus in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1892}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38333-5}, pmid = {30760801}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {17H04996//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, abstract = {As corals in tropical regions are threatened by increasing water temperatures, poleward range expansion of reef-building corals has been observed, and temperate regions are expected to serve as refugia in the face of climate change. To elucidate the important indicators of the sustainability of coral populations, we examined the genetic diversity and connectivity of the common reef-building coral Acropora hyacinthus along the Kuroshio Current, including recently expanded (<50 years) populations. Among the three cryptic lineages found, only one was distributed in temperate regions, which could indicate the presence of Kuroshio-associated larval dispersal barriers between temperate and subtropical regions, as shown by oceanographic simulations as well as differences in environmental factors. The level of genetic diversity gradually decreased towards the edge of the species distribution. This study provides an example of the reduced genetic diversity in recently expanded marginal populations, thus indicating the possible vulnerability of these populations to environmental changes. This finding underpins the importance of assessing the genetic diversity of newly colonized populations associated with climate change for conservation purposes. In addition, this study highlights the importance of pre-existing temperate regions as coral refugia, which has been rather underappreciated in local coastal management.}, } @article {pmid30759571, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, T and Bao, A and Jiapaer, G and Guo, H and Zheng, G and Jiang, L and Chang, C and Tuerhanjiang, L}, title = {Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on arid and semiarid grasslands in Central Asia during 1982-2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {1311-1325}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.058}, pmid = {30759571}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In recent decades, climate change and human activities have severely affected grasslands in Central Asia. Grassland regulation and sustainability in this region require an accurate assessment of the effects of these two factors on grasslands. Based on the abrupt change analysis, linear regression analysis and net primary productivity (NPP), the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland ecosystems in Central Asia during 1982-2015 were studied. Further, the potential NPP (NPPP) was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and the human-induced NPP (NPPH), which was the difference between NPPP and actual NPP, were used to differentiate the effects of climate change and human activities on the grassland ecosystems, respectively. The grassland NPP showed a slight upward trend during 1982-2015, while two obvious decreasing periods were found before and after the mutation year 1999. Additionally, the main driving forces of the grassland NPP variation for the two periods were different. During 1982-1999, climate change was the main factor controlling grassland NPP increase or decrease, and 84.7% of grasslands experienced NPP reduction, while the regions experiencing an increase represented only 15.3% of the total area. During 1999-2015, the areas of increasing and decreasing grassland NPP represented 41.6% and 58.4% of the total area, respectively. After 1999, human activities became the main driving force of the NPP reduction, whereas climate change facilitated grassland restoration. The five Central Asian countries showed widely divergent relative impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP changes. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, anthropogenic decreases in grassland NPP intensified during 1982-2015, while the negative anthropogenic effects on grassland NPP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan moderated. Further analysis identified precipitation as the major climatic factor affecting grassland variation in most areas of Central Asia and overgrazing as the main form of human activity accelerating grassland degradation. This study improves the understanding of the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on grasslands in Central Asia.}, } @article {pmid30759551, year = {2019}, author = {Flores, JM and Gil-Lebrero, S and Gámiz, V and Rodríguez, MI and Ortiz, MA and Quiles, FJ}, title = {Effect of the climate change on honey bee colonies in a temperate Mediterranean zone assessed through remote hive weight monitoring system in conjunction with exhaustive colonies assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {1111-1119}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.004}, pmid = {30759551}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Honey bee plays the leading role in the pollination of many wild plants and crops, but it currently faces serious threats. Climate change is pointed out as one of the causes of the colony collapse disorder. Understanding the response of bees to the new climate change scenario is essential to face this challenge. Especially in the most sensitive bioclimatic zones, such as the Mediterranean areas. In this work, we remotely monitored the weight of the hives with an electronic device during a flowering period in the beekeeping seasons of 2016 and 2017, marked by extreme episodes of drought and high temperatures. We assessed bee colonies at the beginning, middle and at the end of the flowering as well, considering the adult bee population, bee brood, and pollen and honey reserves. The results showed that the flowering was reduced in three weeks in 2017 in comparison to 2016. In those years weight gain was 7.67 kg and 18.92 kg, respectively. The adverse conditions affected the evolution of the populations of bees and the reserves of honey and pollen in a meaningful way, increasing food stress for bees. It also affected the pollen spectrum and commercial characteristics of honey. Our results provide objective data about the effect of climate change on bees, but it also proved the relevant role of bees in the study of changes in the environment.}, } @article {pmid30754664, year = {2019}, author = {Ho, HC and Abbas, S and Yang, J and Zhu, R and Wong, MS}, title = {Spatiotemporal Prediction of Increasing Winter Perceived Temperature across a Sub-Tropical City for Sustainable Planning and Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16030497}, pmid = {30754664}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate variability has been documented as being key to influencing human wellbeing across cities as it is linked to mortality and illness due to changes in the perceived weather cycle. Many studies have investigated the impact of summer temperature on human health and have proposed mitigation strategies for summer heat waves. However, sub-tropical cities are still experiencing winter temperature variations. Increasing winter perceived temperature through the decades may soon affect city wellbeing, due to a larger temperature change between normal winter days and extreme cold events, which may cause higher health risk due to lack of adaptation and self-preparedness. Therefore, winter perceived temperature should also be considered and integrated in urban sustainable planning. This study has integrated the increasing winter perceived temperature as a factor for developing spatiotemporal protocols for mitigating the adverse impact of climate change. Land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite images and building data extracted from aerial photographs were used to simulate the adjusted wind chill equivalent temperature (AWCET) particularly for sub-tropical scenarios between 1990 and 2010 of the Kowloon Peninsula, Hong Kong. Compared with perceived temperature based on the representative station located at the headquarters of the Hong Kong Observatory, the temperature of half the study area in the Kowloon Peninsula has raised by 1.5 °C. The areas with less green space and less public open space in 2010 show higher relative temperatures. Socioeconomically deprived areas (e.g., areas with lower median monthly income) may suffer more from this scenario, but not all types of socioeconomic disparities are associated with poor sustainable planning. Based on our results and the "no-one left behind" guideline from the United Nations, climate change mitigation should be conducted by targeting socioeconomic neighborhoods more than just aging communities.}, } @article {pmid30745128, year = {2019}, author = {Li, G and Sun, S and Han, J and Yan, J and Liu, W and Wei, Y and Lu, N and Sun, Y}, title = {Corrigendum to "Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015" [Sci. Total Environ. 660 (2019) 177-187].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.396}, pmid = {30745128}, issn = {1879-1026}, } @article {pmid30743953, year = {2019}, author = {Ker Rault, PA and Koundouri, P and Akinsete, E and Ludwig, R and Huber-Garcia, V and Tsani, S and Acuna, V and Kalogianni, E and Luttik, J and Kok, K and Skoulikidis, N and Froebrich, J}, title = {Down scaling of climate change scenarii to river basin level: A transdisciplinary methodology applied to Evrotas river basin, Greece.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {1623-1632}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.369}, pmid = {30743953}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mediterranean region is anticipated to be (or, already is) one of the hot spots for climate change, where freshwater ecosystems are under threat from the effects of multiple stressors. Climate change is impacting natural resources and on the functioning of Ecosystem Services. The challenges about modelling climate change impact on water cycle in general and specifically on socio-economic dynamics of the society leads to an exponential amount of results that restrain interpretation and added value of forecasting at local level. One of the main challenges when dealing with climate change projections is the quantification of uncertainties. Modellers might have limited information or understanding from local river catchment management practices and from other disciplines with relevant insights on socio-economic and environmental complex relationship between biosphere and human based activities. Current General Circulation Models cannot fulfil the requirements of high spatial detail required for water management policy. This article reports an innovative transdisciplinary methodology to down scale Climate Change scenarii to river basin level with a special focus on the development of climate change narrative under SSP5-RCP8.5 combination called Myopic scenario and SSP1-RCP4.5 combination called Sustainable scenario. Local Stakeholder participative workshop in the Evrotas river basin provide perception of expected changes on water demand under to two developed scenario narratives.}, } @article {pmid30743919, year = {2019}, author = {Grillakis, MG}, title = {Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {1245-1255}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30743919}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Droughts are among the costliest natural disasters. They affect wide regions and large numbers of people worldwide by tampering with water availability and agricultural production. In this research, soil moisture drought trends are assessed for Europe using the Soil Moisture Index (SMI) estimated on Joint UK Land Environment Simulator simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways, the RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Results show that SMI drought conditions are expected to exacerbate in Europe with substantial differences among regions. Eastern Europe and Mediterranean regions are found to be the most affected. Spatially and temporally contiguous regions that exhibit SMI of Severe and Extreme index categories are identified as distinct drought events and are assessed for their characteristics. It is shown that even under strong emissions mitigation, these events are expected to increase in occurrence (22% to 123%), while their characteristics will become more unfavorable. Results indicate increase in their spatial extend (between 23% and 46%) and their duration (between 16% and 48%) depending on the period and the scenario. Additional analysis was performed for the exceptionally wide-area (over 106 km2) severe and extreme soil moisture drought events that are expected to drastically increase comparing to the recent past. Projections show that those events are expected to happen between 11 and 28 times more frequently depending on the scenario and the period with a 59% to 246% larger duration. These findings indicate that even applying strong mitigation measures, agricultural drought risk in Europe is expected to become higher than our present experience.}, } @article {pmid30743841, year = {2018}, author = {Shao, P and He, H and Zhang, X and Xie, H and Bao, X and Liang, C}, title = {Responses of microbial residues to simulated climate change in a semiarid grassland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1286-1291}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.055}, pmid = {30743841}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Microbial residues play important role in regulating soil carbon (C) turnover and stability, but the responses of microbial residues to climate change are neglected. In this study, a 5-year field experiment that simulated two climate change factors (precipitation and warming) was performed to examine microbial residue changes in a semiarid grassland, with water limitation. Both the contents of total amino sugars (a biomarker of microbial residues) and glucosamine (a biomarker of fungal residues) increased significantly with increased precipitation and decreased under warming, whereas neither increased precipitation nor warming influenced the content of muramic acid (a biomarker of bacterial residues). These findings clarified the role of fungal residues in determining the response of microbial residues to altered water availability and plant productivity induced by increased precipitation and elevated temperature. Interestingly, microbial residues had a much greater response to climate change than total soil C, implying that soil C composition and stability altered prior to soil C storage and simultaneously slowed down the change of soil C pool. Integrating microbial residues into current climate-C models is expected to enable the models to more accurately evaluate soil C responses to climate regimes in semiarid grasslands.}, } @article {pmid30743113, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, B and Gao, X and Ma, J and Jiao, Z and Xiao, J and Hayat, MA and Wang, H}, title = {Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {203-214}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.301}, pmid = {30743113}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are two important mosquito species which transmit various infectious arbovirus diseases represented mainly by dengue fever. These two species of mosquito have a wide range of distribution and strong transfer capacity. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of vectors in wider geographical areas. Based on observed occurrence records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and high-resolution environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, a Maxent niche modeling approach was adopted to model the current and future distribution of both species in Mainland China. Our models provide predictions of suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios up to the 2050s. Both species were predicted to expand their niche range to varying degrees under future climate scenarios. Aedes aegypti was modeled to expand its habitat from Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hainan to Fujian, Jiangxi and Guizhou. Aedes albopictus was modeled to increase magnitude of distribution within its present range of northern, southwestern and southeastern coastal areas of Mainland China. Area and population exposed to mosquitoes are predicted to increase significantly. Environmental variables that have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes are also revealed by our model. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological studies and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.}, } @article {pmid30743110, year = {2019}, author = {Tal, A}, title = {Letter to the editor regarding Wine et al. (2019): Lake Kinneret and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {175-176}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.371}, pmid = {30743110}, issn = {1879-1026}, } @article {pmid30742734, year = {2019}, author = {Vasconcellos, MM and Colli, GR and Weber, JN and Ortiz, EM and Rodrigues, MT and Cannatella, DC}, title = {Isolation by instability: Historical climate change shapes population structure and genomic divergence of treefrogs in the Neotropical Cerrado savanna.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15045}, pmid = {30742734}, issn = {1365-294X}, abstract = {Although the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on the diversification of the tropical biota was once dismissed, increasing evidence suggests that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations greatly affected the distribution and population divergence of tropical organisms. Landscape genomic analyses coupled with paleoclimatic distribution models provide a powerful way to understand the consequences of past climate changes on the present-day tropical biota. Using genome-wide SNP data and mitochondrial DNA, combined with projections of the species distribution across the late Quaternary until the present, we evaluate the effect of paleoclimatic shifts on the genetic structure and population differentiation of Hypsiboas lundii, a treefrog endemic to the South American Cerrado savanna. Our results show a recent and strong genetic divergence in H. lundii across the Cerrado landscape, yielding four genetic clusters that do not seem congruent with any current physical barrier to gene flow. Isolation by distance (IBD) explains some of the population differentiation, but we also find strong support for past climate changes promoting range shifts and structuring populations even in the presence of IBD. Post-Pleistocene population persistence in four main areas of historical stable climate in the Cerrado seems to have played a major role establishing the present genetic structure of this treefrog. This pattern is consistent with a model of reduced gene-flow in areas with high climatic instability promoting isolation of populations, defined here as "isolation by instability", highlighting the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations structuring populations in tropical savannas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30742109, year = {2019}, author = {Brun, P and Stamieszkin, K and Visser, AW and Licandro, P and Payne, MR and Kiørboe, T}, title = {Climate change has altered zooplankton-fuelled carbon export in the North Atlantic.}, journal = {Nature ecology & evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0780-3}, pmid = {30742109}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Marine plankton have been conspicuously affected by recent climate change, responding with profound spatial relocations and shifts in the timing of their seasonal occurrence. These changes directly affect the global carbon cycle by altering the transport of organic material from the surface ocean to depth, with consequences that remain poorly understood. We investigated how distributional and abundance changes of copepods, the dominant group of zooplankton, have affected biogenic carbon cycling. We used trait-based, mechanistic models to estimate the magnitude of carbon transported downward through sinking faecal pellets, daily vertical migration and seasonal hibernation at depth. From such estimates for over 200,000 community observations in the northern North Atlantic we found carbon flux increased along the northwestern boundary of the study area and decreased in the open northern North Atlantic during the past 55 years. These changes in export were primarily associated with changes in copepod biomass, driven by shifting distributions of abundant, large-bodied species. Our findings highlight how recent climate change has affected downward carbon transport by altering copepod community structure and demonstrate how carbon fluxes through plankton communities can be mechanistically implemented in next-generation biogeochemical models with size-structured representations of zooplankton communities.}, } @article {pmid30740614, year = {2019}, author = {Rabaiotti, D and Woodroffe, R}, title = {Coping with climate change: limited behavioral responses to hot weather in a tropical carnivore.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-018-04329-1}, pmid = {30740614}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {NE/L002485/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely accepted to be one of the greatest threats to species globally. Identifying the species most at risk is, therefore, a conservation priority. Some species have the capacity to adapt to rising temperatures through changing their phenology, behavior, distribution, or physiology, and, therefore, may be more likely to persist under rising temperatures. Recent findings suggest that the African wild dog Lycaon pictus may be impacted by climate change, since reproductive success is consistently lower when pup-rearing coincides with periods of high ambient temperature. We used GPS collars, combined with generalized linear mixed-effects models, to assess wild dogs' potential to adapt to high ambient temperatures through flexible timing of hunting behavior. On days with higher maximum temperatures, wild dogs showed lower daytime activity and greater nocturnal activity, although nocturnal activity did not fully balance the decrease in daytime activity, particularly during the denning period. Increases in nocturnal activity were confined mainly to moonlit nights, and were seldom observed when packs were raising pups. Our findings suggest that nocturnal activity helps this cursorial hunter to cope with high daytime temperatures. However, wild dogs appear not to use this coping strategy when they are raising pups, suggesting that their resource needs may not be fulfilled during the pup-rearing period. Given that moonlight availability-which will not change as the climate changes-constrains wild dogs' nocturnal activity, the species may have insufficient behavioral plasticity to mitigate increasing diurnal temperatures. These findings raise concerns about climate change impacts on this endangered species, and highlight the need for behavior to be considered when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30739851, year = {2019}, author = {Ma, X and Zhao, C and Yan, W and Zhao, X}, title = {Influences of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios on water use efficiency dynamics in the sandy areas of northern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {161-174}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.402}, pmid = {30739851}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in hydrometeorology study to reveal the links between carbon-water cycles in sandy ecosystems which are highly sensitive to climate change and can readily reflect the effects of it. In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify the regional impacts of 0.5 °C of additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Using the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and Advection-Aridity (AA) models with global warming values of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above preindustrial levels from Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) datasets, we conducted a new set of climate simulations to assess the effects of climate on WUE (the ratio of net primary productivity (NPP) to actual evapotranspiration (ETa)) in different sandy land types (mobile sandy land, MSL; semimobile/semifixed sandy land, SMSF; and fixed sandy land, FSL) during the period of baseline (1986-2005) and future (2006-2100). The spatiotemporal patterns of ETa, NPP, and WUE mostly showed increasing trends; the value of WUE decreased (6.40%) only in MSL with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. Meteorological and vegetation factors determined the variations in WUE. With warming, only the correlation between precipitation and WUE decreased in the three sandy land types, and the leaf area index (LAI) increased with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. The desertification degree comprehensively reflects the linkages among the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), LAI and WUE. Simulation results indicated the sandy area extent could potential increase by 20 × 104 km2 per decade on average during 2016-2047 and that the increase could be gradual (2.60 × 104 km2 per decade) after 2050 (2050-2100). These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global mean temperature change to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and can help identify the risk of desertification with an additional 0.5 °C of warming.}, } @article {pmid30739158, year = {2019}, author = {Berman, A}, title = {An overview of heat stress relief with global warming in perspective.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01680-7}, pmid = {30739158}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {not required//none/ ; }, abstract = {Global warming seems more probable, whether as gradual warming or increased frequency of warmer episodes. The productivity of cattle in temperate countries will decline unless counteracting steps are adopted. The probability of pre-emptive breeding for maintaining temperate breed performance coupled with heat stress tolerance is too low to be adopted for counteracting warming. The expected warming will mostly involve temperature increases. These will indirectly affect radiant heat gain in animals owing to reduced radiant heat dissipation from the body by convective heat loss, which results in an increased sensitivity to incoming radiant heat at higher air temperatures. These necessitate an emphasis on increasing convective heat loss by structure design and forced air flow by fans. Convective heat loss diminishes with increasing air temperatures. Evaporative heat loss remains the alternative. Evaporative cooling of the ambient requires partial enclosing of the space surrounding the animals and is limited by the humidity in ambient air. An alternative was developed of coupling forced ventilation with wetting of animal surface. The exchange of ambient air flowing on animal surface makes the evaporation practically independent of air humidity and the loss of heat from animal surface practically independent of the surface to air temperature gradient. The coupling of forced ventilation with wetting combination may be attained in various parts of the dairy farm, the holding area of the milking parlour, the feeding trip and the resting area. Each of these requires differing structural and technological adaptations. Climate and farming systems vary between locations which require specific solutions.}, } @article {pmid30739151, year = {2019}, author = {Balasubramanyam, V and Wilhelm Stanis, S and Morgan, M and Ojewola, O}, title = {Climate Change Communication in the Midwestern United States: Perceptions of State Park Interpreters.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01142-1}, pmid = {30739151}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {IIA-1355406//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Parks and protected areas can be ideal settings for climate change communication since many visitors have an affinity for natural and cultural settings, and an interest in resource protection. However, climate-based education efforts in the Midwestern United States may need a slightly different approach since this region lacks obvious indicators, such as sea level rise and melting glaciers. Interpretation, an informal communication process designed to transmit scientific information to visitors in leisure-based settings, could be a useful strategy for engaging visitors in climate change discussions. Few studies have assessed perceptions of interpreters on this topic, much less, their willingness to communicate such information. To address this issue, a mixed methods approach (surveys, interviews, photovoice) was used to examine interpreters' perceptions of climate change and its impacts in Missouri State Park and Historic Sites. Although nearly 70% of interpreters were either alarmed or concerned about climate change, many of them were unsure about its causation. Interpreters report observing impacts such as flooding, earlier plant blooming, high temperatures, extreme weather, and invasive species, but were uncertain about attributing these impacts to climate change. Interpreters did not believe that visitors would be responsive to climate-based education per se but thought the topic could be addressed in pre-existing programs and activities. Rather than discussing complex science with visitors, interpreters felt more comfortable with conveying the significance of resources at their sites. Implications from this study include acknowledging multiple viewpoints, framing strategic messages, and developing place-based educational materials.}, } @article {pmid30738263, year = {2019}, author = {Mukul, SA and Alamgir, M and Sohel, MSI and Pert, PL and Herbohn, J and Turton, SM and Khan, MSI and Munim, SA and Reza, AHMA and Laurance, WF}, title = {Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {663}, number = {}, pages = {830-840}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383}, pmid = {30738263}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, } @article {pmid30737721, year = {2019}, author = {Gitea, MA and Gitea, D and Tit, DM and Purza, L and Samuel, AD and Bungău, S and Badea, GE and Aleya, L}, title = {Orchard management under the effects of climate change: implications for apple, plum, and almond growing.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-04214-1}, pmid = {30737721}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The authors analyzed certain species and varieties of fruit tree in which applied crop technology is used and also undergoes the effects of climate change. The aim is to extend productive crop varieties, resistant to disease and pests, in order to obtain superior yields. The research was conducted in orchards located in northwestern Romania (on 8.59 ha), intensively cultivated with apple, plum, and almond species. The blooming period of the species and fruit production was studied in 2009, the first year of the farm's commercial production, and then compared to figures from 2016 to see the changes that occurred. Climatic conditions were studied throughout the period of existence of the farm (2002-2016). To determine the influence of the climatic factor on the blooming and production periods, respectively, every year is considered having pre-blooming, blooming, and ripening periods. It was found that climate change influences the annual biological cycle of the trees: the vegetative rest period of the trees shortens, the tree vegetation begins earlier in the spring, and the blooming period is advanced by as much as 10 days compared to normal cultivated varieties. All these factors have direct repercussions on the quantity of production.}, } @article {pmid30736916, year = {2019}, author = {Fond, G and Masson, M and Lançon, C and Auquier, P and Boyer, L}, title = {[Psychiatry and global warming].}, journal = {L'Encephale}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.encep.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30736916}, issn = {0013-7006}, } @article {pmid30731410, year = {2019}, author = {Liao, X and Xu, W and Zhang, J and Li, Y and Tian, Y}, title = {Global exposure to rainstorms and the contribution rates of climate change and population change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {663}, number = {}, pages = {644-653}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.290}, pmid = {30731410}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Quantifying global population exposure to rainstorms is a key component of population risk assessments for rainstorms and induced floods. Based on daily precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP dataset, rainfall from rainstorms is first calculated by a multi-model ensemble method for four periods from 1986 to 2100. Combined with population data from the SSP2 scenario, the global population exposure to rainstorms is then calculated and analyzed. Finally, the contribution rates of climate change effect, population change effect, and joint change effect on exposure change are quantitatively assessed. The results showed that (1) Population exposure to rainstorms shows a linear upward trend from base period to the late 21st century period in most regions, and the mid-21st century period compared with base period has the fastest rate of increase. (2) The spatial patterns of population exposure to rainstorms are very similar for the four periods and the areas with high exposure are mainly distributed in Asia, population exposure of Africa is gradually increasing. The countries with high exposure show little volatility, especially the top eight countries. (3) The change in total exposure is mainly due to population change. Based on the composition of the total exposure change for each country, the number of countries whose climate change effect is greater than that of population change is gradually increasing, and this number reaches more than a quarter of the total when the late 21st century period is compared with the mid-21st century period.}, } @article {pmid30729375, year = {2019}, author = {Shahvari, N and Khalilian, S and Mosavi, SH and Mortazavi, SA}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on water resources and crop yield: a case study of Varamin plain basin, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {3}, pages = {134}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7266-x}, pmid = {30729375}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {This research evaluated climate change impacts on water resources using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) models under representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6, RCP 8.5). First, drought intensity was calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the period 1987-2016. Then, the coefficients of precipitation as well as minimum and maximum temperature changes were simulated as SWAT model inputs. The results revealed that temperature will rise in future periods and the precipitation rate will be changed consequently. Then, changes in runoff during periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were simulated by introducing downscaled results to SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated by SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedures (SWAT-CUP). Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.57 and 0.54) and R2 determination coefficients (0.65 and 0.63) were obtained for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results showed that runoff will rise in fall and spring while it will drop in winter and summer throughout future periods under all three scenarios. Such seasonal shifts in runoff levels result from climate change consequences in the forms of temperature rise, snowmelt, altered precipitation pattern, etc. Future-period evapotranspiration will rise under all three scenarios with a maximum increase in the period 2070-2100 under RCP 8.5 scenario. Additionally, rainfed crop yields will decline without considerable changes in irrigated and horticultural crop yields.}, } @article {pmid30728622, year = {2019}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Prüss-Ustün, A}, title = {Climate change, air pollution and noncommunicable diseases.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {160-161}, doi = {10.2471/BLT.18.224295}, pmid = {30728622}, issn = {1564-0604}, } @article {pmid30728514, year = {2019}, author = {Nowogrodzki, A}, title = {How climate change might affect tea.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {566}, number = {7742}, pages = {S10-S11}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00399-0}, pmid = {30728514}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30726279, year = {2019}, author = {Le, PVV and Kumar, P and Ruiz, MO and Mbogo, C and Muturi, EJ}, title = {Predicting the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on malaria in coastal Kenya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e0211258}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211258}, pmid = {30726279}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios. Under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO2], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO2] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density.

CONCLUSIONS: Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO2] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.}, } @article {pmid30726183, year = {2019}, author = {Pan, Y and Opgenhaffen, M and Van Gorp, B}, title = {Negotiating climate change: A frame analysis of COP21 in British, American, and Chinese news media.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662518823969}, doi = {10.1177/0963662518823969}, pmid = {30726183}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Climate negotiations have increasingly resonated with global governance and world power relations. However, media studies of climate change have paid relatively less attention to media frames of the problem solving. This study addresses this issue by examining the media coverage of COP21 from three countries that have considerable influence on climate politics: the United Kingdom, the United States, and China. By applying an inductive frame analysis, the study identified 10 media frames embedded in the discussions on climate negotiations. A deductive analysis further assessed the prevalence of these frames. The findings suggest that the frames were significantly influenced by the values of the established and emerging powers in the international policy area. The British and American media upheld the underlying norms that have long underpinned the existing Western-led order, while Chinese media coverage manifested a rising power in need of world recognition.}, } @article {pmid30721162, year = {2019}, author = {Wellenius, GA and Sheffield, PE}, title = {The US Government Just Published a New Report Detailing the Impacts of Climate Change on Americans: Does it Matter?.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {163-165}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000952}, pmid = {30721162}, issn = {1531-5487}, } @article {pmid30718624, year = {2019}, author = {Liang, P and Wang, X and Sun, H and Fan, Y and Wu, Y and Lin, X and Chang, J}, title = {Forest type and height are important in shaping the altitudinal change of radial growth response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1336}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37823-w}, pmid = {30718624}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {31870430//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 31370620//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Tree radial growth is widely found to respond differently to climate change across altitudinal gradients, but the relative roles of biotic factors (e.g. forest type, height and density) vs. climate gradient remain unclear. We sampled tree rings from 15 plots along a large altitudinal gradient in northeast China, and examined how climate gradient, forest type, height, tree size and density affect: (1) temporal growth variability [mean sensitivity (MS) and standard deviation (SD) of the chronologies], and (2) the relationship of ring width indices (RWI) with historical climate. We used BIC based model selection and variable importance to explore the major drivers of their altitudinal patterns. The results showed that: both growth variability and RWI-climate relationships changed significantly with altitude. Forest height was the most important predictor for altitudinal changes of MS and SD. For RWI-climate relationships, forest type was more important than climate gradient, while height and stem density were weak but necessary predictors. We showed that the altitudinal difference in growth response to climate change cannot be explained by climate gradient alone, and highlight the necessity to examine the influence of biotic factors (which covary with climate across geographic gradient) to better understand forest response to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30718491, year = {2019}, author = {Dutkiewicz, S and Hickman, AE and Jahn, O and Henson, S and Beaulieu, C and Monier, E}, title = {Ocean colour signature of climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {578}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-08457-x}, pmid = {30718491}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Monitoring changes in marine phytoplankton is important as they form the foundation of the marine food web and are crucial in the carbon cycle. Often Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is used to track changes in phytoplankton, since there are global, regular satellite-derived estimates. However, satellite sensors do not measure Chl-a directly. Instead, Chl-a is estimated from remote sensing reflectance (RRS): the ratio of upwelling radiance to the downwelling irradiance at the ocean's surface. Using a model, we show that RRS in the blue-green spectrum is likely to have a stronger and earlier climate-change-driven signal than Chl-a. This is because RRS has lower natural variability and integrates not only changes to in-water Chl-a, but also alterations in other optically important constituents. Phytoplankton community structure, which strongly affects ocean optics, is likely to show one of the clearest and most rapid signatures of changes to the base of the marine ecosystem.}, } @article {pmid30713361, year = {2018}, author = {Levy, G and Vignudelli, S and Gower, J}, title = {Enabling earth observations in support of global, coastal, ocean, and climate change research and monitoring.}, journal = {International journal of remote sensing}, volume = {39}, number = {13}, pages = {4287-4292}, doi = {10.1080/01431161.2018.1464101}, pmid = {30713361}, issn = {0143-1161}, } @article {pmid30712279, year = {2019}, author = {Frauendorf, TC and MacKenzie, RA and Tingley, RW and Frazier, AG and Riney, MH and El-Sabaawi, RW}, title = {Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14584}, pmid = {30712279}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability of these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and b) if using a high temporal (monthly, 4 streams) or a high spatial (annual, 8 streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10-40 fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability of flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30709074, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN}, title = {Climate Change: A Review of a Public Health Opportunity for the Northeast.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {102}, number = {1}, pages = {42-45}, pmid = {30709074}, issn = {2327-2228}, abstract = {[Full article available at http://rimed.org/rimedicaljournal-2019-02.asp].}, } @article {pmid30706600, year = {2019}, author = {Díaz, FP and Latorre, C and Carrasco-Puga, G and Wood, JR and Wilmshurst, JM and Soto, DC and Cole, TL and Gutiérrez, RA}, title = {Multiscale climate change impacts on plant diversity in the Atacama Desert.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14583}, pmid = {30706600}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Comprehending ecological dynamics requires not only knowledge of modern communities but also detailed reconstructions of ecosystem history. Ancient DNA (aDNA) metabarcoding allows biodiversity responses to major climatic change to be explored at different spatial and temporal scales. We extracted aDNA preserved in fossil rodent middens to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in the hyperarid Atacama Desert. By comparing our paleo-informed millennial record with contemporary observations of interannual variations in diversity, we show local plant communities behave differentially at different timescales. In the inter-annual (years to decades) time frame, only annual herbaceous expand and contract their distributional ranges (emerging from persistent seed banks) in response to precipitation, whereas perennials distribution appear to be extraordinarily resilient. In contrast, at longer time scales (thousands of years) many perennial species were displaced up to 1,000 m downslope during pluvial events. Given ongoing and future natural and anthropogenically-induced climate change, our results not only provide baselines for vegetation in the Atacama Desert, but also help to inform how these and other high mountain plant communities may respond to fluctuations of climate in the future. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30705325, year = {2019}, author = {Amélineau, F and Grémillet, D and Harding, AMA and Walkusz, W and Choquet, R and Fort, J}, title = {Arctic climate change and pollution impact little auk foraging and fitness across a decade.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1014}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38042-z}, pmid = {30705325}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {0612504//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 388//Institut Polaire Fran&#x00E7;ais Paul Emile Victor (Institut Fran&#x00E7;ais pour la Recherche et la Technologie Polaire)/ ; GEFNE 41-12//National Geographic Society/ ; }, abstract = {Ongoing global changes apply drastic environmental forcing onto Arctic marine ecosystems, particularly through ocean warming, sea-ice shrinkage and enhanced pollution. To test impacts on arctic marine ecological functioning, we used a 12-year integrative study of little auks (Alle alle), the most abundant seabird in the Atlantic Arctic. We monitored the foraging ecology, reproduction, survival and body condition of breeding birds, and we tested linkages between these biological variables and a set of environmental parameters including sea-ice concentration (SIC) and mercury contamination. Little auks showed substantial plasticity in response to SIC, with deeper and longer dives but less time spent underwater and more time flying when SIC decreased. Their diet also contained less lipid-rich ice-associated prey when SIC decreased. Further, in contrast to former studies conducted at the annual scale, little auk fitness proxies were impacted by environmental changes: Adult body condition and chick growth rate were negatively linked to SIC and mercury contamination. However, no trend was found for adult survival despite high inter-annual variability. Our results suggest that potential benefits of milder climatic conditions in East Greenland may be offset by increasing pollution in the Arctic. Overall, our study stresses the importance of long-term studies integrating ecology and ecotoxicology.}, } @article {pmid30704089, year = {2019}, author = {Raza, A and Razzaq, A and Mehmood, SS and Zou, X and Zhang, X and Lv, Y and Xu, J}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants8020034}, pmid = {30704089}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2017YFD0101701//National Basic Research Program of China (2017YFD0101701) and Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of CAAS./ ; }, abstract = {Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses, which have adverse effects on the agriculture of a region. The land and its agriculture are being affected by climate changes in different ways, e.g., variations in annual rainfall, average temperature, heat waves, modifications in weeds, pests or microbes, global change of atmospheric CO₂ or ozone level, and fluctuations in sea level. The threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. According to some predicted reports, agriculture is considered the most endangered activity adversely affected by climate changes. To date, food security and ecosystem resilience are the most concerning subjects worldwide. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation, before it might affect global crop production drastically. In this review paper, we summarize the causes of climate change, stresses produced due to climate change, impacts on crops, modern breeding technologies, and biotechnological strategies to cope with climate change, in order to develop climate resilient crops. Revolutions in genetic engineering techniques can also aid in overcoming food security issues against extreme environmental conditions, by producing transgenic plants.}, } @article {pmid30701052, year = {2016}, author = {Borcier, E and Charrier, G and Amérand, A and Théron, M and Loizeau, V and Pédron, N and Laroche, J}, title = {Bioenergetic Transcriptomic Responses of European Flounder (Platichthys Flesus) Populations in Contrasted Environments: Impacts of Pollution and Global Warming.}, journal = {Journal of xenobiotics}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {6586}, doi = {10.4081/xeno.2016.6586}, pmid = {30701052}, issn = {2039-4705}, } @article {pmid30703725, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmadalipour, A and Moradkhani, H and Castelletti, A and Magliocca, N}, title = {Future drought risk in Africa: Integrating vulnerability, climate change, and population growth.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {662}, number = {}, pages = {672-686}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.278}, pmid = {30703725}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drought risk refers to the potential losses from hazard imposed by a drought event, and it is generally characterized as a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. In this study, drought risk is assessed at a national level across Africa, and the impacts of climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities on drought risk are investigated. A rigorous framework is implemented to quantify drought vulnerability considering various sectors including economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources. Multi-model and multi-scenario analyses are employed to quantify drought hazard using an ensemble of 10 regional climate models and a multi-scalar drought index. Drought risk is then assessed in each country for 2 climate emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), 3 population scenarios, and 3 vulnerability scenarios during three future periods between 2010 and 2100. Drought risk ratio is quantified, and the role of each component (i.e. hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) is identified, and the associated uncertainties are also characterized. Results show that drought risk is expected to increase in future across Africa with varied rates for different models and scenarios. Although northern African countries indicate aggravating drought hazard, drought risk ratio is found to be highest in central African countries as a consequent of vulnerability and population rise in that region. Results indicate that if no climate change adaptation is implemented, unprecedented drought hazard and risk will occur decades earlier. In addition, controlling population growth is found to be imperative for mitigating drought risk in Africa (even more effective than climate change mitigation), as it improves socioeconomic vulnerability and reduces potential exposure to drought.}, } @article {pmid30701216, year = {2018}, author = {Ganne-Carrié, N}, title = {Alcohol-related liver disease: do weather and daylight level matter or is there a paradoxical good side of global warming?.}, journal = {Translational gastroenterology and hepatology}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {109}, doi = {10.21037/tgh.2018.12.08}, pmid = {30701216}, issn = {2415-1289}, } @article {pmid30700855, year = {2019}, author = {Soultan, A and Wikelski, M and Safi, K}, title = {Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {955}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6}, pmid = {30700855}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category "Least Concern" to "Critically Endangered" or "Extinct" in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.}, } @article {pmid30700377, year = {2019}, author = {Swinburn, BA and Kraak, VI and Allender, S and Atkins, VJ and Baker, PI and Bogard, JR and Brinsden, H and Calvillo, A and De Schutter, O and Devarajan, R and Ezzati, M and Friel, S and Goenka, S and Hammond, RA and Hastings, G and Hawkes, C and Herrero, M and Hovmand, PS and Howden, M and Jaacks, LM and Kapetanaki, AB and Kasman, M and Kuhnlein, HV and Kumanyika, SK and Larijani, B and Lobstein, T and Long, MW and Matsudo, VKR and Mills, SDH and Morgan, G and Morshed, A and Nece, PM and Pan, A and Patterson, DW and Sacks, G and Shekar, M and Simmons, GL and Smit, W and Tootee, A and Vandevijvere, S and Waterlander, WE and Wolfenden, L and Dietz, WH}, title = {The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The Lancet Commission report.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32822-8}, pmid = {30700377}, issn = {1474-547X}, } @article {pmid30699991, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, T and Ren, Z and Zhang, Y and Feng, B and Lin, H and Xiao, J and Zeng, W and Li, X and Li, Z and Rutherford, S and Xu, Y and Lin, S and Nasca, PC and Du, Y and Wang, J and Huang, C and Jia, P and Ma, W}, title = {Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16030376}, pmid = {30699991}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {S2013010014670//the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province/ ; 201616//Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission/ ; 2012CB955503//National Science and Technology Major Program/ ; }, abstract = {(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.}, } @article {pmid30698987, year = {2019}, author = {W Burggren, W}, title = {Inadequacy of Typical Physiological Experimental Protocols For Investigating Consequences of Stochastic Weather Events Emerging From Global Warming.}, journal = {American journal of physiology. Regulatory, integrative and comparative physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1152/ajpregu.00307.2018}, pmid = {30698987}, issn = {1522-1490}, abstract = {Increasingly variable, extreme and non-predictable weather events are predicted to accompany climate change, and such weather events will especially affect temperate, terrestrial environments. Yet, typical protocols in comparative physiology that examine environmental change typically employ simple step-wise changes in the experimental stressor of interest (e.g. temperature, water availability, oxygen, nutrition). Such protocols fall short of mimicking actual natural environments, and may be inadequate for fully exploring the physiological effects of stochastic, extreme weather events. Indeed, numerous studies from the field of thermal biology, especially, indicate non-linear and sometimes counterintuitive findings associated with variable and fluctuating (but rarely truly stochastic) protocols for temperature change. This Perspective suggests that alternative experimental protocols should be employed that go beyond step-wise protocols and even beyond variable protocols employing circadian rhythms, for example, to those that actually embrace non-predictable elements. Such protocols, though admittedly more difficult to implement, are more likely to reveal the capabilities (and, importantly, the limitations) of animals experiencing weather, as distinct from climate. While some possible protocols involving stochasticity are described as examples to stimulate additional thought on experimental design, the overall goal of this Perspective is to encourage comparative physiologists to entertain incorporation of non-predictable experimental conditions as they design future experimental protocols.}, } @article {pmid30698905, year = {2019}, author = {Bruno, D and Belmar, O and Maire, A and Morel, A and Dumont, B and Datry, T}, title = {Structural and functional responses of invertebrate communities to climate change and flow regulation in alpine catchments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14581}, pmid = {30698905}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Understanding and predicting how biological communities respond to climate change is critical for assessing biodiversity vulnerability and guiding conservation efforts. Glacier- and snow-fed rivers are one of the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, and can provide early warning of wider-scale changes. These rivers are frequently used for hydropower production but there is minimal understanding of how biological communities are influenced by climate change in a context of flow regulation. This study sheds light on this issue by disentangling structural (water temperature preference, taxonomic composition, alpha, beta and gamma diversities) and functional (functional traits, diversity, richness, evenness, dispersion and redundancy) effects of climate change in interaction with flow regulation in the Alps. For this, we compared environmental and aquatic invertebrate data collected in the 1970s and 2010s in regulated and unregulated alpine catchments. We hypothesized a replacement of cold-adapted species by warming-tolerant ones, high temporal and spatial turnover in taxa and trait composition, along with reduced taxonomic and functional diversities in consequence of climate change. We expected communities in regulated rivers to respond more drastically due to additive or synergistic effects between flow regulation and climate change. We found divergent structural but convergent functional responses between free-flowing and regulated catchments. Although cold-adapted taxa decreased in both of them, greater colonization and spread of thermophilic species was found in the free-flowing one, resulting in higher spatial and temporal turnover. Since the 1970's, taxonomic diversity increased in the free flowing but decreased in the regulated catchment due to biotic homogenization. Colonization by taxa with new functional strategies (i.e. multivoltine taxa with small body size, resistance forms, aerial dispersion and reproduction by clutches) increased functional diversity but decreased functional redundancy through time. These functional changes could jeopardize the ability of aquatic communities facing intensification of ongoing climate change or new anthropogenic disturbances. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30691890, year = {2019}, author = {Mertenat, A and Diener, S and Zurbrügg, C}, title = {Black Soldier Fly biowaste treatment - Assessment of global warming potential.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {173-181}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2018.11.040}, pmid = {30691890}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {Cities of low and middle-income countries face severe challenges in managing the increasing amount of waste produced, especially the organic fraction. Black Soldier Fly (BSF) biowaste treatment is an attractive treatment option as it offers a solution for waste management while also providing a protein source to help alleviate the rising global demand for animal feed. However, to-date very little information is available on how this technology performs with regard to direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP). This paper presents a study that uses a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to assess the GWP of a BSF waste treatment facility in the case of Indonesia and compares it with respective values for an open windrow composting facility. Direct CH4 and N2O samples were extracted from BSF treatment units and analyzed by gas chromatography. Results show that direct CO2eq emissions are 47 times lower the emissions from composting. Regarding the overall GWP, the LCA shows that composting has double the GWP of BSF treatment facility based on the functional unit of 1 ton of biowaste (wet weight). The main GWP contribution from a BSF facility are from: (1) residue post-composting (69%) and (2) electricity needs and source (up to 55%). Fishmeal production substitution by BSF larvae meal can reduce significantly the GWP (up to 30%). Based on this study, we conclude that BSF biowaste treatment offers an environmentally relevant alternative with very low direct GHG emissions and potentially high GWP reduction. Further research should improve residue post-treatment.}, } @article {pmid30686941, year = {2017}, author = {Sugai, G and Freeman, J and Simonsen, B and La Salle, T and Fixsen, D}, title = {National Climate Change: Doubling Down on Our Precision and Emphasis on Prevention and Behavioral Sciences.}, journal = {Report on emotional & behavioral disorders in youth}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {58-63}, pmid = {30686941}, issn = {1531-5479}, } @article {pmid30688178, year = {2019}, author = {Macdiarmid, JI and Whybrow, S}, title = {Nutrition from a climate change perspective.}, journal = {The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1017/S0029665118002896}, pmid = {30688178}, issn = {1475-2719}, abstract = {Climate change is threatening future global food and nutrition security. Limiting the increase in global temperature to 1·5 °C set out in The Paris Agreement (2015) while achieving nutrient security means overhauling the current food system to create one that can deliver healthy and sustainable diets. To attain this, it is critical to understand the implications for nutrition of actions to mitigate climate change as well as the impacts of climate change on food production and the nutrient composition of foods. It is widely recognised that livestock production has a much greater environmental burden than crop production, and therefore advice is to reduce meat consumption. This has triggered concern in some sectors about a lack of protein in diets, which hence is driving efforts to find protein replacements. However, in most high- and middle-income countries, protein intakes far exceed dietary requirements and it would even if all meat were removed from diets. Reduction in micronutrients should be given more attention when reducing meat. Simply eating less meat does not guarantee healthier or more sustainable diets. Climate change will also affect the type, amount and nutrient quality of food that can be produced. Studies have shown that increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels can reduce the nutrient density of some staple crops, which is of particular concern in low-income countries. Nutrition from a climate change perspective means considering the potential consequences of any climate action on food and nutrition security. In this paper, we discuss these issues from an interdisciplinary perspective.}, } @article {pmid30687988, year = {2019}, author = {Ettinger, AK and Chuine, I and Cook, BI and Dukes, JS and Ellison, AM and Johnston, MR and Panetta, AM and Rollinson, CR and Vitasse, Y and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate?.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13223}, pmid = {30687988}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {NSF DBI 14-01854//National Science Foundation/ ; //Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University/ ; }, abstract = {To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6 ∘ C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1 ∘ C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2 ∘ C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.}, } @article {pmid30682609, year = {2019}, author = {Kriaučiūnienė, J and Virbickas, T and Šarauskienė, D and Jakimavičius, D and Kažys, J and Bukantis, A and Kesminas, V and Povilaitis, A and Dainys, J and Akstinas, V and Jurgelėnaitė, A and Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, D and Tomkevičienė, A}, title = {Fish assemblages under climate change in Lithuanian rivers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {661}, number = {}, pages = {563-574}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.142}, pmid = {30682609}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Alterations of abiotic factors (e.g., river water temperature and discharge) will definitely affect the fundamental processes of aquatic ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of climate change on the structure of fish assemblages in fast-flowing rivers belonging to the catchment of the major Eastern European river, the Nemunas. Five catchments of semi-natural rivers were selected for the study. Projections of abiotic factors were developed for the near (2016-2035) and far future (2081-2100) periods, according to four RCP scenarios and three climate models using the HBV hydrological modelling tool. Fish metric projections were developed based on a multiple regression using spatial data. No significant changes in projections of abiotic and biotic variables are generally expected in the near future. In the far future period, the abiotic factors are projected to change significantly, i.e., river water temperature is going to increase by 4.0-5.1 °C, and river discharge is projected to decrease by 16.7-40.6%, according to RCP8.5. By the end of century, the relative abundance of stenothermal fish is projected to decline from 24 to 51% in the reference period to 0-20% under RCP8.5. Eurythermal fish should benefit from climate change, and their abundance is likely to increase from 16 to 38% in the reference period to 38-65% under RCP8.5. Future alterations of river water temperature will have significantly more influence on the abundance of the analysed fish assemblages than river discharge.}, } @article {pmid30680858, year = {2019}, author = {Rinkevich, B}, title = {Coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue mechanism to mitigate global climate change impacts.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14576}, pmid = {30680858}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic pressures inflict a wide range of profound damages on coral reef ecosystems, reshaping coral reef communities due to their physiological and ecological intolerance to the newly developing environmental conditions. Here I present coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue tool for accelerating adaptive responses to global climate change impacts. The 'evolutionary rescue' power is contingent on the premise that coral chimerism counters the erosion of genetic and phenotypic diversity. Further benefits are gained when flexible chimeric entities alter their somatic constituents following changes in environmental conditions, synergistically presenting the best-fitting combination of their genetic components to endure in a capricious environment, exhibiting always their environmentally-matched physiological characteristics. Chimerism should be considered as an integral part of the ecological engineering toolbox being developed for active reef restoration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30680250, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, G and Qiao, Z}, title = {Climate Change Armor.}, journal = {Cheng shi she ji (2015)}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {50-63}, pmid = {30680250}, issn = {2096-1235}, abstract = {Climate Change Armor is a collection of adaptive flood attenuation mechanisms for protecting newly designed communities from flood events and the eventual impacts of sea level rise. League City, TX is used as an application site. NOAA predicts that sea levels will increase and storm surge will become more frequent along the Texas coast. In the Gulf Coast, sea level projects to rise up to 629 feet by 2100. The Climate Change Armor Toolkit comprises both structural and non-structural mechanisms which are either engineered to block and control heavy floods or rely on natural systems and green infrastructure to attenuate flood waters from frequent storms or hazard flood events. With the application of the Armor Toolkit, 221,921 cubic feet of runoff can be captured, nearly 2,400 new residents are protected, over 3,000 jobs are created, $23 million in physical flood damage can be avoided, and approximately $1.3 billion can be generated in the life cycle benefits of the newly designed community by 2100.}, } @article {pmid30680125, year = {2019}, author = {Li, R}, title = {Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {427-436}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4761}, pmid = {30680125}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change-induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche-based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.}, } @article {pmid30677982, year = {2019}, author = {Garofalo, P and Ventrella, D and Kersebaum, KC and Gobin, A and Trnka, M and Giglio, L and Dubrovský, M and Castellini, M}, title = {Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1186-1208}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.279}, pmid = {30677982}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%; Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend; and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change.}, } @article {pmid30677981, year = {2019}, author = {Li, W and Xu, X and Yao, J and Tanaka, N and Nishimura, O and Ma, H}, title = {Combined effects of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link: A multi-influence of climate change on freshwater planktonic communities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1175-1185}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.180}, pmid = {30677981}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {It is essential to understand the combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link when attempting to predict climate change responses of freshwater ecosystems. Phytoplankton species differ in stoichiometric and fatty acids composition, and this may result in phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton at elevated CO2 and temperature. Beyond the isolated analysis of CO2 or temperature effect, few studies have assessed zooplankton growth under the phytoplankton-mediated effects of elevated CO2 and temperature. In this study, three algal species (green alga, diatom, cyanobacteria) were fed on zooplankton Daphnia magna, under the conditions of CO2 concentrations of ambient (390 ppm) and elevated (1000 ppm) levels and temperatures at 20, 25 and 30 °C. Elevated CO2 increased the algal biomass, while it reduced the phosphorus (P) and ω3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (ω3 PUFAs) to carbon (C) ratios. Elevated temperature decreased the P/C ratios in all algal cultures and ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the diatom and the cyanobacteria cultures. Phytoplankton-mediated effect of elevated CO2 reduced the growth of zooplankton fed on the green and the mixed three algae culture. The stimulation of zooplankton fed on the diatom and the cyanobacteria by elevated temperature can be offset by decreasing food P and ω3 PUFAs contents. The combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the growth of daphnids were mainly mediated by ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the phytoplankton. Rising temperature as a combined direct and indirectly phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton may be able to ameliorate the negative effects of elevated CO2. The results indicated that the combined effects of increased CO2 and temperature increased the fatty acid content of the green alga but not the other algae. This study highlighted that climate change with simultaneously increasing temperature and CO2 may entangle the carbon transfer in freshwater planktonic communities.}, } @article {pmid30677973, year = {2019}, author = {He, W and Lian, J and Zhang, J and Yu, X and Chen, S}, title = {Impact of intra-annual runoff uniformity and global warming on the thermal regime of a large reservoir.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1085-1097}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.207}, pmid = {30677973}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Thermal stratification is common in reservoirs and greatly influences the aquatic environment. Changes in the uniformity of intra-annual runoff have been detected in several basins, but few studies have focused on the impacts that these changes have on thermal regimes. Using runoff data for Sanbanxi Reservoir, China, during 1950-2015, the long-term trends of intra-annual runoff uniformity were statistically analyzed and extrapolated for the 2050s and 2090s, and the relationship between these trends and the thermal regime of the reservoir were investigated. Moreover, the thermal regime was evaluated for future climate scenarios accounting for global warming. This study shows the following: 1) for South China, the concentration degree (Cd) for the distribution of intra-annual runoff in natural basins such as Sanbanxi Reservoir tended to be higher, but for rivers significantly impacted by human activities, Cd tended to be lower. 2) a higher Cd was associated with an increased reservoir temperature and released water temperature, and decreased thermal stability. For Sanbanxi Reservoir, a 10% increase in Cd corresponded to a change in annual average temperature, thermal stability, and released water temperature of 0.036 °C, -48.4 J m-2, and 0.153 °C, respectively. These changes were larger in summer than in other seasons; 3) global warming is predicted to increase reservoir temperature, released water temperature, and thermal stability, having a more significant influence on these parameters than intra-annual runoff uniformity; 4) future changes in thermal regimes will intensify oxygen stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia, promoting algal blooms, and delaying fish spawning. Effects of two methods aimed at controlling the thermal regime were also analyzed, including changing the operation level and intake elevation of the reservoir. This study investigated the response of the thermal regime of Sanbanxi Reservoir to climate change, and provides theoretical support for the management of water temperature and the reservoir's aquatic environment.}, } @article {pmid30677949, year = {2019}, author = {Santillán, D and Iglesias, A and La Jeunesse, I and Garrote, L and Sotes, V}, title = {Vineyards in transition: A global assessment of the adaptation needs of grape producing regions under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {839-852}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.079}, pmid = {30677949}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper suggests how climate change may transform vineyards. We consider changes in agro-climatic indicators derived from climatic variables as drivers for adaptation needs. We use two climate scenarios, GCM GFL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES, with 0.5° spatial resolution and daily time step forced by two emission scenarios, RCP2.6 and 6.0, to estimate the transition of potential vineyards in the major grape production world areas by the late 21st century. We present and discuss changes in three impact indicators - one drought indicator and two temperature ones - aimed at exploring the benefits of transition-based policies. The drought indicator provides insights to prepare adaptation for extreme events in probabilistic terms. The temperature indicators offer information on the transition towards suitable zones of production. Future projections suggest a lack of water to maintain current levels of production in all regions of the world. Furthermore, thermal suitability of grapevine may be greatly affected in China and the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, the possibility of quality wines is not altered within the regions with adequate suitability. Lastly, a portfolio of strategies to adapt to the future climate is presented.}, } @article {pmid30676927, year = {2017}, author = {Tang, X and Cao, X and Xu, X and Jiang, Y and Luo, Y and Ma, Z and Fan, J and Zhou, Y}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Epidemics of Powdery Mildew in Winter Wheat in China.}, journal = {Plant disease}, volume = {101}, number = {10}, pages = {1753-1760}, doi = {10.1094/PDIS-02-17-0168-RE}, pmid = {30676927}, issn = {0191-2917}, abstract = {Powdery mildew is a highly destructive winter wheat pathogen in China. Since the causative agent is sensitive to changing weather conditions, we analyzed climatic records from regions with previous wheat powdery mildew epidemics (1970 to 2012) and investigated the long-term effects of climate change on the percent acreage (PA) of the disease. Then, using PA and the pathogen's temperature requirements, we constructed a multiregression model to predict changes in epidemics during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Mean monthly air temperature increased from 1970 to 2012, whereas hours of sunshine and relative humidity decreased (P < 0.001). Year-to-year temperature changes were negatively associated with those of PA during oversummering and late spring periods of disease epidemics, whereas positive relationships were noted for other periods, and year-to-year changes in relative humidity were correlated with PA changes in the early spring period of disease epidemics (P < 0.001). Our models also predicted that PA would increase less under RCP2.6 (14.43%) than under RCP4.5 (14.51%) by the 2020s but would be higher by the 2050s and 2080s and would increase least under RCP8.5 (14.37% by the 2020s). Powdery mildew will, thus, pose an even greater threat to China's winter wheat production in the future.}, } @article {pmid30671678, year = {2019}, author = {Carlson, JM and Lehman, BR and Thompson, JL}, title = {Climate change images produce an attentional bias associated with pro-environmental disposition.}, journal = {Cognitive processing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10339-019-00902-5}, pmid = {30671678}, issn = {1612-4790}, abstract = {Humans have developed mechanisms to prioritize certain sensory input(s). Emotionally salient stimuli automatically capture observers' attention at the cost of less salient information. This prioritized processing is called attentional bias. Images of climate change have been found to elicit emotional responses. Yet, to date, there is no research assessing the extent to which climate change-relevant images produce an attentional bias. In a sample of college students (N = 39), we found that (1) climate change-related images capture attention and that (2) this attentional bias is related to individual differences in environmental disposition. Thus, images of climate change are salient-attention grabbing-signals related to pro-environmental orientation.}, } @article {pmid30671619, year = {2019}, author = {Mikovits, C and Zollitsch, W and Hörtenhuber, SJ and Baumgartner, J and Niebuhr, K and Piringer, M and Anders, I and Andre, K and Hennig-Pauka, I and Schönhart, M and Schauberger, G}, title = {Impacts of global warming on confined livestock systems for growing-fattening pigs: simulation of heat stress for 1981 to 2017 in Central Europe.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-01655-0}, pmid = {30671619}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {ACRP8 ? PiPoCooL ? KR15AC8K12646//Austrian Climate Research Program/ ; }, abstract = {In the mid-latitudes, pigs and poultry are kept predominantly in confined livestock buildings with a mechanical ventilation system. In the last decades, global warming has already been a challenge which causes hat stress for animals in such systems. Heat stress inside livestock buildings was assessed by a simulation model for the indoor climate, which is driven by meteorological parameters. Besides the meteorological conditions, the thermal environment inside the building depends on the sensible and latent energy release of the animals, the thermal properties of the building and the ventilation system and its control unit. For a site in Austria in the north of the Alpine Ridge, which is representative for confined livestock buildings for growing-fattening pigs in Central Europe, meteorological data between 1981 and 2017 were used for the model calculations of heat stress measures. This business-as-usual simulation over these 37 years resulted in an increase of the mean relative annual heat stress parameters in the range between 0.9 and 6.4% per year since 1981. In order to minimise the negative economic impact as the consequence of this positive trend of heat stress, adaptation measures are needed. The calculations for growing-fattening pigs show that such a simulation model for the indoor climate is an appropriate tool to determine the level of heat stress of livestock inside confined livestock buildings.}, } @article {pmid30671299, year = {2019}, author = {Sáenz-Romero, C and Kremer, A and Nagy, L and Újvári-Jármay, É and Ducousso, A and Kóczán-Horváth, A and Hansen, JK and Mátyás, C}, title = {Common garden comparisons confirm inherited differences in sensitivity to climate change between forest tree species.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6213}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6213}, pmid = {30671299}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The natural distribution, habitat, growth and evolutionary history of tree species are strongly dependent on ecological and genetic processes in ecosystems subject to fluctuating climatic conditions, but there have been few experimental comparisons of sensitivity between species. We compared the responses of two broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea) and two conifer tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies) to climatic transfers by fitting models containing the same climatic variables. We used published data from European provenance test networks to model the responses of individual populations nested within species. A mixed model approach was applied to develop a response function for tree height over climatic transfer distance, taking into account the climatic conditions at both the seed source and the test location. The two broadleaved species had flat climatic response curves, indicating high levels of plasticity in populations, facilitating adaptation to a broader range of environments, and conferring a high potential for resilience in the face of climatic change. By contrast, the two conifer species had response curves with more pronounced slopes, indicating a lower resilience to climate change. This finding may reflect stronger genetic clines in P. sylvestris and P. abies, which constrain their climate responses to narrower climatic ranges. The response functions had maxima that deviated from the expected maximum productivity in the climate of provenance towards cooler/moister climate conditions, which we interpreted as an adaptation lag. Unilateral, linear regression analyses following transfer to warmer and drier sites confirmed a decline in productivity, predictive of the likely impact of ongoing climate change on forest populations. The responses to mimicked climate change evaluated here are of considerable interest for forestry and ecology, supporting projections of expected performance based on "real-time" field data.}, } @article {pmid30671071, year = {2018}, author = {Varsamis, G and Papageorgiou, AC and Merou, T and Takos, I and Malesios, C and Manolis, A and Tsiripidis, I and Gailing, O}, title = {Adaptive Diversity of Beech Seedlings Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1918}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01918}, pmid = {30671071}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is especially important in the southern part of Europe, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama) that show differences in their environmental conditions and biogeographical background. Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were selected as adaptive traits and were measured under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber. Seedling survival was also tested under current conditions in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for 3 years, under two different irrigation schemes, where the same amount of water was distributed either frequently (once every week) or non-frequently (once in 20 days). The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, changes in the duration of the growing season of seedlings were recorded in the growth chamber, allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Differences were observed between populations and provenances in terms of temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.}, } @article {pmid30670759, year = {2019}, author = {Montánchez, I and Ogayar, E and Plágaro, AH and Esteve-Codina, A and Gómez-Garrido, J and Orruño, M and Arana, I and Kaberdin, VR}, title = {Analysis of Vibrio harveyi adaptation in sea water microcosms at elevated temperature provides insights into the putative mechanisms of its persistence and spread in the time of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {289}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-36483-0}, pmid = {30670759}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; PT17/0009/0019//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; PT17/0009/0019//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; }, abstract = {Discovering the means to control the increasing dissemination of pathogenic vibrios driven by recent climate change is challenged by the limited knowledge of the mechanisms in charge of Vibrio spp. persistence and spread in the time of global warming. To learn about physiological and gene expression patterns associated with the long-term persistence of V. harveyi at elevated temperatures, we studied adaptation of this marine bacterium in seawater microcosms at 30 °C which closely mimicked the upper limit of sea surface temperatures around the globe. We found that nearly 90% of cells lost their culturability and became partly damaged after two weeks, thus suggesting a negative impact of the combined action of elevated temperature and shortage of carbon on V. harveyi survival. Moreover, further gene expression analysis revealed that major adaptive mechanisms were poorly coordinated and apparently could not sustain cell fitness. On the other hand, elevated temperature and starvation promoted expression of many virulence genes, thus potentially reinforcing the pathogenicity of this organism. These findings suggest that the increase in disease outbreaks caused by V. harveyi under rising sea surface temperatures may not reflect higher cell fitness, but rather an increase in virulence enabling V. harveyi to escape from adverse environments to nutrient rich, host-pathogen associations.}, } @article {pmid30669456, year = {2019}, author = {Paterson, RRM}, title = {Ganoderma boninense Disease of Oil Palm to Significantly Reduce Production After 2050 in Sumatra if Projected Climate Change Occurs.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/microorganisms7010024}, pmid = {30669456}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Palm oil is a valuable crop. This relates to the high economic return from sales of the commodity, where Indonesia is the major producer in the world and the island of Sumatra is the most important region for palm oil production in the country. The island can be considered as a model for other oil palm growing regions in SE Asia. The area in Sumatra with a suitable climate for growing oil palm will decrease in size due to projected climate change as demonstrated specifically herein. The more unsuitable climate will lead to concomitant increases in basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, as previously predicted, which is of major concern to sustainability in SE Asia. A novel approach is described herein, whereby (a) a determination of suitable climate for growing oil palm in Sumatra and (b) deductions to determine future BSR levels on the island were undertaken. The unsuitability of the climate for oil palm is predicted to increase dramatically after 2050 when BSR is predicted to increase to very high levels on most parts of the island. This is likely to make palm oil production unsustainable at some stage between 2050 and 2100. North Sumatra may be more sustainable than the other areas considered in Sumatra. These effects of projected climate change require amelioration before the high levels of BSR and the unsuitable climate for oil palm are realized.}, } @article {pmid30667508, year = {2019}, author = {Friedrich, MJ}, title = {Tracking Progress on Mitigating Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {321}, number = {3}, pages = {238}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2018.21621}, pmid = {30667508}, issn = {1538-3598}, } @article {pmid30666613, year = {2019}, author = {Rudel, TK and Meyfroidt, P and Chazdon, R and Bongers, F and Sloan, S and Grau, HR and Van Holt, T and Schneider, L}, title = {Whither the forest transition? Climate change, policy responses, and redistributed forests in the twenty-first century.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-01143-0}, pmid = {30666613}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {#DEB1313788//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Forest transitions occur when net reforestation replaces net deforestation in places. Because forest transitions can increase biodiversity and augment carbon sequestration, they appeal to policymakers contending with the degrading effects of forest loss and climate change. What then can policymakers do to trigger forest transitions? The historical record over the last two centuries provides insights into the precipitating conditions. The early transitions often occurred passively, through the spontaneous regeneration of trees on abandoned agricultural lands. Later forest transitions occurred more frequently after large-scale crisis narratives emerged and spurred governments to take action, often by planting trees on degraded, sloped lands. To a greater degree than their predecessors, latecomer forest transitions exhibit centralized loci of power, leaders with clearly articulated goals, and rapid changes in forest cover. These historical shifts in forest transitions reflect our growing appreciation of their utility for countering droughts, floods, land degradation, and climate change.}, } @article {pmid30665904, year = {2019}, author = {Launer, J}, title = {Climate change: beyond denial and grief.}, journal = {Postgraduate medical journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/postgradmedj-2019-136407}, pmid = {30665904}, issn = {1469-0756}, } @article {pmid30665126, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, CC and Wang, YR and Guo, YL and Wang, YC and Lu, MM}, title = {Short-term prediction of extremely hot days in summer due to climate change and ENSO and related attributable mortality.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {661}, number = {}, pages = {10-17}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.168}, pmid = {30665126}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Summer days with extremely hot temperatures in Taiwan have been increasing for the past few decades, and this continuing trend is expected to worsen heat-related mortality. To mitigate the corresponding health impacts, in this study, we developed a statistical state-space model to predict the number of extremely hot days in June-September for the next year. Based on historical data from 1951 to 2017, we estimated the climate change trend after adjusting for the nonlinear lagged effect of the Niño 3.4 index. We then developed a predictive state-space model using these two primary factors and adjusting for residual autocorrelations. Validation results comparing the extremely hot days observed over 2015-2017 with predictions showed that 86% of the average prediction errors were within 4 days of the observations. To assess the health impacts, we applied the model to the projection of heat-attributable mortality (AM) in 2018 by adopting a comparative risk assessment (CRA) approach with the reference period of 2001-2010. The results showed that the Taipei metropolitan area in northern Taiwan is the most affected region with AM of 1501 deaths from all-causes, followed by Taichung in central Taiwan with 490 deaths. The prediction model and the CRA projection provide both a tool and guidance for public health administrators to address the imminent threat posed by climate change.}, } @article {pmid30664698, year = {2019}, author = {Pardo, JD and Small, BJ and Milner, AR and Huttenlocker, AK}, title = {Carboniferous-Permian climate change constrained early land vertebrate radiations.}, journal = {Nature ecology & evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0776-z}, pmid = {30664698}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {The Carboniferous-Permian transition (CPT) was Earth's last pre-Quaternary icehouse-greenhouse transition, recording major shifts in late Palaeozoic climate regimes and increased continental seasonality over approximately 40 Myr. Its parallels to Quaternary climate change have inspired recent investigations into the impacts of purported rainforest collapse on palaeotropical vertebrate diversity, but little is known about how the protracted spatial dynamics of this transition impacted the emergence of modern tetrapod lineages. Here, we apply ecological ordinance analyses on a dataset of 286 CPT fossil vertebrate localities binned across four physiographic regions forming a palaeoequatorial transect. Our results clarify the spatiotemporal expansion of land-living vertebrates, demonstrating that the reduction of tropical wetlands accommodated emerging dryland-adapted amniote faunas from a western Pangaean epicentre. We call this west-east lag the 'Vaughn-Olson model': CPT climatic transitions were regionally diachronous with delayed proliferation of amniote-dominated dryland assemblages in the east. By combining our ecological analyses with a phylogenetic approach, we demonstrate that this pattern also applies to some co-occurring total-group amphibians, suggesting that there was pervasive selection for such dryland adaptations across the crown tetrapod tree, in contrast with stem tetrapods and 'fishes'.}, } @article {pmid30662319, year = {2019}, author = {Göpfert, C and Wamsler, C and Lang, W}, title = {A framework for the joint institutionalization of climate change mitigation and adaptation in city administrations.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {1-21}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-018-9789-9}, pmid = {30662319}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Cities are key actors in reducing both the causes of climate change (mitigation) and its impact (adaptation), and many have developed separate mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures. However, in order to maximize outcomes, both scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrated and synergetic approaches. Unfortunately, related research remains scarce and fragmented, and there is a lack of systematic investigation into the necessary institutional conditions and processes. Against this background, this paper develops a framework to assess and support the joint institutionalization of climate adaptation and mitigation-here called adaptigation-in city administrations. This pioneering framework draws upon four key features of bureaucracies: organizational structure, visions and goals, actors, and technology and tools. Illustrated by pilot applications to the cities of Würzburg (Germany) and Mwanza (Tanzania), the framework provides a robust basis for future research, policy recommendations, and the development of context-specific guidelines for national and local decision-makers and officials. It highlights the importance of (i) clearly defined procedures for the implementation of adaptigation into urban planning processes (e.g., with the active involvement of stakeholders in the form of working groups or roundtable discussions), (ii) locally relevant goals and visions, established in collaboration with stakeholders, and (iii) the creation of mitigation and adaptation structures that are supported by the appropriate level of human resources, both within and outside city administrations. In this context, global, supranational, and national institutions play an important role in supporting institutionalization by providing targeted funding and promoting adaptigation, which requires the development of integrated goals, visions, and legislation.}, } @article {pmid30660270, year = {2019}, author = {Barreras, H and Kelly, EA and Kumar, N and Solo-Gabriele, HM}, title = {Assessment of local and regional strategies to control bacteria levels at beaches with consideration of impacts from climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {138}, number = {}, pages = {249-259}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.10.046}, pmid = {30660270}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {The objective of this study was to evaluate relationships between local factors (beach geomorphology and management) and regional factors (infrastructure improvements and temperature changes) against levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at recreational beaches. Data were evaluated for 17 beaches located in Monroe County, Florida (Florida Keys), USA, including an assessment of sanitary infrastructure improvements using equivalent dwelling unit (EDU) connections. Results show that elevated FIB levels were associated with beach geomorphologies characterized by impeded flow and by beaches with lax management policies. The decrease in EDUs not connected coincided with a decrease in the fraction of days when bacteria levels were out of compliance. Multivariate factor analysis also identified beach management practices (presence of homeless and concession stands) as being associated with elevated FIB. Overall, results suggest that communities can utilize beach management strategies and infrastructure improvements to overcome the negative water quality impacts anticipated with climate change.}, } @article {pmid30657748, year = {2019}, author = {Rodríguez Mega, E}, title = {Wild coffee species threatened by climate change and deforestation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00150-9}, pmid = {30657748}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30655436, year = {2019}, author = {Jean, K and Wymant, C}, title = {Airborne in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6424}, pages = {240}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw1145}, pmid = {30655436}, issn = {1095-9203}, } @article {pmid30652192, year = {2018}, author = {Prior, JH and Connon, IL and McIntyre, E and Adams, J and Capon, A and Kent, J and Rissel, C and Thomas, LE and Thompson, SM and Westcott, H}, title = {Built environment interventions for human and planetary health: integrating health in climate change adaptation and mitigation.}, journal = {Public health research & practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841831}, pmid = {30652192}, issn = {2204-2091}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Human-generated climate change is causing adverse health effects through multiple direct pathways (e.g. heatwaves, sea-level rise, storm frequency and intensity) and indirect pathways (e.g. food and water insecurity, social instability). Although the health system has a key role to play in addressing these health effects, so too do those professions tasked with the development of the built environment (urban and regional planners, urban designers, landscapers and architects), through improvements to buildings, streets, neighbourhoods, suburbs and cities. This article reports on the ways in which urban planning and design, and architectural interventions, can address the health effects of climate change; and the scope of climate change adaptation and mitigation approaches being implemented by the built environment professions. Type of program or service: Built environment adaptations and mitigations and their connections to the ways in which urban planning, urban design and architectural practices are addressing the health effects of climate change.

METHODS: Our reflections draw on the findings of a recent review of existing health and planning literature. First, we explore the ways in which 'adaptation' and 'mitigation' relate to the notion of human and planetary health. We then outline the broad scope of adaptation and mitigation interventions being envisioned, and in some instances actioned, by built environment professionals.

RESULTS: Analysis of the review's findings reveals that adaptations developed by built environment professions predominantly focus on protecting human health and wellbeing from the effects of climate change. In contrast, built environment mitigations address climate change by embracing a deeper understanding of the co-benefits inherent in the interconnectedness of human health and wellbeing and the health of the ecosystem on which it depends. In the final section, we highlight the ethical transition that these approaches demand of built environment professions.

LESSONS LEARNT: Built environment interventions must move beyond simple ecological sustainability to encouraging ways of life that are healthy for both humans and the planet. There are key challenges facing this new approach.}, } @article {pmid30652188, year = {2018}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Climate change and allergy in Australia: an innovative, high-income country, at potential risk.}, journal = {Public health research & practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841828}, pmid = {30652188}, issn = {2204-2091}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are important and potentially serious in Australia. Australia is highly vulnerable to such impacts because of its very high prevalence of allergic diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis, and allergic sensitisation to environmental allergens such as certain pollens and fungal spores. This article aims to review published research on the impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases from an Australian perspective.

METHODS: Research on climate change, allergens and allergy was reviewed. Recent global assessments of the topic were consulted, and supplemented with database searches to identify research published since the assessments were done, as well as research with an Australian focus. The databases used were Web of Science and Scopus. Only research published since the year 2000 was included.

RESULTS: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are many and varied. Impacts on pollen include effects on pollen production and atmospheric pollen concentration, pollen seasonality, pollen allergenicity, and the dispersion and spatial distribution of pollen. Similarly, there is evidence for effects on fungal spore production, seasonality and allergenicity. There are also likely effects on indoor moisture and mould growth. Beyond these respiratory allergens, climate change may also affect food allergens, stinging insect allergens and contact allergens. All these changes could affect allergic diseases, in particular allergic respiratory diseases such as allergic asthma and allergic rhinitis.

CONCLUSIONS: A large and sophisticated body of research exists from which to gauge both current and potential future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases. However, most, if not all, of this is from outside Australia. Australian-focused research is therefore urgently needed. Australia's vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change on allergic diseases is compounded by the precarious nature of aeroallergen monitoring, reporting and forecasting in this country. But Australia has an impressive wealth of relevant experience and expertise, and has the potential to address the challenge of both current and future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases.}, } @article {pmid30652186, year = {2018}, author = {Boylan, S and Beyer, K and Schlosberg, D and Mortimer, A and Hime, N and Scalley, B and Alders, R and Corvalan, C and Capon, A}, title = {A conceptual framework for climate change, health and wellbeing in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Public health research & practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841826}, pmid = {30652186}, issn = {2204-2091}, abstract = {Changes in natural hazards related to climate change are evident in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and are projected to become more frequent and intense. The impacts of climate change may adversely affect health and wellbeing, directly via extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms and floods, and indirectly via impacts on food security, air and water quality, and other environmental amenities. The NSW Government's Climate Change Policy Framework recognises the need to reduce the effects of climate change on health and wellbeing. A conceptual framework can support the aims and objectives of the policy framework by depicting the effects of climate change on health, and individual and social wellbeing, and areas for policy actions and responses. A proposed conceptual framework has been developed, modelled on the Driving force, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect and Action (DPSEEA) framework of the World Health Organization - a framework which shows the link between exposures and health effects as well as entry points for interventions. The proposed framework presented in this paper was developed in consultation with researchers and policy makers. The framework is guiding current research examining vulnerabilities to climate change and the effects of a range of exposures on health and wellbeing.}, } @article {pmid30652185, year = {2018}, author = {Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S and Pitman, A}, title = {Extreme events in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Public health research & practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841825}, pmid = {30652185}, issn = {2204-2091}, abstract = {By definition, extreme events are rare. Socio-economic and human systems have not experienced adverse extreme events frequently enough to develop resilience, whether this be physical, economical or structural. Humans are vulnerable to extreme events because of our physiology and because we build thresholds into our socio-economic and human health systems. When these thresholds are exceeded the consequences can be devastating. This perspective will discuss changes in heat, drought and heavy rainfall extremes in the context of climate change.}, } @article {pmid30652184, year = {2018}, author = {Hime, N and Vyas, A and Lachireddy, K and Wyett, S and Scalley, B and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change, health and wellbeing: challenges and opportunities in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Public health research & practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841824}, pmid = {30652184}, issn = {2204-2091}, abstract = {The NSW (New South Wales) Climate Change Policy Framework, launched by the NSW Government in 2016, recognises that climate change presents risks to health and wellbeing. Risks to health and wellbeing come from direct impacts of extreme weather events, and from indirect impacts through effects on air, water, food and ecosystems. Responding to these challenges offers an opportunity to protect and promote health by enhancing environmental amenities, and building adaptive capacity and resilience in populations and systems. To develop policy that effectively protects and promotes health in the face of climate change in NSW it is necessary to define the expected impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing in NSW.}, } @article {pmid30652183, year = {2018}, author = {Capon, A and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change and health: global issue, local responses.}, journal = {Public health research & practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841823}, pmid = {30652183}, issn = {2204-2091}, } @article {pmid30650319, year = {2019}, author = {Solomon, CG and LaRocque, RC}, title = {Climate Change - A Health Emergency.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {380}, number = {3}, pages = {209-211}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1817067}, pmid = {30650319}, issn = {1533-4406}, } @article {pmid30650240, year = {2019}, author = {Moat, J and Gole, TW and Davis, AP}, title = {Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14341}, pmid = {30650240}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Strategic Climate Institutions Programme (SCIP) Fund/ ; //Building a Climate Resilient Coffee Economy for Ethiopia/ ; //Darwin Initiative/ ; //Toyota Motor Corporation/ ; //Amar-Franses Foster-Jenkins Trust/ ; }, abstract = {Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present-day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.}, } @article {pmid30649928, year = {2019}, author = {Silverman, GS}, title = {Systematic Lack of Educational Preparation in Addressing Climate Change as a Major Public Health Challenge.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {242-243}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2018.304818}, pmid = {30649928}, issn = {1541-0048}, } @article {pmid30649565, year = {2019}, author = {Arco Molina, JG and Helle, G and Hadad, MA and Roig, FA}, title = {Variations in the intrinsic water-use efficiency of north Patagonian forests under a present climate change scenario: tree age, site conditions and long-term environmental effects.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpy144}, pmid = {30649565}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {The carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree rings were used to derive the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of Araucaria araucana trees of northern Patagonia along a strong precipitation gradient. It is well known that climatic and ontogenetic factors affect growth performance of this species but little is known about their influence in the physiological responses, as iWUE. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the physiological reactions of young and adult trees from two open xeric and two moderately dense mesic A. araucana forests to the increases in atmospheric CO2 (Ca) and air temperature during the 20th century, and to relate these responses with radial tree growth. The results indicated that the iWUE and the intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) increased 33% and 32% in average during the last century, respectively, but carbon isotope discrimination (∆13C) was more variable between sites and age classes. Trees from xeric sites presented greater iWUE and lower ∆13C and Ci values than those from mesic sites. In general, iWUE was strongly related with Ca and was significantly affected by mean summer maximum temperature. ∆13C from mesic sites seemed to be mainly affected by summer maximum temperature, while trees from xeric conditions did not show any influence. Tree age also presented a significant effect on iWUE. Adult trees showed higher iWUE values than young trees, indicating an incidence of the tree age and/or height, mainly in closed mesic forests. Moreover, some trees presented positive relationships between iWUE and radial tree growth, while others presented negative or no relationships, indicating that other factors may negatively influence tree growth. Broadly, the results demonstrate the incidence of climatic, environmental and ontogenetic variability in the tree responses; however, more studies are needed to better understand which forests will be more affected by actual and future climate changes.}, } @article {pmid30648210, year = {2019}, author = {Heshmati, I and Khorasani, N and Shams-Esfandabad, B and Riazi, B}, title = {Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {72}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-7154-9}, pmid = {30648210}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution and climate change will affect the species abilities to occupy geographic regions. Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive species and its biological invasion causes various negative effects in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions of the world. As eradication efforts subsequent to the establishment of an alien invasive species are costly and time-consuming, assessing patterns of the introduction of an invasive species to new regions is among the most cost-effective means of monitoring and management of natural ecosystems. In this study by using the concept of species distribution modeling (SDM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of P. juliflora has been assessed at a global scale. Bioclimatic variables in current condition and 2050 regarding two global circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios were considered as explanatory variables. Our results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), annual precipitation (BIO12), and temperature mean diurnal range (BIO2) represented more than 87% of the variations in the model, and with an AUC of 0.854 and TSS of 0.51, the model showed a good predictive performance. Our results indicate that on a global scale, suitable ranges for P. juliflora increase across all the GCM and RCP scenarios. In a global scale, Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and North America are regions with the highest risk of range expansion in the future. Regarding the negative impacts of P. juliflora on structure and function of natural habitats in the invaded areas, findings of this study could be considered as a warning appliance for the environmental monitoring of the regions highly sensitive to the global invasion of the species. We suggest that assessing impacts of climate change on the global distribution of the invasive species could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.}, } @article {pmid30647435, year = {2019}, author = {Fadrique, B and Báez, S and Duque, Á and Malizia, A and Blundo, C and Carilla, J and Osinaga-Acosta, O and Malizia, L and Silman, M and Farfán-Ríos, W and Malhi, Y and Young, KR and Francisco, CC and Homeier, J and Peralvo, M and Pinto, E and Jadan, O and Aguirre, N and Aguirre, Z and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Author Correction: Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0862-z}, pmid = {30647435}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {In Fig. 2 of this Article, the positive part of the y axis scale should read 0, 0.02, 0.04 instead of 0, 0.04, 0.02. This has been corrected online.}, } @article {pmid30644447, year = {2019}, author = {Popkin, G}, title = {How much can forests fight climate change?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7739}, pages = {280-282}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00122-z}, pmid = {30644447}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30642975, year = {2019}, author = {Bruine de Bruin, W and Morgan, MG}, title = {Reflections on an interdisciplinary collaboration to inform public understanding of climate change, mitigation, and impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1803726115}, pmid = {30642975}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {We describe two interdisciplinary projects in which natural scientists and engineers, as well as psychologists and other behavioral scientists, worked together to better communicate about climate change, including mitigation and impacts. One project focused on understanding and informing public perceptions of an emerging technology to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants, as well as other low-carbon electricity-generation technologies. A second project focused on public understanding about carbon dioxide's residence time in the atmosphere. In both projects, we applied the mental-models approach, which aims to design effective communications by using insights from interdisciplinary teams of experts and mental models elicited from intended audience members. In addition to summarizing our findings, we discuss the process of interdisciplinary collaboration that we pursued in framing and completing both projects. We conclude by describing what we think we have learned about the conditions that supported our ongoing interdisciplinary collaborations.}, } @article {pmid30641382, year = {2019}, author = {Rolo, V and Moreno, G}, title = {Shrub encroachment and climate change increase the exposure to drought of Mediterranean wood-pastures.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {550-558}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.029}, pmid = {30641382}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Pastures and wood-pastures, livestock grazing systems where scattered trees and shrubs co-occur, are essential for global food supply. The grazing value of these systems, which is closely related to soil moisture, is increasingly threatened by changes in climate variability and vegetation structure, mainly by shrub encroachment. However, it remains relatively unexplored to what extent the concurrent effect of climate change and shrub encroachment will affect the exposure to drought stress of Mediterranean wood-pastures - defined as a period where soil water availability drops below 40%. Here we combined soil moisture measurements and a process-based water balance model to assess the effect of shrubs, a shallow- and a deep-rooted, on soil moisture under current (2009-2012) and future weather (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Soil moisture was measured and predicted in six sites, three for each type of shrub, where two adjacent plots were selected, a control and an encroached plot. During 2009-2012, encroached plots had more extended droughts (29 and 48 days longer in sites encroached with shallow- and deep-rooted shrubs, respectively) and higher usage of deep water (~30%) than control plots. Under future climatic projections, our results show a consistent increase in the duration, an earlier onset of drought and higher reliance on shallow water with time, particularly under the worst climatic scenario. Encroached plots showed higher inter-annual variability than control plots, particularly in plots encroached with the deep-rooted shrub. Our results indicate that the presence of shrubs magnify the effect of climate. This suggests a likely increase in the exposure of Mediterranean wood-pastures to drought if processes of shrub encroachment persist in a context of climatic changes where earlier and more prolonged droughts will become more frequent.}, } @article {pmid30640092, year = {2019}, author = {Zheng, K and Wei, JZ and Pei, JY and Cheng, H and Zhang, XL and Huang, FQ and Li, FM and Ye, JS}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation variation in the Chinese Loess Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {236-244}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.022}, pmid = {30640092}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {China initiated the "Grain for Green Project" in 1999 to mitigate soil erosion. The vegetation cover of the Chinese Loess Plateau, one of the most erosive regions in the world, has been greatly increased. However, studies on quantitatively investigating the climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage change were rare. In this study, spatio-temporal changes in vegetation coverage were investigated using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over 2000-2016. And a new method was introduced using Net Primary Productivity (NPP) model and relationship between NPP and NDVI to quantitatively and spatially distinguish the NDVI affected by climate change and human activities. Results showed that mean NDVI value over 2009-2016 were 14.46% greater than that over 2000-2007. In order to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation change, an NPP model suitable for the grassland of the Chinese Loess Plateau was identified using biomass observations from field survey and literature. The NDVI affected by climate change (NDVIclimate) was estimated by the NPP model and the relationship between NPP and NDVI. And the NDVI affected by human activities (NDVIhuman) was calculated by actual NDVI minus NDVIclimate. Comparison of the two stages showed that human activities and climate change contributed 42.35% and 57.65% respectively to the ΔNDVI on grassland in the Loess Plateau. After analysis of numerous NDVIhuman related factors, the slopes restored by the "Grain for Green Project" was considered the main influence factor of human activities.}, } @article {pmid30640086, year = {2019}, author = {Li, G and Sun, S and Han, J and Yan, J and Liu, W and Wei, Y and Lu, N and Sun, Y}, title = {Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {177-187}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.028}, pmid = {30640086}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Remote sensing based vegetation index provides a practical method for the monitoring of vegetation dynamics at regional and global scales. Here, using a long-term remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we quantified the vegetation changes in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the last three decades (1982-2015), which includes the period before the Chinese"Grain for Green Program"(GGP) was launched (1982-1999), and the period after the GGP (1999-2015). The correlations between the NDVI and four climate related variables, i.e., precipitation, temperature, root-soil moisture (RSM), and a drought proxy-standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI), were also examined. The results indicated that, (i) the GGP strongly changed the vegetation in the LP. The growing-season mean NDVI (GSM-NDVI) and the annual mean NDVI (AM-NDVI) decreased slightly before the GGP launched in 1999, with slopes of -3.38 × 10-3 and - 8.00 × 10-4 year-1, respectively. However, they showed slight and significant (p < 0.05) increases after the GGP, with slopes of 4.75 × 10-3 and 2.32 × 10-3 year-1, respectively. (ii) Climate change (i.e., warming and drying) resulted in adverse effects on vegetation in the LP during the period before the GGP. However, the observed changes (i.e., wetting and reduced drought) exerted positive effects on the vegetation during the period after the GGP. (iii) Inter-annual variations of spatially averaged NDVI over the LP were primarily determined by RSM rather than any other climate related variables. In the southeastern LP, the inter-annual variation of GSM-NDVI was mainly determined by precipitation and SEDI, while the inter-annual variation of AM-NDVI was mainly caused by SEDI and RSM. Inter-annual variations of both GSM-NDVI and AM-NDVI were mainly determined by SEDI and RSM in the northwestern LP, and by temperature in the southwestern LP.}, } @article {pmid30639109, year = {2018}, author = {Samplonius, JM and Both, C}, title = {Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2018.11.063}, pmid = {30639109}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.}, } @article {pmid30637722, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Stoks, R}, title = {Temperature variation makes an ectotherm more sensitive to global warming unless thermal evolution occurs.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12946}, pmid = {30637722}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {1.To assess long-term impacts of global warming on species there is growing interest in latitudinal intraspecific patterns in thermal adaptation. Yet, while both mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs) are expected to increase under global warming, latitudinal differences in the effects of DTFs have not been documented. 2.We tested whether low-latitude populations of an ectotherm deal better with greater DTF than high-latitude populations, especially at a high mean temperature close to the optimal temperature for growth where DTF causes exposure to extreme high temperatures. We evaluated the impact of DTFs when assessing the effect of gradual thermal evolution at the high latitude with a space-for-time substitution. 3.We compared effects of both mean temperatures (20°C and 24°C) and DTFs (constant = 0°C, low = 5°C and high = 10°C) on growth rates between low-latitude and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common-garden experiment. 4.DTFs, if anything, reduced growth and were generally stressful as indicated by reductions in body condition, antioxidant defense and metabolic rate, and increases in oxidative damage. Most negative effects of DTFs were only present at a mean of 24°C when too high temperatures were reached during a daily cycle. Notably, while 4°C warming was beneficial in terms of growth rate at both latitudes at a constant temperature regime, this changed in a negative effect at high DTF. Moreover, this modulating effect of the mean temperature by DTF differed between latitudes indicating local thermal adaptation. While 4°C warming at low DTF still caused faster growth in low-latitude larvae, it already slowed growth in high-latitude larvae. This supports the emerging insight that warming would increase growth in high-latitude larvae in absence of DTF, yet would decrease growth in the more realistic scenarios with DTF. In contrast, a space-for-time substitution approach suggested that under gradual thermal evolution, the evolved high-latitude larvae would no longer suffer a growth reduction in the presence of DTF. 5.Our study provided important proof-of-principle that jointly integrating gradual thermal evolution and the expected increase in DTF generates opposing predictions of effects of global warming on this ectotherm. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30636278, year = {2019}, author = {Davies, WJ}, title = {Multiple temperature effects on phenology and body size in wild butterflies predict a complex response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e02612}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2612}, pmid = {30636278}, issn = {0012-9658}, abstract = {Temperature induced alterations in phenology and body size are the cumulative outcome of sequential effects impacting development, and are universal responses to climate change. Most studies have so far focused on phenological responses to warming in multiple taxa across space and time, or the ontogenetic effects of temperature in the laboratory. I here complement this work by investigating shifts in phenology and body size (wing-length) attributable to temperature changes operating over the entire lifespan of the univoltine orange-tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines in a single wild population over 14 generations. Phenology was affected by temperatures during three discrete periods in the year prior to emergence, corresponding to late larval/early pupal life, the onset of the chilling period required to break pupal diapause, and post-diapause pupal development prior to eclosion. Higher temperatures during late larval/early pupal life and post-diapause pupal development advanced the subsequent emergence of the butterflies, whereas higher temperatures at the onset of the chilling period retarded it. The synchronization of the butterflies' emergence schedule increased when pupae were exposed to milder mid-winter temperatures. Wing-length increased with warmer temperatures at distinct points in the early and mid pupal periods; such direct effects of temperature on body size could complement season length effects in explaining the reversal of the temperature-size rule in univoltine insects. The periods during which temperature affected the phenology of the butterfly only partially overlapped those affecting the first flowering date of its host-plants lady's smock Cardamine pratensis and garlic mustard Alliaria petiolata. Observed thermal effects on flowering time, emergence timing and emergence synchronization indicate that phenological convergence as well as phenological mismatching could affect host-plant availability and diet breadth; thermal effects on body size imply that important population-level processes could be impacted through correlated changes in fecundity and dispersal rate. In general, the combined effects of phenological and ontogenetic responses to temperature changes across the whole lifespan will likely be important in modelling the demographic responses of interacting species to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30635682, year = {2019}, author = {Xu, Y and Bosch, DJ and Wagena, MB and Collick, AS and Easton, ZM}, title = {Meeting Water Quality Goals by Spatial Targeting of Best Management Practices under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-01133-8}, pmid = {30635682}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {CBET-1360280//National Science Foundation/ ; VA-135911//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, abstract = {Agricultural production is a major source of nonpoint source pollution contributing 44% of total nitrogen (N) discharged to the Chesapeake Bay. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) established the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program to control this problem. For the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the TMDL program requires that nitrogen loadings be reduced by 25% by 2025. Climate change may affect the cost of achieving such reductions. Thus, it is necessary to develop cost-effective strategies to meet water quality goals under climate change. We investigate landscape targeting of best management practices (BMPs) based on topographic index (TI) to determine how targeting would affect costs of meeting N loading goals for Mahantango watershed, PA. We use the results from two climate models, CRCM and WRFG, and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models (Ensemble Mean) to estimate expected climate changes and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model to predict crop yields and N export. Costs of targeting and uniform placement of BMPs across the entire study area (423 ha) were compared under historical and future climate scenarios. Targeting BMP placement based on TI classes reduces costs for achieving water quality goals relative to uniform placement strategies under historical and future conditions. Compared with uniform placement, targeting methods reduce costs by 30, 34, and 27% under historical climate as estimated by the Ensemble Mean, CRCM and WRFG, respectively, and by 37, 43, and 33% under the corresponding estimates of future climate scenarios.}, } @article {pmid30635138, year = {2019}, author = {Walsh, BS and Parratt, SR and Hoffmann, AA and Atkinson, D and Snook, RR and Bretman, A and Price, TAR}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility.}, journal = {Trends in ecology & evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.002}, pmid = {30635138}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {Rising global temperatures are threatening biodiversity. Studies on the impact of temperature on natural populations usually use lethal or viability thresholds, termed the 'critical thermal limit' (CTL). However, this overlooks important sublethal impacts of temperature that could affect species' persistence. Here we discuss a critical but overlooked trait: fertility, which can deteriorate at temperatures less severe than an organism's lethal limit. We argue that studies examining the ecological and evolutionary impacts of climate change should consider the 'thermal fertility limit' (TFL) of species; we propose that a framework for the design of TFL studies across taxa be developed. Given the importance of fertility for population persistence, understanding how climate change affects TFLs is vital for the assessment of future biodiversity impacts.}, } @article {pmid30634954, year = {2019}, author = {Shezi, B and Mathee, A and Siziba, W and Street, RA and Naicker, N and Kunene, Z and Wright, CY}, title = {Environmental health practitioners potentially play a key role in helping communities adapt to climate change.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {54}, doi = {10.1186/s12889-018-6378-5}, pmid = {30634954}, issn = {1471-2458}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Vulnerable population groups in South Africa, especially those living in poverty, young children, women, the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases, are susceptible to new or exacerbated health threats resulting from climate change. Environmental Health Practitioners (EHPs) can play an important role in helping communities adapt to climate change health impacts, however, effective coordination of this requires further understanding of their roles in implementing climate change-related adaptation actions in communities.

METHODS: A cross-sectional survey using convenience sampling was undertaken at the January 2017 conference for EHPs hosted by the South African Institute of Environmental Health in Cape Town. All EHPs who attended the conference were invited to complete a study questionnaire that requested information on participant demographics, as well as climate change related-knowledge, practices and perceptions.

RESULTS: Majority of participating EHPs (n = 48; 72.8%) had received formal or informal training on climate change and health. Thirty-nine percent of EHPs indicated that they had a climate change and health-related committee / working group in their department, a policy or strategy (41.0%) and budget allocated for climate change and health-related work (51.5%). A total of 33.3% had participated in climate change-related projects. Majority (62.2%) of EHPs believed that they should play a supportive role in addressing climate change while 37.8% believed that EHPs should play a leading role.

CONCLUSIONS: Recognising the need for raising awareness about climate change adaptation as well as implementing appropriate interventions to combat climate-related ill health effects, especially among vulnerable groups, EHPs are well-placed to adopt significant roles in helping communities to adapt to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30632035, year = {2019}, author = {Ullah, A and Ahmad, I and Ahmad, A and Khaliq, T and Saeed, U and M Habib-Ur-Rahman, and Hussain, J and Ullah, S and Hoogenboom, G}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid environments using CSM-CERES-Millet model.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3925-7}, pmid = {30632035}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Climate change adversely affects food security all over the world, especially in developing countries where the increasing population is confronting food insecurity and malnutrition. Crop models can assist stakeholders for assessment of climate change in current and future agricultural production systems. The aim of this study was to use of system analysis approach through CSM-CERES-Millet model to quantify climate change and its impact on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of Punjab, Pakistan. Calibration and evaluation of CERES-Millet were performed with the field observations for pearl millet hybrid 86M86. Mid-century (2040-2069) climate change scenarios for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were generated based on an ensemble of selected five general circulation models (GCMs). The model was calibrated with optimum treatment (15-cm plant spacing and 200 kg N ha-1) using field observations on phenology, growth and grain yield. Thereafter, pearl millet cultivar was evaluated with remaining treatments of plant spacing and nitrogen during 2015 and 2016 in Faisalabad and Layyah. The CERES-Millet model was calibrated very well and predicted the grain yield with 1.14% error. Model valuation results showed that there was a close agreement between the observed and simulated values of grain yield with RMSE ranging from 172 to 193 kg ha-1. The results of future climate scenarios revealed that there would be an increase in Tmin (2.8 °C and 2.9 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) and Tmax (2.5 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) under RCP4.5. For RCP8.5, there would be an increase of 4 °C in Tmin for the semi-arid and arid environment and an increase of 3.7 °C and 3.9 °C in Tmax, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment. The impacts of climate changes showed that pearl millet yield would be reduced by 7 to 10% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in Faisalabad and 10 to 13% in Layyah under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for mid-century. So, CSM-CERES-Millet is a useful tool in assessing the climate change impacts.}, } @article {pmid30631162, year = {2019}, author = {Searchinger, TD and Wirsenius, S and Beringer, T and Dumas, P}, title = {Publisher Correction: Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0863-y}, pmid = {30631162}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {In this Letter, the PANGAEA repository was referred to incorrectly in the 'Code availability' and 'Data availability' sections of Methods: the link should be https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.893761 instead of https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877266 . In addition, the sentence, "However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha-1 yr-1) generates roughly the same benefits as system 1…" should read, "However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha-1 yr-1) generates roughly the same benefits as sugarcane ethanol…" These errors have been corrected in the online versions of the Letter.}, } @article {pmid30629690, year = {2019}, author = {Blennow, K and Persson, E and Persson, J}, title = {Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0210426}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0210426}, pmid = {30629690}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place have sometimes been downplayed in the climate change discourse. However, they have been suggested to be not only important to citizens but the values most vulnerable to climate change. Here we test four empirical consequences of the suggestion: (i) at least 50% of the locations citizens' consider to be the most important locations in their municipality are chosen because they represent these values, (ii) locations representing these values have a high probability of being damaged by climate change induced sea level rise, (iii) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe in the local effects of climate change, and (iv) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe that they have experienced the effects of climate change. The tests were made using survey data collected in 2014 from 326 citizens owning property in Höganäs municipality, Sweden, and included values elicited using a new methodology separating instrumental values from end values, and using the former (which strictly speaking should be seen as estimates of usefulness rather than as aims in themselves) as stepping stones to pinpoint the latter, that represent the true interests of the respondents. The results provide the first evidence that, albeit frequent, values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place are not the values most vulnerable to climate change. This in turn indicates a need to further investigate the vulnerability of these values to climate change, using a methodology that clearly distinguishes between instrumental and end values.}, } @article {pmid30627998, year = {2019}, author = {Gul, F and Jan, D and Ashfaq, M}, title = {Assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change on wheat production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-04109-7}, pmid = {30627998}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study involves the climate change impact assessment of wheat producers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. An extensive farm survey of 150 farms was designed. From study area, three districts, namely, Chitral, D.I. Khan, and Peshawar, were selected through multistage sampling process. Yield simulation from Crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) was used for socio-economic impact assessment. Future climate scenarios were generated by selecting five GCMs from latest CMIP5 family with two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, at two carbon concentrations of 499 ppm and 571 ppm, respectively. Yield simulations were analyzed for each GCM. Results of crop model revealed that wheat yield will increase in district Chitral, while in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, yields would be reduced due to climate change. For socio-economic impact assessment, TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment) version 6 was used. Climate change impacts on poverty, net farm returns, and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The analysis was carried out on per-farm basis. The economic model results revealed that climate change has negative impact on wheat producers in D.I. Khan and Peshawar while making wheat producers better off in Chitral. The number of losers ranged from 54 to 66.21% and 50 to 61.99% in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, respectively. Losers are the farmers who would be economically worse off under perturbed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 34 to 49 in D.I. Khan while 21.26 to 34.03 in Peshawar. The study recommended need for adaptation strategies to overcome the vulnerabilities of climate change.}, } @article {pmid30625666, year = {2019}, author = {Zhao, CS and Yang, Y and Yang, ST and Xiang, H and Zhang, Y and Wang, ZY and Chen, X and Mitrovic, SM}, title = {Predicting future river health in a minimally influenced mountainous area under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {1373-1385}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.430}, pmid = {30625666}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {It has been shown that climate change impacts the overall health of a river's ecosystem. Although predicting river health under climate change would be useful for stakeholders to adapt to the change and better conserve river health, little research on this topic exists. This paper presents a methodology predicting river health under different climate change scenarios. First, a multi-source, distributed, time-variant gain hydrological model (MS-DTVGM) was used to predict the runoff from a mountainous river in eastern China using the data from three existing IPCC5 climate change models (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.4). Next, a model was developed to predict the river's water quality under these scenarios. Finally, a multidimensional response model utilizing hydrology, water quality, and biology was used to predict the river's biological status and ascertain the impact of climate change on its overall health. The river is in a mountainous area near Jinan City, one of China's first "pilot" cities recognized as a "healthy water ecological community." Our results predict that the overall health of the Yufu River, which is minimally influenced by human activities, will improve by 2030 due to the increased river flow due to an increase in rainfall frequency and subsequent peak runoff. However, the total nitrogen concentration is predicted to increase, which is a potential eutrophication risk. Therefore, effective control of nitrogen pollutants entering the river will be necessary. The increase in flow velocity (the annual average increase is ~0.5 m/s) is favorable for fish reproduction. Our methods and results will provide scientific guidance for policy makers and river managers and will help people to better understand how global climate change impacts river health.}, } @article {pmid30621785, year = {2019}, author = {Hertig, E}, title = {Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change.}, journal = {Parasites & vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {18}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6}, pmid = {30621785}, issn = {1756-3305}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessments of possible changes of Anopheles vector distributions and of potential malaria transmission stability in the European-Mediterranean area under changing climatic conditions during the course of the 21st century are not available yet.

METHODS: Boosted Regression Trees are applied to relate climate variables and land cover classes to vector occurrences. Changes in future vector distributions and potential malaria transmission stability due to climate change are assessed using state-of-the art regional climate model simulations.

RESULTS: Distinct changes in the distributions of the dominant vectors of human malaria are to be expected under climate change. In general, temperature and precipitation changes will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors. Yet, for some Mediterranean areas, occurrence probabilities may decline.

CONCLUSIONS: Potential malaria transmission stability is increased in areas where the climatic changes favor vector occurrences as well as significantly impact the vectorial capacity. As a result, vector stability shows the highest increases between historical and future periods for the southern and south-eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the dominant vector in large parts of Europe, might play an important role with respect to changes of the potential transmission stability.}, } @article {pmid30620924, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, C and Chen, Y and Peng, C and Li, Z and Hong, X}, title = {Modeling and estimating aboveground biomass of Dacrydium pierrei in China using machine learning with climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {234}, number = {}, pages = {167-179}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.12.090}, pmid = {30620924}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Accurate estimations of the aboveground biomass (AGB) of rare and endangered species are particularly important for protecting forest ecosystems and endangered species and for providing useful information to analyze the influence of past and future climate change on forest AGB. We investigated the feasibility of using three developed and two widely used models, including a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), a group method of data handling (GMDH), an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), an artificial neural network (ANN) and a support vector machine (SVM), to estimate the AGB of Dacrydium pierrei (D. pierrei) in natural forests of China. The results showed that these models could explain the changes in the AGB of the D. pierrei using a limited amount of meteorological data. The GRNN and ANN models are superior to the other models for estimating the AGB of D. pierrei. The GMDH model consistently produced comparatively poor estimates of the AGB. Three climate scenarios, including the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were compared with the climate situation of 2013-2017. Under these scenarios, the AGB of D. pierrei females with the same diameter at breast height (DBH) would increase by 13.0 ± 31.4% (mean ± standard deviation), 16.6 ± 30.7%, and 18.5 ± 30.9% during 2041-2060 and 15.6 ± 32.1%, 21.2 ± 33.2%, and 24.8 ± 32.7% during 2061-2080; the AGB of males would increase by 16.3 ± 32.3%, 21.7 ± 32.5%, and 22.9 ± 32.6% during 2041-2060 and 22.3 ± 30.8%, 27.2 ± 31.8%, and 30.1 ± 34.4% during 2061-2080. The R2 values of all models range from 0.82 to 0.95. In conclusion, this study suggests that these advanced models are recommended to estimate the AGB of forests, and the AGB of forests would increase in 2041-2080 under future climate scenarios.}, } @article {pmid30619552, year = {2018}, author = {Buckley, LB and Khaliq, I and Swanson, DL and Hof, C}, title = {Does metabolism constrain bird and mammal ranges and predict shifts in response to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {24}, pages = {12375-12385}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4537}, pmid = {30619552}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Mechanistic approaches for predicting the ranges of endotherms are needed to forecast their responses to environmental change. We test whether physiological constraints on maximum metabolic rate and the factor by which endotherms can elevate their metabolism (metabolic expansibility) influence cold range limits for mammal and bird species. We examine metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary (MECRB) and whether species' traits can predict variability in MECRB and then use MECRB as an initial approach to project range shifts for 210 mammal and 61 bird species. We find evidence for metabolic constraints: the distributions of metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary peak at similar values for birds (2.7) and mammals (3.2). The right skewed distributions suggest some species have adapted to elevate or evade metabolic constraints. Mammals exhibit greater skew than birds, consistent with their diverse thermoregulatory adaptations and behaviors. Mammal and bird species that are small and occupy low trophic levels exhibit high levels of MECRB. Mammals with high MECRB tend to hibernate or use torpor. Predicted metabolic rates at the cold range boundaries represent large energetic expenditures (>50% of maximum metabolic rates). We project species to shift their cold range boundaries poleward by an average of 3.9° latitude by 2070 if metabolic constraints remain constant. Our analysis suggests that metabolic constraints provide a viable mechanism for initial projections of the cold range boundaries for endotherms. However, errors and approximations in estimating metabolic constraints (e.g., acclimation responses) and evasion of these constraints (e.g., torpor/hibernation, microclimate selection) highlight the need for more detailed, taxa-specific mechanistic models. Even coarse considerations of metabolism will likely lead to improved predictions over exclusively considering thermal tolerance for endotherms.}, } @article {pmid30614147, year = {2019}, author = {Sun, Y and Xie, S and Zhao, S}, title = {Valuing urban green spaces in mitigating climate change: a city-wide estimate of aboveground carbon stored in urban green spaces of China's Capital.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14566}, pmid = {30614147}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Urban green spaces provide manifold environmental benefits and promote human well-being. Unfortunately, these services are largely undervalued, and the potential of urban areas themselves to mitigate future climate change has received little attention. In this study, we quantified and mapped city-wide aboveground carbon storage of urban green spaces in China's capital, Beijing, using field survey data of diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height from 326 field survey plots, combined with satellite-derived vegetation index at a fine resolution of 6 m. We estimated the total amount of carbon stored in the urban green spaces to be 956.3 Gg (1 Gg = 109 g) in 2014. There existed great spatial heterogeneity in vegetation carbon density varying from 0 to 68.1 Mg C ha-1 , with an average density of 7.8 Mg C ha-1 . As expected, carbon density tended to decrease with urban development intensity (UDI). Likely affected by vegetation cover proportion and configuration of green space patches, large differences presented between the 95th and 5th quantile carbon density for each UDI bin, showing great potential for carbon sequestration. However, the interquartile range of carbon density narrowed drastically when UDI reached 60%, signifying a threshold for greatly reduced carbon sequestration potentials for higher UDI. These findings suggested that urban green spaces have great potential to make contribution to mitigating against future climate change if we plan and design urban green spaces following the trajectory of high carbon density, but we should be aware that such potential will be very limited when the urban development reaches certain intensity threshold. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30614129, year = {2019}, author = {Spalink, D and MacKay, R and Sytsma, KJ}, title = {Phylogeography, population genetics, and distribution modeling reveal vulnerability of Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae) and the Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15006}, pmid = {30614129}, issn = {1365-294X}, abstract = {A proactive approach to conservation must be predictive, anticipating how habitats will change and which species are likely to decline or prosper. We use composite species distribution modeling to identify suitable habitats for 18 members of the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora (ACPF) since the Last Glacial Maximum and project these into the future. We then use Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae), a globally imperiled ACPF sedge with many of the characteristics of extinction vulnerability, as a case study. We integrate phylogeographic and population genetic analyses and species distribution modeling to develop a broad view of its current condition and prognosis for conservation. We use genotyping-by-sequencing to characterize the genomes of 142 S. longii individuals from twenty populations distributed throughout its range (New Jersey to Nova Scotia). We measure the distribution of genetic diversity in the species and reconstruct its phylogeographic history using SNAPP and RASE. Extant populations of S. longii originated from a single refugium south of the Laurentide ice sheet around 25 thousand years ago. The genetic diversity of S. longii is exceedingly low, populations exhibit little genetic structure, and the species is slightly inbred. Projected climate scenarios indicate that nearly half of extant populations of S. longii will be exposed to unsuitable climate by 2070. Similar changes in suitable habitat will occur for many other northern ACPF species - centers of diversity will shift northward and Nova Scotia may become the last refuges for those species not extinguished. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30613399, year = {2018}, author = {Cook, CJ and Burness, G and Wilson, CC}, title = {Metabolic rates of embryos and alevin from a cold-adapted salmonid differ with temperature, population and family of origin: implications for coping with climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {cox076}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/cox076}, pmid = {30613399}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Early developmental stages of cold-adapted ectotherms such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are at higher risk of mortality with increasing water temperatures. To determine the amount of variation present in early life, which may allow for potential adaptation to increasing temperature, we examined the routine metabolic rates (RMR) of wild-origin brook trout embryos and alevins reared at normal (5°C) and elevated (9°C) temperatures. The experiment was structured to examine variation in RMR within and among several levels of biological organization (family, population and ancestral type (native vs. mixed ancestry)). As expected, family and temperature variables were most important for predicting RMR and body mass, although population-level differences also existed when family was excluded for more detailed analysis. Additionally, body mass strongly influenced RMR at all life stages except for eyed embryos. When family identity was removed from the analysis, population became the most significant variable. Variation in RMR and mass within and among populations may indicate existing adaptive potential within and among brook trout populations to respond to predicted warming under climate change scenarios.}, } @article {pmid30612331, year = {2019}, author = {Ali, SHB and Shafqat, MN and Eqani, SAMAS and Shah, STA}, title = {Trends of climate change in the upper Indus basin region, Pakistan: implications for cryosphere.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {51}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-7184-3}, pmid = {30612331}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {The Indus River, the lifeline of Pakistan's economy and its tributaries, derives most of water flow from the upper Indus basin comprised of Karakorum, Himalaya, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, thus making this area important in climate change studies. We analyzed the records of climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity (RH) from two weather stations (Gilgit and Skardu) of upper Indus basin region from 1953 to 2006. To observe the trends of climate change, the selected time was divided into two temporal half periods consisting of 27 years each (1953-1979 and 1980-2006). The overall mean temperature (OMT) was decreased by - 0.137 °C in Gilgit, while an increase of 0.63 °C was observed in Skardu during the later period compared to the previous one. The mean minimum temperature (MMT) was found to decrease while mean maximum temperature (MXT) showed non-significant changes during the summer at both locations. However, there was an evidence of spring and winter warming at both locations due to increase in the MXT. The precipitation data showed large interannual variation at both locations. Significant increases in the morning relative humidity (RH) were observed during summer and autumn months at Skardu and throughout the year at Gilgit, while the evening RH increased during the same seasons at both stations. Significant increase in MXT and OMT during spring and winter months at higher elevation (Skardu) may have serious implications for the deposition and melting of seasonal snowpack with impacts on local livelihoods and river flow.}, } @article {pmid30610180, year = {2019}, author = {Miller-Rushing, AJ and Gallinat, AS and Primack, RB}, title = {Creative citizen science illuminates complex ecological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1820266116}, pmid = {30610180}, issn = {1091-6490}, } @article {pmid30609226, year = {2019}, author = {Penteriani, V and Zarzo-Arias, A and Novo-Fernández, A and Bombieri, G and López-Sánchez, CA}, title = {Responses of an endangered brown bear population to climate change based on predictable food resource and shelter alterations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14564}, pmid = {30609226}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The survival of an increasing number of species is threatened by climate change: 20-30% of plants and animals seem to be at risk of range shift or extinction if global warming reaches levels projected to occur by the end of this century. Plant range shifts may determine whether animal species that rely on plant availability for food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy and availability. Brown bears in temperate forested habitats mostly forage on plants and it may be expected that climate change will affect the viability of the endangered populations of southern Europe. Here, we assessed the potential impact of climate change on seven plants that represent main food resources and shelter for the endangered population of brown bears in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain). Our simulations suggest that the geographic range of these plants might be altered under future climate warming, with most bear resources reducing their range. As a consequence, this brown bear population is expected to decline drastically in the next fifty years. Range shifts of brown bear are also expected to displace individuals from mountainous areas towards more humanised ones, where we can expect an increase in conflicts and bear mortality rates. Additional negative effects might include: (a) a tendency to a more carnivorous diet, which would increase conflicts with cattle farmers; (b) limited fat storage before hibernation due to the reduction of oak forests; (c) increased intraspecific competition with other acorn consumers, i.e. wild ungulates and free-ranging livestock; and (d) larger displacements between seasons to find main trophic resources. The magnitude of the changes projected by our models emphasizes that conservation practices focused only on bears may not be appropriate and thus we need more dynamic conservation planning aimed at reducing the impact of climate change in forested landscapes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30608960, year = {2019}, author = {Selm, KR and Peterson, MN and Hess, GR and Beck, SM and McHale, MR}, title = {Educational attainment predicts negative perceptions women have of their own climate change knowledge.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0210149}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0210149}, pmid = {30608960}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Education may encourage personal and collective responses to climate change, but climate education has proven surprisingly difficult and complex. Self-perception of knowledge and intelligence represent one factor that may impact willingness to learn about climate change. We explored this possibility with a case study in Raleigh, North Carolina in 2015 (n = 200). Our goal was to test how gender and ethnicity influenced perceptions people had of their own climate change knowledge. Survey respondents were asked how strongly they agreed with the statement "I feel knowledgeable about climate change" (1 = strongly disagree, and 5 = strongly agree). Our survey instrument also included demographic questions about race, age, income, gender, and education, as well as respondent's experience with natural disasters and drought. We observed an interaction between education and gender where women's self-perceived knowledge was higher than men among people with low levels of educational attainment, but was higher for men than women among people with high levels of educational attainment. In addition, minority respondents self-reported lower perceived climate change knowledge than white respondents, regardless of educational attainment. This study enhances our understanding of the gender gap in self-perceptions of climate knowledge by suggesting it is contingent on educational attainment. This could be the result of stereotype-threat experienced by women and minorities, and exacerbated by educational systems. Because people who question their knowledge are often more able to learn, particularly in ideologically charged contexts, highly educated women and minorities may be more successful learning about climate change than white men.}, } @article {pmid30606749, year = {2019}, author = {Weigmann, K}, title = {Fixing carbon: To alleviate climate change, scientists are exploring ways to harness nature's ability to capture CO2 from the atmosphere.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15252/embr.201847580}, pmid = {30606749}, issn = {1469-3178}, } @article {pmid30606474, year = {2018}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Xiang, J and Cameron, S and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Williams, C and Mahmood, A and Bi, P}, title = {Dengue control in the context of climate change: Views from health professionals in different geographic regions of China.}, journal = {Journal of infection and public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jiph.2018.12.010}, pmid = {30606474}, issn = {1876-035X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a significant climate-sensitive disease. Public health professionals play an important role in prevention and control of the disease. This study aimed to explore dengue control and prevention in the context of climate change in China.

METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 630 public health professionals in 2015. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were performed.

RESULTS: More than 80% of participants from southwest and central China believed climate change would affect dengue. However, participants from northeast China were less likely to believe so (65%). Sixty-nine percent of participants in Yunnan perceived that dengue had emerged/re-emerged in recent years, compared with 40.6% in Henan and 23.8% in Liaoning. Less than 60% of participants thought current prevention and control programs had been effective. Participants believed mosquitoes in high abundance, imported cases and climate change were main risk factors for dengue in China.

CONCLUSION: There were varying views of dengue in China. Professionals in areas susceptible to dengue were more likely to be concerned about climate change and dengue. Current prevention and control strategies need to be improved. Providing more information for staff in lower levels of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may help in containing a possible increase of dengue.}, } @article {pmid30606097, year = {2019}, author = {Bruno, JF and Côté, IM and Toth, LT}, title = {Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {307-334}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095300}, pmid = {30606097}, issn = {1941-0611}, abstract = {Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change-the root cause of global coral decline.}, } @article {pmid30605957, year = {2019}, author = {Shi, XM}, title = {[Air pollution, climate change and health: from evidence to action].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {30605957}, issn = {0253-9624}, support = {2016YFC0206500//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {The adverse effects of air pollution and climate change on human health have already been a major global environmental issue, and the challenges in China are even more severe. In this issue, titled "Air Pollution Climate, Change and Health" , we present a series of articles that reviewed and analyzed the impact of air pollution and climate change on human health systematically, and propose recommendations for the next phase of research. Meanwhile, we introduce the latest achievements of the World Health Organization (WHO) in coping with air pollution and health, summarize the first WHO Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health, and provide evidence-based guidelines for control and prevention of climate change and air pollution in China.}, } @article {pmid30604087, year = {2019}, author = {Denley, D and Metaxas, A and Fennel, K}, title = {Community composition influences the population growth and ecological impact of invasive species in response to climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-018-04334-4}, pmid = {30604087}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {RGPIN-2016-04878//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Predicting long-term impacts of introduced species is challenging, since stressors related to global change can influence species-community interactions by affecting both demographic rates of invasive species and the structure of the invaded ecosystems. Invasive species can alter ecosystem structure over time, further complicating interactions between invasive species and invaded communities in response to additional stressors. Few studies have considered how cumulative impacts of species invasion and global change on the structure of invaded ecosystems may influence persistence and population growth of introduced species. Here, we present an empirically based population model for an invasive epiphytic bryozoan that can dramatically alter the structure of its invaded kelp bed ecosystems. We use this model to predict the response of invasive species to climate change and associated changes in the invaded community. Population growth of the bryozoan increased under near-future projections of increasing ocean temperature; however, the magnitude of population growth depended on the community composition of invaded kelp beds. Our results suggest that, in some cases, indirect effects of climate change mediated through changes to the structure of the invaded habitat can modulate direct effects of climate change on invasive species, with consequences for their long-term ecological impact. Our findings have important implications for management of invasive species, as modifying invaded habitats at local to regional scales may be more logistically feasible than addressing stressors related to global climate change.}, } @article {pmid30602746, year = {2019}, author = {Newman, J}, title = {Islands' institutes band together against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7737}, pages = {25}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07873-1}, pmid = {30602746}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30600449, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, S and Jiang, J and Zhou, Y and Li, J and Zhao, D and Lin, S}, title = {Climate-change information, health-risk perception and residents' environmental complaint behavior: an empirical study in China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-018-0235-4}, pmid = {30600449}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {71601174//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71804174//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71571172//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018M632555//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; 16CJL020//National Social Science Foundation of China/ ; 2017R0034//Fujian Fund of Soft Science Research/ ; None//Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Fujian Province University/ ; }, abstract = {Motivating residents to deliver environmental complaints is beneficial for environmental authorities to help them manage environmental issues and alleviate the adverse effects caused by climate change. The major aim of the present study is to understand how climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions (both physical and mental dimensions) affect residents' environmental complaint behavior. The research framework was developed according to planned behavior theory, risk perception behavior and information behavior models. This framework was empirically assessed by employing questionnaire survey data gathered from 1273 respondents in China. The results indicate that climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions have all significantly positive effects on residents' attitudes toward environmental complaints and their intention to submit environmental complaints. Meanwhile, residents' health-risk perception is also positively affected by climate-change information. Mental health-risk perception plays a much stronger role in determining a residents' attitude and intention to submit an environmental complaint than does physical health-risk perception. Furthermore, attitude toward environmental complaint, perceived behavioral control and subjective norm all have significantly positive effects on a residents' intention to submit an environmental complaint. Additionally, this study also addresses the intention-behavior gap and suggests a positive relationship between intention and behavior. The present study may provide some practical implications to motivate residents to submit environmental complaints.}, } @article {pmid30598797, year = {2018}, author = {Savva, I and Bennett, S and Roca, G and Jordà, G and Marbà, N}, title = {Thermal tolerance of Mediterranean marine macrophytes: Vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {23}, pages = {12032-12043}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4663}, pmid = {30598797}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems.}, } @article {pmid30598784, year = {2018}, author = {Su, J and Aryal, A and Hegab, IM and Shrestha, UB and Coogan, SCP and Sathyakumar, S and Dalannast, M and Dou, Z and Suo, Y and Dabu, X and Fu, H and Wu, L and Ji, W}, title = {Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {23}, pages = {11887-11899}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4645}, pmid = {30598784}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km2 in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km2) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km2) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km2 (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.}, } @article {pmid30597870, year = {2018}, author = {Schnitter, R and Verret, M and Berry, P and Chung Tiam Fook, T and Hales, S and Lal, A and Edwards, S}, title = {An Assessment of Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation in Dominica.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16010070}, pmid = {30597870}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {N/A//Health Canada/ ; }, abstract = {A climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted in Dominica, a Caribbean small island developing state located in the Lesser Antilles. The assessment revealed that the country's population is already experiencing many impacts on health and health systems from climate variability and change. Infectious diseases as well as food and waterborne diseases pose continued threats as climate change may exacerbate the related health risks. Threats to food security were also identified, with particular concern for food production systems. The findings of the assessment included near-term and long-term adaptation options that can inform actions of health sector decision-makers in addressing health vulnerabilities and building resilience to climate change. Key challenges include the need for enhanced financial and human resources to build awareness of key health risks and increase adaptive capacity. Other small island developing states interested in pursuing a vulnerability and adaptation assessment may find this assessment approach, key findings, analysis, and lessons learned useful.}, } @article {pmid30597712, year = {2018}, author = {Peterson, ML and Doak, DF and Morris, WF}, title = {Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14562}, pmid = {30597712}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographical ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to non-climatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically-based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30594113, year = {2018}, author = {Puppim de Oliveira, JA}, title = {Intergovernmental relations for environmental governance: Cases of solid waste management and climate change in two Malaysian States.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {481-488}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.097}, pmid = {30594113}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Institutions for environmental governance evolve differently across sectors. They also vary in the same sector when governments at two levels (national and subnational) have different political alignments. As the policy environment becomes more complex, with global problems like climate change, and politics more dividing, better coordination among various levels of government is a tough governance challenge. Scholars and practitioners need to realize how best to build institutions to bridge the various levels of government in different political environments and environmental sectors. This research analyzes the influence of intergovernmental relations in two environmental sectors in two localities with contrasting political alignments between two levels of government. It draws lessons from solid waste management and climate policy in two Malaysian states (Johor and Penang). In an evolving State and new policy arenas, when formal institutions for intergovernmental relations may not be effectively in place, politics play an even larger role through the discretionary power of federal and subnational authorities. An open political process can help with the engagement of different political groups and civil society to bring legitimacy, resources and efficiency to environmental management, if it is done with robust intergovernmental institutions; otherwise, intergovernmental relations can also become a tool for zero-sum games, cronyism and patrimonialism, which can undermine policies, and result in inefficiencies and ineffectiveness in environmental management.}, } @article {pmid30589982, year = {2018}, author = {Kissel, AM and Palen, WJ and Ryan, ME and Adams, MJ}, title = {Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1832}, pmid = {30589982}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//NPS George M. Wright Climate Change Youth Initiative Fellowship/ ; //North Coast and Cascades Science Learning Network/ ; //North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative/ ; //Northwest Climate Science Center/ ; //David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellows Program/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λs) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λs will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.}, } @article {pmid30587880, year = {2018}, author = {Ylä-Anttila, T and Vesa, J and Eranti, V and Kukkonen, A and Lehtimäki, T and Lonkila, M and Luhtakallio, E}, title = {Up with ecology, down with economy? The consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation in the global public sphere.}, journal = {European journal of communication}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {587-603}, doi = {10.1177/0267323118790155}, pmid = {30587880}, issn = {0267-3231}, abstract = {Building on theories of valuation and evaluation, we develop an analytical framework that outlines six elements of the process of consolidation of an idea in the public sphere. We then use the framework to analyse the process of consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation between 1997 and 2013, focusing on the interplay between ecological and economic evaluations. Our content analysis of 1274 articles in leading newspapers in five countries around the globe shows that (1) ecological arguments increase over time, (2) economic arguments decrease over time, (3) the visibility of environmental nongovernmental organizations as carriers of ecological ideas increases over time, (4) the visibility of business actors correspondingly decreases, (5) ecological ideas are increasingly adopted by political and business elites and (6) a compromise emerges between ecological and economic evaluations, in the form of the argument that climate change mitigation boosts, rather than hinders economic growth.}, } @article {pmid30587552, year = {2018}, author = {Fan, J and Meng, J and Ashkenazy, Y and Havlin, S and Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {52}, pages = {E12128-E12134}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811068115}, pmid = {30587552}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate warming, and they may have widespread and diverse effects on health, agriculture, economics, and political conflicts. Still, the detection and quantification of climate change, both in observations and climate models, constitute a main focus of the scientific community. Here, we develop an approach based on network and percolation frameworks to study the impacts of climate changes in the past decades using historical models and reanalysis records, and we analyze the expected upcoming impacts using various future global warming scenarios. We find an abrupt transition during the evolution of the climate network, indicating a consistent poleward expansion of the largest cluster that corresponds to the tropical area, as well as the weakening of the strength of links in the tropic. This is found both in the reanalysis data and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 21st century climate change simulations. The analysis is based on high-resolution surface (2 m) air temperature field records. We discuss the underlying mechanism for the observed expansion of the tropical cluster and associate it with changes in atmospheric circulation represented by the weakening and expansion of the Hadley cell. Our framework can also be useful for forecasting the extent of the tropical cluster to detect its influence on different areas in response to global warming.}, } @article {pmid30584752, year = {2018}, author = {Xue, JY and Liu, GY}, title = {Urban energy water food land climate change nexus in the flow and policy perspective: A review.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {4226-4238}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201812.038}, pmid = {30584752}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {Intricate associations exist between the internal elements of urban ecosystems, with the adjustment in one element can exert impacts of varying degrees on others. The rapid urbanization has brought numerous challenges on the urban sustainable development. To basically solve these problems, the nexus approach needs to be adopted. We clarified three application scenarios of nexus and their corresponding definitions. Meanwhile, the development of urban nexus theory was also provided. The analysis between any two characters among energy, water, food, land and climate change (EWFLC) systems was presented from the perspective of the physical nexus and policy effect nexus, respectively. From the perspective of the physical nexus, most the present stu-dies are concentrated on the urban scale, and aim at the direct nexus, lacking of indirect nexus reaches relatively. Most of the relationships between each two characters will have positive impacts on the society or economy. From the perspective of the policy effect nexus, current policies focused on the five systems are mostly oriented to directly solve problems of targeted system. The intermediate objectives of policy implementation are mostly quantifiable. There are generally multiple indicators of the policy effect evaluations. Furthermore, an analysis framework of urban EWFLC systems simultaneously combining physical and policy nexus was proposed in this study, which aimed to help make policy selections and realize urban sustainable development.}, } @article {pmid30584728, year = {2018}, author = {DU, YD and Shen, P and Wang, H and Tang, XR and Zhao, H}, title = {Impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice in Guangdong Pro-vince, China.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {4013-4021}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201812.041}, pmid = {30584728}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {Based on the dataset of air temperature from 86 stations during 1961 to 2016, and DEM data derived from 1:250000 topographic maps, we analyzed the spatial-temporal changes of key climatic factors (safe period for double cropping rice, ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature) using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, and inverse distance weighted interpolation. The impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice was studied by combining with the changes of key climate factors for the periods of 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, before (1961-1997) and after (1998-2016) climatic mutation. The results showed that spatial distributions of safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature were different from place to place in Guangdong. Generally, they were more or higher in south than in north part, in plain than in mountain regions. Under the background of global warming, the safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated tempera-ture showed a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 1.7 d and 43 ℃·d per decade, respectively. All climatic factor had mutation in the year of 1997. According to the climatic conditions of various maturing rice growth and development, climatic zoning for double cropping rice in Guangdong could be divided into three regions: early maturity with early maturity, early maturity with late maturity, late maturity with late maturity. Those regions were distributed in middle-subtropics of northern Guangdong, south-subtropics of middle Guangdong, and north-tropics of southern Guangdong, respectively. Due to the climate change, the area of late maturity with late maturity significantly increased, the area of early maturity with late maturity significantly decreased, and the area of early maturity with early maturity showed no significant change. Relative to that in 1961-1990, the areas of late maturity with late maturity in 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 increased 1.22&times;106 hm2 and 2.56&times;106 hm2, respectively, but the area of early maturity with late maturity decreased 1.13&times;106 hm2 and 2.56&times;106 hm2, respectively. The area of late maturity with late maturity was more than doubled, but that of early maturity with late maturity decreased about a half after 1997 than that before in Guangdong.}, } @article {pmid30584107, year = {2018}, author = {Li, Y and Pizer, WA and Wu, L}, title = {Climate change and residential electricity consumption in the Yangtze River Delta, China.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1804667115}, pmid = {30584107}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Estimating the impact of climate change on energy use across the globe is essential for analysis of both mitigation and adaptation policies. Yet existing empirical estimates are concentrated in Western countries, especially the United States. We use daily data on household electricity consumption to estimate how electricity consumption would change in Shanghai in the context of climate change. For colder days <7 °C, a 1 °C increase in daily temperature reduces electricity consumption by 2.8%. On warm days >25 °C, a 1 °C increase in daily temperatures leads to a 14.5% increase in electricity consumption. As income increases, households' weather sensitivity remains the same for hotter days in the summer but increases during the winter. We use this estimated behavior in conjunction with a collection of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to construct a relationship between future annual global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes and annual residential electricity consumption. We find that annual electricity consumption increases by 9.2% per +1 °C in annual GMST. In comparison, annual peak electricity use increases by as much as 36.1% per +1 °C in annual GMST. Although most accurate for Shanghai, our findings could be most credibly extended to the urban areas in the Yangtze River Delta, covering roughly one-fifth of China's urban population and one-fourth of the gross domestic product.}, } @article {pmid30583170, year = {2018}, author = {Jeon, DJ and Ligaray, M and Kim, M and Kim, G and Lee, G and Pachepsky, YA and Cha, DH and Cho, KH}, title = {Evaluating the influence of climate change on the fate and transport of fecal coliform bacteria using the modified SWAT model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {753-762}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.213}, pmid = {30583170}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) contamination of natural waters is a serious public health issue. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the fate and transport of FCB are important for reducing the risk of contracting diseases. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of climate change on the fate and transport of FCB. We modified both the soil and the in-stream bacteria modules in the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and verified the prediction accuracy of seasonal variability of FCB loads using observations. Forty bias-correcting GCM-RCM projections were applied in the modified SWAT model to examine various future climate conditions at the end of this century (2076-2100). Lastly, we also compared the variability of FCB loads under current and future weather conditions using multi-model ensemble simulations (MMES). The modified SWAT model yielded a satisfactory performance with regard to the seasonal variability of FCB amounts in the soil and FCB loading to water bodies. The modified SWAT model presented substantial proliferation of FCB in the soil (30.1%-147.5%) due to an increase in temperature (25.1%). Also, increase in precipitation (53.3%) led to an increase in FCB loads (96.0%-115.5%) from the soil to water body. In the in-stream environment, resuspension from the stream bed was the dominant process affecting the amount of FCB in stream. Therefore, the final FCB loads increased by 71.2% because of the growing peak channel velocity and volume of water used due to an increase in precipitation. Based on the results of MMES, we concluded that the level of FCB would increase simultaneously in the soil as well as in stream by the end of this century. This study will aid in understanding the future variability of FCB loads as well as in preparing an effective management plan for FCB levels in natural waters.}, } @article {pmid30579964, year = {2018}, author = {Huo, D and Sun, L and Zhang, L and Ru, X and Liu, S and Yang, X and Yang, H}, title = {Global-warming-caused changes of temperature and oxygen alter the proteomic profile of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus.}, journal = {Journal of proteomics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jprot.2018.12.020}, pmid = {30579964}, issn = {1876-7737}, abstract = {Multiple environmental stressors caused by global warming influence the regulation of proteins involved in various biological processes in aquatic organisms. As an important component of the marine ecosystem, sea cucumber is a suitable echinoderm species for researching stress responses. In this study, we have investigated the proteomic response of respiratory trees in the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus, challenged with environmental stresses by using the iTRAQ technique. Results showed that 262, 155 and 433 proteins were differentially regulated in response to heat, hypoxia, and heat plus hypoxia, respectively. Expression of key genes and proteins were measured by real-time PCR and western blot to validate the accuracy of the proteome files. Results showed that the interaction between these two stressors has an additive effect at the proteome level. Proteins involved in amino acid and carbohydrate metabolic processes were largely induced by heat while repressed by hypoxia. Exposure to multiple climate change stressors caused several proteins involved in lipid metabolic progress to be down-regulated and lipid catabolic processes were induced. Additionally, hypoxia and the combined stress induced proteins involved in iron homeostasis. ATP synthesis and gluconeogenesis were induced under heat and the combined stress, while ATP and glycogen synthesis were depressed under hypoxia. Proteins related with immune and defense response were largely induced and protein synthesis ability was depressed under all three stresses. Thus, sea cucumber may adopt different strategies to cope with varied environmental stress, and the situation in heat group is more similar with the combined treatment than hypoxia group. These proteomic changes in response to high-temperature and low-oxygen levels may provide insights into the defense strategies of sea cucumber in response to global climate changes. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY: The study focused on comparative quantitative proteomics on Apostichopus japonicus respiratory tree using iTRAQ in responses to multiple climate change stressors: heat, hypoxia and the combined stress. Data showed that A. japonicus can have an acute reaction in diverse biological pathways to both individual and interacting environmental stress, including substance metabolism, signal transduction, protein synthesis, immune response and energy production. Results indicated that sea cucumber adopted different strategies to cope with varied environmental stress, and the interaction between these two stressors has an additive effect at the proteome level. These results offer insight into the molecular regulation of A. japonicus to multiple environmental stress and reveal possible molecular events in sea cucumber under climate changes. The understanding of adaptive variation under global climate changes adaptation in aquatic organisms could be improved.}, } @article {pmid30577126, year = {2018}, author = {Sapkota, TB and Vetter, SH and Jat, ML and Sirohi, S and Shirsath, PB and Singh, R and Jat, HS and Smith, P and Hillier, J and Stirling, CM}, title = {Cost-effective opportunities for climate change mitigation in Indian agriculture.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {1342-1354}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.225}, pmid = {30577126}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Long-term changes in average temperatures, precipitation, and climate variability threaten agricultural production, food security, and the livelihoods of farming communities globally. Whilst adaptation to climate change is necessary to ensure food security and protect livelihoods of poor farmers, mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can lessen the extent of climate change and future needs for adaptation. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate GHG emissions without compromising food production. India is the third largest GHG emitter in the world where agriculture is responsible for 18% of total national emissions. India has identified agriculture as one of the priority sectors for GHG emission reduction in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Identification of emission hotspots and cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture can inform the prioritisation of efforts to reduce emissions without compromising food and nutrition security. We adopted a bottom-up approach to analyse GHG emissions using large datasets of India's 'cost of cultivation survey' and the '19th livestock census' together with soil, climate and management data for each location. Mitigation measures and associated costs and benefits of adoption, derived from a variety of sources including the literature, stakeholder meetings and expert opinion, were presented in the form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). We estimated that by 2030, business-as-usual GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in India would be 515 Megatonne CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) per year with a technical mitigation potential of 85.5 MtCO2e per year through adoption of various mitigation practices. About 80% of the technical mitigation potential could be achieved by adopting only cost-saving measures. Three mitigation options, i.e. efficient use of fertilizer, zero-tillage and rice-water management, could deliver more than 50% of the total technical abatement potential.}, } @article {pmid30573804, year = {2018}, author = {Woesik, RV and Köksal, S and Ünal, A and Cacciapaglia, CW and Randall, CJ}, title = {Predicting coral dynamics through climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17997}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-36169-7}, pmid = {30573804}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {OCE-1657633//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; OCE-1657633//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1535007//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Thermal-stress events are changing the composition of many coral reefs worldwide. Yet, determining the rates of coral recovery and their long-term responses to increasing sea-surface temperatures is challenging. To do so, we first estimated coral recovery rates following past disturbances on reefs in southern Japan and Western Australia. Recovery rates varied between regions, with the reefs in southern Japan showing more rapid recovery rates (intrinsic rate of increase, r = 0.38 year-1) than reefs in Western Australia (r = 0.17 year-1). Second, we input these recovery rates into a novel, nonlinear hybrid-stochastic-dynamical system to predict the responses of Indo-Pacific coral populations to complex inter-annual temperature cycles into the year 2100. The coral recovery rates were overlaid on background increases in global sea-surface temperatures, under three different climate-change scenarios. The models predicted rapid recovery at both localities with the infrequent and low-magnitude temperature anomalies expected under a conservative climate-change scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. With moderate increases in ocean temperatures (RCP 6.0) the coral populations showed a bimodal response, with model runs showing either recovery or collapse. Under a business-as-usual climate-change scenario (RCP 8.5), with frequent and intense temperature anomalies, coral recovery was unlikely.}, } @article {pmid30573189, year = {2018}, author = {Godsmark, CN and Irlam, J and van der Merwe, F and New, M and Rother, HA}, title = {Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.11.035}, pmid = {30573189}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The intersection of health and climate change is often absent or under-represented in sub-national government strategies. This analysis of the literature, using a new methodological framework, highlights priority focus areas for a sub-national government response to health and climate change, using the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa as a case study.

METHODS: A methodological framework was created to conduct a review of priority focus areas relevant for sub-national governments. The framework encompassed the establishment of a Project Steering Group consisting of relevant, sub-national stakeholders (e.g. provincial officials, public and environmental health specialists and academics); an analysis of local climatic projections as well as an analysis of global, national and sub-national health risk factors and impacts.

RESULTS: Globally, the discussion of health and climate change adaptation strategies in sub-national, or provincial government is often limited. For the case study presented, multiple health risk factors were identified. WC climatic projections include a warmer and potentially drier future with an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. WC government priority focus areas requiring further research on health risk factors include: population migration and environmental refugees, land use change, violence and human conflict and vulnerable groups. WC government priority focus areas for further research on health impacts include: mental ill-health, non-communicable diseases, injuries, poisonings (e.g. pesticides), food and nutrition insecurity-related diseases, water- and food-borne diseases and reproductive health. These areas are currently under-addressed, or not addressed at all, in the current provincial climate change strategy.

CONCLUSIONS: Sub-national government adaptation strategies often display limited discussion on the health and climate change intersect. The methodological framework presented in this case study can be globally utilized by other sub-national governments for decision-making and development of climate change and health adaptation strategies. Additionally, due to the broad range of sectoral issues identified, a primary recommendation from this study is that sub-national governments internationally should consider a "health and climate change in all policies" approach when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.}, } @article {pmid30573003, year = {2018}, author = {Rychetnik, L and Sainsbury, P and Stewart, G}, title = {How Local Health Districts can prepare for the effects of climate change: an adaptation model applied to metropolitan Sydney.}, journal = {Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1071/AH18153}, pmid = {30573003}, issn = {0156-5788}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation can be defined as a form of risk management (i.e. assessing climate change-related risks and responding appropriately so that the risks can be pre-emptively minimised and managed as they arise). Adapting to climate change by hospital and community health services will entail responding to changing health needs of the local population, and to the likely effects of climate change on health service resources, workforce and infrastructure. In this paper we apply a model that health services can use to predict and respond to climate change risks and illustrate this with reference to Sydney's Local Health Districts (LHDs). We outline the climate change predictions for the Sydney metropolitan area, discuss the resulting vulnerabilities for LHDs and consider the potential of LHDs to respond. Three 'core business' categories are examined: (1) ambulance, emergency and acute health care; (2) routine health care; and (3) population and preventative health services. We consider the key climate change risks and vulnerabilities of the LHDs' workforce, facilities and finances, and some important transboundary issues. Many Australian health services have existing robust disaster plans and management networks. These could be expanded to incorporate local climate and health adaptation plans.What is known about the topic? There is an inextricable relationship between climate change and human health, with important implications for the delivery of health services. Climate change will affect health service demand, and the resources, workforce and infrastructure of health services.What does this paper add? This paper outlines how local health services can use existing data sources and models for assessing their climate change-related risks and vulnerabilities to predict, prepare for and respond to those risks. This is illustrated with reference to Sydney's LHDs.What are the implications for practitioners? Adaptation to climate change by health services is an important component of risk management. Local health services need to prepare for the effects of climate change by assessing the risks and developing and implementing climate and health adaptation plans.}, } @article {pmid30572212, year = {2018}, author = {Zhou, Q and Leng, G and Su, J and Ren, Y}, title = {Comparison of urbanization and climate change impacts on urban flood volumes: Importance of urban planning and drainage adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {24-33}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.184}, pmid = {30572212}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the drivers behind urban floods is critical for reducing its devastating impacts to human and society. This study investigates the impacts of recent urban development on hydrological runoff and urban flood volumes in a major city located in northern China, and compares the urbanization impacts with the effects induced by climate change under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We then quantify the role of urban drainage system in mitigating flood volumes to inform future adaptation strategies. A geo-spatial database on landuse types, surface imperviousness and drainage systems is developed and used as inputs into the SWMM urban drainage model to estimate the flood volumes and related risks under various urbanization and climate change scenarios. It is found that urbanization has led to an increase in annual surface runoff by 208 to 413%, but the changes in urban flood volumes can vary greatly depending on performance of drainage system along the development. Specifically, changes caused by urbanization in expected annual flood volumes are within a range of 194 to 942%, which are much higher than the effects induced by climate change under the RCP 2.6 scenario (64 to 200%). Through comparing the impacts of urbanization and climate change on urban runoff and flood volumes, this study highlights the importance for re-assessment of current and future urban drainage in coping with the changing urban floods induced by local and large-scale changes.}, } @article {pmid30571775, year = {2018}, author = {Halofsky, JS and Conklin, DR and Donato, DC and Halofsky, JE and Kim, JB}, title = {Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: Western Washington, U.S.A.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0209490}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0209490}, pmid = {30571775}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Future vegetation shifts under changing climate are uncertain for forests with infrequent stand-replacing disturbance regimes. These high-inertia forests may have long persistence even with climate change because disturbance-free periods can span centuries, broad-scale regeneration opportunities are fewer relative to frequent-fire systems, and mature tree species are long-lived with relatively high tolerance for sub-optimal growing conditions. Here, we used a combination of empirical and process-based modeling approaches to examine vegetation projections across high-inertia forests of Washington State, USA, under different climate and wildfire futures. We ran our models without forest management (to assess inherent system behavior/potential) and also with wildfire suppression. Projections suggested relatively stable mid-elevation forests through the end of the century despite anticipated increases in wildfire. The largest changes were projected at the lowest and uppermost forest boundaries, with upward expansion of the driest low-elevation forests and contraction of cold, high-elevation subalpine parklands. While forests were overall relatively stable in simulations, increases in early-seral conditions and decreases in late-seral conditions occurred as wildfire became more frequent. With partial fire suppression, projected changes were dampened or delayed, suggesting a potential tool to forestall change in some (but not all) high-inertia forests, especially since extending fire-free periods does little to alter overall fire regimes in these systems. Model projections also illustrated the importance of fire regime context and projection limitations; the time horizon over which disturbances will eventually allow the system to shift are so long that the prevailing climatic conditions under which many of those shifts will occur are beyond what most climate models can predict with any certainty. This will present a fundamental challenge to setting expectations and managing for long-term change in these systems.}, } @article {pmid30569969, year = {2018}, author = {Hughes, FM and Côrtes-Figueira, JE and Drumond, MA}, title = {Anticipating the response of the Brazilian giant earthworm (Rhinodrilus alatus) to climate change: implications for its traditional use.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765201820180308}, pmid = {30569969}, issn = {1678-2690}, abstract = {Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing global warming on terrestrial species has increased significantly during the last several years, but how climatic change has affected, and will affect, the distribution of earthworms remains largely unknown. We used climate niche modeling to model the current distribution of the giant earthworm Rhinodrilus alatus - an endemic species of the Cerrado Domain in Brazil, which is traditionally harvested and commercialized for fishing bait. R. alatus is sensitive to environmental changes because climate, in synergy with soil attributes, determine its annual reproductive cycle and distribution. The paleoclimatic reconstructions predict important geographical shifts from LGM (~21,000 yBp) to the present potential distribution of R. alatus: range expansion, fragmentation, and shrinkage of the current core area. Further, the 2070 scenarios predict substantial shrink and losses of stable areas. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of the distribution, but will also promote significant fragmentation and a geographical shift to outside of the currently recognized geographical boundaries. In this context, populations of R. alatus would decline and traditional harvesting would collapse, requiring immediate implementation of management and conservation measures for the species and economically sustainable alternatives for the local community.}, } @article {pmid30568872, year = {2019}, author = {Graham, R and Compton, J and Meador, K}, title = {A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature authored by medical professionals regarding US biomedicine's role in responding to climate change.}, journal = {Preventive medicine reports}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {132-138}, doi = {10.1016/j.pmedr.2018.11.014}, pmid = {30568872}, issn = {2211-3355}, abstract = {Extant literature illustrates a substantive impact on human health because of climate change. Despite this, discussions of the ethical and policymaking role of US health care's response to this problem are underdeveloped within peer-reviewed literature indexed in core medical databases. We conducted a systematic literature review in August 2017 at Vanderbilt University Medical Center of the following medical, business and policy databases to examine the state of inquiry on this topic: PubMed, CINAHL, PsychINFO, JAMA Network, Health Affairs, Business Source Complete, Greylit.org, LexisNexis Academic, Proquest Dissertations and Theses Global. An initial sample of n = 4434 rendered n = 75 articles precisely addressing this question following a two-tiered systematic examination of content. US medical professionals were most concerned by the health impacts of air pollution and respiratory complications, extreme weather events, and rising infectious/vector-borne diseases. They were least concerned by rising rates of migration and stresses to sanitation systems. Medical professionals took a broadly proactive stance to the issue, highlighting the need to implement education and advocacy strategies. Politics was the least pertinent motivation for climate change-related recommendations. Furthermore, partnerships between health care and public agencies were identified as holding the greatest potential for meaningful change. Mitigation approaches were slightly more common than adaptation approaches. We conclude that, while the enthusiasm of the medical community is commendable, efforts to address climate change in US health care are overly fractured, and lack the necessary expertise for efficaciousness.}, } @article {pmid30568418, year = {2018}, author = {Jones, A}, title = {Malnutrition, Poverty, and Climate Change are also Human Rights Issues in Child Labor.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {249-251}, pmid = {30568418}, issn = {2150-4113}, } @article {pmid30568024, year = {2018}, author = {Vaidyanathan, G}, title = {Science and Culture: Imagining a climate-change future, without the dystopia.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {51}, pages = {12832-12835}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1819792116}, pmid = {30568024}, issn = {1091-6490}, } @article {pmid30567014, year = {2018}, author = {Patrício, AR and Varela, MR and Barbosa, C and Broderick, AC and Catry, P and Hawkes, LA and Regalla, A and Godley, BJ}, title = {Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14520}, pmid = {30567014}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {IF/00502/2013/CP1186/CT0003//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; SFRH/BD/85017/2012//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; UID/MAR/04292/2013//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; //MAVA Foundation/ ; RSG12317-1//Rufford Foundation/ ; RSG16357-2//Rufford Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.}, } @article {pmid30564385, year = {2018}, author = {Quiroga, MP and Premoli, AC and Kitzberger, T}, title = {Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {180513}, doi = {10.1098/rsos.180513}, pmid = {30564385}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.}, } @article {pmid30564031, year = {2018}, author = {Sfenthourakis, S and Hornung, E}, title = {Isopod distribution and climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {}, number = {801}, pages = {25-61}, doi = {10.3897/zookeys.801.23533}, pmid = {30564031}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The unique properties of terrestrial isopods regarding responses to limiting factors such as drought and temperature have led to interesting distributional patterns along climatic and other environmental gradients at both species and community level. This paper will focus on the exploration of isopod distributions in evaluating climate change effects on biodiversity at different scales, geographical regions, and environments, in view of isopods' tolerances to environmental factors, mostly humidity and temperature. Isopod distribution is tightly connected to available habitats and habitat features at a fine spatial scale, even though different species may exhibit a variety of responses to environmental heterogeneity, reflecting the large interspecific variation within the group. Furthermore, isopod distributions show some notable deviations from common global patterns, mainly as a result of their ecological features and evolutionary origins. Responses to human disturbance are not always traceable, but a trend towards community homogenisation is often found under strong global urbanisation processes. In general, even though it is still not clear how predicted climate change will affect isopod distribution, there is evidence that mixed effects are to be expected, depending on the region under study. We still lack robust and extensive analyses of isopod distributions at different scales and at different biomes, as well as applications of distribution models that might help evaluate future trends.}, } @article {pmid30564030, year = {2018}, author = {Hassall, M and Moss, A and Dixie, B and Gilroy, JJ}, title = {Interspecific variation in responses to microclimate by terrestrial isopods: implications in relation to climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {}, number = {801}, pages = {5-24}, doi = {10.3897/zookeys.801.24934}, pmid = {30564030}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The importance of considering species-specific biotic interactions when predicting feedbacks between the effects of climate change and ecosystem functions is becoming widely recognised. The responses of soil animals to predicted changes in global climate could potentially have far-reaching consequences for fluxes of soil carbon, including climatic feedbacks resulting from increased emissions of carbon dioxide from soils. The responses of soil animals to different microclimates can be summarised as norms of reaction, in order to compare phenotypic differences in traits along environmental gradients. Thermal and moisture reaction norms for physiological, behavioural and life history traits of species of terrestrial isopods differing in their morphological adaptations for reducing water loss are presented. Gradients of moisture reaction norms for respiratory rates and thermal reaction norms for water loss, for a species from the littoral zone were steeper than those for species from mesic environments. Those for mesic species were steeper than for those from xeric habitats. Within mesic species, gradients of thermal reaction norms for aggregation were steeper for Oniscusasellus than for Porcellioscaber or Armadilliumvulgare, and moisture reaction norms for sheltering and feeding behaviours were steeper for Philosciamuscorum than for either P.scaber or A.vulgare. These differences reflect differences in body shape, permeability of the cuticle, and development of pleopodal lungs. The implications of differences between different species of soil animals in response to microclimate on the possible influence of the soil fauna on soil carbon dynamics under future climates are discussed. In conclusion a modelling approach to bridging the inter-disciplinary gap between carbon cycling and the biology of soil animals is recommended.}, } @article {pmid30561914, year = {2016}, author = {Tullai-McGuinness, S and Berry, P and Chaudry, R}, title = {The Reality of Climate Change on Health.}, journal = {Ohio nurses review}, volume = {91}, number = {5}, pages = {12-3, 15}, pmid = {30561914}, issn = {0030-0993}, } @article {pmid30559441, year = {2018}, author = {Klesse, S and DeRose, RJ and Guiterman, CH and Lynch, AM and O'Connor, CD and Shaw, JD and Evans, MEK}, title = {Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the southwestern United States.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {5336}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-07800-y}, pmid = {30559441}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate-tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41-59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples.}, } @article {pmid30557386, year = {2018}, author = {Silva, CR and Ribas, CC and Da Silva, MNF and Leite, RN and Catzeflis, F and Rogers, DS and De Thoisy, B}, title = {The role of Pleistocene climate change in the genetic variability, distribution and demography of Proechimys cuvieri and P. guyannensis (Rodentia: Echimyidae) in northeastern Amazonia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0206660}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0206660}, pmid = {30557386}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The spiny rats, genus Proechimys, have the highest species richness within the Echimyidae family, as well as species with high genetic variability. The genus distribution includes tropical South America and Central America south to Honduras. In this study, we evaluate the phylogeographic histories of Proechimys guyannensis and P. cuvieri using cytochrome b, in a densely sampled area in northeastern Amazon where both species are found in sympatry in different environments. For each species, Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analysis were congruent and recovered similar clades in the studied area. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using a relaxed molecular clock showed that these clusters of haplotypes diversified during Pleistocene for both species. Apparently, the large rivers of the region did not act as barriers, as some clades include specimens collected from opposite banks of Oiapoque, Araguari and Jari rivers. Bayesian skyline plot analysis showed recent demographic expansion in both species. The Pleistocene climatic changes in concert with the geologic changes in the Amazon fan probably acted as drivers in the diversification that we detected in these two spiny rats. Proechimys cuvieri and P. guyannensis show genetic structure in the eastern part of the Guiana region. Greater genetic distances observed in P. guyannensis, associated with highly structured groups, suggest that more detailed studies of systematics and ecology should be directed to this species.}, } @article {pmid30555728, year = {2018}, author = {McCauley, SJ and Hammond, JI and Mabry, KE}, title = {Simulated climate change increases larval mortality, alters phenology, and affects flight morphology of a dragonfly.}, journal = {Ecosphere (Washington, D.C)}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ecs2.2151}, pmid = {30555728}, issn = {2150-8925}, abstract = {For organisms with complex life cycles, climate change can have both direct effects and indirect effects that are mediated through plastic responses to temperature and that carry over beyond the developmental environment. We examined multiple responses to environmental warming in a dragonfly, a species whose life history bridges aquatic and terrestrial environments. We tested larval survival under warming and whether warmer conditions can create carry-over effects between life history stages. Rearing dragonfly larvae in an experimental warming array to simulate increases in temperature, we contrasted the effects of the current thermal environment with temperatures +2.5°C and +5°C above ambient, temperatures predicted for 50 and 100 years in the future for the study region. Aquatic mesocosms were stocked with dragonfly larvae (Erythemis collocata) and we followed survival of larvae to adult emergence. We also measured the effects of warming on the timing of the life history transition to the adult stage, body size of adults, and the relative size of their wings, an aspect of morphology key to flight performance. There was a trend toward reduced larval survival with increasing temperature. Warming strongly affected the phenology of adult emergence, advancing emergence by up to a month compared with ambient conditions. Additionally, our warmest conditions increased variation in the timing of adult emergence compared with cooler conditions. The increased variation with warming arose from an extended emergence season with fewer individuals emerging at any one time. Altered emergence patterns such as we observed are likely to place individuals emerging outside the typical season at greater risk from early and late season storms and will reduce effective population sizes during the breeding season. Contrary to expectations for ectotherms, body size was unaffected by warming. However, morphology was affected: at +5°C, dragonflies emerging from mesocosms had relatively smaller wings. This provides some of the first evidence that the effects of climate change on animals during their growth can have carry-over effects in morphology that will affect performance of later life history stages. In dragonflies, relatively smaller wings are associated with reduced flight performance, creating a link between larval thermal conditions and adult dispersal capacity.}, } @article {pmid30555447, year = {2018}, author = {Rodríguez, J and Gallampois, CMJ and Timonen, S and Andersson, A and Sinkko, H and Haglund, P and Berglund, ÅMM and Ripszam, M and Figueroa, D and Tysklind, M and Rowe, O}, title = {Effects of Organic Pollutants on Bacterial Communities Under Future Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {2926}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2018.02926}, pmid = {30555447}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and can be strongly influenced by climate change, anthropogenic activities (e.g., pollution), and a combination of the two pressures. As a result of climate change, the northern hemisphere is predicted to undergo an increased precipitation regime, leading in turn to higher terrestrial runoff and increased river inflow. This increased runoff will transfer terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) and anthropogenic contaminants to coastal waters. Such changes can directly influence the resident biology, particularly at the base of the food web, and can influence the partitioning of contaminants and thus their potential impact on the food web. Bacteria have been shown to respond to high tDOM concentration and organic pollutants loads, and could represent the entry of some pollutants into coastal food webs. We carried out a mesocosm experiment to determine the effects of: (1) increased tDOM concentration, (2) organic pollutant exposure, and (3) the combined effect of these two factors, on pelagic bacterial communities. This study showed significant responses in bacterial community composition under the three environmental perturbations tested. The addition of tDOM increased bacterial activity and diversity, while the addition of organic pollutants led to an overall reduction of these parameters, particularly under concurrent elevated tDOM concentration. Furthermore, we identified 33 bacterial taxa contributing to the significant differences observed in community composition, as well as 35 bacterial taxa which responded differently to extended exposure to organic pollutants. These findings point to the potential impact of organic pollutants under future climate change conditions on the basal coastal ecosystem, as well as to the potential utility of natural bacterial communities as efficient indicators of environmental disturbance.}, } @article {pmid30555387, year = {2018}, author = {Markowitz, DM and Laha, R and Perone, BP and Pea, RD and Bailenson, JN}, title = {Immersive Virtual Reality Field Trips Facilitate Learning About Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {2364}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02364}, pmid = {30555387}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Across four studies, two controlled lab experiments and two field studies, we tested the efficacy of immersive Virtual Reality (VR) as an education medium for teaching the consequences of climate change, particularly ocean acidification. Over 270 participants from four different learning settings experienced an immersive underwater world designed to show the process and effects of rising sea water acidity. In all of our investigations, after experiencing immersive VR people demonstrated knowledge gains or inquisitiveness about climate science and in some cases, displayed more positive attitudes toward the environment after comparing pre- and post-test assessments. The analyses also revealed a potential post-hoc mechanism for the learning effects, as the more that people explored the spatial learning environment, the more they demonstrated a change in knowledge about ocean acidification. This work is unique by showing distinct learning gains or an interest in learning across a variety of participants (high school, college students, adults), measures (learning gain scores, tracking data about movement in the virtual world, qualitative responses from classroom teachers), and content (multiple versions varying in length and content about climate change were tested). Our findings explicate the opportunity to use immersive VR for environmental education and to drive information-seeking about important social issues such as climate change.}, } @article {pmid30551830, year = {2018}, author = {Tüzün, N and Stoks, R}, title = {Evolution of geographic variation in thermal performance curves in the face of climate change and implications for biotic interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {78-84}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2018.07.004}, pmid = {30551830}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {We review the recent literature on geographic variation in insect thermal performance curves (TPCs). Despite strong thermal differences, there is often no change in TPCs across geographic gradients. When shifts occur, these are mostly vertical (indicating an overall shift in performance across temperatures, that is, countergradient or cogradient variation) and less horizontal (reflecting thermal adaptation). Based on this, using a space-for-time substitution approach, we generated likely evolutionary scenarios of TPC evolution to simulate the outcome of biotic interactions under future warming. We illustrate how taking evolution of the TPCs into account may strongly impact the predicted outcome of biotic interactions under climate warming. Importantly, both the type and the magnitude of the TPC shift was identified to be crucial to determine who will be winners and losers of biotic interactions.}, } @article {pmid30551819, year = {2018}, author = {Pellissier, L and Rasmann, S}, title = {The functional decoupling of processes in alpine ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {126-132}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2018.07.005}, pmid = {30551819}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Climate change may promote the decoupling of the different above-ground and below-ground compartments of high elevation ecosystems. Along elevation gradients, a trade-off between species tolerance to cold climates and metabolic rates dictates that cold adapted organisms display a lower efficiency in decomposition, growth or herbivory. As a consequence, if dispersal or evolution under climate change is systematically faster for agents of one compartment (e.g. insect herbivores, or soil microbes, respectively) compared to others, novel and more efficient functions will arise in the alpine systems and increase fluxes of elements to and through this compartment. We illustrate this potential decoupling using a mechanistic model, where the efficiency of agents in the compartments follows the metabolic theory. To detect and forecast ecosystem decoupling under climate change, we argue that the current efficiency of agents should be measured systematically along elevation gradients. In addition, future research should investigate the impact of dispersal and evolution in response to climate change on ecosystem processes.}, } @article {pmid30550901, year = {2018}, author = {Nunfam, VF and Oosthuizen, J and Adusei-Asante, K and Van Etten, EJ and Frimpong, K}, title = {Perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers in Ghana.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {365-378}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.480}, pmid = {30550901}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Heavy physical workload for long hours coupled with increasing workplace heat exposure due to rising temperatures stemming from climate change, especially where there are inadequate prevention and control policies, adversely affect workers' health and safety, productive capacity and social well-being. However, variations in workers' concerns and awareness of occupational heat stress and climate change risks impede the effectiveness of heat stress management. A mixed method approach was used to assess climate change perceptions and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of Ghanaian mining workers. Questionnaires and focus group discussions were used to collect data from 320 respondents. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were used for data analysis. Workers' climate change risk perception, as confirmed by trends in climate data, was reasonable, but concerns about climate change effects and workplace heat exposure risks varied significantly across types of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers experienced heat-related morbidities, but the variation in heat-related morbidity experiences across the type of mining activity was not significant. However, the type of heat-related morbidities experienced by workers differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers' awareness of occupational heat stress prevention and control was adequate. The disparities in workers' awareness and use of the prevention and control measures significantly differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Occupational heat stress prevention activities should focus on workers, and a concerted effort must be made to promote workers' adaptive capacity and inform policy decisions.}, } @article {pmid30550898, year = {2018}, author = {Bai, M and Mo, X and Liu, S and Hu, S}, title = {Contributions of climate change and vegetation greening to evapotranspiration trend in a typical hilly-gully basin on the Loess Plateau, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {325-339}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.360}, pmid = {30550898}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Significant increases in vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau since the early 2000s have been well documented. However, the relevant hydrological effects are still unclear. Here, we investigated the changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from 2000 to 2016 and related them to climate change and vegetation greening in Yanhe River basin (YRB), a typical hilly-gully basin on the Loess Plateau, by using the remote-sensing based VIP model. Results showed that the annual ETa in the YRB increased significantly with a trend of 3.45 mm yr-1 (p < 0.01) and changes of ETa in summer months dominated the annual trend. Partial correlation analysis suggested that vegetation greening was the dominant driving factor of ETa inter-annual variations in 56% area of YRB. Model simulation experiments illustrated that relative contributions of NDVI, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (ETp) to the ETa trend were 93.0%, 18.1%, and -7.4%, respectively. Vegetation greening, which is closely related to the Grain for Green (GFG) afforestation, was the main driver to the long-term tendency of water consumption in the YRB. This study highlights potential water demanding conflicts between the socio-economic system and the natural ecosystem on the Loess Plateau due to the rapid vegetation expansion in this water-limited area.}, } @article {pmid30549378, year = {2018}, author = {Collalti, A and Thornton, PE and Cescatti, A and Rita, A and Borghetti, M and Nolè, A and Trotta, C and Ciais, P and Matteucci, G}, title = {The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1837}, pmid = {30549378}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in-depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non steady-state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 -enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a bio-geochemical process-based model (3D-CMCC-CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest-ageing and -structuring as well as under climate-change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 years of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon- and nitrogen-pools early in forest simulation (i.e. for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C m-2 yr-1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 t C ha-1 , when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium- to longer-time scales, and under climate-change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e. for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C m-2 yr-1 and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 t C ha-1 , when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate-change (i.e. warming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate-change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30549200, year = {2019}, author = {Asseng, S and Martre, P and Maiorano, A and Rötter, RP and O'Leary, GJ and Fitzgerald, GJ and Girousse, C and Motzo, R and Giunta, F and Babar, MA and Reynolds, MP and Kheir, AMS and Thorburn, PJ and Waha, K and Ruane, AC and Aggarwal, PK and Ahmed, M and Balkovič, J and Basso, B and Biernath, C and Bindi, M and Cammarano, D and Challinor, AJ and De Sanctis, G and Dumont, B and Eyshi Rezaei, E and Fereres, E and Ferrise, R and Garcia-Vila, M and Gayler, S and Gao, Y and Horan, H and Hoogenboom, G and Izaurralde, RC and Jabloun, M and Jones, CD and Kassie, BT and Kersebaum, KC and Klein, C and Koehler, AK and Liu, B and Minoli, S and Montesino San Martin, M and Müller, C and Naresh Kumar, S and Nendel, C and Olesen, JE and Palosuo, T and Porter, JR and Priesack, E and Ripoche, D and Semenov, MA and Stöckle, C and Stratonovitch, P and Streck, T and Supit, I and Tao, F and Van der Velde, M and Wallach, D and Wang, E and Webber, H and Wolf, J and Xiao, L and Zhang, Z and Zhao, Z and Zhu, Y and Ewert, F}, title = {Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {155-173}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14481}, pmid = {30549200}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {20120097110042//National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China/ ; //International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)/ ; //Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project/ ; //CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)/ ; //CGIAR Research Program on Wheat/ ; //EU Marie Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme/ ; //French National Institute for Agricultural Research/ ; //National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China/ ; //Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions/ ; 41571088//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41571493//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; //German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF)/ ; //Rothamsted Research/ ; //Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/ ; //Innovation Fund Denmark/ ; //China Scholarship Council/ ; //Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies/ ; //Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM)/ ; //Academy of Finland/ ; //German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF)/ ; //Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources/ ; //Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources/ ; //University of Melbourne/ ; //Grains Research Development Corporation, Australia/ ; //Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture/ ; //German Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.}, } @article {pmid30548989, year = {2018}, author = {Dorado-Liñán, I and Piovesan, G and Martínez-Sancho, E and Gea-Izquierdo, G and Zang, C and Cañellas, I and Castagneri, D and Di Filippo, A and Gutiérrez, E and Ewald, J and Fernández-de-Uña, L and Hornstein, D and Jantsch, MC and Levanič, T and Mellert, KH and Vacchiano, G and Zlatanov, T and Menzel, A}, title = {Geographical adaptation prevails over species-specific determinism in trees' vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear-edge forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14544}, pmid = {30548989}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short-term extreme events as well as gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species' limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short and long-term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emissions scenarios using a multispecies Generalized Linear Mixed Model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species' vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically-limited sites. Second, estimated species-specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought-tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species-specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine-scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30546038, year = {2018}, author = {Howard, AF}, title = {Asclepias Syriaca (Common Milkweed) flowering date shift in response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17802}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-36152-2}, pmid = {30546038}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The consequences of altered flowering dates due to climate change can be severe, especially for plants that rely on coordinated flower and pollinator emergence for reproduction. The plant Asclepias syriaca (Common Milkweed) relies on pollinators for movement of its pollen and evidence suggests that it has recently been declining. Given these factors and this plant's importance as a host species for the declining Danaus plexippus (Monarch Butterfly), it is critical to determine if its flowering is being modified by climate change. As a first step to answering this question I quantified the relationship between climate and flowering date for A. syriaca using data from the USA National Phenology Network repository and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. I found that temperatures were higher than they had been historically (1895-2010) and mean flowering dates occurred earlier with higher temperatures. Additionally, there is a significant negative interactive effect of temperature and year on flowering date indicating that from 2011 through 2016 higher temperatures are correlated with increasingly earlier flowering dates. The change in flowering appears to be symmetrical in regards to the flowering time distribution, in that along with the mean, both maximum and minimum flowering dates are occurring earlier, as well. There is no evidence that earlier flowering is due to earlier initial growth or results in later fruit ripening. Consequences of this shift in flowering can only be speculated upon at this point, but due to the ecological importance of A. syriaca and its susceptibility to phenological mismatch, they should be considered when developing conservation plans for A. syriaca and the organisms for which it is a host.}, } @article {pmid30544616, year = {2018}, author = {Pragna, P and Chauhan, SS and Sejian, V and Leury, BJ and Dunshea, FR}, title = {Climate Change and Goat Production: Enteric Methane Emission and Its Mitigation.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani8120235}, pmid = {30544616}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {The ability of an animal to cope and adapt itself to the changing climate virtually depends on the function of rumen and rumen inhabitants such as bacteria, protozoa, fungi, virus and archaea. Elevated ambient temperature during the summer months can have a significant influence on the basic physiology of the rumen, thereby affecting the nutritional status of the animals. Rumen volatile fatty acid (VFA) production decreases under conditions of extreme heat. Growing recent evidence suggests there are genetic variations among breeds of goats in the impact of heat stress on rumen fermentation pattern and VFA production. Most of the effects of heat stress on rumen fermentation and enteric methane (CH₄) emission are attributed to differences in the rumen microbial population. Heat stress-induced rumen function impairment is mainly associated with an increase in Streptococcus genus bacteria and with a decrease in the bacteria of Fibrobactor genus. Apart from its major role in global warming and greenhouse effect, enteric CH4 is also considered as a dietary energy loss in goats. These effects warrant mitigating against CH₄ production to ensure optimum economic return from goat farming as well as to reduce the impact on global warming as CH₄ is one of the more potent greenhouse gases (GHG). The various strategies that can be implemented to mitigate enteric CH4 emission include nutritional interventions, different management strategies and applying advanced biotechnological tools to find solution to reduce CH₄ production. Through these advanced technologies, it is possible to identify genetically superior animals with less CH₄ production per unit feed intake. These efforts can help the farming community to sustain goat production in the changing climate scenario.}, } @article {pmid30542175, year = {2018}, author = {Ham, YG}, title = {El Niño events will intensify under global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7735}, pages = {192-193}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07638-w}, pmid = {30542175}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30542169, year = {2018}, author = {Searchinger, TD and Wirsenius, S and Beringer, T and Dumas, P}, title = {Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7735}, pages = {249-253}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0757-z}, pmid = {30542169}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Land-use changes are critical for climate policy because native vegetation and soils store abundant carbon and their losses from agricultural expansion, together with emissions from agricultural production, contribute about 20 to 25 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions1,2. Most climate strategies require maintaining or increasing land-based carbon3 while meeting food demands, which are expected to grow by more than 50 per cent by 20501,2,4. A finite global land area implies that fulfilling these strategies requires increasing global land-use efficiency of both storing carbon and producing food. Yet measuring the efficiency of land-use changes from the perspective of greenhouse gas emissions is challenging, particularly when land outputs change, for example, from one food to another or from food to carbon storage in forests. Intuitively, if a hectare of land produces maize well and forest poorly, maize should be the more efficient use of land, and vice versa. However, quantifying this difference and the yields at which the balance changes requires a common metric that factors in different outputs, emissions from different agricultural inputs (such as fertilizer) and the different productive potentials of land due to physical factors such as rainfall or soils. Here we propose a carbon benefits index that measures how changes in the output types, output quantities and production processes of a hectare of land contribute to the global capacity to store carbon and to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions. This index does not evaluate biodiversity or other ecosystem values, which must be analysed separately. We apply the index to a range of land-use and consumption choices relevant to climate policy, such as reforesting pastures, biofuel production and diet changes. We find that these choices can have much greater implications for the climate than previously understood because standard methods for evaluating the effects of land use4-11 on greenhouse gas emissions systematically underestimate the opportunity of land to store carbon if it is not used for agriculture.}, } @article {pmid30523096, year = {2018}, author = {Kump, L}, title = {Climate change and marine mass extinction.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6419}, pages = {1113-1114}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav736}, pmid = {30523096}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; }, } @article {pmid30523040, year = {2018}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {Health gains make actions to curb climate change cost neutral, says WHO.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k5197}, pmid = {30523040}, issn = {1756-1833}, } @article {pmid30541052, year = {2018}, author = {Dolezal, J and Dvorsky, M and Kopecky, M and Altman, J and Mudrak, O and Capkova, K and Rehakova, K and Macek, M and Liancourt, P}, title = {Functionally distinct assembly of vascular plants colonizing alpine cushions suggests their vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcy207}, pmid = {30541052}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {Background and Aims: Alpine cushion plants can initially facilitate other species during ecological succession, but later on can be negatively affected by their development, especially when beneficiaries possess traits allowing them to overrun their host. This can be reinforced by accelerated warming favouring competitively strong species over cold-adapted cushion specialists. However, little empirical research has addressed the trait-based mechanisms of these interactions. The ecological strategies of plants colonizing the cushion plant Thylacospermum caespitosum (Caryophyllaceae), a dominant pioneer of subnival zones, were studied in the Western Himalayas.

Methods: To assess whether the cushion colonizers are phylogenetically and functionally distinct, 1668 vegetation samples were collected, both in open ground outside the cushions and inside their live and dead canopies, in two mountain ranges, Karakoram and Little Tibet. More than 50 plant traits related to growth, biomass allocation and resource acquisition were measured for target species, and the phylogenetic relationships of these species were studied [or determined].

Key Results: Species-based trait-environment analysis with phylogenetic correction showed that in both mountain ranges Thylacospermum colonizers are phylogenetically diverse but functionally similar and are functionally different from species preferring bare soil outside cushions. Successful colonizers are fast-growing, clonal graminoids and forbs, penetrating the cushion by rhizomes and stolons. They have higher root-to-shoot ratios, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and soil moisture and nutrient demands, sharing the syndrome of competitive species with broad elevation ranges typical of the late stages of primary succession. In contrast, the species from open ground have traits typical of stress-tolerant specialists from high and dry environments.

Conclusion: Species colonizing tight cushions of T. caespitosum are competitively strong graminoids and herbaceous perennials from alpine grasslands. Since climate change in the Himalayas favours these species, highly specialized subnival cushion plants may face intense competition and a greater risk of decline in the future.}, } @article {pmid30540743, year = {2018}, author = {Gareau, BJ and Huang, X and Gareau, TP}, title = {Social and ecological conditions of cranberry production and climate change attitudes in New England.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0207237}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0207237}, pmid = {30540743}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Cranberry growers in New England are increasingly pressured by negative effects associated with global climate change, some of which are familiar to this group (such as precipitation fluctuations and pest pressures), others that are rather new (such as warmer winters that threaten needed chill hours for the plants to bloom). The first study of this population of its kind, we use a survey, supplemented with observations and interviews, to assess Massachusetts cranberry grower attitudes towards climate change, and whether certain conditions of production might be associated with their attitudes. Our findings suggest that certain personal and ecological conditions are associated with greater worry of climate change effects, and that communal conditions of the cranberry grower social network provide some ways to cope with a warming climate. While the cranberry growing community has created a strong social network that has allowed it to sustain production, a warming planet will likely require significant change in order to overcome general attitudes of climate skepticism so that cranberry production may continue in the future.}, } @article {pmid30537359, year = {2018}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Horton, KG and Nilsson, C and Dokter, AM}, title = {Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14531}, pmid = {30537359}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//The Wolf Creek Charitable Foundation/ ; 1356308//National Science Foundation, Division of Biological Infrastructure/ ; 1661329//National Science Foundation, Division of Biological Infrastructure/ ; //AWS Cloud Credits for Research/ ; }, abstract = {Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.}, } @article {pmid30530689, year = {2018}, author = {Hof, C and Voskamp, A and Biber, MF and Böhning-Gaese, K and Engelhardt, EK and Niamir, A and Willis, SG and Hickler, T}, title = {Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1807745115}, pmid = {30530689}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate their potential combined impacts on global vertebrate diversity under a low- and a high-level emission scenario. We combine climate-based species distribution models for the world's amphibians, birds, and mammals with land-use change simulations and identify areas threatened by both climate and land-use change in the future. The combined projected effects of climate and land-use change on vertebrate diversity are similar under the two scenarios, with land-use change effects being stronger under the low- and climate change effects under the high-emission scenario. Under the low-emission scenario, increases in bioenergy cropland may cause severe impacts in biodiversity that are not compensated by lower climate change impacts. Under this low-emission scenario, larger proportions of species distributions and a higher number of small-range species may become impacted by the combination of land-use and climate change than under the high-emission scenario, largely a result of bioenergy cropland expansion. Our findings highlight the need to carefully consider both climate and land-use change when projecting biodiversity impacts. We show that biodiversity is likely to suffer severely if bioenergy cropland expansion remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Our study calls for an immediate and significant reduction in energy consumption for the benefit of both biodiversity and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.}, } @article {pmid30529965, year = {2018}, author = {Dong, Z and Driscoll, CT and Johnson, SL and Campbell, JL and Pourmokhtarian, A and Stoner, AMK and Hayhoe, K}, title = {Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range using a biogeochemical model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {608-624}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.377}, pmid = {30529965}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from four General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were applied as inputs to a biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to examine potential future dynamics of water, carbon, and nitrogen in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range. Projections show 56% to 77% increases in stomatal conductance throughout the year from 1986-2010 to 2076-2100, and 65% to 104% increases in leaf carbon assimilation between October and June over the same period. However, future dynamics of water and carbon under the RCP scenarios are affected by a 49% to 86% reduction in foliar biomass resulting from severe air temperature and humidity stress to the forest in summer. Important implications of future decreases in foliar biomass include 1) 20% to 71% decreases in annual transpiration which increase soil moisture by 7% to 15% in summer and fall; 2) decreases in photosynthesis by 77% and soil organic matter by 62% under the high radiative forcing scenario; and 3) altered foliar and soil carbon to nitrogen stoichiometry. Potential carbon dioxide fertilization effects on vegetation are projected to 1) amplify decreases in transpiration by 4% to 9% and increases in soil moisture in summer and fall by 1% to 2%; and 2) alleviate decreases in photosynthesis by 4%; while 3) having negligible effects on the dynamics of nitrogen. Our projections suggest that future decrease in transpiration and moderate water holding capacity may mitigate soil moisture stress to the old-growth Douglas-fir forest. Future increases in nitrogen concentration in soil organic matter are projected to alleviate the decrease in net nitrogen mineralization despite a reduction in decomposition of soil organic matter by the end of the century.}, } @article {pmid30529418, year = {2018}, author = {Terzi, S and Torresan, S and Schneiderbauer, S and Critto, A and Zebisch, M and Marcomini, A}, title = {Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {232}, number = {}, pages = {759-771}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100}, pmid = {30529418}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment. According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socio-economic systems, towards climate change adaptation. Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them. Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions. The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty management, cross-sectoral assessment, adaptation measures integration, data required and level of complexity). The results show limited applications of the selected methodologies in addressing the climate and risks challenge in mountain environments. In particular, system dynamic and hybrid models demonstrate higher potential for further applications to represent climate change effects on multi-risk processes for an effective implementation of climate adaptation strategies.}, } @article {pmid30529236, year = {2018}, author = {Zhu, L and Wang, L and Ma, CS}, title = {Sporadic short temperature events cannot be neglected in predicting impacts of climate change on small insects.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2018.12.003}, pmid = {30529236}, issn = {1879-1611}, abstract = {Climate warming is characterized by increase in extreme heat events (EHEs). EHEs and mild temperature periods alternate with each other and form complex climate scenarios. Among these scenarios, low-frequency and short-duration extreme heat events during long mild periods (sporadic short EHEs) and low-frequency and short-duration mild periods during long extreme heat events (sporadic short mild periods) commonly occur in nature. The biological effects of these two types of temperature events have not been thoroughly elucidated to date. To clarify the biological effects of these temperature events on organisms, we selected the English grain aphid, a globally important cereal pest, as our model system. We exposed aphids to simulated 24-h diurnal fluctuating temperatures, inserted these events during the wheat growing season and then investigated development, adult longevity, fecundity, survival, and demographic parameters. We found that sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE could improve their life history traits. Increasing the duration of mild periods from 1 day to 2 days did not significantly change their demographic performance. Sporadic short EHEs during a long mild period did not significantly affect vital rates, while increasing the duration of EHEs from 1 day to 2 days worsened the aphids' performance. We found that short mild episodes in the hot season may benefit small insects to buffer long duration heatwaves. We discussed how sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE supplied aphids a chance to recover from heat stress. Thus, we suggest that sporadic temperature events should be considered in population prediction of small insects under climate change and should be integrated into pest management.}, } @article {pmid30527411, year = {2018}, author = {Turner, B}, title = {Tackling antimicrobial resistance and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10163}, pages = {2435-2436}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32413-9}, pmid = {30527411}, issn = {1474-547X}, } @article {pmid30526940, year = {2018}, author = {Andrews, O and Le Quéré, C and Kjellstrom, T and Lemke, B and Haines, A}, title = {Implications for workability and survivability in populations exposed to extreme heat under climate change: a modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {e540-e547}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30240-7}, pmid = {30526940}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Changes in temperature and humidity due to climate change affect living and working conditions. An understanding of the effects of different global temperature changes on population health is needed to inform the continued implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement and to increase global ambitions for greater cuts in emissions. By use of historical and projected climate conditions, we aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on workability (ie, the ability to work) and survivability (the ability to survive).

METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the changes in populations exposed to excessive heat stress between the recent past (ie, 1986-2005) and 2100. We used climate data from four models to calculate the wet-bulb globe temperature, an established heat exposure index that can be used to assess the effects of temperature, humidity, and other environmental factors on humans. We defined and applied thresholds for risks to workability (where the monthly mean of daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds 34°C) and survivability (where the maximum daily wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds 40°C for 3 consecutive days), and we used population projections to quantify changes in risk associated with different changes to the global temperature.

FINDINGS: The risks to workability increase substantially with global mean surface temperature in all four climate models, with approximately 1 billion people affected globally after an increase in the global temperature of about 2·5°C above pre-industrial levels. There is greater variability between climate models for exposures above the threshold for risks to survivability than for risks to workability. The number of people who are likely to be exposed to heat stress exceeding the survivability threshold increases with global temperature change, to reach around 20 million people globally after an increase of about 2·5°C, estimated from the median of the models, but with a large model uncertainty. More people are likely to be exposed to heat stress in urban than in rural areas. Population exposure can fluctuate over time and change substantially within one decade.

INTERPRETATION: Exposure to excessive heat stress is projected to be widespread in tropical or subtropical low-income and middle-income countries, highlighting the need to build on the Paris Agreement regarding global temperature targets, to protect populations who have contributed little to greenhouse gas emissions. The non-linear dependency of heat exposure risk on temperature highlights the importance of understanding thresholds in coupled human-climate systems.

FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.}, } @article {pmid30526935, year = {2018}, author = {Landrigan, P and Fuller, R and Haines, A and Watts, N and McCarthy, G}, title = {Pollution prevention and climate change mitigation: measuring the health benefits of comprehensive interventions.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {e515-e516}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30226-2}, pmid = {30526935}, issn = {2542-5196}, } @article {pmid30521450, year = {2018}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Zhang, Y}, title = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives(Summary).}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {11}, pages = {474-475}, pmid = {30521450}, issn = {1326-5377}, } @article {pmid30521429, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, Y and Beggs, PJ and Bambrick, H and Berry, HL and Linnenluecke, MK and Trueck, S and Alders, R and Bi, P and Boylan, SM and Green, D and Guo, Y and Hanigan, IC and Hanna, EG and Malik, A and Morgan, GG and Stevenson, M and Tong, S and Watts, N and Capon, AG}, title = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {11}, pages = {474}, pmid = {30521429}, issn = {1326-5377}, abstract = {Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia's engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.}, } @article {pmid30518902, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, Y and Ramanathan, V and Victor, DG}, title = {Global warming will happen faster than we think.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7734}, pages = {30-32}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07586-5}, pmid = {30518902}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30518295, year = {2018}, author = {Slatin, C}, title = {Climate Change Action Requires Unity Among Movements for Justice and Peace.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1048291118815900}, doi = {10.1177/1048291118815900}, pmid = {30518295}, issn = {1541-3772}, } @article {pmid30518045, year = {2018}, author = {Yu, Q and Wang, F and Yan, W and Zhang, F and Lv, S and Li, Y}, title = {Carbon and Nitrogen Burial and Response to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Disturbance in Chaohu Lake, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15122734}, pmid = {30518045}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {41371454//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Lakes are a crucial component of the global carbon and nitrogen cycle. As a trend of enhanced human activities and climate change, the mechanisms of burial remain poorly understood. In this study, diverse biogeochemical techniques were applied to analyze the temporal variation of organic carbon and nitrogen burial rates in Chaohu Lake. The results showed that burial rates have ranged from 9.39 to 35.87 g C m-2 yr-1 for carbon and from 1.66 to 5.67 g N m-2 yr-1 for nitrogen since the 1860s. The average rates were 19.6 g C m-2 yr-1 and 3.14 g N m-2 yr-1 after the 1970s, which were significantly higher than the rate before the 1970s, showing an increasing trend. The decrease of C/N ratios as well as organic matter δ13C values indicates that the major organic matter source in sediment has been algal production since the 1970s. The increase of δ15N values indicated that the promotion in productivity was stimulated by nutrient input from sewage and agricultural runoff. The burial rates of organic carbon and nitrogen were significantly positively related to socio-economics and temperature, indicating that Chaohu Lake will become an increasing carbon and nitrogen pool under conditions of enhanced human activities and intensive precipitation.}, } @article {pmid30507972, year = {2018}, author = {Olusanya, HO and van Zyll de Jong, M}, title = {Assessing the vulnerability of freshwater fishes to climate change in Newfoundland and Labrador.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0208182}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0208182}, pmid = {30507972}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Freshwater fish populations are rapidly declining globally due to the impacts of rapid climate change and existing non-climatic anthropogenic stressors. In response to these drivers, freshwater fishes are responding by shifting their distribution range, altering the timing of migration and spawning and through demographic processes. By 2050, the mean daily air temperature is predicted to increase by 2 to 3 degrees C in insular Newfoundland and by 3 to 4 degrees C in Labrador. Mean daily precipitation is also projected to increase in all locations, with increased intensity projected for several regions. To mitigate negative consequences of these changes, managers require analytical approaches that describe the vulnerability of fish to climate change. To address this need, the current study adopts the National Marine Fisheries Service vulnerability assessment framework to characterize the vulnerability of freshwater fishes in Newfoundland and Labrador. Twelve vulnerability indicators were developed from an extensive literature review and applied to the assessment. Experts were solicited using an online questionnaire survey and scores for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were collated and analyzed to derive a final vulnerability score and rank for each species. The analysis showed one species to be of high-very high vulnerability, two species were highly vulnerable while four species were moderately vulnerable to climate change. The result provides insight into the factors that drive vulnerability of freshwater fishes in the region, this information is significant to decision-makers and other stakeholders engaged in managing freshwater fish resources in Newfoundland and Labrador.}, } @article {pmid30503045, year = {2018}, author = {Watts, N and Amann, M and Arnell, N and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Belesova, K and Berry, H and Bouley, T and Boykoff, M and Byass, P and Cai, W and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Chambers, J and Daly, M and Dasandi, N and Davies, M and Depoux, A and Dominguez-Salas, P and Drummond, P and Ebi, KL and Ekins, P and Montoya, LF and Fischer, H and Georgeson, L and Grace, D and Graham, H and Hamilton, I and Hartinger, S and Hess, J and Kelman, I and Kiesewetter, G and Kjellstrom, T and Kniveton, D and Lemke, B and Liang, L and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Sewe, MO and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and Mikhaylov, SJ and Milner, J and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Murray, K and Nilsson, M and Neville, T and Oreszczyn, T and Owfi, F and Pearman, O and Pencheon, D and Pye, S and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, E and Rocklöv, J and Saxer, O and Schütte, S and Semenza, JC and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Steinbach, R and Tabatabaei, M and Tomei, J and Trinanes, J and Wheeler, N and Wilkinson, P and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32594-7}, pmid = {30503045}, issn = {1474-547X}, } @article {pmid30503043, year = {2018}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Humanising health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)33016-2}, pmid = {30503043}, issn = {1474-547X}, } @article {pmid30515228, year = {2018}, author = {Hess, JJ and Lm, S and Knowlton, K and Saha, S and Dutta, P and Ganguly, P and Tiwari, A and Jaiswal, A and Sheffield, P and Sarkar, J and Bhan, SC and Begda, A and Shah, T and Solanki, B and Mavalankar, D}, title = {Building Resilience to Climate Change: Pilot Evaluation of the Impact of India's First Heat Action Plan on All-Cause Mortality.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2018}, number = {}, pages = {7973519}, doi = {10.1155/2018/7973519}, pmid = {30515228}, issn = {1687-9813}, abstract = {Background: Ahmedabad implemented South Asia's first heat action plan (HAP) after a 2010 heatwave. This study evaluates the HAP's impact on all-cause mortality in 2014-2015 relative to a 2007-2010 baseline.

Methods: We analyzed daily maximum temperature (Tmax)-mortality relationships before and after HAP. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) for daily mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models and mortality incidence rates (IRs) for HAP warning days, comparing pre- and post-HAP periods, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs). We estimated the number of deaths avoided after HAP implementation using pre- and post-HAP IRs.

Results: The maximum pre-HAP RR was 2.34 (95%CI 1.98-2.76) at 47°C (lag 0), and the maximum post-HAP RR was 1.25 (1.02-1.53) estimated at 47°C (lag 0). Post-to-pre-HAP nonlagged mortality IRR for Tmax over 40°C was 0.95 (0.73-1.22) and 0.73 (0.29-1.81) for Tmax over 45°C. An estimated 1,190 (95%CI 162-2,218) average annualized deaths were avoided in the post-HAP period.

Conclusion: Extreme heat and HAP warnings after implementation were associated with decreased summertime all-cause mortality rates, with largest declines at highest temperatures. Ahmedabad's plan can serve as a guide for other cities attempting to increase resilience to extreme heat.}, } @article {pmid30504017, year = {2018}, author = {Sarkodie, SA and Strezov, V}, title = {Economic, social and governance adaptation readiness for mitigation of climate change vulnerability: Evidence from 192 countries.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {150-164}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.349}, pmid = {30504017}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Adaptation strategies have become critical in climate change mitigation and impact reduction, to safeguard population and the ecosystem from irreparable damage. While developed countries have integrated adaptation plans and policies into their developmental agenda, developing countries are facilitating or yet to initiate adaptation policies in their development. This study examines the nexus between climate change vulnerability and adaptation readiness in 192 UN countries using mapping and panel data models. The study reveals Africa as the most vulnerable continent to climate change with high sensitivity, high exposure, and low adaptive capacity. Developed countries, including Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Spain, and Germany, are less vulnerable to climate change due to strong economic, governance and social adaptation readiness. International commitment from developed countries to developing countries is essential to strengthen their resilience, economic readiness and adaptive capacity to climate-related events.}, } @article {pmid30512074, year = {2018}, author = {Mukundan, R and Scheerer, M and Gelda, RK and Owens, EM}, title = {Probabilistic Estimation of Stream Turbidity and Application under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {1522-1529}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2018.06.0229}, pmid = {30512074}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Streamflow-based rating curves are widely used to estimate turbidity or suspended sediment concentrations in streams. However, such estimates are often inaccurate at the event scale due to inter- and intra-event variability in sediment-streamflow relationships. In this study, we use a quantile regression approach to derive a probabilistic distribution of turbidity predictions for Esopus Creek, a major stream in one of the watersheds that supply drinking water to New York City, using measured daily mean streamflow-turbidity data pairs for 2003 to 2016. Although a single regression curve can underpredict or overpredict the actual observation, quantile regression can estimate a range of possible turbidity values for a given value of streamflow. Regression relationships for various quantiles were applied to streamflows simulated by a watershed model to predict stream turbidity under: (i) the observed historical climate, and (ii) a future climate derived from 20 global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Future scenarios using quantile regression in combination with these GCMs and a stochastic weather generator indicated an increase in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological events that may generate high stream turbidity and cause potential water quality challenges to the water supply. The methods outlined in this study can be used for probabilistic estimation of stream turbidity for operational decisions and can be part of a vulnerability-based method to explore climate impacts on water resources.}, } @article {pmid30511643, year = {2018}, author = {Bjornsson, H}, title = {[Climate change and health].}, journal = {Laeknabladid}, volume = {104}, number = {12}, pages = {539}, doi = {10.17992/lbl.2018.12.205}, pmid = {30511643}, issn = {0023-7213}, } @article {pmid30511479, year = {2018}, author = {Arshad, S and Ahmad, M and Saboor, A and Ibrahim, FH and Mustafa, MRU and Zafar, M and Ashfaq, S}, title = {Role of trees in climate change and their authentication through scanning electron microscopy.}, journal = {Microscopy research and technique}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jemt.23106}, pmid = {30511479}, issn = {1097-0029}, abstract = {Climate change is the most realistic theory of this era. Sudden and drastic changes are happening on the earth and the survival of mankind is becoming questionable in the future. The plants play the key role in controlling the climate change. The study emphasizes on role of trees in the cop up or damaging the climate of this earth, whether they are medicinal trees or economically important trees. Due to the overgrazing and intense deforestation the climate is being affected hazardously. The global warming phenomenon is occurring due to the less availability of trees and more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In total 20 plants were collected from across the Pakistan on the basis of their abundance and their key roles. Out of which seeds of eight plants were scanned through scanning electron microscope for correct authentication and importance of these medicinally important trees in mitigating the climate change. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: The role of forest sector in the climate's change mitigation. Medicinally and economically important tree species across Pakistan. By using SEM, Ultra seed sculpturing features as an authentication tool. To formulate some policies to stop or control deforestation.}, } @article {pmid30509907, year = {2018}, author = {Olson, JR}, title = {Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1764}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0005}, pmid = {30509907}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Agricultural, industrial and urban development have all contributed to increased salinity in streams and rivers, but the likely effects of future development and climate change are unknown. I developed two empirical models to estimate how these combined effects might affect salinity by the end of this century (measured as electrical conductivity, EC). The first model predicts natural background from static (e.g. geology and soils) and dynamic (i.e. climate and vegetation) environmental factors and explained 78% of the variation in EC. I then compared the estimated background EC with current measurements at 2001 sites chosen probabilistically from all conterminous USA streams. EC was more than 50% greater at 34% of these sites. The second model predicts deviation of EC from background as a function of human land use and environmental factors and explained 60% of the variation in alteration from background. I then predicted the effects of climate and land use change on EC at the end of the century by replacing dynamic variables with published projections of future conditions based on the A2 emissions scenario. By the end of the century, the median EC is predicted to increase from 0.319 mS cm-1 to 0.524 mS cm-1 with over 50% of streams having greater than 50% increases in EC and 35% more than doubling their EC. Most of the change is related to increases in human land use, with climate change accounting for only 12% of the increase. In extreme cases, increased salinity may make water unsuitable for human use, but widespread moderate increases are likely a greater threat to stream ecosystems owing to the elimination of low EC habitats.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.}, } @article {pmid30509906, year = {2018}, author = {Le, TDH and Kattwinkel, M and Schützenmeister, K and Olson, JR and Hawkins, CP and Schäfer, RB}, title = {Predicting current and future background ion concentrations in German surface water under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1764}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0004}, pmid = {30509906}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Salinization of surface waters is a global environmental issue that can pose a regional risk to freshwater organisms, potentially leading to high environmental and economic costs. Global environmental change including climate and land use change can increase the transport of ions into surface waters. We fit both multiple linear regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models on a large spatial dataset to predict Ca2+ (266 sites), Mg2+ (266 sites), and [Formula: see text] (357 sites) ion concentrations as well as electrical conductivity (EC-a proxy for total dissolved solids with 410 sites) in German running water bodies. Predictions in both types of models were driven by the major factors controlling salinity including geologic and soil properties, climate, vegetation and topography. The predictive power of the two types of models was very similar, with RF explaining 71-76% of the spatial variation in ion concentrations and LR explaining 70-75% of the variance. Mean squared errors for predictions were all smaller than 0.06. The factors most strongly associated with stream ion concentrations varied among models but rock chemistry and climate were the most dominant. The RF model was subsequently used to forecast the changes in EC that were likely to occur for the period of 2070 to 2100 in response to just climate change-i.e. no additional effects of other anthropogenic activities. The future forecasting shows approximately 10% and 15% increases in mean EC for representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.}, } @article {pmid30509664, year = {2018}, author = {Diele-Viegas, LM and Rocha, CFD}, title = {Unraveling the influences of climate change in Lepidosauria (Reptilia).}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {78}, number = {}, pages = {401-414}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2018.11.005}, pmid = {30509664}, issn = {0306-4565}, abstract = {In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans and many species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and interactions in response to these changes. Projections of future climate change are uncertain, but the Earth's warming is likely to exceed 4.8 °C by the end of 21th century. The vulnerability of a population, species, group or system due to climate change is a function of impact of the changes on the evaluated system (exposure and sensitivity) and adaptive capacity as a response to this impact, and the relationship between these elements will determine the degree of species vulnerability. Predicting the potential future risks to biodiversity caused by climate change has become an extremely active field of research, and several studies in the last two decades had focused on determining possible impacts of climate change on Lepidosaurians, at a global, regional and local level. Here we conducted a systematic review of published studies in order to seek to what extent the accumulated knowledge currently allow us to identify potential trends or patterns regarding climate change effects on lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians and tuatara. We conducted a literature search among online literature databases/catalogues and recorded 255 studies addressing the influence of climate change on a total of 1918 species among 49 Lepidosaurian's families. The first study addressing this subject is dated 1999. Most of the studies focused on species distribution, followed by thermal biology, reproductive biology, behavior and genetics. We concluded that an integrative approach including most of these characteristics and also bioclimatic and environmental variables, may lead to consistent and truly effective strategies for species conservation, aiming to buffer the climate change effects on this group of reptiles.}, } @article {pmid30498774, year = {2018}, author = {Dahlke, FT and Butzin, M and Nahrgang, J and Puvanendran, V and Mortensen, A and Pörtner, HO and Storch, D}, title = {Northern cod species face spawning habitat losses if global warming exceeds 1.5°C.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {eaas8821}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aas8821}, pmid = {30498774}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Rapid climate change in the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic poses a threat to some of the world's largest fish populations. Impacts of warming and acidification may become accessible through mechanism-based risk assessments and projections of future habitat suitability. We show that ocean acidification causes a narrowing of embryonic thermal ranges, which identifies the suitability of spawning habitats as a critical life-history bottleneck for two abundant cod species. Embryonic tolerance ranges linked to climate simulations reveal that ever-increasing CO2 emissions [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5] will deteriorate suitability of present spawning habitat for both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) by 2100. Moderate warming (RCP4.5) may avert dangerous climate impacts on Atlantic cod but still leaves few spawning areas for the more vulnerable Polar cod, which also loses the benefits of an ice-covered ocean. Emissions following RCP2.6, however, support largely unchanged habitat suitability for both species, suggesting that risks are minimized if warming is held "below 2°C, if not 1.5°C," as pledged by the Paris Agreement.}, } @article {pmid30498339, year = {2018}, author = {Hoffmann, C and Hanisch, M and Heinsohn, JB and Dostal, V and Jehn, M and Liebers, U and Pankow, W and Donaldson, GC and Witt, C}, title = {Increased vulnerability of COPD patient groups to urban climate in view of global warming.}, journal = {International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {3493-3501}, doi = {10.2147/COPD.S174148}, pmid = {30498339}, issn = {1178-2005}, abstract = {Purpose: Patients with COPD show an increase in acute exacerbations (AECOPD) during the cold season as well as during heat waves in the summer months. Due to global climate changes, extreme weather conditions are likely to occur more frequently in the future. The goal of this study was to identify patient groups most at risk of exacerbations during the four seasons of the year and to determine at which temperature threshold the daily hospital admissions due to AECOPD increase during the summer.

Patients and methods: We analyzed retrospective demographic and medical data of 990 patients, who were hospitalized for AECOPD in Berlin, Germany. The cases were grouped into the following cohorts: "spring" (admission between March and May), "summer" (June - August), "autumn" (September - November), and "winter" (December - February). AECOPD hospital admissions from 2006 and 2010 were grouped into a "hot summer" cohort and cases from 2011 and 2012 into a "cold summer" data-set. Climate data were obtained from the German Meteorological Office.

Results: Patients hospitalized for a COPD exacerbation during winter were significantly older than summertime patients (P=0.040) and also thinner than patients exacerbating in spring (P=0.042). COPD exacerbations during hot summer periods happened more often to patients with a history of myocardial infarction (P=0.014) or active smokers (P=0.011). An AECOPD during colder summers occurred in patients with a higher Charlson index, who suffered in increased numbers from peripheral vascular diseases (P=0.016) or tumors (P=0.004). Summertime hospital admissions increased above a daily minimum temperature of 18.3°C (P=0.006).

Conclusion: The identification of COPD patient groups most at risk for climate related exacerbations enables climate-adapted prevention through patient guidance and treatment. In view of global climate changes, discovering vulnerabilities and implementing adaptive measures will be of growing importance.}, } @article {pmid30497656, year = {2018}, author = {Arabena, K and Armstrong, F and Berry, H and Brooks, P and Capon, T and Crabb, B and Demaio, A and Doherty, P and Lewin, S and Lo, S and Lopez, A and McMichael, C and McPake, B and Moodie, R and Nolan, T and Ruff, T and Sainsbury, P and Selvey, L and Shearman, D and Stanley, F and Talley, NJ and Watts, N}, title = {Australian health professionals' statement on climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10160}, pages = {2169-2170}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32610-2}, pmid = {30497656}, issn = {1474-547X}, } @article {pmid30496047, year = {2018}, author = {Figueres, C and Landrigan, PJ and Fuller, R}, title = {Tackling air pollution, climate change, and NCDs: time to pull together.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10157}, pages = {1502-1503}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32740-5}, pmid = {30496047}, issn = {1474-547X}, } @article {pmid30487170, year = {2018}, author = {Wise, J}, title = {Climate change is outpacing response, warn experts.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k5018}, pmid = {30487170}, issn = {1756-1833}, } @article {pmid30486282, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, L and Liao, W and Liu, C and Zhang, N and Zhong, S and Huang, C}, title = {Associations between Knowledge of the Causes and Perceived Impacts of Climate Change: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Medical, Public Health and Nursing Students in Universities in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15122650}, pmid = {30486282}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {A2016245//Medical Science and Technology Foundation of Guangdong Province/ ; 2018YFA0606204//National Key R&D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to measure the knowledge and perceptions of medical, public health, and nursing students about climate change and its impacts, and to identify associations between the knowledge and perceptions. Data were from a nationwide cross-sectional survey of 1387 students sampled in five different regional universities in China (April⁻May 2017). The knowledge and perceptions of the participants were collected by self-administered questionnaires. We found that most respondents believed that climate change is generally "bad" (83%) and bad for human health (88%), while 67% believed that climate change is controllable. The vast majority of respondents acknowledged illness conditions resulting from poor air quality (95%), heat stress (93%), and extreme weather events (91%) as potential impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, only 39% recognized malnutrition as a consequence of food deprivation resulting from climate change. Around 58% of respondents could correctly identify the causes of climate change. The knowledge of the causes of climate change was not associated with the ability to recognize the health consequences of climate change. However, the knowledge of causes of climate change was a significant predictor of increased awareness of the negative impacts of climate change between the medical and nursing students, although this was not the case among their public health counterparts. Poor knowledge about the causes of climate change is evident among students in China. They are able to recognize the direct links between weather events and health, but less likely to understand the consequences involving complicated pathways. Research and training into the underlying mechanisms of health impacts of climate change needs to be strengthened.}, } @article {pmid30486244, year = {2018}, author = {Rakotoarison, N and Raholijao, N and Razafindramavo, LM and Rakotomavo, ZAPH and Rakotoarisoa, A and Guillemot, JS and Randriamialisoa, ZJ and Mafilaza, V and Ramiandrisoa, VAMP and Rajaonarivony, R and Andrianjafinirina, S and Tata, V and Vololoniaina, MC and Rakotomanana, F and Raminosoa, VM}, title = {Assessment of Risk, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change by the Health Sector in Madagascar.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15122643}, pmid = {30486244}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Madagascar is cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, with significant impacts to the health of its population. In this study, the vulnerability of Madagascar's health sector to climate change was assessed and appropriate adaptation measures were identified. In order to assess climate risks, vulnerability and identify adaptation options, the Madagascar Ministry of Public Health as well as the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service worked in close collaboration with a team of local experts to conduct a literature review, field surveys, and analyses of current and future climate and health trends. Four climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern are described in the study: acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhea, malnutrition, and malaria. Baseline conditions of these four diseases from 2000 to 2014 show acute respiratory infections and diarrheal diseases are increasing in incidence; while incidence of malnutrition and malaria decreased over this period. To assess future impacts in Madagascar, this baseline information was used with climate projections for the two scenarios-RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-for the periods 2016⁻2035, 2036⁻2070 and 2071⁻2100. Future climate conditions are shown to exacerbate and increase the incidence of all four climate sensitive diseases. Further analysis of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the climate hazards suggests that the health sector in four regions of Madagascar is particularly vulnerable. The study recommends adaptation measures to improve the monitoring and early warning systems for climate sensitive diseases, as well as to reduce population vulnerability.}, } @article {pmid30484936, year = {2018}, author = {Cohen, JM and Civitello, DJ and Venesky, MD and McMahon, TA and Rohr, JR}, title = {An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14489}, pmid = {30484936}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {R01GM109499//National Institutes of Health/ ; R01TW010286-01//National Institutes of Health/ ; EF-1241889//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host-parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool- and warm-adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.}, } @article {pmid30483276, year = {2018}, author = {Henn, JJ and Buzzard, V and Enquist, BJ and Halbritter, AH and Klanderud, K and Maitner, BS and Michaletz, ST and Pötsch, C and Seltzer, L and Telford, RJ and Yang, Y and Zhang, L and Vandvik, V}, title = {Intraspecific Trait Variation and Phenotypic Plasticity Mediate Alpine Plant Species Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1548}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01548}, pmid = {30483276}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In a rapidly changing climate, alpine plants may persist by adapting to new conditions. However, the rate at which the climate is changing might exceed the rate of adaptation through evolutionary processes in long-lived plants. Persistence may depend on phenotypic plasticity in morphology and physiology. Here we investigated patterns of leaf trait variation including leaf area, leaf thickness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nutrients (C, N, P) and isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) across an elevation gradient on Gongga Mountain, Sichuan Province, China. We quantified inter- and intra-specific trait variation and the plasticity in leaf traits of selected species to experimental warming and cooling by using a reciprocal transplantation approach. We found substantial phenotypic plasticity in most functional traits where δ15N, leaf area, and leaf P showed greatest plasticity. These traits did not correspond with traits with the largest amount of intraspecific variation. Plasticity in leaf functional traits tended to enable plant populations to shift their trait values toward the mean values of a transplanted plants' destination community, but only if that population started with very different trait values. These results suggest that leaf trait plasticity is an important mechanism for enabling plants to persist within communities and to better tolerate changing environmental conditions under climate change.}, } @article {pmid30481434, year = {2017}, author = {Johnson, SR}, title = {'Climate change is the greatest public health threat we have'.}, journal = {Modern healthcare}, volume = {47}, number = {16}, pages = {32-33}, pmid = {30481434}, issn = {0160-7480}, abstract = {The Obama administration's public health efforts focused on acknowledging that social factors such as poverty and food insecurity affect the health outcomes of communities. The election of Donald Trump worries public health experts such as Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, who sat down with Modern Healthcare reporter Steven Ross Johnson to discuss what's next for public health under a Trump administration and where he sees opportunities for collaboration in a potential post-ACA world. The following is an edited transcript.}, } @article {pmid30477122, year = {2018}, author = {Berry, P and Enright, PM and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Villalobos Prats, E and Campbell-Lendrum, D}, title = {Assessing Health Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of International Progress.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15122626}, pmid = {30477122}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing risks to human health and to the health systems that seek to protect the safety and well-being of populations. Health authorities require information about current associations between health outcomes and weather or climate, vulnerable populations, projections of future risks and adaptation opportunities in order to reduce exposures, empower individuals to take needed protective actions and build climate-resilient health systems. An increasing number of health authorities from local to national levels seek this information by conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments. While assessments can provide valuable information to plan for climate change impacts, the results of many studies are not helping to build the global evidence-base of knowledge in this area. They are also often not integrated into adaptation decision making, sometimes because the health sector is not involved in climate change policy making processes at the national level. Significant barriers related to data accessibility, a limited number of climate and health models, uncertainty in climate projections, and a lack of funding and expertise, particularly in developing countries, challenge health authority efforts to conduct rigorous assessments and apply the findings. This paper examines the evolution of climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments, including guidance developed for such projects, the number of assessments that have been conducted globally and implementation of the findings to support health adaptation action. Greater capacity building that facilitates assessments from local to national scales will support collaborative efforts to protect health from current climate hazards and future climate change. Health sector officials will benefit from additional resources and partnership opportunities to ensure that evidence about climate change impacts on health is effectively translated into needed actions to build health resilience.}, } @article {pmid30476829, year = {2018}, author = {Koutroulis, AG}, title = {Dryland changes under different levels of global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {482-511}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215}, pmid = {30476829}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drylands are vital ecosystems which cover almost 47% of the Earth's surface, hosting 39% of the global population. Dryland areas are highly sensitive to climatic changes and substantial impacts are foreseen under a warming climate. Many studies have examined the evolution of drylands in the future highlighting the need for improved capability of climate models to simulate aridity. The present study takes advantage of new higher resolution climate projections by the HadGEM3A Atmosphere Global Climate Model using prescribed time varying SSTs and sea ice, provided by a range of CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5. The aim of the higher resolution models is to examine the benefit of the improved representation of atmospheric processes in the dryland research and to see where these results lie in the range of results from previous studies using the original CMIP5 ensemble. The transient response of aridity from the recent past until the end of the 21st century was examined as well as the expansion of global drylands under specific levels of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C). Dryland changes were further assessed at the watershed level for a number of major global river basins to discuss implications on hydrological changes and land degradation. The areal coverage of drylands could increase by an additional 7% of the global land surface by 2100 under high end climate change. At a 4°C warmer world above pre-industrial, 11.2% of global land area is projected to shift towards drier types and 4.24% to wetter. At the same level of warming the number of humans projected to live in drylands varies between 3.3 and 5.2 billion, depending on the socioeconomic developments. By keeping global warming levels to 1.5°C, up to 1.9 billion people could avoid living in drylands compared to a 4°C warmer world of low environmental concern.}, } @article {pmid30473865, year = {2018}, author = {Dietl, GP and Nagel-Myers, J and Aronson, RB}, title = {Indirect effects of climate change altered the cannibalistic behaviour of shell-drilling gastropods in Antarctica during the Eocene.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {5}, number = {10}, pages = {181446}, doi = {10.1098/rsos.181446}, pmid = {30473865}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {The fossil record from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, provides a record of biotic response to the onset of global climatic cooling during the Eocene. Using drilling traces-small, round holes preserved on prey shells-we examined the effect of a cooling pulse 41 Ma on the cannibalistic behaviour of predatory naticid gastropods. We predicted that cannibalistic attacks would decline in response to the cooling climate, reflecting reduced activity levels, energy requirements and constraints on the chemically aided drilling process of the naticids. Surprisingly, however, cannibalism frequencies did not change. This counterintuitive result is best explained by a sharp reduction in durophagous (shell-crushing) predation in shallow-benthic communities in Antarctica that also occurred as the climate cooled. Reduced durophagous predation may have created a less-risky environment for foraging naticids, stimulating cannibalistic behaviour. The change in the top-down control exerted by shell-crushing predators on naticids may have counteracted the direct, negative effects of declining temperatures on the predatory performance of naticids. Our results suggest that the long-term consequences of climate change cannot be predicted solely from its direct effects on predation, because the temperature can have large indirect effects on consumer-resource interactions, especially where risk-effects dominate.}, } @article {pmid30473757, year = {2018}, author = {Terblanche-Greeff, AC and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Cultural beliefs of time orientation and social self-construal: Influences on climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {510}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.510}, pmid = {30473757}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest challenges humankind faces and adaptive behaviour is an imperative response to such change. Culture and the resulting worldview are determinants of behaviour and eminent cultural beliefs are that of time orientation (TO) and social self-construal (SSC). To date, no research focuses on these beliefs from an indigenous South African perspective or the manner in which it may subsequently affect a community's adaptation towards climate change. Q-methodology was used to study perspectives and beliefs in three peri-urban communities in South Africa and to investigate the interrelation between themes such as TO, SSC, climate change awareness and climate change causality. It became apparent that the communities are aware of climate change, yet little to no efforts are currently being made to adapt to climatic change. This absence of motivation to adapt may be attributed to limited risk perception and cultural beliefs of TO and SSC. This study aims to contribute to the understanding of cultural beliefs and its impact on climate change adaptation behaviour in the South African context. It is concluded that TO and SSC from an indigenous South African perspective influence community adaptation to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30473756, year = {2018}, author = {Schuman, S and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Religious beliefs and climate change adaptation: A study of three rural South African communities.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {509}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.509}, pmid = {30473756}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article argues that religious beliefs significantly influence a community's understanding and experience of climate change adaptation, indicating the need for an inclusion of such information in climate change adaptation education. Data were collected using the Q-method, whereby recurring statements were identified from semi-structured interviews with participants from three rural communities in the North-West province of South Africa: Ikageng, Ventersdorp and Jouberton. The research found that community members who regard themselves as religious (overall of the Christian faith) fall under two groups: the religious determinists or fatalists, who see climate as a natural process that is governed by God, and religious participants who deny this 'naturalness' and acknowledge humans' impact on the climate.}, } @article {pmid30473737, year = {2018}, author = {Dumic, I and Severnini, E}, title = {"Ticking Bomb": The Impact of Climate Change on the Incidence of Lyme Disease.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale}, volume = {2018}, number = {}, pages = {5719081}, doi = {10.1155/2018/5719081}, pmid = {30473737}, issn = {1712-9532}, abstract = {Lyme disease (LD) is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. It is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi and transmitted to humans by blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis. The life cycle of the LD vector, I. scapularis, usually takes two to three years to complete and goes through three stages, all of which are dependent on environmental factors. Increases in daily average temperatures, a manifestation of climate change, might have contributed to an increase in tick abundance via higher rates of tick survival. Additionally, these environmental changes might have contributed to better host availability, which is necessary for tick feeding and life cycle completion. In fact, it has been shown that both tick activity and survival depend on temperature and humidity. In this study, we have examined the relationship between those climatic variables and the reported incidence of LD in 15 states that contribute to more than 95% of reported cases within the Unites States. Using fixed effects analysis for a panel of 468 U.S. counties from those high-incidence states with annual data available for the period 2000-2016, we have found sizable impacts of temperature on the incidence of LD. Those impacts can be described approximately by an inverted U-shaped relationship, consistent with patterns of tick survival and host-seeking behavior. Assuming a 2°C increase in annual average temperature-in line with mid-century (2036-2065) projections from the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA4)-we have predicted that the number of LD cases in the United States will increase by over 20 percent in the coming decades. These findings may help improving preparedness and response by clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers, as well as raising public awareness of the importance of being cautious when engaging in outdoor activities.}, } @article {pmid30473301, year = {2019}, author = {Lu, X and Lu, Y and Chen, D and Su, C and Song, S and Wang, T and Tian, H and Liang, R and Zhang, M and Khan, K}, title = {Climate change induced eutrophication of cold-water lake in an ecologically fragile nature reserve.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {75}, number = {}, pages = {359-369}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2018.05.018}, pmid = {30473301}, issn = {1001-0742}, abstract = {Aquatic ecosystem sustainability around the globe is facing crucial challenges because of increasing anthropogenic and natural disturbances. In this study, the Tianchi Lake, a typical cold-water lake and a UNESCO/MAB (Man and Biosphere) nature reserve located in high latitude and elevation with the relatively low intensity of human activity was chosen as a system to examine the linkages between climate change and eutrophication. As a part of the UNESCO Bogda Man and Biosphere Reserve, Tianchi Lake has been well preserved for prevention from human intervention, but why has it been infected with eutrophication recent years? Our results show that climate change played a significant role in the eutrophication in the Tianchi Lake. Increased temperature, changed precipitation pattern and wind-induced hydrodynamic fluctuations in the summer season were suggested to make a major contribution to the accelerated eutrophication. The results also showed that the local temperature and precipitation changes were closely linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which opens the door for the method to be applied in other regions without local climatic information. This study suggests that there is an urgent need to take into consideration of climate change adaptation into the conservation and management of cold-water lakes globally.}, } @article {pmid30472516, year = {2018}, author = {Austin, SE and Ford, JD and Berrang-Ford, L and Biesbroek, R and Ross, NA}, title = {Enabling local public health adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Social science & medicine (1982)}, volume = {220}, number = {}, pages = {236-244}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.11.002}, pmid = {30472516}, issn = {1873-5347}, abstract = {Local public health authorities often lack the capacity to adapt to climate change, despite being on the 'front lines' of climate impacts. Upper-level governments are well positioned to create an enabling environment for adaptation and build local public health authorities' capacity, yet adaptation literature has not specified how upper-level governments can build local-level adaptive capacity. In this paper we examine how federal and regional governments can contribute to enabling and supporting public health adaptation to climate change at the local level in federal systems. We outline the local level's self-assessed adaptive capacity for public health adaptation in Canadian and German comparative case studies, in terms of funding, knowledge and skills, organizations, and prioritization, drawing upon 30 semi-structured interviews. Based on interviewees' recommendations and complemented by scientific literature, we develop a set of practical measures that could enable or support local-level public health adaptation. We find that adaptive capacity varies widely between local public health authorities, but most report having insufficient funding and staff for adaptation activities. We propose 10 specific measures upper-level governments can take to build local public health authorities' capacity for adaptation, under the interrelated target areas of: building financial capital; developing and disseminating usable knowledge; collaborating and coordinating for shared knowledge; and claiming leadership. Federal and regional governments have an important role to play in enabling local-level public health adaptation, and have many instruments available to them to fulfill that role. Selecting and implementing measures to enable local public health authorities' adaptive capacity will require tailoring to, and consideration, of the local context and needs.}, } @article {pmid30469066, year = {2018}, author = {Thomas, P and Büntgen, U}, title = {A risk assessment of Europe's black truffle sector under predicted climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {27-34}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.252}, pmid = {30469066}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The black truffle (Tuber melanosporum) is a highly revered culinary icon species that grows symbiotically with its host trees across several parts of southern Europe. Where harvested under natural or cultivated conditions, truffles can have a significant socioeconomic impact and may even form a key component of cultural identity. Although some aspects of truffle biology and ecology have been elucidated recently, the role of abiotic, environmental and climatic factors in the production and maturation of their fruitbodies is still largely unknown. Based on 36-year-long, continuous records of Mediterranean truffle yield, we demonstrate that decreased summer precipitation together with increased summer temperatures significantly reduce the fungus' subsequent winter harvest. Using state-of-the-art climate model projections, we predict that a significant decline of 78-100% in southern European truffle production is likely to occur between 2071 and 2100. The additional threats of forecasted heatwaves, forest fires, pest and disease outbreaks are discussed along with socioeconomic and ecological consequences of a warmer and dryer future climate. Our results emphasize the need for unravelling the direct and indirect effects of climate change on Europe's truffle sector and underline the importance of conservation initiatives at local to international scales.}, } @article {pmid30466147, year = {2018}, author = {Zhou, G and Luo, Q and Chen, Y and He, M and Zhou, L and Frank, D and He, Y and Fu, Y and Zhang, B and Zhou, X}, title = {Effects of livestock grazing on grassland carbon storage and release override impacts associated with global climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14533}, pmid = {30466147}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Predicting future carbon (C) dynamics in grassland ecosystems requires knowledge of how grazing and global climate change (e.g., warming, elevated CO2 , increased precipitation, drought and N fertilization) interact to influence C storage and release. Here, we synthesized data from 223 grassland studies to quantify the individual and interactive effects of herbivores and climate change on ecosystem C pools and soil respiration (Rs). Our results showed that grazing overrode global climate change factors in regulating grassland C storage and release (i.e., Rs). Specifically, grazing significantly decreased aboveground plant C pool (APCP), belowground plant C pool (BPCP), soil C pool (SCP), and Rs by 19.1%, 6.4%, 3.1%, and 4.6%, respectively, while overall effects of all global climate change factors increased APCP, BPCP and Rs by 6.5%, 15.3%, and 3.4% but had no significant effect on SCP. However, the combined effects of grazing with global climate change factors also significantly decreased APCP, SCP and Rs by 4.0%, 4.7% and 2.7%, respectively, but had no effect on BPCP. Most of the interactions between grazing and global climate change factors on APCP, BPCP, SCP and Rs were additive instead of synergistic or antagonistic. Our findings highlight the dominant effects of grazing on C storage and Rs when compared with the suite of global climate change factors. Therefore, incorporating the dominant effect of herbivore grazing into Earth System Models is necessary to accurately predict climate-grassland feedbacks in the Anthropocene. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30464832, year = {2018}, author = {Elayadeth-Meethal, M and Thazhathu Veettil, A and Maloney, SK and Hawkins, N and Misselbrook, TH and Sejian, V and Rivero, MJ and Lee, MRF}, title = {Size does matter: Parallel evolution of adaptive thermal tolerance and body size facilitates adaptation to climate change in domestic cattle.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {21}, pages = {10608-10620}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4550}, pmid = {30464832}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The adaptive potential of livestock under a warming climate is increasingly relevant in relation to the growing pressure of global food security. Studies on heat tolerance demonstrate the interplay of adaptation and acclimatization in functional traits, for example, a reduction in body size and enhanced tolerance in response to a warming climate. However, current lack of understanding of functional traits and phylogenetic history among phenotypically distinct populations constrains predictions of climate change impact. Here, we demonstrate evidence of parallel evolution in adaptive tolerance to heat stress in dwarf cattle breeds (DCB, Bos taurus indicus) and compare their thermoregulatory responses with those in standard size cattle breeds (SCB, crossbred, Bos taurus indicus × Bos taurus taurus). We measured vital physiological, hematological, biochemical, and gene expression changes in DCB and SCB and compared the molecular phylogeny using mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) analysis. Our results show that SCB can acclimatize in the short term to higher temperatures but reach their tolerance limit under prevailing tropical conditions, while DCB is adapted to the warmer climate. Increased hemoglobin concentration, reduced cellular size, and smaller body size enhance thermal tolerance. Mitogenome analysis revealed that different lineages of DCB have evolved reduced size independently, as a parallel adaptation to heat stress. The results illustrate mechanistic ways of dwarfing, body size-dependent tolerance, and differential fitness in a large mammal species under harsh field conditions, providing a background for comparing similar populations during global climate change. These demonstrate the value of studies combining functional, physiological, and evolutionary approaches to delineate adaptive potential and plasticity in domestic species. We thus highlight the value of locally adapted breeds as a reservoir of genetic variation contributing to the global domestic genetic resource pool that will become increasingly important for livestock production systems under a warming climate.}, } @article {pmid30464240, year = {2018}, author = {Wood, JR and Díaz, FP and Latorre, C and Wilmshurst, JM and Burge, OR and Gutiérrez, RA}, title = {Plant pathogen responses to Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate change in the central Atacama Desert, Chile.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17208}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-35299-2}, pmid = {30464240}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Core funding for Crown Research Institutes//Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)/ ; Core funding to Crown Research Institutes//Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE)/ ; }, abstract = {Future climate change has the potential to alter the distribution and prevalence of plant pathogens, which may have significant implications for both agricultural crops and natural plant communities. However, there are few long-term datasets against which modelled predictions of pathogen responses to climate change can be tested. Here, we use 18S metabarcoding of 28 rodent middens (solidified deposits of rodent coprolites and nesting material) from the Central Atacama, spanning the last ca. 49 ka, to provide the first long-term late Quaternary record of change in plant pathogen communities in response to changing climate. Plant pathogen richness was significantly greater in middens deposited during the Central Andean Pluvial Event (CAPE); a period of increased precipitation between 17.5-8.5 ka. Moreover, the occurrence frequency of Pucciniaceae (rust fungi) was significantly greater during the CAPE, and the highest relative abundances for five additional potentially pathogenic taxa also occurred during this period. The results demonstrate the promising potential for ancient DNA analysis of late Quaternary samples to reveal insights into how plant pathogens responded to past climatic and environmental change, which could help predict how pathogens may responded to future change.}, } @article {pmid30463471, year = {2018}, author = {Symonds, ME and Farhat, G and Aldiss, P and Pope, M and Budge, H}, title = {Brown adipose tissue and glucose homeostasis - the link between climate change and the global rise in obesity and diabetes.}, journal = {Adipocyte}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1080/21623945.2018.1551689}, pmid = {30463471}, issn = {2162-397X}, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that the global rise in temperature is contributing to the onset of diabetes, which could be mediated by a concomitant reduction in brown fat activity. Brown (and beige) fat are characterised as possessing a unique mitochondrial protein uncoupling protein (UCP)1 that when activated can rapidly generate large amounts of heat. Primary environmental stimuli of UCP1 include cold-exposure and diet, leading to increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system and large amounts of lipid and glucose being oxidised by brown fat. The exact contribution remains controversial, although recent studies indicate that the amount of brown and beige fat in adult humans has been greatly underestimated. We therefore review the potential mechanisms by which glucose could be utilised within brown and beige fat in adult humans and the extent to which these are sensitive to temperature and diet. This includes the potential contribution from the peridroplet and cytoplasmic mitochondrial sub-fractions recently identified in brown fat, and whether a proportion of glucose oxidation could be UCP1-independent. It is thus predicted that as new methods are developed to assess glucose metabolism by brown fat, a more accurate determination of the thermogenic and non-thermogenic functions could be feasible in humans.}, } @article {pmid30463139, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Tao, H and Su, B and Kundzewicz, ZW and Jiang, T}, title = {Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on winter snow depth in Central Asia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2866-2873}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.126}, pmid = {30463139}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Snow depth plays an essential role in the water and energy balance of the land surface. It is of special importance in arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. Owing to the limited availability of field observations, the spatial and temporal variations of snow depth are still poorly known. Using the Japanese 55-year (JRA-55) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis snow depth products, we considered four global climate models (GCMs) applied in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), examining how they represent snow depth in Central Asia during the period 1986-2005 in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. We also investigated changes of winter (January-March) snow depth in Central Asia, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Finally, the joint probabilistic behavior of winter temperature and precipitation at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming are investigated using the kernel density estimator (KDE). The result shows that the snow depth climatology of Central Asia is generally well simulated in both spatial pattern and temporal (inter-annual and inter-seasonal) pattern. All models approximately simulate the winter maximum and the summer minimum values of snow depth but tend to overestimate the amplitude during October-December. Only the trend in HadGEM2-ES matches fairly well to the JRA-55 reanalysis snow depth. When comparing the projections of spatial distribution of winter snow depth, distinctive spatial pattern is noted at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, when the snow depth is shown to increase in northeastern and to decrease in midwestern regions of Central Asia. According to the joint probability distributions of precipitation and temperature, Central Asia will tend to experience a warmer and wetter winter at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, which can be associated with an increase in snow depth in the northeastern regions.}, } @article {pmid30463131, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, Z and Yang, Y and He, C and Tu, M}, title = {Climate change will constrain the rapid urban expansion in drylands: A scenario analysis with the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2772-2786}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.177}, pmid = {30463131}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Evaluation of climate change impacts (CCIs) on urban expansion is important to improving the urban sustainability in drylands. Taking the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) as an example, this study evaluates potential CCIs on urban expansion in 2015-2050. First, we set up six climate change scenarios (CCSs) based on the simulated results of global climate model and regional climate model under different representative concentration pathways. Then, we simulate regional urban expansion under the different CCSs using the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We find that climate change will be a key factor that affects urban expansion in this region. The urban land affected by climate change in the entire region will increase from 20.24-26.48 km2 (2020) to 119.71-339.26 km2 (2050), an increase of 4.91-11.81 times. The CCIs on urban expansion will be the most significant in the mid-western region. In 2050, the urban land potentially affected by climate change will be 98.70-213.88 km2, which is 42.26%-134.12% of the urban land in the entire region. To improve urban sustainability in the APTZNC, effective measures must be adopted to mitigate and adapt to CCIs on urban expansion.}, } @article {pmid30461534, year = {2018}, author = {Reid, CE and Maestas, MM}, title = {Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change: impact on respiratory health of affected communities.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000000552}, pmid = {30461534}, issn = {1531-6971}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we describe the current status of the literature regarding respiratory health related to wildfire smoke exposure, anticipated future impacts under a changing climate, and strategies to reduce respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke.

RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings confirm associations between wildfire smoke exposure and respiratory health outcomes, with the clearest evidence for exacerbations of asthma. Although previous evidence showed a clear association between wildfire smoke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, findings from recent studies are more mixed. Current evidence in support of an association between respiratory infections and wildfire smoke exposure is also mixed. Only one study has investigated long-term respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke, and few studies have estimated future health impacts of wildfires under likely climate change scenarios.

SUMMARY: Wildfire activity has been increasing over the past several decades and is likely to continue to do so as climate change progresses, which, combined with a growing population, means that population exposure to and respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke is likely to grow in the future. More research is needed to understand which population subgroups are most vulnerable to wildfire smoke exposure and the long-term respiratory health impacts of these high pollution events.}, } @article {pmid30460966, year = {2018}, author = {Dennis, S and Fisher, D}, title = {Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: The Next 50 Years.}, journal = {Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore}, volume = {47}, number = {10}, pages = {401-404}, pmid = {30460966}, issn = {0304-4602}, } @article {pmid30460817, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, C and Huo, HL and Tian, LM and Dong, XG and Qi, D and Zhang, Y and Xu, JY and Cao, YF}, title = {[Potential geographical distribution of Pyrus calleryana under different climate change scena-rios based on the MaxEnt model].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3696-3704}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201811.016}, pmid = {30460817}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {To resovle the problems of in-situ conservation and resource utilization of Pyrus caller-yana, maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographic information system (GIS) were used to predict the global ecological suitable region of P. calleryana in different climate scenarios based on 236 distribution data and 19 ecological factors. The results showed that the ecological suitable regions of P. calleryana were mainly concentrated in North America, Asia and other regions, with a total area of 1.6×107 km2. In China, the regions with high ecological suitability were Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. The main factors affecting the geographical distribution of P. calleryana were mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, followed by the seasonality of temperature. The model simulations indicated that P. calleryana would have different suitable habitat areas and marginally suitable habitat areas in different climate scenarios. In terms of the spatial distribution of the potential habitat area, both the distributional range and the center of distribution of suitable and marginally suitable habitat area would shift from east to west. The suitable habitat area in North America and marginally suitable habitat areas in Europe would increase rapidly.}, } @article {pmid30460799, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, M and Mao, ZJ and Li, Y and Xia, ZY}, title = {[Response of radial growth to climate change in Pinus koraiensis with different diameter classes].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3530-3540}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201811.010}, pmid = {30460799}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {Dendrochronological techniques were used to study the response of radial growth of Pinus koraiensis with different diameter classes to climate change throughout the natural range of broad-leaved Korean pine forests, including Baishilazi Nature Reserve (40.9° N), Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve (42.4° N), Liangshui Nature Reserve (47.2° N), and Shengshan Nature Reserve (49.4° N). We investigated the similarities and differences of growth responses of different diameter classes to climate factors and clarified the key climate factors affecting the growth of P. koraiensis at different latitude sites. We explored the dynamic changes of the radial growth of P. koraiensis from the latitudinal gradient over the past 40 years. The results showed many similarities in the response of two diameter classes to local climate factors. Small diameter (diameter at breast height of 10-20 cm) trees were more sensitive to the changes of average minimum temperature of the current growing season and the meteorological factors of the previous year, whereas large diameter (diameter at breast height >40 cm) trees were more sensitive to the changes of average maximum temperature and average relative humidity of the current growing season. The key meteorological factors that affecting radial growth of P. koraiensis differed along the latitude gradient. In Baishilazi Nature Reserve, the southernmost plot, the key climate factors were the average maximum temperature and the average maximum temperature in the current growing season. In Shengshan Nature Reserve, the northernmost sample plot, the key climate factors were low temperature factors, such as the minimum temperature in all seasons, the average maximum temperature in winter, the average temperature of all seasons except for the end of previous growing season and the current growing season. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in the current growth season and the end of the current growth season and the precipitation in the current growth season were the key climate factors in Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve. The average temperature of the current growing season was the key climate factor of Liangshui Nature Reserve. In recent four decades, with the rising of temperature, the radial growth of P. koraiensis of two diameter classes significantly decreased in the southernmost point, significantly increased in the northernmost point, and had no significant variation in middle latitudes.}, } @article {pmid30460481, year = {2018}, author = {Ahmed, N and Thompson, S and Glaser, M}, title = {Global Aquaculture Productivity, Environmental Sustainability, and Climate Change Adaptability.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1117-3}, pmid = {30460481}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {To meet the demand for food from a growing global population, aquaculture production is under great pressure to increase as capture fisheries have stagnated. However, aquaculture has raised a range of environmental concerns, and further increases in aquaculture production will face widespread environmental challenges. The effects of climate change will pose a further threat to global aquaculture production. Aquaculture is often at risk from a combination of climatic variables, including cyclone, drought, flood, global warming, ocean acidification, rainfall variation, salinity, and sea level rise. For aquaculture growth to be sustainable its environmental impacts must reduce significantly. Adaptation to climate change is also needed to produce more fish without environmental impacts. Some adaptation strategies including integrated aquaculture, recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS), and the expansion of seafood farming could increase aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and climate change adaptability.}, } @article {pmid30460433, year = {2018}, author = {Campoy, JA and Darbyshire, R and Dirlewanger, E and Quero-García, J and Wenden, B}, title = {Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1649-5}, pmid = {30460433}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2014-1R201022971//Conseil Régional Aquitaine/ ; }, abstract = {Evaluation of chilling requirements of cultivars of temperate fruit trees provides key information to assess regional suitability, according to winter chill, for both industry expansion and ongoing profitability as climate change progresses. Traditional methods for calculating chilling requirements use climate-controlled chambers and define chilling requirements (CR) using a fixed bud burst percentage, usually close to 50% (CR-50%). However, this CR-50% definition may estimate chilling requirements that lead to flowering percentages that are lower than required for orchards to be commercially viable. We used sweet cherry to analyse the traditional method for calculating chilling requirements (CR-50%) and compared the results with a more restrictive method, where the chilling requirement was defined by a 90% bud break level (CRm-90%). For sweet cherry, this higher requirement of flowering success (90% as opposed to 50%) better represents grower production needs as a greater number of flowers leads to greater potential yield. To investigate the future risk of insufficient chill based on alternate calculations of the chilling requirement, climate projections of winter chill suitability across Europe were calculated using CR-50% and CRm-90%. Regional suitability across the landscape was highly dependent on the method used to define chilling requirements, and differences were found for both cold and mild winter areas. Our results suggest that bud break percentage levels used in the assessment of chilling requirements for sweet cherry influence production risks of current and future production areas. The use of traditional methods to determine chilling requirements can result in an underestimation of productivity chilling requirements for tree crops like sweet cherry which rely on a high conversion of flowers to mature fruit to obtain profitable yields. This underestimation may have negative consequences for the fruit industry as climate change advances with climate risk underestimated.}, } @article {pmid30458350, year = {2018}, author = {Nunfam, VF and Van Etten, EJ and Oosthuizen, J and Adusei-Asante, K and Frimpong, K}, title = {Climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers: Perspectives of supervisors and other stakeholders in Ghana.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {147-155}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.11.004}, pmid = {30458350}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Increasing air temperatures as a result of climate change are worsening the impact of heat exposure on working populations, including mining workers, who are at risk of suffering heat-related illnesses, injury and death. However, inadequate awareness of climate change-related occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies have been shown to render occupational heat stress management ineffective. A concurrent mixed-methods approach was used to assess the perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers among supervisory personnel and other stakeholders in Ghana. Questionnaires and interviews were used to elicit data from 19 respondents. Data were processed and interpreted using descriptive statistics, chi-square and Fisher's exact tests, and thematic analysis. Supervisors' climate change risks perception was adequate, and their concern about workplace heat exposure risks was moderate. Mining workers' occupational heat stress risks experiences were linked to heat-related illness and minor injuries. Mining workers' adaptation strategies included water intake, use of cooling mechanisms, work-break practices, and clothing use. The related differences in job experience in the distribution of climate change risk perception and occupational heat stress risk experiences, and the difference in educational attainment in the distribution of adaptation strategies of occupational heat stress were significant (p < 0.05). Hence, an effective workplace heat management policy requires adequate understanding of occupational heat stress risks and adaptation policies and continued education and training for mining workers.}, } @article {pmid30456897, year = {2018}, author = {Cochand, F and Therrien, R and Lemieux, JM}, title = {Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Snow-Influenced Catchment.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gwat.12848}, pmid = {30456897}, issn = {1745-6584}, abstract = {The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been intensively studied for different regions and climates across the world. In regions where winter processes such as snowfall and melting play a significant role, anticipated changes in temperature might significantly affect hydrological systems. To address this impact, modifications have been made to the fully-integrated surface-subsurface flow model HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to allow the simulation of snow accumulation and melting. The modified HGS model was used to assess the potential impact of climate change on surface and subsurface flow in the Saint-Charles River catchment, Quebec (Canada) for the period 2070-2100. The model was first developed and calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow and hydraulic heads for current climate conditions. The calibrated model was then used with three different climate scenarios to simulate surface flow and groundwater dynamics of the 2070-2100 period. Winter stream discharges are predicted to increase by about 80%, 120%, and 150% for the three scenarios due to warmer winters, leading to more liquid precipitation and more snowmelt. Conversely, the summer stream discharges are predicted to fall by about 10%, 15%, and 20% due to an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the annual mean stream discharge should remain stable (+/- 0.1 m3 /s). The predicted increase in hydraulic heads in winter may reach 15 m, and the maximum decrease in summer may reach 3 m. Simulations show that winter processes play a key role in the seasonal modifications anticipated for surface and subsurface flow dynamics.}, } @article {pmid30455442, year = {2018}, author = {Doughty, CE and Santos-Andrade, PE and Shenkin, A and Goldsmith, GR and Bentley, LP and Blonder, B and Díaz, S and Salinas, N and Enquist, BJ and Martin, RE and Asner, GP and Malhi, Y}, title = {Tropical forest leaves may darken in response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology & evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0716-y}, pmid = {30455442}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {NE/J023418/1//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; }, abstract = {Tropical forest leaf albedo (reflectance) greatly impacts how much energy the planet absorbs; however; little is known about how it might be impacted by climate change. Here, we measure leaf traits and leaf albedo at ten 1-ha plots along a 3,200-m elevation gradient in Peru. Leaf mass per area (LMA) decreased with warmer temperatures along the elevation gradient; the distribution of LMA was positively skewed at all sites indicating a shift in LMA towards a warmer climate and future reduced tropical LMA. Reduced LMA was significantly (P < 0.0001) correlated with reduced leaf near-infrared (NIR) albedo; community-weighted mean NIR albedo significantly (P < 0.01) decreased as temperature increased. A potential future 2 °C increase in tropical temperatures could reduce lowland tropical leaf LMA by 6-7 g m-2 (5-6%) and reduce leaf NIR albedo by 0.0015-0.002 units. Reduced NIR albedo means that leaves are darker and absorb more of the Sun's energy. Climate simulations indicate this increased absorbed energy will warm tropical forests more at high CO2 conditions with proportionately more energy going towards heating and less towards evapotranspiration and cloud formation.}, } @article {pmid30455218, year = {2018}, author = {MacLean, HJ and Nielsen, ME and Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {Using museum specimens to track morphological shifts through climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1763}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0404}, pmid = {30455218}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Museum specimens offer a largely untapped resource for detecting morphological shifts in response to climate change. However, morphological shifts can be obscured by shifts in phenology or distribution or sampling biases. Additionally, interpreting phenotypic shifts requires distinguishing whether they result from plastic or genetic changes. Previous studies using collections have documented consistent historical size changes, but the limited studies of other morphological traits have often failed to support, or even test, hypotheses. We explore the potential of collections by investigating shifts in the functionally significant coloration of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, over the past 60 years within three North American geographical regions. We find declines in ventral wing melanism, which correspond to reduced absorption of solar radiation and thus reduced risk of overheating, in two regions. However, contrary to expected responses to climate warming, we find melanism increases in the most thoroughly sampled region. Relationships among temperature, phenology and morphology vary across years and complicate the distinction between plastic and genetic responses. Differences in these relationships may account for the differing morphological shifts among regions. Our findings highlight the promise of using museum specimens to test mechanistic hypotheses for shifts in functional traits, which is essential for deciphering interacting responses to climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.}, } @article {pmid30452890, year = {2018}, author = {Sergi, C and Serra, N and Colomba, C and Ayanlade, A and Carlo, PD}, title = {Tuberculosis Evolution and Climate Change: How much work is ahead?.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.11.016}, pmid = {30452890}, issn = {1873-6254}, } @article {pmid30452778, year = {2018}, author = {Shortridge, J and Camp, JS}, title = {Addressing Climate Change as an Emerging Risk to Infrastructure Systems.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13234}, pmid = {30452778}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {The consequences that climate change could have on infrastructure systems are potentially severe but highly uncertain. This should make risk analysis a natural framework for climate adaptation in infrastructure systems. However, many aspects of climate change, such as weak background knowledge and societal controversy, make it an emerging risk where traditional approaches for risk assessment and management cannot be confidently employed. A number of research developments aimed at addressing these issues have emerged in recent years, such as the development of probabilistic climate projections, climate services, and robust decision frameworks. However, additional research is needed to improve the suitability of these methods for infrastructure planning. In this perspective, we outline some of the challenges in addressing climate change risks to infrastructure and summarize new developments aimed at meeting these challenges. We end by highlighting needs for future research, many of which could be well-served by expertise within the risk analysis community.}, } @article {pmid30451349, year = {2018}, author = {Stinziano, JR and Bauerle, WL and Way, DA}, title = {Modelled net carbon gain responses to climate change in boreal trees: impacts of photosynthetic parameter selection and acclimation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14530}, pmid = {30451349}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Boreal forests are crucial in regulating global vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, but the impact of climate change on boreal tree carbon fluxes is still unclear. Given the sensitivity of global vegetation models to photosynthetic and respiration parameters, we determined how predictions of net carbon gain (C-gain) respond to variation in these parameters using a stand-level model (MAESTRA). We also modelled how thermal acclimation of photosynthetic and respiratory temperature sensitivity alters predicted net C-gain responses to climate change. We modelled net C-gain of seven common boreal tree species under eight climate scenarios across a latitudinal gradient to capture a range of seasonal temperature conditions. Physiological parameter values were taken from the literature together with different approaches for thermally acclimating photosynthesis and respiration. At high latitudes, net C-gain was stimulated up to 400% by elevated temperatures and CO2 in the autumn but suppressed at the lowest latitudes during mid-summer under climate scenarios that included warming. Modelled net C-gain was more sensitive to photosynthetic capacity parameters (Vcmax , Jmax , Arrhenius temperature response parameters, and the ratio of Jmax to Vcmax) than stomatal conductance or respiration parameters. The effect of photosynthetic thermal acclimation depended on the temperatures where it was applied: acclimation reduced net C-gain by 10-15% within the temperature range where the equations were derived but decreased net C-gain by 175% at temperatures outside this range. Thermal acclimation of respiration had small, but positive, impacts on net C-gain. We show that model simulations are highly sensitive to variation in photosynthetic parameters and highlight the need to better understand the mechanisms and drivers underlying this variability (e.g. whether variability is environmentally and/or biologically driven) for further model improvement. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30450107, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, Y and Halbritter, AH and Klanderud, K and Telford, RJ and Wang, G and Vandvik, V}, title = {Transplants, Open Top Chambers (OTCs) and Gradient Studies Ask Different Questions in Climate Change Effects Studies.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1574}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01574}, pmid = {30450107}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Long-term monitoring, space-for-time substitutions along gradients, and in situ temperature manipulations are common approaches to understand effects of climate change on alpine and arctic plant communities. Although general patterns emerge from studies using different approaches, there are also some inconsistencies. To provide better estimates of plant community responses to future warming across a range of environments, there have been repeated calls for integrating different approaches within single studies. Thus, to examine how different methods in climate change effect studies may ask different questions, we combined three climate warming approaches in a single study in the Hengduan Mountains of southwestern China. We monitored plant communities along an elevation gradient using the space-for-time approach, and conducted warming experiments using open top chambers (OTCs) and plant community transplantation toward warmer climates along the same gradient. Plant species richness and abundances were monitored over 5 years addressing two questions: (1) how do plant communities respond to the different climate warming approaches? (2) how can the combined approaches improve predictions of plant community responses to climate change? The general trend across all three approaches was decreased species richness with climate warming at low elevations. This suggests increased competition from immigrating lowland species, and/or from the species already growing inside the plots, as indicated by increased biomass, vegetation height or proportion of graminoids. At the coldest sites, species richness decreased in OTCs and along the gradient, but increased in the transplants, suggesting that plant communities in colder climates are more open to invasion from lowland species, with slow species loss. This was only detected in the transplants, showing that different approaches, may yield different results. Whereas OTCs may constrain immigration of new species, transplanted communities are rapidly exposed to new neighbors that can easily colonize the small plots. Thus, different approaches ask slightly different questions, in particular regarding indirect climate change effects, such as biotic interactions. To better understand both direct and indirect effects of climate change on plant communities, we need to combine approaches in future studies, and if novel interactions are of particular interest, transplants may be a better approach than OTCs.}, } @article {pmid30448995, year = {2018}, author = {van Kerkhoff, L and Munera, C and Dudley, N and Guevara, O and Wyborn, C and Figueroa, C and Dunlop, M and Hoyos, MA and Castiblanco, J and Becerra, L}, title = {Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-1121-0}, pmid = {30448995}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {P10002150//Luc Hoffmann Institute/ ; PO#2174//Luc Hoffmann Institute/ ; }, abstract = {Management of protected areas must adapt to climate impacts, and prepare for ongoing ecological transformation. Future-Proofing Conservation is a dialogue-based, multi-stakeholder learning process that supports conservation managers to consider the implications of climate change for governance and management. It takes participants through a series of conceptual transitions to identify new management options that are robust to a range of possible biophysical futures, and steps that they can take now to prepare for ecological transformation. We outline the Future-Proofing Conservation process, and demonstrate its application in a pilot programme in Colombia. This process can be applied and adapted to a wide range of climate adaptation contexts, to support practitioners in developing positive ways forward for management and decision-making. By acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values, and rethinking the rules that shape conservation governance, participants can identify new strategies towards "future-oriented conservation" over the long term.}, } @article {pmid30448655, year = {2018}, author = {Warnatzsch, EA and Reay, DS}, title = {Temperature and precipitation change in Malawi: Evaluation of CORDEX-Africa climate simulations for climate change impact assessments and adaptation planning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {378-392}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.098}, pmid = {30448655}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Malawi is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. The large uncertainty around future climate change in the region remains a barrier to adaptation planning. Despite this high potential vulnerability, relatively little research has gone into determining how well available models represent this country's climate. This work therefore evaluates the ability of existing General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to hindcast climatic variables in Malawi at a resolution appropriate for climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning. We focus on monthly precipitation rate, and mean, maximum and minimum surface air temperature. This assessment compares available observed datasets against the outputs of six ERA-interim driven RCMs and 21 GCM-driven RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, and the 11 GCMs which form their boundary conditions. It was found that the performance of the RCMs is highly influenced by their boundary conditions. None of the individual or ensemble RCMs or GCMs assessed in this paper correlate well with the observed datasets for any of the assessed climatic variables. While, they do simulate the trending change in temperature variables well, the simulated outputs for precipitation are highly divergent. Based on these findings we suggest that either the ensemble RCMs or ensemble GCMs would be suitable for understanding projected temperature trends, with the RCMs providing better spatial resolution. However, none of the assessed models provide certainty over future precipitation trends in Malawi. As such we suggest that impact assessments and adaptation plans in Malawi will need to be designed and tested against a range of future precipitation scenarios. To improve modelling for Malawi it is recommended that regional climate models be improved for higher spatial resolution and inclusion of the impacts from large water bodies, including Lake Malawi.}, } @article {pmid30447580, year = {2018}, author = {Hălbac-Cotoară-Zamfir, R and Keesstra, S and Kalantari, Z}, title = {The impact of political, socio-economic and cultural factors on implementing environment friendly techniques for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation in Romania.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {418-429}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.160}, pmid = {30447580}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Throughout the history of Romania, political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural (traditional) characters have affected the implementation of environment friendly techniques (EFTs) policies. In the context of this paper, EFTs can be defined as solutions for the use of land resources aiming the increasing of goods for meeting the changing human needs and with neutral or positive environmental impact. Changes in the political regime have always had a visible impact on the EFTs issue in Romania. EFTs has gone through several major phases. The political impact on EFTs implementation mainly affected sustainable land management (SLM) and to a small extent, at the end of the communist era and partly during the capitalist period, climate change mitigation. Throughout history, the political factor has dominated and influenced the capacity of the EFTs implementation process in responding to socio-economic stimuli. In addition, quality of life, rural-urban and urban-rural migrations, poverty, education level, and climate change adaptation have had impacts on the status of EFTs according to governance and political reflections. The agrarian reforms from the last two centuries, based on socio-economic demands, have strongly influenced the capacity to implement EFTs both positively and negatively. However, the cultural factor was least affected by political and socio-economic changes as a stability factor in ensuring continued implementation of the EFTs. Currently, there is a strong need to reconsider EFTs as sustainability tools for Romanian agriculture that can cope with climate change and sustainable land management (SLM) demands. This paper presents a brief history of EFTs in Romania and their benefits in achieving SLM equilibrium, describing the impacts of political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural features on implementing ETFs policies.}, } @article {pmid30446838, year = {2018}, author = {Sarun, S and Ghermandi, A and Sheela, AM and Justus, J and Vineetha, P}, title = {Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {12}, pages = {727}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-7095-3}, pmid = {30446838}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.}, } @article {pmid30445333, year = {2018}, author = {Eekhout, J and de Vente, J}, title = {Assessing the effectiveness of Sustainable Land Management for large-scale climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {85-93}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.350}, pmid = {30445333}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change will strongly affect essential ecosystem services, like the provision of freshwater, food production, soil erosion and flood control. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) practices are increasingly promoted to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, but there is lack of evidence at scales most relevant for policymaking. We evaluated the effectiveness of SLM in a large Mediterranean catchment where climate change is projected to significantly reduce water security. We show that the on-site and off-site impacts of climate change are almost entirely reversed by the large-scale implementation of SLM under moderate climate change conditions, characterized by limited reductions in annual precipitation but significant increased precipitation intensity. Under more extreme reductions of annual precipitation, SLM implementation reduces the impacts on water security, but cannot prevent significant increased plant water stress and reduced water availability. Under these conditions, additional adaptation measures are required considering their interactions and trade-offs regarding water security.}, } @article {pmid30444929, year = {2018}, author = {He, W and Yang, JY and Qian, B and Drury, CF and Hoogenboom, G and He, P and Lapen, D and Zhou, W}, title = {Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0207370}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0207370}, pmid = {30444929}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on agricultural systems is a major concern as it can have a significant effect on the world food supply. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production and nitrate leaching in two distinct climatic zones in Canada. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was selected for the semiarid regions of Western Canada (Swift Current, SK) and maize (Zea mays L.) was chosen for the more humid regions of central Canada (Woodslee, ON). Climate scenarios were based upon simulations from a Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and crop simulations were conducted using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Compared to the baseline climate scenario, wheat yields increased by 8, 8, 11, 15%, whereas maize yields decreased by 15, 25, 22, 41% under RCP4.5 2050s (2041-2070), RCP4.5 2080s (2071-2100), RCP8.5 2050s and RCP8.5 2080s scenarios, respectively. Annual nitrate leaching increased by 19, 57, 73, 129% at Swift Current and by 84, 117, 208, 317% at Woodslee under the four scenarios, respectively. Adaptation measures suggested that fertilizer N rate for spring wheat should be increased to 80-100 kg N ha-1 to obtain optimal yields although this will result in an additional risk of 5-8 kg N ha-1 nitrate leaching at Swift Current. The fertilizer N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 was found to be suitable for high maize yields at Woodslee. New wheat and maize cultivars with long growing seasons would enable crop growth to match the phenological stage and hence maintain high crop yields to adapt to increased temperatures in the future.}, } @article {pmid30444658, year = {2018}, author = {Wadgymar, SM and Mactavish, RM and Anderson, JT}, title = {Transgenerational and Within-Generation Plasticity in Response to Climate Change: Insights from a Manipulative Field Experiment across an Elevational Gradient.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {698-714}, doi = {10.1086/700097}, pmid = {30444658}, issn = {1537-5323}, abstract = {Parental environmental effects-or transgenerational plasticity-can influence an individual's phenotype or fitness yet remain underexplored in the context of global change. Using the perennial self-pollinating plant Boechera stricta, we explored the effects of climate change on transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in dormancy, germination, growth, and survival. We first conducted a snow removal experiment in the field, in which we transplanted 16 families of known origin into three common gardens at different elevations and exposed half of the siblings to contemporary snow dynamics and half to early snow removal. We planted the offspring of these individuals in a factorial manipulation of temperature and water level in the growth chamber and reciprocally transplanted them across all parental environments in the field. The growth chamber experiment revealed that the effects of transgenerational plasticity persist in traits expressed after establishment, even when accounting for parental effects on seed mass. The field experiment showed that transgenerational and within-generation plasticity can interact and that plasticity varies clinally in populations distributed across elevations. These findings demonstrate that transgenerational plasticity can influence fitness-related traits and should be incorporated in studies of biological responses to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30443732, year = {2018}, author = {Douglass-Gallagher, E and Stuart, D}, title = {Crop Growers' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: A Situated Study of Agriculture in Arizona's Verde Valley.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1114-6}, pmid = {30443732}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate change will pose unprecedented challenges for agricultural producers globally, requiring the ability to adapt to new and unpredictable conditions. This study explores the adaptive capacity of crop growers in the Verde Valley, Arizona (US). Rather than examining pre-determined indicators of adaptive capacity, this study adopts a situated framework that examines material conditions, perceptions, and the larger social context. Interviewers used past experiences and future scenarios to allow factors that enhance or constrain adaptive capacity to emerge from the interviews. Findings reveal adaptation is site specific but general measures can be taken to enhance adaptive capacity. Encouraging diversity in crops and water sources, the use of drought and heat tolerant crops, and the use of water conservation practices will likely increase growers' adaptive capacity. In contrast, lack of support from organizations and government programs, lack of diverse crops and sources of water, lack of awareness about climate change, and growers' confidence in their ability to always adapt impairs adaptive capacity. Verde Valley growers will need increased support from local and national organizations to adapt to projected changes. The situated framework applied in this study reveals important insights and could be used to explore adaptive capacity in other agricultural regions.}, } @article {pmid30442795, year = {2018}, author = {Klein, T and Hartmann, H}, title = {Climate change drives tree mortality.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6416}, pages = {758}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav6508}, pmid = {30442795}, issn = {1095-9203}, } @article {pmid30440075, year = {2018}, author = {Hemmer, CJ and Emmerich, P and Loebermann, M and Frimmel, S and Reisinger, EC}, title = {[Mosquitoes and Ticks: The Influence of Global Warming in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases in Germany].}, journal = {Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946)}, volume = {143}, number = {23}, pages = {1714-1722}, doi = {10.1055/a-0653-6333}, pmid = {30440075}, issn = {1439-4413}, abstract = {During the last 135 years, the average temperature in Germany has increased by 1.4 °C. By 2050, a further rise by 1.5 °C is expected. This is associated with an increase of precipitation during the winter months. This climate change probably will improve both the growth conditions for mosquitoes and ticks, as well as their ability to transmit infectious diseases. Today, vectors that have not yet been present are invading into Germany. Among them is Aedes albopictus, which transmits Chikungunya, Zika, and Dengue Fever. Also, spreading of autochthonous malaria and West Nile Fever appear possible in Germany. Because of the increased presence of Phlebotomus species, leishmaniasis should be considered as a potential differential diagnosis in unclear hematologic diseases. Among the tick-borne diseases, climate change has already led to increased case numbers of Borreliosis and Tick Borne Encephalitis (TBE), and Crimean Congo Virus is spreading from the Balkan region towards Central Europe. This requires physicians to consider additional differential diagnoses in febrile illnesses.}, } @article {pmid30430701, year = {2018}, author = {Varela, MR and Patrício, AR and Anderson, K and Broderick, AC and DeBell, L and Hawkes, LA and Tilley, D and Snape, RTE and Westoby, MJ and Godley, BJ}, title = {Assessing climate change associated sea level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones, photogrammetry and a novel GPS system.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14526}, pmid = {30430701}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change associated sea level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low-cost with low accuracy or high-cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone-based photogrammetry and a low-cost and portable real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here we applied this method as a case-study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (1) regions with highest nest densities, (2) nest elevation by species and beach, and (3) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30429613, year = {2018}, author = {Fadrique, B and Báez, S and Duque, Á and Malizia, A and Blundo, C and Carilla, J and Osinaga-Acosta, O and Malizia, L and Silman, M and Farfán-Ríos, W and Malhi, Y and Young, KR and Cuesta C, F and Homeier, J and Peralvo, M and Pinto, E and Jadan, O and Aguirre, N and Aguirre, Z and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0715-9}, pmid = {30429613}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Global warming is forcing many species to shift their distributions upward, causing consequent changes in the compositions of species that occur at specific locations. This prediction remains largely untested for tropical trees. Here we show, using a database of nearly 200 Andean forest plot inventories spread across more than 33.5° latitude (from 26.8° S to 7.1° N) and 3,000-m elevation (from 360 to 3,360 m above sea level), that tropical and subtropical tree communities are experiencing directional shifts in composition towards having greater relative abundances of species from lower, warmer elevations. Although this phenomenon of 'thermophilization' is widespread throughout the Andes, the rates of compositional change are not uniform across elevations. The observed heterogeneity in thermophilization rates is probably because of different warming rates and/or the presence of specialized tree communities at ecotones (that is, at the transitions between distinct habitats, such as at the timberline or at the base of the cloud forest). Understanding the factors that determine the directions and rates of compositional changes will enable us to better predict, and potentially mitigate, the effects of climate change on tropical forests.}, } @article {pmid30428540, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, C and Chen, J and Du, P and Yuan, H}, title = {Characteristics of Climate Change and Extreme Weather from 1951 to 2011 in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112540}, pmid = {30428540}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {2018YFC0806900//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 71790613//Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {It has been demonstrated that climate change is an established fact. A good comprehension of climate and extreme weather variation characteristics on a temporal and a spatial scale is important for adaptation and response. In this work, the characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather distribution and variation is summarized for a period of 60 years and the seasonal fluctuation of temperature and precipitation is also analyzed. The results illustrate the reduction in daily and annual temperature divergence on both temporal and spatial scales. However, the gaps remain relatively significant. Furthermore, the disparity in daily and annual precipitation are found to be increasing on both temporal and spatial scales. The findings indicate that climate change, to a certain extent, narrowed the temperature gap while widening the precipitation gap on temporal and spatial scales in China.}, } @article {pmid30426378, year = {2018}, author = {Fang, J and Lau, CKM and Lu, Z and Wu, W and Zhu, L}, title = {Natural disasters, climate change, and their impact on inclusive wealth in G20 countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3634-2}, pmid = {30426378}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {16BJY052//The National Social Science Fund of China/ ; }, abstract = {This paper uses the 1990-2010 natural disaster and carbon emission data of G20 countries to examine the impact of natural disasters and climate change on the natural capital component of inclusive wealth. Our study shows that climate change and GDP have no positive impacts on the growth of natural capital. By contrast, trade openness and natural disaster frequency contribute to the accumulation of natural capital in G20 countries. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the growth of natural capital and the magnitude of natural disaster. Natural capital growth is not affected very much by small disasters. By contrast, large disasters tend to make the growth of natural capital fall sharply.}, } @article {pmid30419441, year = {2018}, author = {Makate, C and Makate, M and Mango, N and Siziba, S}, title = {Increasing resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change through multiple adoption of proven climate-smart agriculture innovations. Lessons from Southern Africa.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {858-868}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.069}, pmid = {30419441}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize, and improved legume varieties are key climate change management strategies for smallholder farmers in southern Africa. Their complementary efforts in adaptation to climate change are sternly important for farm productivity and income. This study evaluates factors explaining individual and multiple adoption of climate change management strategies and their differential impacts on productivity and income using a sample of 1172 smallholder farmers from Malawi and Zimbabwe. The study employs multinomial logistic regression to evaluate factors of individual and multiple adoption and regression adjustment with inverse probability weighting to evaluate impacts of the different adoption regimes on farm productivity and income. The results show that multiple adoption of innovations is mostly explained by access to key resources (credit, income and information), level of education and size of land owned by the farmer. More so, the concurrent adoption of conservation agriculture, stress adapted legume varieties and drought tolerant maize has far greater dividends on productivity and income than when considered individually. However, impacts of multiple adoption of the practices are not entirely uniform across different geographic regions and gender. Results suggest that effective institutional and policy efforts targeted towards reducing resource constraints that inhibit farmers' capacity to adopt complementary climate-smart agriculture packages such as conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize and improved legume varieties must be gender sensitive and context specific.}, } @article {pmid30418152, year = {2018}, author = {Zohner, CM and Mo, L and Renner, SS}, title = {Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7554/eLife.40214}, pmid = {30418152}, issn = {2050-084X}, abstract = {The temporal overlap of phenological stages, phenological synchrony, crucially influences ecosystem functioning. For flowering, among-individual synchrony influences gene flow. For leaf-out, it affects interactions with herbivores and competing plants. If individuals differ in their reaction to the ongoing change in global climate, this should affect population-level synchrony. Here, we use climate-manipulation experiments, Pan-European long-term (>15 years) observations, and common garden monitoring data on up to 72 woody and herbaceous species to study the effects of increasing temperatures on the extent of leaf-out and flowering synchrony within populations. Warmer temperatures reduce in situ leaf-out and flowering synchrony by up to 55%, and experiments on European beech provide a mechanism for how individual differences in day-length and/or chilling sensitivity may explain this finding. The rapid loss of reproductive and vegetative synchrony in European plants predicts changes in their gene flow and trophic interactions, but community-wide consequences remain largely unknown.

Editorial note: This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).}, } @article {pmid30417977, year = {2018}, author = {Jarić, I and Lennox, RJ and Kalinkat, G and Cvijanović, G and Radinger, J}, title = {Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: species profiling based on life-history and environmental characteristics.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14518}, pmid = {30417977}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio-temporal distributions, and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. To this end, we collated life history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life-history and climatic niche, with climate-change susceptible species being distributed within the Mediterranean region, and being characterized by greater threat levels, lesser commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body and range size, and warmer thermal envelopes. Based on our results, we establish a list of species of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool to efficiently assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30414338, year = {2018}, author = {Coleman, MA and Butcherine, P and Kelaher, BP and Broadhurst, MK and March, DT and Provost, EJ and David, J and Benkendorff, K}, title = {Climate change does not affect seafood quality of a common targeted fish.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14513}, pmid = {30414338}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near-future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and economically important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near-future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro-and micronutrients, moisture, ash, and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near-future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their broad spatio-temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near-future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats, and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future.We contend that widely-distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be "climate-winners" by being resilient to negative direct impacts of near-future oceanic and estuarine climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30413121, year = {2018}, author = {Gao, X and Wang, A and Zhao, Y and Zhao, X and Sun, M and Du, J and Gang, C}, title = {Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112504}, pmid = {30413121}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {With the implementation of the Grain for Green Project, the apple plantation area is increasing in Loess Plateau. However, due to severe water scarcity, the sustainability of apple tree growth is threatened. In this paper, we used meteorological data (1990⁻2013) and forecasted climate data (2019⁻2050) to estimate water demand and establish a water suitability model to study the water balance between available water and water consumption of the apple trees. The results show that: (i) the order of the average water demand of apple plantation in each subarea is Shaanxi Province > Yuncheng area > Gansu Province > Sanmenxia Region, ranging from 500 to 950 mm; (ii) the temporal variability of water suitability from 1990 to 2013 is large, and the higher values are concentrated in the late growth stage of the apple trees and the lower values are concentrated in the early growth stage; (iii) the temporal and spatial distribution of water suitability is relatively stable and even in the Loess Plateau in the period of 2019⁻2050; (iv) the water suitability is mainly affected by effective precipitation and reference evapotranspiration and the reference evapotranspiration is mainly affected by the solar radiation (36%) and average temperature (38%). Furthermore, due to the joint influence of precipitation increases and solar radiation (average temperature) increases, the future water suitability of the apple plantation area in the Loess Plateau is showing a non-significant downward trend under RCP4.5 scenario.}, } @article {pmid30412888, year = {2018}, author = {Op de Hipt, F and Diekkrüger, B and Steup, G and Yira, Y and Hoffmann, T and Rode, M and Näschen, K}, title = {Modeling the effect of land use and climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical West African catch-ment (Dano, Burkina Faso) using SHETRAN.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {431-445}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.351}, pmid = {30412888}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates the effect of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate change on catchment hydrology and soil erosion in the Dano catchment in south-western Burkina Faso based on hydrological and soil erosion modeling. The past LULC change is studied using land use maps of the years 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2013. Based on these maps future LULC scenarios were developed for the years 2019, 2025 and 2030. The observed past and modeled future LULC are used to feed SHETRAN, a hydrological and soil erosion model. Observed and modeled climate data cover the period 1990-2030. The isolated influence of LULC change assuming a constant climate is simulated by applying the seven LULC maps under observed climate data of the period 1990-2015. The isolated effect of climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CCLM4-8) is studied by applying the LULC map of 1990 to the period 1990-2032. Additionally, we combined past modeled climate data and past observed LULC maps. Two chronological and continuous simulations were used to estimate the impact of LULC in the past and in the future by gradually applying the LULC maps. These simulations consider the combined impact of LULC and climate change. The simulations that assumed a constant climate and a changing LULC show increasing water yield (3.6%-46.5%) and mainly increasing specific sediment yield (-3.3%-52.6%). The simulations that assume constant LULC and climate as changing factor indicate increases in water yield of 24.5% to 46.7% and in sediment yield of 31.1% to 54.7% between the periods 1990-2005 and 2006-2032. The continuous simulations signal a clear increase in water yield (20.3%-73.4%) and specific sediment yield (24.7% to 90.1%). Actual evapotranspiration is estimated to change by between -7.3% (only LUCC) to +3.3% (only climate change). When comparing observed LULC and climate change alone, climate change has a larger impact on discharge and sediment yield, but LULC amplifies climate change impacts strongly. However, future LULC (2019-2030) will have a stronger impact as currently observed.}, } @article {pmid30409881, year = {2018}, author = {Kubelka, V and Šálek, M and Tomkovich, P and Végvári, Z and Freckleton, RP and Székely, T}, title = {Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6415}, pages = {680-683}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat8695}, pmid = {30409881}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.}, } @article {pmid30409435, year = {2018}, author = {Godin-Beekmann, S}, title = {[Impact of climate change and ozone layer evolution on surface ultraviolet radiation].}, journal = {Annales de dermatologie et de venereologie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.annder.2018.09.159}, pmid = {30409435}, issn = {0151-9638}, } @article {pmid30408274, year = {2018}, author = {Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Tittensor, DP and Blanchard, JL and Cheung, WWL and Coll, M and Galbraith, ED and Jennings, S and Maury, O and Lotze, HK}, title = {21st century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14512}, pmid = {30408274}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15-30% (±12-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20-80% (±35-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30408266, year = {2018}, author = {Salas, RN and Slutzman, JE and Sorensen, C and Lemery, J and Hess, JJ}, title = {Climate Change and Health: An Urgent Call to Academic Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/acem.13657}, pmid = {30408266}, issn = {1553-2712}, abstract = {There is consensus among 97% of scientists that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and international agreement of the grave threat it poses.1,2 A Lancet Commission declared climate change "the biggest global health threat of the 21st century" with "potentially catastrophic risk to human health."3,4 Emergency medicine (EM) is already on the frontlines as climate change directly affects our patients, clinical practice, and emergency departments (EDs). This presents EM with a profound leadership opportunity to join our colleagues in the house of medicine to improve health and save lives. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30408043, year = {2018}, author = {Montero, N and Dei Marcovaldi, MAG and Lopez-Mendilaharsu, M and Santos, AS and Santos, AJB and Fuentes, MMPB}, title = {Warmer and wetter conditions will reduce offspring production of hawksbill turtles in Brazil under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0204188}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0204188}, pmid = {30408043}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact animals that are heavily reliant on environmental factors, such as sea turtles, since the incubation of their eggs, hatching success and sex ratio are influenced by the environment in which eggs incubate. As climate change progresses it is therefore important to understand how climatic conditions influence their reproductive output and the ramifications to population stability. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success (number of eggs hatched within a nest) across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence success (number of hatchlings that emerged from total hatched eggs within a nest) at both regions. Warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation had negative effects on hatchling production, while wetter conditions had a positive effect. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase at this site, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100 as a result of how this population is influenced by local climate. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.}, } @article {pmid30408029, year = {2018}, author = {Alexander, KA and Heaney, AK and Shaman, J}, title = {Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {e1002688}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002688}, pmid = {30408029}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1- and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS: In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate-health interactions in these systems.}, } @article {pmid30406962, year = {2018}, author = {Esquivel-Muelbert, A and Baker, TR and Dexter, KG and Lewis, SL and Brienen, RJW and Feldpausch, TR and Lloyd, J and Monteagudo-Mendoza, A and Arroyo, L and Álvarez-Dávila, E and Higuchi, N and Marimon, BS and Marimon-Junior, BH and Silveira, M and Vilanova, E and Gloor, E and Malhi, Y and Chave, J and Barlow, J and Bonal, D and Davila Cardozo, N and Erwin, T and Fauset, S and Hérault, B and Laurance, S and Poorter, L and Qie, L and Stahl, C and Sullivan, MJP and Ter Steege, H and Vos, VA and Zuidema, PA and Almeida, E and Almeida de Oliveira, E and Andrade, A and Vieira, SA and Aragão, L and Araujo-Murakami, A and Arets, E and Aymard C, GA and Camargo, PB and Barroso, JG and Bongers, F and Boot, R and Camargo, JL and Castro, W and Chama Moscoso, V and Comiskey, J and Cornejo Valverde, F and Lola da Costa, AC and Del Aguila Pasquel, J and Di Fiore, T and Fernanda Duque, L and Elias, F and Engel, J and Flores Llampazo, G and Galbraith, D and Herrera Fernández, R and Honorio Coronado, E and Hubau, W and Jimenez-Rojas, E and Lima, AJN and Umetsu, RK and Laurance, W and Lopez-Gonzalez, G and Lovejoy, T and Aurelio Melo Cruz, O and Morandi, PS and Neill, D and Núñez Vargas, P and Pallqui, NC and Parada Gutierrez, A and Pardo, G and Peacock, J and Peña-Claros, M and Peñuela-Mora, MC and Petronelli, P and Pickavance, GC and Pitman, N and Prieto, A and Quesada, C and Ramírez-Angulo, H and Réjou-Méchain, M and Restrepo Correa, Z and Roopsind, A and Rudas, A and Salomão, R and Silva, N and Silva Espejo, J and Singh, J and Stropp, J and Terborgh, J and Thomas, R and Toledo, M and Torres-Lezama, A and Valenzuela Gamarra, L and van de Meer, PJ and van der Heijden, G and van der Hout, P and Vasquez Martinez, R and Vela, C and Vieira, ICG and Phillips, OL}, title = {Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14413}, pmid = {30406962}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/N004655/1//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; //NERC Consortium Grants "AMAZONICA"/ ; //BIO-RED/ ; //European Research Council (ERC)/ ; //The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation/ ; 282664//European Union's Seventh Framework Programme/ ; CH160091//Royal Society/ ; //Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award/ ; }, abstract = {Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.}, } @article {pmid30405277, year = {2018}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Guo, Y and Sera, F and Huber, V and Schleussner, CF and Mitchell, D and Tong, S and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Saldiva, PHN and Lavigne, E and Correa, PM and Ortega, NV and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Kyselý, J and Urban, A and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Pascal, M and Goodman, PG and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and Scortichini, M and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Hurtado-Diaz, M and Cruz, J and Seposo, X and Kim, H and Tobias, A and Íñiguez, C and Forsberg, B and Åström, DO and Ragettli, MS and Röösli, M and Guo, YL and Wu, CF and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Bell, ML and Dang, TN and Van, DD and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S and Hajat, S and Haines, A and Armstrong, B and Ebi, KL and Gasparrini, A}, title = {Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {150}, number = {3-4}, pages = {391-402}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3}, pmid = {30405277}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.}, } @article {pmid30404727, year = {2018}, author = {Obradovich, N and Migliorini, R}, title = {Sleep and the human impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Sleep medicine reviews}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.smrv.2018.09.002}, pmid = {30404727}, issn = {1532-2955}, } @article {pmid30402535, year = {2018}, author = {d'Alpoim Guedes, J and Bocinsky, RK}, title = {Climate change stimulated agricultural innovation and exchange across Asia.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {eaar4491}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aar4491}, pmid = {30402535}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Ancient farmers experienced climate change at the local level through variations in the yields of their staple crops. However, archaeologists have had difficulty in determining where, when, and how changes in climate affected ancient farmers. We model how several key transitions in temperature affected the productivity of six grain crops across Eurasia. Cooling events between 3750 and 3000 cal. BP lead humans in parts of the Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia to diversify their crops. A second event at 2000 cal. BP leads farmers in central China to also diversify their cropping systems and to develop systems that allowed transport of grains from southern to northern China. In other areas where crop returns fared even worse, humans reduced their risk by increasing investment in nomadic pastoralism and developing long-distance networks of trade. By translating changes in climatic variables into factors that mattered to ancient farmers, we situate the adaptive strategies they developed to deal with variance in crop returns in the context of environmental and climatic changes.}, } @article {pmid30402056, year = {2018}, author = {Bezeng, BS and Tesfamichael, SG and Dayananda, B and , }, title = {Predicting the effect of climate change on a range-restricted lizard in southeastern Australia.}, journal = {Current zoology}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {165-171}, doi = {10.1093/cz/zox021}, pmid = {30402056}, issn = {1674-5507}, abstract = {Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different climate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.}, } @article {pmid30401921, year = {2018}, author = {Bauduin, S and McIntire, E and St-Laurent, MH and Cumming, SG}, title = {Compensatory conservation measures for an endangered caribou population under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16438}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-34822-9}, pmid = {30401921}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Future human land use and climate change may disrupt movement behaviors of terrestrial animals, thereby altering the ability of individuals to move across a landscape. Some of the expected changes result from processes whose effects will be difficult to alter, such as global climate change. We present a novel framework in which we use models to (1) identify the ecological changes from these difficult-to-alter processes, as well as (2) the potential conservation measures that are best able to compensate for these changes. We illustrated this framework with the case of an endangered caribou population in Québec, Canada. We coupled a spatially explicit individual-based movement model with a range of landscape scenarios to assess the impacts of varying degrees of climate change, and the ability of conservation actions to compensate for such impacts on caribou movement behaviors. We found that (1) climate change impacts reduced movement potential, and that (2) the complete restoration of secondary roads inside protected areas was able to fully offset this reduction, suggesting that road restoration would be an effective compensatory conservation action. By evaluating conservation actions via landscape use simulated by an individual-based model, we were able to identify compensatory conservation options for an endangered species facing climate change.}, } @article {pmid30400337, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, GJ and Bergquist, R}, title = {Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/tropicalmed3040117}, pmid = {30400337}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S.mansoni and S.haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021⁻2050 and 2071⁻2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.}, } @article {pmid30398569, year = {2018}, author = {Clearfield, M and Davis, G and Weis, J and Gayer, G and Shubrook, JH}, title = {Cardiovascular Disease as a Result of the Interactions Between Obesity, Climate Change, and Inflammation: The COCCI Syndemic.}, journal = {The Journal of the American Osteopathic Association}, volume = {118}, number = {11}, pages = {719-729}, doi = {10.7556/jaoa.2018.157}, pmid = {30398569}, issn = {1945-1997}, abstract = {Obesity and climate change conspire to create an environment in which subclinical vascular inflammation leads to progressive atherosclerosis, which contributes to the number 1 cause of global mortality: cardiovascular disease. The syndemic model requires 2 or more diseases or contributors to disease (such as obesity and climate change) clustering within a specific population in addition to the associated societal and social factors, ultimately creating an environment supportive of a greater adverse interaction. This article explores the syndemic of obesity and climate change as a driver for cardiovascular disease.}, } @article {pmid30395645, year = {2018}, author = {Jaime, R and Alcántara, JM and Manzaneda, AJ and Rey, PJ}, title = {Climate change decreases suitable areas for rapeseed cultivation in Europe but provides new opportunities for white mustard as an alternative oilseed for biofuel production.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0207124}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0207124}, pmid = {30395645}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Oilseed crops, including several mustards, are cultivated as biofuel sources worldwide. However, common mustard crops (e.g., the rapeseed Brassica napus) grow naturally in mesic temperate regions, which are expected to be impaired by global warming and increased aridity. In particular, increased aridity is predicted to reduce the oil concentration and seed yield of rapeseed crops. There is therefore an urgent need to identify alternative bioenergy crops that are preadapted to future climatic conditions. An alternative to conventional Brassica species for biodiesel production is the white mustard Sinapis alba, which is native to the circum-Mediterranean region and has a high seed lipid content. S. alba grows spontaneously in olive groves and other widespread Mediterranean crops; accordingly, it could be easily cultivated by companion planting to improve ecosystem function by decreasing soil loss, controlling microbial disease, and assisting in the maintenance of biodiversity. In this study, using species distribution modeling, we predicted climatically suitable areas for the cultivation of S. alba in Western Europe across the Mediterranean Basin under present climatic conditions and several climate change scenarios. We show that current climatically suitable areas for S. alba cultivation do not overlap with those for B. napus. Unlike B. napus, S. alba could be cultivated throughout most of the circum-Mediterranean region. According to our models, increases in aridity and annual mean temperatures will expand the climatically suitable areas for S. alba in the Mediterranean Basin. However, suitable areas for the cultivation of B. napus will decrease significantly in Western Europe. Our results indicate that S. alba is a strong, environmentally safe candidate for biofuel production throughout the Mediterranean Basin and other Western European countries, especially under climate change scenarios that are expected to impair current oilseed crops.}, } @article {pmid30393928, year = {2018}, author = {Lehikoinen, P and Santangeli, A and Jaatinen, K and Rajasärkkä, A and Lehikoinen, A}, title = {Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change-Evidence from large-scale, long-term abundance data.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14461}, pmid = {30393928}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {275606//Suomen Akatemia/ ; 283664//Suomen Akatemia/ ; 307909//Suomen Akatemia/ ; 201600187//Maj ja Tor Nesslingin Säätiö/ ; 201700195//Maj ja Tor Nesslingin Säätiö/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large-scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s-80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s-80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.}, } @article {pmid30393451, year = {2018}, author = {Hamidov, A and Helming, K and Bellocchi, G and Bojar, W and Dalgaard, T and Ghaley, BB and Hoffmann, C and Holman, I and Holzkämper, A and Krzeminska, D and Kværnø, SH and Lehtonen, H and Niedrist, G and Øygarden, L and Reidsma, P and Roggero, PP and Rusu, T and Santos, C and Seddaiu, G and Skarbøvik, E and Ventrella, D and Żarski, J and Schönhart, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies.}, journal = {Land degradation & development}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2378-2389}, doi = {10.1002/ldr.3006}, pmid = {30393451}, issn = {1099-145X}, abstract = {Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.}, } @article {pmid30390399, year = {2018}, author = {Reside, AE and Critchell, K and Crayn, DM and Goosem, M and Goosem, S and Hoskin, CJ and Sydes, T and Vanderduys, EP and Pressey, RL}, title = {Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1824}, pmid = {30390399}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modelling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modelling under- or over-estimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30385868, year = {2018}, author = {Lim, YK and Schubert, SD and Kovach, R and Molod, AM and Pawson, S}, title = {The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16172}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5}, pmid = {30385868}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; }, abstract = {The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 °C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 °C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.}, } @article {pmid30385766, year = {2018}, author = {Hummel, M and Hallahan, BF and Brychkova, G and Ramirez-Villegas, J and Guwela, V and Chataika, B and Curley, E and McKeown, PC and Morrison, L and Talsma, EF and Beebe, S and Jarvis, A and Chirwa, R and Spillane, C}, title = {Reduction in nutritional quality and growing area suitability of common bean under climate change induced drought stress in Africa.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16187}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-33952-4}, pmid = {30385766}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CropBioFort project funded by the Irish Research Council&#x2019;s New Foundations program//Irish Research Council/ ; GOIPG/2014/1021//Irish Research Council/ ; GOIPG/2014/1021 and the CropBioFort project//Irish Research Council/ ; 13/IA/1820//Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)/ ; 13/IA/1820//Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on food security will involve negative impacts on crop yields, and potentially on the nutritional quality of staple crops. Common bean is the most important grain legume staple crop for human diets and nutrition worldwide. We demonstrate by crop modeling that the majority of current common bean growing areas in southeastern Africa will become unsuitable for bean cultivation by the year 2050. We further demonstrate reductions in yields of available common bean varieties in a field trial that is a climate analogue site for future predicted drought conditions. Little is known regarding the impact of climate change induced abiotic stresses on the nutritional quality of common beans. Our analysis of nutritional and antinutritional compounds reveals that iron levels in common bean grains are reduced under future climate-scenario relevant drought stress conditions. In contrast, the levels of protein, zinc, lead and phytic acid increase in the beans under such drought stress conditions. This indicates that under climate-change induced drought scenarios, future bean servings by 2050 will likely have lower nutritional quality, posing challenges for ongoing climate-proofing of bean production for yields, nutritional quality, human health, and food security.}, } @article {pmid30380686, year = {2018}, author = {Bishop-Williams, KE and Berrang-Ford, L and Sargeant, JM and Pearl, DL and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Edge, VL and Cunsolo, A and , and , and Huang, Y and Ford, J and Garcia, P and Harper, SL}, title = {Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112402}, pmid = {30380686}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {X//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; X//National Sciences and Engineering Council (Canada)/ ; X//Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (Canada)/ ; X//Ontario Veterinary College Graduate Scholarship/ ; X//Ontario Graduate Scholar/ ; }, abstract = {Background: Season and weather are associated with many health outcomes, which can influence hospital admission rates. We examined associations between hospital admissions (all diagnoses) and local meteorological parameters in Southwestern Uganda, with the aim of supporting hospital planning and preparedness in the context of climate change. Methods: Hospital admissions data and meteorological data were collected from Bwindi Community Hospital and a satellite database of weather conditions, respectively (2011 to 2014). Descriptive statistics were used to describe admission patterns. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was fitted to investigate associations between hospital admissions and season, precipitation, and temperature. Results: Admission counts were highest for acute respiratory infections, malaria, and acute gastrointestinal illness, which are climate-sensitive diseases. Hospital admissions were 1.16 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.31; p = 0.008) times higher during extreme high temperatures (i.e., >95th percentile) on the day of admission. Hospital admissions association with season depended on year; admissions were higher in the dry season than the rainy season every year, except for 2014. Discussion: Effective adaptation strategy characteristics include being low-cost and quick and practical to implement at local scales. Herein, we illustrate how analyzing hospital data alongside meteorological parameters may inform climate-health planning in low-resource contexts.}, } @article {pmid30380174, year = {2018}, author = {Li, J and Li, D and Xue, Y and Wu, B and He, X and Liu, F}, title = {Identifying potential refugia and corridors under climate change: A case study of endangered Sichuan golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Qinling Mountains, China.}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {80}, number = {11}, pages = {e22929}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.22929}, pmid = {30380174}, issn = {1098-2345}, support = {2013BAD03B03//National Science & Technology Pillar Program for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period-Technology of Habitat Assessment and Restoration for Shennongjia Golden Monkey/ ; 2018M631624//Project Funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens endangered species and challenges current conservation strategies. Effective conservation requires vulnerability assessments for species susceptible to climate change and adaptive strategies to mitigate threats associated with climate. In this paper, we used the Maxent to model the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Sichuan golden monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for Sichuan golden monkey was predicted to decrease by 37% in 2050s under climate change; (ii) the mean elevations of suitable habitat in the 2050s was estimated to shift 160 m higher; (iii) nature reserves protect 62% of current suitable habitat and 56% of future suitable habitat; and (iv) 49% of current suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change. Given these results, we proposed conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Sichuan golden monkey, including adjusting range of national park, establishing habitat corridors, and conducting long-term monitoring.}, } @article {pmid30379857, year = {2018}, author = {Case, MJ and Stinson, KA}, title = {Climate change impacts on the distribution of the allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in the eastern United States.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205677}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0205677}, pmid = {30379857}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.}, } @article {pmid30379845, year = {2018}, author = {Vicens, J and Bueno-Guerra, N and Gutiérrez-Roig, M and Gracia-Lázaro, C and Gómez-Gardeñes, J and Perelló, J and Sánchez, A and Moreno, Y and Duch, J}, title = {Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0204369}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0204369}, pmid = {30379845}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change mitigation is a shared global challenge that involves collective action of a set of individuals with different tendencies to cooperation. However, we lack an understanding of the effect of resource inequality when diverse actors interact together towards a common goal. Here, we report the results of a collective-risk dilemma experiment in which groups of individuals were initially given either equal or unequal endowments. We found that the effort distribution was highly inequitable, with participants with fewer resources contributing significantly more to the public goods than the richer -sometimes twice as much. An unsupervised learning algorithm classified the subjects according to their individual behavior, finding the poorest participants within two "generous clusters" and the richest into a "greedy cluster". Our results suggest that policies would benefit from educating about fairness and reinforcing climate justice actions addressed to vulnerable people instead of focusing on understanding generic or global climate consequences.}, } @article {pmid30378103, year = {2018}, author = {Clewlow, HL and Takahashi, A and Watanabe, S and Votier, SC and Downie, R and Ratcliffe, N}, title = {Niche partitioning of sympatric penguins by leapfrog foraging appears to be resilient to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12919}, pmid = {30378103}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {1.Interspecific competition can drive niche partitioning along multidimensional axes, including allochrony. Competitor matching will arise where the phenology of sympatric species with similar ecological requirements respond to climate change at different rates such that allochrony is reduced. 2.Our study quantifies the degree of niche segregation in foraging areas and depths that arises from allochrony in sympatric Adélie and chinstrap penguins and explores its resilience to climate change. 3.Three-dimensional tracking data were sampled during all stages of the breeding season and were used to parameterise a behaviour-based model that quantified spatial overlap of foraging areas under different scenarios of allochrony. 4.The foraging ranges of the two species were similar within breeding stages, but differences in their foraging ranges between stages, combined with the observed allochrony of 28 days, resulted in them leapfrogging each other through the breeding season such that they were exploiting different foraging locations on the same calendar dates. Allochrony reduced spatial overlap in the peripheral utilisation distribution of the two species by 54.0% over the entire breeding season, compared to a scenario where the two species bred synchronously. 5.Analysis of long-term phenology data revealed that both species advanced their laying dates in relation to October air temperatures at the same rate, preserving allochrony and niche partitioning. However if allochrony is reduced by just a single day, the spatial overlap of the core utilisation distribution increased by an average of 2.1% over the entire breeding season. 6.Niche partitioning between the two species by allochrony appears to be resilient to climate change and so competitor matching cannot be implicated in the observed population declines of the two penguin species across the Western Antarctic Peninsula. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30377877, year = {2018}, author = {Patz, JA}, title = {Altered Disease Risk from Climate Change.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10393-018-1382-x}, pmid = {30377877}, issn = {1612-9210}, } @article {pmid30375880, year = {2018}, author = {Trájer, AJ and Nagy, G and Domokos, E}, title = {Exploration of the heterogeneous effect of climate change on ozone concentration in an urban environment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2018.1539703}, pmid = {30375880}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Ozone is a significant causative agent of mortality in cities. Urban environments are expressly vulnerable to global warming because of the extensive emission of air pollutants with urban heat island effect enhancing much rapidly the ozone concentration than in the less urbanized regions. This effect previously was not studied in local scale. It was hypothesized that climate change will cause heterogenic increase of ozone concentration in the different parts of the cities. To study this effect, the near-surface ozone concentration of 10 points of a Hungarian city was measured and modeled. At first step, the local correlations between solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and the near surface ozone concentrations at 3 m height were determined, specifying the local ozone-producing conditions. Then, based on the scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th assessment report, the future seasonal near-surface ozone concentrations were modeled. Based on the model, it was determined that climate change will result in a heterogenic increase of near-surface ozone concentration.}, } @article {pmid30374458, year = {2018}, author = {Ladau, J and Shi, Y and Jing, X and He, JS and Chen, L and Lin, X and Fierer, N and Gilbert, JA and Pollard, KS and Chu, H}, title = {Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes.}, journal = {mSystems}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1128/mSystems.00167-18}, pmid = {30374458}, issn = {2379-5077}, abstract = {Soil bacteria are key to ecosystem function and maintenance of soil fertility. Leveraging associations of current geographic distributions of bacteria with historic climate, we predict that soil bacterial diversity will increase across the majority (∼75%) of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial communities equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. This prediction is possible because the current distributions of soil bacteria have stronger correlations with climate from ∼50 years ago than with current climate. This lag is likely associated with the time it takes for soil properties to adjust to changes in climate. The predicted changes are location specific and differ across bacterial taxa, including some bacteria that are predicted to have reductions in their distributions. These findings illuminate the widespread potential of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. IMPORTANCE There have been many studies highlighting how plant and animal communities lag behind climate change, causing extinction and diversity debts that will slowly be paid as communities equilibrate. By virtue of their short generation times and dispersal abilities, soil bacteria might be expected to respond to climate change quickly and to be effectively in equilibrium with current climatic conditions. We found strong evidence to the contrary in Tibet and North America. These findings could significantly improve understanding of climate impacts on soil microbial communities.}, } @article {pmid30373825, year = {2018}, author = {Freeman, BG and Scholer, MN and Ruiz-Gutierrez, V and Fitzpatrick, JW}, title = {Climate change causes upslope shifts and mountaintop extirpations in a tropical bird community.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1804224115}, pmid = {30373825}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Montane species worldwide are shifting upslope in response to recent temperature increases. These upslope shifts are predicted to lead to mountaintop extinctions of species that live only near mountain summits, but empirical examples of populations that have disappeared are sparse. We show that recent warming constitutes an "escalator to extinction" for birds on a remote Peruvian mountain-high-elevation species have declined in both range size and abundance, and several previously common mountaintop residents have disappeared from the local community. Our findings support projections that warming will likely drive widespread extirpations and extinctions of high-elevation taxa in the tropical Andes. Such climate change-driven mountaintop extirpations may be more likely in the tropics, where temperature seems to exert a stronger control on species' range limits than in the temperate zone. In contrast, we show that lowland bird species at our study site are expanding in range size as they shift their upper limits upslope and may thus benefit from climate change.}, } @article {pmid30373158, year = {2018}, author = {Ebi, KL and Berry, P and Hayes, K and Boyer, C and Sellers, S and Enright, PM and Hess, JJ}, title = {Stress Testing the Capacity of Health Systems to Manage Climate Change-Related Shocks and Stresses.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112370}, pmid = {30373158}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Vulnerability and adaptation assessments can provide valuable input to foster climate-resilient health systems. However, these assessments often do not explore the potential health risks of climate change far outside the range of recent experience with extreme weather events and other climate-related hazards. Climate and health stress tests are designed to increase the capacity of health systems and related sectors to manage potentially disruptive climate-related shocks and stresses. Stress tests focus on hypothetical scenarios, during which it would be difficult for the health system to maintain its essential function of providing services to protect population health. The stress test explores approaches to effectively manage acute and chronic climate-related events and conditions that could directly impact health systems, and climate-related events in non-health sectors that can indirectly impact health outcomes and/or health system function. We provide detailed methods and guidance for conducting climate and health stress tests, centering on three primary activities: (1) preparing and scoping the stress test; (2) successfully conducting the stress test; and (3) communicating the results to key stakeholders to facilitate policy and programmatic reforms.}, } @article {pmid30373063, year = {2019}, author = {Parajuli, R and Thoma, G and Matlock, MD}, title = {Environmental sustainability of fruit and vegetable production supply chains in the face of climate change: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2863-2879}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.019}, pmid = {30373063}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study discusses importance of assessing environmental sustainability of fruits and vegetable (F&V) production sector in future climate change (CC) scenarios. For the current production scenario, life cycle environmental footprints of F&V supply chain are discussed considering the influences of: agro-climates, production systems, raw material inputs, post-harvest managements to the products' yield and quality. Potential risks of CC to the sector are discussed in the context of elevated global temperature and carbon dioxide level, ozone depletion and changes in precipitation patterns. Potential risks due to CC are on the productivity and the quality of F&V products, such as texture, color, maturity and nutrients. Increased risk of failure of the current crop protection strategies, e.g. due to pest infestations and different crop-water and nutrient stresses are among the short and long-term risks. It also discusses potential adaptation and mitigation measures to CC, and therefrom argues on the related environmental consequences in the supply chain. From the LCA studies, it was revealed that environmental impacts of F&V supply chain varied as per agro-ecological characteristics and farming systems, e.g. greenhouse vs open-field, organic vs conventional, and grown in different agro-climatic conditions. The nexus among the climatic stresses, potential adaptation and mitigation measures, hence were in the form of potential changes in the raw material inputs and resource flows depending on the preferred future agro-management strategies and farming practices. Adaptation and other management options, included are, changes in: crop calendar, nutrient and pest management strategies, post-harvest handling and improved preservation of F&V products. These are argued eventually being determining factors leading to different environmental footprints compared to the existing management scenarios. Prospective life cycle environmental evaluation of F&V supply chain considering the relationship among product yield and qualities, CC stresses and potential adaptation and mitigation measures is thus a new thrust and direction.}, } @article {pmid30370745, year = {2018}, author = {Michelozzi, P and De' Donato, F}, title = {[Climate change and air quality: a "liaison dangereuse"].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {42}, number = {5-6}, pages = {382-383}, doi = {10.19191/EP18.5-6.P382.112}, pmid = {30370745}, issn = {1120-9763}, } @article {pmid30369830, year = {2018}, author = {van Lange, PAM and Rinderu, MI and Bushman, BJ}, title = {CLASH: Climate (change) and cultural evolution of intergroup conflict.}, journal = {Group processes & intergroup relations : GPIR}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {457-471}, doi = {10.1177/1368430217735579}, pmid = {30369830}, issn = {1368-4302}, abstract = {Aggression and violence levels generally increase as one moves closer to the equator, but why? We developed a new theoretical model, CLimate, Aggression, and Self-control in Humans (CLASH; van Lange, Rinderu, & Bushman, 2017b, 2017c), to understand differences within and between countries in aggression and violence in terms of differences in climate. Colder temperatures, and especially larger degrees of seasonal variation in climate, call for individuals and groups to adopt a slower life history strategy, revealed in a greater focus on the future (vs. present) and a stronger focus on self-control-variables that are known to inhibit aggression and violence. Other variables (e.g., wealth, income inequality, parasite stress) are also linked to both climate differences and to aggression and violence differences. When people think of the consequences of climate change, they rarely think of the impact on aggression and violence levels, but they should. CLASH has broad implications for the effects of climate change on intergroup conflict.}, } @article {pmid30369627, year = {2018}, author = {Dalla Marta, A and Eitzinger, J and Kersebaum, KC and Todorovic, M and Altobelli, F}, title = {Assessment and monitoring of crop water use and productivity in response to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of agricultural science}, volume = {156}, number = {5}, pages = {575-576}, doi = {10.1017/S002185961800076X}, pmid = {30369627}, issn = {0021-8596}, } @article {pmid30368853, year = {2018}, author = {Bostrom, A and Hayes, AL and Crosman, KM}, title = {Efficacy, Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13210}, pmid = {30368853}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {1430781//National Science Foundation/ ; 1463492//University of Washington/ ; //Carnegie Mellon University/ ; T32 HD007543//Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development/ ; //Shanahan Endowment Fellowship/ ; //Center for Studies in Demography & Ecology/ ; }, abstract = {A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self-efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self-efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self-efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self-efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.}, } @article {pmid30368676, year = {2018}, author = {Benmoussa, H and Ben Mimoun, M and Ghrab, M and Luedeling, E}, title = {Climate change threatens central Tunisian nut orchards.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1628-x}, pmid = {30368676}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Temperate deciduous trees can only be productive where winters are cold enough to meet their chilling needs. In the Mediterranean region, chill has traditionally been sufficient for many species, but this may change as temperatures increase. We explored the region's present and future suitability for temperate trees by quantifying chill for the Sfax region in central Tunisia, one of the warmest regions where temperate nuts are commercially grown. We assessed climatic risk by calculating historic chill (since 1973) and using a weather generator calibrated with local weather data (1973-2015) to produce 101 years of chill estimates (computed with the Dynamic Model) and 3 past and 72 future scenarios (for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, using two representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For almonds and pistachios, we compared available chill during the chilling period with the species' estimated chilling requirements, and we computed the date by which sufficient chill was expected to have accumulated. Our findings indicated severe chill losses for all future scenarios. For all species, the current chill period is no longer expected to be sufficient for meeting chilling requirements in the future. Chill needs may still be fulfilled later in the year, especially for low-chill almonds, but this would result in delayed phenology, with possible adverse effects on productivity. Temperate nut production is thus unlikely to remain viable at this site, highlighting an urgent need to identify locally appropriate adaptation options. This challenge is likely shared by other warm production regions of temperate fruits and nuts around the world.}, } @article {pmid30368152, year = {2018}, author = {Rakib, MA and Sasaki, J and Pal, S and Newaz, MA and Bodrud-Doza, M and Bhuiyan, MAH}, title = {An investigation of coastal vulnerability and internal consistency of local perceptions under climate change risk in the southwest part of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {419-428}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.054}, pmid = {30368152}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climatic threats force disruption on community lifestyles by impairing social factors, the fundamental components of ensuring social sustainability. This study investigates the situational factors affecting the consequences on coastal livelihoods, and social activities; it also considers the effectiveness of traditional knowledge in reducing possible risks. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were employed, including questionnaire survey for identifying the local perception of climatic impacts alongside the impacts on daily activities. Interviews, field observations, and multivariate analyses were performed to explain the vulnerability status in coastal communities. Results show that most livelihood sectors were severely affected by the long-term and repeated actions of climatic hazards, such as cyclones, associated with a number of unavoidable risks making people susceptible to damages in social wellbeing. In addition, saltwater intrusion damages drinking water supply and crop farming, which can cause diseases among coastal communities, but very few attempts have been made to provide alternative sources of drinking water at a household level. Moreover, principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) revealed significant interfaces between local perceptions and the socio-and agro-environmental factors changing the overall status of regional hazards. Thus, the situation exhibits coastal hazards, social vulnerability, and social crisis. Local people use their traditional knowledge to cope with various levels of crisis under vulnerable conditions, but sometimes doing so exceeds their capacity owing to the unwanted changes in climatic variables and knowledge gaps or uncertainties. Challenges on the basis of the problematic points should be noted, however, it would be more significant to achieve social sustainability under adverse climatic conditions.}, } @article {pmid30366320, year = {2018}, author = {Boonwichai, S and Shrestha, S and Babel, MS and Weesakul, S and Datta, A}, title = {Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on rainfed rice production in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {652}, number = {}, pages = {189-201}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.201}, pmid = {30366320}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates rice yield and evaluates potential adaptation measures on field management practices for rainfed rice production under climate change scenarios in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. The top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined to evaluate the future climate conditions in the Songkhram River Basin and identify adaptation strategies respectively. An ensemble of four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) bias-corrected using the Quantile Mapping technique was used to project the future climate under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The DSSAT crop simulation model was used to simulate rice yield and evaluate the impacts of climate change on rice yield, as well as the feasibility of four adaptation options, which were solicited from four hundred farmers through questionnaire surveys in the basin. The strategies include (i) change in planting date, (ii) change in fertiliser application date, (iii) change in fertiliser application dose, and (iv) supplying irrigation water. Based on the model results, future maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase by 2.8 and 3.2 °C respectively under RCP8.5 scenario for 2080s. Although annual rainfall may be unchanged, rainfall patterns will shift earlier in future. Evaluation of adaptation strategies suggest that supplying irrigation water under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively are the best strategies to increase rice yield under climate change scenarios. Change in fertiliser application date and change in planting date can increase the future rice yield by 12 and 8%, respectively under RCP4.5 scenario for 2080s. Adjusting the fertiliser application dose may however reduce future rice yield. Although supplying irrigation water can aid the production of rainfed rice, other concerns such as the source of water are involved. The feasibility of adaptation actions would depend largely on available resources and mindset of farmers. Further work is warranted in exploring a combination of adaptation strategies and management plans to combat the adverse impacts of climate change.}, } @article {pmid30364587, year = {2018}, author = {Rahut, DB and Ali, A}, title = {Impact of climate-change risk-coping strategies on livestock productivity and household welfare: empirical evidence from Pakistan.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {e00797}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00797}, pmid = {30364587}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Using the primary datasets collected from 700 livestock farmers from all four major provinces of Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit Baltistan, this paper analyzes the impact of climate-change risk coping strategies on household welfare. A Poisson regression model was used to estimate the determinants of the livestock ownership and multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of the measures taken to manage the climatic-risk challenge for livestock. A propensity score matching approach (PSM) was used to assess the impact of the adopted climate-risk management strategies on livestock farmers. Findings indicated that in Pakistan livestock farmers generally adopt four main types of strategies to cope with climate risk: livestock insurance, selling of livestock, allocation of more land area for fodder and migration. The results show that age, education, wealth, access to extension services, and membership in NGOs, influence the livestock farmers' choice of climate-risk-coping mechanisms. The livestock farmers who adopted risk-coping mechanisms generally fared better. Increasing the land area allocated to fodder seems to increase production of milk and butter, resulting in higher income and lower poverty levels. Those who bought insurance had more milk production and a lower poverty level, while those who sold livestock to cope with climate risk decreased production but increased household income and lowered poverty levels. Migration seems to have a negative impact on production and income. Impact assessments confirm that purchasing livestock insurance and increasing fodder areas are more effective compared to the selling of livestock and migration. Agricultural climate policy should focus on creating awareness as well as increasing access to extension services among livestock farmers on climate risk and risk-coping strategies to mitigate the impact on rural livelihoods.}, } @article {pmid30361350, year = {2018}, author = {Pennisi, E}, title = {Restoring lost grazers could help blunt climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6413}, pages = {388}, doi = {10.1126/science.362.6413.388}, pmid = {30361350}, issn = {1095-9203}, } @article {pmid30360282, year = {2019}, author = {Potapowicz, J and Szumińska, D and Szopińska, M and Polkowska, Ż}, title = {The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of anthropogenic pollution released from the permafrost: Part I. Case study of Antarctica.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1534-1548}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.168}, pmid = {30360282}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This article presents a review of information related to the influence of potential permafrost degradation on the environmental fate of chemical species which are released and stored, classified as potential influence in future Antarctic environment. Considering all data regarding climate change prediction, this topic may prove important issue for the future state of the Antarctic environment. A detailed survey on soil and permafrost data permitted the assumption that this medium may constitute a sink for organic and inorganic pollution (especially for persistent organic pollution, POPs, and heavy metals). The analysis of the environmental fate and potential consequences of the presence of pollutants for the existence of the Antarctic fauna leads to a conclusion that they may cause numerous negative effects (e.g. Endocrine disruptions, DNA damage, cancerogenicity). In the case of temperature increase and enhanced remobilisation processes, this effect may be even stronger, and may disturb natural balance in the environment. Therefore, regular research on the environmental fate of pollution is required, especially in terms of processes of remobilisation from the permafrost reserves.}, } @article {pmid30359427, year = {2018}, author = {Di Giusto, B and Lavallee, JP and Yu, TY}, title = {Towards an East Asian model of climate change awareness: A questionnaire study among university students in Taiwan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0206298}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0206298}, pmid = {30359427}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {East Asia emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other region, yet little is known about attitudes towards climate change in this region. A cross-sectional survey investigating climate change knowledge, concern and behavior change was administered to 1118 university students at nine universities across Taiwan in June 2016. Knowledge was assessed with a 15-item quiz while concern and behavioral change were self-reported on 5-point Likert scales. The relationship of these three variables with various socio-demographic variables was investigated through Kruskal-Wallis tests and ordinal logistic regressions. Knowledge was homogeneous by region but differed sharply by socioeconomic position. Concern appears high by international standards, with 65% reporting being "somewhat concerned" and 28% being "very concerned," while climate change denial was negligible. Students expressing greater concern were more likely to be from eastern and southern Taiwan, regions more vulnerable to extreme weather events. However, these high concern levels did not translate into action, as only 38% of respondents reported "some" and 11% reported "very much" behavioral change in response to climate change. Higher levels of behavioral change were reported by students expressing greater concern and students with lower levels of climate change knowledge. In contrast with studies of Western societies, our findings suggest an East Asian model in which the conflict between economic growth and the environment is playing out in different ways, such that the crucial need is for policy leadership and not more education.}, } @article {pmid30358002, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, L and Huang, JG and Ma, Q and Hänninen, H and Tremblay, F and Bergeron, Y}, title = {Long-term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14496}, pmid = {30358002}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Contrary to the generally advanced spring leaf unfolding under global warming, the effects of the climate warming on autumn leaf senescence are highly variable with advanced, delayed, and unchanged patterns being all reported. Using one million records of leaf phenology from four dominant temperate species in Europe, we investigated the temperature sensitivities of spring leaf unfolding and autumn leaf senescence (ST , advanced or delayed days per degree Celsius). The ST of spring phenology in all of the four examined species showed an increase and decrease during 1951-1980 and 1981-2013, respectively. The decrease of the ST during 1981-2013 appears to be caused by reduced accumulation of chilling units. As with spring phenology, the ST of leaf senescence of early successional and exotic species started to decline since 1980. In contrast, for late successional species, the ST of autumn senescence showed an increase for the entire study period from 1951 to 2013. The impacts of rising temperature associated with global warming on spring leaf unfolding was stronger than those on autumn leaf senescence. The timing of leaf senescence was positively correlated with the timing of leaf unfolding during 1951-1980. However, as climate warming continued, the differences in the responses between spring and autumn phenology gradually increased, so that the correlation was no more significant during 1981-2013. Our results further suggest that since 2000, due to the decreased temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding the length of the growing season has not increased any more. This finding needs to be addressed in vegetation models used for assessing the effects of climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30357847, year = {2018}, author = {Carvalho, LC and Amâncio, S}, title = {Cutting the Gordian Knot of abiotic stress in grapevine: from the test tube to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.12857}, pmid = {30357847}, issn = {1399-3054}, abstract = {In Mediterranean climate areas, the available scenarios for climate change suggest an increase in the frequency of heat waves and severe drought in summer. Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a traditional Mediterranean species and is the most valuable fruit crop in the world. Currently, viticulture must adjust to impending climate changes that are already pushing vine-growers towards the use of irrigation, with the concomitant losses in wine quality, and researchers to study tolerance to stress in existing genotypes. The viticulture and winemaking worlds are in demand to understand the physiological potential of the available genotypes to respond to climate changes. In this review we will focus on the cross-talk between common abiotic stresses that currently affect grapevine productivity and that are prone to affect it deeper in the future. We will discuss results obtained under three experimental stress conditions and that call for specific responses: (1) acclimatization of in vitro plantlets, (2) stress combinations in controlled conditions for research purposes, (3) extreme events in the field that, driven by climate changes, are pushing Mediterranean species to the limit. The different levels of tolerance to stress put in evidence by the plasticity of phenotypic and genotypic response mechanisms, will be addressed. This information is relevant to understand varietal adaptation to impending climate changes and to assist vine growers in choosing genotypes and viticulture practices. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30356932, year = {2018}, author = {Ashraf, U and Chaudhry, MN and Ahmad, SR and Ashraf, I and Arslan, M and Noor, H and Jabbar, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change on Capparis spinosa L. based on ecological niche modeling.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5792}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.5792}, pmid = {30356932}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Recent changes in climate are transforming the situation of life on Earth, including impacting the conservation status of many plant and animal species. This study aims to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on a medicinal plant that is known to be heat-tolerant, Capparis spinosa L. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate current and future potential distributions for the species, considering two emissions scenarios and five climate models for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The results in terms of areal coverage at different suitability levels in the future were closely similar to its present-day distribution; indeed, only minor differences existed in highly suitable area, with increases of only 0.2-0.3% in suitable area for 2050 and 2070 under representative concentration pathway 4.5. Given that climate-mediated range shifts in the species are expected to be minor, conservation attention to this species can focus on minimizing local effects of anthropogenic activity.}, } @article {pmid30356292, year = {2018}, author = {Barros, C and Thuiller, W and Münkemüller, T}, title = {Drought effects on the stability of forest-grassland ecotones under gradual climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0206138}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0206138}, pmid = {30356292}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Plant communities in forest-grassland ecotones of the European Alps are already suffering from gradual climate change and will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense drought periods in the future. Yet, how gradual climate change and extreme drought will affect the stability of these plant communities is largely unknown. Here, we investigated how drought modulates the effects of gradual climate change on the long-term structural stability of these ecotone communities using a multidimensional approach. Using a spatially explicit landscape vegetation model, we simulated three drought scenarios, on top of gradual changes of climate variables, and their impacts on the dynamics of 24 plant functional groups, distinguishing between forests and grasslands, as well as different land uses. We then used n-dimensional hypervolumes to define community states under the different drought scenarios, and compared them to initial conditions to assess changes in community structural stability. In general, added drought effects did not counteract the long-term consequences of gradual climate changes, although they resulted in quantitatively different effects. Importantly, drought and climate change had non-negligible consequences for taxonomic and functional structure that differed between communities and land-use regimes. For instance, forest taxonomic structure was more overall more stable than grassland's, despite the observed functional shifts towards more warm-adapted species compositions. Conversely, unmanaged grasslands were the least stable, suffering the loss of characteristic alpine species. Also, while frequent and severe drought regimes caused forests to become more variable in time, they had the opposite effect on grasslands. Our results agree with observations of drought- and climate-driven changes in mountain communities of the Alps, and we discuss their relevance for ecosystem management. Importantly, we demonstrate the utility of this multidimensional approach to study community stability for analysing cross-community and cross-disturbance responses to global change.}, } @article {pmid30355969, year = {2018}, author = {Zeuli, K and Nijhuis, A and Macfarlane, R and Ridsdale, T}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on the Food System in Toronto.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112344}, pmid = {30355969}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {NA//Toronto Public Health/ ; }, abstract = {As part of its Climate Change and Health Strategy, in 2017, Toronto Public Health engaged stakeholders from across the food system to complete a high-level vulnerability assessment of the impact of climate change on the food system in Toronto. Using the Ontario Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Guidelines, the City of Toronto's High-Level Risk Assessment Tool, and a strategic framework developed by the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, Toronto Public Health identified the most significant extreme weather event risks to food processing, distribution and access in Toronto. Risks associated with three extreme weather events that are the most likely to occur in Toronto due to climate change were analyzed: significant rain and flooding, an extended heat wave, and a major winter ice storm. The analysis finds that while extreme weather events could potentially disrupt Toronto's food supply, the current risk of an extended, widespread food supply disruption is relatively low. However, the findings highlight that a concerted effort across the food system, including electrical and fuel providers, is needed to address other key vulnerabilities that could impact food access, especially for vulnerable populations. Interruptions to electricity will have food access and food safety impacts, while interruptions to the transportation network and fuel will have food distribution and access impacts. Actions to mitigate these risks could include addressing food access vulnerabilities through ongoing city-wide strategies and integrating food access into the City's emergency response planning. The next steps will include engaging with multiple partners across the city to understand and strengthen the "last mile" of food distribution and develop community food resilience action plans for vulnerable neighbourhoods.}, } @article {pmid30355678, year = {2018}, author = {Taillardat, P and Friess, DA and Lupascu, M}, title = {Mangrove blue carbon strategies for climate change mitigation are most effective at the national scale.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0251}, pmid = {30355678}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Carbon fixed by vegetated coastal ecosystems (blue carbon) can mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions, though its effectiveness differs with the spatial scale of interest. A literature review compiling carbon sequestration rates within key ecosystems confirms that blue carbon ecosystems are the most efficient natural carbon sinks at the plot scale, though some overlooked biogeochemical processes may lead to overestimation. Moreover, the limited spatial extent of coastal habitats minimizes their potential at the global scale, only buffering 0.42% of the global fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2014. Still, blue carbon plays a role for countries with moderate fossil fuel emissions and extensive coastlines. In 2014, mangroves mitigated greater than 1% of national fossil fuel emissions for countries such as Bangladesh, Colombia and Nigeria. Considering that the Paris Agreement is based on nationally determined contributions, we propose that mangrove blue carbon may contribute to climate change mitigation at this scale in some instances alongside other blue carbon ecosystems.}, } @article {pmid30353483, year = {2018}, author = {Sharma, R and Hooyberghs, H and Lauwaet, D and De Ridder, K}, title = {Urban Heat Island and Future Climate Change-Implications for Delhi's Heat.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11524-018-0322-y}, pmid = {30353483}, issn = {1468-2869}, support = {308497//European Community's 7th Framework Programme/ ; 308299//European Community's 7th Framework Programme/ ; }, abstract = {UrbClim, the urban climate model, is used for short- and long-term projections of climate for Delhi. The projections are performed for RCP8.5 using an ensemble of 11 GCM model outputs. Various heat stress indices were employed to understand the role of urban heat island (UHI) in influencing the present and future urban climate of the city. UHI intensity based on 5% warmest nights (TNp95) was 4.1 °C and exhibits negligible change over time. However, the impact of UHI on other heat stress indices is very strong. Combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT) that influenced 58-70% of the reference time frame are expected to rise to 68-77% in near-future and to 91-97% in far-future time periods. For reference time period, urban areas experience 2.3 more number of heat wave days (NHWD) than rural areas per summer season. This difference increases to 7.1 in short-term and 13.8 in long-term projections. Similar to this trend, frequency of heat waves (FHW) for urban areas is also expected to increase from 0.8 each summer season in reference time frame to 2.1 and 5.1 in short- and long-term projections. The urban-rural difference for duration of heat waves (DHW) appears to increase from 1.7 days in past to 2.3 and 2.2 days in future, illustrating that DHW for cities will be higher than non-urban areas at least by 2 days. The intensity of heat wave (IHW) for urban land uses increases from 40 °C in reference time frame to 45 °C in short-term projection to 49 °C in far future. These values for non-urban land use were 33 °C during the baseline time period and are expected to increase to 42 °C and 46 °C in near- and far-future time frames. The results clearly indicate the contribution of UHI effects in intensifying the impacts of extreme heat and heat stress in the city.}, } @article {pmid30350264, year = {2018}, author = {Jaakkola, JJK and Juntunen, S and Näkkäläjärvi, K}, title = {The Holistic Effects of Climate Change on the Culture, Well-Being, and Health of the Saami, the Only Indigenous People in the European Union.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s40572-018-0211-2}, pmid = {30350264}, issn = {2196-5412}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: (1) To develop a framework for understanding the holistic effects of climate change on the Saami people; (2) to summarize the scientific evidence about the primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of climate change on Saami culture and Sápmi region; and (3) to identify gaps in the knowledge of the effects of climate change on health and well-being of the Saami.

RECENT FINDINGS: The Saami health is on average similar, or slightly better compared to the health of other populations in the same area. Warming climate has already influenced Saami reindeer culture. Mental health and suicide risk partly linked to changing physical and social environments are major concerns. The lifestyle, diet, and morbidity of the Saami are changing to resemble the majority populations posing threats for the health of the Saami and making them more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change is a threat for the cultural way of life of Saami. Possibilities for Saami to adapt to climate change are limited.}, } @article {pmid30349658, year = {2018}, author = {Musarandega, H and Chingombe, W and Pillay, R}, title = {Harnessing local traditional authorities as a potential strategy to combat the vagaries of climate change in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {651}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.651}, pmid = {30349658}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {While the devastating vagaries of climate change are ravaging communities the world over, especially in Africa, and Zimbabwe in particular, the role of traditional authorities is being overlooked. This paper argues for a relentless push towards the unimpeded involvement of local traditional authorities (LTAs) in the mobilisation of rural communities to adopt appropriate climate change adaptation practices in Zimbabwe. Given its complexity and uniqueness, external intervention through government and non-governmental agents alone can hardly foster climate change adaptation particularly at local levels within communities. Traditional leaders, who have for a long time been useful in the governance of people in various rural communities, can play a supportive role in climate change adaptation. Traditional leaders do not only serve as governance authorities but also know the traditional strategies of combating the negative effects of climate change. Despite the pressure from political interference and the advent of western technological advancement, a lot could still be done to buttress the authority and respect vested in chiefs, headsmen and village heads in the country. LTAs have the power to manage grassroots communities; hence they can be utilised as drivers in the use of traditional climate change adaptation strategies. The paper concludes that political interference is one challenge faced by abusing traditional leadership as a means to gain political mileage. The paper recommends for extended capacity building on the part of traditional leaders to improve their knowledge base. This will enable them to appreciate the integration of indigenous and modern climate change adaptation strategies. It further recommends the revitalisation of the traditional council (Dare raMambo) to deal with environmental offenses with the scope of assisting government efforts to ensure sound ecological practices within communities.}, } @article {pmid30348889, year = {2018}, author = {Kjeldahl, EM and Hendricks, VF}, title = {The sense of social influence: pluralistic ignorance in climate change: Social factors play key roles in human behavior. Individuals tend to underestimate how much others worry about climate change. This may inhibit them from taking collective climate action.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15252/embr.201847185}, pmid = {30348889}, issn = {1469-3178}, } @article {pmid30348873, year = {2018}, author = {Jarvie, S and Svenning, JC}, title = {Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0446}, pmid = {30348873}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, } @article {pmid30348869, year = {2018}, author = {Falcón, W and Hansen, DM}, title = {Island rewilding with giant tortoises in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0442}, pmid = {30348869}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Replacing recently extinct endemic giant tortoises with extant, functional analogues provide the perhaps best examples of island rewilding to date. Yet, an efficient future application of this conservation action is challenging in an era of climate change. We here present and discuss a conceptual framework that can serve as a roadmap for the study and application of tortoise rewilding in an uncertain future. We focus on three main ecological functions mediated by giant tortoises, namely herbivory, seed dispersal and nutrient cycling, and discuss how climate change is likely to impact these. We then propose and discuss mitigation strategies such as artificial constructed shade sites and water holes that can help drive and maintain the ecosystem functions provided by the tortoises on a landscape scale. The application of the framework and the mitigation strategies are illustrated with examples from both wild and rewilded populations of the Aldabra giant tortoise, Aldabrachelys gigantea, in the Western Indian Ocean.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, } @article {pmid30348867, year = {2018}, author = {Cromsigt, JPGM and Te Beest, M and Kerley, GIH and Landman, M and le Roux, E and Smith, FA}, title = {Trophic rewilding as a climate change mitigation strategy?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0440}, pmid = {30348867}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {The loss of megafauna at the terminal Pleistocene has been linked to a wide range of Earth-system-level changes, such as altered greenhouse gas budgets, fire regimes and biome-level vegetation changes. Given these influences and feedbacks, might part of the solution for mitigating anthropogenic climate change lie in the restoration of extant megafauna to ecosystems? Here, we explore the potential role of trophic rewilding on Earth's climate system. We first provide a novel synthesis of the various ways that megafauna interact with the major drivers of anthropogenic climate change, including greenhouse gas storage and emission, aerosols and albedo. We then explore the role of rewilding as a mitigation tool at two scales: (i) current and near-future opportunities for national or regional climate change mitigation portfolios, and (ii) more radical opportunities at the global scale. Finally, we identify major knowledge gaps that complicate the complete characterization of rewilding as a climate change mitigation strategy. Our perspective is urgent since we are losing the Earth's last remaining megafauna, and with it a potential option to address climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, } @article {pmid30348756, year = {2018}, author = {Hopping, KA and Chignell, SM and Lambin, EF}, title = {The demise of caterpillar fungus in the Himalayan region due to climate change and overharvesting.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811591115}, pmid = {30348756}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Demand for traditional medicine ingredients is causing species declines globally. Due to this trade, Himalayan caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) has become one of the world's most valuable biological commodities, providing a crucial source of income for hundreds of thousands of collectors. However, the resulting harvesting boom has generated widespread concern over the sustainability of its collection. We investigate whether caterpillar fungus production is decreasing-and if so, why-across its entire range. To overcome the limitations of sparse quantitative data, we use a multiple evidence base approach that makes use of complementarities between local knowledge and ecological modeling. We find that, according to collectors across four countries, caterpillar fungus production has decreased due to habitat degradation, climate change, and especially overexploitation. Our statistical models corroborate that climate change is contributing to this decline. They indicate that caterpillar fungus is more productive under colder conditions, growing in close proximity to areas likely to have permafrost. With significant warming already underway throughout much of its range, we conclude that caterpillar fungus populations have been negatively affected by a combination of overexploitation and climate change. Our results underscore that harvesting is not the sole threat to economically valuable species, and that a collapse of the caterpillar fungus system under ongoing warming and high collection pressure would have serious implications throughout the Himalayan region.}, } @article {pmid30348655, year = {2018}, author = {Law, A and Saunders, P and Middleton, J and McCoy, D}, title = {Global warming must stay below 1.5°C.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k4410}, pmid = {30348655}, issn = {1756-1833}, } @article {pmid30348474, year = {2018}, author = {Vafeiadou, AM and Bretaña, BLP and Van Colen, C and Dos Santos, GAP and Moens, T}, title = {Global warming-induced temperature effects to intertidal tropical and temperate meiobenthic communities.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.10.005}, pmid = {30348474}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Global climate change and the related temperature rise strongly impact marine life and have long been in the center of scientific attention. This experimental work investigates thermal-stress effects on intertidal meiofauna from tropical and temperate coasts, focusing on community responses. Natural communities were exposed for a month to ambient, elevated constant temperatures and diurnal fluctuating temperature regimes with elevated peak maxima, to mimic realistic future climate conditions. Abundance, biodiversity, community composition and functional diversity were assessed. Differential responses between a tropical and a temperate community were revealed. The tropical nematode assemblage was more tolerant to the elevated constant than to the fluctuating temperature regime, whereas the temperate assemblage was equally affected by both. Shifts in dominance of temperature-tolerant species in elevated constant and fluctuating temperature treatments (due to temperature variations) were observed and explained by a combination of differential tolerances and shifts in species interactions. Overall, global warming-induced temperature was found to alter species dynamics within meiobenthic communities, which may have further implications for the ecosystem.}, } @article {pmid30347771, year = {2018}, author = {Mpandeli, S and Naidoo, D and Mabhaudhi, T and Nhemachena, C and Nhamo, L and Liphadzi, S and Hlahla, S and Modi, AT}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation through the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Southern Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15102306}, pmid = {30347771}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change is a complex and cross-cutting problem that needs an integrated and transformative systems approach to respond to the challenge. Current sectoral approaches to climate change adaptation initiatives often create imbalances and retard sustainable development. Regional and international literature on climate change adaptation opportunities and challenges applicable to southern Africa from a water-energy-food (WEF) nexus perspective was reviewed. Specifically, this review highlights climate change impacts on water, energy, and food resources in southern Africa, while exploring mitigation and adaptation opportunities. The review further recommends strategies to develop cross-sectoral sustainable measures aimed at building resilient communities. Regional WEF nexus related institutions and legal frameworks were also reviewed to relate the WEF nexus to policy. Southern Africa is witnessing an increased frequency and intensity in climate change-associated extreme weather events, causing water, food, and energy insecurity. A projected reduction of 20% in annual rainfall by 2080 in southern Africa will only increase the regional socio-economic challenges. This is exacerbating regional resource scarcities and vulnerabilities. It will also have direct and indirect impacts on nutrition, human well-being, and health. Reduced agricultural production, lack of access to clean water, sanitation, and clean, sustainable energy are the major areas of concern. The region is already experiencing an upsurge of vector borne diseases (malaria and dengue fever), and water and food-borne diseases (cholera and diarrhoea). What is clear is that climate change impacts are cross-sectoral and multidimensional, and therefore require cross-sectoral mitigation and adaptation approaches. In this regard, a well-coordinated and integrated WEF nexus approach offers opportunities to build resilient systems, harmonise interventions, and mitigate trade-offs and hence improve sustainability. This would be achieved through greater resource mobilisation and coordination, policy convergence across sectors, and targeting nexus points in the landscape. The WEF nexus approach has potential to increase the resilience of marginalised communities in southern Africa by contributing towards attaining the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 13).}, } @article {pmid30346952, year = {2018}, author = {Lord, JS and Hargrove, JW and Torr, SJ and Vale, GA}, title = {Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {e1002675}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002675}, pmid = {30346952}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains scant, and predictions rely largely on extrapolation of statistical correlations. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model to test whether recent increases in temperature in the Mana Pools National Park of the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe could account for the simultaneous decline of tsetse flies, the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model we developed incorporates the effects of temperature on mortality, larviposition, and emergence rates and is fitted to a 27-year time series of tsetse caught from cattle. These catches declined from an average of c. 50 flies per animal per afternoon in 1990 to c. 0.1 in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by c. 0.9°C and temperatures in the hottest month of November by c. 2°C. Although our model provided a good fit to the data, it cannot predict whether or when extinction will occur.

CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests that the increase in temperature may explain the observed collapse in tsetse abundance and provides a first step in linking temperature to trypanosomiasis risk. If the effect at Mana Pools extends across the whole of the Zambezi Valley, then transmission of trypanosomes is likely to have been greatly reduced in this warm low-lying region. Conversely, rising temperatures may have made some higher, cooler, parts of Zimbabwe more suitable for tsetse and led to the emergence of new disease foci.}, } @article {pmid30345359, year = {2018}, author = {Zou, CZ and Goldberg, MD and Hao, X}, title = {New generation of U.S. satellite microwave sounder achieves high radiometric stability performance for reliable climate change detection.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {eaau0049}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aau0049}, pmid = {30345359}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Observations from the satellite microwave sounders play a vital role in measuring the long-term temperature trends for climate change monitoring. Changes in diurnal sampling over time and calibration drift have been the main sources of uncertainties in the satellite-measured temperature trends. We examine observations from the first of a series of U.S. new generation of microwave sounder, the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which has been flying onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/NASA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) environmental satellite since late 2011. The SNPP satellite has a stable afternoon orbit that has close to the same local observation time as NASA's Aqua satellite that has been carrying the heritage microwave sounder, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), from 2002 until the present. The similar overpass timing naturally removes most of their diurnal differences. In addition, direct comparison of temperature anomalies between the two instruments shows little or no relative calibration drift for most channels. Our results suggest that both SNPP/ATMS and Aqua/AMSU-A instruments have achieved absolute stability in the measured atmospheric temperatures within 0.04 K per decade. This uncertainty is small enough to allow reliable detection of the temperature climate trends and help to resolve debate on relevant issues. We also analyze AMSU-A observations onboard the European MetOp-A satellite that has a stable morning orbit 8 hours apart from the SNPP overpass time. Their comparison reveals large asymmetric trends between day and night in the lower- and mid-tropospheric temperatures over land. This information could help to improve climate data records for temperature trend detection with improved accuracy. The SNPP satellite will be followed by four NOAA operational Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, providing accurate and stable measurement for decades to come. The primary mission of JPSS is for weather forecasting. Now, with the added feature of stable orbits, JPSS observations can also be used to monitor changes in climate with much lower uncertainty than the previous generation of NOAA operational satellites.}, } @article {pmid30345319, year = {2018}, author = {Lefohn, AS and Malley, CS and Smith, L and Wells, B and Hazucha, M and Simon, H and Naik, V and Mills, G and Schultz, MG and Paoletti, E and De Marco, A and Xu, X and Zhang, L and Wang, T and Neufeld, HS and Musselman, RC and Tarasick, D and Brauer, M and Feng, Z and Tang, H and Kobayashi, K and Sicard, P and Solberg, S and Gerosa, G}, title = {Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research.}, journal = {Elementa (Washington, D.C.)}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1525/elementa.279}, pmid = {30345319}, issn = {2325-1026}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.}, } @article {pmid30344117, year = {2018}, author = {Mao, Y and Economo, EP and Satoh, N}, title = {The Roles of Introgression and Climate Change in the Rise to Dominance of Acropora Corals.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2018.08.061}, pmid = {30344117}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Reef-building corals provide the structural basis for one of Earth's most spectacular and diverse-but increasingly threatened-ecosystems. Modern Indo-Pacific reefs are dominated by species of the staghorn coral genus Acropora, but the evolutionary and ecological factors associated with their diversification and rise to dominance are unclear. Recent work on evolutionary radiations has demonstrated the importance of introgression and ecological opportunity in promoting diversification and ecological success. Here, we analyze the genomes of five staghorn coral species to examine the roles of introgression and ecological opportunity in the rise to dominance of Acropora. We found evidence for a history marked by a major introgression event as well as recurrent gene flow across species. In addition, we found that genes with topologies mismatching the species tree are evolving faster, which is suggestive of a role for introgression in spreading adaptive genetic variation. Demographic analysis showed that Acropora lineages profited from climate-driven mass extinctions in the Plio-Pleistocene, indicating that Acropora exploited ecological opportunity opened by a new climatic regime favoring species that could cope with rapid sea-level changes. Collectively, the genomes of reef-building corals have recorded an evolutionary history shaped by introgression and climate change, suggesting that Acropora-among most vulnerable corals to stressors-may be critical for understanding how reefs track the impending rapid sea-level changes of the Anthropocene.}, } @article {pmid30342323, year = {2018}, author = {Liao, W and Yang, L and Zhong, S and Hess, JJ and Wang, Q and Bao, J and Huang, C}, title = {Preparing the next generation of health professionals to tackle climate change: Are China's medical students ready?.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {168}, number = {}, pages = {270-277}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.10.006}, pmid = {30342323}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Medical students will lead the health sector responses and adaptation efforts in the near future, yet little is known in China about their knowledge, perceptions and preparedness to meet these challenges.

METHODS: A nationwide study was conducted at five medical universities across different regions of China using a two-stage stratified cluster sampling design. A self-administered questionnaire was applied to collect the information including perception, preparedness and educational needs in response to climate change. The data were first analyzed descriptively, then chi-square tests and kruskal wallis tests were applied to determined differences among subgroups, and logistic regression analysis were deployed to detect the socio-demographic factors influencing student's perception.

RESULTS: A total of 1436 medical students were approached and 1387 participated in the study (96.6% response rate). Most students were aware of the health impacts because of climate change, with over 90% perceived air quality-related and heat-related illness, while only a small part identified undernutrition and mental health. Approximately 90% embraced their role in tackling climate change, but 50% reported themselves and the health sectors were not adequately prepared. Compared to clinical students, preventive medicine students were more likely to perceive their responsibility to address climate change (OR:1.36, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.78). Also, 80% students admitted insufficient information and knowledge on climate change and health. Most students agreed that climate change and its health impacts should be included into their current curriculum.

CONCLUSIONS: Medical students in China were aware of climate change and felt responsible, but were not ready to make responses to its health impacts. Educational efforts should reinforce eco-medical literacy development and capacity building in the era of climate change.}, } @article {pmid30341722, year = {2018}, author = {Abid, M and Scheffran, J and Schneider, UA and Elahi, E}, title = {Farmer Perceptions of Climate Change, Observed Trends and Adaptation of Agriculture in Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1113-7}, pmid = {30341722}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Farmers' willingness and ability to adapt agricultural systems depend on their knowledge about changes in climate and perceived risks of extreme events. Using cross-sectional data of 450 farmers collected from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, this study investigates farmer perceptions of climate change and their agreement with observed climatic trends. In addition, this study explores the correlation between different adaptation stages (perceptions, intentions, and adaptation) and their key drivers using a Multivariate Probit Model. This study also explores the adaptation measures adopted by farmers. The results of the study show that the perceptions of increasing mean temperature match well with locally recorded data. However, a discrepancy is found in some cases between farmer perceptions of rainfall changes and local climate records. Moreover, education, experience, land tenure, land holdings, extension, cooperation, access to weather forecasting, and marketing information are the factors influencing the three adaptation stages. A strong association is found among the three adaptation stages. Particularly, the study confirms the hypothesis that accurate perceptions lead to stronger adaptation intentions compared to underestimated or no perceptions. Further, farmers prefer basic adaptation measures including changing crop varieties, input use and planting dates over advanced measures, such as planting shade trees, soil conservation, and crop diversification. The study recommends providing farmers, especially small landholders and tenants, easy access to information, institutional services and training on the use of advanced measures to reduce negative impacts of climate change at the farm level.}, } @article {pmid30337544, year = {2018}, author = {Sirois-Delisle, C and Kerr, JT}, title = {Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14464}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-32665-y}, pmid = {30337544}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change has shaped bee distributions over the past century. Here, we conducted the first species-specific assessment of future climate change impacts on North American bumblebee distributions, using the most recent global change scenarios developed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We assessed potential shifts in bumblebee species distributions with models generated using Maxent. We tested different assumptions about bumblebee species' dispersal capacities, drawing on observed patterns of range shifts to date, dispersal rates observed for bumblebee queens, and, lastly, assuming unlimited dispersal. Models show significant contractions of current ranges even under scenarios in which dispersal rates were high. Results suggest that dispersal rates may not suffice for bumblebees to track climate change as rapidly as required under any IPCC scenario for future climate change. Areas where species losses are projected overlap for many species and climate scenarios, and are concentrated in eastern parts of the continent. Models also show overlap for range expansions across many species, suggesting the presence of "hotspots" where management activities could benefit many species, across all climate scenarios. Broad-scale strategies are likely to be necessary to improve bumblebee conservation prospects under climate change.}, } @article {pmid30334034, year = {2018}, author = {Piacentini, RD and Della Ceca, LS and Ipiña, A}, title = {Climate change and its relationship with non-melanoma skin cancers.}, journal = {Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/c7pp00405b}, pmid = {30334034}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting both the environment and human behaviour. One significant impact is related to health, as detailed in the IPCC 2014 report. In the present work, and as a contribution to this commemorative special issue to Prof. Dr Jan van der Leun, we present the results of the squamous (SCC) and basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence change in relation to the ambient temperature increase. This increase is produced by global warming, mainly induced by anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. We have broadened a previous study conducted by van der Leun et al. (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 730-733), by analysing the effective carcinogenicity of UV dose, for the period 2000-2200 and four climate change scenarios (called RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The corresponding percentage increases of the incidence of SCC for 2100 are 5.8, 10.4, 13.8 and 21.4%, and for 2200 they are 4.3, 12.1, 19.0 and 40.5%. In a similar way, the percentage increases of the incidence of BCC for 2100 are 2.8, 4.9, 6.5 and 9.9% and for 2200 they are 2.0, 5.8, 8.9 and 18.2%. We report the SCC and BCC percentage effective incidence results as a function of time, for the whole 21st century and we extended the analysis to the 22nd century, since people possibly affected (like the Z and T generations, born at the beginning of this century) will have a life expectancy extending up to the final decades of the present century and even to the first ones of the next century.}, } @article {pmid30333846, year = {2018}, author = {Holopainen, JK and Virjamo, V and Ghimire, RP and Blande, JD and Julkunen-Tiitto, R and Kivimäenpää, M}, title = {Climate Change Effects on Secondary Compounds of Forest Trees in the Northern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1445}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01445}, pmid = {30333846}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Plant secondary compounds (PSCs), also called secondary metabolites, have high chemical and structural diversity and appear as non-volatile or volatile compounds. These compounds may have evolved to have specific physiological and ecological functions in the adaptation of plants to their growth environment. PSCs are produced by several metabolic pathways and many PSCs are specific for a few plant genera or families. In forest ecosystems, full-grown trees constitute the majority of plant biomass and are thus capable of producing significant amounts of PSCs. We summarize older literature and review recent progress in understanding the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on PSC production of forest trees and PSC behavior in forest ecosystems. The roles of different PSCs under stress and their important role in protecting plants against abiotic and biotic factors are also discussed. There was strong evidence that major climate change factors, CO2 and warming, have contradictory effects on the main PSC groups. CO2 increases phenolic compounds in foliage, but limits terpenoids in foliage and emissions. Warming decreases phenolic compounds in foliage but increases terpenoids in foliage and emissions. Other abiotic stresses have more variable effects. PSCs may help trees to adapt to a changing climate and to pressure from current and invasive pests and pathogens. Indirect adaptation comes via the effects of PSCs on soil chemistry and nutrient cycling, the formation of cloud condensation nuclei from tree volatiles and by CO2 sequestration into PSCs in the wood of living and dead forest trees.}, } @article {pmid30332816, year = {2018}, author = {Gong, B and Weng, B and Yan, D and Qin, T and Wang, H and Bi, W}, title = {Variation of Hydrothermal Conditions under Climate Change in Naqu Prefecture, Tibet Plateau, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15102271}, pmid = {30332816}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {91547209//Chinese National Natural Science Foundation/ ; 41571037//Chinese National Natural Science Foundation/ ; 2016YFA0601503//National Key Research and Development Project/ ; }, abstract = {Analysis of the suitability of hydrothermal conditions for vegetation growth would benefit the ecological barrier construction, water resources protection and climate change adaptation. The suitability of hydrothermal conditions in Naqu Prefecture was studied based on the spatial displacement of 500 mm precipitation and 2000 °C accumulated temperature contours. Results showed that the 500 mm precipitation contour had a shifting trend toward the southwest, with a 3.3-year and 7.1-year period, respectively, in the longitudinal and latitudinal direction, and the longitude changed suddenly around 1996. The 2000 °C accumulated temperature contour had a shifting trend toward the northwest, with a 1.8-year period and a 7-year sub-period in the longitudinal direction; the longitude had a catastrophe point between 1966 and 1967, while the latitude had a catastrophe point between 2005 and 2006. When located in the same vegetation zone, the annual precipitation in Naqu Prefecture was higher than the national average, while the accumulated temperature was lower than the national average, indicating that areas with suitable hydrothermal conditions suitable for vegetation growth showed a northwestward shift tendency. This research would help to support some recommendations for plants' ecological system protection in alpine areas, and also provide guidelines for climate change adaptation.}, } @article {pmid30332777, year = {2018}, author = {Butler, CD}, title = {Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989⁻2013).}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15102266}, pmid = {30332777}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Background: Anthropogenic global warming, interacting with social and other environmental determinants, constitutes a profound health risk. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review for 1989⁻2013 (inclusive), the first 25 years in which this topic appeared in scientific journals. It explores the extent to which articles have identified potentially catastrophic, civilization-endangering health risks associated with climate change. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar were primarily used to identify articles which were then ranked on a three-point scale. Each score reflected the extent to which papers discussed global systemic risk. Citations were also analyzed. Results: Of 2143 analyzed papers 1546 (72%) were scored as one. Their citations (165,133) were 82% of the total. The proportion of annual papers scored as three was initially high, as were their citations but declined to almost zero by 1996, before rising slightly from 2006. Conclusions: The enormous expansion of the literature appropriately reflects increased understanding of the importance of climate change to global health. However, recognition of the most severe, existential, health risks from climate change was generally low. Most papers instead focused on infectious diseases, direct heat effects and other disciplinary-bounded phenomena and consequences, even though scientific advances have long called for more inter-disciplinary collaboration.}, } @article {pmid30332438, year = {2018}, author = {Morgounov, A and Sonder, K and Abugalieva, A and Bhadauria, V and Cuthbert, RD and Shamanin, V and Zelenskiy, Y and DePauw, RM}, title = {Effect of climate change on spring wheat yields in North America and Eurasia in 1981-2015 and implications for breeding.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0204932}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0204932}, pmid = {30332438}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Wheat yield dynamic in Canada, USA, Russia and Kazakhstan from 1981 till 2015 was related to air temperature and precipitation during wheat season to evaluate the effects of climate change. The study used yield data from the provinces, states and regions and average yield from 19 spring wheat breeding/research sites. Both at production and research sites grain yield in Eurasia was two times lower compared to North America. The yearly variations in grain yield in North America and Eurasia did not correlate suggesting that higher yield in one region was normally associated with lower yield in another region. Minimum and maximum air temperature during the wheat growing season (April-August) had tendency to increase. While precipitation in April-August increased in North American sites from 289 mm in 1981-1990 to 338 mm in 2006-2015 it remained constant and low at Eurasian sites (230 and 238 mm, respectively). High temperature in June and July negatively affected grain yield in most of the sites at both continents. Climatic changes resulted in substantial changes in the dates of planting and harvesting normally leading to extension of growing season. Longer planting-harvesting period was positively associated with the grain yield for most of the locations. The climatic changes since 1981 and spring wheat responses suggest several implications for breeding. Gradual warming extends the wheat growing season and new varieties need to match this to utilize their potential. Higher rainfall during the wheat season, especially in North America, will require varieties with higher yield potential responding to moisture availability. June is a critical month for spring wheat in both regions due to the significant negative correlation of grain yield with maximum temperature and positive correlation with precipitation. Breeding for adaptation to higher temperatures during this period is an important strategy to increase yield.}, } @article {pmid30327524, year = {2018}, author = {Warren, M}, title = {Climate change is about to make your beer more expensive.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7727}, pages = {319-320}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07015-7}, pmid = {30327524}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30325951, year = {2018}, author = {Zavaleta, C and Berrang-Ford, L and Ford, J and Llanos-Cuentas, A and Cárcamo, C and Ross, NA and Lancha, G and Sherman, M and Harper, SL and , }, title = {Multiple non-climatic drivers of food insecurity reinforce climate change maladaptation trajectories among Peruvian Indigenous Shawi in the Amazon.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205714}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0205714}, pmid = {30325951}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions.

CONCLUSION: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies.}, } @article {pmid30325145, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, XQ and Li, GQ and DU, S}, title = {Predicting the influence of future climate change on the suitable distribution areas of Elaeagnus angustifolia.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {3213-3220}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201810.018}, pmid = {30325145}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants worldwide. Understanding the influence of climate change on the suitable areas of afforestation tree species in China and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of afforestation. Elaeagnus angustifolia is a good species for ecological restoration of degraded lands and control of desertification. Using MaxEnt and GIS, we predicted the changes of climatically suitable areas of this species under future climate scenarios, based on 182 records from herbaria and published literatures, and 13 climatic factors from BIOCLIM, Holdridge life zone and Kira index. The results showed that the four climate scenarios in 2070s had different effects on the climatically suitable areas of this species. The suitable areas would shrink in the lowest greenhouse gas emission (RCP 2.6) scenario. The shrinking areas were mainly located in the edge of the currently suitable areas in the northwest. The suitable areas would expand in the lower (RCP 4.5), the higher (RCP 6.0) and the highest (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The expanding areas were mainly located in the northwestern arid regions of warm temperate zone, and northeastern sub-humid regions of middle temperate zone. There were obvious expansions in the northern arid and semi-arid regions of middle temperate zone, and southern humid regions of north-subtropical zone under RCP 8.5 scenario. The geographical centroids of future suitable ranges would move with a speed of 6-19 km·(10 a)-1. The altitudinal centroids were predicted to move to lower regions with a speed of 3-20 m·(10 a)-1. The stably suitable areas accounted for 83%-98% of the current distribution ranges of this species, which were generally stable under future climate change scenarios.}, } @article {pmid30322040, year = {2018}, author = {Levison, MM and Butler, AJ and Rebellato, S and Armstrong, B and Whelan, M and Gardner, C}, title = {Development of a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Using a Public Health Lens to Determine Local Health Vulnerabilities: An Ontario Health Unit Experience.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15102237}, pmid = {30322040}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {n/a//Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-term Care/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is negatively impacting the health of Canadians and is accordingly expected to have a significant impact on public health agencies and their response to these health impacts throughout the twenty-first century. While national and international research and assessments have explored the potential human health impacts of climate change, few assessments have explored the implications of climate change from a local public health perspective. An applied research approach to expand local knowledge and action of health vulnerabilities through a climate change action plan and vulnerability assessment was utilized by a local public health agency. Adoption and adaptation of the approach used may be valuable for public health organizations to assist their communities. Through completing a vulnerability assessment, an evidentiary base was generated for public health to inform adaptation actions to reduce negative health impacts and increase resiliency. Challenges in completing vulnerability assessments at the local level include the framing and scoping of health impacts and associated indicators, as well as access to internal expertise surrounding the analysis of data. While access to quantitative data may be limiting at the local level, qualitative data can enhance knowledge of local impacts, while also supporting the creation of key partnerships with community stakeholders which can ensure climate action continues beyond the scope of the vulnerability assessment.}, } @article {pmid30321724, year = {2018}, author = {Aubin, D and Riche, C and Vande Water, V and La Jeunesse, I}, title = {The adaptive capacity of local water basin authorities to climate change: The Thau lagoon basin in France.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2013-2023}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.078}, pmid = {30321724}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change exacerbates climate variability, and makes water governance more complex. The French local water management plans (SAGE) developed an integrated approach that relies on a balance between bottom-up and top-down governance. The aim of this article is to question the actual role of the local basin authorities and ask whether they are central in water governance. The Social Network Analysis of the Thau basin shows that the key actors of the SAGE, namely the Rhone-Mediterranean-Corsica Water Agency, the local water agency and the local water commission, are the most powerful actors in the management of the river basin and play a crucial brokerage role in climate change adaptation. Integrated water resource management shifted power from territorial and central authorities to functional and local managers.}, } @article {pmid30318097, year = {2018}, author = {Balasubramanian, M}, title = {Climate change, famine, and low-income communities challenge Sustainable Development Goals.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {10}, pages = {e421-e422}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30212-2}, pmid = {30318097}, issn = {2542-5196}, } @article {pmid30317170, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, L and Liao, FH and Lohse, KA and Larson, DM and Fragkias, M and Lybecker, DL and Baxter, CV}, title = {Land conservation can mitigate freshwater ecosystem services degradation due to climate change in a semiarid catchment: The case of the Portneuf River catchment, Idaho, USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1796-1809}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.260}, pmid = {30317170}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There is increasing evidence of environmental change impacts on freshwater ecosystem services especially through land use and climate change. However, little is known about how land conservation could help mitigate adverse water-sustainability impacts. In this paper, we utilized the InVEST tool and the Residual Trends method to assess the joint effects and relative contributions of climate change and land conservation on freshwater ecosystem services in the Portneuf River catchment in Idaho, USA. We developed five hypothesized scenarios regarding gain and loss in the enrollment of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest agricultural land-retirement program in the U.S., plus riparian buffer and assessed their interactions with climate change. Results suggest that the realized water yield in the Portneuf River catchment would possibly be 56% less due to climate change and 24% less due to the decline of CRP enrollment. On the contrary, if CRP enrollment is promoted by ~30% and riparian buffer protection is implemented, the water supply reduction in the year 2050 could be changed from 56% to 26%, the total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) export would be reduced by 10% and 11%, and the total suspended sediment (TSS) reduced by 17%. This study suggests that increasing implementation of the CRP would likely preserve key freshwater ecosystem services and assist proactive mitigation, especially for semiarid regions vulnerable to changing climate conditions.}, } @article {pmid30316094, year = {2018}, author = {Kosai, S and Yamasue, E}, title = {Global warming potential and total material requirement in metal production: Identification of changes in environmental impact through metal substitution.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1764-1775}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.085}, pmid = {30316094}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In view of the increasing demand for metal use, it is of significant importance to evaluate the environmental impact of metal production. The global warming potential (GWP) in the process of metal production has often been focused upon as a major indicator for evaluating the burden on the environment. Moreover, the environmental impact and mineral exploitation arising from metal ore mining activities, which generate unavoidable mine wastes and have an impact on the ecological biodiversity, cannot be ignored. The major factors for determining the intensity of resource exploitation being the ore grades and strip ratio, the existing indicators for land use employed in the life cycle assessment (LCA) may not fully cover the criteria of the impact of metal mining on the environmental system. Therefore, this study employs the method of total material requirement (TMR) assessment, involving not only the direct and indirect material inputs but also the hidden flows, which are particularly associated with mine wastes. Firstly, the methodology of computing the TMR in the process of metal production is developed. Next, the relation between the GWP and TMR for 58 metals is assessed and finally, the environmental impact through metal substitutes is evaluated from the perspectives of the GWP and TMR. This analysis could identify some of the aspects overlooked in the previous environmental criteria that were concentrating on greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. The developed algorithm may be useful in identifying appropriate metal substitutes, considering the environmental impact.}, } @article {pmid30315649, year = {2018}, author = {Rugiu, L and Manninen, I and Rothäusler, E and Jormalainen, V}, title = {Tolerance to climate change of the clonally reproducing endemic Baltic seaweed, Fucus radicans: is phenotypic plasticity enough?.}, journal = {Journal of phycology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jpy.12796}, pmid = {30315649}, issn = {1529-8817}, abstract = {To predict the effects of climate change, we first need information on both the current tolerance ranges of species and their future adaptive potential. Adaptive responses may originate either in genetic variation or in phenotypic plasticity, but the relative importance of these factors is poorly understood. Here, we tested the tolerance of Fucus radicans to the combination of hyposalinity and warming projected by climate models for 2070-2099. We measured the growth and survival responses of thalli in both current and future conditions, focusing on variations in tolerance among and within different clonal lineages. Survival was 32% lower in future than in current conditions, but the weight and length of the thalli who survived was respectively 267% and 178% higher when exposed to future conditions. The relatively high tolerance to the future conditions suggests that F. radicans is likely to persist in its current distributional range, which is limited to the Gulf of Bothia and Estonian coast in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, this species may be able to expand its distribution southwards and replace its congener F. vesiculosus, which, in previous studies, has not tolerated the future conditions as well. In addition, we discovered variation in tolerance to future conditions within one of the clonal lineages, which have been hitherto presumed to lack adaptive variation. The discovery of intra-clonal phenotypic plasticity means that this alga has the potential for adaptive responses to climate change, which may be the key to the future persistence of F. radicans in the Baltic Sea. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30312341, year = {2018}, author = {Skelsey, P and Humphris, SN and Campbell, EJ and Toth, IK}, title = {Threat of establishment of non-indigenous potato blackleg and tuber soft rot pathogens in Great Britain under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205711}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0205711}, pmid = {30312341}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Potato blackleg and soft rot caused by Pectobacterium and Dickeya species are among the most significant bacterial diseases affecting potato production globally. In this study we estimate the impact of future temperatures on establishment of non-indigenous but confirmed Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Great Britain (GB). The calculations are based on probabilistic climate change data and a model fitted to disease severity data from a controlled environment tuber assay with the dominant potato blackleg and soft rot-causing species in GB (P. atrosepticum), and three of the main causative agents in Europe (P. carotovorum subsp. brasiliense, P. parmentieri, Dickeya solani). Our aim was to investigate if the European strains could become stronger competitors in the GB potato ecosystem as the climate warms, on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers at different temperatures. Principally, we found that the tissue macerating capacity of all four pathogens will increase in GB under all emissions scenarios. The predominant Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Europe are able to cause disease in tubers under field conditions currently seen in GB but are not expected to become widely established in the future, at least on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers relative to P. atrosepticum under GB conditions. Our key take-home messages are that the GB potato industry is well positioned to continue to thrive via current best management practices and continued reinforcement of existing legislation.}, } @article {pmid30308889, year = {2019}, author = {Vrzel, J and Ludwig, R and Gampe, D and Ogrinc, N}, title = {Hydrological system behaviour of an alluvial aquifer under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {1179-1188}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.396}, pmid = {30308889}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In this paper, we present an assessment of the sensitivity of groundwater-surface water interactions to climate change in an alluvial aquifer, located in the Ljubljansko polje, Slovenia. The investigation is motivated by a recent assessment of climate change pressures on the water balance in the Sava River Basin (Gampe et al., 2016). The assessment was performed using a comprehensive hydrological modelling approach, which is based on the direct/indirect communication between FEFLOW and WaSiM/MIKE 11. This modelling framework provides a precise simulation of the critical processes in the study domain, which are the main drivers influencing the interactions between precipitation, river water and groundwater under different future climate scenarios. Climate projections were based on the results of the three regional climate models SMHI-RCA4, KNMI-RACMO22E and CLMcom-CCLM4. The results show that there will be higher levels of local precipitation during 2036-2065, the projected river discharge will be larger in the future compared to 2000-2014, and it is unlikely that the Ljubljansko polje will suffer from water scarcity. In addition, amongst the various sections of the Sava River the section between Črnuče and Šentjakob is the one most sensitive to climate change. By running the models under different climate scenarios a deeper insight into aquifer system functioning was obtained. Investigating impacts of climate change on groundwater and interactions between surface water and groundwater on the local scale is a basis for applying such a study on the global scale, which was still not very well investigated.}, } @article {pmid30308832, year = {2019}, author = {Dong, Z and Driscoll, CT and Campbell, JL and Pourmokhtarian, A and Stoner, AMK and Hayhoe, K}, title = {Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an alpine tundra ecosystem in the southern Rocky Mountains using a biogeochemical model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1451-1464}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.151}, pmid = {30308832}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Using statistically downscaled future climate scenarios and a version of the biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC) that was modified for use in the alpine tundra, we investigated changes in water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under the Representative Concentration Pathways at Niwot Ridge in Colorado, USA. Our simulations indicate that future hydrology will become more water-limited over the short-term due to the temperature-induced increases in leaf conductance, but remains energy-limited over the longer term because of anticipated future decreases in leaf area and increases in annual precipitation. The seasonal distribution of the water supply will become decoupled from energy inputs due to advanced snowmelt, causing soil moisture stress to plants during the growing season. Decreases in summer soil moisture are projected to not only affect leaf production, but also reduce decomposition of soil organic matter in summer despite increasing temperature. Advanced future snowmelt in spring and increasing rain to snow ratio in fall are projected to increase soil moisture and decomposition of soil organic matter. The extended growing season is projected to increase carbon sequestration by 2% under the high radiative forcing scenario, despite a 31% reduction in leaf display due to the soil moisture stress. Our analyses demonstrate that future nitrogen uptake by alpine plants is regulated by nitrogen supply from mineralization, but plant nitrogen demand may also affect plant uptake under the warmer scenario. PnET-BGC simulations also suggest that potential CO2 effects on alpine plants are projected to cause larger increases in plant carbon storage than leaf and root production.}, } @article {pmid30308814, year = {2019}, author = {Byun, K and Chiu, CM and Hamlet, AF}, title = {Effects of 21st century climate change on seasonal flow regimes and hydrologic extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the US.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1261-1277}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.063}, pmid = {30308814}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Analyzing future changes in hydrologic extremes such as floods, low flows, and soil moisture extremes is important because many impacts on ecosystems and human systems occur during extreme events. To quantify changes in hydrologic extremes, this study conducts hydrologic modeling experiments over 20 Midwestern watersheds using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by historical observed datasets and future projections from statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) simulations. Our results show that peak daily streamflow at the 100-yr reoccurrence interval will increase (+10-30%) in most watersheds by 2080s due to significant increases in precipitation (P) and increasing P as rainfall during winter and spring seasons. The simulations also show strong shifts towards earlier peak flow timing (up to a month), especially in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds. These effects are linked to strong decreasing trends in maximum Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with warming, which are simulated over essentially the entire domain. Projected changes in 7-day extreme low flows are smaller in magnitude (-10-+10%) with somewhat larger decreases simulated at the end of century; however, the timing of extreme low flows is projected to shift from winter/spring to summer and fall in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the northernmost parts of the domain. Extreme low soil moisture increases over most of the domain in the future projections up to the 2050s, but by the 2080s there are more widespread decreases in extreme low soil moisture, especially in the northernmost parts of the domain.}, } @article {pmid30305760, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Economics Nobel for climate change, Hubble trouble and open-access ups and downs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7726}, pages = {168-169}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06954-5}, pmid = {30305760}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30301994, year = {2018}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7726}, pages = {172-173}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06876-2}, pmid = {30301994}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30301717, year = {2018}, author = {Balakrishnan, VS}, title = {Global warming: experts demand urgent action to prevent public health crisis.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k4241}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k4241}, pmid = {30301717}, issn = {1756-1833}, } @article {pmid30301052, year = {2018}, author = {Warwick, RM and Tweedley, JR and Potter, IC}, title = {Microtidal estuaries warrant special management measures that recognise their critical vulnerability to pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {135}, number = {}, pages = {41-46}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.06.062}, pmid = {30301052}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Not all estuaries are equally susceptible to anthropogenic perturbation. Microtidal estuaries with long residence times are intrinsically less robust than well-flushed macrotidal estuaries, facilitating the accumulation of contaminants. This promotes development of blooms of non-toxic and toxic phytoplankton, and hypoxia and anoxia may occur in deeper sections of the typically stratified water column. In Mediterranean and arid climates, high temperatures and low and/or seasonal rainfall can result in marked hypersalinity. Thus, any increase in anthropogenic perturbation will further decrease the health of a system in which the biota already experiences natural stress. Microtidal estuaries are also more susceptible to climate change, the detrimental longer-term effects of which are becoming manifestly obvious. Numerous attempts have been made to develop novel solutions to problems caused by eutrophication, phytoplankton blooms, hypoxia and hypersalinity, which have met with various levels of success, but the need for such measures and effective legislation is increasingly critical.}, } @article {pmid30300346, year = {2018}, author = {Gross, L}, title = {Confronting climate change in the age of denial.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {e3000033}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.3000033}, pmid = {30300346}, issn = {1545-7885}, abstract = {This Editorial introduces a Collection of articles in which the authors explore the challenges and pitfalls of communicating the science of climate change in an atmosphere where evidence doesn't matter.}, } @article {pmid30298082, year = {2018}, author = {Malacarne, G and Pilati, S and Valentini, S and Asnicar, F and Moretto, M and Sonego, P and Masera, L and Cavecchia, V and Blanzieri, E and Moser, C}, title = {Discovering Causal Relationships in Grapevine Expression Data to Expand Gene Networks. A Case Study: Four Networks Related to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1385}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01385}, pmid = {30298082}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In recent years the scientific community has been heavily engaged in studying the grapevine response to climate change. Final goal is the identification of key genetic traits to be used in grapevine breeding and the setting of agronomic practices to improve climatic resilience. The increasing availability of transcriptomic studies, describing gene expression in many tissues and developmental, or treatment conditions, have allowed the implementation of gene expression compendia, which enclose a huge amount of information. The mining of transcriptomic data represents an effective approach to expand a known local gene network (LGN) by finding new related genes. We recently published a pipeline based on the iterative application of the PC-algorithm, named NES2RA, to expand gene networks in Escherichia coli and Arabidopsis thaliana. Here, we propose the application of this method to the grapevine transcriptomic compendium Vespucci, in order to expand four LGNs related to the grapevine response to climate change. Two networks are related to the secondary metabolic pathways for anthocyanin and stilbenoid synthesis, involved in the response to solar radiation, whereas the other two are signaling networks, related to the hormones abscisic acid and ethylene, possibly involved in the regulation of cell water balance and cuticle transpiration. The expansion networks produced by NES2RA algorithm have been evaluated by comparison with experimental data and biological knowledge on the identified genes showing fairly good consistency of the results. In addition, the algorithm was effective in retaining only the most significant interactions among the genes providing a useful framework for experimental validation. The application of the NES2RA to Vitis vinifera expression data by means of the BOINC-based implementation is available upon request (valter.cavecchia@cnr.it).}, } @article {pmid30297481, year = {2018}, author = {Fontes, CG and Dawson, TE and Jardine, K and McDowell, N and Gimenez, BO and Anderegg, L and Negrón-Juárez, R and Higuchi, N and Fine, PVA and Araújo, AC and Chambers, JQ}, title = {Dry and hot: the hydraulic consequences of a climate change-type drought for Amazonian trees.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1760}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0209}, pmid = {30297481}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {How plants respond physiologically to leaf warming and low water availability may determine how they will perform under future climate change. In 2015-2016, an unprecedented drought occurred across Amazonia with record-breaking high temperatures and low soil moisture, offering a unique opportunity to evaluate the performances of Amazonian trees to a severe climatic event. We quantified the responses of leaf water potential, sap velocity, whole-tree hydraulic conductance (Kwt), turgor loss and xylem embolism, during and after the 2015-2016 El Niño for five canopy-tree species. Leaf/xylem safety margins (SMs), sap velocity and Kwt showed a sharp drop during warm periods. SMs were negatively correlated with vapour pressure deficit, but had no significant relationship with soil water storage. Based on our calculations of canopy stomatal and xylem resistances, the decrease in sap velocity and Kwt was due to a combination of xylem cavitation and stomatal closure. Our results suggest that warm droughts greatly amplify the degree of trees' physiological stress and can lead to mortality. Given the extreme nature of the 2015-2016 El Niño and that temperatures are predicted to increase, this work can serve as a case study of the possible impact climate warming can have on tropical trees.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.}, } @article {pmid30297424, year = {2018}, author = {Obradovich, N and Migliorini, R and Paulus, MP and Rahwan, I}, title = {Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {43}, pages = {10953-10958}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1801528115}, pmid = {30297424}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Sound mental health-a critical facet of human wellbeing-has the potential to be undermined by climate change. Few large-scale studies have empirically examined this hypothesis. Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health. To do so, we couple meteorological and climatic data with reported mental health difficulties drawn from nearly 2 million randomly sampled US residents between 2002 and 2012. We find that shifting from monthly temperatures between 25 °C and 30 °C to >30 °C increases the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5% points, that 1°C of 5-year warming associates with a 2% point increase in the prevalence of mental health issues, and that exposure to Hurricane Katrina associates with a 4% point increase in this metric. Our analyses provide added quantitative support for the conclusion that environmental stressors produced by climate change pose threats to human mental health.}, } @article {pmid30296777, year = {2019}, author = {Augustynczik, ALD and Asbeck, T and Basile, M and Bauhus, J and Storch, I and Mikusiński, G and Yousefpour, R and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Diversification of forest management regimes secures tree microhabitats and bird abundance under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2717-2730}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.366}, pmid = {30296777}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The loss of biodiversity in temperate forests due to combined effect of climate change and forest management poses a major threat to the functioning of these ecosystems in the future. Climate change is expected to modify ecological processes and amplify disturbances, compromising the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change and forest management on the abundance of tree microhabitats and forest birds as biodiversity proxies, using an integrated modelling approach. To perform our analysis, we calibrated tree microhabitat and bird abundance in a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, and coupled them with a climate sensitive forest growth model. Our results show generally positive impacts of climate warming and higher harvesting intensity on bird abundance, with up to 30% increase. Conversely, climate change and wood removals above 5% of the standing volume led to a loss of tree microhabitats. A diversified set of management regimes with different harvesting intensities applied in a landscape scale was required to balance this trade-off. For example, to maximize the expected bird abundance (up to 11%) and to avoid tree microhabitat abundance loss of >20% necessitates setting aside 10.2% of the forest area aside and application of harvesting intensities < 10.4% of the standing volume. We conclude that promoting forest structural complexity by diversifying management regimes across the landscape will be key to maintain forest biodiversity in temperate forests under climate change.}, } @article {pmid30296775, year = {2019}, author = {Nilawar, AP and Waikar, ML}, title = {Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: A case study in Purna river basin, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2685-2696}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.334}, pmid = {30296775}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change has a significant effect on various hydrological processes in a large river basin. The assessment of these processes is also useful for water resource management and long-term sustainability of any hydrological project. In this study, an attempt is made to quantify the effects of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration in the Purna river basin, India. Three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 for the four future periods of P1 (2009-2031), P2 (2032-2053), P3 (2054-2075) and P4 (2076-2099) are considered. Differences in scenarios are compared with the base period 1980-2005. The SWAT is used on monthly basis for the period 1980 to 2005 with calibration period 1980 to 1994 and validation period 1995 to 2005. The projected precipitation and temperature show a significant increasing trend compared to the baseline condition for both RCPs. Similarly, the average monthly streamflow is projected to increase by 24.47 to 115.94m3/s whereas average monthly sediment concentration by 32.58 to 162.96mg/l under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In particular, streamflow and sediment are expected to increase significantly from June to September at the outlet of the basin. The study results give insight into future hydrological scenarios which will be useful for policy makers to implement effective water resource strategies.}, } @article {pmid30296610, year = {2018}, author = {Shen, R and Ye, ZC and Gao, J and Hou, YP and Ye, H}, title = {Climate change risk perception in global: Correlation with petroleum and liver disease: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {166}, number = {}, pages = {453-461}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2018.09.080}, pmid = {30296610}, issn = {1090-2414}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Liver diseases have been bound to environmental factors, inclusive of air pollution. The exposure of workers to petrochemicals counts as a possible cause of Liver diseases, whereas results are inconsistent with the previous studies. In this study, a meta-analysis is conducted to assess the pooled risk.

METHODS AND FINDING: A systematic search was performed by related researchers. Correlations are analyzed among petroleum and liver cirrhosis mortality, fatty liver, alanine amino transferase (abbreviated as ALT), aspartate amino transferase (abbreviated as AST). Pooled risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and effect size(ES) with 95% confidence interval are calculated. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias are also tested. Data are analyzed from 5 studies involving 296 participants. Results are incorporated through adopting a random effects meta-analysis. Working in a petrochemical plant shall not increase the death risk posed by cirrhosis (RR = 0.44, 95% CI [0.36; 0.54]). Yet the incidence of fatty liver increases (RR = 1.22, 95% CI [1.21; 1.23]). Abnormal incidence of ALT and AST also increases.

CONCLUSIONS: Occupational exposure plays an important role in causing ALT abnormalities and fatty liver among oil workers, but not a risk factor of cirrhosis, AST abnormalities and liver cancer.}, } @article {pmid30295401, year = {2018}, author = {Kwiatkowski, L and Aumont, O and Bopp, L}, title = {Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14468}, pmid = {30295401}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1 ± 2.5% over the twenty-first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6 ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid-to-high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30295388, year = {2018}, author = {Chan, FT and Stanislawczyk, K and Sneekes, AC and Dvoretsky, A and Gollasch, S and Minchin, D and David, M and Jelmert, A and Albretsen, J and Bailey, SA}, title = {Climate change opens new frontiers for marine species in the Arctic: current trends and future invasion risks.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14469}, pmid = {30295388}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing non-indigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Twenty of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, each with 14 records. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan-Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to climate change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change-invasive species and climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, } @article {pmid30293660, year = {2018}, author = {Rich, WA and Schubert, N and Schläpfer, N and Carvalho, VF and Horta, ACL and Horta, PA}, title = {Physiological and biochemical responses of a coralline alga and a sea urchin to climate change: Implications for herbivory.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.026}, pmid = {30293660}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Direct responses to rising temperatures and ocean acidification are increasingly well known for many single species, yet recent reviews have highlighted the need for climate change research to consider a broader range of species, how stressors may interact, and how stressors may affect species interactions. The latter point is important in the context of plant-herbivore interactions, as increasing evidence shows that increasing seawater temperature and/or acidification can alter algal traits that dictate their susceptibility to herbivores, and subsequently, community and ecosystem properties. To better understand how marine rocky shore environments will be affected by a changing ocean, in the present study we investigated the direct effects of short-term, co-occurring increased temperature and ocean acidification on a coralline alga (Jania rubens) and a sea urchin herbivore (Echinometra lucunter) and assessed the indirect effects of these factors on the algal-herbivore interaction. A 21-day mesocosm experiment was conducted with both algae and sea urchins exposed to ambient (24 °C, Low CO2), high-temperature (28 °C, Low CO2), acidified (24 °C, High CO2), or high-temperature plus acidified (28 °C, High CO2) conditions. Algal photosynthesis, respiration, and phenolic content were unaffected by increased temperature and CO2, but calcium carbonate content was reduced under high CO2 treatments in both temperatures, while total sugar content of the algae was reduced under acidified, lower temperature conditions. Metabolic rates of the sea urchin were elevated in the lower temperature, high CO2 treatment, and feeding assays showed that consumption rates also increased in this treatment. Despite some changes to algal chemical composition, it appears that at least under short-term exposure to climate change conditions, direct effects on herbivore metabolism dictated herbivory rates, while indirect effects caused by changes in algal palatability seemed to be of minor importance.}, } @article {pmid30293009, year = {2019}, author = {González-Zeas, D and Erazo, B and Lloret, P and De Bièvre, B and Steinschneider, S and Dangles, O}, title = {Linking global climate change to local water availability: Limitations and prospects for a tropical mountain watershed.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2577-2586}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.309}, pmid = {30293009}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Bridging the gap between the predictions of coarse-scale climate models and the fine-scale climatic reality is a key issue of hydrological research and water management. While many advances have been realized in developed countries, the situation is contrastingly different in most tropical regions where we still lack information on potential discrepancies between measured and modeled climatic conditions. Consequently, water managers in these regions often rely on non-academic expertise to help them plan their future strategies. This issue is particularly alarming in tropical mountainous areas where water demand is increasing rapidly and climate change is expected to have severe impacts. In this article, we addressed this issue by evaluating the limitations and prospects in using regional climate models for evaluating the impact of climate change on water availability in a watershed that provides Quito, the capital of Ecuador, with about 30% of its current water needs. In particular, we quantified the temporal and spatial discrepancies between predicted and observed precipitation and temperature, and explored underlying mechanisms at play. Our results provide a strong critique of the inappropriate use of regional models to inform water planning with regard to adaptation strategies to face climate change. As a multidisciplinary group composed of hydrologists, ecologists and water managers, we then propose a framework to guide future climate change impact studies in tropical mountain watersheds where hydro-climatological data are scarce.}, } @article {pmid30291786, year = {2018}, author = {Odey, EA and Abo, BO and Li, Z and Zhou, X and Giwa, AS}, title = {Influence of climate and environmental change in Nigeria: a review on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2018-0043}, pmid = {30291786}, issn = {2191-0308}, abstract = {This paper reviews the current issues that involve environmental changes in Nigeria and environmental threats within the country. The fundamental aim of scientific knowledge in environmental studies is to reconcile climate change and environmental sustainability with developmental goals. Therefore, information on impact adaptation to climate change and vulnerability research is required to develop specific, action-oriented, interdisciplinary, successful, sociopolitical and democratic reform for the entire population of a country. This condition requires large inclusion of environmental researchers, institutions, re-inventing of research structures and ideas to dominate the global environmental change research and the critical analysis of present decision making, power, structure and related information structures. This review presents the effect of climate change in Nigeria and encourages adaptation research with challenging innovation, such as the use of energy-efficient renewable energy sources to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper also highlighted the need for researchers to become detailed, action oriented and multiscalar and to attend communications structure problems in enhancing the environmental activity.}, } @article {pmid30290771, year = {2018}, author = {Rinne, PLH and Paul, LK and van der Schoot, C}, title = {Decoupling photo- and thermoperiod by projected climate change perturbs bud development, dormancy establishment and vernalization in the model tree Populus.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {220}, doi = {10.1186/s12870-018-1432-0}, pmid = {30290771}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {192013 and 263117//Norwegian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The performance and survival of deciduous trees depends on their innate ability to anticipate seasonal change. A key event is the timely production of short photoperiod-induced terminal and axillary buds that are dormant and freezing-tolerant. Some observations suggest that low temperature contributes to terminal bud initiation and dormancy. This is puzzling because low temperatures in the chilling range universally release dormancy. It also raises the broader question if the projected climate instabilities, as well as the northward migration of trees, will affect winter preparations and survival of trees.

RESULTS: To gauge the response capacity of trees, we exposed juvenile hybrid aspens to a 10-h short photoperiod in combination with different day/night temperature regimes: high (24/24 °C), moderate (18/18 °C), moderate-low (18/12 °C) and low (12/12 °C), and analysed bud development, dormancy establishment, and marker gene expression. We found that low temperature during the bud formation period (pre-dormancy) upregulated dormancy-release genes of the gibberellin (GA) pathway, including the key GA biosynthesis genes GA20oxidase and GA3oxidase, the GA-receptor gene GID1, as well as GA-inducible enzymes of the 1,3-β-glucanase family that degrade callose at plasmodesmal Dormancy Sphincter Complexes. Simultaneously, this pre-dormancy low temperature perturbed the expression of flowering pathway genes, including CO, FT, CENL1, AGL14, LFY and AP1. In brief, pre-dormancy low temperature compromised bud development, dormancy establishment, and potentially vernalization. On the other hand, a high pre-dormancy temperature prevented dormancy establishment and resulted in flushing.

CONCLUSIONS: The results show that pre-dormancy low temperature represents a form of chilling that antagonizes dormancy establishment. Combined with available field data, this indicates that natural Populus ecotypes have evolved to avoid the adverse effects of high and low temperatures by initiating and completing dormant buds within an approximate temperature-window of 24-12 °C. Global warming and erratic temperature patterns outside this range can therefore endanger the successful propagation of deciduous perennials.}, } @article {pmid30290336, year = {2019}, author = {Tang, KHD}, title = {Climate change in Malaysia: Trends, contributors, impacts, mitigation and adaptations.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1858-1871}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.316}, pmid = {30290336}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {PURPOSE: This paper reviews the past and future trends of climate change in Malaysia, the major contributors of greenhouse gases and the impacts of climate change to Malaysia. It also reviews the mitigation and adaptations undertaken, and future strategies to manage the impacts of regional climate change.

METHODOLOGY: The review encompasses historical climate data comprising mean daily temperature, precipitation, mean sea level and occurrences of extreme weather events. Future climate projections have also been reviewed in addition to scholarly papers and news articles related to impacts, contributors, mitigation and adaptations in relation to climate change.

FINDINGS: The review shows that annual mean temperature, occurrences of extreme weather events and mean sea level are rising while rainfall shows variability. Future projections point to continuous rise of temperature and mean sea level till the end of the 21st century, highly variable rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change impacts particularly on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy. The energy and waste management sectors are the major contributors to climate change. Mitigation of and adaptations to climate change in Malaysia revolve around policy setting, enactment of laws, formulation and implementation of plans and programmes, as well as global and regional collaborations, particularly for energy, water resources, agriculture and biodiversity. There are apparent shortcomings in continuous improvement and monitoring of the programmes as well as enforcement of the relevant laws.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the major themes of climate change in Malaysia and recommends pertinent ways forward to fill the gaps of mitigation and adaptations already implemented.}, } @article {pmid30288205, year = {2018}, author = {Lafuente, A and Berdugo, M and de Guevara, ML and Gozalo, B and Maestre, FT}, title = {Simulated climate change affects how biocrusts modulate water gains and desiccation dynamics after rainfall events.}, journal = {Ecohydrology : ecosystems, land and water process interactions, ecohydrogeomorphology}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/eco.1935}, pmid = {30288205}, issn = {1936-0584}, support = {242658//European Research Council/International ; 647038//European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Soil surface communities dominated by mosses, lichens and cyanobacteria (biocrusts) are common between vegetation patches in drylands worldwide, and are known to affect soil wetting and drying after rainfall events. While ongoing climate change is already warming and changing rainfall patterns of drylands in many regions, little is known on how these changes may affect the hydrological behaviour of biocrust-covered soils. We used eight years of continuous soil moisture and rainfall data from a climate change experiment in central Spain to explore how biocrusts modify soil water gains and losses after rainfall events under simulated changes in temperature (2.5°C warming) and rainfall (33% reduction). Both rainfall amount and biocrust cover increased soil water gains after rainfall events, whereas experimental warming, rainfall intensity and initial soil moisture decreased them. Initial moisture, maximum temperature and biocrust cover, by means of enhancing potential evapotranspiration or by soil darkening, increased the drying rates and enhanced the exponential behaviour of the drying events. Meanwhile, warming reduced their exponential behaviour. The effects of climate change treatments on soil water gains and losses changed through time, with important differences between the first two years of the experiment and five years after its setup. These effects were mainly driven by the important reductions in biocrust cover and diversity observed under warming. Our results highlight the importance of long-term studies to understand soil moisture responses to ongoing climate change in drylands.}, } @article {pmid30287852, year = {2018}, author = {Di Cecco, GJ and Gouhier, TC}, title = {Increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14850}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-33217-0}, pmid = {30287852}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CCF-1442728//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; OCE-1635989//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions is important to determine how climate change will impact ecological communities. The spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature can have strong impacts on community structure and persistence by increasing the duration and the magnitude of unfavorable conditions in sink populations and disrupting spatial rescue effects by synchronizing spatially segregated populations. Although increases in spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature have been documented in historical data, little is known about how climate change will impact these trends. We examined daily air temperature data from 21 General Circulation Models under the business-as-usual carbon emission scenario to quantify patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation between 1871 and 2099. Although both spatial and temporal autocorrelation increased over time, there was significant regional variation in the temporal autocorrelation trends. Additionally, we found a consistent breakpoint in the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and time around the year 2030, indicating an acceleration in the rate of increase of the spatial autocorrelation over the second half of the 21st century. Overall, our results suggest that ecological populations might experience elevated extinction risk under climate change because increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature is expected to erode both spatial and temporal refugia.}, } @article {pmid30286359, year = {2019}, author = {Iqbal, MS and Islam, MMM and Hofstra, N}, title = {The impact of socio-economic development and climate change on E. coli loads and concentrations in Kabul River, Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1935-1943}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.347}, pmid = {30286359}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Microbial pollution is a major problem worldwide. High concentrations of Escherichia coli have been found in Kabul River in Pakistan. E. coli concentrations vary under different socio-economic conditions, such as population and livestock densities, urbanisation, sanitation and treatment of wastewater and manure, and climate-change aspects, such as floods and droughts. In this paper, we assess potential future E. coli loads and concentrations in the Kabul River using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool with scenarios that are based on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs and RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Scenario_1 considers moderate population and livestock density growth, planned urbanisation and strongly improved wastewater and manure treatment (based on SSP1, "Sustainability"), and moderate climate change (RCP4.5, moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions). Scenario_2 considers strong population and livestock density growth, moderate urbanisation, slightly improved wastewater treatment, no manure treatment (based on SSP3, "Regional rivalry") and strong climate change (RCP8.5, high GHG emissions). Simulated E. coli responses to Scenario_2 suggest a mid-century increase in loads by 111% and a late century increase of 201% compared to baseline loads. Similarly, simulated E. coli loads are reduced by 60% for the mid-century and 78% for the late century compared to the baseline loads. When additional treatment is simulated in Scenario_1, the loads are reduced even further by 94%, 92% and 99.3% compared to the baseline concentrations when additional tertiary treatment, manure treatment or both have been applied respectively. This study is one of the first to apply combined socio-economic development and climate change scenario analysis with an E. coli concentration model to better understand how these concentrations may change in the future. The scenario analysis shows that reducing E. coli concentrations in Pakistan's rivers is possible, but requires strongly improved waste water treatment and manure management measures.}, } @article {pmid30286353, year = {2019}, author = {Du, X and Shrestha, NK and Wang, J}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on stream temperature in the Athabasca River Basin using SWAT equilibrium temperature model and its potential impacts on stream ecosystem.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1872-1881}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.344}, pmid = {30286353}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Stream temperatures, which influence dynamics and distributions of the aquatic species and kinetics of biochemical reactions, are expected to be altered by the climate change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change on stream temperature is helpful for integrated water resources management. In this study, our previously developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) equilibrium temperature model, which considers both the impacts of meteorological condition and hydrological processes, was used to assess the climate change impact on the stream temperature regimes in the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), a cold climate region watershed of western Canada. The streamflow and stream temperatures were calibrated and validated first in the baseline period, using multi-site observed data in the ARB. Then, climate change impact assessments were conducted based on three climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Results showed that warmer and wetter future condition would prevail in the ARB. As a result, streamflow in the basin would increase despite the projected increases in evapotranspiration due to warmer condition. On the basin scale, annual stream temperatures are expected to increase by 0.8 to 1.1 °C in mid-century and by 1.6 to 3.1 °C in late century. Moreover, the stream temperature changes showed a marked temporal pattern with the highest increases (2.0 to 7.4 °C) in summer. The increasing stream temperatures would affect water quality dynamics in the ARB by decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations and increasing biochemical reaction rates in the streams. Such spatial-temporal changes in stream temperature regimes in future period would also affect aquatic species, thus require appropriate management measures to attenuate the impacts.}, } @article {pmid30283484, year = {2018}, author = {Bajay, SK and Cruz, MV and da Silva, CC and Murad, NF and Brandão, MM and de Souza, AP}, title = {Extremophiles as a Model of a Natural Ecosystem: Transcriptional Coordination of Genes Reveals Distinct Selective Responses of Plants Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1376}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01376}, pmid = {30283484}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The goal of this research was to generate networks of co-expressed genes to explore the genomic responses of Rhizophora mangle L. populations to contrasting environments and to use gene network analysis to investigate their capacity for adaptation in the face of historical and future perturbations and climatic changes. RNA sequencing data were generated for R. mangle samples collected under field conditions from contrasting climate zones in the equatorial and subtropical regions of Brazil. A gene co-expression network was constructed using Pearson's correlation coefficient, showing correlations among 78,364 transcriptionally coordinated genes. Each region exhibited two distinct network profiles; genes correlated with the oxidative stress response showed higher relative expression levels in subtropical samples than in equatorial samples, whereas genes correlated with the hyperosmotic salinity response, heat response and UV response had higher expression levels in the equatorial samples than in the subtropical samples. In total, 992 clusters had enriched ontology terms, which suggests that R. mangle is under higher stress in the equatorial region than in the subtropical region. Increased heat may thus pose a substantial risk to species diversity at the center of its distribution range in the Americas. This study, which was performed using trees in natural field conditions, allowed us to associate the specific responses of genes previously described in controlled environments with their responses to the local habitat where the species occurs. The study reveals the effects of contrasting environments on gene expression in R. mangle, shedding light on the different abiotic variables that may contribute to the genetic divergence previously described for the species through the use of simple sequence repeats (SSRs). These effects may result from two fundamental processes in evolution, namely, phenotypic plasticity and natural selection.}, } @article {pmid30283159, year = {2018}, author = {Hundessa, S and Williams, G and Li, S and Liu, L and Cao, W and Ren, H and Guo, J and Gasparrini, A and Ebi, K and Zhang, W and Guo, Y}, title = {Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {627}, number = {}, pages = {1285-1293}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.300}, pmid = {30283159}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Background: Global climate change is likely to increase the geographic range and seasonality of malaria transmission. Areas suitable for distribution of malaria vectors are predicted to increase with climate change but evidence is limited on future distribution of malaria with climate in China.

Objective: Our aim was to assess a potential effect of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) and Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) malaria under climate change scenarios.

Methods: National malaria surveillance data during 2005-2014 were integrated with corresponding climate data to model current weather-malaria relationship. We used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with a spatial component, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution and including an offset for the population while accounting for potential non-linearity and long-term trend. The association was applied to future climate to project county-level malaria distribution using ensembles of Global Climate Models under two climate scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).

Results: Climate change could substantially increase P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria, under both climate scenarios, but by larger amount under RCP8.5, compared to the baseline. P. falciparum is projected to increase more than P.vivax. The distributions of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria are expected to increase in most regions regardless of the climate scenarios. A high percentage (>50%) increases are projected in some counties of the northwest, north, northeast, including northern tip of the northeast China, with a clearer spatial change for P. vivax than P. falciparum under both scenarios, highlighting potential changes in the latitudinal extent of the malaria.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that spatial and temporal distribution of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China will change due to future climate change, if there is no policy to mitigate it. These findings are important to guide the malaria elimination goal for China.}, } @article {pmid30283116, year = {2018}, author = {Kiser, B}, title = {An ode to female space trainees, the creeping cost of climate change, and the fabric of history: Books in brief.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7725}, pages = {35}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06862-8}, pmid = {30283116}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30275304, year = {2018}, author = {Parent, B and Leclere, M and Lacube, S and Semenov, MA and Welcker, C and Martre, P and Tardieu, F}, title = {Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {42}, pages = {10642-10647}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1720716115}, pmid = {30275304}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Projections based on invariant genotypes and agronomic practices indicate that climate change will largely decrease crop yields. The comparatively few studies considering farmers' adaptation result in a diversity of impacts depending on their assumptions. We combined experiments and process-based modeling for analyzing the consequences of climate change on European maize yields if farmers made the best use of the current genetic variability of cycle duration, based on practices they currently use. We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions. This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions and extended to 59 European sites over 36 years with a crop model. The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulations were then carried out for 2050 with 3 million combinations of crop cycle durations, climate scenarios, management practices, and modeling hypotheses. Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (-1 to +1%) compared with the 1975-2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration, whereas it was increased (+4-7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment. The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe and increased European maize production if farmers continued to make the best use of the genetic variability of crop cycle duration.}, } @article {pmid30266900, year = {2018}, author = {Moore, JS and Chapman, JM and Mazerolle, MJ and Harris, LN and Taylor, EB}, title = {Premature alarm on the impacts of climate change on Arctic Char in Lake Hazen.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3985}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-06479-5}, pmid = {30266900}, issn = {2041-1723}, } @article {pmid30262270, year = {2018}, author = {Saraiva, ACF and Mesquita, A and de Oliveira, TF and Hauser-Davis, RA}, title = {High CO2 effects on growth and biometal contents in the pioneer species Senna reticulata: climate change predictions.}, journal = {Journal of trace elements in medicine and biology : organ of the Society for Minerals and Trace Elements (GMS)}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {130-138}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtemb.2018.06.018}, pmid = {30262270}, issn = {1878-3252}, abstract = {The aim of the present study consisted in evaluating the effects of CO2 enrichment on the growth and biometal/nutrient content and accumulation in Senna reticulata germinated under two different carbon dioxide concentrations: atmospheric (360 mg L-1) and elevated (720 mg L-1). Biometal/nutrient determinations were performed on three different plant portions (leaflets, stem and root) using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. In general, the biometal and nutrient stoichiometries in roots were increased, probably due to reduced transpiration, and consequent biometal accumulation. An Artifical Neural Network analysis suggests that Mg, Na and Fe display the most different behavior when comparing plants germinated at atmospheric and elevated CO2 conditions. Biomass and growth increases and certain elemental levels indicate that S. reticulata benefits from increased CO2 levels, however some results indicate the contrary, making further studies in this context necessary, as these changes may lead to direct effects on food safety, crop yields, and phytoremediation efficiency.}, } @article {pmid30261186, year = {2018}, author = {Stensgaard, AS and Vounatsou, P and Sengupta, ME and Utzinger, J}, title = {Schistosomes, snails and climate change: Current trends and future expectations.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.09.013}, pmid = {30261186}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {The exact impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, a blood-fluke affecting more than 250 million people mainly in tropical and subtropical countries, is currently unknown, but likely to vary with the snail-parasite species' specific ecologies and the spatio-temporal scale of investigation. Here, by means of a systematic review to identify studies reporting on impacts of climate change on the agents of schistosomiasis, we provide an updated synthesis of the current knowledge about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation. We found that, despite a recent increase in scientific studies that discuss the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, only a handful of reports have applied modelling and predictive forecasting that provide a quantitative estimate of potential outcomes. The volume and type of evidence associated with climate change responses were found to be variable across geographical regions and snail-parasite taxonomic groups. Indeed, the strongest evidence stems from the People's Republic of China pertaining to Schistosoma japonicum. Some evidence is also available from eastern Africa, mainly for Schistosoma mansoni. While studies focused on the northern and southern range margins for schistosomiasis indicate an increase in transmission range as the most likely outcome, there was less agreement about the direction of outcomes from the central and eastern parts of Africa. The current lack of consensus suggests that climate change is more likely to shift than to expand the geographic ranges of schistosomiasis. A comparison between the current geographical distributions and the thermo-physiological limitations of the two main African schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni) offered additional insights, and showed that both species already exist near their thermo-physiological niche boundaries. The African species both stand to move considerably out of their "thermal comfort zone" in a future, warmer Africa, but S. haematobium in particular is likely to experience less favourable climatic temperatures. The consequences for schistosomiasis transmission will to a large extent depend on the parasites and snails ability to adapt or move. Based on the identified geographical trends and knowledge gaps about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation, we propose to align efforts to close the current knowledge gaps and focus on areas considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30260968, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, J and Zhan, X and Jiang, Y and Xu, J}, title = {Variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for potato in northern China under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203538}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0203538}, pmid = {30260968}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Investigating the variations in crop climatic suitability and planting regionalization can provide scientific evidence for ensuring food security under climate change. In this study, variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for the potato in northern China were investigated based on daily data from 1965 to 2014 collected at 321 agro-meteorological observation stations located throughout the region. Northern China was divided into three areas, including Northwest China, North China and Northeast China. The agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method were applied. The potato growth seasons were divided into threestages:from sowing to emergence, from emergence to flowering and from flowering to maturity. The comprehensive climatic suitabilityindex (C), which varied from 0 to 1, was established to evaluate the effects of climate change on potato planting. The results showed that, from 1965 to 2014, the C value in the study area increased 0.002 every ten years over the past 50 years with an average of 0.706, benefitting potato growth in the vast area of northern China. Nonetheless, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor restricting potato growth in northern China. For spatial distribution, the C value showed a gradually declining trend from east to west, decreasing westward and southward over the past 50 years. For the growth season, the C value varied during different potato growth stages over the past 50 years. The C value increased during the sowing-emergence stage and decreased during the emergence-flowering stage and the flowering-maturity stage. The decreased C during the later growth stages would directly affect the quality and yield of the potato, mainly because the flowering-maturity stage was associated with potato tuber enlargement and starch accumulation. Variations in potato planting regionalization in northern China over the past 50 years were evident. Climate change was more beneficial to potato cultivation in northeast China where the highly suitable areas had clearly expanded. However, potato cultivation was most negatively affected in northwest China where the middle suitable areas had receded. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.}, } @article {pmid30258078, year = {2018}, author = {Sylla, MB and Pal, JS and Faye, A and Dimobe, K and Kunstmann, H}, title = {Climate change to severely impact West African basin scale irrigation in 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14395}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-32736-0}, pmid = {30258078}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {West Africa is in general limited to rainfed agriculture. It lacks irrigation opportunities and technologies that are applied in many economically developed nations. A warming climate along with an increasing population and wealth has the potential to further strain the region's potential to meet future food needs. In this study, we investigate West Africa's hydrological potential to increase agricultural productivity through the implementation of large-scale water storage and irrigation. A 23-member ensemble of Regional Climate Models is applied to assess changes in hydrologically relevant variables under 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios according to the UNFCCC 2015 Conference of Parties (COP 21) agreement. Changes in crop water demand, irrigation water need, water availability and the difference between water availability and irrigation water needs, here referred as basin potential, are presented for ten major river basins covering entire West Africa. Under the 2 °C scenario, crop water demand and irrigation water needs are projected to substantially increase with the largest changes in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea respectively. At the same time, irrigation potential, which is directly controlled by the climate, is projected to decrease even in regions where water availability increases. This indicates that West African river basins will likely face severe freshwater shortages thus limiting sustainable agriculture. We conclude a general decline in the basin-scale irrigation potential in the event of large-scale irrigation development under 2 °C global warming. Reducing the warming to 1.5 °C decreases these impacts by as much as 50%, suggesting that the region of West Africa clearly benefits from efforts of enhanced mitigation.}, } @article {pmid30256156, year = {2018}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {More Cases of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: A Consequence of Climate Change?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {9}, pages = {94002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP3778}, pmid = {30256156}, issn = {1552-9924}, } @article {pmid30256154, year = {2018}, author = {Lloyd, SJ and Bangalore, M and Chalabi, Z and Kovats, RS and Hallegatte, S and Rozenberg, J and Valin, H and Havlík, P}, title = {A Global-Level Model of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Child Stunting via Income and Food Price in 2030.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {9}, pages = {97007}, doi = {10.1289/EHP2916}, pmid = {30256154}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In 2016, 23% of children (155 million) aged [Formula: see text] were stunted. Global-level modeling has consistently found climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition.

OBJECTIVES: We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioeconomic drivers: incomes of the poorest 20% of populations (due to climate impacts on crop production, health, labor productivity, and disasters) and food prices.

METHODS: We developed a statistical model to project moderate and severe stunting in children aged [Formula: see text] at the national level in 2030 under low and high climate change scenarios combined with poverty and prosperity scenarios in 44 countries.

RESULTS: We estimated that in the absence of climate change, 110 million children aged [Formula: see text] would be stunted in 2030 under the poverty scenario in comparison with 83 million under the prosperity scenario. Estimates of climate change-attributable stunting ranged from 570,000 under the prosperity/low climate change scenario to [Formula: see text] under the poverty/high climate change scenario. The projected impact of climate change on stunting was greater in rural vs. urban areas under both socioeconomic scenarios. In countries with lower incomes and relatively high food prices, we projected that rising prices would tend to increase stunting, whereas in countries with higher incomes and relatively low food prices, rising prices would tend to decrease stunting. These findings suggest that food prices that provide decent incomes to farmers alongside high employment with living wages will reduce undernutrition and vulnerability to climate change.

CONCLUSIONS: Shifting the focus from food production to interactions between incomes and food price provides new insights. Futures that protect health should consider not just availability, accessibility, and quality of food, but also the incomes generated by those producing the food. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2916.}, } @article {pmid30254516, year = {2018}, author = {Dworetzky, BA}, title = {Global Warming for Psychogenic Nonepileptic Seizures? Report From ILAE Climate Survey.}, journal = {Epilepsy currents}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {231-232}, doi = {10.5698/1535-7597.18.4.231}, pmid = {30254516}, issn = {1535-7597}, } @article {pmid30253695, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, TP and Nisbet, EC and Nisbet, MC}, title = {Climate change, cultural cognition, and media effects: Worldviews drive news selectivity, biased processing, and polarized attitudes.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {985-1002}, doi = {10.1177/0963662518801170}, pmid = {30253695}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {According to cultural cognition theory, individuals hold opinions about politically contested issues like climate change that are consistent with their "cultural way of life," conforming their opinions to how they think society should be organized and to what they perceive are the attitudes of their cultural peers. Yet despite dozens of cultural cognition studies, none have directly examined the role of the news media in facilitating these differential interpretations. To address this gap, drawing on a national survey of US adults administered in 2015, we statistically modeled the cultural cognition process in relation to news choices and media effects on public attitudes about climate change. Individuals possessing strongly held cultural worldviews, our findings show, not only choose news outlets where they expect to find culturally congruent arguments about climate change, but they also selectively process the arguments they encounter. Overall, our study demonstrates the substantial role that cultural cognition in combination with news media choices play in contributing to opinion polarization on climate change and other politicized science topics.}, } @article {pmid30252686, year = {2018}, author = {Al-Delaimy, WK and Krzyzanowski, M}, title = {A Policy Brief: Climate Change and Epidemiology Type of Manuscript: Commentary.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000925}, pmid = {30252686}, issn = {1531-5487}, } @article {pmid30251041, year = {2018}, author = {Xing, B and Chen, H and Chen, Q and Zhang, Y and Liu, Z and Yang, Z}, title = {Assessing impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Coregonus ussuriensis and other coldwater fishes in northern China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3236-z}, pmid = {30251041}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {ZR2015YL011//Shandong Natural Science Foundation/ ; 51179007//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 201401014//Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of China/ ; 2015ZX07203-005//Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment/ ; ZR2016YL003//Shandong Natural Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change seriously affects habitat suitability for coldwater fish. Amur whitefish (Coregonus ussuriensis) is a commercially important coldwater fish species found in northeast China that is particularly sensitive to water temperature. We use water temperature models for Songhua (Harbin to Yilan) and Mayi rivers to predict habitat suitability for Amur whitefish and other coldwater fish species during the months of July and August in 2014 and 2100-2 months during which river temperatures can reach extremes. The predict-results showed that fish habitat was to deteriorate over time, and to be less suitable for survival of coldwater fish species in 2100 than that in 2014. Under scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5), the time period during which habitat for Amur whitefish was unsuitable increased continually; under scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), Amur whitefish might even disappear from the river basin. A significant increase in river water temperature will compromise coldwater fish survival and possibly lead to their disappearance. Practical measures to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the impact of global warming on aquatic ecosystems must be taken.}, } @article {pmid30250726, year = {2018}, author = {Manzanedo, RD and Ballesteros-Cánovas, J and Schenk, F and Stoffel, M and Fischer, M and Allan, E}, title = {Increase in CO2 concentration could alter the response of Hedera helix to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {8598-8606}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4388}, pmid = {30250726}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Increasing CO 2 concentration ([CO 2]) is likely to affect future species distributions, in interaction with other climate change drivers. However, current modeling approaches still seldom consider interactions between climatic factors and the importance of these interactions therefore remains mostly unexplored. Here, we combined dendrochronological and modeling approaches to study the interactive effects of increasing [CO 2] and temperature on the distribution of one of the main European liana species, Hedera helix. We combined a classical continent-wide species distribution modeling approach with a case study using H. helix and Quercus cerris tree rings, where we explored the long-term influence of a variety of climate drivers, including increasing [CO 2], and their interactions, on secondary growth. Finally, we explored how our findings could influence the model predictions. Climate-only model predictions showed a small decrease in habitat suitability for H. helix in Europe; however, this was accompanied by a strong shift in the distribution toward the north and east. Our growth ring data suggested that H. helix can benefit from high [CO 2] under warm conditions, more than its tree hosts, which showed a weaker response to [CO 2] coupled with higher cavitation risk under high temperature. Increasing [CO 2] might therefore offset the negative effects of high temperatures on H. helix, and we illustrate how this might translate into maintenance of H. helix in warmer areas. Our results highlight the need to consider carbon fertilization and interactions between climate variables in ecological modeling. Combining dendrochronological analyses with spatial distribution modeling may provide opportunities to refine predictions of how climate change will affect species distributions.}, } @article {pmid30250709, year = {2018}, author = {Marion, L and Bergerot, B}, title = {Northern range shift may be due to increased competition induced by protection of species rather than to climate change alone.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {8364-8379}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4348}, pmid = {30250709}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Few long-term, large-scale studies have been conducted about the factors likely to explain changes in species abundance and distribution in winter. Range shifts are generally attributed to the climate change or land use. This study shows that other factors such as species protection and the ensuing increasing numbers of individuals and competition could be involved. It details the progressive conquest of France, the most important European wintering area for great cormorant, in three decades as its legal protection by the EU Birds Directive. It is based on 13 exhaustive national counts. Cormorants first occupied the farthest areas (Atlantic and Mediterranean lagoons, then larger rivers) from the main-core European breeding area, with only progressive occupancy of the northeastern part later. This strategy mainly resulted from competition for optimal available feeding areas. Suboptimal areas (smaller wetlands harboring smaller night roosts, colder northeastern French areas) and progressive fragmentation of large night roosts into smaller, better located ones minimized flight costs. The coldest areas were occupied last, once other areas were saturated. Their occupancy was favored locally by the global climate change, but it played a minor role in these strategies. Both factors induced only a small NNE shift of the weighted centroid range of the wintering population (2.6 km/year) which mainly resulted from competition (buffer effect). Only the 2009 cold wave decreased the total number of wintering cormorants at the national scale, once the population had probably reached the carrying capacity of the country, while the previous cold waves had a minor effect. Comparatively, there was a greater SSE range shift of the weighted centroid of the breeding population (4.66 km/year). Range shifts of other recently protected species have been attributed to the sole climate change in the literature, but competition due to the saturation of usual wintering or breeding areas should be considered too.}, } @article {pmid30250673, year = {2018}, author = {Chardon, NI and Wipf, S and Rixen, C and Beilstein, A and Doak, DF}, title = {Local trampling disturbance effects on alpine plant populations and communities: Negative implications for climate change vulnerability.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {7921-7935}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4276}, pmid = {30250673}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global change is modifying species communities from local to landscape scales, with alterations in the abiotic and biotic determinants of geographic range limits causing species range shifts along both latitudinal and elevational gradients. An important but often overlooked component of global change is the effect of anthropogenic disturbance, and how it interacts with the effects of climate to affect both species and communities, as well as interspecies interactions, such as facilitation and competition. We examined the effects of frequent human trampling disturbances on alpine plant communities in Switzerland, focusing on the elevational range of the widely distributed cushion plant Silene acaulis and the interactions of this facilitator species with other plants. Examining size distributions and densities, we found that disturbance appears to favor individual Silene growth at middle elevations. However, it has negative effects at the population level, as evidenced by a reduction in population density and reproductive indices. Disturbance synergistically interacts with the effects of elevation to reduce species richness at low and high elevations, an effect not mitigated by Silene. In fact, we find predominantly competitive interactions, both by Silene on its hosted and neighboring species and by neighboring (but not hosted) species on Silene. Our results indicate that disturbance can be beneficial for Silene individual performance, potentially through changes in its neighboring species community. However, possible reduced recruitment in disturbed areas could eventually lead to population declines. While other studies have shown that light to moderate disturbances can maintain high species diversity, our results emphasize that heavier disturbance reduces species richness, diversity, as well as percent cover, and adversely affects cushion plants and that these effects are not substantially reduced by plant-plant interactions. Heavily disturbed alpine systems could therefore be at greater risk for upward encroachment of lower elevation species in a warming world.}, } @article {pmid30250671, year = {2018}, author = {Vasconcelos, TS and do Nascimento, BTM and Prado, VHM}, title = {Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {7894-7906}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4357}, pmid = {30250671}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.}, } @article {pmid30248871, year = {2018}, author = {Ma, X and Zhao, C and Tao, H and Zhu, J and Kundzewicz, ZW}, title = {Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1496-1508}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.253}, pmid = {30248871}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an essential component of Earth's global energy balance and water cycle. The Paris Agreement aspires to limit global mean surface warming to <2 °C and no >1.5 °C relative to preindustrial levels. However, it is uncertain how this global level will impact the shifts in the extents of sandy areas caused by global desertification. Using Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) datasets and advection-aridity models, we investigated the spatiotemporal features of ETa in sandy areas in northern China under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. The four climate models indicated significant increases in ETa in arid areas across northwestern China. Over time, the ETa value under only the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) emission scenario increased towards a plateau and significantly increased in the other three emission scenarios (P < 0.01) under global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. In terms of the spatial variations, ETa showed an increasing trend in all seasons except winter. The maximum ETa was 84.61 mm, and high values were mainly located in the southeast of the study area. Precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed good correlations with ETa in the sandy areas in northern China. The sandy areas in northern China showed decreasing trends (0.45 km2/a) from 1980 to 2015. Under global warming of 2.0 °C (2040-2059) relative to that of 1.5 °C (2020-2039), the area of sandy land will increase at a rate of 27.04 km2 per decade (P < 0.01); after this period, the sandy land area in northern China may gradually stabilize, with a trend of 0.02 km2/a (2047-2100). Early efforts to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal could therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial global desertification and the related impacts.}, } @article {pmid30248832, year = {2018}, author = {Ishida, K and Ercan, A and Trinh, T and Kavvas, ML and Ohara, N and Carr, K and Anderson, ML}, title = {Analysis of future climate change impacts on snow distribution over mountainous watersheds in Northern California by means of a physically-based snow distribution model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1065-1082}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.250}, pmid = {30248832}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on snow distribution through the 21st century were investigated over three mountainous watersheds in Northern California by means of a physically-based snow distribution model. The future climate conditions during a 90-year future period from water year 2010 to 2100 were obtained from 13 future climate projection realizations from two GCMs (ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four SRES scenarios (A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1). The 13 future climate projection realizations were dynamically downscaled at 9 km resolution by a regional climate model. Using the downscaled variables based on the 13 future climate projection realizations, snow distribution over the Feather, Yuba, and American River watersheds (FRW, YRW, and ARW) was projected by means of the physically-based snow model. FRW and YRW watersheds cover the main source areas of the California State Water Project (SWP), and ARW is one of the key watersheds in the California Central Valley Project (CVP). SWP and CVP are of great importance as they provide and regulate much of the California's water for drinking, irrigation, flood control, environmental, and hydro-power generation purposes. Ensemble average snow distribution over the study watersheds was calculated over the 13 realizations and for each scenario, revealing differences among the scenarios. While the snow reduction through the 21st century was similar between A1B and A2, the snow reduction was milder for B1, and more severe for A1FI. A significant downward trend was detected in the snowpack over nearly the entire watershed areas for all the ensemble average results.}, } @article {pmid30248829, year = {2018}, author = {Liang, J and Xing, W and Zeng, G and Li, X and Peng, Y and Li, X and Gao, X and He, X}, title = {Where will threatened migratory birds go under climate change? Implications for China's national nature reserves.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1040-1047}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.196}, pmid = {30248829}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change, regarded as one of the major threats to biodiversity and ecosystems, can impact on the distribution and survival of migratory birds. To investigate the threats of climate change to threatened migratory bird distributions, we used species distribution model (SDM) and climatic data under current and future climate scenarios to predict future changes in species distributions and how the geographic distribution of these threatened birds may respond to climate change by 2050. Our results show the hotspots for all species may remain in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, while more species may dwell in the coastal regions of the Bohai Gulf and the Yellow Sea in the future. Our findings show that the percentage of all species distributions or hotspots for all threatened species covered by national nature reserves (NNRs) in China remain low by 2050. Thus, we propose that China should increase and expand reserves in eastern China. Significantly, we emphasize the creation of protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites in the world and recommend that China should (1) strengthen the cooperation with neighboring countries to share maximum species occurrence data (especially the threatened species), (2) overlay maps of individual species for each taxon to assess the efficiency of coastal nature reserves and predict the hotspots shift under climate change, (3) trade off urban development and ecosystem stability to create new and dynamic protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites, (4) appeal for long-term protection of ecosystem stability to achieve sustainable development in the world.}, } @article {pmid30245745, year = {2017}, author = {Silva, RA and West, JJ and Lamarque, JF and Shindell, DT and Collins, WJ and Faluvegi, G and Folberth, GA and Horowitz, LW and Nagashima, T and Naik, V and Rumbold, ST and Sudo, K and Takemura, T and Bergmann, D and Cameron-Smith, P and Doherty, RM and Josse, B and MacKenzie, IA and Stevenson, DS and Zeng, G}, title = {FUTURE GLOBAL MORTALITY FROM CHANGES IN AIR POLLUTION ATTRIBUTABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {647-651}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate3354}, pmid = {30245745}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {R21 ES022600/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, } @article {pmid30244322, year = {2018}, author = {Lee, SW and Lee, K and Lim, B}, title = {Effects of climate change-related heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1611-6}, pmid = {30244322}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {KMA2018-00122//Korea Meteorological Administration/ ; }, abstract = {This study assessed the potential impact of heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea; as such, stress is expected to increase due to climate change. To quantify the future loss of labor productivity, we used the relationship between the wet-bulb globe temperature and work-rest cycles with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 as the climate change scenarios. If only climate factors are considered, then future labor productivity is expected to decline in most regions from the middle of the twenty-first century onwards (2041-2070). From the late twenty-first century onwards, the productivity of heavy outdoor work could decline by 26.1% from current levels under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. Further analysis showed that regional differences in labor characteristics and the working population had noteworthy impacts on future labor productivity losses. The heat stress caused by climate change thus has a potentially substantial negative impact on outdoor labor productivity in South Korea.}, } @article {pmid30240399, year = {2018}, author = {Rheuban, JE and Doney, SC and Cooley, SR and Hart, DR}, title = {Projected impacts of future climate change, ocean acidification, and management on the US Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203536}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0203536}, pmid = {30240399}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Ocean acidification has the potential to significantly impact both aquaculture and wild-caught mollusk fisheries around the world. In this work, we build upon a previously published integrated assessment model of the US Atlantic Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery to determine the possible future of the fishery under a suite of climate, economic, biological, and management scenarios. We developed a 4x4x4x4 hypercube scenario framework that resulted in 256 possible combinations of future scenarios. The study highlights the potential impacts of ocean acidification and management for a subset of future climate scenarios, with a high CO2 emissions case (RCP8.5) and lower CO2 emissions and climate mitigation case (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 and the highest impact and management scenario, ocean acidification has the potential to reduce sea scallop biomass by approximately 13% by the end of century; however, the lesser impact scenarios cause very little change. Under RCP8.5, sea scallop biomass may decline by more than 50% by the end of century, leading to subsequent declines in industry landings and revenue. Management-set catch limits improve the outcomes of the fishery under both climate scenarios, and the addition of a 10% area closure increases future biomass by more than 25% under the highest ocean acidification impacts. However, increased management still does not stop the projected long-term decline of the fishery under ocean acidification scenarios. Given our incomplete understanding of acidification impacts on P. magellanicus, these declines, along with the high value of the industry, suggest population-level effects of acidification should be a clear research priority. Projections described in this manuscript illustrate both the potential impacts of ocean acidification under a business-as-usual and a moderately strong climate-policy scenario. We also illustrate the importance of fisheries management targets in improving the long-term outcome of the P. magellanicus fishery under potential global change.}, } @article {pmid30239067, year = {2018}, author = {Valencia, E and Gross, N and Quero, JL and Carmona, CP and Ochoa, V and Gozalo, B and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Dumack, K and Hamonts, K and Singh, BK and Bonkowski, M and Maestre, FT}, title = {Cascading effects from plants to soil microorganisms explain how plant species richness and simulated climate change affect soil multifunctionality.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14440}, pmid = {30239067}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {CGL2013-44661-R//Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, BIOMOD project/ ; 242658//European Research Council under the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC (BIOCOM)/ ; IUT20-29//Estonian Ministry of Education and Research/ ; 16-15012S//Czech Science Foundation/ ; 2017-T2/AMB-5406//Comunidad de Madrid/ ; 647038//European Research Council/International ; FP7-609398//European Research Council/International ; MOBJD13//European Research Council/International ; //Seventh Framework Programme/ ; //Estonian Research Council/ ; //European Regional Development Fund/ ; //Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; 170104634//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Despite their importance, how plant communities and soil microorganisms interact to determine the capacity of ecosystems to provide multiple functions simultaneously (multifunctionality) under climate change is poorly known. We conducted a common garden experiment using grassland species to evaluate how plant functional structure and soil microbial (bacteria and protists) diversity and abundance regulate soil multifunctionality responses to joint changes in plant species richness (one, three and six species) and simulated climate change (3°C warming and 35% rainfall reduction). The effects of species richness and climate on soil multifunctionality were indirectly driven via changes in plant functional structure and their relationships with the abundance and diversity of soil bacteria and protists. More specifically, warming selected for the larger and most productive plant species, increasing the average size within communities and leading to reductions in functional plant diversity. These changes increased the total abundance of bacteria that, in turn, increased that of protists, ultimately promoting soil multifunctionality. Our work suggests that cascading effects between plant functional traits and the abundance of multitrophic soil organisms largely regulate the response of soil multifunctionality to simulated climate change, and ultimately provides novel experimental insights into the mechanisms underlying the effects of biodiversity and climate change on ecosystem functioning.}, } @article {pmid30238321, year = {2018}, author = {Barnes, CS}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Pollen and Respiratory Disease.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {59}, doi = {10.1007/s11882-018-0813-7}, pmid = {30238321}, issn = {1534-6315}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: A warming world will impact everyone and everything. The practice of allergic and respiratory disease will not be excepted. All the impacts will be impossible to anticipate. This review is intended to discuss significant factors related to individuals with allergic and respiratory disease.

RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings include the increased growth of allergenic plants in response to higher carbon dioxide levels and warmer temperatures. This also contributes to the increased production of pollen as well as the appearance of allergenic species in new climactic areas. Stinging insects will extend their ranges into northern areas where they have not previously been a problem. The shift and extension of pollen seasons with warmer springs and later frosts have already been observed. Recent severe hurricanes and flooding events may be just the harbinger of increasing damp housing exposure related to sea level rise. Evidence is accumulating that indicates the expected higher number of ozone alert days and increased pollution in populated areas is bringing increases in pollen potency. Finally, increased exposure to smoke and particles from wild fires, resulting from heat waves, will contribute to the general increase in respiratory disease. The practice of allergy being closely aligned with environmental conditions will be especially impacted. Allergists should consider increasing educational activities aimed at making patients more aware of air quality conditions.}, } @article {pmid30236344, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Public Health and Implications for Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {Annals of emergency medicine}, volume = {72}, number = {4}, pages = {e49}, doi = {10.1016/j.annemergmed.2018.07.033}, pmid = {30236344}, issn = {1097-6760}, } @article {pmid30235646, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, P and Qiao, Y and Schineider, M and Chang, J and Mutzner, R and Fluixá-Sanmartín, J and Yang, Z and Fu, R and Chen, X and Cai, L and Lu, J}, title = {Using a hierarchical model framework to assess climate change and hydropower operation impacts on the habitat of an imperiled fish in the Jinsha River, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {646}, number = {}, pages = {1624-1638}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.318}, pmid = {30235646}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and hydropower operations affect hydrological regimes at regional basin scales and impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. The present study proposes a hierarchical modeling framework for predicting and analyzing the impacts of climate change and hydropower on fish habitats. The approach couples multi-scale climate, hydrological, water temperature, hydrodynamic and habitat suitability models and was applied to a reach of the Jinsha River. Flow discharge and water temperature were predicted in the study area for a baseline scenario and three climate change scenarios, and each considered the presence and absence of impacts caused by hydropower operation. The impacts of flow discharge and water temperature variations on spawning and juvenile Coreius guichenoti, an imperiled warm-water fish in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), were evaluated using a fuzzy logic-based habitat model. The results showed that habitat suitability and available usable area for the fish increased due to climate change, and water temperature rising was the main influencing factor. Water temperature decrease induced by hydropower operation in the spawning periods resulted in the reduction of available habitat area. However, climate change reduced the negative effects generated by hydropower operation, and the available habitat area for the fish would still be expected to increase under the combined impacts of climate change and hydropower operation in the future. It is predicted that water warming, as a result of climate change, is likely to eliminate the spawning postponement effect generated by hydropower operation on Coreius guichenoti as well as other warm-water fish species in the JRB. In contrast, water warming induced by climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of hydropower operation on the spawning activity of cold-water fish species in the JRB. The present study provides a scheme to predict the impacts of climate change and hydropower on other organisms in river ecosystems. The results are beneficial for the development of long-term and adaptive conservation and restoration measures for aquatic ecosystems.}, } @article {pmid30228379, year = {2018}, author = {Fernández-Gómez, B and Díez, B and Polz, MF and Arroyo, JI and Alfaro, FD and Marchandon, G and Sanhueza, C and Farías, L and Trefault, N and Marquet, PA and Molina-Montenegro, MA and Sylvander, P and Snoeijs-Leijonmalm, P}, title = {Bacterial community structure in a sympagic habitat expanding with global warming: brackish ice brine at 85-90 °N.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41396-018-0268-9}, pmid = {30228379}, issn = {1751-7370}, abstract = {Larger volumes of sea ice have been thawing in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) during the last decades than during the past 800,000 years. Brackish brine (fed by meltwater inside the ice) is an expanding sympagic habitat in summer all over the CAO. We report for the first time the structure of bacterial communities in this brine. They are composed of psychrophilic extremophiles, many of them related to phylotypes known from Arctic and Antarctic regions. Community structure displayed strong habitat segregation between brackish ice brine (IB; salinity 2.4-9.6) and immediate sub-ice seawater (SW; salinity 33.3-34.9), expressed at all taxonomic levels (class to genus), by dominant phylotypes as well as by the rare biosphere, and with specialists dominating IB and generalists SW. The dominant phylotypes in IB were related to Candidatus Aquiluna and Flavobacterium, those in SW to Balneatrix and ZD0405, and those shared between the habitats to Halomonas, Polaribacter and Shewanella. A meta-analysis for the oligotrophic CAO showed a pattern with Flavobacteriia dominating in melt ponds, Flavobacteriia and Gammaproteobacteria in solid ice cores, Flavobacteriia, Gamma- and Betaproteobacteria, and Actinobacteria in brine, and Alphaproteobacteria in SW. Based on our results, we expect that the roles of Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria in the CAO will increase with global warming owing to the increased production of meltwater in summer. IB contained three times more phylotypes than SW and may act as an insurance reservoir for bacterial diversity that can act as a recruitment base when environmental conditions change.}, } @article {pmid30228328, year = {2018}, author = {Morton, A}, title = {Australia has no climate-change policy - again.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7723}, pages = {293-294}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06675-9}, pmid = {30228328}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30228131, year = {2018}, author = {Kearney, GD and Jones, K and Bell, RA and Swinker, M and Allen, TR}, title = {Climate Change and Public Health through the Lens of Rural, Eastern North Carolina.}, journal = {North Carolina medical journal}, volume = {79}, number = {5}, pages = {270-277}, doi = {10.18043/ncm.79.5.270}, pmid = {30228131}, issn = {0029-2559}, abstract = {BACKGROUND Recognizing that health outcomes are associated with climate threats is important and requires increased attention by health care providers and policymakers. The primary goal of this report is to provide information related to the public health threats of climate change, while identifying climate-sensitive populations primarily in rural, Eastern North Carolina.METHODS Publicly available data was used to evaluate regional (eg, Eastern, Piedmont, and Western) and county level socio-vulnerability characteristics of population groups in North Carolina, including: percent of persons living in poverty, percent of non-white persons, percent of persons under 18 years living in poverty, percent of elderly people living in poverty, percent of persons with a disability, and number of primary care physicians. One-way ANOVA was used to calculate and compare mean value estimates of population socio-vulnerability variables in Eastern North Carolina with Piedmont and Western regions.RESULTS Across all regional categories, the eastern part of the state had considerably higher averages than the state for percent of persons living in poverty (17.2%), percent of non-white persons (13.3%), percent of persons under 18 years old living in poverty (24.9%), percent of elderly people living in poverty (10.0%), and percent of persons with a disability (13.3%). Overwhelmingly, more counties in Eastern North Carolina had fewer primary care physicians (per 10,000 persons) than the state average (8.6 per 10,000 persons).CONCLUSION Eastern North Carolina has a disproportionally higher percent of population groups that are vulnerable to the threats of climate change. The need for health care providers to understand and communicate the challenges faced by rural, vulnerable population groups is of great public health importance. Communicating these health risks to policy makers is of equal importance.}, } @article {pmid30225375, year = {2018}, author = {Roth, V and Lemann, T and Zeleke, G and Subhatu, AT and Nigussie, TK and Hurni, H}, title = {Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e00771}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00771}, pmid = {30225375}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Drawing on hydrology, rainfall, and climatic data from the past 25 years, this article investigates the effects of climate change on water resources in the transnational Blue Nile Basin (BNB). The primary focus is on determining the long-term temporal and seasonal changes in the flows of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia at the border to Sudan. This is important because the Blue Nile is the main tributary to the Nile river, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt. Therefore, to begin with long-term trends in hydrological time series were detected by means of both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using several sub-basins and new high-resolution land use and soil maps. Future climate change impacts were projected using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions based on three different climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Projected time series were analysed for changes in rainfall and streamflow trends. Climate change scenario modelling suggested that the precipitation will increase from 7% to 48% and that streamflow from the BNB could increase by 21% to 97%. The results provide a basis for evaluating future impacts of climate change on the upper Blue Nile River (Abay River). This is the main river basin contributing to the Nile and a source of water for millions of people in Sudan and Egypt, downstream from Ethiopia. Three models (CCCMA, CNRM, MRI) were applied in this research, within two future time periods (2046-2064 and 2081-2099) and one scenario (A1B). The Abay Basin was divided into seven sub-basins, six of which were used as inlets to the lowest basin at the border to Sudan. The above-mentioned results show that under current climate change scenarios there is a strong seasonal shift to be expected from the present main rainfall season (June to September) to an earlier onset from January to May with less pronounced peaks but longer duration of the rainfall season. This has direct consequences on the streamflow of the Blue Nile, which is connected to the rainfall season and therefore has direct effects on the people living in the sphere of influence of the Nile River.}, } @article {pmid30224086, year = {2018}, author = {Rothäusler, E and Rugiu, L and Jormalainen, V}, title = {Forecast climate change conditions sustain growth and physiology but hamper reproduction in range-margin populations of a foundation rockweed species.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.014}, pmid = {30224086}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Intensifying environmental changes due to climate change affect marine species worldwide. Herein, we experimentally tested if the combination of forecasted warming and hyposalinity adversely affected growth, receptacle formation, and photosynthesis of three marginal populations of the brown alga Fucus from the northern Baltic Sea. Growth was not impaired by the projected consequences of climate change but genotypes varied in their responses, suggesting existence of genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity. Climate change further prevented receptacle formation, implying that Fucus fail to reproduce sexually. Photosynthesis was not affected by climate change but varied among populations. Our results show that Fucus populations photosynthesized, grew, and survived well under the projected climate change but their sexual reproduction ceased. This suggests that the marginal populations tested herein are resilient to future conditions but only if asexual reproduction enables them to proliferate.}, } @article {pmid30216409, year = {2018}, author = {Panchen, ZA and Johnston, MO}, title = {Shifts in pollen release envelope differ between genera with non-uniform climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {105}, number = {9}, pages = {1568-1576}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1156}, pmid = {30216409}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Killam Trusts/ ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Plant phenological responses to climate change now constitute one of the best studied areas of the ecological impacts of climate change. Flowering time responses to climate change of wind-pollinated species have, however, been less well studied. A novel source of flowering time data for wind-pollinated species is allergen monitoring records.

METHODS: We studied the male flowering time response to climatic variables of two wind-pollinated genera, Betula (Betulaceae) and Populus (Salicaceae), using pollen count records over a 17-year period.

KEY RESULTS: We found that changes in the pollen release envelope differed between the two genera. Over the study period, the only month with a significant rise in temperature was April, resulting in the duration of pollen release of the April-flowering Populus to shorten and the start and peak of the May-flowering Betula to advance. The quantity of pollen released by Betula has increased and was related to increases in the previous year's August precipitation, while the quantity of pollen released by Populus has not changed and was related to the previous year's summer and autumn temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that taxa differ in the reproductive consequences of environmental change. Differing shifts in phenology among species may be related to different rates of change in climatic variables in different months of the year. While our study only considers two genera, the results underscore the importance of understanding non-uniform intra-annual variation in climate when studying the ecological implications of climate change.}, } @article {pmid30215727, year = {2018}, author = {Ediriweera, DS and Diggle, PJ and Kasturiratne, A and Pathmeswaran, A and Gunawardena, NK and Jayamanne, SF and Isbister, GK and Dawson, A and Lalloo, DG and de Silva, HJ}, title = {Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: the potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyy188}, pmid = {30215727}, issn = {1464-3685}, abstract = {Background: Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail.

Methods: A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165 665 individuals living in 44 136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year. Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month, taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and of recall bias amongst survey respondents.

Results: Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence is highest during November-December followed by March-May and August, but this can vary between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk factor. Low relative-humidity levels are associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate-change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite burden of 31.3% (95% confidence interval: 10.7-55.7) during the next 25-50 years.

Conclusions: Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation. Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower-than-expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.}, } @article {pmid30214693, year = {2018}, author = {Jooste, BS and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Challenges to belief systems in the context of climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {508}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.508}, pmid = {30214693}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article focuses on the social aspects of climate change and explores the interrelationship between belief systems and adaptation. The links and interaction between external and internal realities are examined from the perspective of contextual vulnerability, with a focus on the multifaceted structure of belief systems. The aim was to determine those challenges regarding climate change adaptation that are caused by a community's belief system and to make recommendations to overcome them. Diverse perceptions of climate change and beliefs from three townships in the North-West Province of South Africa were collected and analysed using Q-methodology, finding five distinct worldview narratives. These narratives were named naturalist collectivist, religious, religious determinist, activist collectivist and structural thinker. It is recommended that policymakers aim to address diverse views and should be informed by factors that increase resistance to belief revision. Information should be framed in ways that foster the perception of internal control, are clearly evidence based and encourage a desire to learn more.}, } @article {pmid30214380, year = {2018}, author = {Patella, V and Florio, G and Magliacane, D and Giuliano, A and Crivellaro, MA and Di Bartolomeo, D and Genovese, A and Palmieri, M and Postiglione, A and Ridolo, E and Scaletti, C and Ventura, MT and Zollo, A and , }, title = {Urban air pollution and climate change: "The Decalogue: Allergy Safe Tree" for allergic and respiratory diseases care.}, journal = {Clinical and molecular allergy : CMA}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {20}, doi = {10.1186/s12948-018-0098-3}, pmid = {30214380}, issn = {1476-7961}, abstract = {Background: According to the World Health Organization, air pollution is closely associated with climate change and, in particular, with global warming. In addition to melting of ice and snow, rising sea level, and flooding of coastal areas, global warming is leading to a tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems. Moreover, the effects of air pollution on airway and lung diseases are well documented as reported by the World Allergy Organization.

Methods: Scientific literature was searched for studies investigating the effect of the interaction between air pollution and climate change on allergic and respiratory diseases.

Results: Since 1990s, a multitude of articles and reviews have been published on this topic, with many studies confirming that the warming of our planet is caused by the "greenhouse effect" as a result of increased emission of "greenhouse" gases. Air pollution is also closely linked to global warming: the emission of hydrocarbon combustion products leads to increased concentrations of biological allergens such as pollens, generating a mixture of these particles called particulate matter (PM). The concept is that global warming is linked to the emission of hydrocarbon combustion products, since both carbon dioxide and heat increase pollen emission into the atmosphere, and all these particles make up PM10. However, the understanding of the mechanisms by which PM affects human health is still limited. Therefore, several studies are trying to determine the causes of global warming. There is also evidence that increased concentrations of air pollutants and pollens can activate inflammatory mediators in the airways. Our Task Force has prepared a Decalogue of rules addressing public administrators, which aims to limit the amount of allergenic pollen in the air without sacrificing public green areas.

Conclusions: Several studies underscore the significant risks of global warming on human health due to increasing levels of air pollution. The impact of climate change on respiratory diseases appears well documented. The last decades have seen a rise in the concentrations of pollens and pollutants in the air. This rise parallels the increase in the number of people presenting with allergic symptoms (e.g., allergic rhinitis, conjunctivitis, and asthma), who often require emergency medical care. Our hope is that scientists from different disciplines will work together with institutions, pharmaceutical companies and lay organizations to limit the adverse health effects of air pollution and global warming.}, } @article {pmid30213661, year = {2018}, author = {Kumar, S and Bhavya, PS and Ramesh, R and Gupta, GVM and Chiriboga, F and Singh, A and Karunasagar, I and Rai, A and Rehnstam-Holm, AS and Edler, L and Godhe, A}, title = {Nitrogen uptake potential under different temperature-salinity conditions: Implications for nitrogen cycling under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.001}, pmid = {30213661}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {As projected by climate change models, increase in sea surface temperature and precipitation in the future may alter nutrient cycling in the coastal regions due to potential changes in phytoplankton community structure and their ability to assimilate nitrogen (N) and carbon (C). An experiment simulating different temperature and salinity conditions (28°C-35 ambient conditions, 28ºC-31, 31ºC-35 and 31ºC-31) in mesocosms containing 1000 L of coastal water from the Arabian Sea was performed and N uptake rates were measured using 15N tracer technique on 2nd, 5th, 7th and 10th day of the experiment. The results show that, under all conditions, the total N (NO3- + NH4+) uptake rates were lower in the beginning and on the final day of the tracer experiment, while it peaked during middle, consistent with chlorophyll a concentrations. Total N uptake rate was significantly lower (p = 0.003) under ambient temperature-lower salinity condition (28ºC-31) than the others. This indicates that lowering of salinity in coastal regions due to excessive rainfall in the future may affect the N uptake potential of the phytoplankton, which may change the regional C and N budget.}, } @article {pmid30212791, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Y and Liu, G and Ye, C and Liu, W}, title = {Bacterial community and climate change implication affected the diversity and abundance of antibiotic resistance genes in wetlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {361}, number = {}, pages = {283-293}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2018.09.002}, pmid = {30212791}, issn = {1873-3336}, abstract = {Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have been identified as emerging pollutants in the environment. However, little information is available for ARGs in natural wetlands at high altitude. In this study, we investigated 32 wetlands across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with the variation of wetland types, altitude, and environmental factors, to assess the determinant factor of ARGs in this area. ARGs were detected in all the wetlands, ranged from 1.80 × 105 to 1.35 × 107 copies per gram of soils. The ARGs in wetland soils were diverse and abundant, and varied from each site, but the spatial geographical distance did not influence the ARG profile. The mobile genetic elements in wetlands ranged from 3.13 × 103 to 1.02 × 106 copies per gram of soil, indicating the low abundance of mobile genetic elements suggests a lower transfer rate of ARGs between bacteria in the Plateau. Bacterial community composition was the main driver in shaping the ARG diversity and geographic distribution. Soil moisture and temperature were positively correlated with ARG abundance in this region. These results not only provide a better understanding of the background levels of ARGs in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but also shed light on the influence of climate change and increased human activities on the distribution of ARGs.}, } @article {pmid30209380, year = {2018}, author = {Sutton, R}, title = {Attributing extreme weather to climate change is not a done deal.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7722}, pages = {177}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06631-7}, pmid = {30209380}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30209049, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, M}, title = {Global hunger grows amid conflict and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {362}, number = {}, pages = {k3893}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k3893}, pmid = {30209049}, issn = {1756-1833}, } @article {pmid30208067, year = {2018}, author = {Vieira, KS and Montenegro, PFG and Santana, GG and Vieira, WLDS}, title = {Effect of climate change on distribution of species of common horned frogs in South America.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0202813}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0202813}, pmid = {30208067}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Our main objectives were to verify the effect of climate change on distribution of frogs of the family Ceratophryidae and if the legal protection areas in South America will be effective or ineffective in ensuring the preservation of the toads this family in coming decades. The results showed that in the last 140,000 years, species of the family Ceratophryidae expanded and contracted their distribution areas, which naturally reflected the climate and vegetation changes in the Quaternary of South America. The maps of projections showed that changes in temperature determined the area of habitat suitability of 63.7% of the species of ceratophrids both during the last interglacial period and nowadays, and it seems that this will also be the case for the next 62 years. Given the current concerns about future extinctions in the tropics, it is prudent to examine, with special attention, the effects of climate fluctuations on the diversity and distribution of species, because the current estimates of reduction in biodiversity caused by habitat destruction and emission of greenhouse gases are comparable to estimated reductions during glacial intervals.}, } @article {pmid30206900, year = {2018}, author = {Anisimov, O and Orttung, R}, title = {Climate change in Northern Russia through the prism of public perception.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-1096-x}, pmid = {30206900}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {14-17-00037//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {This article fills a major hole in the Western literature on climate change perceptions by reporting detailed data from Russia. While Northern Russia demonstrates high rates of climate change, regional adaptation policies are yet to be established. Complicating the problem, how the Russian public perceives climate change remains poorly known. This study synthesizes data from observations, modeling, and sociological surveys, and gives insight into the public perceptions of current and projected future changes in climate. Results indicate that, similar to what is found in the Western context, unusual weather patterns and single extreme events have a deeper impact than long-term climate change on public perceptions. The majority of the population considers climate and environmental changes locally, does not associate them with global drivers, and is not prepared to act on them. Accordingly, even the best designed climate policies cannot be implemented in Northern Russia, because there is no public demand for them. To address this situation, climate scientists should work to educate members of the public about basic scientific concepts so that they begin to demand better climate policies.}, } @article {pmid30206398, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Caches of mummified penguins warn of climate-change impacts.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7722}, pages = {152}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06181-y}, pmid = {30206398}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30205341, year = {2019}, author = {Niu, Y and Yang, S and Zhou, J and Chu, B and Ma, S and Zhu, H and Hua, L}, title = {Vegetation distribution along mountain environmental gradient predicts shifts in plant community response to climate change in alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {505-514}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.390}, pmid = {30205341}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Plants are particularly sensitive to climate change in alpine ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau. The various mountain micro-climates provide a natural gradient for space-for-time substitution research that plant responses to climate change. In this study, we surveyed the plant community in term of species composition, diversity and biomass across 189 sites on a hill of the Tibetan Plateau and analysed the individual and integrated effects of soil temperature and moisture on the plant community. The results showed that, at the quadrat scale, there were decrease in richness of 1.08 species for every 1 °C increase in soil temperature and 3.56 species for every 10% decrease in soil moisture. The integrated effects of increasing soil temperature and decreasing moisture are expected to lead to a rapid decrease in species richness. Biomass had no significant correlation with soil temperature but significantly decreased with soil moisture decreasing (p < 0.01). Biomass would decrease when soil moisture was below 20%, no matter how the change of soil temperature. We also found that gramineae and perennial forbs were sensitive to climate change. With soil temperature increased, the proportion of gramineae increased, whereas the proportion of perennial forbs decreased. The integrated effects of soil temperature increasing and moisture decreasing caused a shift from sedge-controlled to gramineae-controlled communities in alpine meadow. This study not only enhances our understanding of mountain plant community dynamics under climate change, but also predicts the shift of vegetation response to climate change on high-elevation alpine meadow.}, } @article {pmid30203344, year = {2018}, author = {Cynk, KW}, title = {The process of climate change in mass media discourse using the example of Polish and international editions of "Newsweek" magazine.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {31}, pages = {31439-31449}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3138-0}, pmid = {30203344}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The main objective of the article is to conduct a critical media discourse analysis as presented in the Polish and international editions of the "Newsweek" magazine in the years 2001-2006 and 2012-2016; the subject of which was climate change. The introduction provides the definitions of the key terms, such as: the greenhouse effect and critical discourse analysis (CDA). The theoretical part presents the most important assumptions of the CDA and presents a characteristic of the weekly. The results of the conducted quantitative and qualitative analysis partially lead to varying conclusions. Based on the CDA, the hypothesis was assumed that more attention was provided to climate change in the international (English) edition of "Newsweek", than in the Polish-language edition. Rejected in turn was the hypothesis, according to which, more importance to climate change and their repercussions was provided in the discourse within the last 5 years of publication of the weekly than in the discourse from the years 2001-2006. As a result of comparison of both discourses, the disturbing fact that media discourse did not present and encourage among the readers an active stance in favour of the climate was noticed. It is the task of this influential weekly, the message of which reaches many people, not only to provide knowledge and shape specific values or view, but also to encourage and popularise attitudes in favour of the climate. If man wants to continue to live on earth, then one of their goals is to modify the form of discourse by entities responsible for its form.}, } @article {pmid30202656, year = {2018}, author = {Shabani, F and Kumar, L and Hamdan Saif Al Shidi, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change on infestations of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) on date palms in Oman.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5545}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.5545}, pmid = {30202656}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and is likely to affect species in the future. Our study aimed to (i) demonstrate the linkage between spatial climatic variability and the current and historical Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) distribution in Oman and (ii) model areas becoming highly suitable for the pest in the future. The Dubas bug is a pest of date palm trees that can reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios in Oman. Projections were made in three species distribution models; generalized linear model, maximum entropy, boosted regression tree using of four global circulation models (GCMs) (a) HadGEM2, (b) CCSM4, (c) MIROC5 and (d) HadGEM2-AO, under four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We utilized the most commonly used threshold of maximum sensitivity + specificity for classifying outputs. Results indicated that northern Oman is currently at great risk of Dubas bug infestations (highly suitable climatically) and the infestations level will remain high in 2050 and 2070. Other non-climatic integrated pest management methods may be greater value than climatic parameters for monitoring infestation levels, and may provide more effective strategies to manage Dubas bug infestations in Oman. This would ensure the continuing competitiveness of Oman in the global date fruit market and preserve national yields.}, } @article {pmid30201967, year = {2018}, author = {Froehlich, HE and Gentry, RR and Halpern, BS}, title = {Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology & evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0669-1}, pmid = {30201967}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Climate change is an immediate and future threat to food security globally. The consequences for fisheries and agriculture production potential are well studied, yet the possible outcomes for aquaculture (that is, aquatic farming)-one of the fastest growing food sectors on the planet-remain a major gap in scientific understanding. With over one-third of aquaculture produced in marine waters and this proportion increasing, it is critical to anticipate new opportunities and challenges in marine production under climate change. Here, we model and map the effect of warming ocean conditions (Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 8.5) on marine aquaculture production potential over the next century, based on thermal tolerance and growth data of 180 cultured finfish and bivalve species. We find heterogeneous patterns of gains and losses, but an overall greater probability of declines worldwide. Accounting for multiple drivers of species growth, including shifts in temperature, chlorophyll and ocean acidification, reveals potentially greater declines in bivalve aquaculture compared with finfish production. This study addresses a missing component in food security research and sustainable development planning by identifying regions that will face potentially greater climate change challenges and resilience with regards to marine aquaculture in the coming decades. Understanding the scale and magnitude of future increases and reductions in aquaculture potential is critical for designing effective and efficient use and protection of the oceans, and ultimately for feeding the planet sustainably.}, } @article {pmid30200609, year = {2018}, author = {Ebi, KL and Boyer, C and Bowen, KJ and Frumkin, H and Hess, J}, title = {Monitoring and Evaluation Indicators for Climate Change-Related Health Impacts, Risks, Adaptation, and Resilience.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15091943}, pmid = {30200609}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change poses a range of current and future health risks that health professionals need to understand, track, and manage. However, conventional monitoring and evaluation (M&E) as practiced in the health sector, including the use of indicators, does not adequately serve this purpose. Improved indicators are needed in three broad categories: (1) vulnerability and exposure to climate-related hazards; (2) current impacts and projected risks; and (3) adaptation processes and health system resilience. These indicators are needed at the population level and at the health systems level (including clinical care and public health). Selected indicators must be sensitive, valid, and useful. And they must account for uncertainties about the magnitude and pattern of climate change; the broad range of upstream drivers of climate-sensitive health outcomes; and the complexities of adaptation itself, including institutional learning and knowledge management to inform iterative risk management. Barriers and constraints to implementing such indicators must be addressed, and lessons learned need to be added to the evidence base. This paper describes an approach to climate and health indicators, including characteristics of the indicators, implementation, and research needs.}, } @article {pmid30200277, year = {2018}, author = {Chersich, MF and Wright, CY and Venter, F and Rees, H and Scorgie, F and Erasmus, B}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15091884}, pmid = {30200277}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Given its associated burden of disease, climate change in South Africa could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent health-sector response. The growing impact of climate change has major implications for South Africa, especially for the numerous vulnerable groups in the country. We systematically reviewed the literature by searching PubMed and Web of Science. Of the 820 papers screened, 34 were identified that assessed the impacts of climate change on health in the country. Most papers covered effects of heat on health or on infectious diseases (20/34; 59%). We found that extreme weather events are the most noticeable effects to date, especially droughts in the Western Cape, but rises in vector-borne diseases are gaining prominence. Climate aberration is also linked in myriad ways with outbreaks of food and waterborne diseases, and possibly with the recent Listeria epidemic. The potential impacts of climate change on mental health may compound the multiple social stressors that already beset the populace. Climate change heightens the pre-existing vulnerabilities of women, fishing communities, rural subsistence farmers and those living in informal settlements. Further gender disparities, eco-migration and social disruptions may undermine the prevention-but also treatment-of HIV. Our findings suggest that focused research and effective use of surveillance data are required to monitor climate change's impacts; traditional strengths of the country's health sector. The health sector, hitherto a fringe player, should assume a greater leadership role in promoting policies that protect the public's health, address inequities and advance the country's commitments to climate change accords.}, } @article {pmid30199690, year = {2019}, author = {Trauernicht, C}, title = {Vegetation-Rainfall interactions reveal how climate variability and climate change alter spatial patterns of wildland fire probability on Big Island, Hawaii.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {459-469}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.347}, pmid = {30199690}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The area burned annually by wildland fire in Hawaii has increased fourfold in recent decades. The archipelago's novel fuel types and climatic heterogeneity pose significant challenges for fire risk assessment and fire management. Probability-based fire occurrence models using historical wildfire records provide a means to assess and attribute fire risk in regions of the world like Hawaii where investment in fire science is limited. This research used generalized additive models to 1) assess the relative contribution of vegetation, climate, and human-caused ignitions to the probability of fire in the northwest quadrant of Hawaii Island and 2) compare how landscape flammability varies due to interannual rainfall variability versus projected changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR) and temperature. Annual fire probability was highest for grasslands and peaked at drier conditions (0.04 at 450 mm MAR) when compared with shrublands (0.03 at 650 mm MAR) and forest (0.015 at 600 mm MAR). Excess rainfall the year prior to fire occurrence increased fire risk across grasslands, and thus overall fire probability, more so than drought the year that fire occurred. Drying and warming trends for the region under projected climate change increased maximum values of fire probability by as much as 375% and shifted areas of peak landscape flammability to higher elevation. Model predictions under future climate also indicate the largest changes in landscape flammability will happen by mid-Century. The influence of antecedent wet years on fire risk can improve near-term predictions of fire risk in Hawaii while climate projections indicate that fire management will need to be prioritized at upper elevations where high value natural resources are concentrated.}, } @article {pmid30199682, year = {2019}, author = {Pandey, VP and Dhaubanjar, S and Bharati, L and Thapa, BR}, title = {Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {365-383}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.053}, pmid = {30199682}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Chamelia (catchment area = 1603 km2), a tributary of Mahakali, is a snow-fed watershed in Western Nepal. The watershed has 14 hydropower projects at various stages of development. This study simulated the current and future hydrological system of Chamelia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for 2001-2007; validated for 2008-2013; and then applied to assess streamflow response to projected future climate scenarios. Multi-site calibration ensures that the model is capable of reproducing hydrological heterogeneity within the watershed. Current water balance above the Q120 hydrological station in the forms of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and net water yield are 2469 mm, 381 mm and 1946 mm, respectively. Outputs of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods were considered for assessing climate change impacts. An ensemble of bias-corrected RCM projections showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures is projected to increase from the baseline by 0.9 °C (1.1 °C), 1.4 °C (2.1 °C), and 1.6 °C (3.4 °C), respectively. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods are projected to increase by 0.9 °C (1.2 °C), 1.6 °C (2.5 °C), and 2.0 °C (3.9 °C), respectively. Average annual precipitation under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10% (11%), 10% (15%), and 13% (15%), respectively. Based on the five RCMs considered, there is a high consensus for increase in temperature but higher uncertainty with respect to precipitations. Under these projected changes, average annual streamflow was simulated to increase gradually from the near to far future under both RCPs; for instance, by 8.2% in near-, 12.2% in mid-, and 15.0% in far-future under RCP4.5 scenarios. The results are useful for planning water infrastructure projects, in Chamelia and throughout the Mahakali basin, to ensure long-term sustainability under climate change.}, } @article {pmid30199667, year = {2018}, author = {Arbuthnott, K and Hajat, S and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S}, title = {What is cold-related mortality? A multi-disciplinary perspective to inform climate change impact assessments.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {121}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {119-129}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.08.053}, pmid = {30199667}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is a growing discussion regarding the mortality burdens of hot and cold weather and how the balance between these may alter as a result of climate change. Net effects of climate change are often presented, and in some settings these may suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality will outweigh increases in heat-related mortality. However, key to these discussions is that the magnitude of temperature-related mortality is wholly sensitive to the placement of the temperature threshold above or below which effects are modelled. For cold exposure especially, where threshold effects are often ill-defined, choices in threshold placement have varied widely between published studies, even within the same location. Despite this, there is little discussion around appropriate threshold selection and whether reported associations reflect true causal relationships - i.e. whether all deaths occurring below a given temperature threshold can be regarded as cold-related and are therefore likely to decrease as climate warms.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives are to initiate a discussion around the importance of threshold placement and examine evidence for causality across the full range of temperatures used to quantify cold-related mortality. We examine whether understanding causal mechanisms can inform threshold selection, the interpretation of current and future cold-related health burdens and their use in policy formation.

METHODS: Using Greater London data as an example, we first illustrate the sensitivity of cold related mortality to threshold selection. Using the Bradford Hill criteria as a framework, we then integrate knowledge and evidence from multiple disciplines and areas- including animal and human physiology, epidemiology, biomarker studies and population level studies. This allows for discussion of several possible direct and indirect causal mechanisms operating across the range of 'cold' temperatures and lag periods used in health impact studies, and whether this in turn can inform appropriate threshold placement.

RESULTS: Evidence from a range of disciplines appears to support a causal relationship for cold across a range of temperatures and lag periods, although there is more consistent evidence for a causal effect at more extreme temperatures. It is plausible that 'direct' mechanisms for cold mortality are likely to occur at lower temperatures and 'indirect' mechanisms (e.g. via increased spread of infection) may occur at milder temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS: Separating the effects of 'extreme' and 'moderate' cold (e.g. temperatures between approximately 8-9 °C and 18 °C in the UK) could help the interpretation of studies quoting attributable mortality burdens. However there remains the general dilemma of whether it is better to use a lower cold threshold below which we are more certain of a causal relationship, but at the risk of under-estimating deaths attributable to cold.}, } @article {pmid30196319, year = {2018}, author = {Akbarpour, S and Niksokhan, MH}, title = {Investigating effects of climate change, urbanization, and sea level changes on groundwater resources in a coastal aquifer: an integrated assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {10}, pages = {579}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-6953-3}, pmid = {30196319}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Urbanization and climate change are causing numerous side effects on groundwater resources. In this study, an integrated modeling approach by linking soil and water application tool (SWAT), modular finite difference groundwater flow (MODFLOW), and three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow coupled with multi-species solute and heat transport (SEAWAT) models were used to exhibit responses of groundwater systems, in terms of flow and salt concentrations to current and future climatic and anthropogenic changes. Future climate scenarios for periods of 2010-2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM) for scenarios A1B, B1, and A2 which was downscaled by the Long Ashton Research Station weather generator (LARS-WG) providing precipitation and temperature patterns for the period 2018-2040. The GCM's outputs were applied to SWAT model to estimate recharge rate for the ten scenarios designed to assess the sensitivity of the aquifer to urbanization and climate change. The estimated recharge rate from SWAT was utilized as an input in numerical groundwater model to evaluate saltwater intrusion (SWI), changes in freshwater storage within the aquifer system, and changes in groundwater level. Based on the results of each scenario's simulation, increase of pumping rate yield by future population growth will have more adverse effects on the unconfined aquifer. The derived information from this study can be used to improve future works by developing a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged response of freshwater storage and unconfined groundwater systems to climate change and anthropogenic activities.}, } @article {pmid30194394, year = {2018}, author = {Alava, JJ and Cisneros-Montemayor, AM and Sumaila, UR and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Projected amplification of food web bioaccumulation of MeHg and PCBs under climate change in the Northeastern Pacific.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {13460}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-31824-5}, pmid = {30194394}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change increases exposure and bioaccumulation of pollutants in marine organisms, posing substantial ecophysiological and ecotoxicological risks. Here, we applied a trophodynamic ecosystem model to examine the bioaccumulation of organic mercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a Northeastern Pacific marine food web under climate change. We found largely heterogeneous sensitivity in climate-pollution impacts between chemicals and trophic groups. Concentration of MeHg and PCBs in top predators, including resident killer whales, is projected to be amplified by 8 and 3%, respectively, by 2100 under a high carbon emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) relative to a no-climate change control scenario. However, the level of amplification increases with higher carbon emission scenario for MeHg, but decreases for PCBs. Such idiosyncratic responses are shaped by the differences in bioaccumulation pathways between MeHg and PCBs, and the modifications of food web dynamics between different levels of climate change. Climate-induced pollutant amplification in mid-trophic level predators (Chinook salmon) are projected to be higher (~10%) than killer whales. Overall, the predicted trophic magnification factor is ten-fold higher in MeHg than in PCBs under high CO2 emissions. This contribution highlights the importance of understanding the interactions with anthropogenic organic pollutants in assessing climate risks on marine ecosystems.}, } @article {pmid30191473, year = {2018}, author = {Hutchins, SS and Bouye, K and Luber, G and Briseno, L and Hunter, C and Corso, L}, title = {Public Health Agency Responses and Opportunities to Protect Against Health Impacts of Climate Change Among US Populations with Multiple Vulnerabilities.}, journal = {Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s40615-017-0402-9}, pmid = {30191473}, issn = {2196-8837}, abstract = {During the past several decades, unprecedented global changes in climate have given rise to an increase in extreme weather and other climate events and their consequences such as heavy rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, heat waves, wildfires, and air pollution. These climate effects have direct impacts on human health such as premature death, injuries, exacerbation of health conditions, disruption of mental well-being, as well as indirect impacts through food- and water-related infections and illnesses. While all populations are at risk for these adverse health outcomes, some populations are at greater risk because of multiple vulnerabilities resulting from increased exposure to risk-prone areas, increased sensitivity due to underlying health conditions, and limited adaptive capacity primarily because of a lack of economic resources to respond adequately. We discuss current governmental public health responses and their future opportunities to improve resilience of special populations at greatest risk for adverse health outcomes. Vulnerability assessment, adaptation plans, public health emergency response, and public health agency accreditation are all current governmental public health actions. Governmental public health opportunities include integration of these current responses with health equity initiatives and programs in communities.}, } @article {pmid30190492, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, C and Guerit, L and Foreman, BZ and Hassenruck-Gudipati, HJ and Adatte, T and Honegger, L and Perret, M and Sluijs, A and Castelltort, S}, title = {Estimating regional flood discharge during Palaeocene-Eocene global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {13391}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-31076-3}, pmid = {30190492}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {200021-146822//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; 200021-146822//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; 200021-146822//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {Among the most urgent challenges in future climate change scenarios is accurately predicting the magnitude to which precipitation extremes will intensify. Analogous changes have been reported for an episode of millennial-scale 5 °C warming, termed the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), providing independent constraints on hydrological response to global warming. However, quantifying hydrologic extremes during geologic global warming analogs has proven difficult. Here we show that water discharge increased by at least 1.35 and potentially up to 14 times during the early phase of the PETM in northern Spain. We base these estimates on analyses of channel dimensions, sediment grain size, and palaeochannel gradients across the early PETM, which is regionally marked by an abrupt transition from overbank palaeosol deposits to conglomeratic fluvial sequences. We infer that extreme floods and channel mobility quickly denuded surrounding soil-mantled landscapes, plausibly enhanced by regional vegetation decline, and exported enormous quantities of terrigenous material towards the ocean. These results support hypotheses that extreme rainfall events and associated risks of flooding increase with global warming at similar, but potentially at much higher, magnitudes than currently predicted.}, } @article {pmid30188919, year = {2018}, author = {Halley, JM and Van Houtan, KS and Mantua, N}, title = {How survival curves affect populations' vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203124}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0203124}, pmid = {30188919}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Human activities are exposing organisms not only to direct threats (e.g. habitat loss) but also to indirect environmental pressures such as climate change, which involves not just directional global warming but also increasing climatic variability. Such changes will impact whole communities of organisms and the possible effects on population dynamics have raised concerns about increased extinction rates. Conservation-minded approaches to extinction risk vary from range shifts predicted by climate envelope models with no population dynamics to population viability analyses that ignore environmental variability altogether. Our modelling study shows that these extremes are modelling responses to a spectrum of environmental sensitivity that organisms may exhibit. We show how the survival curve plays a major role in how environmental variability leads to population fluctuations. While it is often supposed that low-fecundity organisms (those with high parental investment) will be the most vulnerable to climate change, it is those with high fecundity (low parental investment) that are likely to be more sensitive to such changes. We also find that abundance variations in high fecundity populations is driven primarily by fluctuations in the survival of early life stages, the more so if those environmental changes are autocorrelated in time. We show which types of conservation actions are most appropriate for a number of real populations. While the most effective conservation actions for organisms of low fecundity is to avoid killing them, for populations with high fecundity (and low parental investment), our study suggests conservation should focus more on protecting early life stages from hostile environments.}, } @article {pmid30188004, year = {2018}, author = {Fernández-Pascual, E and Mattana, E and Pritchard, HW}, title = {Seeds of future past: climate change and the thermal memory of plant reproductive traits.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12461}, pmid = {30188004}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {Grants 'Clarín' ACA14-19 and ACB17-19//Government of Asturias and the FP7 - Marie Curie - COFUND programme of the European Commission/ ; 607785//People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013/ ; }, abstract = {Plant persistence and migration in face of climate change depends on successful reproduction by seed, a central aspect of plant life that drives population dynamics, community assembly and species distributions. Plant reproduction by seed is a chain of physiological processes, the rates of which are a function of temperature, and can be modelled using thermal time models. Importantly, while seed reproduction responds to its instantaneous thermal environment, there is also evidence of phenotypic plasticity in response to the thermal history experienced by the plant's recent ancestors, by the reproducing plant since seedling establishment, and by its seeds both before and after their release. This phenotypic plasticity enables a thermal memory of plant reproduction, which allows individuals to acclimatise to their surroundings. This review synthesises current knowledge on the thermal memory of plant reproduction by seed, and highlights its importance for modelling approaches based on physiological thermal time. We performed a comprehensive search in the Web of Science and analysed 533 relevant articles, of which 81 provided material for a meta-analysis of thermal memory in reproductive functional traits based on the effect size Zr. The articles encompassed the topics of seed development, seed yield (mass and number), seed dormancy (physiological, morphological and physical), germination, and seedling establishment. The results of the meta-analysis provide evidence for a thermal memory of seed yield, physiological dormancy and germination. Seed mass and physiological dormancy appear to be the central hubs of this memory. We argue for integrating thermal memory into a predictive framework based on physiological time modelling. This will provide a quantitative assessment of plant reproduction, a complex system that integrates past and present thermal inputs to achieve successful reproduction in changing environments. The effects of a warming environment on plant reproduction cannot be reduced to a qualitative interpretation of absolute positives and negatives. Rather, these effects need to be understood in terms of changing rates and thresholds for the physiological process that underlie reproduction by seed.}, } @article {pmid30187645, year = {2018}, author = {Usinowicz, J and Levine, JM}, title = {Species persistence under climate change: a geographical scale coexistence problem.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {1589-1603}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13108}, pmid = {30187645}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {31003A_173210//Swiss National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Forecasting the impacts of climate change on biological diversity requires better ways to incorporate competitive interactions into predictions of species' range dynamics and persistence. This problem has been studied extensively in a different context by theoreticians evaluating the coexistence of species in spatially heterogeneous environments. Here, we show how spatial coexistence theory can be adapted to provide a mathematical framework for understanding species persistence in competitive communities under climate change. We first show how the spatial low-density growth rate provides the relevant metric of species persistence along a climate gradient. We then analyse a model of multiple migrating competitors to show how mechanisms contributing to low-density growth rates quantify the effect of different competitive processes on persistence, and how these processes change in strength with species' asynchronous migration under climate change. Finally, we outline the empirical utility of the framework, showing how the theory can scale up from local measurements of species performance and competitive interactions to range-scale metrics of persistence. Treating species' range dynamics as a geographical-scale coexistence problem presents its own set of challenges, but building from a well-established body of theory may greatly improve the predictability of species persistence in competitive communities under climate change.}, } @article {pmid30187452, year = {2018}, author = {Coates, SJ and Davis, MDP and Andersen, LK}, title = {Temperature and humidity affect the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease: a systematic review of the literature - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14188}, pmid = {30187452}, issn = {1365-4632}, abstract = {Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-mediated condition that predominantly affects children under 5 years of age. The tendency for outbreaks to peak in warmer summer months suggests a relationship between HFMD and weather patterns. We reviewed the English-language literature for articles describing a relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. Seventy-two studies meeting criteria were identified. A positive, statistically significant relationship was identified between HFMD cases and both temperature (61 of 67 studies, or 91.0%, reported a positive relationship) [CI 81.8-95.8%, P = 0.0001] and relative humidity (41 of 54 studies, or 75.9%) [CI 63.1-85.4%, P = 0.0001]. No significant relationship was identified between HFMD and precipitation, wind speed, and/or sunshine. Most countries reported a single peak of disease each year (most commonly early Summer), but subtropical and tropical climate zones were significantly more likely to experience a bimodal distribution of cases throughout the year (two peaks a year; most commonly late spring/early summer, with a smaller peak in autumn). The rising global incidence of HFMD, particularly in Pacific Asia, may be related to climate change. Weather forecasting might be used effectively in the future to indicate the risk of HFMD outbreaks and the need for targeted public health interventions.}, } @article {pmid30187146, year = {2018}, author = {Smyth, CE and Smiley, BP and Magnan, M and Birdsey, R and Dugan, AJ and Olguin, M and Mascorro, VS and Kurz, WA}, title = {Climate change mitigation in Canada's forest sector: a spatially explicit case study for two regions.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, doi = {10.1186/s13021-018-0099-z}, pmid = {30187146}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: We determine the potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by changes in management practices and wood use for two regions within Canada's managed forest from 2018 to 2050. Our modeling frameworks include the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, a framework for harvested wood products that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of marginal emission substitution benefits from the changes in use of wood products and bioenergy. Using a spatially explicit forest inventory with 16 ha pixels, we examine mitigation scenarios relating to forest management and wood use: increased harvesting efficiency; residue management for bioenergy; reduced harvest; reduced slashburning, and more longer-lived wood products. The primary reason for the spatially explicit approach at this coarse resolution was to estimate transportation distances associated with delivering harvest residues for heat and/or electricity production for local communities.

RESULTS: Results demonstrated large differences among alternative scenarios, and from alternative assumptions about substitution benefits for fossil fuel-based energy and products which changed scenario rankings. Combining forest management activities with a wood-use scenario that generated more longer-lived products had the highest mitigation potential.

CONCLUSIONS: The use of harvest residues to meet local energy demands in place of burning fossil fuels was found to be an effective scenario to reduce GHG emissions, along with scenarios that increased the utilization level for harvest, and increased the longevity of wood products. Substitution benefits from avoiding fossil fuels or emissions-intensive products were dependent on local circumstances for energy demand and fuel mix, and the assumed wood use for products. As projected future demand for biomass use in national GHG mitigation strategies could exceed sustainable biomass supply, analyses such as this can help identify biomass sources that achieve the greatest mitigation benefits.}, } @article {pmid30182605, year = {2018}, author = {Li, HQ and Liu, XL and Wang, JH and Fu, YY and Ding, SM and Xie, WY and Zhang, J}, title = {[Influence of climate change on the suitable ranges for planting pickled mustard tuber in Chongqing.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2651-2657}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201808.018}, pmid = {30182605}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Mustard Plant ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Pickled mustard tuber (Brassica juncea var. tumida) belonging to Cruciferae, is a unique economic crop in China. Climate is an important factor affecting the distribution of pickled mustard tuber. Based on species presence data at 279 locations and 22 high-resolution environmental factor layers, we analyzed the potential planting area of pickled mustard tuber in Chongqing by MaxEnt model under the current conditions and the future distributions for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that MaxEnt model was excellent in predicting its potential plan-ting area. The cumulative contributions of dominant factors reached as high as 81.7%, including precipitation of wettest month, temperature annual range, minimum temperature of coldest month, isothermality, mean diurnal range and average maximum temperature. The threshold of those factors was 173-183 mm, 27.2-28.3 ℃, 1.8-3.8 ℃, 22.5-24 ℃, 6.2-6.8 ℃ and 14.8-18.0 ℃, respectively. Under current condition, the optimum suitable areas of pickled mustard tuber, which amounted to 4.2%, were in the northeast, west and east of Fuling, the east and south of Changshou, the south and southeast of Dianjiang, the northwest and north of Fengdu, the southeast of Zhongxian, and a small part of Wulong and Nanchuan, while the proportion of moderately suitable areas was 6.3%. Under four climate change scenarios, the optimum suitable areas would drop to 2.7%, 3.8%, 3.1%, 3.2% and 3.1%, 3.7%, 3.5%, 2.9% for the periods 2050s and 2070s, respectively, while moderately suitable areas would rise gradually.}, } @article {pmid30182168, year = {2018}, author = {Dugan, AJ and Birdsey, R and Mascorro, VS and Magnan, M and Smyth, CE and Olguin, M and Kurz, WA}, title = {A systems approach to assess climate change mitigation options in landscapes of the United States forest sector.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {13}, doi = {10.1186/s13021-018-0100-x}, pmid = {30182168}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: United States forests can contribute to national strategies for greenhouse gas reductions. The objective of this work was to evaluate forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios from 2018 to 2050 by applying a systems-based approach that accounts for net emissions across four interdependent components: (1) forest ecosystem, (2) land-use change, (3) harvested wood products, and (4) substitution benefits from using wood products and bioenergy. We assessed a range of land management and harvested wood product scenarios for two case studies in the U.S: coastal South Carolina and Northern Wisconsin. We integrated forest inventory and remotely-sensed disturbance data within a modelling framework consisting of a growth-and-yield driven ecosystem carbon model; a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions from commodity production, use and post-consumer treatment; and displacement factors to estimate avoided fossil fuel emissions. We estimated biophysical mitigation potential by comparing net emissions from land management and harvested wood products scenarios with a baseline ('business as usual') scenario.

RESULTS: Baseline scenario results showed that the strength of the ecosystem carbon sink has been decreasing in the two sites due to age-related productivity declines and deforestation. Mitigation activities have the potential to lessen or delay the further reduction in the carbon sink. Results of the mitigation analysis indicated that scenarios reducing net forest area loss were most effective in South Carolina, while extending harvest rotations and increasing longer-lived wood products were most effective in Wisconsin. Scenarios aimed at increasing bioenergy use either increased or reduced net emissions within the 32-year analysis timeframe.

CONCLUSIONS: It is critical to apply a systems approach to comprehensively assess net emissions from forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios. Although some scenarios produced a benefit by displacing emissions from fossil fuel energy or by substituting wood products for other materials, these benefits can be outweighed by increased carbon emissions in the forest or product systems. Maintaining forests as forests, extending rotations, and shifting commodities to longer-lived products had the strongest mitigation benefits over several decades. Carbon cycle impacts of bioenergy depend on timeframe, feedstocks, and alternative uses of biomass, and cannot be assumed carbon neutral.}, } @article {pmid30181643, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Global warming tops the agenda as climate brings down a third Australian prime minister.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7721}, pages = {5-6}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06164-z}, pmid = {30181643}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30181268, year = {2018}, author = {Krinner, G and Flanner, MG}, title = {Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {38}, pages = {9462-9466}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1807912115}, pmid = {30181268}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model's preindustrial bias pattern, a model's 4xCO2 bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models.}, } @article {pmid30180761, year = {2018}, author = {Phillips, C and Lipman, GS and Gugelmann, H and Doering, K and Lung, D}, title = {Snakebites and climate change in California, 1997-2017.}, journal = {Clinical toxicology (Philadelphia, Pa.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, doi = {10.1080/15563650.2018.1508690}, pmid = {30180761}, issn = {1556-9519}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change effect on flora and fauna has been scientifically documented, but the effect on North American venomous snakebites is unknown. The objectives were to examine Californian snakebite incidence and correlate with weather patterns and climate changes.

METHODS: A retrospective analysis of snakebites reported to the Californian Poison Control System from 1 September 1997 to 30 September 2017. Venomous snakebite reports were aggregated by caller zip code, and correlated per county with weather data, air temperature, precipitation, population data, eco-regions, and land characteristics. Time series decomposition by seasonality and trend, regression, and autocorrelation were used to assess association between climate variables and incidence.

RESULTS: There were 5365 reported venomous snakebites during the study period, with a median age of 37 years (22-51) with 76% male (p < .001, 95% CI 75.6-77.9%). Most snakebite outcomes were coded as minor (1363, 25%) or moderate (2607, 49%), with three deaths. Adjusted for population, the annualized incidence of snakebites statewide slightly decreased (rho = -0.11, p = .65). The snakebite incidence per million people rose after a period of no drought and declined during drought (r = -0.41, p ≪ .01). Snakebite incidence decreased by 6-month prior drought (-3.8% for each 10% increase in drought), and increased by 18-month prior precipitation (+3.9% for each 10% increase in precipitation).

CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of precipitation and drought had a significant and predictive effect on snakebites in California over a 20-year period. Snakebite incidence decreased following drought, and increased after precipitation.}, } @article {pmid30180357, year = {2019}, author = {Longyang, Q}, title = {Assessing the effects of climate change on water quality of plateau deep-water lake - A study case of Hongfeng Lake.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {1518-1530}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.031}, pmid = {30180357}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change-related temperature increases and sea level rise have a significant impact on the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. Impacts on ecosystems will mostly occur over the long term and short-term effects may consequently attract comparatively less attention from researchers and decision-makers. In this study, we investigate eight meteorological factors and eleven water quality indicators of deep-water lakes in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in southwestern China. A robust proxy model based on a seven-year dataset (2010-2016) was established to predict the effects of climate change on water quality in Hongfeng Lake over the coming years. Perturbation analysis revealed that global warming has a more significant effect on chlorophyll a levels than on total phosphorus or total nitrogen in the lake area, and that external nutrient loading is a key factor aggravating eutrophication. Non-point source pollution induced by heavy precipitation will likely lead to an increase in total nitrogen and the lake may become more phosphorus-restricted. Reducing external inputs and controlling endogenous releases will help alleviate eutrophication.}, } @article {pmid30180331, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, Y and Hartemink, AE and Shi, Z and Liang, Z and Lu, Y}, title = {Land use and climate change effects on soil organic carbon in North and Northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {1230-1238}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.016}, pmid = {30180331}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil is recognized as the largest carbon reservoir in the terrestrial ecosystem. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is vulnerable to changes in land use and climate. For a better understanding of the SOC dynamics and its driving factors, we collected data of the 1980s and 2000s in the North and Northeast China and conducted the digital soil mapping for spatial variation of SOC for the respective period. In the 1980s, 585 soils were sampled and the area was resampled in 2003 and 2004 (1062 samples) in a 30-km grid. The main land use in the area was cropland, forest and grassland. The random forest was used to predict the SOC concentration and its temporal change using land use, terrain factors, vegetation index, vis-NIR spectra and climate factors as predictors. The average SOC concentration in 1985 was 10.0 g kg-1 compared to 12.5 g kg-1 in 2004. The SOC variation was similar over the two periods, and levels increased from south to north. The estimated SOC stock was 1.68 Pg in 1985 and 1.66 Pg in 2004, but the SOC changes were different under different land uses. Over the twenty-year period, average temperatures increased and large areas of forests and grassland were converted to cropland. SOC under cropland was increased by 0.094 Pg (+9%) whereas 0.089 Pg SOC was lost under forests (-25%) and 0.037 Pg in the soils under grassland (-25%). It is concluded that land use is the main drivers for SOC changes in this area while climate change had different contributions in different regions. SOC loss was remarkable under the land use conversion while cropland has considerable potential to sequester SOC.}, } @article {pmid30179545, year = {2018}, author = {Tuller, D}, title = {Confronting The Effects Of Climate Change On Health In California.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {37}, number = {9}, pages = {1354-1357}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2018.0942}, pmid = {30179545}, issn = {1544-5208}, abstract = {Vulnerable communities have been forced to address the deepening impact of severe weather events on residents' well-being.}, } @article {pmid30179479, year = {2018}, author = {Anderson, CM and Kissel, KA and Field, CB and Mach, KJ}, title = {Climate Change Mitigation, Air Pollution, and Environmental Justice in California.}, journal = {Environmental science & technology}, volume = {52}, number = {18}, pages = {10829-10838}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b00908}, pmid = {30179479}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Climate change mitigation policies can have significant co-benefits for air quality, including benefits to disadvantaged communities experiencing substantial air pollution. However, the effects of these mitigation policies have rarely been evaluated with respect to their influence on disadvantaged communities. Here we assess the air pollution and environmental justice implications of California's cap-and-trade mitigation program through analysis of (1) the sources of air pollution in disadvantaged communities, (2) emissions-reduction offset usage under the cap-and-trade program, and (3) the relationship between reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and reductions in co-pollutant emissions. Our analysis suggests that the cap-and-trade program has limited impacts, including limited disproportionate impacts, on air quality in disadvantaged communities. The sources of most air pollution in these communities have not been subject to the cap-and-trade program, and the use of emissions-reduction offsets is only marginally higher in disadvantaged communities than in other communities. Furthermore, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions imply smaller proportional reductions in co-pollutant emissions. While climate policies lead to important air quality co-benefits in some contexts, especially through reduced coal usage, targeted air quality policies and regulations may be more effective for reducing air pollution in disadvantaged communities in California and throughout the state.}, } @article {pmid30177567, year = {2018}, author = {Foster, GL and Hull, P and Lunt, DJ and Zachos, JC}, title = {Placing our current 'hyperthermal' in the context of rapid climate change in our geological past.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2130}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2017.0086}, pmid = {30177567}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {'…there are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.' Donald Rumsfeld 12th February 2002.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.}, } @article {pmid30177247, year = {2018}, author = {Rifkin, DI and Long, MW and Perry, MJ}, title = {Climate change and sleep: A systematic review of the literature and conceptual framework.}, journal = {Sleep medicine reviews}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.smrv.2018.07.007}, pmid = {30177247}, issn = {1532-2955}, abstract = {From disaster related stress causing insomnia, to poor air quality causing sleep related breathing problems, climate change poses a potentially serious threat to human sleep. We conducted a systematic review evaluating the relationship between climate change and human sleep in the PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane databases from 1980 through 2017 following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Inclusion criteria included epidemiologic studies published in English that reported observational population data on human sleep and its relationship to climate change, temperature, extreme weather events and climate related disasters (e.g. hurricanes, floods, and wildfires). We excluded non-human studies, laboratory or experimental physiology studies, commentaries or letters, review articles, and articles on wind turbines. Using a systematic search strategy, 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. Six studies related to the effects of rising temperature, seven studies related to extreme weather events, and three studies related to floods or wildfires. Diminished total sleep times and sleep disruption were most commonly reported, especially among the most vulnerable populations including the elderly and low-income; however, the body of evidence was limited and further well-designed human studies are clearly needed. We present a conceptual framework for identifying the emerging threats of climate change and understanding their respective effects on human sleep.}, } @article {pmid30177006, year = {2018}, author = {Anglaret, X}, title = {I would prefer not to aggravate global warming.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e382-e383}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30171-2}, pmid = {30177006}, issn = {2542-5196}, } @article {pmid30177000, year = {2018}, author = {Shultz, JM and Kossin, JP and Ettman, C and Kinney, PL and Galea, S}, title = {The 2017 perfect storm season, climate change, and environmental injustice.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e370-e371}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30168-2}, pmid = {30177000}, issn = {2542-5196}, } @article {pmid30176471, year = {2019}, author = {Hoang, LP and van Vliet, MTH and Kummu, M and Lauri, H and Koponen, J and Supit, I and Leemans, R and Kabat, P and Ludwig, F}, title = {The Mekong's future flows under multiple drivers: How climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation expansions drive hydrological changes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {601-609}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.160}, pmid = {30176471}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin - an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and -3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (-15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to +160%); flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to -25%); and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to -25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes.}, } @article {pmid30176458, year = {2019}, author = {Deligios, PA and Chergia, AP and Sanna, G and Solinas, S and Todde, G and Narvarte, L and Ledda, L}, title = {Climate change adaptation and water saving by innovative irrigation management applied on open field globe artichoke.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {461-472}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.349}, pmid = {30176458}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The setting up of innovative irrigation water management might contribute to the mitigation of negative issues related to climate change. Our hypothesis was that globe artichoke irrigated with a traditionally drip system could be converted to an innovative water management system based on precision irrigation techniques and on evaporative cooling application in order to improve crop physiological status with positive impacts on earliness, total heads yield and water saving. Over two experiments carried out at plot- and field-scale, two irrigation management systems, differing in type and application time, were compared: (i) conventional, and (ii) canopy-cooling. Plant physiological status at a weekly sampling interval and the head atrophy incidence (as the ratio of the total primary heads collected) were monitored. We also recorded and determined heads production, and yield components. In both experiments, throughout the application period of evaporative cooling (three months), canopy-cooling showed the lowest value of leaf temperature and the highest photosynthesis values compared with the conventional one (+3 °C and -30%, respectively). The physiological advantage gained by the crop with evaporative cooling has led to a higher production both in terms of total yield (+30%), and in terms of harvested first order heads that from an economic viewpoint are the most profitable for farmers. At farm-scale, the canopy-cooling treatment resulted in a higher earliness (35 days) and water productivity (+36%) compared with conventional one. Our findings show that by combining evaporative cooling practice with precision irrigation technique the heads yield can be optimized also leading to a relevant water saving (-34%). Moreover, the study proved that canopy-cooling set up might be a winning strategy in order to mitigate climatic changes and heat stress conditions.}, } @article {pmid30173951, year = {2018}, author = {Nogués-Bravo, D and Rodríguez-Sánchez, F and Orsini, L and de Boer, E and Jansson, R and Morlon, H and Fordham, DA and Jackson, ST}, title = {Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology & evolution}, volume = {33}, number = {10}, pages = {765-776}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005}, pmid = {30173951}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.}, } @article {pmid30173057, year = {2018}, author = {Schmidt, A and Creason, W and Law, BE}, title = {Estimating regional effects of climate change and altered land use on biosphere carbon fluxes using distributed time delay neural networks with Bayesian regularized learning.}, journal = {Neural networks : the official journal of the International Neural Network Society}, volume = {108}, number = {}, pages = {97-113}, doi = {10.1016/j.neunet.2018.08.004}, pmid = {30173057}, issn = {1879-2782}, abstract = {The ability to accurately predict changes of the carbon and energy balance on a regional scale is of great importance for assessing the effect of land use changes on carbon sequestration under future climate conditions. Here, a suite of land cover-specific Distributed Time Delay Neural Networks with a parameter adoption algorithm optimized through Bayesian regularization was used to model the statewide atmospheric exchange of CO2, water vapor, and energy in Oregon with its strong spatial gradients of climate and land cover. The network models were trained with eddy covariance data from 9 atmospheric flux towers. Compared to results derived with more common regression networks utilizing non-delayed input vectors, the performance of the DTDNN models was significantly improved with an average increase of the coefficients of determination of 64%. The optimized models were applied in combination with downscaled climate projections of the CMIP5 project to calculate future changes in the cycle of carbon, associated with a prescribed conversion of conventional grass-crops to hybrid poplar plantations for biofuel production in Oregon. The results show that under future RCP8.5 climate conditions the total statewide NEP increases by 0.87 TgC per decade until 2050 without any land use changes. With all non-forage grass completely converted to hybrid poplar the NEP averages 32.9 TgC in 2046-2050, an increase of 9%. Through comparisons with the results of a Bayesians inversion study, the results presented demonstrate that DTDNN models are a specifically well-suited approach to use the available data from flux networks to assess changes in biosphere-atmosphere exchange triggered by massive land use conversion superimposed on a changing climate.}, } @article {pmid30172574, year = {2018}, author = {Lilienfeld, E and Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and Corless, IB}, title = {Addressing climate change through a nursing lens within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: A scoping review.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2018.06.010}, pmid = {30172574}, issn = {1528-3968}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In 2000, the United Nations (UN) introduced the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), described as a global movement with the primary aim of ending world-wide poverty ("Millennium Summit," 2000). The second phase of the project, known as the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda offers an increased emphasis on lessening the mitigating factors associated with climate change and adapting to the negative effects of climate change. Nurses are in the unique position to address the health-related impacts related to climate change through community health approaches aimed at education and promotion of environmental stewardship.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this scoping review was to examine the relationships among the health consequences of climate change, nursing literature on climate change, and nursing implications. The following will be addressed: "What is nursing's role in policy, practice, and advocacy when addressing the effects of climate change? What is the importance of the SDGs as a framework for addressing climate change in the role of nursing?"

METHOD: This scoping review of the literature was conducted which included the evaluation of a broad range of articles using scoping methods as frameworks.

RESULTS: An overarching theme regarding the nursing community's responsibility in addressing the effects of climate change and their role as advocates, educators, and global citizens was extracted from the scoping review.

CONCLUSIONS: There are many opportunities for nurses to become actively involved in efforts aimed at mitigation, adaptation, and resilience efforts in climate change, including becoming involved in policy, advocacy, research, and practice opportunities.}, } @article {pmid30168745, year = {2018}, author = {Ramanathan, V and Samet, J and Neira, M and Sorondo, MS}, title = {Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Health: A Declaration from the Vatican.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {1027-1029}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.201805-319ED}, pmid = {30168745}, issn = {2325-6621}, } @article {pmid30167455, year = {2018}, author = {Gaines, SD and Costello, C and Owashi, B and Mangin, T and Bone, J and Molinos, JG and Burden, M and Dennis, H and Halpern, BS and Kappel, CV and Kleisner, KM and Ovando, D}, title = {Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {eaao1378}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aao1378}, pmid = {30167455}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The world's oceans supply food and livelihood to billions of people, yet species' shifting geographic ranges and changes in productivity arising from climate change are expected to profoundly affect these benefits. We ask how improvements in fishery management can offset the negative consequences of climate change; we find that the answer hinges on the current status of stocks. The poor current status of many stocks combined with potentially maladaptive responses to range shifts could reduce future global fisheries yields and profits even more severely than previous estimates have suggested. However, reforming fisheries in ways that jointly fix current inefficiencies, adapt to fisheries productivity changes, and proactively create effective transboundary institutions could lead to a future with higher profits and yields compared to what is produced today.}, } @article {pmid30166779, year = {2018}, author = {Babaie, J and Barati, M and Azizi, M and Ephtekhari, A and Sadat, SJ}, title = {A systematic evidence review of the effect of climate change on malaria in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of parasitic diseases : official organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {331-340}, doi = {10.1007/s12639-018-1017-8}, pmid = {30166779}, issn = {0971-7196}, abstract = {Climate is an effective factor in the ecological structure which plays an important role in control and outbreak of the diseases caused by biological factors like malaria. With regard to the occurring climatic change, this study aimed to review the effects of climate change on malaria in Iran. In this systematic review, Cochrane, PubMed and ScienceDirect (as international databases), SID and Magiran as Persian databases were investigated through MESH keywords including climate change, global warming, malaria, Anopheles, and Iran. The related articles were screened and finally their results were extracted using data extraction sheets. Totally 41 papers were resulted through databases searching process. Finally 14 papers which met inclusion criteria were included in data extraction stage. The findings indicated that Anopheles mosquitoes are present at least in 115 places in Iran; they are compatible with climatic zones of Iran. Malaria and it's vectors are affected by climate change. Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind intensity and direction are the most important climatic factors affecting the growth and proliferation of Anopheles, Plasmodium and the prevalence of malaria. The transmission of malaria in Iran is associated with the climatic factors of temperature, rainfall, and humidity. Therefore, with regard to the occurring climatic change, the incidence of the disease may also change which needs to be taken into consideration while planning of malaria control.}, } @article {pmid30166778, year = {2018}, author = {Van Lange, PAM and Joireman, J and Milinski, M}, title = {Climate Change: What Psychology Can Offer in Terms of Insights and Solutions.}, journal = {Current directions in psychological science}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {269-274}, doi = {10.1177/0963721417753945}, pmid = {30166778}, issn = {0963-7214}, abstract = {Can psychological science offer evidence-based solutions to climate change? Using insights and principles derived from the literature on social dilemmas and human cooperation, we discuss evidence in support of three solutions: crossing the borders of thought, time, and space. First, borders of thought could be crossed by using persuasion that is concrete and tailored to local circumstances and by highlighting information about people's efforts as evidence against the myth of self-interest. Second, borders of time could be crossed by using kinship cues, which can help make the future less distant, and relatively uninvolved advisors, who may help make the future salient. And third, borders of space could be crossed by showing group representatives how they might benefit from a frame of altruistic competition-focusing on the benefits of being seen as moral and global in orientation. Our overall conclusion is that psychological science can offer evidence-based solutions to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30166491, year = {2018}, author = {Nolan, C and Overpeck, JT and Allen, JRM and Anderson, PM and Betancourt, JL and Binney, HA and Brewer, S and Bush, MB and Chase, BM and Cheddadi, R and Djamali, M and Dodson, J and Edwards, ME and Gosling, WD and Haberle, S and Hotchkiss, SC and Huntley, B and Ivory, SJ and Kershaw, AP and Kim, SH and Latorre, C and Leydet, M and Lézine, AM and Liu, KB and Liu, Y and Lozhkin, AV and McGlone, MS and Marchant, RA and Momohara, A and Moreno, PI and Müller, S and Otto-Bliesner, BL and Shen, C and Stevenson, J and Takahara, H and Tarasov, PE and Tipton, J and Vincens, A and Weng, C and Xu, Q and Zheng, Z and Jackson, ST}, title = {Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6405}, pages = {920-923}, doi = {10.1126/science.aan5360}, pmid = {30166491}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.}, } @article {pmid30161113, year = {2018}, author = {Bennett, H and King, P}, title = {Pro-equity climate change and environmental sustainability action by district health boards in Aotearoa/New Zealand.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {131}, number = {1481}, pages = {56-63}, pmid = {30161113}, issn = {1175-8716}, abstract = {AIM: With current health ministerial directives to prioritise actions on reducing health inequities and district health board (DHB) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we argue that all climate change and environmental sustainability actions by DHBs must be pro-equity, and explore how the two priorities can be addressed concurrently.

METHOD: Building on prior knowledge of climate change and environmental sustainability action in the health and disability sector, we undertook a visioning exercise to generate ideas for pro-equity GHG emissions reduction initiatives in the DHB context. Visioning was further informed by presentation and feedback discussion at an Annual Scientific Meeting of the New Zealand College of Public Health Medicine.

RESULTS: Three scenarios were envisioned in the areas of DHB energy use, transport and procurement where GHG emissions could be reduced, and health determinants and outcomes for Māori and Pacific peoples improved.

CONCLUSION: Current ministerial directives to address both health inequities and DHB greenhouse gas emissions present DHBs with the opportunity to ensure they systematically address both priorities at the same time. In doing so, Aotearoa/New Zealand has the potential to lead the world in demonstrating pro-equity climate change and sustainability action in health systems.}, } @article {pmid30160697, year = {2017}, author = {Maksimovic, Z and Cornwell, MS and Semren, O and Rifatbegovic, M}, title = {The apparent role of climate change in a recent anthrax outbreak in cattle.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {959-963}, doi = {10.20506/rst.36.3.2727}, pmid = {30160697}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthrax/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Bacillus anthracis/isolation & purification ; Bosnia and Herzegovina/epidemiology ; Cattle ; Cattle Diseases/epidemiology/*microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary ; }, abstract = {An anthrax outbreak recently occurred in cattle in a region that had previously been free of the disease for more than two decades. This event followed heavy springtime rains that had caused flooding, and a hot, dry summer. These temporally connected events may indicate a new link between climate change and an increased incidence of bacterial diseases with environmental reservoirs.}, } @article {pmid30159651, year = {2018}, author = {Limaye, VS and Vargo, J and Harkey, M and Holloway, T and Patz, JA}, title = {Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {485-496}, doi = {10.1007/s10393-018-1363-0}, pmid = {30159651}, issn = {1612-9210}, support = {1R21ES020232-01//National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641-20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030-12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.}, } @article {pmid30159527, year = {2017}, author = {Entwisle, TJ and Cole, C and Symes, P}, title = {Adapting the botanical landscape of Melbourne Gardens (Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria) in response to climate change.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {39}, number = {6}, pages = {338-347}, doi = {10.1016/j.pld.2017.11.001}, pmid = {30159527}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Botanic gardens around the world maintain collections of living plants for science, conservation, education, beauty and more. These collections change over time - in scope and content - but the predicted impacts of climate change will require a more strategic approach to the succession of plant species and their landscapes. Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria has recently published a 'Landscape Succession Strategy' for its Melbourne Gardens, a spectacular botanical landscape established in 1846. The strategy recognizes that with 1.6 million visitors each year, responsibility for a heritage-listed landscape and the need to care for a collection of 8500 plant species of conservation and scientific importance, planting and planning must take into account anticipated changes to rainfall and temperature. The trees we plant today must be suitable for the climate of the twenty-second century. Specifically, the Strategy sets out the steps needed over the next twenty years to transition the botanic garden to one resilient to the climate modelled for 2090. The document includes a range of practical measures and achievable (and at times somewhat aspirational) targets. Climate analogues will be used to identify places in Australia and elsewhere with conditions today similar to those predicted for Melbourne in 2090, to help select new species for the collection. Modelling of the natural and cultivated distribution of species will be used to help select suitable growth forms to replace existing species of high value or interest. Improved understanding of temperature gradients within the botanic garden, water holding capacity of soils and plant water use behaviour is already resulting in better targeted planting and irrigation. The goal is to retain a similar diversity of species but transition the collection so that by 2036 at least 75% of the species are suitable for the climate in 2090. Over the next few years we hope to provide 100% of irrigation water from sustainable water sources, and infrastructure will be improved to adapt to predicted higher temperatures and more climatic extremes. At all times there will be a strong focus on assisting the broader community in their response to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30157226, year = {2018}, author = {Martínez-Jauregui, M and Serra-Varela, MJ and Díaz, M and Soliño, M}, title = {Mitigation strategies for conserving bird diversity under climate change scenarios in Europe: The role of forest naturalization.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0202009}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0202009}, pmid = {30157226}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {There are many possible strategies to promote naturalization in anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate global change effects. We combined large-scale databases available for continental Spain on: (1) distribution of breeding birds, (2) forest inventory stands, (3) land-use cover, (4) 18 global climate models recently developed at local scales, and (5) historical and genetically-based information on the distribution of natural versus planted pine forests, to analyze whether back to nature strategies may help to mitigate biodiversity loss due to climate change. We performed the analysis along environmental and ecological gradients of pine forests in Southern Europe. Models suggested that, naturalization strategies, in this case defined by the replacement of planted pine forests and eucalyptus forests by natural pine forests, could help to mitigate the expected loss of bird diversity due to climate change, but that mitigation efficiency will vary along environmental and ecological gradients. Maximum levels of diversity mitigation were predicted at intermediate levels of naturalization, with lower bird richness in areas where all pine forests were either planted or naturalized. Efficiency also varied spatially, given that both cold- and hot-spots of climate-driven bird diversity loss were identified. Transforming planted forest into natural forest is not a mitigation panacea, and additional regionally-adapted strategies may be identified to mitigate the expected biodiversity loss in forest ecosystems.}, } @article {pmid30156484, year = {2018}, author = {Walker, JT}, title = {The influence of climate change on waterborne disease and Legionella: a review.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {138}, number = {5}, pages = {282-286}, doi = {10.1177/1757913918791198}, pmid = {30156484}, issn = {1757-9147}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to have a major impact on people's lives with the recent extreme weather events and varying abnormal temperature profiles across the world raising concerns. The impacts of global warming are already being observed, from rising sea levels and melting snow and ice to changing weather patterns. Scientists state unequivocally that these trends cannot be explained by natural variability in climate alone. Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, have warmed the earth by dramatically increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere; as these concentrations increase, the more the earth will warm. Climate change and related extreme weather events are being exacerbated sooner than has previously been considered and are already adversely affecting ecosystems and human health by increasing the burden and type of disease at a local level. Changes to the marine environment and freshwater supplies already affect significant parts of the world's population and warmer temperatures, especially in more temperate regions, may see an increased spread and transmission of diseases usually associated with warmer climes including, for example, cholera and malaria; these impacts are likely to become more severe in a greater number of countries. This review discusses the impacts of climate change including changes in infectious disease transmission, patterns of waterborne diseases and the likely consequences of climate change due to warmer water, drought, higher rainfall, rising sea levels and flooding.}, } @article {pmid30155993, year = {2018}, author = {Bigot, S and Buges, J and Gilly, L and Jacques, C and Le Boulch, P and Berger, M and Delcros, P and Domergue, JB and Koehl, A and Ley-Ngardigal, B and Tran Van Canh, L and Couée, I}, title = {Pivotal roles of environmental sensing and signaling mechanisms in plant responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14433}, pmid = {30155993}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change reshapes the physiology and development of organisms through phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic modifications, and genetic adaptation. Under evolutionary pressures of the sessile lifestyle, plants possess efficient systems of phenotypic plasticity and acclimation to environmental conditions. Molecular analysis, especially through omics approaches, of these primary lines of environmental adjustment in the context of climate change has revealed the underlying biochemical and physiological mechanisms, thus characterizing the links between phenotypic plasticity and climate change responses. The efficiency of adaptive plasticity under climate change indeed depends on the realization of such biochemical and physiological mechanisms, but the importance of sensing and signaling mechanisms that can integrate perception of environmental cues and transduction into physiological responses is often overlooked. Recent progress opens the possibility of considering plant phenotypic plasticity and responses to climate change through the perspective of environmental sensing and signaling. This review aims to analyze present knowledge on plant sensing and signaling mechanisms and discuss how their structural and functional characteristics lead to resilience or hypersensitivity under conditions of climate change. Plant cells are endowed with arrays of environmental and stress sensors and with internal signals that act as molecular integrators of the multiple constraints of climate change, thus giving rise to potential mechanisms of climate change sensing. Moreover, mechanisms of stress-related information propagation lead to stress memory and acquired stress tolerance that could withstand different scenarios of modifications of stress frequency and intensity. However, optimal functioning of existing sensors, optimal integration of additive constraints and signals, or memory processes can be hampered by conflicting interferences between novel combinations and novel changes in intensity and duration of climate change-related factors. Analysis of these contrasted situations emphasizes the need for future research on the diversity and robustness of plant signaling mechanisms under climate change conditions.}, } @article {pmid30154576, year = {2018}, author = {Piñeiro-Corbeira, C and Barreiro, R and Cremades, J and Arenas, F}, title = {Seaweed assemblages under a climate change scenario: Functional responses to temperature of eight intertidal seaweeds match recent abundance shifts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {12978}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-31357-x}, pmid = {30154576}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Field evidence is essential to assess the consequences of climate change but a solid causal link often requires additional information obtained under controlled laboratory conditions. Additionally, the functional response to temperature may also help to discriminate species potentially more vulnerable to warming. Using a highly resolved temperature gradient, we examined the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration in eight intertidal seaweeds that recently followed opposite abundance trends in NW Iberia. The temperature dependence of photosynthesis was consistently different between the macroalgae that increased and those that decreased their abundance in the last decade and a half, with photosynthesis twice more sensitive in the upward group. Unlike photosynthesis, the temperature dependence of respiration was unrelated to the abundance trend group, implying that the net metabolic scaling with temperature varied between the two groups of seaweeds. Overall, our results provide experimental support to the role of temperate as a likely driver of the changes in abundance recorded by field-monitoring studies. They also suggest that the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration assessed in short-term experiments may serve as a biomarker of the potential vulnerability of some seaweed to the consequences of water warming.}, } @article {pmid30154536, year = {2018}, author = {Reardon, S}, title = {Trump's science-adviser pick hedges on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7720}, pages = {536-537}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06019-7}, pmid = {30154536}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30153361, year = {2018}, author = {Sigdel, SR and Wang, Y and Camarero, JJ and Zhu, H and Liang, E and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Moisture-mediated responsiveness of treeline shifts to global warming in the Himalayas.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5549-5559}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14428}, pmid = {30153361}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41661144040//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; //Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS/ ; //CAS-TWAS/ ; //Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; ERC-SyG-2013-610028//European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Among forest ecosystems, the alpine treeline ecotone can be considered to be a simplified model to study global ecology and climate change. Alpine treelines are expected to shift upwards in response to global warming given that tree recruitment and growth are assumed to be mainly limited by low temperatures. However, little is known whether precipitation and temperature interact to drive long-term Himalayan treeline dynamics. Tree growth is affected by spring rainfall in the central Himalayan treelines, being good locations for testing if, in addition to temperature, precipitation mediates treeline dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we reconstructed spatiotemporal variations in treeline dynamics in 20 plots located at six alpine treeline sites, dominated by two tree species (birch, fir), and situated along an east-west precipitation gradient in the central Himalayas. Our reconstructions evidenced that treelines shifted upward in response to recent climate warming, but their shift rates were primarily mediated by spring precipitation. The rate of upward shift was higher in the wettest eastern Himalayas, suggesting that its ascent rate was facilitated by spring precipitation. The drying tendency in association with the recent warming trends observed in the central Himalayas, however, will likely hinder an upslope advancement of alpine treelines and promote downward treeline shifts if moisture availability crosses a critical minimum threshold. Our study highlights the complexity of plant responses to climate and the need to consider multiple climate factors when analyzing treeline dynamics.}, } @article {pmid30152470, year = {2017}, author = {Baylis, M and Caminade, C and Turner, J and Jones, AE}, title = {The role of climate change in a developing threat: the case of bluetongue in Europe.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {467-478}, doi = {10.20506/rst.36.2.2667}, pmid = {30152470}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Bluetongue/*epidemiology/transmission ; Bluetongue virus/*physiology ; Ceratopogonidae/*physiology/virology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/transmission/veterinary/virology ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/physiology/*virology ; Sheep ; }, abstract = {There is a solid theoretical basis for expecting climate change to have a considerable effect on the infectious diseases of humans, animals and plants. Vector-borne diseases are the most likely to be affected. It is, however, rare to observe such impacts, as diseases are also influenced by many other drivers, some of which may have stronger effects over shorter time scales than climate change. Nevertheless, there is evidence that our warming climate has already influenced some animal diseases, of which bluetongue is considered a prime example. Bluetongue emerged dramatically in southern Europe after 1998 and in northern Europe from 2006. While the speed and scale of this emergence is a challenge to explain, there is evidence, principally from the development of climate-driven models, that recent climate change has played a significant role. Climate-driven models point to an increase in the risk of bluetongue transmission in Europe in recent decades, caused by an increased suitability of parts of southern Europe for the Afro-tropical biting midge, Culicoides imicola, as well as an increase in the vectorial capacity of indigenous Culicoides vectors in northern Europe. Farm-to-farm transmission models of bluetongue in England and Wales under predicted climatic conditions further suggest that, under high-emission scenarios, the scale of future outbreaks could far exceed those experienced to date. The role of climate change in the developing threat of animal disease is, therefore, likely to be economically and socially costly, unless lower emission targets can be set and followed.}, } @article {pmid30152194, year = {2018}, author = {Kornder, NA and Riegl, BM and Figueiredo, J}, title = {Thresholds and drivers of coral calcification responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5084-5095}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14431}, pmid = {30152194}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Institute of International Education/ ; //Germanistic Society of America/ ; }, abstract = {Increased temperature and CO2 levels are considered key drivers of coral reef degradation. However, individual assessments of ecological responses (calcification) to these stressors are often contradicting. To detect underlying drivers of heterogeneity in coral calcification responses, we developed a procedure for the inclusion of stress-effect relationships in ecological meta-analyses. We applied this technique to a dataset of 294 empirical observations from 62 peer-reviewed publications testing individual and combined effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 on coral calcification. Our results show an additive interaction between warming and acidification, which reduces coral calcification by 20% when pCO2 levels exceed 700 ppm and temperature increases by 3°C. However, stress levels varied among studies and significantly affected outcomes, with unaffected calcification rates under moderate stresses (pCO2 ≤ 700 ppm, ΔT < 3°C). Future coral reef carbon budgets will therefore depend on the magnitude of pCO2 and temperature elevations and, thus, anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Accounting for stress-effect relationships enabled us to identify additional drivers of heterogeneity including coral taxa, life stage, habitat, food availability, climate, and season. These differences can aid reef management identifying refuges and conservation priorities, but without a global effort to reduce CO2 emissions, coral capacity to build reefs will be at risk.}, } @article {pmid30151036, year = {2018}, author = {Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {How do phenology, plasticity, and evolution determine the fitness consequences of climate change for montane butterflies?.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {1231-1244}, doi = {10.1111/eva.12618}, pmid = {30151036}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Species have responded to climate change via seasonal (phenological) shifts, morphological plasticity, and evolutionary adaptation, but how these responses contribute to changes and variation in population fitness are poorly understood. We assess the interactions and relative importance of these responses for fitness in a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Because environmental temperatures affect developmental rates of each life stage, populations along the gradients differ in phenological timing and the number of generations each year. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity of adult butterflies, exhibits local adaptation across elevation and responds plastically to developmental temperatures. We integrate climatic data for the past half-century with microclimate, developmental, biophysical, demographic, and evolutionary models for this system to predict how phenology, plasticity, and evolution contribute to phenotypic and fitness variation along the gradient. We predict that phenological advancements incompletely compensate for climate warming, and also influence morphological plasticity. Climate change is predicted to increase mean population fitness in the first seasonal generation at high elevation, but decrease mean fitness in the summer generations at low elevation. Phenological shifts reduce the interannual variation in directional selection and morphology, but do not have consistent effects on variation in mean fitness. Morphological plasticity and its evolution can substantially increase population fitness and adaptation to climate change at low elevations, but environmental unpredictability limits adaptive plastic and evolutionary responses at high elevations. Phenological shifts also decrease the relative fitness advantages of morphological plasticity and evolution. Our results illustrate how the potential contributions of phenological and morphological plasticity and of evolution to climate change adaptation can vary along environmental gradients and how environmental variability will limit adaptive responses to climate change in montane regions.}, } @article {pmid30150388, year = {2018}, author = {Staubwasser, M and Drăgușin, V and Onac, BP and Assonov, S and Ersek, V and Hoffmann, DL and Veres, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on the transition of Neanderthals to modern humans in Europe.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {37}, pages = {9116-9121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1808647115}, pmid = {30150388}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Archaeology ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; *Neanderthals ; }, abstract = {Two speleothem stable isotope records from East-Central Europe demonstrate that Greenland Stadial 12 (GS12) and GS10-at 44.3-43.3 and 40.8-40.2 ka-were prominent intervals of cold and arid conditions. GS12, GS11, and GS10 are coeval with a regional pattern of culturally (near-)sterile layers within Europe's diachronous archeologic transition from Neanderthals to modern human Aurignacian. Sterile layers coeval with GS12 precede the Aurignacian throughout the middle and upper Danube region. In some records from the northern Iberian Peninsula, such layers are coeval with GS11 and separate the Châtelperronian from the Aurignacian. Sterile layers preceding the Aurignacian in the remaining Châtelperronian domain are coeval with GS10 and the previously reported 40.0- to 40.8-ka cal BP [calendar years before present (1950)] time range of Neanderthals' disappearance from most of Europe. This suggests that ecologic stress during stadial expansion of steppe landscape caused a diachronous pattern of depopulation of Neanderthals, which facilitated repopulation by modern humans who appear to have been better adapted to this environment. Consecutive depopulation-repopulation cycles during severe stadials of the middle pleniglacial may principally explain the repeated replacement of Europe's population and its genetic composition.}, } @article {pmid30147799, year = {2018}, author = {Wamsler, C}, title = {Mind the gap: The role of mindfulness in adapting to increasing risk and climate change.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {1121-1135}, doi = {10.1007/s11625-017-0524-3}, pmid = {30147799}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {It is becoming clear that increasingly complex global challenges cannot simply be solved by new technology or governments alone. We also need to develop new social practices and encourage a broader cultural shift towards sustainability. Against this background, this paper explores the role of mindfulness in adapting to increasing risk and climate change. Based on a literature review, it assesses current research on 'mindful climate adaptation', and explores how individual mindfulness is linked to climate adaptation. While in practice mindfulness-based approaches to climate adaptation have gained widespread recognition (e.g., by the United Nations), the results show that related research is scarce and fragmented. There is almost no research into the role of mindfulness in climate adaptation. At the same time, new scientific domains are opening up in cognate fields that illuminate the mindfulness-adaptation nexus from certain perspectives. These fields include: (1) disaster management; (2) individual well-being; (3) organisational management; (4) environmental behaviour; (5) social justice; and (6) knowledge production. As new concepts and approaches emerge, they require critical construct validation and empirical testing. The importance of further investigation is supported by a complementary empirical study, which shows that individual mindfulness disposition coincides with increased motivation to take (or support) climate adaptation actions. The paper concludes that mindfulness has the potential to facilitate adaptation at all scales (through cognitive, managerial, structural, ontological, and epistemological change processes) and should, therefore, become a core element in climate and associated sustainability research. Finally, it sketches the conceptual trajectories of the mindfulness-adaptation nexus and presents a pioneering, comprehensive framework for 'mindful climate adaptation'.}, } @article {pmid30147786, year = {2018}, author = {Jerneck, A}, title = {Taking gender seriously in climate change adaptation and sustainability science research: views from feminist debates and sub-Saharan small-scale agriculture.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {403-416}, doi = {10.1007/s11625-017-0464-y}, pmid = {30147786}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {People, places, and production contributing the least to climate change will suffer the most. This calls for adaptation as a key climate change response. But adaptation is surrounded by problems. Finance is uncertain and fragmented, mainstreaming into development is complicated, and technical solutions often overshadow existing social relations and institutions. From a gender perspective, and as a critical research initiative to support the building of sustainability science as an umbrella field, this article raises three pertinent questions on adaptation in the global South: what is its purpose, how can development inform it, and what institutions in terms of rights and responsibilities are core to it? Focusing on sub-Saharan small-scale agriculture, three main points emerge. Regarding the purpose, adaptation should be a transformative pathway out of poverty, ill-health, and food insecurity. Regarding development, adaptation can learn from how development theory, policy, and practice have addressed women, gender, and environment in varied settings and debates. Regarding core institutions, adaptation must address gender regimes that regulate access to, use of, and control over resources, especially those defining land distribution, labour division, and strategic decision-making power. To conclude, I propose gender-informed research questions for further inquiry.}, } @article {pmid30147284, year = {2018}, author = {Woods, R and Coen, S and Fernández, A}, title = {Moral (dis)engagement with anthropogenic climate change in online comments on newspaper articles.}, journal = {Journal of community & applied social psychology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {244-257}, doi = {10.1002/casp.2355}, pmid = {30147284}, issn = {1052-9284}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is widely acknowledged to be morally significant, but little is known about everyday moralising around ACC. We addressed this gap via quantified thematic analysis of 300 online comments to British newspaper articles on ACC, drawing on Bandura's moral disengagement theory. Moral disengagement through denial of ACC was widespread. Other disengagement strategies, such as palliative comparison and diminishing agency, occurred less often. There was also some moral engagement, most often through assertions of the existence of ACC and/or its harmful effects. Moral disengagement was significantly more common in comments on right wing than left wing newspapers, whereas the opposite was true of moral engagement. Although Bandura's framework provided a useful starting point to make sense of ACC moralising, it did not capture moral concerns that extended beyond its "harm/care" remit. In particular, many "denial" comments included a "dishonesty" discourse, whereby ACC proponents were accused of deception for ulterior motives. To classify this discourse as moral disengagement obscures its engagement with a different set of moral issues around trust and honesty. We suggest that Bandura's theory represents one possible "moral landscape" around ACC and could be extended to encompass a broader range of moral concerns.}, } @article {pmid30141151, year = {2018}, author = {Rymbai, D and Sheikh, FM}, title = {The insight of agricultural adaptation to climate change: a case of rice growers in Eastern Himalaya, India.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {10}, pages = {1833-1845}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1586-3}, pmid = {30141151}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Adaptation is crucial to curb down the negative impact of climate change particularly on agricultural sector. Hence, a study was conducted to identify the strategies adopted by the cereal growers in Eastern Himalaya region of India and determine the factors affecting them. A total 120 farmers were surveyed from Senapati district in Manipur and East Sikkim district in Sikkim. The widely adopted strategies were the change in transplanting time and change in transplanting as well as harvesting time, which were autonomous, traditional, and taken in response to the scarcity of water. Tobit model has identified that the area under rice cultivation, support received from Village Science Centre, and decline in food availability positively influenced the farmers to adapt to climate change. Multinomial logit model revealed that the female farmers, area under rice cultivation, and decline in rice productivity positively influenced the adoption of the strategies, whereas number of cattle owned, irrigated area, and support from Agricultural Department revealed the negative influence. To sustain farming in hill agriculture, the study recommends the integration of the farmers' knowledge along with scientific measures. Planned intervention, viz., in the form of construction of water harvesting structure, should be initiated by the State Government.}, } @article {pmid30140980, year = {2018}, author = {Buse, CG}, title = {Why should public health agencies across Canada conduct climate change and health vulnerability assessments?.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17269/s41997-018-0118-6}, pmid = {30140980}, issn = {1920-7476}, support = {16654//Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly impacting population health outcomes related to several areas of public health service delivery across Canada, and internationally. As a result, public health practitioners are increasingly looking for guidance on how to begin planning for and adapting to a myriad of health-related climate impacts. This paper outlines several benefits for local or regional health agencies in conducting climate change and health vulnerability assessments (CCHVAs), based on the author's experience in conducting two of Canada's first comprehensive assessments. These benefits include, but are not limited to establishing suitable baseline understandings of past, present, and future climate-related health risks; providing guidance on mechanisms to reduce health inequities that may be exacerbated by climate change; generating credibility for health agencies to engage with climate change and pursue collaborative, intersectoral relationships with a range of likely and unlikely allies; identifying suitable, cost-effective adaptation options in the form of public health programming; and encouraging decision-makers to produce proactive policy actions to redress potential climate impacts on population health. Completing a CCHVA can directly optimize health agencies' and their allies' efforts to respond to the health imperatives associated with climate change, while also fueling adaptation options that yield co-benefits across a variety of sectors.}, } @article {pmid30136323, year = {2018}, author = {Bhattacharyya, S and Dawson, DA and Hipperson, H and Ishtiaq, F}, title = {A diet rich in C3 plants reveals the sensitivity of an alpine mammal to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14842}, pmid = {30136323}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {//Pro Natura Foundation, Japan/ ; //Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology/ ; //Commonwealth Scholarship Commission/ ; //Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance/ ; }, abstract = {Plant-herbivore interactions provide critical insights into the mechanisms that govern the spatiotemporal distributions of organisms. These interactions are crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change, which are likely to have an effect on the population dynamics of alpine herbivores. The Royle's pika (Ochotona roylei, hereafter pika) is a lagomorph found in the western Himalaya and is dependent on alpine plants that are at risk from climate change. As the main prey of many carnivores in the region, the pika plays a crucial role in trophic interactions. We examined topographical features, plant genera presence and seasonal dynamics as drivers of the plant richness in the pika's diet across an elevational gradient (2,600-4,450 m). We identified 79 plant genera in the faecal pellets of pikas, of which 89% were forbs, >60% were endemic to the Himalaya, and 97.5% of the diet plant genera identified followed the C3 photosynthetic pathway. We found that, during the premonsoon season, the number of genera in the pika's diet decreased with increasing elevation. We demonstrate that a large area of talus supports greater plant diversity and, not surprisingly, results in higher species richness in the pika's diet. However, in talus habitat with deep crevices, pikas consumed fewer plant genera suggesting they may be foraging suboptimally due to predation risk. The continued increase in global temperature is expected to have an effect on the distribution dynamics of C3 plants and consequently influence pika diet and distribution, resulting in a significant negative cascading effect on the Himalayan ecosystem.}, } @article {pmid30133464, year = {2018}, author = {Weber, J and Wohland, J and Reyers, M and Moemken, J and Hoppe, C and Pinto, JG and Witthaut, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on backup energy and storage needs in wind-dominated power systems in Europe.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0201457}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0201457}, pmid = {30133464}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable generation, especially in countries with a high share of renewables. We show that strong climate change is likely to impede the system integration of intermittent wind energy. To this end, we analyze the temporal characteristics of wind power generation based on high-resolution climate projections for Europe and uncover a robust increase of backup energy and storage needs in most of Central, Northern and North-Western Europe. This effect can be traced back to an increase of the likelihood for long periods of low wind generation and an increase in the seasonal wind variability.}, } @article {pmid30131478, year = {2018}, author = {Hayes, K and Poland, B}, title = {Addressing Mental Health in a Changing Climate: Incorporating Mental Health Indicators into Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15091806}, pmid = {30131478}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {A growing number of health authorities around the world are conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments; however, few explore impacts and adaptations related to mental health. We argue for an expanded conceptualization of health that includes both the physiological and psychological aspects of climate change and health. Through a review of the global literature on mental health and climate change, this analytical review explores how mental health can be integrated into climate change and health vulnerability assessments and concludes with recommendations for integrating mental health within climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments.}, } @article {pmid30131432, year = {2018}, author = {Day, JA and Fung, IY and Liu, W}, title = {Reply to Li et al: Late 20th-century drought in northern China reflects influence of global warming, aerosols, and natural variability.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {36}, pages = {E8329}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1812309115}, pmid = {30131432}, issn = {1091-6490}, } @article {pmid30129483, year = {2018}, author = {Wingard, D and Trejo, J and Gudea, M and Goodman, S and Reznik, V}, title = {Faculty Equity, Diversity, Culture and Climate Change in Academic Medicine: A Longitudinal Study.}, journal = {Journal of the National Medical Association}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jnma.2018.05.004}, pmid = {30129483}, issn = {0027-9684}, abstract = {There is a national call for academic medicine to use evidence-based initiatives to improve its culture and climate. The authors report data-driven policy and programmatic interventions that were associated with increased faculty diversity, equity, respectful behavior and improved faculty climate, at UC San Diego Health Sciences.

METHODS: Based on demographic and survey data, interventions were designed to improve the climate between 2005 and 2015. Interventions included routine measuring and dissemination of demographic data, changes and dissemination of policy and procedures, and new and improved faculty development programming. Impact was measured using demographic data over time, salary equity studies, and school-wide climate surveys in 2005, 2011, and 2015. Specific outcomes included measures of diversity, salary equity, behavior, and climate.

RESULTS: Over the ten-year period, the proportion of women increased from 16% to 23% of tenure/tenure-track faculty and 31%-40% of all faculty. Underrepresented minority faculty increased from less than 1%-7% of tenure/tenure-track faculty and from 5% to 8% of all faculty. While women continued to be paid less than men, the adjusted difference dropped from 23% to 12%. Reports of inappropriate behavior by faculty decreased significantly, while satisfaction and knowledge about institutional mentoring and resources improved.

CONCLUSION: Multiple interventions including new faculty development programs, changes in policy, and measuring demographics/climate supported diverse faculty recruitment, enhanced a culture of respect and improved faculty morale. Cultural changes in policy, periodic faculty data collection with dissemination, and increased faculty development, improve the climate in academic medicine.}, } @article {pmid30128861, year = {2018}, author = {Mendoza-Ponce, A and Corona-Núñez, RO and Galicia, L and Kraxner, F}, title = {Identifying hotspots of land use cover change under socioeconomic and climate change scenarios in Mexico.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-1085-0}, pmid = {30128861}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {This study identifies the hotspots of land use cover change (LUCC) under two socioeconomic and climate change scenarios [business as usual (BAU) and a pessimistic scenario] at the national level for Mexico for three-time periods. Modelling suggests that by 2050 grassland and tropical evergreen forest will be the most endangered ecosystems, having lost 20-33% (BAU) or 43-46% (pessimistic scenario) of their extent in comparison to 1993. Agricultural expansion would be the major driver of LUCC, increasing from 24.4% of the country in 1993 to 30% (BAU) or 34% (pessimistic) in 2050. The most influential variables were distance from roads and human settlements, slope, aridity, and evapotranspiration. The hotspots of LUCC were influenced by environmental constraints and socioeconomic activities more than by climate change. These findings could be used to build proposals to reduce deforestation, including multiple feedbacks among urbanization, industrialization and food consumption.}, } @article {pmid30127444, year = {2018}, author = {Ali, SA and Aadhar, S and Shah, HL and Mishra, V}, title = {Projected Increase in Hydropower Production in India under Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {12450}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-30489-4}, pmid = {30127444}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Hydropower is a valuable renewable energy resource in India, which can help in climate change mitigation and meet the increasing energy demands. However, the crucial role of climate change on hydropower production in India remains unexplored. Here using the observations and model simulations, we show that seven large hydropower projects experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) warming and a decline in precipitation and streamflow during the observed period of 1951-2007. However, all the hydropower projects are projected to experience a warmer and wetter climate in the future. Multimodel ensemble mean annual average temperature (precipitation) is projected to rise up to 6.3 ± 1.6 °C (18 ± 14.6%) in the catchments upstream of the other reservoirs by the end of the 21st century under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Due to the projected increase in precipitation, mean annual streamflow (up to +45%) and hydropower (up to +25%) production are projected to rise under the future climate. However, significant warming (6.25 ± 1.62 °C) is projected to result in a decline in streamflow and hydropower production in May- June for snow-dominated Nathpa Jhakri and Bhakra Nangal hydropower projects. Our results provide insights into the development and planning of hydropower projects in India under the current projected future climate.}, } @article {pmid30125314, year = {2018}, author = {Middaugh, CR and Magoulick, DD}, title = {Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0202737}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0202737}, pmid = {30125314}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change will affect stream systems in numerous ways over the coming century. Globally, streams are expected to experience changes in temperature and flow regime. Previous work has indicated that these changes will likely affect fish distributions, but little work has been conducted examining population level effects of climate change on warmwater fish at the warmest portion of their range. We model several potential climate change-related stressors and the resulting effects on smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu populations in the Buffalo National River, Arkansas, USA, located near the southern extent of smallmouth bass range. Smallmouth bass are a popular recreational fish in the region and angler harvest likely contributes substantially to annual mortality. We created a simulation model parameterized with data collected from the Buffalo National River to evaluate the relative importance of climate stressors and angler harvest on smallmouth bass populations. Our simulations suggest that increases in springtime temperature and reductions in river discharge during the spawning period could increase recruitment, resulting in increases in adult abundance (8% higher). However, when increased flooding and drought probabilities are considered, our model indicates the Buffalo National River could experience large reductions in adult smallmouth bass abundance (≥50% decline) and increased probability of extinction compared to present levels. Simulations showed that harvest reduction could be a viable strategy to reduce the negative effects of climate change, but that even with complete closure of harvest, smallmouth bass population levels would still be well below present abundance (46% lower than present). Efforts to reduce flooding and drought effects related to climate change in the Buffalo National River could help offset the predicted reduction in the smallmouth bass population.}, } @article {pmid30121528, year = {2019}, author = {Gorguner, M and Kavvas, ML and Ishida, K}, title = {Assessing the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin in Turkey by using dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {648}, number = {}, pages = {481-499}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.167}, pmid = {30121528}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Gediz Basin is a Mediterranean watershed along the Aegean coast of Turkey, in which the most important economic activity is agriculture. Over the last few decades, this basin has been experiencing water-related problems such as water scarcity and competing use of water. This study assesses the impact of future climate change on the availability of water resources in the Gediz Basin during the 21st century by investigating the inflows into the major reservoir in the basin, Demirkopru Reservoir, which is the major source of irrigation water to the basin. The analysis in this study involves setting up a coupled hydro-climate model over the Gediz Basin by coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the physically-based Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) model. First, the WRF model is used to reconstruct the historical climatic variables over the basin by dynamically downscaling the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The calibrated and validated WRF model is then used to dynamically downscale eight different future climate projections over the Gediz Basin to a much finer resolution (6 km), which is more appropriate for the hydrologic modeling of the basin. These climate projections are from four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5, under two IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The outputs from the WRF model are then input into the WEHY model, which is calibrated and validated over the basin, to simulate the hydrological processes within the basin and to obtain the projected future inflows into the Demirkopru Reservoir. Results of the future analysis over the 21st century (2017-2100) are then compared to the historical values (1985-2012) to investigate the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin.}, } @article {pmid30120891, year = {2018}, author = {Caminade, C and McIntyre, KM and Jones, AE}, title = {Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.13950}, pmid = {30120891}, issn = {1749-6632}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.}, } @article {pmid30115798, year = {2018}, author = {Bongaarts, J and O'Neill, BC}, title = {Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6403}, pages = {650-652}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat8680}, pmid = {30115798}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Family Planning Policy ; Global Warming/*prevention & control ; Humans ; *Population Control ; *Population Growth ; }, } @article {pmid30114866, year = {2018}, author = {Parise, I}, title = {A brief review of global climate change and the public health consequences.}, journal = {Australian journal of general practice}, volume = {47}, number = {7}, pages = {451-456}, pmid = {30114866}, issn = {2208-7958}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change (GCC) will have an enormous impact on public health in the 21st century. Evidence clearly implicates the use of fossil fuels and the resultant anthropogenic greenhouse gases as the major source of GCC.

OBJECTIVE: This paper seeks to examine briefly the association between fossil fuels and GCC, the consequent environmental changes and the predicted public health effects.

DISCUSSION: Complex and interrelated climate changes are forecast to present immense challenges, including increased morbidity and mortality, arising from heatwaves, extreme weather events, infectious and non-communicable diseases. The subsequent health effects, modulated by socioeconomic determinants, will be distributed inequitably primarily to vulnerable populations, largely in the tropics. A response to GCC is urgently required, involving strategies to mitigate and adapt to GCC. Not only will general practitioners be managing health conditions caused by GCC, but they are also well placed in the community to advocate for GCC mitigation.}, } @article {pmid30113710, year = {2018}, author = {Peters, K}, title = {Disasters, climate change, and securitisation: the United Nations Security Council and the United Kingdom's security policy.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {42 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {S196-S214}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12307}, pmid = {30113710}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Public Policy ; *Security Measures ; United Kingdom ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Since climate change was included on the United Nations Security Council's agenda in 2007, there has been much debate about whether or not it has been securitised. This paper starts from the premise that climate change has undergone a partial securitisation-that is, a gradual process wherein political choices are made to frame certain issues in particular ways. Climate change has been reframed from a purely developmental and environmental concern to one that impels foreign policy and security domains. This paper makes a novel contribution to disasters, climate change, and security studies by arguing that explicit and implicit links to natural hazard-related disasters have been employed as part of a gradual process of securitisation, or, more specifically, the partial securitisation of climate change. This is demonstrated by drawing on two cases: United Nations Security Council debates between 2007 and 2017; and the United Kingdom's security policy between 1997 and 2017.}, } @article {pmid30112780, year = {2018}, author = {Diovisalvi, N and Odriozola, M and Garcia de Souza, J and Rojas Molina, F and Fontanarrosa, MS and Escaray, R and Bustingorry, J and Sanzano, P and Grosman, F and Zagarese, H}, title = {Species-specific phenological trends in shallow Pampean lakes' (Argentina) zooplankton driven by contemporary climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5137-5148}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14423}, pmid = {30112780}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {PAMPA2//CONICET/ ; PICT-2015-3539//ANPCyT/ ; }, abstract = {The relationship between the timing of recurrent biological events and seasonal climatic patterns (i.e., phenology) is a crucial ecological process. Changes in phenology are increasingly linked to global climate change. However, current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is subjected to substantial regional and seasonal biases. Most available evidence on climate-driven phenological changes comes from Northern Hemisphere (NH) ecosystems and typically involves increases in spring and summer temperatures, which translate into earlier onsets of spring population developments. In the Argentine Pampa region, warming has occurred at a much slower pace than in the NH, and trends are mostly restricted to increases in the minimum temperatures. We used zooplankton abundance data from Lake Chascomús (recorded every two weeks from 2005 to 2015) to evaluate potential changes in phenology. We adopted a sequential screening approach to identify taxa displaying phenological trends and evaluated whether such trends could be associated to observe long-term changes in water temperature. Two zooplankton species displayed significant later shifts in phenology metrics (end date of Brachionus havanaensis seasonal distribution: 31 day/decade, onset and end dates of Keratella americana seasonal distribution: 59 day/decade and 82 day/decade, respectively). The timing of the observed shift in B. havanaensis phenology was coincident with a warming trend in the May lake water temperature (4.7°C per decade). Analysis of abundance versus temperature patterns from six additional shallow Pampean lakes, and evaluation of previous experimental results, provided further evidence that the lake water warming trend in May was responsible for the delayed decline of B. havanaensis populations in autumn. This study is the first report of freshwater zooplankton phenology changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH).}, } @article {pmid30111788, year = {2018}, author = {Frölicher, TL and Fischer, EM and Gruber, N}, title = {Marine heatwaves under global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7718}, pages = {360-364}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9}, pmid = {30111788}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3-11 and fisheries12-14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.}, } @article {pmid30111485, year = {2018}, author = {Ricciardi, W}, title = {1st scientific symposium on Health and Climate Change, Italian National Institute of Health, 3-5th December 2018, Rome, Italy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {643}, number = {}, pages = {A1}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.096}, pmid = {30111485}, issn = {1879-1026}, } @article {pmid30109679, year = {2018}, author = {Sracek, O and Kříbek, B and Mihaljevič, M and Ettler, V and Vaněk, A and Penížek, V and Filip, J and Veselovský, F and Nyambe, I}, title = {The impact of wetland on neutral mine drainage from mining wastes at Luanshya in the Zambian Copperbelt in the framework of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {29}, pages = {28961-28972}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-2929-7}, pmid = {30109679}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The impact of a natural wetland ("dambo" in Zambia) on neutral mine drainage at Luanshya in the Zambian Copperbelt has been investigated during an intermediate discharge period (July) using a multi-method characterization of solid phase samples, sequential extraction analysis, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy combined with water analyses, isotopic analyses, and geochemical modeling. In the wetland, the principal identified solid phases in sediments were carbonates, gypsum, and ferric oxyhydroxides. A significant portion of the ochres was present as insoluble hematite. Mine drainage pH values decrease, and log [Formula: see text] values increase after inflow of water into the wetland; dissolved and suspended concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu, and Co also decrease. Based on speciation calculations, there is no precipitation of secondary Cu and Co minerals in the period of sampling, but it can occur later in dry period when the flow rate is reduced. Concentrations of sulfate decrease, and values of δ34S(SO4) in the wetland increase in parallel, suggesting sulfate reduction is occurring. In more advanced dry period, the discharge in mine drainage stream is probably much lower and water can reach supersaturation with respect to minerals such as gypsum, which has been found in sediments. Wetlands have a positive impact on mine drainage water quality due to the removal of metals by adsorption, co-precipitation, and filtration of colloids. However, there can also be a rebound of contamination by seepage inflow downstream from the wetland. Ongoing climate change with extreme hydrologic events may enhance differences between dry and rainy seasons with resulting faster mobilization of contaminants.}, } @article {pmid30108575, year = {2018}, author = {de Souza, MS and Muelbert, JH and Costa, LDF and Klering, EV and Yunes, JS}, title = {Environmental Variability and Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Subtropical Coastal Lagoon: Searching for a Sign of Climate Change Effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1727}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2018.01727}, pmid = {30108575}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Cyanobacterial blooms in marine and freshwater environments may be favored by shifts in physical water column parameters due to warming under climate change. The Patos Lagoon (PL), a subtropical coastal environment in southern Brazil, is known for recurrent blooms of Microcystis aeruginosa complex (MAC). Here, we analyze the variability of these blooms and their relation to changes in wind direction and speed, rainfall and freshwater run-off from 2000 to 2017. Also, we discuss both longer time-series of air temperature and rainfall and a review of local studies with microcystins produced by these noxious species. Since the 1980s, MAC blooms were associated to negative anomalies in annual precipitation that occur during La Niña periods and, in the last years (2001-2014), accompanied by a trend in low river discharge. MAC blooms were conspicuous from December to March, i.e., austral summer, with massive patches seen in satellite images as for 2017. We suggest that low rainfall and run-off years under NE wind-driven hydrodynamics might accumulate MAC biomass in the west margin of the PL system. In contrast, a positive, long-term trend in precipitation (from 1950 to 2016; slope = 3.9868 mm/yr, p < 0.05) should imply in high river discharge and, consequently, advection of this biomass to the adjacent coastal region. Due to the proximity to urban areas, the blooms can represent recreational and economic hazards to the region.}, } @article {pmid30108213, year = {2018}, author = {Sévellec, F and Drijfhout, SS}, title = {A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3024}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05442-8}, pmid = {30108213}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018-2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.}, } @article {pmid30108186, year = {2018}, author = {Ornes, S}, title = {Core Concept: How does climate change influence extreme weather? Impact attribution research seeks answers.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {33}, pages = {8232-8235}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811393115}, pmid = {30108186}, issn = {1091-6490}, } @article {pmid30107770, year = {2018}, author = {Shorthouse, M and Stone, L}, title = {Inequity amplified: climate change, the Australian farmer, and mental health.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {4}, pages = {156-157}, pmid = {30107770}, issn = {1326-5377}, } @article {pmid30107308, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, Z and Cui, C and Peng, S}, title = {Critical sectors and paths for climate change mitigation within supply chain networks.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {30-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.08.018}, pmid = {30107308}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Certain sectors and paths along supply chains play a critical role in climate change mitigation. We develope a consumption-based framework, which combines input-output analysis, a power-of-pull approach and structural path analysis, and applied it to supply chain networks derived from 2010 and 2012 Jing-Jin-Ji interregional input-output tables. The aim of this study is to identify (1) the key economic sectors for controlling carbon emissions and their changes, (2) the critical directions from a carbon-pulling sector to the emissions of key economic sectors, and (3) the paths with the largest carbon emissions flux in these critical directions. Our results show that the key sectors are from Hebei and Tianjin, more concentrated in Hebei. Most sectors have the largest pulling power over their own carbon emissions, and within-region connections dominated in the emission network, with a stronger tie between Beijing and the other two regions. Critical paths along carbon-pulling directions are located in tiers 0 and 1. Our framework can provide new insight into the creation of carbon emissions control policies.}, } @article {pmid30103482, year = {2018}, author = {Bi, W and Weng, B and Yuan, Z and Ye, M and Zhang, C and Zhao, Y and Yan, D and Xu, T}, title = {Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15081724}, pmid = {30103482}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration-climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.}, } @article {pmid30103037, year = {2019}, author = {Guo, Y and Li, X and Zhao, Z and Nawaz, Z}, title = {Predicting the impacts of climate change, soils and vegetation types on the geographic distribution of Polyporus umbellatus in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {648}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.465}, pmid = {30103037}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Polyporus umbellatus is a fungus that has been used medically as a diuretic for thousands of years in China. To evaluate the impacts of climatic change on the distribution of P. umbellatus, we selected the annual mean air temperature, isothermality, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality and used observations from the 2000s and simulated values from two future periods (2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080) to build an ensemble model (EM); then, we developed a comprehensive habitat suitability model by integrating soil and vegetation conditions into the EM to assess the distribution of suitable P. umbellatus habitats across China in the 2000s and the two future periods. Our results show that annual precipitation and annual mean air temperature together largely determine the distribution of P. umbellatus and those suitable P. umbellatus habitats generally occur in areas with an optimal annual precipitation of approximately 1000 mm and an optimal annual mean air temperature of approximately 13 °C. In other words, P. umbellatus requires a humid and cool environment for growth. In addition, brown soils with a granular structure and low acidity are more suitable for P. umbellatus. Furthermore, we have observed that the distribution of P. umbellatus is usually associated with the presence of coniferous, mixed coniferous, and broad-leaved forests, suggesting that these vegetation types are suitable habitats for P. umbellatus. In the future, annual precipitation and annual mean air temperature will continue to increase, consequently increasing the availability of habitats suitable for P. umbellatus in northeastern and southwestern China but likely leading to a degradation of suitable P. umbellatus habitats in central China.}, } @article {pmid30095156, year = {2018}, author = {Møller, AP and Erritzøe, J and van Dongen, S}, title = {Body size, developmental instability, and climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {2049-2056}, doi = {10.1111/evo.13570}, pmid = {30095156}, issn = {1558-5646}, abstract = {Development is often temperature-dependent. We hypothesized smaller size and larger asymmetry with increasing temperatures. However, we also predicted associations with asymmetry to differ among traits that differ in their degree of functional importance (especially the functional wings in migratory birds were predicted to be more canalized), timing of development (skeletal [femur, tarsus, and humerus] vs. feather [wing and tail traits]). We analyzed a large dataset of which we included species with at least 20 specimens resulting in 5533 asymmetry values in 1593 individuals from 66 species. There was a consistent significant decrease in size with temperature across all traits. Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) for wings and femur was on average lower, suggesting higher canalization, and it decreased with migration distance, however that was not the case for the other traits. FA increased with increasing temperature for wings, but not for the other characters, where the different responses of different characters to temperature were significant. Because there was no significant three-way interaction between temperature, migration distance, and character, the asymmetry-temperature response was similar in migratory and resident species. These findings imply that climate warming reduces size of all traits and decreases developmental instability of wings in birds.}, } @article {pmid30093836, year = {2018}, author = {Groot, L and Swart, J}, title = {Climate change control: the Lindahl solution.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {757-782}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-017-9758-8}, pmid = {30093836}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate different burden sharing rules with respect to abatement of carbon emissions. We evaluate seven different rules both in terms of their redistributive impact and by the extent to which they realize the aim of optimal abatement. We show that the Lindahl solution, where the burden sharing rule of carbon abatement is determined by each region's willingness to pay, is to be preferred above the non-cooperative Nash outcome. Poor regions however would prefer the social planner outcome with a global permit market, because then the burden sharing rule has a secondary role of income redistribution by means of transfers from rich to poor, on top of its primary role of assigning abatement burdens. Based on these findings, we argue that in order to control global greenhouse gas emissions, the level of individual country emission abatement effort should be a function of their willingness to pay to curb climate change, rather than their historical emissions or ability to abate.}, } @article {pmid30093833, year = {2018}, author = {Fellmann, T and Witzke, P and Weiss, F and Van Doorslaer, B and Drabik, D and Huck, I and Salputra, G and Jansson, T and Leip, A}, title = {Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {451-468}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-017-9743-2}, pmid = {30093833}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.}, } @article {pmid30093831, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, Z and Smyth, CE and Lemprière, TC and Rampley, GJ and Kurz, WA}, title = {Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {257-290}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-016-9735-7}, pmid = {30093831}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO2e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017-2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC's greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO2e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.}, } @article {pmid30093829, year = {2018}, author = {Klostermann, J and van de Sandt, K and Harley, M and Hildén, M and Leiter, T and van Minnen, J and Pieterse, N and van Bree, L}, title = {Towards a framework to assess, compare and develop monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation in Europe.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {187-209}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-015-9678-4}, pmid = {30093829}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Adaptation is increasingly recognised as essential when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change on societies, economies and the environment. However, there is insufficient information about the effectiveness of adaption policies, measures and actions. For this reason, the establishment of monitoring programmes is considered to be necessary. Such programmes can contribute to knowledge, learning and data to support adaptation governance. In the European Union (EU), member states are encouraged to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). The NASs developed so far vary widely because of differing views, approaches and policies. A number of member states have progressed to monitoring and evaluating the implementation of their NAS. It is possible to identify key elements in these monitoring programmes that can inform the wider policy learning process. In this paper, four generic building blocks for creating a monitoring and evaluation programme are proposed: (1) definition of the system of interest, (2) selection of a set of indicators, (3) identification of the organisations responsible for monitoring and (4) definition of monitoring and evaluation procedures. The monitoring programmes for NAS in three member states-Finland, the UK and Germany-were analysed to show how these elements have been used in practice, taking into account their specific contexts. It is asserted that the provision of a common framework incorporating these elements will help other member states and organisations within them in setting up and improving their adaptation monitoring programmes.}, } @article {pmid30093725, year = {2018}, author = {Junium, CK and Dickson, AJ and Uveges, BT}, title = {Perturbation to the nitrogen cycle during rapid Early Eocene global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3186}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05486-w}, pmid = {30093725}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {1455258//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {The degree to which ocean deoxygenation will alter the function of marine communities remains unclear but may be best constrained by detailed study of intervals of rapid warming in the geologic past. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of rapid warming that was the result of increasing contents of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that had wide ranging effects on ecosystems globally. Here, we present stable nitrogen isotope data from the Eastern Peri-Tethys Ocean that record a significant transition in the nitrogen cycle. At the initiation of the PETM, the nitrogen isotopic composition of sediments decreased by ~6‰ to as low as -3.4‰, signaling reorganization of the marine nitrogen cycle. Warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation caused a transition to nitrogen cycle to conditions that were most similar to those experienced during Oceanic Anoxic Events of the Mesozoic.}, } @article {pmid30092826, year = {2018}, author = {Chalghaf, B and Chemkhi, J and Mayala, B and Harrabi, M and Benie, GB and Michael, E and Ben Salah, A}, title = {Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of Leishmania vectors in the Mediterranean basin: impact of climate change.}, journal = {Parasites & vectors}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {461}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-018-3019-x}, pmid = {30092826}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {grant number S-LMAQM-12-GR-1145//American Association for the Advancement of Science/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45°N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50○N. Recent studies show that some phlebotomine sand flies were recorded in several parts of Germany and Belgium. In central Europe, some autochthone leishmaniasis cases are being recorded in regions traditionally regarded as leishmaniasis-free. An important challenge is to predict the geographical distribution of leishmaniasis vectors under new climatic conditions. In this study, we attempted to predict the current distribution of six leishmaniasis vectors in the Mediterranean basin and forecast species' geographical shift under future climate scenarios using an ensemble ecological niche modeling approach. Species records were obtained from scientific surveys published in the research literature between 2006 and 2016. A series of climate metrics describing temperature and precipitation in the study area under two climatic scenarios were obtained from WorldClim database. A consensus model was derived from six varieties of modeling approaches (regression, machine learning and classification techniques) in order to ensure valid prediction of distribution of vectors under different climate scenarios.

RESULTS: Model performance was generally high for the included species with a specificity (true negative rate) ranging from 81.03 to 96.52% (mean = 86.94%) and a sensitivity (true positive rate) ranging from 87.93 to 100% (mean = 96.98%). Our work evidenced the hypothesis of the widespread of Leishmania vectors under climate change scenarios. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are actually not suitable for vectors' survival. Phlebotomine sand flies are prospected to invade extra-Mediterranean regions, especially western and central Europe.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed the importance of environmental and climate factors on the distribution of leishmaniasis vectors and demonstrated the performance of ecological niche modeling in the prediction of the geographical spread of vector-borne diseases. Ecological niche modeling should be considered in the future as a valuable tool in addition to experimental laboratory studies for a better understanding of the biology of vector species.}, } @article {pmid30087469, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Hunger's toll looks set to grow with tough action on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7717}, pages = {144}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05837-z}, pmid = {30087469}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30083934, year = {2018}, author = {Godoy-Vitorino, F and Toledo-Hernandez, C}, title = {Reef-Building Corals as a Tool for Climate Change Research in the Genomics Era.}, journal = {Results and problems in cell differentiation}, volume = {65}, number = {}, pages = {529-546}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-92486-1_23}, pmid = {30083934}, issn = {0080-1844}, support = {P20 GM103475/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Coral reef ecosystems are among the most biodiverse habitats in the marine realm. They not only contribute with a plethora of ecosystem services, but they also are beneficial to humankind via nurturing marine fisheries and sustaining recreational activities. We will discuss the biology of coral reefs and their ecophysiology including the complex bacterial microbiota associated with them.}, } @article {pmid30083425, year = {2018}, author = {Olabisi, LS and Azhar, GS and Abbott, M and Lempert, RJ}, title = {Participatory Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Public Health in Long Beach, California: Discussion from a Workshop Hosted by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition.}, journal = {Rand health quarterly}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {4}, pmid = {30083425}, issn = {2162-8254}, abstract = {Participatory modeling aims to incorporate stakeholders into the process of developing models for the purpose of eliciting information, appropriately reflecting stakeholder interests and concerns, and improving stakeholder understanding, and acceptance of the analysis. Participatory modeling, using causal loop diagramming (CLD), was used to explore the impact of climate change on public health in Long Beach, California. CLD, commonly used in participatory modeling, provided useful information to serve as the basis for a quantitative system dynamics model to protect the citizens of Long Beach, and potentially other cities or regions affected by climate change. Diverse stakeholders constructed CLDs depicting the impacts of climate change on public health in Long Beach. This exercise aimed to (1) identify public health issues that might be caused or exacerbated by climate change; (2) examine the systemic connections between climate change and other drivers of public health/illness and mortality; and (3) identify feedback loops to gain an understanding of how climate change could impact public health over coming decades. Six groups of five stakeholders were tasked with depicting the impacts of climate change on public health. Each group designated a key health outcome of concern on a citywide scale, including critical drivers of the outcome at higher and lower scales if necessary (for example, state laws, or household-level decisions that affect health outcomes in the aggregate). Social, environmental, political, and economic variables were all considered. After the small group diagramming exercise, groups presented diagram results to other participants, and the discussion around the diagrams was recorded.}, } @article {pmid30083173, year = {2018}, author = {Six, DL and Vergobbi, C and Cutter, M}, title = {Are Survivors Different? Genetic-Based Selection of Trees by Mountain Pine Beetle During a Climate Change-Driven Outbreak in a High-Elevation Pine Forest.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {993}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.00993}, pmid = {30083173}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Increased mortality of forest trees, driven directly or indirectly by climate change, is occurring around the world. In western North America, whitebark pine, a high elevation keystone species, and lodgepole pine, a widespread ecologically and economically important tree, have experienced extensive mortality in recent climate-driven outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle. However, even in stands experiencing high levels of mortality, some mature trees have survived. We hypothesized that the outbreak acted as a natural selection event, removing trees most susceptible to the beetle and least adapted to warmer drier conditions. If this was the case, genetic change would be expected at loci underlying beetle resistance. Given we did not know the basis for resistance, we used inter-simple sequence repeats to compare the genetic profiles of two sets of trees, survivors (mature, living trees) and general population (trees just under the diameter preferred by the beetles and expected to approximate the genetic structure of each tree species at the site without beetle selection). This method detects high levels of polymorphism and has often been able to detect patterns associated with phenotypic traits. For both whitebark and lodgepole pine, survivors and general population trees mostly segregated independently indicating a genetic basis for survivorship. Exceptions were a few general population trees that segregated with survivors in proportions roughly reflecting the proportion of survivors versus beetle-killed trees. Our results indicate that during outbreaks, beetle choice may result in strong selection for trees with greater resistance to attack. Our findings suggest that survivorship is genetically based and, thus, heritable. Therefore, retaining survivors after outbreaks to act as primary seed sources could act to promote adaptation. Further research will be needed to characterize the actual mechanism(s) of resistance.}, } @article {pmid30082407, year = {2018}, author = {Ficklin, DL and Abatzoglou, JT and Robeson, SM and Null, SE and Knouft, JH}, title = {Natural and managed watersheds show similar responses to recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {34}, pages = {8553-8557}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1801026115}, pmid = {30082407}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydroclimatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981-2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median daily streamflow, daily streamflow variability, and daily extremes in human-modified watersheds are similar to those from nearby natural watersheds. Streamflow in both systems show negative trends throughout the southern and western United States and positive trends throughout the northeastern United States, the northern Great Plains, and southern prairies of Canada. The trends in both natural and human-modified watersheds are linked to local trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, demonstrating that water management and land-cover change have not substantially altered the effects of climate change on human-modified watersheds compared with nearby natural watersheds.}, } @article {pmid30082401, year = {2018}, author = {Iknayan, KJ and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Collapse of a desert bird community over the past century driven by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {34}, pages = {8597-8602}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1805123115}, pmid = {30082401}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate change has caused deserts, already defined by climatic extremes, to warm and dry more rapidly than other ecoregions in the contiguous United States over the last 50 years. Desert birds persist near the edge of their physiological limits, and climate change could cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia, leading to decline or extirpation of some species. We evaluated how desert birds have responded to climate and habitat change by resurveying historic sites throughout the Mojave Desert that were originally surveyed for avian diversity during the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. We found strong evidence of an avian community in collapse. Sites lost on average 43% of their species, and occupancy probability declined significantly for 39 of 135 breeding birds. The common raven was the only native species to substantially increase across survey sites. Climate change, particularly decline in precipitation, was the most important driver of site-level persistence, while habitat change had a secondary influence. Habitat preference and diet were the two most important species traits associated with occupancy change. The presence of surface water reduced the loss of site-level richness, creating refugia. The collapse of the avian community over the past century may indicate a larger imbalance in the Mojave and provide an early warning of future ecosystem disintegration, given climate models unanimously predict an increasingly dry and hot future.}, } @article {pmid30080880, year = {2018}, author = {Syphard, AD and Sheehan, T and Rustigian-Romsos, H and Ferschweiler, K}, title = {Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0201680}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0201680}, pmid = {30080880}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as predictor variables. We therefore assessed the sensitivity of future fire projections to different combinations of vegetation maps used as explanatory variables in a statistically based fire modeling framework. We compared models without vegetation to models that incorporated static vegetation maps and that included output from a dynamic vegetation model that imposed three scenarios of fire and one scenario of land use change. We mapped projected future probability of all and large fires (> = 40 ha) under two climate scenarios in a heterogeneous study area spanning a large elevational gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Results showed high model sensitivity to the treatment of vegetation as a predictor variable, particularly for models of large fire probability and for models accounting for wildfire effects on vegetation, which lowered future fire probability. Some scenarios resulted in opposite directional trends in the extent and probability of future fire, which could have serious implications for policy and management resource allocation. Model sensitivity resulted from high relative importance of vegetation variables in the baseline models and from large predicted changes in vegetation, particularly when simulating wildfire. Although statistical fire models often omit vegetation due to uncertainty, model sensitivity demonstrated here suggests a need to account for that uncertainty. Coupling statistical and processed based models may be a promising approach to reflect a more plausible range of scenarios.}, } @article {pmid30080626, year = {2018}, author = {Torres, N and Goicoechea, N and Zamarreño, AM and Carmen Antolín, M}, title = {Mycorrhizal symbiosis affects ABA metabolism during berry ripening in Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo grown under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {274}, number = {}, pages = {383-393}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2018.06.009}, pmid = {30080626}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {Abscisic Acid/*metabolism ; Anthocyanins/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Mycorrhizae/*physiology ; Phenols/*metabolism ; Plant Growth Regulators/*metabolism ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; Vitis/*microbiology/physiology ; Water/physiology ; }, abstract = {Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is a promising tool for improving the quality of grapes under changing environments. Therefore, the aim of this research was to determine if the ability of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to enhance phenolic content (specifically, anthocyanins) in a climate change framework could be mediated by alterations in berry ABA metabolism during ripening. The study was carried out on fruit-bearing cuttings of cv. Tempranillo (CL-1048 and CL-1089) inoculated (+M) or not (-M) with AMF. Two experimental designs were implemented. In the first experiment +M and -M plants were subjected to two temperatures (24/14 °C or 28/18 °C (day/night)) from fruit set to berry maturity. In the second experiment, +M and -M plants were subjected to two temperatures (24/14 °C or 28/18 °C (day/night)) combined with two irrigation regimes (late water deficit (LD) and full irrigation (FI)). At 28/18 °C AMF contributed to an increase in berry anthocyanins and modulated ABA metabolism, leading to higher ABA-GE and 7'OH-ABA and lower phaseic acid (PA) in berries compared to -M plants. Under the most stressful scenario (LD and 28/18 °C), at harvest +M plants exhibited higher berry anthocyanins and 7´OH-ABA and lower PA and dihydrophaseic acid (DPA) levels than -M plants. These findings highlight the involvement of ABA metabolism into the ability of AMF to improve some traits involved in the quality of grapes under global warming scenarios.}, } @article {pmid30078955, year = {2018}, author = {Waldman, KB and Richardson, RB}, title = {Confronting Tradeoffs Between Agricultural Ecosystem Services and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mali.}, journal = {Ecological economics : the journal of the International Society for Ecological Economics}, volume = {150}, number = {}, pages = {184-193}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.04.003}, pmid = {30078955}, issn = {0921-8009}, abstract = {Changing climatic conditions present new challenges for agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. Sorghum has proven to be an adaptable and resilient crop despite limited funding for crop development. Recent breeding efforts target hybrid and perennial technologies that may facilitate adaptation to climate change. Advantages of perennial crops over their annual counterparts include improved soil quality and water conservation and reduced inputs and labor requirements. In contrast, hybrid crops are often bred for improved grain yield and earlier maturation to avoid variable conditions. We use discrete choice experiments to model adoption of sorghum as a function of attributes that differ between these technologies and traditional varieties in Mali. Overall, the main perceived advantage of perennial crops is agricultural ecosystem services such as soil improvement, while adoption of hybrid crops is hampered by the inability to reuse seed. Women farmers are less concerned about higher labor requirements associated with perennial crops and the ability to reuse hybrids seeds than male farmers. Farmers prefer traditional sorghum to perennial sorghum and are indifferent between traditional and hybrid sorghum. These findings have important policy implications for understanding tradeoffs that are central to farmer decision making when it comes to breeding technologies for climate adaptation.}, } @article {pmid30078910, year = {2018}, author = {León-Sánchez, L and Nicolás, E and Goberna, M and Prieto, I and Maestre, FT and Querejeta, JI}, title = {Poor plant performance under simulated climate change is linked to mycorrhizal responses in a semiarid shrubland.}, journal = {The Journal of ecology}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {960-976}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2745.12888}, pmid = {30078910}, issn = {0022-0477}, support = {242658//European Research Council/International ; 647038//European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Warmer and drier conditions associated with ongoing climate change will increase abiotic stress for plants and mycorrhizal fungi in drylands worldwide, thereby potentially reducing vegetation cover and productivity and increasing the risk of land degradation and desertification. Rhizosphere microbial interactions and feedbacks are critical processes that could either mitigate or aggravate the vulnerability of dryland vegetation to forecasted climate change.We conducted a four-year manipulative study in a semiarid shrubland in the Iberian Peninsula to assess the effects of warming (~2.5ºC; W), rainfall reduction (~30%; RR) and their combination (W+RR) on the performance of native shrubs (Helianthemum squamatum) and their associated mycorrhizal fungi.Warming (W and W+RR) decreased the net photosynthetic rates of H. squamatum shrubs by ~31% despite concurrent increases in stomatal conductance (~33%), leading to sharp decreases (~50%) in water use efficiency. Warming also advanced growth phenology, decreased leaf nitrogen and phosphorus contents per unit area, reduced shoot biomass production by ~36% and decreased survival during a dry year in both W and W+RR plants. Plants under RR showed more moderate decreases (~10-20%) in photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and shoot growth.Warming, RR and W+RR altered ectomycorrhizal fungal (EMF) community structure and drastically reduced the relative abundance of EMF sequences obtained by high-throughput sequencing, a response associated with decreases in the leaf nitrogen, phosphorus and dry matter contents of their host plants. In contrast to EMF, the community structure and relative sequence abundances of other non-mycorrhizal fungal guilds were not significantly affected by the climate manipulation treatments.Synthesis: Our findings highlight the vulnerability of both native plants and their symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi to climate warming and drying in semiarid shrublands, and point to the importance of a deeper understanding of plant-soil feedbacks to predict dryland vegetation responses to forecasted aridification. The interdependent responses of plants and ectomycorrhizal fungi to warming and rainfall reduction may lead to a detrimental feedback loop on vegetation productivity and nutrient pool size, which could amplify the adverse impacts of forecasted climate change on ecosystem functioning in EMF-dominated drylands.}, } @article {pmid30078685, year = {2018}, author = {Liang, JL and Zhou, WH and Gao, SM and Yu, WP and Shu, WS and Li, JT}, title = {A simple slash-and-char system to mitigate climate change and environmental pollution.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {242}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {1904-1911}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2018.07.074}, pmid = {30078685}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Agriculture-based climate change mitigation may occur through enhancing the carbon sink or through reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from agricultural residue treatment, as open burning of agricultural residues produces millions of tons of GHGs and air pollutants annually worldwide. Charring slashed biomass, termed as slash-and-char, has been considered as a promising alternative to open burning in dealing with agricultural residues such as rice straw. Previous studies, however, focused on relatively sophisticated slash-and-char systems, which could not be practiced easily by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Here we introduce a simple slash-and-char system to mitigate the environmental problems associated with open burning of rice straw. This system could convert 30.7% of the initial carbon in rice straw into biochar, much higher than that retained in the ash generated by open burning (3.95%). It could also cut GHGs, particulate matters and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions by 26.9%, 99.0% and 99.4%, respectively. If open burning of rice straw was replaced by the slash-and-char, the annual emissions of GHGs, particulate matters and PAHs in China would decrease by at least 15.4 Tg, 1.51 Tg and 1.27 Gg, correspondingly. This decrease is nearly twice the size of China's estimated forest C sink (8.81 Tg).}, } @article {pmid30077910, year = {2018}, author = {Salerno, F and Gaetano, V and Gianni, T}, title = {Urbanization and climate change impacts on surface water quality: Enhancing the resilience by reducing impervious surfaces.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {144}, number = {}, pages = {491-502}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2018.07.058}, pmid = {30077910}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization are key factors affecting the future of water quality in urbanized catchments. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impact of climate change and urbanization on the water quality of receiving water bodies in the context of a highly urbanized watershed served by a combined sewer system (CSS) in northern Italy. The impact is determined by an integrated modelling study involving two years of field campaigns. The results obtained from the case study show that impervious urban surfaces and rainfall intensity are significant predictors of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and consequently of the water quality of the receiving water body. Scenarios for the year 2100 demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanization is likely to lead to severe worsening of river water quality due to a doubling of the total phosphorus load from CSOs compared to the current load. Reduction in imperviousness was found to be a suitable strategy to adapt to these scenarios by limiting the construction of new impervious areas and decreasing the existing areas by only 15%. This information can be further utilized to develop future designs, which in turn should make these systems more resilient to future changes in climate and urbanization.}, } @article {pmid30077852, year = {2019}, author = {Cai, D and Fraedrich, K and Guan, Y and Guo, S and Zhang, C and Zhu, X}, title = {Urbanization and climate change: Insights from eco-hydrological diagnostics.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {29-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.319}, pmid = {30077852}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To quantify how urbanization induced long-term changes have altered the evolution of urban climate, a novel eco-hydrological diagnostic is introduced and applied globally, to a developing and a developed country (China and US-America). Urban areas are (i) geographically identified by remote sensing based nighttime light, (ii) physically embedded in state spaces spanned by suitable combinations of surface energy and water fluxes comprising the rainfall-runoff chain, and (iii) dynamically characterized by the time evolution of the surface fluxes at geographically fixed locations, analyzed as trajectories in state space, and interpreted by an attribution model separating anthropogenic from climate induced causes. The results describe the long term climatological settings of urban areas in a net radiation versus dryness diagram, while the attribution of change is diagnosed in a state space spanned by energy and water excess: (i) Cities in China are characterized by a bi-modal distribution separated by the boundary between water and energy-limited (northern and southern) regimes while US-American cities are assembling unimodally on this boundary, and globally the urbanized areas are also aligned along this boundary between water and energy-limited regimes. (ii) Attribution of eco-hydrological changes of urbanized regions to climate and human-induced causes shows also basic differences between the developing and developed country: urbanization in Chinese cities is characterized by a 'wet-gets-drier' and 'dry-gets-wetter' paradigm of the climate-induced contributions, due to which cities tend towards a unimodal state as it is observed for US-American urban areas. Finally, implications for large scale city planning are discussed in the outlook.}, } @article {pmid30077344, year = {2018}, author = {Dell'Apa, A and Carney, K and Davenport, TM and Carle, MV}, title = {Potential medium-term impacts of climate change on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico: A qualitative framework for management and conservation.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.07.017}, pmid = {30077344}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {A systematic review of scientific papers on the potential impacts of climate-driven environmental changes on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) was conducted to identify the climate-driven pressures and their associated potential impacts on the reproductive success and survival of tuna and billfish, and which of those impacts may have more relevance for their management and conservation in the GOM by 2050. An Impact Screening Analysis (ISA) was developed to evaluate the potential climate impacts discovered in the literature synthesis by assessing each impact against four criteria, and assigning it a ranking based on likelihood of occurrence (High, Medium, or Low). Results show three types of climate-driven pressures within the High ranking: increased water temperature; changes in ocean circulation and eddy kinetic energy; and changes in storm and wind patterns. Our findings provide valuable information to advance our understanding of key climate-driven physico-chemical processes that can impact the biology of tuna and billfish in the GOM, and enhance conservation and management of these species.}, } @article {pmid30075869, year = {2018}, author = {Lauria, V and Das, I and Hazra, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Kay, S and Ofori-Danson, P and Ahmed, M and Hossain, MAR and Barange, M and Fernandes, JA}, title = {Corrigendum to importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas Science of the total Environment 640-641 (2018) 1566-1577.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1650}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.209}, pmid = {30075869}, issn = {1879-1026}, } @article {pmid30075785, year = {2018}, author = {Gilfillan, D}, title = {Regional organisations supporting health sector responses to climate change in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {80}, doi = {10.1186/s12992-018-0388-z}, pmid = {30075785}, issn = {1744-8603}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The role played by regional organisations in climate change adaptation and health is growing in Southeast Asia, with the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment both supporting health and adaptation initiatives. There is, however, a lack of empirical research on the value that regional organisations add to national health-related adaptation. This qualitative research compares regional project and governance-based models of adaptation and health support in Southeast Asia, providing an analysis of strengths and weaknesses of each, as well as possibilities for improvement.

METHODS: An existing adaptation assessment framework was modified for this research, and used as a guide to gather and analyse data from academic and grey literature, policy documents and interviews in order to qualitatively assess two organisations and their different models of adaptation and health support.

RESULTS: This research found differing strengths in the approaches to climate change and health used by the Asian Development Bank and by the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment. The regional forum has vision, high levels of perceived legitimacy, and access to 'in-house' expertise in public health and climate change. Conversely, the Asian Development Bank has strengths in project management and access to significant financial resources to support work in climate change and health.

CONCLUSION: When regional organisations, such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, have membership and mandate overlaps, their work will likely benefit from well designed, institutionalised and incentivised coordination mechanisms. Coordination can reduce redundancies as well as the administrative workload on partner government agencies. In the case-study examined, the Asian Development Bank's project management expertise complements the vision and high levels of perceived legitimacy of the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, thus a coordinated approach could deliver improved adaptation and health outcomes.}, } @article {pmid30073071, year = {2018}, author = {Cottingham, A and Huang, P and Hipsey, MR and Hall, NG and Ashworth, E and Williams, J and Potter, IC}, title = {Growth, condition, and maturity schedules of an estuarine fish species change in estuaries following increased hypoxia due to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {14}, pages = {7111-7130}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4236}, pmid = {30073071}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understanding challenges posed by climate change to estuaries and their faunas remains a high priority for managing these systems and their communities. Freshwater discharge into a range of estuary types in south-western Australia between 1990 and 2015 is shown to be related to rainfall. This largely accounts for decreases in discharge in this microtidal region being more pronounced on the west coast than south coast, where rainfall decline was less. Results of an oxygen-balance model imply that, as demonstrated by empirical data for the Swan River Estuary, declines in discharge into a range of estuary types would be accompanied by increases in the extent of hypoxia. In 2013-15, growth and body condition of the teleost Acanthopagrus butcheri varied markedly among three permanently open, one intermittently-open, one seasonally-closed and one normally-closed estuary, with average time taken by females to reach the minimum legal length (MLL) of 250 mm ranging from 3.6 to 17.7 years. It is proposed that, in a given restricted period, these inter-estuary variations in biological characteristics are related more to differences in factors, such as food resources and density, than to temperature and salinity. The biological characteristics of A. butcheri in the four estuaries, for which there are historical data, changed markedly between 1993-96 and 2013-15. Growth of both sexes, and also body condition in all but the normally-closed estuary, declined, with females taking between 1.7 and 2.9 times longer to attain the MLL. Irrespective of period, body condition, and growth are positively related. Age at maturity typically increased between periods, but length at maturity declined only in the estuary in which growth was greatest. The plasticity of the biological characteristics of A. butcheri, allied with confinement to its natal estuary and ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, makes this sparid and comparable species excellent subjects for assessing estuarine "health."}, } @article {pmid30073050, year = {2018}, author = {Berriozabal-Islas, C and Rodrigues, JFM and Ramírez-Bautista, A and Becerra-López, JL and Nieto-Montes de Oca, A}, title = {Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {14}, pages = {6860-6871}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4200}, pmid = {30073050}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Accelerated climate change represents a major threat to the health of the planet's biodiversity. Particularly, lizards of the genus Xenosaurus might be negatively affected by this phenomenon because several of its species have restricted distributions, low vagility, and preference for low temperatures. No study, however, has examined the climatic niche of the species of this genus and how their distribution might be influenced by different climate change scenarios. In this project, we used a maximum entropy approach to model the climatic niche of 10 species of the genus Xenosaurus under present and future suitable habitat, considering a climatic niche conservatism context. Therefore, we performed a similarity analysis of the climatic niche between each species of the genus Xenosaurus. Our results suggest that a substantial decrease in suitable habitat for all species will occur by 2070. Among the most affected species, X. tzacualtipantecus will not have suitable conditions according to its climatic niche requirements and X. phalaroanthereon will lose 85.75% of its current suitable area. On the other hand, we found low values of conservatism of the climatic niche among species. Given the limited capacity of dispersion and the habitat specificity of these lizards, it seems unlikely that fast changes would occur in the distribution of these species facing climate change. The low conservatism in climatic niche we found in Xenosaurus suggests that these species might have the capacity to adapt to the new environmental conditions originated by climate change.}, } @article {pmid30072614, year = {2018}, author = {Wells, CN and Tonkyn, D}, title = {Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects9030094}, pmid = {30072614}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern United States. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two phylogenetically distinct high elevation populations. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, the community climate system model (CCSM) and the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC), under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics area under curve (AUC) test and the true skill statistics (TSS) (mean AUC = 0.91 ± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for representative concentration pathway (RCP) = 4.5; and mean AUC = 0.87 ± 0.0031 SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.}, } @article {pmid30065269, year = {2018}, author = {Kang, S and Eltahir, EAB}, title = {North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2894}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05252-y}, pmid = {30065269}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.}, } @article {pmid30064741, year = {2018}, author = {Asproudi, A and Ferrandino, A and Bonello, F and Vaudano, E and Pollon, M and Petrozziello, M}, title = {Key norisoprenoid compounds in wines from early-harvested grapes in view of climate change.}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {268}, number = {}, pages = {143-152}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2018.06.069}, pmid = {30064741}, issn = {1873-7072}, abstract = {In view of climate change, the scheduling of an early harvest may be an agronomic option to limit wine alcohol, provided that a satisfactory content of secondary metabolites can be ensured in grapes. To better understand the link between grape ripening, seasonal trend and wine aroma, the aromatic expression of Barbera and Pinot Noir wines produced with early harvested grapes was assessed. Attention was focused on C13 norisoprenoids during both alcoholic fermentation and after three months of storage. At the end of fermentation, the highest β-damascenone content was detected in wines obtained from less ripe grapes, the content subsequently increased significantly after three months of storage; however, the levels of β-ionone decreased significantly during the same period. The reduction of wine alcohol as a result of harvesting earlier, especially for Barbera, was associated with optimal aromatic levels as well as good technological parameters.}, } @article {pmid30063714, year = {2018}, author = {Guo, Y and Gasparrini, A and Li, S and Sera, F and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Saldiva, PHN and Lavigne, E and Tawatsupa, B and Punnasiri, K and Overcenco, A and Correa, PM and Ortega, NV and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Goodman, PG and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and Scortichini, M and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Seposo, X and Kim, H and Tobias, A and Íñiguez, C and Forsberg, B and Åström, DO and Guo, YL and Chen, BY and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Dang, TN and Van, DD and Bell, ML and Armstrong, B and Ebi, KL and Tong, S}, title = {Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002629}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629}, pmid = {30063714}, issn = {1549-1676}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.}, } @article {pmid30063708, year = {2018}, author = {Nissan, H and Conway, D}, title = {From advocacy to action: Projecting the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002624}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002624}, pmid = {30063708}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In a Perspective, Hannah Nissan and Declan Conway discuss the implications of uncertainty about projected impacts of climate change on health.}, } @article {pmid30063707, year = {2018}, author = {Patz, JA and Thomson, MC}, title = {Climate change and health: Moving from theory to practice.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002628}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002628}, pmid = {30063707}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In an Editorial discussing the Special Issue on Climate Change and Health, guest editors Jonathan Patz and Madeleine Thompson summarize key issues in the field and describe the significance of research studies included in the issue.}, } @article {pmid30062166, year = {2017}, author = {Mann, DL}, title = {Are Academic Medical Centers Placing Translational Scientists on the Endangered Species List?: A Call for Climate Change to Preserve the Species.}, journal = {JACC. Basic to translational science}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {500-502}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacbts.2017.07.002}, pmid = {30062166}, issn = {2452-302X}, } @article {pmid30061649, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Pinning extreme weather on climate change is now routine and reliable science.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7716}, pages = {5}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05839-x}, pmid = {30061649}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters ; *Weather ; }, } @article {pmid30061648, year = {2018}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Droughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blame.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7716}, pages = {20-22}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05849-9}, pmid = {30061648}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid30060608, year = {2018}, author = {Wei, J and Chen, H and Long, R}, title = {Determining Multi-Layer Factors That Drive the Carbon Capability of Urban Residents in Response to Climate Change: An Exploratory Qualitative Study in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15081607}, pmid = {30060608}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The active promotion of carbon abatement to mitigate global climate change and protect the environment and public health has become the international consensus. The carbon capability is a key index for measuring the potential reduction of the carbon emissions by urban residents, and thus encouraging residents to exhibit normal and autonomous low-carbon behavior has become an important issue. In this study, based on grounded theory, data from in-depth interviews were encoded at three levels to identify the multi-layer factors that drive the carbon capability of urban residents, and we constructed a theoretical model for policy intervention. The results showed that individual factors, organizational factors, social factors, and social demographic variables were the main variables that affected the carbon capability, and utility experience perception was the main intermediary variable that affected the carbon capability. There was an obvious gap between utility experience perception and carbon capability. Low carbon selection cost was an internal situational variable that regulated the relationship between these factors, and the policy situation and technical situation were external situational variables. There were two-way effects on the carbon capability and utility experience perception. Thus, we explored these driving factors and the role of the carbon capability model. The results of this study may facilitate targeted policy thinking and the development of an implementation path for government in order to formulate effective guiding policies to enhance the carbon capability of urban residents.}, } @article {pmid30058746, year = {2018}, author = {Valle, D and Albuquerque, P and Zhao, Q and Barberan, A and Fletcher, RJ}, title = {Extending the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to presence/absence data: A case study on North American breeding birds and biogeographical shifts expected from climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5560-5572}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14412}, pmid = {30058746}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {1005163//US Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; 1458034//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding how species composition varies across space and time is fundamental to ecology. While multiple methods having been created to characterize this variation through the identification of groups of species that tend to co-occur, most of these methods unfortunately are not able to represent gradual variation in species composition. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model is a mixed-membership method that can represent gradual changes in community structure by delineating overlapping groups of species, but its use has been limited because it requires abundance data and requires users to a priori set the number of groups. We substantially extend LDA to accommodate widely available presence/absence data and to simultaneously determine the optimal number of groups. Using simulated data, we show that this model is able to accurately determine the true number of groups, estimate the underlying parameters, and fit with the data. We illustrate this method with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Overall, our model identified 18 main bird groups, revealing striking spatial patterns for each group, many of which were closely associated with temperature and precipitation gradients. Furthermore, by comparing the estimated proportion of each group for two time periods (1997-2002 and 2010-2015), our results indicate that nine (of 18) breeding bird groups exhibited an expansion northward and contraction southward of their ranges, revealing subtle but important community-level biodiversity changes at a continental scale that are consistent with those expected under climate change. Our proposed method is likely to find multiple uses in ecology, being a valuable addition to the toolkit of ecologists.}, } @article {pmid30055491, year = {2019}, author = {Li, J and Dong, W and Oenema, O and Chen, T and Hu, C and Yuan, H and Zhao, L}, title = {Irrigation reduces the negative effect of global warming on winter wheat yield and greenhouse gas intensity.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {646}, number = {}, pages = {290-299}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.296}, pmid = {30055491}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming may exacerbate drought, decrease crop yield and affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in semi-arid regions. However, the interactive effects of increases in temperature and water availability on winter wheat yield and GHG emissions in semi-arid climates are not well-understood. Here, we report on a two-year field experiment that examined the effects of a mean soil temperature increase of ~2 °C (at 5 cm depth) with and without additional irrigation on wheat yield and GHG emissions. Infrared heaters were placed above the crop canopy at a height of 1.8 m to simulate warming. Fluxes of CH4, CO2 and N2O were measured using closed static chamber technique once per week during the wheat growing seasons. Warming decreased wheat yield by 28% in the relatively dry year of 2015, while supplemental irrigation nullified the warming effect completely. Warming did not alter the wheat yield significantly in the relatively wet year of 2016, but supplemental irrigation with no warming decreased the wheat yield by 25%. Warming increased CO2 emissions by 28% and CH4 uptake by 24% and tended to decrease N2O emissions. Supplemental irrigation increased N2O emissions but had little effect on CO2 emissions and CH4 uptake. Evidently, warming and supplemental irrigation had interactive effects on wheat yield, GHG emissions and GHG emissions intensity. Precision irrigation appears to be a means of simultaneously increasing wheat yield and reducing GHG emissions under warming conditions in semi-arid areas.}, } @article {pmid30055058, year = {2018}, author = {Albrich, K and Rammer, W and Thom, D and Seidl, R}, title = {Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {1884-1896}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1785}, pmid = {30055058}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {P 25503-B16//Austrian Science Fund/ ; Y895 B25//Austrian Science Fund/ ; 101198//Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management/ ; }, abstract = {The ability of forests to continuously provide ecosystem services (ES) is threatened by rapid changes in climate and disturbance regimes. Consequently, these changes present a considerable challenge for forest managers. Management of forests often focuses on maximizing the level of ES provisioning over extended time frames (i.e., rotation periods of more than 100 yr). However, temporal stability is also crucial for many ES, for example, in the context of a steady provisioning of resources to the industry, or the protection of human infrastructure against natural hazards. How temporal stability and the level of ES provisioning are related is of increasing interest, particularly since changing climate and disturbance regimes amplify temporal variability in forest ecosystems. In this simulation study, we investigated whether forest management can simultaneously achieve high levels and temporal stability of ES provisioning. Specifically, we quantified (1) trade-offs between ES stability and level of ES provisioning, and (2) the effect of tree species diversity on ES stability. Simulating a wide range of future climate scenarios and management strategies, we found a negative relationship between temporal stability and level of ES provisioning for timber production, carbon cycling, and site protection in a landscape in the Austrian Alps. Tree species diversity had a predominantly positive effect on ES stability. We conclude that attempts to maximize the level of ES provisioning may increase its temporal variability, and thus threaten the continuity of ES supply. Consequently, considerations of stability need to be more explicitly included in forest management planning under increasingly variable future conditions.}, } @article {pmid30054917, year = {2018}, author = {Knapp, AK and Carroll, CJW and Griffin-Nolan, RJ and Slette, IJ and Chaves, FA and Baur, LE and Felton, AJ and Gray, JE and Hoffman, AM and Lemoine, NP and Mao, W and Post, AK and Smith, MD}, title = {A reality check for climate change experiments: Do they reflect the real world?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {10}, pages = {2145-2151}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2474}, pmid = {30054917}, issn = {0012-9658}, support = {//US National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Experiments are widely used in ecology, particularly for assessing global change impacts on ecosystem function. However, results from experiments often are inconsistent with observations made under natural conditions, suggesting the need for rigorous comparisons of experimental and observational studies. We conducted such a "reality check" for a grassland ecosystem by compiling results from nine independently conducted climate change experiments. Each experiment manipulated growing season precipitation (GSP) and measured responses in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). We compared results from experiments with long-term (33-yr) annual precipitation and ANPP records to ask if collectively (n = 44 experiment-years) experiments yielded estimates of ANPP, rain-use efficiency (RUE, grams per square meter ANPP per mm precipitation), and the relationship between GSP and ANPP comparable to observations. We found that mean ANPP and RUE from experiments did not deviate from observations. Experiments and observational data also yielded similar functional relationships between ANPP and GSP, but only within the range of historically observed GSP. Fewer experiments imposed extreme levels of GSP (outside the observed 33-yr record), but when these were included, they altered the GSP-ANPP relationship. This result underscores the need for more experiments imposing extreme precipitation levels to resolve how forecast changes in climate regimes will affect ecosystem function in the future.}, } @article {pmid30054543, year = {2018}, author = {Zachary, DS}, title = {The Inverse Poisson Functional for forecasting response time to environmental events and global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {11342}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-29680-4}, pmid = {30054543}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A series of Poisson distributions are fit to sets of global cost-of-impact data representing large-scale accidents and anthropogenic catastrophes. The fits are used to build a function representing data means and are designated the Inverse Poisson Functional. Climate and environmental data have been used to develop a cost-frequency population distribution and to estimate the expected time between events. On a global scale, we show that expected wait- or reaction- times can be estimated using the Poisson density function. The functional is generated, representing the locus of means (peaks) from the individual Poisson distributions from different impact costs. Past (ex-post) forecasts relate to a range of natural and anthropogenic disasters; future (ex-ante) forecast presents global CO2 emissions. This paper shows that a substantial reaction to global climate change (CO2 emissions extremum) will occur in 55 to 120 years (95% CI) with a model prediction of 80 years.}, } @article {pmid30046067, year = {2018}, author = {Mitchard, ETA}, title = {The tropical forest carbon cycle and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7715}, pages = {527-534}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0300-2}, pmid = {30046067}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Tropical forests make an approximately neutral contribution to the global carbon cycle, with intact and recovering forests taking in as much carbon as is released through deforestation and degradation. In the near future, tropical forests are likely to become a carbon source, owing to continued forest loss and the effect of climate change on the ability of the remaining forests to capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide. This will make it harder to limit global warming to below 2 °C. Encouragingly, recent international agreements commit to halting deforestation and degradation, but a lack of fundamental data for use in monitoring and model design makes policy action difficult.}, } @article {pmid30045581, year = {2018}, author = {Pesce, M and Critto, A and Torresan, S and Giubilato, E and Santini, M and Zirino, A and Ouyang, W and Marcomini, A}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {628-629}, number = {}, pages = {919-937}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.131}, pmid = {30045581}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There is high confidence that the anthropogenic increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing modifications in the Earth's climate. Coastal waterbodies such as estuaries, bays and lagoons are among those most affected by the ongoing changes in climate. Being located at the land-sea interface, such waterbodies are subjected to the combined changes in the physical-chemical processes of atmosphere, upstream land and coastal waters. Particularly, climate change is expected to alter phytoplankton communities by changing their environmental drivers (especially climate-related), thus exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication events, such as hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HAB) and loss of habitat. A better understanding of the links between climate-related drivers and phytoplankton is therefore necessary for projecting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we present the case study of the Zero river basin in Italy, one of the main contributors of freshwater and nutrient to the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, a coastal waterbody belonging to the lagoon of Venice. To project the impacts of climate change on freshwater inputs, nutrient loadings and their effects on the phytoplankton community of the receiving waterbody, we formulated and applied an integrated modelling approach made of: climate simulations derived by coupling a General Circulation Model (GCM) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under alternative emission scenarios, the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the ecological model AQUATOX. Climate projections point out an increase of precipitations in the winter period and a decrease in the summer months, while temperature shows a significant increase over the whole year. Water discharge and nutrient loads simulated by SWAT show a tendency to increase (decrease) in the winter (summer) period. AQUATOX projects changes in the concentration of nutrients in the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, and variations in the biomass and species of the phytoplankton community.}, } @article {pmid30045562, year = {2018}, author = {Aslam, AQ and Ahmad, I and Ahmad, SR and Hussain, Y and Hussain, MS and Shamshad, J and Zaidi, SJA}, title = {Integrated climate change risk assessment and evaluation of adaptation perspective in southern Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {628-629}, number = {}, pages = {1422-1436}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.129}, pmid = {30045562}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is posing stresses on water resources, food security, population, environment and economy of the southern Punjab. Integrated climate change risk assessment is carried out using assessed likelihood approach for defined mean, hot & dry, central, warm & wet climate models over selected time slices and adaptation plans. Climate models are based on the 5th, 50th & 95th percentiles of PRECIS RCM projections of temperature & precipitation under IPCC A2 & A1B scenarios. Four time slices 2015, 2035, 2065 and 2085 are selected to assess the temporal climate change risk and to evaluate the performance of selected adaptations to reduce climate threats over considered assets. Results are presented in terms of risk indices and risk reduction units (RRUs). In first half of the 21st century, climate change risk will continue to increase from current level and is high (>10) in most of the selected time slices. Maximum ensembles of climate models, time slices and adaptation plans observe moderate (37-40 RRUs) and high (40-55 RRUs) risk class. Cumulative risk has been calculated through integration of sectoral sensitivity e.g. population density, land use, food security and multidimensional poverty to climate change risk class using AHP and overlaying in GIS environment. About 90% and 83% area of southern Punjab is falling in high cumulative risk. About 13% area, comprising Muzaffargarh and Rajanpur district is under very high cumulative risk. Water induced adaptations like development of water resources, dam & flood control protection, temporary flood barriers and water resource acquisition are the preferred and suitable adaptations as these observed >100 RRUs for most of the ensembles. Assessing baseline vulnerability and sectoral sensitivity to climate stimuli are the hot spots requiring priority attention and firm decision making by disaster management authorities and communities residing in southern Punjab.}, } @article {pmid30040814, year = {2018}, author = {Fagliano, JA and Diez Roux, AV}, title = {Climate change, urban health, and the promotion of health equity.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002621}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002621}, pmid = {30040814}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {Jerald Fagliano and Ana Diez Roux discuss the challenges of climate change in an urban environment, but also opportunities for healthier lifestyles and green spaces.}, } @article {pmid30039684, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, MP and Ren, CJ and Zhang, W and Chen, ZX and Fu, SY and Liu, WC and Yang, GH and Han, XH}, title = {[Responses mechanism of C:N:P stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {2445-2454}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201807.041}, pmid = {30039684}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Enzymes/metabolism ; Nitrogen ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Microorganisms and soil enzymes are important drivers for biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the role of microorganisms in the regulation of ecosystems and the response mechanisms of microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change are important topic in ecology. From the perspective of climatic factors, this review introduced the roles of microorganisms and soil enzymes in the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles of terrestrial ecosystems based on the theory of ecological stoichiometry. Moreover, we synthesized the responses mechanisms of soil microbial and soil enzyme stoichiometry, i.e., changes of microbial metabolic rate, enzymatic acti-vity, microbial community structure, ecological stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes, and nutrient use efficiency. Finally, we analyzed the current research inadequacies and proposed the scientific problems in this field, i.e., to comprehensively elucidate the response mecha-nism of soil microbes and soil enzymes to climate change; to examine the nutrient coupling mechanism of soil microbes and extracellular enzymes; and to explore the adaptive strategies of C:N:P stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change.}, } @article {pmid30039645, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, C and He, HS and Liang, Y and Wu, ZW}, title = {[Effects of climate change, fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {2088-2100}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201807.036}, pmid = {30039645}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Fires ; *Forests ; Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change will increase the frequency of fire disturbances, which may further exa-cerbate carbon loss from boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China. In this study, we coupled forest ecosystem and forest landscape models to simulate the dynamics of boreal forest carbon storage in the next 100 years. We quantified the effects of climate change, fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests. The results showed that climate change would increase carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, even if fire and harvest could partially offset such changes. Aboveground and soil organic carbon storage would increase by 9%-22% and 6%-9% in the next 100 years. In the short-term (0-20 years), the effects of climate change on carbon storage was stronger than fire. The effects of climate change on boreal forest carbon storage were less than fire and harvest in medium (30-50 years) and long-term (60-100 years). The variability of climate change and fire disturbance in the Great Xing'an Mountains caused high uncertainty of the future boreal forest carbon storage. The uncertainties of aboveground and soil organic carbon of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains were 12.4%-16.2% and 6.6%-10.4% in the next 100 years. The effects of seed dispersal, fire and harvest should be taken account for accurate estimation of carbon storage in Chinese boreal forests.}, } @article {pmid30039486, year = {2018}, author = {Bashir, MR and Atiq, M and Mohsan, M}, title = {The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) due to global climate change strengthens the plants and inhibits pathogenic infection.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {27}, pages = {26850-26851}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-2787-3}, pmid = {30039486}, issn = {1614-7499}, } @article {pmid30037049, year = {2018}, author = {Kholoud, K and Denis, S and Lahouari, B and El Hidan, MA and Souad, B}, title = {Management of Leishmaniases in the Era of Climate Change in Morocco.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15071542}, pmid = {30037049}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The proliferation of vector-borne diseases are predicted to increase in a changing climate and Leishmaniases, as a vector-borne diseases, are re-emerging diseases in several regions of the world. In Morocco, during the last decade, a sharp increase in cutaneous leishmaniases cases has been reported. Nevertheless, in Morocco, leishmaniases are a major public health problem, and little interest was given to climate change impacts on the distribution and spread of these diseases. As insect-borne diseases, the incidence and distribution of leishmaniases are influenced by environmental changes, but also by several socio-economic and cultural factors. From a biological point of view, environmental variables have effects on the survival of insect vectors and mammalian reservoirs, which, in turn, affects transmission. Here, we highlight the effects of climate change in Morocco and discuss its consequences on the epidemiology of leishmaniases to identify challenges and define targeted recommendations to fight this disease.}, } @article {pmid30033146, year = {2018}, author = {Whitehead, P and Jin, L and Macadam, I and Janes, T and Sarkar, S and Rodda, HJE and Sinha, R and Nicholls, RJ}, title = {Corrigendum to "Modelling Impacts of Climate Change and Socio-Economic Change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi River Systems in India and Bangladesh" [Stoten 636 (2018) 1362-1372].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1651-1652}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.180}, pmid = {30033146}, issn = {1879-1026}, } @article {pmid30032080, year = {2018}, author = {Suttles, KM and Singh, NK and Vose, JM and Martin, KL and Emanuel, RE and Coulston, JW and Saia, SM and Crump, MT}, title = {Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {806-816}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287}, pmid = {30032080}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study assessed the combined effects of increased urbanization and climate change on streamflow in the Yadkin-Pee Dee watershed (North Carolina, USA) and focused on the conversion from forest to urban land use, the primary land use transition occurring in the watershed. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate future (2050-2070) streamflow and baseflow for four combined climate and land use scenarios across the Yadkin-Pee Dee River watershed and three subwatersheds. The combined scenarios pair land use change and climate change scenarios together. Compared to the baseline, projected streamflow increased in three out of four combined scenarios and decreased in one combined scenario. Baseflow decreased in all combined scenarios, but decreases were largest in subwatersheds that lost the most forest. The effects of land use change and climate change were additive, amplifying the increases in runoff and decreases in baseflow. Streamflow was influenced more strongly by climate change than land use change. However, for baseflow the reverse was true; land use change tended to drive baseflow more than climate change. Land use change was also a stronger driver than climate in the most urban subwatershed. In the most extreme land use and climate projection the volume of the 1-day, 100 year flood nearly doubled at the watershed outlet. Our results underscore the importance of forests as hydrologic regulators buffering streamflow and baseflow from hydrologic extremes. Additionally, our results suggest that land managers and policy makers need to consider the implications of forest loss on streamflow and baseflow when planning for future urbanization and climate change adaptation options.}, } @article {pmid30031364, year = {2018}, author = {Madsen, HM and Andersen, MM and Rygaard, M and Mikkelsen, PS}, title = {Definitions of event magnitudes, spatial scales, and goals for climate change adaptation and their importance for innovation and implementation.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {144}, number = {}, pages = {192-203}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2018.07.026}, pmid = {30031364}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {We examine how core professional and institutional actors in the innovation system conceptualize climate change adaptation in regards to pluvial flooding-and how this influences innovation. We do this through a qualitative case study in Copenhagen with interconnected research rounds, including 32 semi-structured interviews, to strengthen the interpretation and analysis of qualitative data. We find that the term "climate change adaptation" currently has no clearly agreed definition in Copenhagen; instead, different actors use different conceptualizations of climate change adaptation according to the characteristics of their specific innovation and implementation projects. However, there is convergence among actors towards a new cognitive paradigm, whereby economic goals and multifunctionality are linked with cost-benefit analyses for adapting to extreme rain events on a surface water catchment scale. Differences in definitions can lead to both successful innovation and to conflict, and thus they affect the city's capacity for change. Our empirical work suggests that climate change adaptation can be characterized according to three attributes: event magnitudes (everyday, design, and extreme), spatial scales (small/local, medium/urban, and large/national-international), and (a wide range of) goals, thereby resulting in different technology choices.}, } @article {pmid30030873, year = {2018}, author = {Thomas, Y and Bacher, C}, title = {Assessing the sensitivity of bivalve populations to global warming using an individual-based modelling approach.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {4581-4597}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14402}, pmid = {30030873}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {SAD POPDEB n°9277//Région Bretagne/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change exposes benthic species populations in coastal ecosystems to a combination of different stressors (e.g., warming, acidification and eutrophication), threatening the sustainability of the ecological functions they provide. Thermal stress appears to be one of the strongest drivers impacting marine ecosystems, acting across a wide range of scales, from individual metabolic performances to geographic distribution of populations. Accounting for and integrating the response of species functional traits to thermal stress is therefore a necessary step in predicting how populations will respond to the warming expected in coming decades. Here, we developed an individual-based population model using a mechanistic formulation of metabolic processes within the framework of the dynamic energy budget theory. Through a large number of simulations, we assessed the sensitivity of population growth potential to thermal stress and food conditions based on a climate projection scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP8.5: no reduction of greenhouse gas emissions). We focused on three bivalve species with contrasting thermal tolerance ranges and distinct distribution ranges along 5,000 km of coastline in the NE Atlantic: the Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas), and two mussel species: Mytilus edulis and Mytilus galloprovincialis. Our results suggest substantial and contrasting changes within species depending on local temperature and food concentration. Reproductive phenology appeared to be a core process driving the responses of the populations, and these patterns were closely related to species thermal tolerances. The nonlinear relationship we found between individual life-history traits and response at the population level emphasizes the need to consider the interactions resulting from upscaling across different levels of biological organisation. These results underline the importance of a process-based understanding of benthic population response to seawater warming, which will be necessary for forward planning of resource management and strategies for conservation and adaptation to environmental changes.}, } @article {pmid30029120, year = {2018}, author = {Ghezzo, M and Pellizzato, M and De Pascalis, F and Silvestri, S and Umgiesser, G}, title = {Natural resources and climate change: A study of the potential impact on Manila clam in the Venice lagoon.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {419-430}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.060}, pmid = {30029120}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A crucial aspect in climate change is to understand how an ecosystem will adapt under different environmental conditions and how it will influence the ecological resources and the connected human activities. In this study, a numerical model reproduces the growth dynamics, dispersion and settlement of clam's larvae in the Venice lagoon. On the basis of the last IPCC scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100, the model simulates the changes in larval settlement, showing how the geographical distribution and, consequently, the nursery area changes over time. Our results indicate that climate change will modify, not only the timing of the settlements (from spring-summer to winter autumn) and the spatial distribution of nursery areas (from central to southern lagoon), but also the absolute quantity of settled larvae in the lagoon. This can strongly affect aquaculture in terms of availability of seed and farming practice. Given that these changes are due to the variations in temperature and circulation, similar processes are likely to happen in other transitional environments all over the world affecting the global aquaculture resources. In this regard, the tool we developed could support local policymakers in the knowledge-based planning and sustainable management of clam aquaculture in vulnerable environments.}, } @article {pmid30026213, year = {2018}, author = {Randel, WJ}, title = {The seasonal fingerprint of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6399}, pages = {227-228}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat9097}, pmid = {30026213}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Seasons ; }, } @article {pmid30025064, year = {2018}, author = {Robertson, AD and Zhang, Y and Sherrod, LA and Rosenzweig, ST and Ma, L and Ahuja, L and Schipanski, ME}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Yields and Soil Carbon in Row Crop Dryland Agriculture.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {684-694}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.08.0309}, pmid = {30025064}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two climate change scenarios (moderate warming, representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5; and high warming, RCP 8.5), using long-term experimental data and the DayCent process-based model for three sites with varying climates and soil conditions in the US High Plains. Each site included a no-till cropping intensity gradient introduced in 1985, with treatments ranging from wheat-fallow (L.) to continuous annual cropping and perennial grass. Simulations were extended to 2100 using data from 16 global circulation models to estimate uncertainty. Simulated yields declined for all crops (up to 50% for wheat), with small changes after 2050 under RCP 4.5 and continued losses to 2100 under RCP 8.5. Of the cropped systems, continuous cropping had the highest average productivity and soil C sequestration rates (78.1 kg C ha yr from 2015 to 2045 under RCP 4.5). Any increase in soil C for cropped rotations was realized by 2050, but grassland treatments increased soil C (up to 69%) through 2100, even under RCP 8.5. Our simulations indicate that reduced frequency of summer fallow can both increase annualized yields and store more soil C. As evapotranspiration is likely to increase, reducing fallow periods without live vegetation from dryland agricultural rotations may enhance the resilience of these systems to climate change while also increasing soil C storage and mitigating carbon dioxide emissions.}, } @article {pmid30025061, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Sainju, UM}, title = {CQESTR-Simulated Response of Soil Organic Carbon to Management, Yield, and Climate Change in the Northern Great Plains Region.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {674-683}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0273}, pmid = {30025061}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Traditional dryland crop management includes fallow and intensive tillage, which have reduced soil organic carbon (SOC) over the past century, raising concerns regarding soil health and sustainability. The objectives of this study were: (i) to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC dynamics from 2006 to 2011 and to predict relative SOC trends in cropping sequences that included barley (L.), pea (L.), and fallow under conventional tillage or no-till, and N fertilization rates through 2045; and (ii) to identify best dryland cropping systems to increase SOC and reduce CO emissions under projected climate change in eastern Montana. Cropping sequences were conventional-till barley-fallow (CTB-F), no-till barley-fallow (NTB-F), no-till continuous barley (NTCB), and no-till barley-pea (NTB-P), with 0 and 80 kg N ha applied to barley. Under current crop production, climatic conditions, and averaged N rates, SOC at the 0- to 10-cm depth was predicted to increase by 1.74, 1.79, 2.96, and 4.57 Mg C ha by 2045 for CTB-F, NTB-F, NTB-P, and NTCB, respectively. When projected climate change and the current positive US barley yield trend were accounted for in the simulations, SOC accretion was projected to increase by 0.69 to 0.92 Mg C ha and 0.41 to 0.47 Mg C ha, respectively. According to the model simulations, adoption of NT, elimination of fallow years, and N fertilizer management will likely have the greatest impact on SOC stocks in the top soil as of 2045 in the Northern Great Plains.}, } @article {pmid30025056, year = {2018}, author = {Wienhold, BJ and Jin, VL and Schmer, MR and Varvel, GE}, title = {Soil Carbon Response to Projected Climate Change in the US Western Corn Belt.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {704-709}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.09.0379}, pmid = {30025056}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Soil/chemistry ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The western US Corn Belt is projected to experience major changes in growing conditions due to climate change over the next 50 to 100 yr. Projected changes include increases in growing season length, number of high temperature stress days and warm nights, and precipitation, with more heavy rainfall events. The impact these changes will have on soil organic carbon (SOC) needs to be estimated and adaptive changes in management developed to sustain soil health and system services. The process-based model CQESTR was used to model changes in SOC stocks (0-30 cm) of continuous corn (L.) and a corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation under disk, chisel, ridge, and no-tillage using projected growing season conditions for the next 50 yr. Input for the model was based on management and harvest records from a long-term tillage study (1986-2015) in eastern Nebraska, and model output was validated using measured changes in SOC from 1999 to 2011 in the study. The validated model was used to estimate changes in SOC over 17 yr under climatic conditions projected for 2065 under two scenarios: (i) crop yields increasing at the observed rate from 1971 to 2016 or (ii) crop yields reduced due to negative effects of increasing temperature. CQESTR estimates of SOC agreed well with measured SOC (= 0.70, < 0.0001). Validated model simulated changes in SOC under projected climate change differed among the three soil depths (0-7.5, 7.5-15, and 15-30 cm). Summed over the 0- to 30-cm depth, there were significant three-way interactions of year × rotation × yield (= 0.014) and year × tillage × yield (< 0.001). As yield increased, SOC increased under no-tillage continuous corn but was unchanged under no-tillage corn-soybean and ridge tillage regardless of cropping system. Under chisel and disk tillage, SOC declined regardless of cropping system. With declining yields SOC decreased regardless of tillage or cropping system. These results highlight the interaction between genetics and management in maintaining yield trends and soil C.}, } @article {pmid30025049, year = {2018}, author = {Gollany, HT and Polumsky, RW}, title = {Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Cropping Intensity, Tillage, and Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Dryland.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {625-634}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.09.0374}, pmid = {30025049}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Northwestern United States ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Managing dryland cropping systems to increase soil organic C (SOC) under changing climate is challenging after decades of winter wheat (L.)-fallow and moldboard plow tillage (W-F/MP). The objective was to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, and SOC data collected in 2004, 2008, and 2012 to predict the best management to increase SOC under changing climate in four cropping systems, which included continuous wheat under no tillage (W-W/NT), wheat and sorghum × sudangrass [ (L.) Moench. × L.] under no tillage, wheat-fallow under sweep tillage, and W-F/MP. Since future yields and climate are uncertain, 20 scenarios for each cropping system were simulated with four climate projections and five crop yield scenarios (current crop yields, and 10 or 30% greater or lesser yields). Measured and simulated SOC were significantly (< 0.0001) correlated (= 0.98) at all soil depths. Predicted SOC changes ranged from -12.03 to 2.56 Mg C ha in the 1-m soil depth for W-F/MP and W-W/NT, respectively, during the 2012 to 2052 predictive period. Only W-W/NT sequestered SOC at a rate of 0.06 Mg C ha yr under current crop yields and climate. Under climate change and yield scenarios, W-W/NT lost SOC except with a 30% wheat yield increase for 40 yr. Predicted SOC increases in W-W/NT were 0.71, 1.16, and 0.88 Mg C ha under the Oregon Climate Assessment Reports for low emissions and high emissions and the Regional Climate Model version 3 with boundary conditions from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model, respectively, with 30% yield increases. Continuous no-till cropping would increase SOC and improve soil health and resiliency to lessen the impact of extreme weather.}, } @article {pmid30025045, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Liebig, MA and Halvorson, JJ and Archer, DW and Tanaka, DL}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Crop Rotation, Tillage, and Climate Change in North Dakota.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {654-662}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.04.0161}, pmid = {30025045}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural ; North Dakota ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Understanding how agricultural management and climate change affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is particularly important for dryland agriculture regions that have been losing SOC over time due to fallow and tillage practices, and it can lead to development of agricultural practice(s) that reduce the impact of climate change on crop production. The objectives of this study were: (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in the top 30 cm of soil during a 20-yr (1993-2012) field study using CQESTR, a process-based C model; (ii) to predict the impact of changes in management, crop production, and climate change from 2013 to 2032; and (iii) to identify the best dryland cropping systems to maintain or increase SOC stocks under projected climate change in central North Dakota. Intensifying crop rotations was predicted to have a greater impact on SOC stocks than tillage (minimum tillage [MT], no-till [NT]) during 2013 to 2032, as SOC was highly correlated to biomass input (= 0.91, = 0.00053). Converting from a MT spring wheat (SW, L.)-fallow rotation to a NT continuous SW rotation increased annualized biomass additions by 2.77 Mg ha (82%) and SOC by 0.22 Mg C ha yr. Under the assumption that crop production will stay at the 1993 to 2012 average, climate change is predicted to have a minor impact on SOC (approximately -6.5%) relative to crop rotation management. The CQESTR model predicted that the addition of another SW or rye (L.) crop would have a greater effect on SOC stocks (0- to 30-cm depth) than conversion from MT to NT or climate change from 2013 to 2032.}, } @article {pmid30025039, year = {2018}, author = {Jebari, A and Del Prado, A and Pardo, G and Rodríguez Martín, JA and Álvaro-Fuentes, J}, title = {Modeling Regional Effects of Climate Change on Soil Organic Carbon in Spain.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {644-653}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0294}, pmid = {30025039}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil/*chemistry ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Soil organic C (SOC) stock assessments at the regional scale under climate change scenarios are of paramount importance in implementing soil management practices to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimated the changes in SOC sequestration under climate change conditions in agricultural land in Spain using the RothC model at the regional level. Four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2, CGCM2-B2, ECHAM4-A2, and ECHAM4-B2) were used to simulate SOC changes during the 2010 to 2100 period across a total surface area of 2.33 × 10 km. Although RothC predicted a general increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all climate change scenarios, these SOC sequestration rates were smaller than those under baseline conditions. Moreover, this SOC response differed among climate change scenarios, and in some situations, some losses of SOC occurred. The greatest losses of C stocks were found mainly in the ECHAM4 (highest temperature rise and precipitation drop) scenarios and for rainfed and certain woody crops (lower C inputs). Under climate change conditions, management practices including no-tillage for rainfed crops and vegetation cover for woody crops were predicted to double and quadruple C sequestration rates, reaching values of 0.47 and 0.35 Mg C ha yr, respectively.}, } @article {pmid30025032, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Novak, JM and Bauer, PJ and Hunt, PG and Karlen, DL}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Response to Tillage, Yield, and Climate Change in the Southeastern Coastal Plains.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {663-673}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.05.0190}, pmid = {30025032}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Intensive tillage, low-residue crops, and a warm, humid climate have contributed to soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the southeastern Coastal Plains region. Conservation (CnT) tillage and winter cover cropping are current management practices to rebuild SOC; however, there is sparse long-term field data showing how these management practices perform under variable climate conditions. The objectives of this study were to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC in the top 15 cm of a loamy sand soil (fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Kandiudult) under conventional (CvT) or CnT tillage to elucidate the impact of projected climate change and crop yields on SOC relative to management and recommend the best agriculture management to increase SOC. Conservation tillage was predicted to increase SOC by 0.10 to 0.64 Mg C ha for six of eight crop rotations compared with CvT by 2033. The addition of a winter crop [rye (L.) or winter wheat (L.)] to a corn (L.)-cotton (L.) or corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation increased SOC by 1.47 to 2.55 Mg C ha. A continued increase in crop yields following historical trends could increase SOC by 0.28 Mg C ha, whereas climate change is unlikely to have a significant impact on SOC except in the corn-cotton or corn-soybean rotations where SOC decreased up to 0.15 Mg C ha by 2033. The adoption of CnT and cover crop management with high-residue-producing corn will likely increase SOC accretion in loamy sand soils. Simulation results indicate that soil C saturation may be reached in high-residue rotations, and increasing SOC deeper in the soil profile will be required for long-term SOC accretion beyond 2030.}, } @article {pmid30025031, year = {2018}, author = {Cavigelli, MA and Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Rasmann, C and Polumsky, RW and Le, AN and Conklin, AE}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Changes in Maryland Are Affected by Tillage, Climate Change, and Crop Yield.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {588-595}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0291}, pmid = {30025031}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Maryland ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in no-till (NT) and conventionally tilled (CT) agricultural systems is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of projected climate change on SOC to 50-cm soil depth for grain cropping systems in the southern Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We used SOC and other data from the long-term Farming Systems Project in Beltsville, MD, and CQESTR, a process-based soil C model, to predict the impact of cropping systems and climate (air temperature and precipitation) on SOC for a 40-yr period (2012-2052). Since future crop yields are uncertain, we simulated five scenarios with differing yield levels (crop yields from 1996-2014, and at 10 or 30% greater or lesser than these yields). Without change in climate or crop yields (baseline conditions) CQESTR predicted an increase in SOC of 0.014 and 0.021 Mg ha yr in CT and NT, respectively. Predicted climate change alone resulted in an SOC increase of only 0.002 Mg ha yr in NT and a decrease of 0.017 Mg ha yr in CT. Crop yield declines of 10 and 30% led to SOC decreases between 2 and 8% compared with 2012 levels. Increasing crop yield by 10 and 30% was sufficient to raise SOC 2 and 7%, respectively, above the climate-only scenario under both CT and NT between 2012 and 2052. Results indicate that under these simulated conditions, the negative impact of climate change on SOC levels could be mitigated by crop yield increases.}, } @article {pmid30024871, year = {2018}, author = {Blum, AJ and Hotez, PJ}, title = {Global "worming": Climate change and its projected general impact on human helminth infections.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0006370}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0006370}, pmid = {30024871}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Helminthiasis/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Helminths/*physiology ; Humans ; }, } @article {pmid30024475, year = {2018}, author = {Wellbery, C and Sheffield, P and Timmireddy, K and Sarfaty, M and Teherani, A and Fallar, R}, title = {It's Time for Medical Schools to Introduce Climate Change into Their Curricula.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000002368}, pmid = {30024475}, issn = {1938-808X}, support = {K23 ES024127/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; L40 ES017745/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents unprecedented health risks and demands universal attention to address them. Multiple intergovernmental organizations, health associations, and health professions schools have recognized the specific importance of preparing physicians to address the health impacts of climate change. However, medical school curricula have not kept pace with this urgent need for targeted training.The authors describe the rationale for inclusion of climate change in medical education and some potential pathways for incorporating this broad topic into physician training and continuing medical education. Reasons include the magnitude and reach of this transboundary issue, the shared responsibility of the U.S. health care sector as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and the disproportionate effects of climate change on vulnerable populations. The integration of climate-change-related topics with training of essential physician skills in a rapidly changing environment is feasible because many health topic areas already exist in medical school curricula in which climate change education can be incorporated. To fully integrate the health topics, underlying concepts, and the needed clinical and system-wide translations, content could be included across the scope of training and into continuing medical education and faculty development. The authors provide examples of such an approach to curricular inclusion.}, } @article {pmid30021321, year = {2018}, author = {Lauria, V and Das, I and Hazra, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Kay, S and Ofori-Danson, P and Ahmed, M and Hossain, MAR and Barange, M and Fernandes, JA}, title = {Importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {1566-1577}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.011}, pmid = {30021321}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Deltas are home to a large and growing proportion of the world's population, often living in conditions of extreme poverty. Deltaic ecosystems are ecologically significant as they support high biodiversity and a variety of fisheries, however these coastal environments are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh/India), the Mahanadi (India), and the Volta (Ghana) are among the most important and populous delta regions in the world and they are all considered at risk of food insecurity and climate change. The fisheries sector is vital for populations that live in the three deltas, as a source of animal protein (in Bangladesh and Ghana around 50-60% of animal protein is supplied by fish while in India this is about 12%) through subsistence fishing, as a source of employment and for the wider economy. The aquaculture sector shows a rapid growth in Bangladesh and India while in Ghana this is just starting to expand. The main exported species differ across countries with Ghana and India dominated by marine fish species, whereas Bangladesh exports shrimps and prawns. Fisheries play a more important part in the economy of Bangladesh and Ghana than for India, both men and women work in fisheries, with a higher proportion of women in the Volta then in the Asian deltas. Economic and integrated modelling using future scenarios suggest that changes in temperature and primary production could reduce fish productivity and fisheries income especially in the Volta and Bangladesh deltas, however these losses could be mitigated by reducing overfishing and improving management. The analysis provided in this paper highlights the importance of applying plans for fisheries management at regional level. Minimizing the impacts of climate change while increasing marine ecosystems resilience must be a priority for scientists and governments before these have dramatic impacts on millions of people's lives.}, } @article {pmid30021320, year = {2018}, author = {Lipczynska-Kochany, E}, title = {Effect of climate change on humic substances and associated impacts on the quality of surface water and groundwater: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {1548-1565}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.376}, pmid = {30021320}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Humic substances (HS), a highly transformed part of non-living natural organic matter (NOM), comprise up to 70% of the soil organic matter (SOM), 50-80% of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface water, and 25% of DOM in groundwater. They considerably contribute to climate change (CC) by generating greenhouse gases (GHG). On the other hand, CC affects HS, their structure and reactivity. HS important role in global warming has been recognized and extensively studied. However, much less attention has been paid so far to effects on the freshwater quality, which may result from the climate induced impact on HS, and HS interactions with contaminants in soil, surface water and groundwater. It is expected that an increased temperature and enhanced biodegradation of SOM will lead to an increase in the production of DOM, while the flooding and runoff will export it from soil to rivers, lakes, and groundwater. Microbial growth will be stimulated and biodegradation of pollutants in water can be enhanced. However, there may be also negative effects, including an inhibition of solar disinfection in brown lakes. The CC induced desorption from soil and sediments, as well as re-mobilization of metals and organic pollutants are anticipated. In-situ treatment of surface water and groundwater may be affected. Quality of the source freshwater is expected to deteriorate and drinking water production may become more expensive. Many of the possible effects of CC described in this article have yet to be explored and understood. Enormous potential for interesting, multidisciplinary studies in the important research areas has been presented.}, } @article {pmid30015117, year = {2018}, author = {Hesselschwerdt, J and Wantzen, KM}, title = {Global warming may lower thermal barriers against invasive species in freshwater ecosystems - A study from Lake Constance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {44-50}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.078}, pmid = {30015117}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {European freshwater ecosystems are increasingly invaded by exotic animal and plant species. Apart from increased connectivity between previously separated watersheds, the increasing temperature of the hydrosystems favors the spread of exotic species. The freshwater fauna of Central Europe is still shaped by the cold-adapted animal assemblages resulting from the last glaciation. It is less diverse, and the species are putatively less performant competitors, compared to the warm-adapted, species-rich fauna of the Ponto-Caspian realm, from which many current aquatic invaders are coming. Our study analyses potential mechanisms explaining the coexistence between one of the most impacting aquatic invaders of the past decades, the 'killer shrimp' Dikerogammarus villosus and the previously dominating amphipod Gammarus roeselii in Lake Constance, using laboratory predation experiments and field surveys. Our results indicate two key drivers for coexistence: low winter temperatures and the substrate structure of the alga Chara sp. At temperatures below 6 °C, the predation pressure on G. roeselii was strongly reduced; G. roeselii can therefore disperse throughout the littoral in winter, avoiding predation by D. villosus. Artificial heating of a section of the lake shore, however, resulted in local extinction of G. roeselii by D. villosus. The macroalga Chara sp. completely inhibited predation by D. villosus on G. roeselii. Climate change scenarios indicate that global warming might destroy this thermal refuge during winter until 2085. For the survival of G. roeselii it will then be crucial, which part of the Chara population will maintain epigeic plant parts during winter. The complex interplay between thermal and physical refuges for native species in the context of climate change and changing trophic status of freshwater systems, as disentangled by our study, shows that ecosystem management and restoration strategies need to better consider multiple stressors (and their rather complex mitigation strategies).}, } @article {pmid30014037, year = {2018}, author = {Riddell, EA and Odom, JP and Damm, JD and Sears, MW}, title = {Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {eaar5471}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aar5471}, pmid = {30014037}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Extinction rates are predicted to rise exponentially under climate warming, but many of these predictions ignore physiological and behavioral plasticity that might buffer species from extinction. We evaluated the potential for physiological acclimatization and behavioral avoidance of poor climatic conditions to lower extinction risk under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity, a region currently predicted to lose most of the salamander habitat due to warming. Our approach integrated experimental physiology and behavior into a mechanistic species distribution model to predict extinction risk based on an individual's capacity to maintain energy balance with and without plasticity. We assessed the sensitivity of extinction risk to body size, behavioral strategies, limitations on energy intake, and physiological acclimatization of water loss and metabolic rate. The field and laboratory experiments indicated that salamanders readily acclimatize water loss rates and metabolic rates in ways that could maintain positive energy balance. Projections with plasticity reduced extinction risk by 72% under climate warming, especially in the core of their range. Further analyses revealed that juveniles might experience the greatest physiological stress under climate warming, but we identified specific physiological adaptations or plastic responses that could minimize the lethal physiological stress imposed on juveniles. We conclude that incorporating plasticity fundamentally alters ecological predictions under climate change by reducing extinction risk in the hotspot of salamander diversity.}, } @article {pmid30013852, year = {2018}, author = {Riquelme, C and Estay, SA and López, R and Pastore, H and Soto-Gamboa, M and Corti, P}, title = {Protected areas' effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5222}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.5222}, pmid = {30013852}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.

Methods: To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)-RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.

Results: Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86-60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57-64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57-34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79-31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.

Discussion: Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.}, } @article {pmid30013133, year = {2018}, author = {Metcalfe, DB and Hermans, TDG and Ahlstrand, J and Becker, M and Berggren, M and Björk, RG and Björkman, MP and Blok, D and Chaudhary, N and Chisholm, C and Classen, AT and Hasselquist, NJ and Jonsson, M and Kristensen, JA and Kumordzi, BB and Lee, H and Mayor, JR and Prevéy, J and Pantazatou, K and Rousk, J and Sponseller, RA and Sundqvist, MK and Tang, J and Uddling, J and Wallin, G and Zhang, W and Ahlström, A and Tenenbaum, DE and Abdi, AM}, title = {Patchy field sampling biases understanding of climate change impacts across the Arctic.}, journal = {Nature ecology & evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {1443-1448}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0612-5}, pmid = {30013133}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Effective societal responses to rapid climate change in the Arctic rely on an accurate representation of region-specific ecosystem properties and processes. However, this is limited by the scarcity and patchy distribution of field measurements. Here, we use a comprehensive, geo-referenced database of primary field measurements in 1,840 published studies across the Arctic to identify statistically significant spatial biases in field sampling and study citation across this globally important region. We find that 31% of all study citations are derived from sites located within 50 km of just two research sites: Toolik Lake in the USA and Abisko in Sweden. Furthermore, relatively colder, more rapidly warming and sparsely vegetated sites are under-sampled and under-recognized in terms of citations, particularly among microbiology-related studies. The poorly sampled and cited areas, mainly in the Canadian high-Arctic archipelago and the Arctic coastline of Russia, constitute a large fraction of the Arctic ice-free land area. Our results suggest that the current pattern of sampling and citation may bias the scientific consensuses that underpin attempts to accurately predict and effectively mitigate climate change in the region. Further work is required to increase both the quality and quantity of sampling, and incorporate existing literature from poorly cited areas to generate a more representative picture of Arctic climate change and its environmental impacts.}, } @article {pmid30012226, year = {2018}, author = {Cuthbertson, J and Archer, F and Robertson, A}, title = {Special Report: WADEM Climate Change Position Statement.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {428-431}, doi = {10.1017/S1049023X18000535}, pmid = {30012226}, issn = {1945-1938}, abstract = {The World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM; Madison, Wisconsin USA) is a multi-disciplinary professional association whose mission is the global improvement of prehospital and emergency health care, public health, and disaster health and preparedness. In April 2017, the biennial general meeting of the World Congress for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WCDEM) endorsed the WADEM Climate Change Position Statement, which was subsequently published in Prehospital and Disaster Medicine in July 2017. This special report examines literature used and reviews the process of development of this Position Statement as a product of WADEM.Cuthbertson J, Archer F, Robertson A. Special report: WADEM climate change position statement. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(4):428-431.}, } @article {pmid30008520, year = {2018}, author = {Damert, M and Baumgartner, RJ}, title = {Intra-Sectoral Differences in Climate Change Strategies: Evidence from the Global Automotive Industry.}, journal = {Business strategy and the environment}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {265-281}, doi = {10.1002/bse.1968}, pmid = {30008520}, issn = {1099-0836}, abstract = {Companies are increasingly challenged for action on climate change. Most studies on business responses to climate change focus on cross-sector comparisons and neglect intra-sectoral dynamics. This paper investigates the influence of supply chain position and regional affiliation on climate change strategies within a particular industry. We present a generic framework integrating both market and non-market responses to climate change. We argue that climate change strategies comprise several corporate activities that have different foci of interaction and four main objectives: governance, innovation, compensation and legitimation. Using a global sample of 116 automotive companies, we conduct a cluster analysis and identify four types of strategy. We find that the sophistication of automobile manufacturers' strategies significantly differs from that of suppliers. Regional affiliation and firm size prove to be determinants of the strategy type pursued. We cannot find evidence for a relationship between financial performance and a company's strategic approach to climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Business Strategy and the Environment published by ERP Environment and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.}, } @article {pmid30007904, year = {2018}, author = {Lake, IR and Jones, NR and Agnew, M and Goodess, CM and Giorgi, F and Hamaoui-Laguel, L and Semenov, MA and Solmon, F and Storkey, J and Vautard, R and Epstein, MM}, title = {Erratum: "Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe".}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {7}, pages = {079002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP2073}, pmid = {30007904}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1289/EHP173.].}, } @article {pmid30006980, year = {2018}, author = {Chefaoui, RM and Duarte, CM and Serrão, EA}, title = {Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {4919-4928}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14401}, pmid = {30006980}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {SFRH/BPD/85040/2012//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; //Pew Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well-documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst-case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.}, } @article {pmid30006620, year = {2018}, author = {Zhu, K and Zhang, J and Niu, S and Chu, C and Luo, Y}, title = {Limits to growth of forest biomass carbon sink under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2709}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05132-5}, pmid = {30006620}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {Faculty Research Grant//University of California, Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz)/ ; 31625006//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Widely recognized as a significant carbon sink, North American forests have experienced a history of recovery and are facing an uncertain future. This growing carbon sink is dictated by recovery from land-use change, with growth trajectory modified by environmental change. To address both processes, we compiled a forest inventory dataset from North America to quantify aboveground biomass growth with stand age across forest types and climate gradients. Here we show, the biomass grows from 90 Mg ha-1 (2000-2016) to 105 Mg ha-1 (2020 s), 128 Mg ha-1 (2050 s), and 146 Mg ha-1 (2080 s) under climate change scenarios with no further disturbances. Climate change modifies the forest recovery trajectory to some extent, but the overall growth is limited, showing signs of biomass saturation. The future (2080s) biomass will only sequester at most 22% more carbon than the current level. Given such a strong sink has limited growth potential, our ground-based analysis suggests policy changes to sustain the carbon sink.}, } @article {pmid30004323, year = {2018}, author = {Chersich, MF and Scorgie, F and Rees, H and Wright, CY}, title = {How climate change can fuel listeriosis outbreaks in South Africa.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {108}, number = {6}, pages = {453-454}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2018.v108i6.13274}, pmid = {30004323}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics & numerical data ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics & numerical data ; *Food Microbiology ; Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology/microbiology ; Humans ; Listeriosis/*epidemiology/*transmission ; South Africa ; *Water Microbiology ; }, } @article {pmid30003633, year = {2018}, author = {Champion, C and Hobday, AJ and Tracey, SR and Pecl, GT}, title = {Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5440-5453}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14398}, pmid = {30003633}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Australian Society for Fish Biology's Michael Hall Student Innovation Award/ ; //The Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment-Equity Trustees Charitable Foundation/ ; //CSIRO-University of Tasmania Joint Quantitative Marine Science Program/ ; //Australian Research Council Future Fellowship/ ; }, abstract = {The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.}, } @article {pmid29996456, year = {2018}, author = {Reino, L and Triviño, M and Beja, P and Araújo, MB and Figueira, R and Segurado, P}, title = {Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {625}, number = {}, pages = {1596-1605}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.007}, pmid = {29996456}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021-2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist species were more affected by landscape factors than generalist species. Overall, this study showed that the contribution of current landscape composition and pattern to the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) was relatively low. However, SDMs built using either climate or climate plus landscape variables yielded very different predictions of future species range shifts and, hence, of the geographical patterns of change in species richness. Our results indicate that open habitat specialist species tend to expand their range, whereas habitat generalist species tend to retract under climate change scenarios. The effect of incorporating landscape factors were particularly marked on open habitat specialists of conservation concern, for which the expected expansion under climate change seems to be severely constrained by land cover change. Overall, results suggest that particular attention should be given to landscape change in addition to climate when modelling the impacts of environmental changes for both farmland specialist and generalist bird distributions.}, } @article {pmid29995321, year = {2018}, author = {Healy, TM and Brennan, RS and Whitehead, A and Schulte, PM}, title = {Tolerance traits related to climate change resilience are independent and polygenic.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5348-5360}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14386}, pmid = {29995321}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {Discovery Grant//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; DEB1265282//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB1601076//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {The resilience of organisms to climate change through adaptive evolution is dependent on the extent of genetically based variation in key phenotypic traits and the nature of genetic associations between them. For aquatic animals, upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are likely to be a important determinants of sensitivity to climate change. To determine the genetic basis of these traits and to detect associations between them, we compared naturally occurring populations of two subspecies of Atlantic killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus, that differ in both thermal and hypoxia tolerance. Multilocus association mapping demonstrated that 47 and 35 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explained 43.4% and 51.9% of variation in thermal and hypoxia tolerance, respectively, suggesting that genetic mechanisms underlie a substantial proportion of variation in each trait. However, no explanatory SNPs were shared between traits, and upper thermal tolerance varied approximately linearly with latitude, whereas hypoxia tolerance exhibited a steep phenotypic break across the contact zone between the subspecies. These results suggest that upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are neither phenotypically correlated nor genetically associated, and thus that rates of adaptive change in these traits can be independently fine-tuned by natural selection. This modularity of important traits can underpin the evolvability of organisms to complex future environmental change.}, } @article {pmid29991788, year = {2018}, author = {Thirumalai, K}, title = {A fresh take on ancient climate change in the North Pacific.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7713}, pages = {185-186}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05614-y}, pmid = {29991788}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid29990916, year = {2018}, author = {Shaffril, HAM and Krauss, SE and Samsuddin, SF}, title = {A systematic review on Asian's farmers' adaptation practices towards climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {683-695}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.349}, pmid = {29990916}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change in Asia is affecting farmers' daily routines. Much of the focus surrounding climate change has targeted the economic and environmental repercussions on farming. Few systematic reviews have been carried out on the social impacts of climate change among farmers in Asia. The present article set out to analyse the existing literature on Asian farmers' adaptation practices towards the impacts of climate change. Guided by the PRISMA Statement (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) review method, a systematic review of the Scopus and Web of Science databases identified 38 related studies. Further review of these articles resulted in six main themes - crop management, irrigation and water management, farm management, financial management, physical infrastructure management and social activities. These six themes further produced a total of 35 sub-themes. Several recommendations are highlighted related to conducting more qualitative studies, to have specific and a standard systematic review method for guide research synthesis in context of climate change adaptation and to practice complimentary searching techniques such as citation tracking, reference searching, snowballing and contacting experts.}, } @article {pmid29990360, year = {2018}, author = {Gateau-Rey, L and Tanner, EVJ and Rapidel, B and Marelli, JP and Royaert, S}, title = {Climate change could threaten cocoa production: Effects of 2015-16 El Niño-related drought on cocoa agroforests in Bahia, Brazil.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e0200454}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0200454}, pmid = {29990360}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate models predict a possible increase in the frequency of strong climate events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which in parts of the tropics are the cause of exceptional droughts, these threaten global food production. Agroforestry systems are often suggested as promising diversification options to increase farmers' resilience to extreme climatic events. In the Northeastern state of Bahia, where most Brazilian cocoa is grown in wildlife-friendly agroforests, ENSOs cause severe droughts which negatively affect forest and agriculture. Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) is described as being sensitive to drought but there are no field-studies of the effect of ENSO-related drought on adult cocoa trees in the America's; there is one study of an experimentally-imposed drought in Indonesia which resulted in 10 to 46% yield loss. In our study, in randomly chosen farms in Bahia, Brazil, we measured the effect of the 2015-16 severe ENSO, which caused an unprecedented drought in cocoa agroforests. We show that drought caused high cocoa tree mortality (15%) and severely decreased cocoa yield (89%); the drought also increased infection rate of the chronic fungal disease witches' broom (Moniliophthora perniciosa). Ours findings showed that Brazilian cocoa agroforests are at risk and that increasing frequency of strong droughts are likely to cause decreased cocoa yields in the coming decades. Furthermore, because cocoa, like many crops, is grown somewhat beyond its climatic limits, it and other crops could be the 'canaries in the coalmine' warning of forthcoming major drought effects on semi-natural and natural vegetation.}, } @article {pmid29990343, year = {2018}, author = {Sorensen, C and Murray, V and Lemery, J and Balbus, J}, title = {Climate change and women's health: Impacts and policy directions.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002603}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002603}, pmid = {29990343}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In a Policy Forum, Cecilia Sorensen and colleagues discuss the implications of climate change for women's health.}, } @article {pmid29989167, year = {2018}, author = {Bell, JJ and Rovellini, A and Davy, SK and Taylor, MW and Fulton, EA and Dunn, MR and Bennett, HM and Kandler, NM and Luter, HM and Webster, NS}, title = {Climate change alterations to ecosystem dominance: how might sponge-dominated reefs function?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {9}, pages = {1920-1931}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2446}, pmid = {29989167}, issn = {0012-9658}, support = {//Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic stressors are impacting ecological systems across the world. Of particular concern are the recent rapid changes occurring in coral reef systems. With ongoing degradation from both local and global stressors, future reefs are likely to function differently from current coral-dominated ecosystems. Determining key attributes of future reef states is critical to reliably predict outcomes for ecosystem service provision. Here we explore the impacts of changing sponge dominance on coral reefs. Qualitative modelling of reef futures suggests that changing sponge dominance due to increased sponge abundance will have different outcomes for other trophic levels compared with increased sponge dominance as a result of declining coral abundance. By exploring uncertainty in the model outcomes we identify the need to (1) quantify changes in carbon flow through sponges, (2) determine the importance of food limitation for sponges, (3) assess the ubiquity of the recently described "sponge loop," (4) determine the competitive relationships between sponges and other benthic taxa, particularly algae, and (5) understand how changing dominance of other organisms alters trophic pathways and energy flows through ecosystems. Addressing these knowledge gaps will facilitate development of more complex models that assess functional attributes of sponge-dominated reef ecosystems.}, } @article {pmid29988420, year = {2018}, author = {Harvey, BJ and Nash, KL and Blanchard, JL and Edwards, DP}, title = {Ecosystem-based management of coral reefs under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {6354-6368}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4146}, pmid = {29988420}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land-use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO 2 emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem-based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change-ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human-assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change-ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long-term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.}, } @article {pmid29986484, year = {2018}, author = {Madrigano, J and Lane, K and Petrovic, N and Ahmed, M and Blum, M and Matte, T}, title = {Awareness, Risk Perception, and Protective Behaviors for Extreme Heat and Climate Change in New York City.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15071433}, pmid = {29986484}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Preventing heat-related illness and death requires an understanding of who is at risk and why, and options for intervention. We sought to understand the drivers of socioeconomic disparities in heat-related vulnerability in New York City (NYC), the perceived risk of heat exposure and climate change, and barriers to protective behaviors. A random digit dial telephone survey of 801 NYC adults aged 18 and older was conducted from 22 September⁻1 October, 2015. Thirteen percent of the population did not possess an air conditioner (AC), and another 15% used AC never/infrequently. In adjusted models, odds of not possessing AC were greater for non-Hispanic blacks compared with other races/ethnicities, odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% CI: 1.1, 3.5), and for those with low annual household income, OR = 3.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 5.5). Only 12% reported going to a public place with AC if they could not keep cool at home. While low-income individuals were less likely to be aware of heat warnings, they were more likely to be concerned that heat could make them ill and that climate change would affect their health than participants with a higher household income, OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.3). In NYC, lack of access to AC partially explains disparities in heat-related health outcomes. Our results point to opportunities for knowledge building and engagement on heat-health awareness and climate change adaptation that can be applied in NYC and other metropolitan areas to improve and target public health prevention efforts.}, } @article {pmid29984270, year = {2018}, author = {Coates, SJ and Fox, LP}, title = {Disseminated coccidioidomycosis as a harbinger of climate change.}, journal = {JAAD case reports}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {424-425}, doi = {10.1016/j.jdcr.2017.11.017}, pmid = {29984270}, issn = {2352-5126}, } @article {pmid29983005, year = {2018}, author = {Dusenge, ME and Duarte, AG and Way, DA}, title = {Plant carbon metabolism and climate change: elevated CO2 and temperature impacts on photosynthesis, photorespiration and respiration.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15283}, pmid = {29983005}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {//Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science/ ; //Canadian Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council/ ; 200091/2015-8//CNPQ/ ; }, abstract = {Contents Summary I. The importance of plant carbon metabolism for climate change II. Rising atmospheric CO2 and carbon metabolism III. Rising temperatures and carbon metabolism IV. Thermal acclimation responses of carbon metabolic processes can be best understood when studied together V. Will elevated CO2 offset warming-induced changes in carbon metabolism? VI. No plant is an island: water and nutrient limitations define plant responses to climate drivers VII. Conclusions Acknowledgements References Appendix A1 SUMMARY: Plant carbon metabolism is impacted by rising CO2 concentrations and temperatures, but also feeds back onto the climate system to help determine the trajectory of future climate change. Here we review how photosynthesis, photorespiration and respiration are affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate warming, both separately and in combination. We also compile data from the literature on plants grown at multiple temperatures, focusing on net CO2 assimilation rates and leaf dark respiration rates measured at the growth temperature (Agrowth and Rgrowth , respectively). Our analyses show that the ratio of Agrowth to Rgrowth is generally homeostatic across a wide range of species and growth temperatures, and that species that have reduced Agrowth at higher growth temperatures also tend to have reduced Rgrowth , while species that show stimulations in Agrowth under warming tend to have higher Rgrowth in the hotter environment. These results highlight the need to study these physiological processes together to better predict how vegetation carbon metabolism will respond to climate change.}, } @article {pmid29981997, year = {2018}, author = {Shrestha, S}, title = {Editorial of special issue on climate change impact on water environment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {474}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.031}, pmid = {29981997}, issn = {1879-1026}, } @article {pmid29981032, year = {2018}, author = {Williams, L}, title = {Climate change, colonialism, and women's well-being in Canada: what is to be done?.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {268-271}, doi = {10.17269/s41997-018-0031-z}, pmid = {29981032}, issn = {1920-7476}, abstract = {The impacts of accelerating climate change across Canada are unequally distributed between populations and regions. Emerging evidence shows climate change and resultant policies to be worsening gendered social and economic inequities between women and men, with women's participation largely absent in climate change research and decision-making. These dynamics are resulting in negative impacts for women's well-being, with Indigenous and historically marginalized women at increased risk of experiencing health inequities as a result of climate change. To date, public health discourse has largely failed to incorporate gender as a key determinant of health in discussions of climate change impacts on populations. Paralleling this lack of development, the entangled relationship between climate and colonialism tends to be subsumed under the term "Aboriginality" within health determinants discourse. This commentary on gender and climate change in Canada is framed within a radical intersectional approach as an alternative course of public health analysis and action aimed at addressing resulting health and power inequities. Following an overview of evidence regarding the gendered impacts of climate change on women's work, roles, agency, and well-being, several possible public health action areas on climate change and gender are highlighted as necessary components for resilient communities capable of meeting contemporary challenges.}, } @article {pmid29980966, year = {2018}, author = {Salazar-Parra, C and Aranjuelo, I and Pascual, I and Aguirreolea, J and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Irigoyen, JJ and Araus, JL and Morales, F}, title = {Is vegetative area, photosynthesis, or grape C uploading involved in the climate change-related grape sugar/anthocyanin decoupling in Tempranillo?.}, journal = {Photosynthesis research}, volume = {138}, number = {1}, pages = {115-128}, doi = {10.1007/s11120-018-0552-6}, pmid = {29980966}, issn = {1573-5079}, support = {BFU2008-01405/BFI//Science and Innovation Spanish Ministry/ ; AGL2014-56075-C2-1-R//Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad/ ; A03 group//Aragón Government/ ; IT-932-16//Basque Government/ ; }, abstract = {Foreseen climate change is expected to impact on grape composition, both sugar and pigment content. We tested the hypothesis that interactions between main factors associated with climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature, and water deficit) decouple sugars and anthocyanins, and explored the possible involvement of vegetative area, photosynthesis, and grape C uploading on the decoupling. Tempranillo grapevine fruit-bearing cuttings were exposed to CO2 (700 vs. 400 ppm), temperature (ambient vs. + 4 °C), and irrigation levels (partial vs. full) in temperature-gradient greenhouses. In a search for mechanistic insights into the underlying processes, experiments 1 and 2 were designed to maximize photosynthesis and enlarge leaf area range among treatments, whereas plant growth was manipulated in order to deliberately down-regulate photosynthesis and control vegetative area in experiments 3 and 4. Towards this aim, treatments were applied either from fruit set to maturity with free vegetation and fully irrigated or at 5-8% of pot capacity (experiments 1 and 2), or from veraison to maturity with controlled vegetation and fully irrigated or at 40% of pot capacity (experiments 3 and 4). Modification of air 13C isotopic composition under elevated CO2 enabled the further characterization of whole C fixation period and C partitioning to grapes. Increases of the grape sugars-to-anthocyanins ratio were highly and positively correlated with photosynthesis and grape 13C labeling, but not with vegetative area. Evidence is presented for photosynthesis, from fruit set to veraison, and grape C uploading, from veraison to maturity, as key processes involved in the establishment and development, respectively, of the grape sugars to anthocyanins decoupling.}, } @article {pmid29980735, year = {2018}, author = {Muller, M}, title = {Cape Town's drought: don't blame climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7713}, pages = {174-176}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05649-1}, pmid = {29980735}, issn = {1476-4687}, } @article {pmid29980085, year = {2018}, author = {Leng, G}, title = {Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C reduces future risk of yield loss in the United States: A probabilistic modeling approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {52-59}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.344}, pmid = {29980085}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study assess the possible outcomes of yield changes in the United States which is responsible for 40% of global maize supply under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios. Instead of providing deterministic estimates, this study introduces a probability-based approach that allow for examination of the associated probability of each outcome, which has great implications for decision-makings. Results show distinct spatial patterns in future yield loss risk associated with temperature rise at the county scale, with highest probability in central and southeastern US, and lowest risk in western US and high production regions such as Iowa. Comparing the estimates under 1.5 °C global warming against that in 2.0 °C warming indicates that keeping global warming within 1.5 °C has great benefits for reducing future yield loss risk. Based on the ensemble mean of 97 climate model simulations, the risk of yield dropping below historical long-term mean is projected to decrease from 81% to 75% for the country as a whole. Such benefit is more evident when considering the risk of yield reduction by 10% and 20%, which is expected to decrease by 25% and 28%, respectively. This suggests that constraining global temperature rise to 1.5 °C has more benefits for reducing extreme yield reductions. Spatially, keeping global warming within 1.5 °C would benefit more in Missouri, South Dakota, Eastern Kansas, Southern Texas and southeastern part of the country than other regions, highlighting the spatially variable benefits of climate mitigation efforts. The analysis framework introduced in this study can also be easily extended to other regions and crops. The results of this study highlight the areas where maize yield is most vulnerable to temperature rise, and the spatially variable benefits for reducing yield loss risk by keeping global warming within 1.5 °C.}, } @article {pmid29979762, year = {2018}, author = {Kerr, JR and Wilson, MS}, title = {Changes in perceived scientific consensus shift beliefs about climate change and GM food safety.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e0200295}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0200295}, pmid = {29979762}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus, a sizable minority of people doubt that human activity is causing climate change. Communicating the existence of a scientific consensus has been suggested as a way to correct individuals' misperceptions about human-caused climate change and other scientific issues, though empirical support is mixed. We report an experiment in which psychology students were presented with consensus information about two issues, and subsequently reported their perception of the level of consensus and extent of their endorsement of those issues. We find that messages about scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change and the safety of genetically modified food shift perceptions of scientific consensus. Using mediation models we also show that, for both these issues, high consensus messages also increase reported personal agreement with the scientific consensus, mediated by changes in perceptions of a scientific consensus. This confirms the role of perceived consensus in informing personal beliefs about climate change, though results indicate the impact of single, one-off messages may be limited.}, } @article {pmid29975596, year = {2018}, author = {Evans, GW}, title = {Projected Behavioral Impacts of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-psych-010418-103023}, pmid = {29975596}, issn = {1545-2085}, abstract = {The projected behavioral impacts of global climate change emanate from environmental changes including temperature elevation, extreme weather events, and rising air pollution. Negative affect, interpersonal and intergroup conflict, and possibly psychological distress increase with rising temperature. Droughts, floods, and severe storms diminish quality of life, elevate stress, produce psychological distress, and may elevate interpersonal and intergroup conflict. Recreational opportunities are compromised by extreme weather, and children may suffer delayed cognitive development. Elevated pollutants concern citizens and may accentuate psychological distress. Outdoor recreational activity is curtailed by ambient pollutants. Limitations and issues in need of further investigation include the following: lack of data on direct experience with climate change rather than indirect assessments related to projected changes; poor spatial resolution in environmental exposures and behavioral assessments; few rigorous quasi-experimental studies; overreliance on self-reports of behavioral outcomes; little consideration of moderator effects; and scant investigation of underlying psychosocial processes to explain projected behavioral impacts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Psychology Volume 70 is January 4, 2019. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.}, } @article {pmid29974714, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, TY and Wu, JG and Wang, L}, title = {[The effects of climate change on isoprene emission rate from leaves of Pleioblastus amarus in different regions.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {2028-2042}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201806.031}, pmid = {29974714}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Butadienes/*analysis ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Hemiterpenes/*analysis ; Pentanes/*analysis ; Plant Leaves/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios produced by the global climate model NorESM1-M and plant isoprene emissions model, the effects of climate change on the isoprene emission rate from leaves of Pleioblastus amarus in Yixing City of Jiangsu Province, Longmen County of Guangdong Province, Yulong Naxi Autonomous County of Yunnan Province and Wanyuan City of Sichuan Province were simulated. The differences of isoprene emission rate from leaves of P. amarus distributed in four regions were compared under future climate change scenarios. The results showed that mean annual air temperature would increase, annual precipitation and radiation intensity would greatly fluctuate, with the coexistence of increasing and decreasing trends in the four regions. In the baseline scenario, daily mean emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was 71-470 μg·g-1·d-1, and annual mean value was 25954-171231 μg·g-1·a-1. The daily and annual emission rates in the four regions decreased with the order of Longmen, Yixing, Wanyuan and Yulong. Compared with the baseline scenario, daily mean emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was about 4-45 μg·g-1·d-1 higher in future climate change scenario, and which was about 23, 29, 4, and 14 μg·g-1·d-1 higher than that in baseline in Yixing, Longmen, Yulong and Wanyuan, respectively. In addition, the emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was more than 5% higher in the future climate change scenario than that in the baseline scenario, which was higher in Wanyuan and Yixing (>13%) than and lower in Longmen and Yulong (>5%). All the four regions reached the highest rate under RCP8.5 scenario (increased by about 11%-18%). Compared with the baseline scenario, annual emission rate of isoprene in the future climate change scenario was about 1500-17000 μg·g-1·a-1, and which was about 8560-13208 μg·g-1·a-1 higher in Yixing, 10862-16131 μg·g-1·a-1 higher in Longmen, 1574-3028 μg·g-1·a-1 higher in Yulong, 5288-8532 μg·g-1·a-1 higher in Wanyuan. In addition, the increasing rate of annual isoprene emission rates was 6%-14%. The rates in Yixing (8%-12%) and Wanyuan (8%-14%) were higher than that in the other two regions, the rate in Yulong (6%-12% increase) was the lowest, with all four regions increasing substantially (9%-14%) under RCP8.5 scenario. The results suggested that climate change would have different effects on the rate of isoprene emissions from leaves of P. amarus distributed in diffe-rent regions.}, } @article {pmid29974629, year = {2018}, author = {Carroll, W and Graham, N and Lang, MK and Yunker, Z and McCartney, KD}, title = {The Corporate Elite and the Architecture of Climate Change Denial: A Network Analysis of Carbon Capital's Reach into Civil Society.}, journal = {Canadian review of sociology = Revue canadienne de sociologie}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {425-450}, doi = {10.1111/cars.12211}, pmid = {29974629}, issn = {1755-618X}, abstract = {This study employs social network analysis to map the Canadian network of carbon-capital corporations whose boards interlock with key knowledge-producing civil society organizations, including think tanks, industry associations, business advocacy organizations, universities, and research institutes. We find a pervasive pattern of carbon-sector reach into these domains of civil society, forming a single, connected network that is centered in Alberta yet linked to the central-Canadian corporate elite through hegemonic capitalist organizations, including major financial companies. This structure provides the architecture for a "soft" denial regime that acknowledges climate change while protecting the continued flow of profit to fossil fuel and related companies.}, } @article {pmid29971745, year = {2018}, author = {Paul, S and Deka, RC and Gour, NK}, title = {Kinetics, mechanism, and global warming potentials of HFO-1234yf initiated by O3 molecules and NO3 radicals: insights from quantum study.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {26}, pages = {26144-26156}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-2633-7}, pmid = {29971745}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {F.4-2/2006(BSR)/CH/16-17/0152//University Grants Commission/ ; }, abstract = {In the present investigation, the oxidation of HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) with O3 molecule and NO3 radical is studied by quantum chemical methods. The possible reaction pathways of the titled molecule with O3 molecule and NO3 radical are analyzed using M06-2X meta-hybrid density functional with the 6-311++G(d,p) basis set. We have further employed a series of single-point energy calculations by using a potentially high-level couple cluster method with single and double excitations, including p