@article {pmid32492591,
year = {2020},
author = {Chen, H and Rücker, AM and Su, Q and Blosser, GD and Liu, X and Conner, WH and Chow, AT},
title = {Dynamics of dissolved organic matter and disinfection byproduct precursors along a low elevation gradient in woody wetlands - an implication of hydrologic impacts of climate change on source water quality.},
journal = {Water research},
volume = {181},
number = {},
pages = {115908},
doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2020.115908},
pmid = {32492591},
issn = {1879-2448},
abstract = {Foliar litter is an important terrestrial source of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in the source water supply. Climate changes could alter precipitation patterns and hydroperiods in woody wetlands, resulting in a hydrologic shift along the low elevation gradient and change the productions of DOC and DBP precursors and their exports to source water. Here, we conducted an 80-week field decomposition study using fresh-fallen leaves along an elevation gradient, representing well-drained, relatively moist, and inundated environments, in Congaree National Park, South Carolina. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yield and formation potential (FP) of trihalomethanes (THMs; a dominant category of studied DBPs) were 48.9-79.7 mg-DOC/g-litter and 2.23-6.57 mg/g-litter in the freshly fallen leaf litter, respectively. The level of leachable DOM and its DBP FP decreased with time, and during the first 16 weeks of decomposition, the decomposing litter served as an important source of leachable DOM and DBP precursors. Week 28 was a turning point for DOM optical properties, with fewer tyrosine/tryptophan/soluble microbial byproduct-like compounds and more aromatic, humified, and fulvic/humic acid-like compounds. Litterfall primarily occurred from September to January, while less precipitation occurred from October to January, indicating that large amounts of DOC and DBP precursors could be leached from litterfall in February. In the first 16 weeks of field exposure study, we observed higher residual mass and lower water-extractable DOC and DTN in more inundated environments, demonstrating that the shifts of DOM composition and DBP precursors if climate reduces rainfall in the southeastern US.},
}
@article {pmid32489602,
year = {2020},
author = {Zhang, Y and Meng, Q and Wang, Y and Zhang, X and Wang, W},
title = {Climate change-induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {10},
pages = {4352-4361},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.6202},
pmid = {32489602},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.},
}
@article {pmid32488356,
year = {2020},
author = {Azhdari, Z and Rafeie Sardooi, E and Bazrafshan, O and Zamani, H and Singh, VP and Mohseni Saravi, M and Ramezani, M},
title = {Impact of climate change on net primary production (NPP) in south Iran.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {6},
pages = {409},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08389-w},
pmid = {32488356},
issn = {1573-2959},
abstract = {Climate change is a natural hazard which threatens the sustainable development of human health, food security, economic well-being, and natural resources. It also affects photosynthesis, plant respiration, and decomposition of organic matter that contribute to atmospheric carbon flow. The net primary production (NPP) is one of the main components of carbon balance. This study investigated the impact of climatic change on the net production in the Hormozgan county in south Iran. To obtain NPP, MODIS NPP product (MOD17A3) was used and future temperature and precipitation values were obtained using the HadGEM2-ES model under the RCP4.5 scenario. These values were downscaled using the LARSWG 6 statistical model, and precipitation and temperature were simulated for the RCP4.5 scenario. For further analysis, NPP was simulated based on the BIOME-BGC model and compared with the NPP data obtained from the MODIS images. Comparison of the climatic parameters of the basic (2001-2015) and future (2016-2030) periods indicated an increase in precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature of the study area and subsequently an increase in the NPP value in all biomes (averagely 17.73%) in the future. The highest NPP values were observed in the central and western parts of the region in biomes 4 (mangrove forest cover), 10 (broadleaf forest vegetation), and 6, 5, and 1 (rangeland vegetation), respectively, and the lowest values were observed in the eastern parts. Results showed that the increase in future NPP could be due to the increase in precipitation.},
}
@article {pmid32488006,
year = {2020},
author = {Seersholm, FV and Werndly, DJ and Grealy, A and Johnson, T and Keenan Early, EM and Lundelius, EL and Winsborough, B and Farr, GE and Toomey, R and Hansen, AJ and Shapiro, B and Waters, MR and McDonald, G and Linderholm, A and Stafford, TW and Bunce, M},
title = {Rapid range shifts and megafaunal extinctions associated with late Pleistocene climate change.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {2770},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16502-3},
pmid = {32488006},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {Large-scale changes in global climate at the end of the Pleistocene significantly impacted ecosystems across North America. However, the pace and scale of biotic turnover in response to both the Younger Dryas cold period and subsequent Holocene rapid warming have been challenging to assess because of the scarcity of well dated fossil and pollen records that covers this period. Here we present an ancient DNA record from Hall's Cave, Texas, that documents 100 vertebrate and 45 plant taxa from bulk fossils and sediment. We show that local plant and animal diversity dropped markedly during Younger Dryas cooling, but while plant diversity recovered in the early Holocene, animal diversity did not. Instead, five extant and nine extinct large bodied animals disappeared from the region at the end of the Pleistocene. Our findings suggest that climate change affected the local ecosystem in Texas over the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary, but climate change on its own may not explain the disappearance of the megafauna at the end of the Pleistocene.},
}
@article {pmid32487279,
year = {2020},
author = {Mörchen, M and Ocasiones, E and Relator, R and Lewis, D},
title = {Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Disability: Do We "Leave No One Behind"?.},
journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {1-2},
doi = {10.1017/dmp.2020.79},
pmid = {32487279},
issn = {1938-744X},
}
@article {pmid32485868,
year = {2020},
author = {Azarkamand, S and Wooldridge, C and Darbra, RM},
title = {Review of Initiatives and Methodologies to Reduce CO2 Emissions and Climate Change Effects in Ports.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {11},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17113858},
pmid = {32485868},
issn = {1660-4601},
abstract = {Ports are important infrastructures for economic growth and development. Among the most significant environmental aspects of ports that contribute to the issue of climate change are those due to carbon dioxide emissions generated by port activities. Given the importance of this topic, this paper gathers initiatives and methodologies that have been undertaken to calculate and reduce CO2 emissions and climate change effects in ports. After studying these methodologies, their strengths and opportunities for further enhancement have been analyzed. The results show that, in recent years, several ports have started to calculate their carbon footprint and report it. However, in some of the cases, not all the sources of GHG gases that are occurring actually in ports are taken into account, such as emissions from waste treatment operations and employees' commuting. On other occasions, scopes are not defined following standard guidelines. Furthermore, each authority or operator uses its own method to calculate CO2 emissions, which makes the comparison of results difficult. For these reasons, this paper suggests the need for creating a standardized tool to calculate carbon footprint in ports, which will make it possible to establish a benchmark and a potential comparison of results among ports.},
}
@article {pmid32481100,
year = {2013},
author = {Sherwin, GL and George, L and Kannangara, K and Tissue, DT and Ghannoum, O},
title = {Impact of industrial-age climate change on the relationship between water uptake and tissue nitrogen in eucalypt seedlings.},
journal = {Functional plant biology : FPB},
volume = {40},
number = {2},
pages = {201-212},
doi = {10.1071/FP12130},
pmid = {32481100},
issn = {1445-4416},
abstract = {This study explored reductions in tissue nitrogen concentration ([N]) at elevated CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), and changes in plant water and N uptake. Eucalyptus saligna Sm. seedlings were grown under three [CO2] levels (preindustrial (280μLL-1), current (400μLL-1) or projected (640μLL-1)) and two air temperatures (current, (current+4°C)). Gravimetric water use, leaf gas exchange and tissue dry mass and %N were determined. Solid-state 15N-NMR spectroscopy was used for determining the partitioning of N chemical groups in the dry matter fractions. Water use efficiency (WUE) improved with increasing [CO2] at ambient temperature, but strong leaf area and weak reductions in transpiration rates led to greater water use at elevated [CO2]. High temperature increased plant water use, such that WUE was not significantly stimulated by increasing [CO2] at high temperature. Total N uptake increased with increasing [CO2] but not temperature, less than the increase recorded for plant biomass. Tissue [N] decreased with rising [CO2] and at high temperature, but N use efficiency increased with rising [CO2]. Total N uptake was positively correlated with total water use and root biomass under all treatments. Growth [CO2] and temperature did not affect the partitioning of 15N among the N chemical groups. The reductions of tissue [N] with [CO2] and temperature were generic, not specific to particular N compounds. The results suggest that reductions in tissue [N] are caused by changes in root N uptake by mass flow due to altered transpiration rates at elevated [CO2] and temperature.},
}
@article {pmid32485751,
year = {2020},
author = {Looks, P and Borchers, P and Reinfried, F and Oertel, H and Kugler, J},
title = {[Environmental Justice: Subjective Heat Exposure as a Result of Climate Change in Contrasting Urban Neighborhoods].},
journal = {Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1055/a-1138-0355},
pmid = {32485751},
issn = {1439-4421},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: The City of Dresden has no data on the perception of climate change and the associated increase in the average temperature during summer times yet. The data are needed to develop targeted action for vulnerable groups.<br><br>METHOD: To close this gap, a representative survey of the population was carried out in Dresden in 2017. Two urban districts, which differ from one another both in terms of urban planning and social structure, were compared, in particular, regarding the question of whether there was a fair distribution or procedural justice concerning the effects of subjective heat burden and influencing factors.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that especially inhabitants of the urban area with predominantly prefabricated buildings, less green space and an increased proportion of socially disadvantaged felt more exposed to the summer heat and had fewer opportunities to adapt to the high temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In addition to urban development measures, the results can be used to derive measures for the prevention of heat-related illnesses. These require, for example, increased advice and health education locally to reach people.},
}
@article {pmid32485590,
year = {2020},
author = {Gibson, KE and Barnett, J and Haslam, N and Kaplan, I},
title = {The mental health impacts of climate change: Findings from a Pacific Island atoll nation.},
journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders},
volume = {73},
number = {},
pages = {102237},
doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102237},
pmid = {32485590},
issn = {1873-7897},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on mental health, particularly among populations that are simultaneously ecologically and economically vulnerable to its impacts. Various pathways through which climate change can impact mental health have been theorised, but the impacts themselves remain understudied.<br><br>PURPOSE: In this article we applied psychological methods to examine if climate change is affecting individuals' mental health in the Small Island Developing State of Tuvalu, a Pacific Island nation regarded as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change. We determined the presence of psychological distress and associated impairment attributed to two categories of climate change-related stressors in particular: 1) local environmental impacts caused or exacerbated by climate change, and 2) hearing about global climate change and contemplating its future implications.<br><br>METHODS: The findings draw on data collected in a mixed-method study involving 100 Tuvaluan participants. Data were collected via face-to-face structured interviews that lasted 45 min on average and were subjected to descriptive, correlational, and between-group analyses.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings revealed participants' experiences of distress in relation to both types of stressor, and demonstrated that a high proportion of participants are experiencing psychological distress at levels that reportedly cause them impairment in one or more areas of daily life.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings lend weight to the claim that climate change represents a risk to mental health and obliges decision-makers to consider these risks when conceptualizing climate-related harms or tallying the costs of inaction.},
}
@article {pmid32485463,
year = {2020},
author = {Ahmed, M},
title = {Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {734},
number = {},
pages = {139397},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397},
pmid = {32485463},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.},
}
@article {pmid32485455,
year = {2020},
author = {Zhang, P and Dong, X and Grenouillet, G and Lek, S and Zheng, Y and Chang, J},
title = {Species range shifts in response to climate change and human pressure for the world's largest amphibian.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {735},
number = {},
pages = {139543},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139543},
pmid = {32485455},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The Chinese giant salamander, Andrias davidianus, the world's largest amphibian, is critically endangered and has an extremely unique evolutionary history. Therefore, this species represents a global conservation priority and will be impacted by future climate and human pressures. Understanding the range and response to environmental change of this species is a priority for the identification of targeted conservation activities. We projected future range shifts of the Chinese giant salamander under the independent and combined impacts of climate change and human population density (HPD) variations by using ensemble species distribution models. We further evaluated the sustainability of existing nature reserves and identified priority areas for the mitigation or prevention of such pressures. Both climate change and increasing HPD tended to reduce the species range, with the latter leading to greater range losses and fragmentation of the range. Notably, 65.6%, 18.0% and 18.4% of the range loss were attributed solely to HPD change, solely to climate change and to their overlapping impacts, respectively. Overall, the average total and net losses of the species range were 52.5% and 23.4%, respectively, and HPD and climate changes were responsible for 71.4% and 28.6% of the net losses, respectively. We investigated the stability of the remaining species range and found that half of the nature reserves are likely vulnerable, with 57.1% and 66.7% of them likely to lose their conservation value in 2050 and 2070, respectively. To effectively protect this salamander, conservation policies should address both pressures simultaneously, especially considering the negative impact of human pressures in both contemporary periods and the near future. The species range shifts over space and time projected by this research could help guide long-term surveys and the sustainable conservation of wild habitats and populations of this ancient and endangered amphibian.},
}
@article {pmid32485454,
year = {2020},
author = {Nascimbene, J and Benesperi, R and Casazza, G and Chiarucci, A and Giordani, P},
title = {Range shifts of native and invasive trees exacerbate the impact of climate change on epiphyte distribution: The case of lung lichen and black locust in Italy.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {735},
number = {},
pages = {139537},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139537},
pmid = {32485454},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {While changing climatic conditions may directly impact species distribution ranges, indirect effects related to altered biotic interactions may exacerbate range shifts. This situation fully applies to epiphytic lichens that are sensitive to climatic factors and strongly depend on substrate occurrence and features for their dispersal and establishment. In this work, we modelled the climatic suitability across Italy under current and future climate of the forest species Lobaria pulmonaria, the lung lichen. Comparatively, we modelled the suitability of its main tree species in Italy, as well as that of the alien tree Robinia pseudoacacia, black locust, whose spread may cause the decline of many forest lichen species. Our results support the view that climate change may cause range shifts of epiphytes by altering the spatial pattern of their climatic suitability (direct effect) and simultaneously causing range shifts of their host-tree species (indirect effect). This phenomenon seems to be emphasized by the invasion of alien trees, as in the case of black locust, that may replace native host tree species. Results indicate that a reduction of the habitat suitability of the lung lichen across Italy should be expected in the face of climate change and that this is coupled with a loss of suitable substrate. This situation seems to be determined by two main processes that act simultaneously: 1) a partial reduction of the spatial overlap between the climatic niche of the lung lichen and that of its host tree species, and 2) the invasion of native woods by black locust. The case of lung lichen and black locust in Italy highlights that epiphytes are prone to both direct and indirect effects of climate change. The invasion of alien trees may have consequences that are still poorly evaluated for epiphytes.},
}
@article {pmid32485369,
year = {2020},
author = {Rocha, J and Carvalho-Santos, C and Diogo, P and Beça, P and Keizer, JJ and Nunes, JP},
title = {Impacts of climate change on reservoir water availability, quality and irrigation needs in a water scarce Mediterranean region (southern Portugal).},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {736},
number = {},
pages = {139477},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139477},
pmid = {32485369},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Future climate for the Mediterranean climatic region is expected to bring an increase in temperatures, decrease in the precipitation quantity and shifts in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Although the impacts of climate change on water resources have been relatively well explored for the Mediterranean climatic region, the specific consequences for reservoirs and, in particular, water availability and irrigation issues have been less studied. The objective of this work is two-fold: (i) to assess the impacts of future climate changes on water resources availability, quality (focusing on phosphorus loads as this is the limiting nutrient for eutrophication) and irrigation needs for two multipurpose reservoirs in southern Portugal; (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation strategies, especially for the agricultural sector. To this end, the SWAT model was first calibrated against existing data on reservoir inflows as well as phosphorus loads. Then, SWAT was run with climate derived EURO-CORDEX models (RCA4/RACMO22E) for four periods (1970-2000, 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100). Water availability was analysed using the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) that was calculated for both reservoirs combining changes of inflows and irrigation requirements. The results indicated that climate change will negatively impact water availability in both reservoirs, especially under RCP8.5. In the case of the Monte Novo reservoir, future domestic water supply could be constrained by water quality problems related with phosphorus loads. For Vigia reservoir, the high water exploitation will lead to water scarcity problems, mainly as this reservoir on present-day conditions is restrictive on irrigation requirements. Adaptation strategies such as the implementation of high end technology (e.g. soil moisture and plant water stress probes, satellite imagery and drones to evaluate water stress - NDVI) as well as the renewal of the irrigation network and adequate crop selection can help attenuating the effects of climate change on the water resources in this region.},
}
@article {pmid32483816,
year = {2020},
author = {Paltseva, AA and Neaman, A},
title = {An Emerging Frontier: Metal(loid) Soil Pollution Threat under Global Climate Change.},
journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1002/etc.4790},
pmid = {32483816},
issn = {1552-8618},
abstract = {The impact of climate change (global warming) and associated extreme events on soil pollution and metal mobility in soils have received very little attention. Global warming leads to increased soil and atmospheric temperatures, more frequent and severe extreme events, and, consequently, soil erosion. Changes in soil characteristics and hydrology alter how metal(loid)s are transported around a terrestrial environment, diluted in water bodies, and mobilized in soil. Past studies show increases in blood lead concentrations during droughty periods when soil is dry and dusty and decreases in blood lead concentrations during rainy periods when soil is wet and dust is settled. Droughts lead to reduced soil microbial survival, colonization, diversity, and function. When plants are stunted under drought conditions, concentrations of trace metals can be elevated in the tissues to potentially contaminated agricultural produce or enhanced metal uptake by plants. Increased evapotranspiration rates could also lead to translocation of metals from deeper soil layers to the rhizosphere being more readily available for plant uptake. Crop metal concentrations increase when soil temperatures are higher. Even though there an increasing number of articles published on the topics of global warming/climate change and soil metal pollution, it is still not clear what will happen to metals with accelerated evapotranspiration, more rapid organic matter breakdown in soil, faster release from soil particles and diffusion to roots, etc. Thus, the effects of climate change on soil pollution by metals, i.e. their concentrations, mobility, and distribution, require immediate attention to prevent future human and ecosystem damage. We encourage studies that explicitly relate the effects of temperature on metal behavior in soils due to global warming/climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid32483233,
year = {2020},
author = {Johansson, F and Orizaola, G and Nilsson-Örtman, V},
title = {Temperate insects with narrow seasonal activity periods can be as vulnerable to climate change as tropical insect species.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {8822},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-65608-7},
pmid = {32483233},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {The magnitude and ecological impact of climate change varies with latitude. Several recent models have shown that tropical ectotherms face the greatest risk from warming because they currently experience temperatures much closer to their physiological optimum than temperate taxa. Even a small increase in temperature may thus result in steep fitness declines in tropical species but increased fitness in temperate species. This prediction, however, is based on a model that does not account for latitudinal differences in activity periods. Temperate species in particular may often experience considerably higher temperatures than expected during the active season. Here, we integrate data on insect warming tolerance and temperature-dependent development to re-evaluate latitudinal trends in thermal safety margins after accounting for latitudinal trends in insect seasonal activity. Our analyses suggest that temperate and tropical species differ far less in thermal safety margins than commonly assumed, and add to the recent number of studies suggesting that tropical and temperate species might face similar levels of threat from climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32481503,
year = {2020},
author = {Timmusk, S and Nevo, E and Ayele, F and Noe, S and Niinemets, Y},
title = {Fighting Fusarium Pathogens in the Era of Climate Change: A Conceptual Approach.},
journal = {Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)},
volume = {9},
number = {6},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/pathogens9060419},
pmid = {32481503},
issn = {2076-0817},
support = {2017-5224//Vetenskapsrådet/ ; },
abstract = {Fusarium head blight (FHB) caused by Fusarium pathogens is one of the most devastating fungal diseases of small grain cereals worldwide, substantially reducing yield quality and food safety. Its severity is increasing due to the climate change caused by weather fluctuations. Intensive research on FHB control methods has been initiated more than a decade ago. Since then, the environment has been rapidly changing at regional to global scales due to increasing anthropogenic emissions enhanced fertilizer application and substantial changes in land use. It is known that environmental factors affect both the pathogen virulence as well as plant resistance mechanisms. Changes in CO2 concentration, temperature, and water availability can have positive, neutral, or negative effects on pathogen spread depending on the environmental optima of the pathosystem. Hence, there is a need for studies of plant-pathogen interactions in current and future environmental context. Long-term monitoring data are needed in order to understand the complex nature of plants and its microbiome interactions. We suggest an holobiotic approach, integrating plant phyllosphere microbiome research on the ecological background. This will enable the development of efficient strategies based on ecological know-how to fight Fusarium pathogens and maintain sustainable agricultural systems.},
}
@article {pmid32480230,
year = {2020},
author = {Ahmed, M},
title = {Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {734},
number = {},
pages = {139397},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397},
pmid = {32480230},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.},
}
@article {pmid32479675,
year = {2020},
author = {Astigarraga, J and Andivia, E and Zavala, MA and Gazol, A and Cruz-Alonso, V and Vicente-Serrano, SM and Ruiz-Benito, P},
title = {Evidence of non-stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15198},
pmid = {32479675},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non-stationary (i.e., non-time-stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here, we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory (SFI) covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and aboveground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and aboveground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non-stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Aboveground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32477890,
year = {2020},
author = {Ros, AV and LaRocque, R and Fortinsky, R and Nicholas, P},
title = {Addressing Climate Change Communication: Effective Engagement of Populations for Climate Action in the US and Globally.},
journal = {Annals of global health},
volume = {86},
number = {1},
pages = {54},
doi = {10.5334/aogh.2900},
pmid = {32477890},
issn = {2214-9996},
abstract = {Background: Communication about climate change is critical in addressing the greatest public health challenge of our time. Public health professionals must convey the human implications of climate change and educating populations regarding climate change as a threat to the health and wellbeing of people globally. Effective communication to engage individuals, communities, and populations is critical to debate as we focus on the most urgent public health problem of our time.<br><br>Objective: Public health professionals are aware of the deleterious health consequences related to climate change; however, key segments of the population are not. This paper addressed key concepts related to climate change communication.<br><br>Methods: Databases were searched including PubMed, CINAHL, and Scopus from 2015 to 2020 to obtain the most recent relevant literature using search terms that included climate change, climate communication, climate action, and climate change engagement.<br><br>Findings: Climate change communication as viewed through the lens of Six Americas-a national survey that categorized people regarding their beliefs about climate change from those who are Dismissive, Doubtful, Disengaged, Cautious, Concerned, or Alarmed is a valid perspective for engaging populations in climate communication and climate action.<br><br>Conclusions: Using the framework developed by the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, we suggest that adopting this framework from a US perspective to a global perspective and surveying across countries and context is imperative to advance global understanding of the impact of climate change on health.},
}
@article {pmid32477395,
year = {2020},
author = {Frioni, T and Bertoloni, G and Squeri, C and Garavani, A and Ronney, L and Poni, S and Gatti, M},
title = {Biodiversity of Local Vitis vinifera L. Germplasm: A Powerful Tool Toward Adaptation to Global Warming and Desired Grape Composition.},
journal = {Frontiers in plant science},
volume = {11},
number = {},
pages = {608},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00608},
pmid = {32477395},
issn = {1664-462X},
abstract = {Global warming is endangering maintenance of optimal grape composition in white varietals aimed at sparkling wine making due to difficulties to maintain adequate acidity and fresh aromas. These troubles are being faced by the main white varietal of the Colli Piacentini district, named Ortrugo. Its vegetative and reproductive behavior was compared over 3 years with that of other minor autochthonous white varietals. Criteria set for adequate grape composition under sparkling vinification (total soluble solids at 20-21°Brix) and titratable acidity (TA) ≥ 6.5 g/L combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the measured variables allowed a thinnning down of the initial group of 17 to 7 varietals including Ortrugo, Bucalò, Barbesino, Lecco, Melara, Santa Maria and Molinelli. PCA isolated Ortrugo's behavior for inadequacy to maintain sufficient TA at harvest mostly due to extremely low malic acid concentration. However, time trend analyses of accumulation and degradation patterns of tartaric and malic acids disclosed that, in Ortrugo, the most limiting factors were more intense post-veraison tartaric acid dilution and a lower malic acid pool at veraison as compared to any other varietal. Conversely, Molinelli and Barbesino proved to be ideal material for sparkling wine purposes, as they associated to desirable agronomic features a strong ability to retain high TA with a well-balanced tartrate-to-malate ratio. Our study emphasizes that often neglected or superficially evaluated germplasm genetic resources might hide strong potential for adapting to challenges imposed by climate change in that representing an excellent tool for adaptation strategies.},
}
@article {pmid32474785,
year = {2020},
author = {Ahmad, D and Afzal, M},
title = {Climate change adaptation impact on cash crop productivity and income in Punjab province of Pakistan.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09368-x},
pmid = {32474785},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {Assessing the current farm-level efforts of climate change adaptation is essential to distinguish their usefulness and implying policy level advance measures for future. The present study investigated cotton farmers' climate change adaptation and its impact on increasing cotton productivity and net cotton income in Punjab province of Pakistan. A pretested and well-structured questionnaire was used for data collection of 480 cotton farmers from three major cotton-producing divisions of cotton-wheat zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Logistic regression analysis approach was used in this study to find out the factors of adaptation and propensity score matching method employed to identify connecting adaptation impact on cotton productivity and cotton income. Empirical estimates of this study indicated as owing to some external and internal constraint farmers were limited focused on adaptation while conscious about adverse effects of climate change. Usage of required and recommended types of fertilizer, variation in planting dates, and changing varieties of crop were main adaptation strategies implemented by cotton farmers. Cotton farmers' adaptation decision was significantly influenced by some major factors as weather forecasting, market information, easy access to agricultural extension services, farming experience, and education of cotton farmer. Farm-level increase in cotton productivity and net cotton crop income was direct while overall increases in national output and improving rural area farmer well-being were indirect and significant outcomes of implementing climate change adaptation of cotton farmers. Cotton farmers were using various combinations of adaptation strategies and achieving more benefits regarding their crop productivity and net returns. Findings of the study suggest need for larger investment in farm-level extension services, farmers' schooling, and develop climate change institutional setup for enhancing farmers' adaptation capability to increasing cotton productivity, improving well-being of farming community, and securing agriculture from future climatic uncertainties. Future policies must deal with farm-level limitations of advanced adaptation measures like making available information and sustaining sponsoring soil conservation practices, launching climate smart varieties and advanced adaptation measures based on various agro-ecological zones.},
}
@article {pmid32474308,
year = {2020},
author = {Yang, L and Liu, C and Bi, P and Vardoulakis, S and Huang, C},
title = {Local actions to health risks of heatwaves and dengue fever under climate change: Strategies and barriers among primary healthcare professionals in southern China.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {187},
number = {},
pages = {109688},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109688},
pmid = {32474308},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and extreme weather poses significant threats to community health, which need to be addressed by local health workforce. This study investigated the perceptions of primary healthcare professionals in Southern China on individual and institutional strategies for actions on health impacts of climate change and the related barriers.<br><br>METHODS: A mixed methodological approach was adopted, involving a cross-sectional questionnaire survey of 733 primary healthcare professionals (including medical doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, allied health workers and managers) selected through a multistage cluster randomized sampling strategy, and in-depth interviews of 25 key informants in Guangdong Province, China. The questionnaire survey investigated the perceptions of respondents on the health impacts of climate change and the individual and institutional actions that need to be taken in response to climate change. Multivariate logistic regression models were established to determine sociodemographic factors associated with the perceptions. The interviews tapped into coping strategies and perceived barriers in primary health care to adapt to tackle challenges of climate change. Contents analyses were performed to extract important themes.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The majority (64%) of respondents agreed that climate change is happening, but only 53.6% believed in its human causes. Heat waves and infectious diseases were highly recognized as health problems associated with climate change. There was a strong consensus on the need to strengthen individual and institutional capacities in response to health impacts of climate change. The respondents believed that it is important to educate the public, take active efforts to control infectious vectors, and pay increased attention to the health care of vulnerable populations. The lack of funding and limited local workforce capacity is a major barrier for taking actions. Climate change should be integrated into primary health care development through sustainable governmental funding and resource support.},
}
@article {pmid32470658,
year = {2020},
author = {Ahmed, M},
title = {Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {734},
number = {},
pages = {139397},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397},
pmid = {32470658},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.},
}
@article {pmid32468376,
year = {2020},
author = {Ahmad, M and Raza, MY},
title = {Role of public-private partnerships investment in energy and technological innovations in driving climate change: evidence from Brazil.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09307-w},
pmid = {32468376},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {This study aims to examine the impact of public-private partnerships (PPP) investment in energy, technological innovations (TI), economic growth (EG), exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on CO2 emissions in Brazil over the period from 1984 to 2018. In doing so, we employ the Ng-Perron unit root test to examine the stationarity and autoregressive lag distributed (ARDL) model for cointegration between CO2 emissions and its determinants. The outcomes are as follows: first, in the long run, the PPP investment in energy deteriorates the environmental quality by increasing CO2 emissions, while TI has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. It is also found that the exports and FDI degrade the environmental quality and the relationship between EG and CO2 emissions is inverted U-Shaped, presence of the EKC hypothesis. Second, in the short run, PPP investment in the energy sector is negatively influencing, while TI has a positive association with carbon emissions. The empirical findings provide new insights for policymakers to regulate PPP investment in the energy sector for the improvement of environmental quality in Brazil. Graphical abstract.},
}
@article {pmid32468367,
year = {2020},
author = {Shehzad, K and Xiaoxing, L and Sarfraz, M and Zulfiqar, M},
title = {Signifying the imperative nexus between climate change and information and communication technology development: a case from Pakistan.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09128-x},
pmid = {32468367},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {71673043//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; },
abstract = {The globe has faced technological affluence that enormously revolutionized the lives of humankind. Today, the manufacturing process of the energy sector, production sector, agriculture sector, and service sector is exclusively or partially based on ICT tools. The key intention of this investigation is to find out the impacts of the utilization of ICT on CO2 emission. However, this investigation also evaluates the influence of investment in ICT and the trade of ICT tools on CO2 emission. Further, the estimation examined the subsistence of environment Kuznets curve (EKC) theory, for the nation of Pakistan. The investigation employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and found that the utilization of ICT has a negative impact on CO2 emission. Moreover, the long-run results revealed that the import of ICT equipment is more beneficial for the environment quality of Pakistan. However, ICT apparatus manufactured in Pakistan might produce electronic waste due to non-utilization of green technology. The study reported bidirectional causality between ICT and CO2 emission. These results point towards that the emergence of ICT in industries and daily life possesses a significant and positive role in climate change in Pakistan. Also, this study corroborates the veracity of EKC in Pakistan.},
}
@article {pmid32464708,
year = {2020},
author = {Boulton, CA and Ritchie, PDL and Lenton, TM},
title = {Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15144},
pmid = {32464708},
issn = {1365-2486},
support = {NE/P007880/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; RPG-2018-046//Leverhulme Trust/ ; },
abstract = {Past abrupt 'regime shifts' have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large-scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high-latitude regions. However, there is very little high-resolution modelling of smaller-scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate-driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high-resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO2 combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non-linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non-linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374-1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%-1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.},
}
@article {pmid32464389,
year = {2020},
author = {Ahmed, M},
title = {Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {734},
number = {},
pages = {139397},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397},
pmid = {32464389},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.},
}
@article {pmid32463845,
year = {2020},
author = {Elston, DM},
title = {Climate change and expansion of tick geography.},
journal = {Cutis},
volume = {105},
number = {4},
pages = {161-162},
pmid = {32463845},
issn = {2326-6929},
}
@article {pmid32458307,
year = {2020},
author = {Sardá, LG and Higarashi, MM and Nicoloso, RS and Falkoski, C and Ribeiro, SMS and Silveira, CAP and Soares, HM},
title = {Effects of dicyandiamide and Mg/P on the global warming potential of swine slurry and sawdust cocomposting.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09244-8},
pmid = {32458307},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {02.12.08.004//Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (BR)/Fundação Parque Tecnológico Itaipú (BR)/ ; 401196/2016-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico/ ; },
abstract = {Composting is an emerging strategy for swine slurry treatment; nonetheless, significant greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions may occur during this process. We carried out two separate assays with increasing doses of dicyandiamide (DCD; up to 1.1% w/w) as a nitrification inhibitor and solutions of MgCl2 and H3PO4 (Mg/P; up to 0.09/0.06 mol kg-1) to promote struvite crystallization in order to assess their efficiencies as additives to decrease GHG emission during swine slurry cocomposting with sawdust (1:1v/v). We monitored the nitrous oxide (N2O-N), methane (CH4-C), and carbon dioxide (CO2-C) emissions and the ammonia (NH4+-N) and nitrate/nitrite (NOx-N) concentrations in compost reactors (35 L) during the first 4-5 weeks of composting. DCD had no effect on CH4-C and CO2-C emissions but decreased N2O-N losses by up to 56% compared with control. However, DCD inactivation was favored by thermophilic conditions and N2O-N emissions increased to same levels of control after 13 days. Mg/P was effective to decrease N2O-N losses only at the highest dose, which also sustained higher [NH4+-N] in the compost by the end of the assessment. Nonetheless, the use of 0.09/0.06 mol kg-1 of Mg/P also decreased CH4-C and CO2-C emissions compared with lower doses of Mg/P and unamended treatments. Overall, DCD and Mg/P amendments decreased the global warming potential (GWP) of swine slurry composting by up to 46 and 28%, respectively. The Mg/P application may be also interesting to increase the compost quality by increasing its NH4+-N availability. Graphical abstract.},
}
@article {pmid32457782,
year = {2020},
author = {Calleja-Cabrera, J and Boter, M and Oñate-Sánchez, L and Pernas, M},
title = {Root Growth Adaptation to Climate Change in Crops.},
journal = {Frontiers in plant science},
volume = {11},
number = {},
pages = {544},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00544},
pmid = {32457782},
issn = {1664-462X},
abstract = {Climate change is threatening crop productivity worldwide and new solutions to adapt crops to these environmental changes are urgently needed. Elevated temperatures driven by climate change affect developmental and physiological plant processes that, ultimately, impact on crop yield and quality. Plant roots are responsible for water and nutrients uptake, but changes in soil temperatures alters this process limiting crop growth. With the predicted variable climatic forecast, the development of an efficient root system better adapted to changing soil and environmental conditions is crucial for enhancing crop productivity. Root traits associated with improved adaptation to rising temperatures are increasingly being analyzed to obtain more suitable crop varieties. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge about the effect of increasing temperatures on root growth and their impact on crop yield. First, we will describe the main alterations in root architecture that different crops undergo in response to warmer soils. Then, we will outline the main coordinated physiological and metabolic changes taking place in roots and aerial parts that modulate the global response of the plant to increased temperatures. We will discuss on some of the main regulatory mechanisms controlling root adaptation to warmer soils, including the activation of heat and oxidative pathways to prevent damage of root cells and disruption of root growth; the interplay between hormonal regulatory pathways and the global changes on gene expression and protein homeostasis. We will also consider that in the field, increasing temperatures are usually associated with other abiotic and biotic stresses such as drought, salinity, nutrient deficiencies, and pathogen infections. We will present recent advances on how the root system is able to integrate and respond to complex and different stimuli in order to adapt to an increasingly changing environment. Finally, we will discuss the new prospects and challenges in this field as well as the more promising pathways for future research.},
}
@article {pmid32457557,
year = {2020},
author = {García-Del-Amo, D and Mortyn, PG and Reyes-García, V},
title = {Including Indigenous and local knowledge in climate research. An assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers.},
journal = {Climatic change},
volume = {160},
number = {1},
pages = {67-88},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02628-x},
pmid = {32457557},
issn = {0165-0009},
abstract = {Researchers have documented that observations of climate change impacts reported by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities coincide with scientific measurements of such impacts. However, insights from Indigenous and Local Knowledge are not yet completely included in international climate change research and policy fora. In this article, we compare observations of climate change impacts detected by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities from around the world and collected through a literature review (n=198 case studies), with climate scientists' opinions on the relevance of such information for climate change research. Scientists' opinions were collected through a web survey among climate change researchers from universities and research centres in Spain (n=191). In the survey, we asked about the need to collect local level data regarding 68 different groups of indicators of climate change impacts to improve the current knowledge, and about the feasibility of using Indigenous and local knowledge in climate change studies. Results show consensus on the need to continue collecting local level data from all groups of indicators to get a better understanding of climate change impacts, particularly on impacts on the biological system. However, while scientists of our study considered that Indigenous and local knowledge could mostly contribute to detect climate change impacts on the biological and socioeconomic systems, the literature review shows that information on impacts on these systems is rarely collected; researchers instead have mostly documented the impacts on the climatic and physical systems reported by Indigenous and local knowledge.},
}
@article {pmid32457461,
year = {2020},
author = {Palmer, T},
title = {Short-term tests validate long-term estimates of climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-01484-5},
pmid = {32457461},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32457414,
year = {2020},
author = {Lembo, V and Lucarini, V and Ragone, F},
title = {Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {8668},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2},
pmid = {32457414},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic variables. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity, and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases due to changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the North Atlantic.},
}
@article {pmid32457137,
year = {2020},
author = {Rushing, CS and Royle, JA and Ziolkowski, DJ and Pardieck, KL},
title = {Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2000299117},
pmid = {32457137},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.},
}
@article {pmid32454547,
year = {2020},
author = {Treptow, TM},
title = {[Impact of Corona Crisis on European Climate Change Policy].},
journal = {Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg, Germany : 1949)},
volume = {100},
number = {5},
pages = {364-366},
doi = {10.1007/s10273-020-2656-9},
pmid = {32454547},
issn = {0043-6275},
abstract = {The actual Corona crisis has a negative impact on the economic situation of the affected economies. This has direct consequences for the EU-wide trading of greenhouse gas emission allowances, which is an important building block of European climate change policy. In contrast, although there is an expected short-term decrease in the volume of greenhouse gas emissions due to the emerging economic recession, we should also expect lower prices of emission allowances in the mid to long term, which will make current production technologies more attractive. One important goal of European climate change policy - changing existing manufacturing technologies to less greenhouse gas emitting alternatives - will become even more difficult.},
}
@article {pmid32451968,
year = {2020},
author = {Ginbo, T and Di Corato, L and Hoffmann, R},
title = {Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation: A methodological review of real-options studies.},
journal = {Ambio},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s13280-020-01342-8},
pmid = {32451968},
issn = {1654-7209},
abstract = {Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.},
}
@article {pmid32449267,
year = {2020},
author = {Venäläinen, A and Lehtonen, I and Laapas, M and Ruosteenoja, K and Tikkanen, OP and Viiri, H and Ikonen, VP and Peltola, H},
title = {Climate change induces multiple risks to boreal forests and forestry in Finland: a literature review.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15183},
pmid = {32449267},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Climate change induces multiple abiotic and biotic risks to forests and forestry. Risks in different spatial and temporal scales must be considered to ensure preconditions for sustainable multifunctional management of forests for different ecosystem services. For this purpose, the present review article summarizes the most recent findings on major abiotic and biotic risks to boreal forests in Finland under the current and changing climate, with the focus on windstorms, heavy snow loading, drought and forest fires, and major insect pests and pathogens of trees. In general, the forest growth is projected to increase mainly in northern Finland. In the south, the growing conditions may become suboptimal, particularly for Norway spruce. Although the wind climate does not change remarkably, wind damage risk will increase especially in the south, because of the shortening of the soil frost period. The risk of snow damage is anticipated to increase in the north and decrease in the south. Increasing drought in summer will boost the risk of large-scale forest fires. Also, the warmer climate increases the risk of bark beetle outbreaks and the wood decay by Heterobasidion root rot in coniferous forests. The probability of detrimental cascading events, such as those caused by a large-scale wind damage followed by a widespread bark beetle outbreak, will increase remarkably in the future. Therefore, the simultaneous consideration of the biotic and abiotic risks is essential.},
}
@article {pmid32447805,
year = {2020},
author = {Patruno, C and Nisticò, SP and Fabbrocini, G and Napolitano, M},
title = {Is climate change the next pandemic for dermatology? Lessons from COVID-19.},
journal = {Dermatologic therapy},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/dth.13682},
pmid = {32447805},
issn = {1529-8019},
}
@article {pmid32446069,
year = {2020},
author = {López-Ballesteros, A and Senent-Aparicio, J and Martínez, C and Pérez-Sánchez, J},
title = {Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece).},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {733},
number = {},
pages = {139299},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139299},
pmid = {32446069},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change is a worldwide reality with significant effects on hydrological processes. It has already produce alterations in streamflow regime and is expected to continue in the future. To counteract the climate change impact, a better understanding of its effects is necessary. Hydrological models in combination with Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) suppose an up-to-date approach to analyze in detail the impacts of climate change on rivers. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers (IAHRIS) software were successfully applied in Aracthos River basin, an agricultural watershed located in the north-western area of Greece. Statistical indices showed an acceptable performance of the SWAT model in both calibration (R2 = 0.74, NSE = 0.54, PBIAS = 17.06%) and validation (R2 = 0.64, NSE = 0.36, PBIAS = 12.31%) periods on a daily basis. To assess the future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in Aracthos River basin, five Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) were selected and analyzed under two different emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for a long-term period (2070-2099). Results indicate that precipitation and flow is expected to be reduced and maximum and minimum temperature to be increased, compared to the historical period (1970-1999). IHA, obtained from IAHRIS software, revealed that flow regime can undergo a severe alteration, mainly on droughts that are expected to be more significant and longer. All these future hydrologic alterations could have negative consequences on the Aracthos River and its surroundings. The increase of droughts duration in combination with the reduction of flows and the alteration of seasonality can affect the resilience of riverine species and it can produce the loss of hydraulic and environmental diversity. Therefore, this study provides a useful tool for decision makers to develop strategies against the impact of climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32445137,
year = {2020},
author = {Abbas, S},
title = {Climate change and cotton production: an empirical investigation of Pakistan.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09222-0},
pmid = {32445137},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {This study investigates the relationship between climate change, the area under cultivation, fertilizer consumption, and cotton production in Pakistan from 1980 to 2018. The existence and nature of the short-term and long-term relationships are explored by using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model bounds testing approach. The estimated result of the ARDL bounds testing approach has shown the presence of cointegration between dependent and explanatory variables. The long-term estimates have revealed that the increasing average temperature has a positive insignificant effect, which implies that rising temperature is not increasing cotton yield in Pakistan. The findings of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption have revealed significant positive effects in both the long run and short run. This study urges Pakistan to reduce the pace of climate changes and increase water conservation by planting forests and constructing dams across major rivers along with the adoption of environmentally friendly production techniques and inputs.},
}
@article {pmid32444801,
year = {2020},
author = {Theodoridis, S and Fordham, DA and Brown, SC and Li, S and Rahbek, C and Nogues-Bravo, D},
title = {Evolutionary history and past climate change shape the distribution of genetic diversity in terrestrial mammals.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {2557},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16449-5},
pmid = {32444801},
issn = {2041-1723},
support = {DNRF96//Danmarks Grundforskningsfond (Danish National Research Foundation)/ ; },
abstract = {Knowledge of global patterns of biodiversity, ranging from intraspecific genetic diversity (GD) to taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, is essential for identifying and conserving the processes that shape the distribution of life. Yet, global patterns of GD and its drivers remain elusive. Here we assess existing biodiversity theories to explain and predict the global distribution of GD in terrestrial mammal assemblages. We find a strong positive covariation between GD and interspecific diversity, with evolutionary time, reflected in phylogenetic diversity, being the best predictor of GD. Moreover, we reveal the negative effect of past rapid climate change and the positive effect of inter-annual precipitation variability in shaping GD. Our models, explaining almost half of the variation in GD globally, uncover the importance of deep evolutionary history and past climate stability in accumulating and maintaining intraspecific diversity, and constitute a crucial step towards reducing the Wallacean shortfall for an important dimension of biodiversity.},
}
@article {pmid32444051,
year = {2020},
author = {Kemper, KJ and Etzel, RA},
title = {Addressing climate change: Academic pediatricians' personal and professional actions.},
journal = {Complementary therapies in medicine},
volume = {50},
number = {},
pages = {102386},
doi = {10.1016/j.ctim.2020.102386},
pmid = {32444051},
issn = {1873-6963},
}
@article {pmid32443221,
year = {2020},
author = {McDonnell, TC and Reinds, GJ and Wamelink, GWW and Goedhart, PW and Posch, M and Sullivan, TJ and Clark, CM},
title = {Threshold effects of air pollution and climate change on understory plant communities at forested sites in the eastern United States.},
journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)},
volume = {262},
number = {},
pages = {114351},
doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114351},
pmid = {32443221},
issn = {1873-6424},
abstract = {Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates.},
}
@article {pmid32442491,
year = {2020},
author = {Armitage, R and Nellums, LB},
title = {Water, climate change, and COVID-19: prioritising those in water-stressed settings.},
journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health},
volume = {4},
number = {5},
pages = {e175},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30084-X},
pmid = {32442491},
issn = {2542-5196},
}
@article {pmid32442490,
year = {2020},
author = {Herrero, M and Thornton, P},
title = {What can COVID-19 teach us about responding to climate change?.},
journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health},
volume = {4},
number = {5},
pages = {e174},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30085-1},
pmid = {32442490},
issn = {2542-5196},
}
@article {pmid32442176,
year = {2020},
author = {Mausio, K and Miura, T and Lincoln, NK},
title = {Cultivation potential projections of breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis) under climate change scenarios using an empirically validated suitability model calibrated in Hawai'i.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {5},
pages = {e0228552},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0228552},
pmid = {32442176},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Humanity faces significant challenges to agriculture and human nutrition, and changes in climate are predicted to make such challenges greater in the future. Neglected and underutilized crops may play a role in mitigating and addressing such challenges. Breadfruit is a long-lived tree crop that is a nutritious, carbohydrate-rich staple, which is a priority crop in this regard. A fuzzy-set modeling approach was applied, refined, and validated for breadfruit to determine its current and future potential productivity. Hawai'i was used as a model system, with over 1,200 naturalized trees utilized to calibrate a habitat suitability model and 56 producer sites used to validate the model. The parameters were then applied globally on 17 global climate models at the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 global climate projections for 2070. Overall, breadfruit suitability increases in area and in quality, with larger increases occurring in the RCP 8.5 projection. Current producing regions largely remain unchanged in both projections, indicating relative stability of production potential in current growing regions. Breadfruit, and other tropical indigenous food crops present strong opportunities for cultivation and food security risk management strategies moving forward.},
}
@article {pmid32438186,
year = {2020},
author = {Liu, H and Huang, B and Yang, C},
title = {Assessing the coordination between economic growth and urban climate change in China from 2000 to 2015.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {732},
number = {},
pages = {139283},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139283},
pmid = {32438186},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The balance between economic growth and environmental protection has been a critical concern for sustainable urban development. However, among the multiple research efforts exploring the coordination between the two aspects, the widespread urban climate change has rarely been considered. This study encompasses urban climate change into the cross-system coupling analysis framework to assess its coordination with economic growth using the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model. The two aspects are respectively represented using indicators of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Specifically, China is selected as case study, and a total of 259 cities from the 2000-2015 period are analyzed. The spatio-temporal patterns of CCD are investigated through time series clustering to uncover its performance under diversified economic and climatic contexts. The regional inequality and spatial agglomeration effects are also examined. Results reveal significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity of CCD. Geographically, CCD varies from uncoordinated to high-level coordination. Wealthier cities in the eastern coastal region are significantly better coordinated than their inland counterparts. Temporally, the uptrend of CCD is not significant for most cities due to the relatively insufficient emphasis on urban heat island (UHI) mitigation in previous efforts. Evident spatial inequality and agglomeration patterns are also observed with slight downtrends. The spatio-temporal patterns of CCD revealed in this study indicate great necessity for the central government to develop policies suiting cities' special characteristics and contexts, and more efforts should be targeted on reducing regional imbalance. Hence, a nation-city-community policy skeleton is last outlined to enhance the pursuit of a more climate-friendly urban environment under rapid economic development. Overall, this study advances the understanding of economy-urban climate interactions and facilitates the future pursuit of better sustainable cities. The proposed workflow can be utilized for other countries with diversified urbanization processes and potentially used for comparison among different countries.},
}
@article {pmid32435692,
year = {2020},
author = {Jin, S},
title = {COVID-19, Climate Change, and Renewable Energy Research: We Are All in This Together, and the Time to Act Is Now.},
journal = {ACS energy letters},
volume = {5},
number = {5},
pages = {1709-1711},
doi = {10.1021/acsenergylett.0c00910},
pmid = {32435692},
issn = {2380-8195},
}
@article {pmid32435603,
year = {2020},
author = {Sarkar, S and Maity, R},
title = {Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in the context of climate change.},
journal = {MethodsX},
volume = {7},
number = {},
pages = {100904},
doi = {10.1016/j.mex.2020.100904},
pmid = {32435603},
issn = {2215-0161},
abstract = {Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the maximum depth of precipitation at a location for a given duration that is meteorologically possible. It is a crucial information for any water infrastructure, such as dams, culverts, drainage network in order to ensure a desirable probability of exceedance. This paper proposes a technique for estimation of PMP, suitable in the context of climate change. Out of several available methods, Hershfield method is considered as a convenient and effective statistical method of PMP estimation, provided sufficiently long precipitation records are available. The most crucial step in Hershfield method is the precise estimation of frequency factor (K) and its enveloping technique. There is no universally accepted enveloping technique of K. Different values of K and different types of enveloping techniques have been suggested and used by various investigators across the world. We introduce an upgradation in the existing enveloping technique in order to bring clarity and universality in the estimation, particularly in the context of climate change. This updated enveloping technique and the conventional Hershfield method-both are applied to develop PMP maps for the entire Indian mainland over the past century (1901-2000). Comparison between the proposed and existing methods of PMP estimation reveals a better estimation of spatio-temporal variation of PMP, avoiding unusual overestimation of PMP in the low rainfall extreme regions of India by existing Hershfield method. In brief, the contributions of this paper are as follows:•An upgradation of the existing Hershfield Method [1] by introducing a new enveloping technique for the frequency factor (K).•The single envelope curve in the existing Hershfield method is modified as a composite curve, consisting of a straight-line portion and an exponentially decaying portion.•Development of PMP maps over India using both Hershfield method and the proposed technique.},
}
@article {pmid32435111,
year = {2020},
author = {Vellingiri, S and Dutta, P and Singh, S and Sathish, LM and Pingle, S and Brahmbhatt, B},
title = {Combating Climate Change-induced Heat Stress: Assessing Cool Roofs and Its Impact on the Indoor Ambient Temperature of the Households in the Urban Slums of Ahmedabad.},
journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine},
volume = {24},
number = {1},
pages = {25-29},
doi = {10.4103/ijoem.IJOEM_120_19},
pmid = {32435111},
issn = {0973-2284},
abstract = {Background: The rising global temperature and frequent heatwaves are the adverse effects of climate change. The causalities and ill impacts of the heat stress were higher among the slum dwellers because of the vulnerable household structures, which were made by heat-trapping materials like tin sheets, cement sheet (asbestos), plastic, and tarpaulin. The houses are not only dwellings but also a source of livelihood for many slum dwellers as they are involved in home-based work. The increase in the temperature of more than 40°C severely affects health and increases energy expenditures.<br><br>Objective: The present study conducted to identify the efficient cool roof technologies that reduce indoor temperature of the households and improve the heat resilience of dwellings located in the urban slums of Ahmedabad.<br><br>Methodology: The performances of cool roof interventions were compared with the nonintervention - roof types, namely, tin, asbestos/cement sheet, and concrete. Relative humidity/temperature data loggers (Lascar EL-USB-2-LCD, Sweden) were used to measure the indoor ambient temperature and humidity. The questionnaire-based survey also has been conducted to understand the socioeconomic status and the perceptions related to roofing and health.<br><br>Results: The results revealed that selected cool roof technologies including Thermocol insulation, solar reflective white paint on the outer surface of the roof, and Modroof are effectively reducing the indoor temperature as compared to the nonintervention roofing.<br><br>Conclusion: Cool roof technologies have a wider scope as number of informal settlements are increasing across the cities in India and other developing countries. The governments may not able to provide proper housing to all these inhabitants due to various reasons including the land tenure of the habitats. Validated cool roof technologies can be promoted as these structures are not requires legal sanctions and easily dismantled and installed in multiple places and safeguards the investment of urban poor.},
}
@article {pmid32433979,
year = {2020},
author = {Skole, K and Mahpour, N},
title = {Additional Thoughts on &quot;How Can Individuals and the GI Community Reduce Climate Change&quot;.},
journal = {Gastroenterology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2020.02.069},
pmid = {32433979},
issn = {1528-0012},
}
@article {pmid32432423,
year = {2020},
author = {Delorme, H and Gonzalez Holguera, J and Niwa, N and Backes, C and Senn, N},
title = {[Co-benefits of health promotion on global warming - The example of food and mobility].},
journal = {Revue medicale suisse},
volume = {16},
number = {694},
pages = {1049-1055},
pmid = {32432423},
issn = {1660-9379},
abstract = {Global warming is considered by most scientists as one of the greatest public health threats of the 21st century. Some individual behaviours and consumption habits related to the food and mobility sectors are responsible for a high amount of CO2 emissions, the main greenhouse gas. Thus, some messages promoted by health professionals will have an impact on the fight against the epidemic of lifestyle-related chronic diseases but will also have an environmental co-benefit. With a population increasingly aware of current environmental issues, environmental considerations could be an additional motivating factor for patients when promoting a healthier diet or physical activity.},
}
@article {pmid32432122,
year = {2020},
author = {Ferrari, M and Benvenuti, L and Rossi, L and De Santis, A and Sette, S and Martone, D and Piccinelli, R and Le Donne, C and Leclercq, C and Turrini, A},
title = {Could Dietary Goals and Climate Change Mitigation Be Achieved Through Optimized Diet? The Experience of Modeling the National Food Consumption Data in Italy.},
journal = {Frontiers in nutrition},
volume = {7},
number = {},
pages = {48},
doi = {10.3389/fnut.2020.00048},
pmid = {32432122},
issn = {2296-861X},
abstract = {Objective: The aim of this study is to define a healthy and sustainable diet model with low GHGE, fulfilling dietary requirements, and considering current Italian food consumption patterns. Design: A duly designed database was developed, linking food nutritional composition and GHGE based on 921 food items consumed in Italy according to the last national food consumption survey (INRAN-SCAI 2005-2006). Linear programming was used to develop new diet plans separately for males and females, aged 18-60 years (n = 2,098 subjects), in order to minimize GHGE. The program is based on dietary goals and acceptability constraints as well as on 13 nutrient requirement constraints aiming to reach a healthy and acceptable diet for the Italian population. Results: Diet optimization resulted in a nutritionally adequate pattern minimizing GHGE values (4.0 vs. 1.9 kg CO2e/day for males and 3.2 vs. 1.6 kg CO2e/day for females). In both sexes, the nutrient intake of the optimized diet was at the established lower bound for cholesterol and calcium and at the established upper bound for free sugar and fiber. In males, intake of zinc was at the established lower bound whereas iron was at the established upper bound. Consumption of red meat and fruit and vegetables was at the established lower and upper bound, respectively, in both males and females. Despite the decrease in meat consumption, especially red meat, in the optimized diet with respect to the observed diet, levels of iron intake in females increased by 10% (10.3 vs. 11.3 mg/day) but remained below the adequate intake established in Italian national DRIs. Conclusions: An attainable healthy dietary pattern was developed that would lead to the reduction of GHGE by 48% for males and by 50% for females with respect to current food consumption in the Italian adult population. Health-promoting dietary patterns can substantially contribute to achieve related Sustainable Development Goals.},
}
@article {pmid32430321,
year = {2020},
author = {Overpeck, JT and Udall, B},
title = {Climate change and the aridification of North America.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2006323117},
pmid = {32430321},
issn = {1091-6490},
}
@article {pmid32429607,
year = {2019},
author = {Pinkerton, KE and Felt, E and Riden, HE},
title = {Editorial: Extreme Weather Resulting from Global Warming is an Emerging Threat to Farmworker Health and Safety.},
journal = {Journal of agricultural safety and health},
volume = {25},
number = {4},
pages = {189-190},
doi = {10.13031/jash.13555},
pmid = {32429607},
issn = {1074-7583},
abstract = {A warming climate has been linked to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heat and cold waves, extreme precipitation, and wildfires. This increase in extreme weather results in increased risks to the health and safety of farmworkers.},
}
@article {pmid32429527,
year = {2020},
author = {Joy, A and Dunshea, FR and Leury, BJ and Clarke, IJ and DiGiacomo, K and Chauhan, SS},
title = {Resilience of Small Ruminants to Climate Change and Increased Environmental Temperature: A Review.},
journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI},
volume = {10},
number = {5},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ani10050867},
pmid = {32429527},
issn = {2076-2615},
support = {The University of Melbourne ECR Grant 2019//Dookie Campus, University of Melbourne/ ; },
abstract = {Climate change is a major global threat to the sustainability of livestock systems. Climatic factors such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, direct and indirect solar radiation and wind speed influence feed and water availability, fodder quality and disease occurrence, with production being most efficient in optimal environmental conditions. Among these climatic variables, ambient temperature fluctuations have the most impact on livestock production and animal welfare. Continuous exposure of the animals to heat stress compromises growth, milk and meat production and reproduction. The capacity of an animal to mitigate effects of increased environmental temperature, without progressing into stress response, differs within and between species. Comparatively, small ruminants are better adapted to hot environments than large ruminants and have better ability to survive, produce and reproduce in harsh climatic regions. Nevertheless, the physiological and behavioral changes in response to hot environments affect small ruminant production. It has been found that tropical breeds are more adaptive to hot climates than high-producing temperate breeds. The growing body of knowledge on the negative impact of heat stress on small ruminant production and welfare will assist in the development of suitable strategies to mitigate heat stress. Selection of thermotolerant breeds, through identification of genetic traits for adaption to extreme environmental conditions (high temperature, feed scarcity, water scarcity), is a viable strategy to combat climate change and minimize the impact on small ruminant production and welfare. This review highlights such adaption within and among different breeds of small ruminants challenged by heat stress.},
}
@article {pmid32427222,
year = {2020},
author = {Booth, L and Fleming, K and Abad, J and Schueller, LA and Leone, M and Scolobig, A and Baills, A},
title = {Simulating synergies between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction stakeholders to improve management of transboundary disasters in Europe.},
journal = {International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {101668},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101668},
pmid = {32427222},
issn = {2212-4209},
abstract = {Natural hazards and climate-related disasters disregard political borders, where additional barriers can complicate mitigation, response and recovery efforts within and between the sectors of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The ESPREssO Project (Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union) aims to improve management of transboundary disasters by encouraging closer synergies between the CCA and DRR communities. Using targeted stakeholder interviews, questionnaires, Think Tank discussions and purpose-built serious games, ESPREssO draws on both CCA and DRR stakeholder experiences and informed perspectives in order to identify current gaps. Set within a fictitious border zone, ESPREssO's RAMSETE II serious game challenges CCA and DRR stakeholders in making coordinated decisions before, during and after a simulated disaster, in protection of population and critical infrastructure. Results highlight the essential role of local governance mechanisms as the sharp end of the policy wedge, with current examples of proactivity that require to be championed and supported at national level in order to thrive. These good practice examples reflect the fact that transboundary settings, despite their challenges, act as fertile ground for mutual growth, offering opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to find innovative ways to cooperate and unite in developing synergies and strengthening their mutual efforts towards resilience. Stakeholders emphasise a need to invest more resources in informal cooperation and call on policy makers to recognise that each border zone raises its own unique set of complex challenges that requires flexibility and special consideration by transboundary authorities in management of disasters.},
}
@article {pmid32424389,
year = {2020},
author = {Eftaiha, AF and Qaroush, AK and Alsayyed, AW and Al-Qaisi, F and Alsoubani, F and Assaf, KI},
title = {The eternal battle to combat global warming: (thio)urea as a CO2 wet scrubbing agent.},
journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1039/d0cp00629g},
pmid = {32424389},
issn = {1463-9084},
abstract = {(Thio)Urea scaffolds are best known for their importance as intermediates in organic synthesis. In this work, a mechanistic study of the reaction between urea (U), (2-hydroxyethyl)urea (U-EtOH) and thiourea (tU)/NaH in DMSO with CO2 was carried out. While both U/tU reacted with CO2 via a 1 : 2 mechanism through the formation of the keto (thio)carbamide-carboxylate adducts (k-U/tU-CO2- Na+), U-EtOH gave mixed CO2-adducts composed of organic carbonate and carbamide-carboxylate moieties (Na+-CO2-U-Et-OCO2- Na+). Moreover, we recorded for the first time, a new type of bond, namely sodium carbamimidothiocarbonate (e-tU-SCO2- Na+), upon bubbling CO2 in the DMSO solution of tU due to the persistence of the enol form (e-tU) and the better nucleophilicity of sulfur over nitrogen focal points. The reaction mechanisms were proven by 1D and 2D nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and ex situ attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopies. The stability of these bonds was studied following the changes in 1H-NMR as a function of temperature, which indicated the reversibility of these reactions. Furthermore, the proposed mechanisms were explored theoretically via density functional theory (DFT) calculations by analyzing the energetics of the anticipated products.},
}
@article {pmid32423079,
year = {2020},
author = {Tuno, N and Phong, TV and Takagi, M},
title = {Climate Change May Restrict the Predation Efficiency of Mesocyclops aspericornis (Copepoda: Cyclopidae) on Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae.},
journal = {Insects},
volume = {11},
number = {5},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/insects11050307},
pmid = {32423079},
issn = {2075-4450},
support = {No. 14256003, No. 19256002//Grands-in-aid for Scientific Research/ ; },
abstract = {(1) Dengue is the most spread mosquito-borne viral disease in the world, and vector control is the only available means to suppress its prevalence, since no effective treatment or vaccine has been developed. A biological control program using copepods that feed on mosquito larvae has been practiced in Vietnam and some other countries, but the application of copepods was not always successful. (2) To understand why the utility of copepods varies, we evaluated the predation efficiency of a copepod species (Mesocyclops aspericornis) on a vector species (Aedes aegypti) by laboratory experiments under different temperatures, nutrition and prey-density conditions. (3) We found that copepod predation reduced intraspecific competition among Aedes larvae and then shortened the survivor's aquatic life and increased their pupal weight. In addition, the predatory efficiency of copepods was reduced at high temperatures. Furthermore, performance of copepod offspring fell when the density of mosquito larvae was high, probably because mosquito larvae had adverse effects on copepod growth through competition for food resources. (4) These results suggest that the increase in mosquitoes will not be suppressed solely by the application of copepods if the density of mosquito larvae is high or ambient temperature is high. We need to consider additional control methods in order to maintain the efficiency of copepods to suppress mosquito increase.},
}
@article {pmid32420634,
year = {2020},
author = {Nogueira, LM and Yabroff, KR and Bernstein, A},
title = {Climate change and cancer.},
journal = {CA: a cancer journal for clinicians},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3322/caac.21610},
pmid = {32420634},
issn = {1542-4863},
}
@article {pmid32419148,
year = {2020},
author = {Ottenburghs, J and Bosse, M},
title = {Digest: Climate change and agricultural intensification influence the strength and direction of natural selection in tree swallows.},
journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/evo.14003},
pmid = {32419148},
issn = {1558-5646},
abstract = {How does environmental heterogeneity affect natural selection on tree swallow nestlings? Houle et al. (2020) show that more precipitation and higher temperatures result in stronger selection on body mass and wing length and that agricultural intensity can affect the direction of selection. These findings raise the question of how genetic diversity changes under strong selection pressures, which will be especially important under ongoing agriculture intensification and climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid32417982,
year = {2020},
author = {Jinga, P and Palagi, J},
title = {Dry and wet miombo woodlands of south-central Africa respond differently to climate change.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {6},
pages = {372},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08342-x},
pmid = {32417982},
issn = {1573-2959},
support = {Not applicable//Bindura University of Science Education/ ; },
abstract = {It is important to understand how species distributions will shift under climate change. While much focus has been on species tracking temperature changes in the northern hemisphere, changing precipitation patterns in tropical regions have received less attention. The aim of the study was to estimate the current distribution of wet and dry miombo woodlands of sub-Saharan Africa and to predict their distributions under different climate change scenarios. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to estimate the distributions and for projections. Occurrence records of dominant tree species in each woodland were used for modeling, together with altitude, soil characteristics, and climate variables as the environmental variables. Modeling was done under all four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and three general circulation models. Three dominant tree species were used in models of dry miombo while seven were used for wet miombo. Models estimated dry miombo to cover almost the entire known distribution of miombo woodlands while wet miombo were estimated to predominate in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Future climate scenarios predict a drier climate in sub-Saharan Africa, and as a result, the range of dry miombo will expand. Dry miombo were predicted to expand by up to 17.3% in 2050 and 22.7% in 2070. In contrast, wet miombo were predicted to contract by up to - 28.6% in 2050 and - 41.6% in 2070. A warming climate is conducive for the proliferation of dry miombo tree species but unfavorable for wet miombo tree species.},
}
@article {pmid32417970,
year = {2020},
author = {Zeydalinejad, N and Nassery, HR and Shakiba, A and Alijani, F},
title = {Prediction of the karstic spring flow rates under climate change by climatic variables based on the artificial neural network: a case study of Iran.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {6},
pages = {375},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08332-z},
pmid = {32417970},
issn = {1573-2959},
abstract = {Few studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for a region with no pumping well. Indeed, the uncertainty of pumping wells may undesirably influence the results. Therefore, a region without any pumping well was selected to assess the impact of climate change on the karstic spring flow rates. NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was used to extract the climatic variables for the present (1961-1990) and future (2021-2050) time periods by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, in Lali region, southwest Iran. Although this dataset has been already verified, its output was evaluated for Lali region. Then, the impact of climate change on the discharge of Bibitarkhoun karstic spring was examined by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In this regard, if considering the daily data, ANN is not trained satisfactorily, because of the spring's lag time response to the precipitation; if monthly time step is considered, the data would not be adequate. Therefore, the average of some previous days was considered to calculate the variables. The average precipitation is 344, 329, and 324 mm/year and the average temperature is 14.18, 15.98, and 16.3 °C both for the present, future time period under RCP4.5 and future time period under RCP8.5, respectively. The network selected demonstrated no climate change impact on the average of spring discharge. However, the discharge increased by about + 8% in spring and summer and decreased by about - 7% in autumn and winter in the future time period.},
}
@article {pmid32417478,
year = {2020},
author = {Araya, A and Prasad, PVV and Zambreski, Z and Gowda, PH and Ciampitti, IA and Assefa, Y and Girma, A},
title = {Spatial analysis of the impact of climate change factors and adaptation strategies on productivity of wheat in Ethiopia.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {731},
number = {},
pages = {139094},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139094},
pmid = {32417478},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Wheat production is expected to be challenged by future climate change. However, it is unclear how wheat grown in diverse agroecologies will respond to climate change and adaptation management strategies. A geospatial simulation study was conducted to understand the impacts of climate change and adaptation management strategies on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in Ethiopia. Simulation results showed that the average long-term baseline (1980-2005) wheat yield ranged from 1593 to 3356 kg/ha. This wheat yield range is within the national average (2100-2700 kg/ha) for this decade. In regions with cooler temperatures (<21 °C), mid-century temperatures and elevated CO2, along with increased N fertilizer slightly improved attainable yield levels above 3000 kg/ha. Whereas, in regions with heat and drought conditions wheat yield declined regardless the increase of N or CO2 levels. Wheat yield increased at a diminishing rate with increase in N fertilizer rate. However, N fertilizer did not increase yields under low rainfall conditions. Two to five irrigation per season contributed to yield improvement for low rainfall locations, while yield did not substantially improve for locations receiving adequate seasonal rainfall. Therefore, based on this study, improved N fertilizer application in combination with increased CO2 could improve wheat yield under future climate in most wheat producing regions (with adequate rainfall) of Ethiopia. Our results provide valuable information regarding impacts of climate change factors and adaptation strategies for producers, researchers, extension professionals and policy makers.},
}
@article {pmid32417470,
year = {2020},
author = {Cao, B and Bai, C and Xue, Y and Yang, J and Gao, P and Liang, H and Zhang, L and Che, L and Wang, J and Xu, J and Duan, C and Mao, M and Li, G},
title = {Wetlands rise and fall: Six endangered wetland species showed different patterns of habitat shift under future climate change.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {731},
number = {},
pages = {138518},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138518},
pmid = {32417470},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Degradation and loss of species' suitable habitats in response to global warming are well documented, which are assumed to be affected by increasing temperature. Conversely, habitat increase of species is little reported and is often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. In this study, we first revealed the climate-change-driven habitat shifts of six endangered wetland plants - Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Carex doniana, Glyptostrobus pensilis, Leersia hexandra, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, and Pedicularis longiflora. The current and future potential habitats of the six species in China were predicted using a maximum entropy model based on thirty-year occurrence records and climate monitoring (from 1960 to 1990). Furthermore, we observed the change of real habitats of the six species based on eight-year field observations (from 2011 to 2019). We found that the six species exhibited three different patterns of habitat shifts including decrease, unstable, and increase. The analysis on the main decisive environmental factors showed that these patterns of habitat shifts are counter to what would be expected global warming but are mostly determined by precipitation-related environmental factors rather than temperature. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of combining multiple environmental factors including temperature and precipitation for understanding plant responses to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32416361,
year = {2020},
author = {Linares, C and Martinez, GS and Kendrovski, V and Diaz, J},
title = {A new integrative perspective on early warning systems for health in the context of climate change.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {187},
number = {},
pages = {109623},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109623},
pmid = {32416361},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {Climate change causes or aggravates a wide range of exposures with multiple impacts on health, both direct and indirect. Early warning systems have been established to act on the risks posed by these exposures, permitting the timely activation of action plans to minimize health effects. These plans are usually activated individually. Although they show good results from the point of view of minimizing health impacts, such as in the case of high temperature plans, they commonly fail to address the synergies across various climate-related or climate-aggravated exposures. Since several of those exposures tend to occur concurrently, failure to integrate them in prevention efforts could affect their effectiveness and reach. Thus, there is a need to carry out an integrative approach for the multiple effects that climate change has on population health. This article presents a proposal for how these plans should be articulated. The proposed integrated plan would consist of four phases. The first phase, based on early warning systems, would be the activation of different existing individual plans related to the health effects that can be caused by certain circumstances and when possible corrective measures would be implemented. The second phase would attempt to quantify the health impact foreseen by the event in terms of the different health indicators selected. The third phase would be to activate measures to minimize the impact on health, via population alerts and advisories, and additional social and health services, based on the provisions in phase two. Phase four would be related to epidemiological surveillance that permits evaluation of the effects of activating the plan. We believe that this integrative approach should be extended to all of the public health interventions related to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32415620,
year = {2020},
author = {Thapliyal, G and Vemanna, RS and Pawar, PM and Barthwal, S and Meena, RK and Pandey, S and Bhandari, MS},
title = {First record of off-season flowering in Populus deltoides from India: paradigm of climate change indicator.},
journal = {International journal of biometeorology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01915-y},
pmid = {32415620},
issn = {1432-1254},
abstract = {Populus deltoides is a fast-growing woody species possessing plethora of industrial applications. This species evolutionarily developed unisexual male and female catkin inflorescence on separate trees. Flowering usually occurs during early spring before the development of foliage, where buds appear near axils or at the extending shoots. In 2019, surveys were undertaken to study the flowering pattern of P. deltoides in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in northern India. Interestingly, an anomalous flowering behaviour (appearance of off-season male catkins during autumn, i.e. October) was observed in a plantation trial at Kapurthala, Punjab. The male catkins were 2.7-3.1 ± 0.07 cm long and 0.3-0.5 ± 0.03 cm wide, which is significant for flowering and liberation of pollen grains. Preliminary results suggested that climatic factors, such as episodes of high or low temperature and the precipitation variation forcing the tree species to behave differently. Unearthing the climate-driven off-season flowering in other tree species alluded the stimulation of phytohormones, such as gibberellic and salicylic acid concentrations influencing the flowering time, therefore, needs further investigation in case of P. deltoides. Overall, this work provides early clues of changing climatic scenario altering the flowering pattern of a tropical forestry tree species.},
}
@article {pmid32415221,
year = {2020},
author = {Schreiner-McGraw, AP and Vivoni, ER and Ajami, H and Sala, OE and Throop, HL and Peters, DPC},
title = {Woody Plant Encroachment has a Larger Impact than Climate Change on Dryland Water Budgets.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {8112},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-65094-x},
pmid = {32415221},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Woody plant encroachment (WPE) into grasslands is a global phenomenon that is associated with land degradation via xerification, which replaces grasses with shrubs and bare soil patches. It remains uncertain how the global processes of WPE and climate change may combine to impact water availability for ecosystems. Using a process-based model constrained by watershed observations, our results suggest that both xerification and climate change augment groundwater recharge by increasing channel transmission losses at the expense of plant available water. Conversion from grasslands to shrublands without creating additional bare soil, however, reduces transmission losses. Model simulations considering both WPE and climate change are used to assess their relative roles in a late 21st century condition. Results indicate that changes in focused channel recharge are determined primarily by the WPE pathway. As a result, WPE should be given consideration when assessing the vulnerability of groundwater aquifers to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32411511,
year = {2020},
author = {Cuena-Lombraña, A and Porceddu, M and Dettori, CA and Bacchetta, G},
title = {Predicting the consequences of global warming on Gentiana lutea germination at the edge of its distributional and ecological range.},
journal = {PeerJ},
volume = {8},
number = {},
pages = {e8894},
doi = {10.7717/peerj.8894},
pmid = {32411511},
issn = {2167-8359},
abstract = {Background: Temperature is the main environmental factor controlling seed germination; it determines both the percentage and the rate of germination. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean surface temperature could increase of approximately 2-4 °C by 2090-2099. As a consequence of global warming, the period of snow cover is decreasing on several mountain areas. Thermal time approach can be used to characterise the seed germination of plants and to evaluate the germination behaviour under the climate change scenarios. In this study, the effect of different cold stratification periods on seed dormancy release and germination of Gentiana lutea subsp. lutea, a taxon listed in Annex V of the Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), was evaluated. Furthermore, the thermal requirements and the consequences of the temperature rise for seed germination of this species were estimated. In addition, a conceptual representation of the thermal time approach is presented.<br><br>Methods: Seeds of G. lutea subsp. lutea were harvested from at least 50 randomly selected plants in two representative localities of the Gennargentu massif (Sardinia). Germination tests were carried out under laboratory conditions and the responses at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 °C were recorded. Different cold stratification pre-treatments at 1 ± 1 °C (i.e. 0, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days) were applied. Successively, the base temperature (Tb) and the number of thermal units (θ, °Cd) for germination were estimated. Additionally, this study examined the consequences of an increase in temperatures based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC) scenarios.<br><br>Results: The results indicated that from 0 to 30 days of cold stratification, the germination was null or very low. After 60 and 90 days of cold stratification the seed dormancy was removed; however, 25 and 30 °C negatively affected the germination capacity of non-dormant seeds. Seeds cold-stratified for 90 days showed a lower Tb than those stratified for 60 days. However, 60 and 90 days of cold stratification did not cause great variations in the thermal time units. Analysing the RPC scenarios, we detected that the number of days useful for dormancy release of seeds of G. lutea may be less than 30 days, a condition that does not permit an effective dormancy release.<br><br>Conclusions: We conclude that seeds of G. lutea need at least 60 days of cold stratification to remove dormancy and promote the germination. The thermal time model developed in this work allowed us to identify the thermal threshold requirements of seed germination of this species, increasing the knowledge of a plant threatened by global warming. Our results emphasise the need for further studies aiming at a better characterisation of germination efficiency, especially for species that require cold stratification. This would improve the knowledge on the germination mechanisms of adaptation to different future global warming conditions.},
}
@article {pmid32411508,
year = {2020},
author = {Egbebiyi, TS and Crespo, O and Lennard, C and Zaroug, M and Nikulin, G and Harris, I and Price, J and Forstenhäusler, N and Warren, R},
title = {Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa.},
journal = {PeerJ},
volume = {8},
number = {},
pages = {e8851},
doi = {10.7717/peerj.8851},
pmid = {32411508},
issn = {2167-8359},
abstract = {West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971-2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre's regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971-2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5-3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.},
}
@article {pmid32409761,
year = {2019},
author = {Morton, A},
title = {How Australia's election will decide its role in climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-01543-6},
pmid = {32409761},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32408439,
year = {2020},
author = {Costa, S and Coppola, F and Pretti, C and Intorre, L and Meucci, V and Soares, AMVM and Solé, M and Freitas, R},
title = {Biochemical and physiological responses of two clam species to Triclosan combined with climate change scenario.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {724},
number = {},
pages = {138143},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138143},
pmid = {32408439},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Ocean acidification and warming are among the man-induced factors that most likely impact aquatic wildlife worldwide. Besides effects caused by temperature rise and lowered pH conditions, chemicals of current use can also adversely affect aquatic organisms. Both climate change and emerging pollutants, including toxic impacts in marine invertebrates, have been investigated in recent years. However, less information is available on the combined effects of these physical and chemical stressors that, in nature, occur simultaneously. Thus, this study contrasts the effects caused by the antimicrobial agent and plastic additive, Triclosan (TCS) in the related clams Ruditapes philippinarum (invasive) and Ruditapes decussatus (native) and evaluates if the impacts are influenced by combined temperature and pH modifications. Organisms were acclimated for 30 days at two conditions (control: 17 °C; pH 8.1 and climate change scenario: 21 °C, pH 7.7) in the absence of the drug (experimental period I) followed by a 7 days exposure under the same water physical parameters but either in absence (unexposed) or presence of TCS at 1 μg/L (experimental period II). Biochemical responses covering metabolic, oxidative defences and damage-related biomarkers were contrasted in clams at the end of experimental period II. The overall picture showed a well-marked antioxidant activation and higher TCS bioaccumulation of the drug under the forecasted climate scenario despite a reduction on respiration rate and unaltered metabolism in the exposed clams. Since clams are highly consumed shellfish, the consequences for higher tissue bioaccumulation of anthropogenic chemicals to final consumers should be alerted not only at present conditions but more significantly under predicted climatic conditions for humans but also for other components of the marine trophic chain.},
}
@article {pmid32404663,
year = {2020},
author = {Ewbank, C and Stewart, B and Bruns, B and Deckelbaum, D and Gologorsky, R and Groen, R and Gupta, S and Harris, MJ and Godfrey, R and Leppäniemi, A and Malone, DL and Newton, C and Traynor, MD and Wong, EG and Kushner, AL},
title = {The Development of a Surgical Care and Climate Change Matrix: A Tool to Assist With Prioritization and Implementation Strategies.},
journal = {Annals of surgery},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1097/SLA.0000000000003980},
pmid = {32404663},
issn = {1528-1140},
}
@article {pmid32399720,
year = {2020},
author = {Bein, T and Karagiannidis, C and Gründling, M and Quintel, M},
title = {[New challenges for intensive care medicine due to climate change and global warming].},
journal = {Der Anaesthesist},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00101-020-00783-w},
pmid = {32399720},
issn = {1432-055X},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the last five decades a continuous increase in the average global temperature has been recorded. Furthermore, natural disasters (e.g. heat waves, severe storms, floods and large forest fires) are becoming more frequent. The impact of global warming and climate change on health involves an increase in respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and cognitive mental diseases. Furthermore, a change in the frequency and patterns of infectious diseases can also be observed in Europe.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: This article presents the most important studies that investigated diseases associated with the climate change, with special reference to those that represent a challenge for intensive care medicine.<br><br>RESULTS: Currently available epidemiological data and statistical extrapolations indicate that diseases resulting from the climate change (acute infection-related respiratory and intestinal diseases, exacerbation of pre-existing pulmonary lesions, heat-related dehydration, cerebral insults and myocardial infarction) are relevant for intensive care medicine. Particular emphasis is placed on a significant increase in acute kidney damage during heat waves. A previously unknown pattern of infectious diseases necessitates new knowledge and targeted management. In some studies, persisting mental impairments were registered during heat waves and natural disasters, e.g. posttraumatic stress disorder.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Intensive care medicine must be prepared for the challenges due to global warming and climate change. Slow but continuous changes (e.g. rise in temperature) as well as acute changes (e.g. heat waves and natural disasters) will induce an increased need for intensive medical care services (e.g. an increase in the need for renal replacement procedures). Intensive care physicians will need to be familiar with the diagnostics and management of diseases associated with the climate change. An initiative of the specialist societies involved would be welcomed.},
}
@article {pmid32399247,
year = {2020},
author = {Mousavi, A and Ardalan, A and Takian, A and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Naddafi, K and Bavani, AM},
title = {Climate change and health in Iran: a narrative review.},
journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering},
volume = {18},
number = {1},
pages = {367-378},
doi = {10.1007/s40201-020-00462-3},
pmid = {32399247},
issn = {2052-336X},
abstract = {Background: The consequences of climate change are highly impeding the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) anywhere, especially in low and middle-income countries. While climate change scales up, its health-related risks increase, which in turn leads to cause new challenges for public health. As a second largest country of the Eastern Mediterranean Region of World Health Organization, Iran is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.<br><br>Purpose: This study seeks the notion of health risks and challenges of climate change in Iran and provide potential evidence-based remedies to prevent and diminish such destructive effects.<br><br>Methods: A comprehensive literature in various computerized databases was conducted, and numerous published original research and review articles about climate change status and evidences of adverse health consequences of climate change in Iran were reviewed.<br><br>Results: The evidence suggests that the expected health challenges related to climate change in Iran are: rising temperatures; frequent extreme weather events; reduction of air quality; food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases; mental health and well-being consequences; and the increasing trend of natural disasters and deaths associated with climatological hazards.<br><br>Conclusions: By considering the growing burden of diseases associated with climate variability in Iran as well as the interdisciplinary nature of climate change and health issues, an integrated, multi-sectoral, and comprehensive approach for identification, prioritization, and implementation of adaptation options is required by Ministry of Health and Medical Education as a custodian of public health in order to enhance the resiliency and adaption against adverse health effects of climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32398194,
year = {2020},
author = {Denholm, J},
title = {Seasonality, climate change and tuberculosis: new data and old lessons.},
journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease},
volume = {24},
number = {5},
pages = {469},
doi = {10.5588/ijtld.20.0088},
pmid = {32398194},
issn = {1815-7920},
}
@article {pmid32393851,
year = {2020},
author = {Grünig, M and Mazzi, D and Calanca, P and Karger, DN and Pellissier, L},
title = {Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change.},
journal = {Communications biology},
volume = {3},
number = {1},
pages = {233},
doi = {10.1038/s42003-020-0962-9},
pmid = {32393851},
issn = {2399-3642},
abstract = {Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a metaweb approach including all interaction links between 126 crops and forest tree species and 89 black-listed insect pest species, we show that the metawebs shift toward increased numbers of links and overlap of suitable area under climate change. Decomposing the metaweb across regions shows large saturation in southern Europe, while many novel interactions are expected for northern Europe. In light of the rising consumer awareness about human health and environmental impacts of food and wood production, the challenge will be to effectively exploit new opportunities to create diverse local agriculture and forestry while controlling pest species and reducing risks from pesticide use.},
}
@article {pmid32393774,
year = {2020},
author = {Alexander, M},
title = {Pandemics, climate change, and disability related to SCI.},
journal = {Spinal cord series and cases},
volume = {6},
number = {1},
pages = {36},
doi = {10.1038/s41394-020-0285-6},
pmid = {32393774},
issn = {2058-6124},
}
@article {pmid32392673,
year = {2020},
author = {Lorenzo, MN and Alvarez, I},
title = {Climate change patterns in precipitation over Spain using CORDEX projections for 2021-2050.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {723},
number = {},
pages = {138024},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138024},
pmid = {32392673},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {This work presents an analysis of the climate change scenarios in some extreme precipitation indices over Spain using simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. Change projections of precipitation are evaluated for the near future (2021-2050) relatively to a reference past climate (1971-2000). Projections of annual precipitation show a general decrease in almost the whole region except over the central area where positive changes are detected due to a significant increase in winter. For consecutive wet days, an annual decrease is also projected over the country attributable to a significant decrease mainly observed in spring and to a lesser extent in winter. On the other hand, consecutive dry days are projected to be higher overall as a result of significant increases in spring, summer and autumn. Positive changes are also projected for the maximum daily precipitation during winter and autumn.},
}
@article {pmid32392150,
year = {2020},
author = {Adedoyin, F and Ozturk, I and Abubakar, I and Kumeka, T and Folarin, O and Bekun, FV},
title = {Structural breaks in CO2 emissions: Are they caused by climate change protests or other factors?.},
journal = {Journal of environmental management},
volume = {266},
number = {},
pages = {110628},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110628},
pmid = {32392150},
issn = {1095-8630},
abstract = {In recent times, there has been increase in climate change protest across the globe. However, whether decrease in emissions is connected with climate change protest or not is yet to be documented in the literature. Consequently, the aim of this study is to fill this gap by examining ex-post detection of how climate change protests and its interconnectedness with CO2 emissions. Using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test, we estimate the number of breaks as well as the date of such structural breaks in CO2 emissions series for 41 countries. Our aim is to match the date of the climate change protests to those of the structural breaks. We observe that climate change protests are fairly consistent with the dates of breaks in Europe and Asia, but not in BRICS economies or US, Canada and other countries. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the energy industry related to the modelling and correct allocation of positive shocks in CO2 emissions to climate change protests.},
}
@article {pmid32390204,
year = {2020},
author = {O'Kane, G},
title = {Climate change and rural health.},
journal = {The Australian journal of rural health},
volume = {28},
number = {2},
pages = {186},
doi = {10.1111/ajr.12614},
pmid = {32390204},
issn = {1440-1584},
}
@article {pmid32390197,
year = {2020},
author = {Jones, M and Mills, D and Gray, R},
title = {Expecting the unexpected? Improving rural health in the era of bushfires, novel coronavirus and climate change.},
journal = {The Australian journal of rural health},
volume = {28},
number = {2},
pages = {107-109},
doi = {10.1111/ajr.12623},
pmid = {32390197},
issn = {1440-1584},
}
@article {pmid32388556,
year = {2020},
author = {Dominguez-Rodriguez, A and Rodríguez, S and Hernández-Vaquero, D},
title = {Air pollution is intimately linked to global climate change: change in Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2019.},
journal = {European heart journal},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa295},
pmid = {32388556},
issn = {1522-9645},
}
@article {pmid32387776,
year = {2020},
author = {Santos, C and Imteaz, MA and Ghisi, E and Matos, C},
title = {The effect of climate change on domestic Rainwater Harvesting.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {729},
number = {},
pages = {138967},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138967},
pmid = {32387776},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {One of the main strategies that are being applied to improve the efficiency of water consumption in buildings is the use of non-potable water for pavement washing, toilet flushing, irrigation, and others. According to several guidelines, the design and assessment of a Rainwater Harvesting System (RWHS) should be made using recent official records of precipitation. However, there is not an indication whether historical or future projections should be used, leaving space for the designer to choose. This article presents the study of RWHS in southern Europe, namely in Portugal, considering two case studies (a dwelling in Oporto and an apartment in Vila Real). The main goal was to explore the impacts that climate change will have on these systems and, for that purpose, a daily simulation using future rainfall data was performed for both cases considering two scenarios: RCP 4.5 which is more optimistic, and RCP 8.5 which is more pessimistic. The RWHS in Oporto showed a better performance in the future decades, comparing with simulations based on recent decades, for both scenarios. However, the savings will not have a significant variation (less than 5 €/year). In the future, this system will provide around 47 (±2.4) m3 of rainwater per year to the selected non-potable purposes, leading to savings of around 66 (±3.3) €/year. Vila Real case study also revealed a slight improvement of the system's efficiency in the future decades but the results for rainwater collected and used are so similar to the recent ones that it can be concluded that the performance will be sustained. This system will provide around 50 (±2.5) m3 of rainwater per year to the selected non-potable purposes, leading to savings of around 200 (±10.2) €/year. It can be concluded that there will be no significant changes in RWHS performance in the future, in the studied areas.},
}
@article {pmid32387769,
year = {2020},
author = {Pilecco, GE and Chantigny, MH and Weiler, DA and Aita, C and Thivierge, MN and Schmatz, R and Chaves, B and Giacomini, SJ},
title = {Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential from biofuel cropping systems fertilized with mineral and organic nitrogen sources.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {729},
number = {},
pages = {138767},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138767},
pmid = {32387769},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Non-legume bioenergy crops can be fertilized with animal manures instead of mineral fertilizers, but the simultaneous application of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) with manures can increase nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. On the other hand, manure could increase soil organic C stocks and partly offset greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP) of crop systems. We performed a two-year study in a biofuel cropping system with sunflower and canola to examine the effects of manure fertilization on grain yields and N use efficiency of crops, and on GWP and GHG intensity (GHGI) in no-till soils under subtropical conditions. The GWP and GHGI were calculated from measured methane (CH4) and N2O emissions and soil organic C stock change, and from estimated carbon dioxide emissions associated with agricultural inputs and farm operations. The following treatments were tested: (i) mineral fertilizer (MF); (ii) poultry manure (PM); (iii) pig deep-litter (PDL); and (iv) no-N control. The application rate of each treatment was adjusted to provide 60 kg available N ha-1 to crops. Grain yield and N accumulated by sunflower and canola were greater in fertilized treatments than in the control, and did not differ among N sources. However, crop N use efficiency was on average 50% lower with manures than MF. CH4 emissions were not affected by N sources, but N2O emissions increased as follows: control (1.37) < MF (2.04) < PDL (4.12) < PM (4.95 kg N ha-1). On the other hand, soil organic C stocks increased more rapidly with manures than MF, resulting in significantly lower GWP and GHGI with manures than MF after two years. These results indicate that animal manures can replace MF as the main source of N to non-legume oil crops and reduce net GHG emissions in biofuel cropping systems under subtropical conditions.},
}
@article {pmid32386506,
year = {2020},
author = {Ren, Z and Zagortchev, L and Ma, J and Yan, M and Li, J},
title = {Predicting the potential distribution of the parasitic Cuscuta chinensis under global warming.},
journal = {BMC ecology},
volume = {20},
number = {1},
pages = {28},
doi = {10.1186/s12898-020-00295-6},
pmid = {32386506},
issn = {1472-6785},
support = {15-2//Inter-governmental S&amp;T Cooperation Proposal between Bulgaria and China/ ; DNTS China 01/5//National Science Fund of the Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science/ ; 2019//Ten Thousand Talent Program of Zhejiang Province/ ; },
abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cuscuta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant without leaves or roots, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of the parasitic plant C. chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential global distribution of C. chinensis, based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter.<br><br>RESULTS: The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37 °C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25,000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000 mm and from 2500 to 3500 mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 2000 mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20° N to 50° N. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960-1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 increased by 0.0875 million km2; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960-1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 decreased by 0.0759 million km2. The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and high suitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km2.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management and control of C. chinensis.},
}
@article {pmid32386209,
year = {2020},
author = {Aydogan, EL and Budich, O and Hardt, M and Choi, YH and Jansen-Willems, AB and Moser, G and Müller, C and Kämpfer, P and Glaeser, SP},
title = {Global warming shifts the composition of the abundant bacterial phyllosphere microbiota as indicated by a cultivation dependent and independent study of the grassland phyllosphere of a long-term warming field-experiment.},
journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/femsec/fiaa087},
pmid = {32386209},
issn = {1574-6941},
abstract = {The leaf colonizing bacterial microbiota was studied in a long-term warming experiment of a permanent grassland, which had been continuously exposed to increased surface temperate (+2°C) for more than six years. Two abundant plant species, Arrhenatherum elatius and Galium album, were studied. Surface warming reduced stomata opening and changed leaf metabolite profiles. Leaf surface colonization and the concentration of leaf-associated bacterial cells were not affected. However, bacterial 16S rRNA gene amplicon Illumina sequencing showed significant temperature effects on the plant species-specific phyllosphere microbiota. Warming partially affected the concentrations of cultured bacteria and had a significant effect on the composition of most abundant cultured plant species-specific bacteria. The abundance of Sphingomonas spp. was significantly reduced. Sphingomonas spp. isolates from warmed plots represented different phylotypes, had different physiological traits, and were better adapted to higher temperatures. Among Methylobacterium spp., a novel phylotype with a specific mxaF-type was cultured from plants of warmed plots while the most abundant phylotype cultured from control plots was strongly reduced. This study clearly showed a correlation of long-term surface warming with changes of the plant physiology and the development of a physiologically and genetically adapted phyllosphere microbiota.},
}
@article {pmid32385855,
year = {2020},
author = {Coates, SJ and Andersen, LK and Boos, MD},
title = {Balancing public health and private wealth: lessons on climate inaction from the COVID-19 pandemic - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.},
journal = {International journal of dermatology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/ijd.14917},
pmid = {32385855},
issn = {1365-4632},
support = {D43TW009343/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; /CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; /NH/NIH HHS/United States ; //University of California Global Health Institute (UCGHI)/ ; },
}
@article {pmid32385312,
year = {2020},
author = {Leite, C and Oliveira, V and Miranda, I and Pereira, H},
title = {Cork oak and climate change: Disentangling drought effects on cork chemical composition.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {7800},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64650-9},
pmid = {32385312},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Climate change induces in the Mediterranean region more frequent and extreme events, namely, heat waves and droughts, disturbing forest species and affecting their productivity and product quality. The cork oak (Quercus suber) is present along the western Mediterranean basin and its outer bark (cork) is sustainably collected and used for several products, mainly wine bottle stoppers. Since most cork properties arise from its chemical composition, this research studies the effect of drought on cork chemical composition (suberin, lignin, polysaccharides and extractives) and on polysaccharide and suberin monomeric composition. Three sets of cork samples, from the same site, were examined: in one set the cork grew without drought; in another two drought events occurred during cork growth and in the third one drought event happened. The results show that, in general, drought does not affect the proportion of the main components of cork, the monomers of suberin or of polysaccharides, with few exceptions e.g. drought increased ethanol extractives and xylose in polysaccharides and decreased arabinose in polysaccharides. The variability associated to the tree is much more relevant than the effect of drought conditions and affects all the parameters analyzed. Therefore, our research suggests that the tree genetic information, or its expression, plays a much more important role on the chemical composition of cork than the drought conditions occurring during cork growth. In practical terms, the potential increased occurrence of droughts arising from climatic changes will not compromise the performance of cork as a sealant for wine bottles.},
}
@article {pmid32384901,
year = {2020},
author = {Sweileh, WM},
title = {Bibliometric analysis of peer-reviewed literature on climate change and human health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.},
journal = {Globalization and health},
volume = {16},
number = {1},
pages = {44},
doi = {10.1186/s12992-020-00576-1},
pmid = {32384901},
issn = {1744-8603},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Assessing research activity is important for planning future protective and adaptive policies. The objective of the current study was to assess research activity on climate change and health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.<br><br>METHOD: A bibliometric method was applied using SciVerse Scopus. Documents on climate change and human health were called &quot;health-related literature&quot; while documents on climate change and infectious diseases were called &quot;infection-related literature&quot;. The study period was from 1980 to 2019.<br><br>RESULTS: The search query found 4247 documents in the health-related literature and 1207 in the infection-related literature. The growth of publications showed a steep increase after 2007. There were four research themes in the health-related literature: (1) climate change and infectious diseases; (2) climate change, public health and food security; (3) heat waves, mortality, and non-communicable diseases; and (4) climate change, air pollution, allergy, and respiratory health. The most frequently encountered pathogens/infectious diseases in the infection-related literature were malaria and dengue. Documents in infection-related literature had a higher h-index than documents in the health-related literature. The top-cited documents in the health-related literature focused on food security, public health, and infectious diseases while those in infection-related literature focused on water-, vector-, and mosquito-borne diseases. The European region had the highest contribution in health-related literature (n = 1626; 38.3%) and infection-related literature (n = 497; 41.2%). The USA led with 1235 (29.1%) documents in health-related literature and 365 (30.2%) documents in infection-related literature. The Australian National University ranked first in the health-related literature while the London School of Hygiene &amp; Tropical Medicine ranked first in the infection-related literature. International research collaboration was inadequate. Documents published in the Environmental Health Perspectives journal received the highest citations per document. A total of 1416 (33.3%) documents in the health-related literature were funded while 419 (34.7%) documents in the infection-related literature were funded.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Research on climate change and human health is on the rise with research on infection-related issues making a good share. International research collaboration should be funded and supported. Future research needs to focus on the impact of climate change on psychosocial, mental, innovations, policies, and preparedness of health systems.},
}
@article {pmid32384124,
year = {2020},
author = {Prevéy, JS and Parker, LE and Harrington, CA},
title = {Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {5},
pages = {e0232537},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0232537},
pmid = {32384124},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species' current ranges by the end of the 21st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21st century, and 36 days by the late-21st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.},
}
@article {pmid32382016,
year = {2020},
author = {Byers, EA and Coxon, G and Freer, J and Hall, JW},
title = {Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {2239},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2},
pmid = {32382016},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain's power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29-66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.},
}
@article {pmid32380633,
year = {2019},
author = {Shi, X and Sun, L and Chen, X and Wang, L},
title = {Farmers' perceived efficacy of adaptive behaviors to climate change in the Loess Plateau, China.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {697},
number = {},
pages = {134217},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134217},
pmid = {32380633},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The impact of climate change is very significant to farmers who depend on natural resources for livelihood. It is essential to have a better understanding of farmers' assessments of the efficacy of adaptive behaviors for formulating appropriate adaptation policies and improving farmers' ability to adapt to climate change. Based on survey data from interviews with farmers in the Loess Plateau, the features of farmers' perceived adaptation efficacy are analyzed. Three multiple linear regression models are used to analyze farmers' perceived efficacy of adaptive behaviors and identify factors influencing those assessments in terms of farmers' demographical and social factors, their perception of climate change, their perception of climate change effects and the average temperature and precipitation from 2005 to 2015 in this area. The results are as follows: (1) Generally, the adaptive behaviors with high perceived adaptation efficacy were used by most respondents. Measures with relatively low perceived adaptation efficacy were not commonly adopted, such as migration, buying insurance, changing planting and harvesting time. (2) The factors affect the perceived efficacy of adaption behavior in decreasing order are as follows: perception of climate change, the average precipitation, and demographical and social factors. Perception of local natural disasters, perception of planting and harvesting time, crop yield and diseases and insect pests caused by climate change were found to affect farmers' adaptation assessments. The key demographical and social factors influencing farmers' assessments were non-farming income, farming income, farmland quantity, gender, the frequency of watching TV and going to the market.},
}
@article {pmid32374789,
year = {2020},
author = {Shi, W and Jiang, H and Mao, X and Xu, H},
title = {Pollen record of climate change during the last deglaciation from the eastern Tibetan Plateau.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {5},
pages = {e0232803},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0232803},
pmid = {32374789},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {The eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a climatically sensitive area affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). A new pollen record from a lacustrine sediment in Mao County shows that the study area was covered mainly by shrubs and herbs during the last deglaciation, indicating open and sparse forest grasslands. Hydrophilous herbs were mainly dominated by Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Myriophyllum, Polygonum and Typha, and they gradually increased from 18.7 to 16.8 ka, suggesting a transition to a more humid climate. This corresponds to climate cooling over the same period. From 16.8 to 14.6 ka, hydrophilous herbs continued to increase, coincident with a general ameliorating trend indicated by δ18O records from East Asia. Between 14.6 and 14.0 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs reached peak in the sequence, corresponding to relatively high δ18O values during this period. From ~14.0 to 12.9 ka, the abundance of hydrophilous herbs decreased significantly. Over the same period, the Greenland ice core shows a decrease in δ18O and low-latitude cave stalagmites in China record an increase in δ18O. This implies that longitudinal temperature gradients increased and drove the southward retreat of the ISM, which in turn drove a continuous decrease in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area. From 12.9 to 11.6 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs decreased to the lowest (8.3%) in the whole sequence, indicating a cold and dry climate in the study area. A positive shift in δ18O records during 11.6-10.6 ka was matched by a significant increase in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area, indicating a warm and humid climate trending. Hence, the ISM has had a significant impact on the climate of the eastern TP since the onset of deglaciation around ~16.8 ka.},
}
@article {pmid32374105,
year = {2020},
author = {Pasini, A},
title = {[Detection and attribution of the recent global warming: state of the art].},
journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione},
volume = {44},
number = {1},
pages = {9-10},
doi = {10.19191/EP20.1.P009.008},
pmid = {32374105},
issn = {1120-9763},
}
@article {pmid32373748,
year = {2020},
author = {Marie, M and Yirga, F and Haile, M and Tquabo, F},
title = {Farmers' choices and factors affecting adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: evidence from northwestern Ethiopia.},
journal = {Heliyon},
volume = {6},
number = {4},
pages = {e03867},
doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03867},
pmid = {32373748},
issn = {2405-8440},
abstract = {Climate change is a major environmental and socioeconomic challenge in Ethiopia in recent decades. The study site is one of the climate change prone areas affected by climate variability and extreme events. Therefore, a better understanding of area-specific and adaptation is crucial to develop and implement proper adaptation strategies that can alleviate the adverse effects of climate change. Therefore, this work was aimed to identify determinants of farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation strategies in Gondar Zuria District of northwestern Ethiopia. Primary data were collected through semi-structured questionnaires, observation, and interviews. Besides, the secondary data were also obtained from journal articles, reports, governmental offices, and the internet. The Multinomial and Binary logistic regression models with the help of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) (21th edition) were used to analyze the data. The multinomial logistic regression model was used to estimate the influence of the socioeconomic characteristics of sample households on the farmer's decision to choose climate change adaptation strategies. The result showed that age, gender, family size, farm income, and farm size had a significant influence on the farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies. The result also revealed that crop failure, severe soil erosion and shortages of water are major climate change-related problems than others. In order to alleviate these problems, farmers have implemented mixed farming, mixed cropping, early and late planting (changing sowing period), use of drought-resistant crop varieties, application of soil and water conservation techniques, shifting to non-farm income activities and use of irrigation. In contrast, access to climate information, total annual farm income, and market access variables are significant adoption determinants of climate change adaptation strategies by farmers' in the study site. Therefore, we recommend future adaptation-related plans should focus on improving climate change information access, improving market access and enhancing research on the use of rainwater harvesting technology.},
}
@article {pmid32372355,
year = {2020},
author = {Cheng, B and Li, H},
title = {Impact of climate change and human activities on economic values produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers in water shortage area of Northwest China.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08963-2},
pmid = {32372355},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {Grant No.51939009//National Natural Science Foundation of China (Key Program)/ ; },
abstract = {Climate change and human activities are affecting the ecological health of rivers and the economic value of its ecosystem services. Taking water quantity as the intermediate variable, we proposed a quantitative calculation method for the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. The framework mainly consists of three steps: firstly, we quantitatively determined the changes in the amount of water coming from rivers due to climate change and human activities; secondly, combining the theory of resource and environmental economics to calculate the economic value generated by ecological service functions of rivers; finally, we quantitatively identified and analyzed the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. Taking Baoji section of Weihe River (BSWR) as an example, we quantitatively analyzed and calculated the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: in recent 52 years, the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers decreased by 3.57 billion yuan due to the climate change and human activities; the total economic value has been reduced by an average of 68 million yuan per year. This useful work can not only reveal the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value of ecosystem services of rivers but also can provide an important basis for the reasonable management model of water resource of ecosystem of rivers watershed.},
}
@article {pmid32371277,
year = {2020},
author = {Grefalda, LB and Pulhin, JM and Tapia, MA and Anacio, DB and De Luna, CC and Sabino, LL and Garcia, JE and Peria, AS and Peras, RJJ and Gevaña, DT and Inoue, M},
title = {Building institutional resilience in the context of climate change in Aurora, Philippines.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {186},
number = {},
pages = {109584},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109584},
pmid = {32371277},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {The role of local government units (LGUs) in disaster resilience is crucial for a hazard-prone country such as the Philippines. Although the country has its own institutional framework on disaster risk reduction, a number of issues limit LGUs' potential to perform its role. This study focused on building institutional resilience of LGUs towards building climate risk resilience in Aurora, Philippines by engaging key actors in the formulation of Local Climate Change Action Plans (LCCAP). The study adopted the shared learning process from the Climate Resilience Framework (CRF) to strengthen partnership and implement capacity building activities, aimed at developing the Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) and LCCAP beyond compliance. An institutional capacity assessment was administered through a survey involving 87 members of the Technical Working Group (TWG) from eight municipalities and provincial government. Institutional capacity was measured using 70 indicators representing access rights and entitlements, information flows, decision-making processes, application of new knowledge, capacity to anticipate risk, capacity to respond, as well as capacity to recover and change. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Both Spearman Correlation and Cramer's V determined the interrelationship between socio-demographic variables and institutional characteristics. Results revealed that the LGUs performed better in risk response and management. A strong correlation between expertise and position vis-à-vis all resilient institution metrics was also observed, while gender is moderately correlated with all parameters except access rights and entitlements. Three key areas, not adequately articulated in current literature, need to be improved to enhance institutional resilience towards climate and disaster risks, namely: staffing and human resource; access to financial support from other sources; and development of knowledge management systems.},
}
@article {pmid32369490,
year = {2020},
author = {García-Gómez, JC and González, AR and Maestre, MJ and Espinosa, F},
title = {Detect coastal disturbances and climate change effects in coralligenous community through sentinel stations.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {5},
pages = {e0231641},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0231641},
pmid = {32369490},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {This study was implemented to assess the Sessile Bioindicators in Permanent Quadrats (SBPQ) underwater environmental alert method. The SBPQ is a non-invasive and low-cost protocol; it uses sessile target species (indicators) to detect environmental alterations (natural or anthropic) at either the local or global (i.e., climate change) scale and the intrusion of invasive species. The SBPQ focuses on the monitoring of preselected sessile and sensitive benthic species associated with rocky coralligenous habitats using permanent quadrats in underwater sentinel stations. The selected target species have been well documented as bioindicators that disappear in the absence of environmental stability. However, whether these species are good indicators of stability or, in contrast, suffer variations in long-term coverage has not been verified. The purpose of this study was to assess the part of the method based on the hypothesis that, over a long temporal series in a highly structured and biodiverse coralligenous assemblage, the cover of sensitive sessile species does not change over time if the environmental stability characterising the habitat is not altered. Over a ten-year period (2005-2014), the sublittoral sessile biota in the Straits of Gibraltar Natural Park on the southern Iberian Peninsula was monitored at a 28 m-deep underwater sentinel stations. Analyses of the coverages of target indicator species (i.e., Paramuricea clavata and Astroides calycularis) together with other accompanying sessile organisms based on the periodic superimposition of gridded images from horizontal and vertical rocky surfaces allowed us to assess the effectiveness of the method. We conclude that no alterations occurred during the study period; only minimal fluctuations in cover were detected, and the method is reliable for detecting biological changes in ecosystems found in other geographical areas containing the chosen indicator species at similar dominance levels.},
}
@article {pmid32368509,
year = {2020},
author = {Cradock-Henry, NA and Connolly, J and Blackett, P and Lawrence, J},
title = {Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications.},
journal = {MethodsX},
volume = {7},
number = {},
pages = {100893},
doi = {10.1016/j.mex.2020.100893},
pmid = {32368509},
issn = {2215-0161},
abstract = {New research is drawing attention to the potential for climate change to generate cascading impacts and implications across linked human-environment systems, requiring closer accounting of these interactions to anticipate the emergence of surprises and feedbacks. However, there is little practical guidance for those interested in characterising, identifying or assessing cascades, and few empirical examples. In this paper, we elaborate a systems-based methodology to identify and evaluate cascading climate change impacts and implications. We illustrate its application using the case of a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers, facing the legacy effects of damaging earthquakes and the prospect of future climate change. The results show the proposed approach and visualisation of cascades as causal diagrams provides a robust and flexible analytical framework. The use of systems thinking, visual aids, interactive discussion and expert elicitation generated valuable information about potential cascades, their interactions across domains of interest, and the implications for management. The process can provide a basis for further empirical application and advance methodological and conceptual development. Specifically, the systems methodology:•Identifies interdependencies and interconnections which may serve as transmission pathways for climate-related impacts;•Enhanced stakeholders' understanding of multiple causes and effects of climate change; and•Produced a useful visual aid for stakeholders to explore cascading impacts and implications, and opportunities for intervention.},
}
@article {pmid32367239,
year = {2020},
author = {Zhang, C and Jin, J and Kuang, F and Ning, J and Wan, X and Guan, T},
title = {Farmers' perceptions of climate change and adaptation behavior in Wushen Banner, China.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09048-w},
pmid = {32367239},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {41671170//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; },
abstract = {A better understanding of farmers' perceptions of and responses to climate change is important for decision-makers to design more effective adaptation policies. This study investigates farmers' perceptions of climate change, actual adaption responses at the farm level, and factors influencing farmers' decisions on climate change adaptation in Wushen Banner, China. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 220 farmers with a random sampling technique. We found that farmers were generally concerned about climate change. Most farmers have adopted adaption measures to address the adverse effects of climate change. Adjusting farming behavior and using financial means were the main adaptation measures used by local farmers. The results revealed that the implementation of adaptation measures was constrained by the lack of technology, shortage of money, and poor infrastructure. The binary logistic regression results showed that farmers' socioeconomic characteristics, such as education, farming experience, and gender, had significant impacts on farmers' decisions to choose adaptation strategies. The regression results also indicated that farmers who believed climate change would affect their health were more willing to choose financial instruments, and farmers who believed climate change would affect their agricultural productions were likely to diversify their livelihoods. The findings provide some critical insights based on local perceptions of climate change and enhance our understanding of cognitive beliefs attached to adaptive responses.},
}
@article {pmid32366920,
year = {2020},
author = {Louppe, V and Leroy, B and Herrel, A and Veron, G},
title = {The globally invasive small Indian mongoose Urva auropunctata is likely to spread with climate change.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {7461},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64502-6},
pmid = {32366920},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Invasive alien species represent one of the major factors of global loss of biodiversity and disruption of natural ecosystems. The small Indian mongoose, Urva auropunctata, is considered one of the wild carnivore species with the greatest negative impact on global biodiversity. Understanding of the factors underpinning the species' distribution and potential dispersion in a context of climate change thus appears crucial in the conservation of native ecosystems. Here we modelled the current and future climatically favourable areas for the small Indian mongoose using Ecological Niche Modelling based on data sets filtrated in environmental spaces. Projections from these models show extensive current favourable geographical areas, covering continental and insular regions within tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. Moreover, predictions for 2050 reveal that climate change is likely to expand current favourable areas north of the current favourable spaces, particularly in Eastern Europe. This climate-induced expansion is particularly worrisome given that the species is already spreading in the Balkan region. Our projections suggest that it is very likely that the small Indian mongoose will have an increasing influence on ecosystems and biodiversity in Europe by 2050.},
}
@article {pmid32362760,
year = {2009},
author = {Lee, DS and Fahey, DW and Forster, PM and Newton, PJ and Wit, RCN and Lim, LL and Owen, B and Sausen, R},
title = {Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century.},
journal = {Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)},
volume = {43},
number = {22},
pages = {3520-3537},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.024},
pmid = {32362760},
issn = {1352-2310},
abstract = {Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NO x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr-1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000-2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m-2 (23-87 mW m-2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005-78 mW m-2 (38-139 mW m-2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2-14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7-3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0-4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4-4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.},
}
@article {pmid32364720,
year = {2020},
author = {Bidleman, TF and Andersson, A and Haglund, P and Tysklind, M},
title = {Will climate change influence production and environmental pathways of halogenated natural products?.},
journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b07709},
pmid = {32364720},
issn = {1520-5851},
abstract = {Thousands of halogenated natural products (HNPs) pervade the terrestrial and marine environment. HNPs are generated by biotic and abiotic processes and range in complexity from low molecular mass natural halocarbons (nHCs, mostly halomethanes and haloethanes) to compounds of higher molecular mass which often contain oxygen and/or nitrogen atoms in addition to halogens (hHNPs). nHCs have a key role in regulating tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, while some hHNPs bioaccumulate and have toxic properties similar those of anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants (CEACs). Both chemical classes have common sources: biosynthesis by marine bacteria, phytoplankton, macroalgae and some invertebrate animals, and both may be similarly impacted by alteration of production and transport pathways in a changing climate. The nHCs scientific community is advanced in investigating sources, atmospheric and oceanic transport, and forecasting climate change impacts through modeling. By contrast, these activities are nascent or non-existent for hHNPs. Goals of this paper are to: 1. Review production, sources, distribution and transport pathways of nHCs and hHNPs through water and air, pointing out areas of commonality. 2. By analogy to nHCs, argue that climate change may alter these factors for hHNPs. 3. Suggest steps to improve linkage between nHCs and hHNPs science to better understand and predict climate change impacts.},
}
@article {pmid32364555,
year = {2020},
author = {Bernhard, GH and Neale, RE and Barnes, PW and Neale, PJ and Zepp, RG and Wilson, SR and Andrady, AL and Bais, AF and McKenzie, RL and Aucamp, PJ and Young, PJ and Liley, JB and Lucas, RM and Yazar, S and Rhodes, LE and Byrne, SN and Hollestein, LM and Olsen, CM and Young, AR and Robson, TM and Bornman, JF and Jansen, MAK and Robinson, SA and Ballaré, CL and Williamson, CE and Rose, KC and Banaszak, AT and Häder, DP and Hylander, S and Wängberg, SÅ and Austin, AT and Hou, WC and Paul, ND and Madronich, S and Sulzberger, B and Solomon, KR and Li, H and Schikowski, T and Longstreth, J and Pandey, KK and Heikkilä, AM and White, CC},
title = {Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019.},
journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1039/d0pp90011g},
pmid = {32364555},
issn = {1474-9092},
abstract = {This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595-828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.},
}
@article {pmid32364132,
year = {2020},
author = {Li, C and Gu, H},
title = {Climate change and mortality evolution in China.},
journal = {Journal of environmental management},
volume = {267},
number = {},
pages = {110622},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110622},
pmid = {32364132},
issn = {1095-8630},
abstract = {This paper explores the historical relationship between weather fluctuations and mortality evolution in China. Using panel data on the annual provincial mortality rate and daily weather variables for the 1964-2008 period, we applied a dynamic model structure with sufficient controls to estimate the short-term effects of temperature shocks on China's mortality rate. Our main results show that an additional 1 °C rise in average temperature in a given year increases the annual mortality rate by an average of 3.2%. In addition, days with daily average temperatures exceeding 27 °C (30 °C) are associated with an increase in the annual mortality rate of nearly 0.1% (0.2%) or approximately 9,520 (19,040) additional deaths. In contrast, extremely cold days do not have these effects. By applying a hybrid model structure (the long difference approach) to examine the medium-term effects of temperature changes, we find that there is little evidence of overall adaptation to high temperatures when moving from the short term to the medium term. In addition, by introducing interactions between temperatures and potential modifiers such as access to doctors, hospital beds, air conditioning and refrigerators, we determined that only residential air conditioning played an important role in mitigating the temperature-mortality relationship. However, the penetration of air conditioning in China is still relatively low. These findings indicate that climate change could partially explain the historical phenomenon of China's rising mortality rate during the unprecedented economic boom experienced since the 1980s.},
}
@article {pmid32361360,
year = {2020},
author = {Aboubakri, O and Khanjani, N and Jahani, Y and Bakhtiari, B and Mesgari, E},
title = {Projection of mortality attributed to heat and cold; the impact of climate change in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {728},
number = {},
pages = {138700},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138700},
pmid = {32361360},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Estimating the effects of climate change on human health can help health policy makers plan for the future. In Iran, there are few studies, about investigating the effects of climate change on mortality. This study aimed to project the effect of low (cold) and high (heat) temperature on mortality in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.<br><br>METHODS: Mortality attributed to temperature was projected by estimating the temperature-mortality relation for the observed data, projection of future temperatures by the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and quantifying the attributable fraction by applying the observed temperature-mortality relation on the projected temperature. Climate change projection was done by three climate scenarios base on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Adaptation was considered by using different minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) and risk reduction approaches. The current decade (2010-19) was considered as the reference period.<br><br>RESULTS: All three climate change scenarios, showed that the mean of temperature will rise about 1 °C, by 2050 in Kerman. The number of deaths attributed to heat were obviously higher than cold in all periods. Assuming no adaptation, over 3700 deaths attributed to temperature will happen in each decade (2020s, 2030s and 2040s) in the future, in which over 3000 deaths will be due to heat and over 450 due to cold. In the predictions, as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) went up, the contribution of heat to mortality slightly decreased, and cold temperature played a more important role. By considering the risk reduction due to adaptation, the contribution of heat in mortality slightly and insignificantly decreased.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results showed that although low temperatures will contribute to temperature-related mortality in the future, but heat will be a stronger risk factor for mortality, especially if adaptation is low.},
}
@article {pmid32361258,
year = {2020},
author = {Okwala, T and Shrestha, S and Ghimire, S and Mohanasundaram, S and Datta, A},
title = {Assessment of climate change impacts on water balance and hydrological extremes in Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri river basin, Thailand.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {186},
number = {},
pages = {109544},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109544},
pmid = {32361258},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {Among many factors the hydrology of a watershed is mainly influenced by climate and land use change. This study examined the impacts of climate change on water resources and extreme events in the Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri River Basin, Thailand using three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ACCESS1-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM, and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the future streamflow and Extreme Value Type I distribution (EVI) was used to analyze the extreme events under projected climate conditions. The result of this study showed an increase in maximum (1.9 °C/3.6 °C) and minimum (1.6 °C/3.3 °C) temperatures under RCP4.5/8.5 at the end of the 21st century. In addition, projected rainfall is expected to decrease up to 6.8% (8.5%) in 2050s and then increase slowly such that the decrement remains 4.2% (11.0%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) at the end of the century. The rainfall pattern is projected to considerably fluctuate, in particular, a shift in long term average annual peak event from September to August is predicted in 2080s under emission scenario RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). On the other hand, the average annual discharge is expected to increase up to 13.5% (2020s) and 7.6% (2050s) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively with decreasing trend in low flows and increasing trend in high flows. Further analysis on extreme events; strengthened the results from hydrological modeling with an increase in flow volume for the same return period under changed climate conditions. This raises water resources management issues in the Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri River Basin regarding the frequency of flood and drought events in the future calling for proper policy formulation and implementation.},
}
@article {pmid32359156,
year = {2020},
author = {Eastwood, MA},
title = {Global warming and the laws of nature.},
journal = {QJM : monthly journal of the Association of Physicians},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/qjmed/hcaa152},
pmid = {32359156},
issn = {1460-2393},
}
@article {pmid32358990,
year = {2020},
author = {Brice, MH and Vissault, S and Vieira, W and Gravel, D and Legendre, P and Fortin, MJ},
title = {Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15143},
pmid = {32358990},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonise boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional-scale forest transitions. We used a continuous-time multi-state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short-term transient dynamics and long-term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long-term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad-scale biome shifts.},
}
@article {pmid32358588,
year = {2020},
author = {Iwamura, T and Guzman-Holst, A and Murray, KA},
title = {Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {2130},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4},
pmid = {32358588},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950-2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2-4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector's global invasion potential.},
}
@article {pmid32357890,
year = {2020},
author = {Ryan, SJ and Lippi, CA and Zermoglio, F},
title = {Shifting transmission risk for malaria in Africa with climate change: a framework for planning and intervention.},
journal = {Malaria journal},
volume = {19},
number = {1},
pages = {170},
doi = {10.1186/s12936-020-03224-6},
pmid = {32357890},
issn = {1475-2875},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a disease of massive burden in Africa, and the public health resources targeted at surveillance, prevention, control, and intervention comprise large outlays of expense. Malaria transmission is largely constrained by the suitability of the climate for Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium parasite development. Thus, as climate changes, shifts in geographic locations suitable for transmission, and differing lengths of seasons of suitability will occur, which will require changes in the types and amounts of resources.<br><br>METHODS: The shifting geographic risk of malaria transmission was mapped, in context of changing seasonality (i.e. endemic to epidemic, and vice versa), and the number of people affected. A published temperature-dependent model of malaria transmission suitability was applied to continental gridded climate data for multiple future AR5 climate model projections. The resulting outcomes were aligned with programmatic needs to provide summaries at national and regional scales for the African continent. Model outcomes were combined with population projections to estimate the population at risk at three points in the future, 2030, 2050, and 2080, under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).<br><br>RESULTS: Estimated geographic shifts in endemic and seasonal suitability for malaria transmission were observed across all future scenarios of climate change. The worst-case regional scenario (RCP8.5) of climate change predicted an additional 75.9 million people at risk from endemic (10-12 months) exposure to malaria transmission in Eastern and Southern Africa by the year 2080, with the greatest population at risk in Eastern Africa. Despite a predominance of reduction in season length, a net gain of 51.3 million additional people is predicted be put at some level of risk in Western Africa by midcentury.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an updated view of potential malaria geographic shifts in Africa under climate change for the more recent climate model projections (AR5), and a tool for aligning findings with programmatic needs at key scales for decision-makers. In describing shifting seasonality, it was possible to capture transitions between endemic and epidemic risk areas, to facilitate the planning for interventions aimed at year-round risk versus anticipatory surveillance and rapid response to potential outbreak locations.},
}
@article {pmid32355377,
year = {2017},
author = {Demski, C and Capstick, S and Pidgeon, N and Sposato, RG and Spence, A},
title = {Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses.},
journal = {Climatic change},
volume = {140},
number = {2},
pages = {149-164},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1837-4},
pmid = {32355377},
issn = {0165-0009},
abstract = {The winter of 2013/2014 saw a series of severe storms hit the UK, leading to widespread flooding, a major emergency response and extensive media exposure. Previous research indicates that experiencing extreme weather events has the potential to heighten engagement with climate change, however the process by which this occurs remains largely unknown, and establishing a clear causal relationship from experience to perceptions is methodologically challenging. The UK winter flooding offered a natural experiment to examine this question in detail. We compare individuals personally affected by flooding (n = 162) to a nationally representative sample (n = 975). We show that direct experience of flooding leads to an overall increased salience of climate change, pronounced emotional responses and greater perceived personal vulnerability and risk perceptions. We also present the first evidence that direct flooding experience can give rise to behavioural intentions beyond individual sustainability actions, including support for mitigation policies, and personal climate adaptation in matters unrelated to the direct experience.},
}
@article {pmid32353287,
year = {2020},
author = {Ingle, HE and Mikulewicz, M},
title = {Mental health and climate change: tackling invisible injustice.},
journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health},
volume = {4},
number = {4},
pages = {e128-e130},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30081-4},
pmid = {32353287},
issn = {2542-5196},
}
@article {pmid32350458,
year = {2020},
author = {Rocklöv, J and Dubrow, R},
title = {Author Correction: Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.},
journal = {Nature immunology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/s41590-020-0692-7},
pmid = {32350458},
issn = {1529-2916},
abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.},
}
@article {pmid32350402,
year = {2020},
author = {Lori, M and Piton, G and Symanczik, S and Legay, N and Brussaard, L and Jaenicke, S and Nascimento, E and Reis, F and Sousa, JP and Mäder, P and Gattinger, A and Clément, JC and Foulquier, A},
title = {Compared to conventional, ecological intensive management promotes beneficial proteolytic soil microbial communities for agro-ecosystem functioning under climate change-induced rain regimes.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {7296},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64279-8},
pmid = {32350402},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Projected climate change and rainfall variability will affect soil microbial communities, biogeochemical cycling and agriculture. Nitrogen (N) is the most limiting nutrient in agroecosystems and its cycling and availability is highly dependent on microbial driven processes. In agroecosystems, hydrolysis of organic nitrogen (N) is an important step in controlling soil N availability. We analyzed the effect of management (ecological intensive vs. conventional intensive) on N-cycling processes and involved microbial communities under climate change-induced rain regimes. Terrestrial model ecosystems originating from agroecosystems across Europe were subjected to four different rain regimes for 263 days. Using structural equation modelling we identified direct impacts of rain regimes on N-cycling processes, whereas N-related microbial communities were more resistant. In addition to rain regimes, management indirectly affected N-cycling processes via modifications of N-related microbial community composition. Ecological intensive management promoted a beneficial N-related microbial community composition involved in N-cycling processes under climate change-induced rain regimes. Exploratory analyses identified phosphorus-associated litter properties as possible drivers for the observed management effects on N-related microbial community composition. This work provides novel insights into mechanisms controlling agro-ecosystem functioning under climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32350377,
year = {2020},
author = {Vetter, SG and Puskas, Z and Bieber, C and Ruf, T},
title = {How climate change and wildlife management affect population structure in wild boars.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {7298},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64216-9},
pmid = {32350377},
issn = {2045-2322},
support = {855666//Österreichische Forschungsförderungsgesellschaft (Austrian Research Promotion Agency)/ ; },
abstract = {Global climate change affects many species and contributes to the exceptional population growth of wild boar populations and thus to increasing human-wildlife conflicts. To investigate the impact of climate change on wild boar populations we extended existing models on population dynamics. We included for the first time different juvenile conditions to account for long-lasting effects of juvenile body mass on adult body mass and reproductive success. Our analysis shows that incorporating phenotypes, like body mass differences within age classes, has strong effects on projected population growth rates, population structures and the relative importance of certain vital rates. Our models indicated that an increase in winter temperatures and food availability will cause a decrease in mean body mass and litter size within Central European wild boar populations. We further analysed different hunting regimes to identify their effects on the population structure as well as their efficiency in limiting population growth. While targeting juveniles had the lowest effect on population structure, such strategies are, however, rather ineffective. In contrast, culling predominantly yearlings seems very effective. Despite being equally effective, only focusing on adults will not result in a reduction of population size due to their low proportion within populations.},
}
@article {pmid32350339,
year = {2020},
author = {Kusunoki, S and Ose, T and Hosaka, M},
title = {Author Correction: Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {7454},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63945-1},
pmid = {32350339},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.},
}
@article {pmid32350294,
year = {2020},
author = {Marcelino, J and Silva, JP and Gameiro, J and Silva, A and Rego, FC and Moreira, F and Catry, I},
title = {Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {7207},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64087-0},
pmid = {32350294},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.},
}
@article {pmid32347994,
year = {2020},
author = {Meynard, CN and Lecoq, M and Chapuis, MP and Piou, C},
title = {On the relative role of climate change and management in the current Desert Locust outbreak in East Africa.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15137},
pmid = {32347994},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {The current outbreak of the Desert Locust has affected much of eastern Africa and has reached as far as Pakistan and India in Asia, generating significant agricultural losses in a region that is already highly unstable economically, politically, and in terms of food security for its human populations (FAO, 2020). Desert Locust outbreaks require a combination of weather, soil and vegetation conditions that favour the reproduction and aggregation of otherwise solitary individuals (Despland et al., 2000) (Figure 1a). When those conditions appear, locusts aggregate, multiply in large numbers and migrate long distances, turning into a plague and devastating crops on their way.},
}
@article {pmid32347914,
year = {2020},
author = {Malaspina, D and Howell, EA and Spicer, J},
title = {Intergenerational Echoes of Climate Change.},
journal = {JAMA psychiatry},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.0604},
pmid = {32347914},
issn = {2168-6238},
}
@article {pmid32347501,
year = {2020},
author = {Shaffril, HAM and Idris, K and Sahharon, H and Samah, AA and Samah, BA},
title = {Adaptation towards climate change impacts among highland farmers in Malaysia.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08987-8},
pmid = {32347501},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {05-01-15-1755FR//Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia/ ; },
abstract = {This study aims to gain more understanding on highland farmers' adaptation towards the impacts of climate change in Malaysia. Via a multi-stage cluster sampling, this quantitative study has surveyed a total of 400 highland farmers as respondents. The results indicated that the highest climate change-resilient farmers were from Kundasang, specifically among the females, Dusun ethnic group, and those who work side jobs to cover household expenses. Furthermore, recorded factors such as age and years of experience yielded significant negative relationship with adaptation whereas income yielded significant positive relationship with adaptation. The paper concludes with recommendations related to occupational diversification, consistent information disseminations, access to financial assistance, and the need to empower extension officers and local leaders in the hope that a comprehensive approach can help implement any community climate change-adaptation plan.},
}
@article {pmid32346776,
year = {2020},
author = {Koch, S and Pecher, S},
title = {[New challenges for anesthesia due to the climate change].},
journal = {Der Anaesthesist},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00101-020-00770-1},
pmid = {32346776},
issn = {1432-055X},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate crisis is the most serious threat to global health in the twenty-first century. In western countries 5-10% of all greenhouse gas emissions originate from the healthcare sector and the main contributing factors are energy-intense departments (intensive care units, operating suits and prehospital emergency services).<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The aim of this review is to provide background knowledge and practical ideas to achieve climate-neutral hospitals.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: Narrative review with information on the topics of (I) volatile anesthetics as greenhouse gases, (II) energy supply in hospitals and (III) solid waste management.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: (I) Volatile anesthetics are highly potent greenhouse gases, especially desflurane has a major global warming potential. Total intravenous anesthesia (TIVA) with propofol or regional anesthetic techniques have a much lower impact on the climate. (II) Using sustainable energy sources as well as initiating energy sparing techniques, such as light-emitting diodes (LED) and motion sensors, can reduce CO2 emissions. (III) Waste can be managed by the reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink and research concept. Doctors should actively contribute to reach the climate goals.},
}
@article {pmid32346388,
year = {2020},
author = {Zhang, Z and Yang, Z and Fahad, S and Zhang, T and Xu, W and Cui, K and Peng, S and Huang, J},
title = {A hot-blast warming facility for simulating global warming in low-stature crop systems and its application case to assess elevated temperature effects on rice in Central China.},
journal = {Plant methods},
volume = {16},
number = {},
pages = {57},
doi = {10.1186/s13007-020-00598-1},
pmid = {32346388},
issn = {1746-4811},
abstract = {Background: To study the impact of climate warming on crops, it is crucial to have a warming equipment suitable for their field environment. A facility is needed that can provide suitable combinations of different temperatures at reasonable cost for large plots.<br><br>Results: Here, an additional field warming facility option named the hot-blast warming facility (HBWF), which comprised heaters, blowers, wind breaks, and a control board was developed. An application case based on HBWF was carried out to assess elevated temperature effects on rice in Central China during 2015 and 2016. We tested four elevated temperature treatments on four rice cultivars under paddy field conditions and measured yield and its components. Heating convection air directly, the facility could increase the temperature of the rice canopy up to 1-2 °C, which could properly simulate global warming. Considering the costs, the HBWF reduced the operating costs because of its relatively lower power consumption (0.164 kW/m2), which was 80% lower than that of Free Air Temperature Increase. Our results demonstrate that the HBWF could build a 25 m2 homogeneous heating area and had little effect on the relative humidity under a paddy field environment. Warming treatments significantly reduced the grain yield by 4.4-22.7% in 2015, and 30.8-61.9% in 2016, compared to the control. The main contribution to the significant decrease of the grain yields was the decrease in seed setting rate. Moreover, a reduction of 1000-grain weight led to the decline in grain yield. The increasing ranges of the temperature simulated by HBWF were stable in different years, however, whether the elevated treatments demonstrated significant difference on rice growth mainly decided by the basic atmospheric temperature (as the control) during the growth period.<br><br>Conclusions: The new warming facility is suitable for field trials to assess elevated temperature combinations and provides an extra equipment option for use in elevated temperature research in the future.},
}
@article {pmid32345877,
year = {2020},
author = {Young, JD},
title = {Environmental Amnesia: Climate Change and Medical Education.},
journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges},
volume = {95},
number = {5},
pages = {667-668},
doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000003184},
pmid = {32345877},
issn = {1938-808X},
}
@article {pmid32344223,
year = {2020},
author = {Zhang, L and Zhang, Z and Luo, Y and Cao, J and Li, Z},
title = {Optimizing genotype-environment-management interactions for maize farmers to adapt to climate change in different agro-ecological zones across China.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {728},
number = {},
pages = {138614},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138614},
pmid = {32344223},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Crop growth conditions are being altered by ongoing climate change and the agronomic management practices should be adjusted accordingly and timely. In Chinese Maize Belt, climate change impacts are always compounded by agronomic management and the regional differences have yet to be well understood. How local farmers adapt to climate change is a big challenge and related adaptive strategies are urgently required. Based on detailed field experiments performed for >15 years, we applied the CERES-Maize model to disentangle the impacts of individual climate variables, quantify the contributions of three low-cost measures (cultivar, sowing date, and planting density) to yield variations, and design effective adaptation options in each zone. We found the patterns and impacts of climate change varied among the cultivated areas: yield increased by 0.39% per year in Northeast China (NEC) and 0.78% in the northwestern arid area (NWA) but decreased by 1.13% in the North China Plain (NCP). The results highlighted the considerable impacts of increased minimum temperature and decreased solar radiation on the changes of maize yield. CERES-Maize model reproduced the phenology and yield well with <9% bias and >81% yield explanation ability. The simulation results suggested that an appropriate delay in sowing date could mitigate climatic negative effects and enhance maize yields significantly. Planting cultivars of Nongda108 in NEC, Zhengdan958 in the NCP, and Shendan10 in the NWA substantially increased yield compared with planting the cultivars most widely used by farmers. The optimal planting density were 11.4, 12.3, and 12.7 plants/m2 respectively, which were generally higher than the local common levels. By optimizing genotype (G)-environment (E)-management (M) interactions, maize yield can be enhanced by at least 10%, especially in the NWA, implying that efforts to increase food production should be made in low-yielding zones. This study illustrated the patterns of climate change in different zones, and demonstrated an effective approach to develop sustainable intensification options and improve yield and stability with fewer economic-environmental costs by optimizing G × E × M interactions in the future.},
}
@article {pmid32343630,
year = {2020},
author = {Zadkovic, S and Lombardo, N and Cole, DC},
title = {Breastfeeding and Climate Change: Overlapping Vulnerabilities and Integrating Responses.},
journal = {Journal of human lactation : official journal of International Lactation Consultant Association},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {890334420920223},
doi = {10.1177/0890334420920223},
pmid = {32343630},
issn = {1552-5732},
}
@article {pmid32341394,
year = {2020},
author = {Bezeng, BS and Yessoufou, K and Taylor, PJ and Tesfamichael, SG},
title = {Expected spatial patterns of alien woody plants in South Africa's protected areas under current scenario of climate change.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {7038},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63830-x},
pmid = {32341394},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Although protected areas (PAs) are declared to provide sanctuaries for biodiversity, they are increasingly threatened by the synergistic effects of anthropic factors, invasive alien species and climate change. Consequently, interventions are required to minimize the impacts of these threats on PAs' integrity. To inform these interventions in the South African context and under the current climate change scenario, we tested for geographic patterns of alien woody species across the network of 1,453 PAs using three alien invasion indices - alien species abundance, invaded area ratio and alien species richness. Our analysis shows that, under current climate change scenario, none of the PAs would be effective in shielding against alien plants and PAs that are geographically close tend to share similar invasion patterns. In addition, PAs that are hotspots of alien species are also geographically clustered but these findings are biome-dependent. Our outlier analysis reveals not only an island of disproportionately rich PAs in alien species, but also identifies some alien-poor PAs. We suggest that PAs that are hotspots of alien species as well as outliers of disproportionately rich PAs in alien species should be priority in monitoring and invasion control programmes in the context of the ongoing climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32339294,
year = {2020},
author = {Tiwari, R and Gloor, E and da Cruz, WJA and Schwantes Marimon, B and Marimon-Junior, BH and Reis, SM and de Souza, IA and Krause, HG and Slot, M and Winter, K and Ashley, D and Béu, RG and Borges, CS and Da Cunha, M and Fauset, S and Dos Santos Ferreira, L and Gonçalves, MDA and Lopes, TT and Marques, EQ and Mendonça, NG and Mendonça, NG and Noleto, PT and de Oliveira, CHL and Oliveira, MA and Pireda, S and Dos Santos Prestes, NCC and Santos, DM and Santos, EB and da Silva, ELS and de Souza, IA and de Souza, LJ and Vitória, AP and Foyer, CH and Galbraith, D},
title = {Photosynthetic quantum efficiency in South-Eastern Amazonian trees may be already affected by climate change.},
journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/pce.13770},
pmid = {32339294},
issn = {1365-3040},
abstract = {Tropical forests are experiencing unprecedented high temperature conditions due to climate change that could limit their photosynthetic functions. We studied the high temperature sensitivity of photosynthesis in a rainforest site in southern Amazonia, where some of the highest temperatures and most rapid warming in the Tropics have been recorded. The quantum yield (Fv /Fm) of photosystem II was measured in seven dominant tree species using leaf discs exposed to varying levels of heat stress. T50 was calculated as the temperature at which Fv /Fm was half the maximum value. T5 is defined as the breakpoint temperature, at which Fv /Fm decline was initiated. Leaf thermotolerance in the rapidly warming Southern Amazonia was the highest recorded for forest tree species globally. T50 and T5 varied between species, with one mid storey species, Amaioua guianensis, exhibiting particularly high T50 and T5 values. While the T50 values of the species sampled were several degrees above the maximum air temperatures experienced in southern Amazonia, the T5 values of several species are now exceeded under present-day maximum air temperatures. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid32337781,
year = {2020},
author = {Vezzulli, L and Baker-Austin, C and Kirschner, A and Pruzzo, C and Martinez-Urtaza, J},
title = {Global emergence of environmental non-O1/O139 Vibrio cholerae infections linked with climate change: a neglected research field?.},
journal = {Environmental microbiology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.15040},
pmid = {32337781},
issn = {1462-2920},
abstract = {The bacterium Vibrio cholerae is a natural inhabitant of aquatic ecosystems across the planet. V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 are responsible for cholera outbreaks in developing countries accounting for 3-5 million infections worldwide and 28.800-130.000 deaths per year according to World Health Organization. In contrast, V. cholerae serogroups other than O1 and O139, also designated as V. cholerae non-O1/O139 (NOVC), are not associated with epidemic cholera but can cause other illnesses that may range in severity from mild (e.g. gastroenteritis, otitis, etc.) to life-threatening (e.g. necrotizing fasciitis). Although generally neglected, NOVC related infections are on the rise and represent one of the most striking examples of emerging human diseases linked to climate change. NOVC strains are also believed to potentially contribute to the emergence of new pathogenic strains including strains with epidemic potential as a direct consequence of genetic exchange mechanisms such as horizontal gene transfer and genetic recombination. Besides general features concerning the biology and ecology of NOVC strains and their associated diseases this review aims to highlight most relevant aspects related to the emergence and potential threat posed by NOVC strains under a rapidly changing environmental and climatic scenario. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid32334228,
year = {2020},
author = {Kouloumpis, V and Pell, RS and Correa-Cano, ME and Yan, X},
title = {Potential trade-offs between eliminating plastics and mitigating climate change: An LCA perspective on Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) bottles in Cornwall.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {727},
number = {},
pages = {138681},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138681},
pmid = {32334228},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The aim of this study is to investigate whether eliminating plastics entirely under existing waste infrastructure and management practices could have an adverse effect on climate change, using a case study on the hypothetical substitution of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) with glass as the material for bottling liquids in the domestic sector in Cornwall, England. A life cycle environmental impacts-based model was created using high resolution local data on household waste and current management practices in combination with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) datasets. The model allows users to define key system parameters such as masses of materials, transport options and end-of-life processes and produces results for 11 environmental impact categories including the Global Warming Potential (GWP). The results from the application of this model on the case study of Cornwall have shown that the substitution of PET with glass as the material for bottling under the current waste infrastructure and management practices could lead to significant increases in GWP and hinder efforts to tackle climate change. A sensitivity analysis of the glass/PET mass ratio suggests that in order to achieve equal GWP the glass bottles need to become approximately 38% of the weight they are now. Increasing the recycled content and decreasing losses during the recycling processes could also help lower the GWP by 18.9% and 14.5%, respectively. This model can be expanded further to include more types of plastics and other regions to evaluate designs of new regional circular economy with less plastics waste and pollution. Our study suggests that it is necessary and crucial to consider the specific waste infrastructure and management practices in place and use science-based models that incorporate life cycle thinking to evaluate any solutions to plastics pollution in order to avoid problem shifting.},
}
@article {pmid32334166,
year = {2020},
author = {Ngin, C and Chhom, C and Neef, A},
title = {Climate change impacts and disaster resilience among micro businesses in the tourism and hospitality sector: The case of Kratie, Cambodia.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {186},
number = {},
pages = {109557},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109557},
pmid = {32334166},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {Cambodia is considered extremely vulnerable to climate change due to high poverty, limited infrastructure, and weak adaptive capacity. Kratie province, in particular, has suffered from climate-induced disasters, including floods, droughts, storms, lightning, and heatwaves. To date, climate change interventions in the province have primarily focused on impacts on agriculture. However, enhancing the climate resilience of micro businesses in the tourism and hospitality sector is also crucial since the provincial economy increasingly depends on the interlinkage between agriculture, tourism and related enterprises. This article examines how climate change has impacted micro businesses in Kratie Town, and how they responded to the impacts. This study is based on semi-structured interviews with micro entrepreneurs randomly selected in the town. Results show that businesses have been predominantly affected by floods and storms. Business exposures and locations, types of business, production and supply chains, and client bases determined different impacts of and responses to these climate-related hazards. Businesses adopted primarily temporary and reactive responses rather than long-term systematic measures. Strengthening adaptive infrastructure, both physical and informational, will improve businesses' capability to prepare for and cope with these disasters.},
}
@article {pmid32333476,
year = {2020},
author = {Nielsen, ME and Kingsolver, JG},
title = {Compensating for climate change-induced cue-environment mismatches: evidence for contemporary evolution of a photoperiodic reaction norm in Colias butterflies.},
journal = {Ecology letters},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/ele.13515},
pmid = {32333476},
issn = {1461-0248},
support = {1609023//Division of Biological Infrastructure/ ; },
abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change alters seasonal conditions without altering photoperiod and can thus create a cue-environment mismatch for organisms that use photoperiod as a cue for seasonal plasticity. We investigated whether evolution of the photoperiodic reaction norm has compensated for this mismatch in Colias eurytheme. This butterfly's wing melanization has a thermoregulatory function and changes seasonally. In 1971, Hoffmann quantified how larval photoperiod determines adult wing melanization. We recreated his experiment 47 years later using a contemporary population. Comparing our results to his, we found decreased melanization at short photoperiods but no change in melanization at long photoperiods, which is consistent with the greater increase in spring than summer temperatures recorded for this region. Our study shows that evolution can help correct cue-environment mismatches but not in the same way under all conditions. Studies of contemporary evolution may miss important changes if they focus on only a limited range of conditions.},
}
@article {pmid32333012,
year = {2020},
author = {Lembrechts, J},
title = {The Holy Trinity of spatial climate change ecology: high-resolution climate data, long-term biodiversity monitoring and physiological experiments. A commentary on: 'Invasive grasses of sub-Antarctic Marion Island respond to increasing temperatures at the expense of chilling tolerance'.},
journal = {Annals of botany},
volume = {125},
number = {5},
pages = {ix-x},
doi = {10.1093/aob/mcaa057},
pmid = {32333012},
issn = {1095-8290},
}
@article {pmid32332913,
year = {2020},
author = {Elsen, PR and Monahan, WB and Merenlender, AM},
title = {Topography and human pressure in mountain ranges alter expected species responses to climate change.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {1974},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15881-x},
pmid = {32332913},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {Climate change is leading to widespread elevational shifts thought to increase species extinction risk in mountains. We integrate digital elevation models with a metric of human pressure to examine changes in the amount of intact land area available for species undergoing elevational range shifts in all major mountain ranges globally (n = 1010). Nearly 60% of mountainous area is under intense human pressure, predominantly at low elevations and mountain bases. Consequently, upslope range shifts generally resulted in modeled species at lower elevations expanding into areas of lower human pressure and, due to complex topography, encountering more intact land area relative to their starting position. Such gains were often attenuated at high elevations as land-use constraints diminished and topographic constraints increased. Integrating patterns of topography and human pressure is essential for accurate species vulnerability assessments under climate change, as priorities for protecting, connecting, and restoring mountain landscapes may otherwise be misguided.},
}
@article {pmid32332758,
year = {2020},
author = {Rathore, S and Bindoff, NL and Phillips, HE and Feng, M},
title = {Recent hemispheric asymmetry in global ocean warming induced by climate change and internal variability.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {2008},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15754-3},
pmid = {32332758},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {Recent research shows that 90% of the net global ocean heat gain during 2005-2015 was confined to the southern hemisphere with little corresponding heat gain in the northern hemisphere ocean. We propose that this heating pattern of the ocean is driven by anthropogenic climate change and an asymmetric climate variation between the two hemispheres. This asymmetric variation is found in the pre-industrial control simulations from 11 climate models. While both layers (0-700 m and 700-2000 m) experience steady anthropogenic warming, the 0-700 m layer experiences large internal variability, which primarily drives the observed hemispheric asymmetry of global ocean heat gain in 0-2000 m layer. We infer that the rate of global ocean warming is consistent with the climate simulations for this period. However, the observed hemispheric asymmetry in heat gain can be explained by the Earth's internal climate variability without invoking alternate hypotheses, such as asymmetric aerosol loading.},
}
@article {pmid32331869,
year = {2020},
author = {Pryce, JE and Haile-Mariam, M},
title = {Symposium review: Genomic selection for reducing environmental impact and adapting to climate change.},
journal = {Journal of dairy science},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3168/jds.2019-17732},
pmid = {32331869},
issn = {1525-3198},
abstract = {The world has been warming as greenhouse gases accumulate. Worldwide from 1880 to 2012, the average surface temperature has increased by about 0.85°C and by 0.12°C per decade since 1951. The world's cattle population is a contributor to atmospheric methane, a potent greenhouse gas, in addition to suffering from high temperatures combined with humidity. This makes research into reducing the global footprint of dairy cows of importance on a long-term horizon, while improving tolerance to heat could alleviate the effects of rising temperatures. In December 2017, genomic estimated breeding values for heat tolerance in dairy cattle were released for the first time in Australia. Currently, heat tolerance is not included in the Balanced Performance Index (Australia's national selection index), and the correlation between heat tolerance breeding values and Balanced Performance Index is -0.20, so over time, heat tolerance has worsened due to lack of selection pressure. However, in contrast, sizable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions have been achieved as a favorable response to selecting for increased productivity, longevity, and efficiency, with opportunities for even greater gains through selecting for cow emissions directly. Internationally considerable research effort has been made to develop breeding values focused on reducing methane emissions using individual cow phenotypes. This requires (1) definition of breeding objectives and selection criteria and (2) assembling a sufficiently large data set for genomic prediction. Selecting for heat tolerance and reduced emissions directly may improve resilience to changing environments while reducing environmental impact.},
}
@article {pmid32331213,
year = {2020},
author = {Dzomeku, BM and Wald, JP and Wünsche, JN and Nohr, D and Biesalski, HK},
title = {Climate Change Enhanced Carotenoid Pro-Vitamin A Levels of Selected Plantain Cultivars.},
journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)},
volume = {9},
number = {4},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/plants9040541},
pmid = {32331213},
issn = {2223-7747},
abstract = {Diet diversification and the exploitation of traditional, micronutrient-rich germplasm of staple crops are generally regarded as sustainable and low-cost approaches to increase the micronutrient intake of resource-poor people. Sun's UV index was collected daily throughout the year. The study assessed the seasonality of provitamin A carotenoids in three plantain cultivars in response to climatic condition. Fruits were harvested at three maturities and freeze-dried before analysis. The results showed that there were high levels of the sun's UV-B radiations throughout the year with the highest occurring from November to May when the area experienced clear skies with minimal cloud cover. These high levels of the sun's UV-B index occurred between 9.00 h GMT and 17.00 h GMT. The study also showed that α-carotene content increased with maturity in &quot;Apantu&quot; during the rainy seasons ranging from 95 to 172 μg/100 g of dry pulp. Similar trends were observed during the dry season with a range of 28 to 489 μg/100 g. The α-carotene contents were very high in the periods of high sun's UV-B radiations compared to the periods of low sun's UV-B radiations. The α-carotene levels in the giant French plantains showed similar trends. Intermediate French &quot;Oniaba&quot; and False Horn &quot;Apantu&quot; plantain cultivar showed the highest content of β-carotene during the dry season. The high provitamin A carotenoid levels in the cultivars coincided with the high levels of the sun's UV index.},
}
@article {pmid32330705,
year = {2020},
author = {Wang, L and Li, M and Wang, J and Li, X and Wang, L},
title = {An analytical reductionist framework to separate the effects of climate change and human activities on variation in water use efficiency.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {727},
number = {},
pages = {138306},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138306},
pmid = {32330705},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is a key indicator that depicts the carbon-water coupling relationship in terrestrial ecosystems. Separating the effects of climate change and human activities to the variation in WUE are essential for water resources and ecosystem management, especially for fragile ecosystems such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, we introduced an analytical framework that combined the attribution approach with the elastic coefficient separation method to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on WUE variation in the TP from 1982 to 2015. The results are the following: (1) the multiyear mean annual WUE over the TP was 0.65 g C·kg-1 H2O and had a slightly increasing trend with a slope of 0.004 g C·kg-1 H2O yr-1 with about 87% of the vegetated area showed increasing trend. (2) WUE was positively correlated with temperature, precipitation and air pressure. The northwest TP tends to be a water-limited condition, while the thermal stress is spatially universal in the TP, climate warming and wetting promoted the gross primary productivity (GPP) and WUE enhancement in the TP. (3) WUE was more sensitive to GPP, and variation in WUE was mainly contributed by GPP. Climate change and human activities tend to cause more variations in GPP rather than evapotranspiration (ET), but great differences exist for different regions and vegetation types. (4) There was a good consistency between the WUE variation calculated by the framework and the actual WUE variation (R2 = 0.95). Climate change dominated the increase of WUE in the TP with a contribution rate of 79.8%, while human activities tend to reduce WUE (-20.2%). Ecological projects played a positive role in the ecological restoration of the TP, but there may be other human activities, which caused ecological degradation, that may need more attention in future ecological protections.},
}
@article {pmid32325610,
year = {2020},
author = {Franzellitti, S and Prada, F and Viarengo, A and Fabbri, E},
title = {Evaluating bivalve cytoprotective responses and their regulatory pathways in a climate change scenario.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {720},
number = {},
pages = {137733},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137733},
pmid = {32325610},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Temperature is a relevant abiotic factor affecting physiological performance and distribution of marine animals in natural environments. The changes in global seawater temperatures make it necessary to understand how molecular mechanisms operate under the cumulative effects of global climate change and chemical pollution to promote/hamper environmental acclimatization. Marine mussels are excellent model organisms to infer the impacts of those anthropogenic threats on coastal ecosystems. In this study, Mediterranean mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) were exposed to different concentrations of the metal copper (Cu as CuCl2: 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 40 μg/L) or the antibiotic oxytetracycline (OTC: 0.1, 1, 10, 100, 1000 μg/L) at increasing seawater temperatures (16 °C, 20 °C, 24 °C). Transcriptional modulation of a 70-kDa heat shock protein (HSP70) and of the ABC transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp, encoded by the ABCB gene) was assessed along with the cAMP/PKA signaling pathway regulating both gene expressions. At the physiological temperature of mussels (16 °C), Cu and OTC induced bimodal changes of cAMP levels and PKA activities in gills of exposed animals. A correlation between OTC- or Cu- induced changes of PKA activity and expression of hsp70 and ABCB was observed. Temperature increases (up to 24 °C) altered ABCB and hsp70 responses to the pollutants and disrupted their relationship with cAMP/PKA modulation, leading to loss of correlation between the biological endpoints. On the whole, the results indicate that temperature may impair the effects of inorganic and organic chemicals on the cAMP/PKA signaling pathway of mussels, in turn altering key molecular mediators of physiological plasticity and cytoprotection.},
}
@article {pmid32325298,
year = {2020},
author = {Liang, L and Deng, X and Wang, P and Wang, Z and Wang, L},
title = {Assessment of the impact of climate change on cities livability in China.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {726},
number = {},
pages = {138339},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138339},
pmid = {32325298},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {As global warming worsens, climatic conditions in many regions are undergoing profound change, which could influence certain industries, such as agriculture and transportation, and affect the livability of cities. In this study, cities statistics and meteorological station data of the past decade in China were used to analyze the effect of climate change on cities livability. The livability of 288 Chinese cities during 2006-2016 was assessed using an analytic hierarchy process method. Results showed the mean cities livability index in China has improved about 12% throughout the past decade. Moreover, the Moran's I statistic and local indicators of spatial association revealed that the distribution of cities livability reflects a trend of gradual spatial agglomeration. In addition, geostatistical analysis was used to evaluate the impact of extreme weather events on cities livability. It was established that heatwaves and extreme precipitation events have significant impact on the livability of cities in southern China, whereas freezing weather drives the change of urban livability in northern areas. Combinations of different extreme weather conditions will have greater impact on urban livability. Based on mobile phone user data, the relationship between livability change and climate change in Chinese cities was elucidated to provide reference for urban environmental management.},
}
@article {pmid32322063,
year = {2020},
author = {Trisos, CH and Merow, C and Pigot, AL},
title = {The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {580},
number = {7804},
pages = {496-501},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9},
pmid = {32322063},
issn = {1476-4687},
abstract = {As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon1-3. However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 °C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species; however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 °C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.},
}
@article {pmid32321030,
year = {2020},
author = {Ellwanger, JH and Kulmann-Leal, B and Kaminski, VL and Valverde-Villegas, JM and Veiga, ABGD and Spilki, FR and Fearnside, PM and Caesar, L and Giatti, LL and Wallau, GL and Almeida, SEM and Borba, MR and Hora, VPD and Chies, JAB},
title = {Beyond diversity loss and climate change: Impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious diseases and public health.},
journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias},
volume = {92},
number = {1},
pages = {e20191375},
doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202020191375},
pmid = {32321030},
issn = {1678-2690},
abstract = {Amazonian biodiversity is increasingly threatened due to the weakening of policies for combating deforestation, especially in Brazil. Loss of animal and plant species, many not yet known to science, is just one among many negative consequences of Amazon deforestation. Deforestation affects indigenous communities, riverside as well as urban populations, and even planetary health. Amazonia has a prominent role in regulating the Earth's climate, with forest loss contributing to rising regional and global temperatures and intensification of extreme weather events. These climatic conditions are important drivers of emerging infectious diseases, and activities associated with deforestation contribute to the spread of disease vectors. This review presents the main impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious-disease dynamics and public health from a One Health perspective. Because Brazil holds the largest area of Amazon rainforest, emphasis is given to the Brazilian scenario. Finally, potential solutions to mitigate deforestation and emerging infectious diseases are presented from the perspectives of researchers in different fields.},
}
@article {pmid32319066,
year = {2020},
author = {Shabbir, G and Khaliq, T and Ahmad, A and Saqib, M},
title = {Assessing the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for rice production in Punjab, Pakistan.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08846-6},
pmid = {32319066},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {Climate change is a serious threat to agriculture and food security. The development of adaptation measures is one of the key strategies to offset the climate change impacts on rice crop. A study was planned to develop adaptation strategies for future rice crop through simulation model. This study was consisted of six transplanting dates and three seedling densities which were tested to develop adaptations at three locations, i.e., Faisalabad, Hafizabad, and Gujranwala during the years 2015 and 2016. Climate change scenarios were developed for selected locations through statistical downscaling by selecting five general circulation models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 8.5) for mid-century (2039-2069). The APSIM-ORYZA model was calibrated well with experimental data which showed an error of 2.35% between observed and simulated grain yield. The impact of climate change was studied by calculating the difference of baseline (1980-2010) and future yield. Model simulated results indicated that the rise in temperature will reduce the rice yield by 7.3%. To overcome this decrease in rice yield, suitable adaptation strategies were tested for mid-century. The developed adaptations, i.e., increased in plant population, nitrogen amount, and early transplanting, improved the rice yield by 8.7% under RCPs 8.5 for mid-century scenarios. Overall, this study provide better understanding of the adaptation processes for sustainable rice yield under anticipated future climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32317801,
year = {2020},
author = {Lawrence, J and Haasnoot, M and Lempert, R},
title = {Climate change: making decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {580},
number = {7804},
pages = {456},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-01147-5},
pmid = {32317801},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32317685,
year = {2020},
author = {Cheung, WWL and Frölicher, TL},
title = {Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {6678},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63650-z},
pmid = {32317685},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in all ocean basins with severe negative impacts on coastal and ocean ecosystems. The northeast Pacific 2013-2015 MHW in particular received major societal concerns. Yet, our knowledge about how MHWs impact fish stocks is limited. Here, we combine outputs from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model with a fish impact model to simulate responses of major northeast Pacific fish stocks to MHWs. We show that MHWs cause biomass decrease and shifts in biogeography of fish stocks that are at least four times faster and bigger in magnitude than the effects of decadal-scale mean changes throughout the 21st century. With MHWs, we project a doubling of impact levels by 2050 amongst the most important fisheries species over previous assessments that focus only on long-term climate change. Our results underscore the additional challenges from MHWs for fisheries and their management under climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32317639,
year = {2020},
author = {Krabbenhoft, TJ and Myers, BJE and Wong, JP and Chu, C and Tingley, RW and Falke, JA and Kwak, TJ and Paukert, CP and Lynch, AJ},
title = {FiCli, the Fish and Climate Change Database, informs climate adaptation and management for freshwater fishes.},
journal = {Scientific data},
volume = {7},
number = {1},
pages = {124},
doi = {10.1038/s41597-020-0465-z},
pmid = {32317639},
issn = {2052-4463},
abstract = {Inland fishes provide important ecosystem services to communities worldwide and are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Fish respond to climate change in diverse and nuanced ways, which creates challenges for practitioners of fish conservation, climate change adaptation, and management. Although climate change is known to affect fish globally, a comprehensive online, public database of how climate change has impacted inland fishes worldwide and adaptation or management practices that may address these impacts does not exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify peer-reviewed journal publications describing projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes. From this standardized Fish and Climate Change database, FiCli (pronounced fick-lee), researchers and managers can query fish families, species, response types, or geographic locations to obtain summary information on inland fish responses to climate change and recommended management actions. The FiCli database is updatable and provides access to comprehensive published information to inform inland fish conservation and adaptation planning in a changing climate.},
}
@article {pmid32315590,
year = {2020},
author = {Louis, M and Skovrind, M and Samaniego Castruita, JA and Garilao, C and Kaschner, K and Gopalakrishnan, S and Haile, JS and Lydersen, C and Kovacs, KM and Garde, E and Heide-Jørgensen, MP and Postma, L and Ferguson, SH and Willerslev, E and Lorenzen, ED},
title = {Influence of past climate change on phylogeography and demographic history of narwhals, Monodon monoceros.},
journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences},
volume = {287},
number = {1925},
pages = {20192964},
doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.2964},
pmid = {32315590},
issn = {1471-2954},
abstract = {The Arctic is warming at an unprecedented rate, with unknown consequences for endemic fauna. However, Earth has experienced severe climatic oscillations in the past, and understanding how species responded to them might provide insight into their resilience to near-future climatic predictions. Little is known about the responses of Arctic marine mammals to past climatic shifts, but narwhals (Monodon monoceros) are considered one of the endemic Arctic species most vulnerable to environmental change. Here, we analyse 121 complete mitochondrial genomes from narwhals sampled across their range and use them in combination with species distribution models to elucidate the influence of past and ongoing climatic shifts on their population structure and demographic history. We find low levels of genetic diversity and limited geographic structuring of genetic clades. We show that narwhals experienced a long-term low effective population size, which increased after the Last Glacial Maximum, when the amount of suitable habitat expanded. Similar post-glacial habitat release has been a key driver of population size expansion of other polar marine predators. Our analyses indicate that habitat availability has been critical to the success of narwhals, raising concerns for their fate in an increasingly warming Arctic.},
}
@article {pmid32313262,
year = {2020},
author = {Li, G and Yin, B and Li, J and Wang, J and Wei, W and Bolnick, DI and Wan, X and Zhu, B and Zhang, Z},
title = {Host-microbiota interaction helps to explain the bottom-up effects of climate change on a small rodent species.},
journal = {The ISME journal},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/s41396-020-0646-y},
pmid = {32313262},
issn = {1751-7370},
support = {31700344//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; },
abstract = {The population cycles of small rodents have puzzled biologists for centuries. There is a growing recognition of the cascading effects of climate change on the population dynamics of rodents. However, the ultimate cause for the bottom-up effects of precipitation is poorly understood, from a microbial perspective. Here, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment in the field, and three feeding trials with controlled diets in the laboratory. We found precipitation supplementation facilitated the recovery of a perennial rhizomatous grass (Leymus chinensis) species, which altered the diet composition and increase the intake of fructose and fructooligosaccharides for Brandt's vole. Lab results showed that this nutrient shift was accompanied by the modulation of gut microbiota composition and functional pathways (especially for the degradation or biosynthesis of L-histidine). Particularly, the relative abundance of Eubacterium hallii was consistently increased after feeding voles with more L. chinensis, fructose or fructooligosaccharide. These modulations ultimately increased the production of short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and boosted the growth of vole. This study provides evidence that the precipitation pulses cascades through the plant community to affect rodent gut microbiome. Our results highlight the importance of considering host-microbiota interaction when investigating rodent population responses to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32313242,
year = {2020},
author = {Rocklöv, J and Dubrow, R},
title = {Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.},
journal = {Nature immunology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/s41590-020-0648-y},
pmid = {32313242},
issn = {1529-2916},
support = {Formas Grant No. 2018-01754//Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council)/ ; },
}
@article {pmid32313241,
year = {2020},
author = {Semenza, JC},
title = {Cascading risks of waterborne diseases from climate change.},
journal = {Nature immunology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/s41590-020-0631-7},
pmid = {32313241},
issn = {1529-2916},
}
@article {pmid32313137,
year = {2020},
author = {Nishiyama, Y},
title = {Resilience under climate change.},
journal = {Nature plants},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/s41477-020-0639-x},
pmid = {32313137},
issn = {2055-0278},
}
@article {pmid32312964,
year = {2020},
author = {Reverter, M and Sarter, S and Caruso, D and Avarre, JC and Combe, M and Pepey, E and Pouyaud, L and Vega-Heredía, S and de Verdal, H and Gozlan, RE},
title = {Aquaculture at the crossroads of global warming and antimicrobial resistance.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {1870},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15735-6},
pmid = {32312964},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {In many developing countries, aquaculture is key to ensuring food security for millions of people. It is thus important to measure the full implications of environmental changes on the sustainability of aquaculture. We conduct a double meta-analysis (460 articles) to explore how global warming and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) impact aquaculture. We calculate a Multi-Antibiotic Resistance index (MAR) of aquaculture-related bacteria (11,274 isolates) for 40 countries, of which mostly low- and middle-income countries present high AMR levels. Here we show that aquaculture MAR indices correlate with MAR indices from human clinical bacteria, temperature and countries' climate vulnerability. We also find that infected aquatic animals present higher mortalities at warmer temperatures. Countries most vulnerable to climate change will probably face the highest AMR risks, impacting human health beyond the aquaculture sector, highlighting the need for urgent action. Sustainable solutions to minimise antibiotic use and increase system resilience are therefore needed.},
}
@article {pmid32310277,
year = {2020},
author = {Inoue, S and Dang, QL and Man, R and Tedla, B},
title = {Photoperiod and CO2 elevation influence morphological and physiological responses to drought in trembling aspen: implications to climate change-induced migration.},
journal = {Tree physiology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpaa044},
pmid = {32310277},
issn = {1758-4469},
abstract = {Past research suggests that climate change will cause the climate envelopes of various tree species to shift higher latitudes and can lead to a northward migration of trees. However, the success and scope of the migration are likely affected by factors that are not contained in the climate envelope, such as photoperiod and interactive effects of multiple environmental factors, and these effects are currently not well understood. In this study, we investigated the interactive effects of CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), photoperiod, and soil moisture on the morphological and physiological traits of Populus tremuloides Michx.. We grew seedlings under two [CO2] (AC 400 vs. EC 1000 μmol mol-1), four photoperiod regimes (growing season photoperiods at 48 (seed origin), 52, 55, and 58°N latitude) and two soil moisture regimes (high (HSM) vs. low (LSM, -2 MP) for two growing seasons in greenhouses. Both morphological and physiological responses were observed. The LSM reduced leaf size, total leaf area and height growth by 33%, 46%, and 12%, respectively, and increased root/shoot ratio by 20%. The smaller leaf area and increased root/shoot ratio allowed the seedlings in LSM to maintain higher Vcmax and Jmax than control seedlings (55% and 83% higher in July, 52% and 70% in August, respectively). Photoperiod and [CO2] modified responses to LSM and LSM altered responses to photoperiod and [CO2], e.g., the August photosynthetic rate was 44% higher in LSM than in HSM under EC but no such a difference existed under AC. The increase in Vcmax and Jmax in response to LSM varied with photoperiod (Vcmax: 36% at 52°N, 22% at 55°N, 47% at 58°N; Jmax: 29% at 52°N, 21% at 55°N, 45% at 58°N). Stomatal conductance and its reduction in response to LSM declined with increasing photoperiod, which can have significant implications for soil moisture effect on northward migration. This study highlights the need to consider the complex interactions of [CO2], photoperiod and soil moisture when planning assisted migration or predicting the natural migration of boreal forests in the future.},
}
@article {pmid32304458,
year = {2020},
author = {Durieux, ME},
title = {&quot;Primum Non Nocere&quot;: Global Health and Climate Change.},
journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1213/ANE.0000000000004815},
pmid = {32304458},
issn = {1526-7598},
}
@article {pmid32304066,
year = {2020},
author = {Bakhsh, K and Abbas, K and Hassan, S and Yasin, MA and Ali, R and Ahmad, N and Chattha, MWA},
title = {Climate change-induced human conflicts and economic costs in Pakistani Punjab.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08607-5},
pmid = {32304066},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {Understanding causes of interpersonal conflicts, related costs, and the effects on investment in agriculture are important concerns of social sciences. The present study was designed to explore these aspects in relation to climate change, since rising temperature and precipitation are considered crucial causal factors in fueling interpersonal conflicts. The study used cross-sectional data collected from rural farm households from a large district of Pakistani Punjab. Cost of conflicts was estimated using standard economic methods whereas factors affecting interpersonal conflicts were estimated through employing logit model. The study found that interpersonal conflicts cost US$135 per month for following the proceedings of the conflicts filed in the court. Households involved in conflicts spent significantly very few resources in purchasing farm inputs which in turn declined productivity of maize (28%) and sugarcane (19%). Warm temperature, precipitation, and windstorm were perceived by households as causal factors for interpersonal conflicts. Socioeconomic characteristics namely, farm size, livestock, family size, and high monthly income of household, were significantly associated with interpersonal conflicts. The study concludes important policy implications.},
}
@article {pmid32303671,
year = {2020},
author = {Huang, C and Shi, G},
title = {Climate Change to Blame in Severe Oral Corticosteroid-Dependent Asthma? A Case Report.},
journal = {The American journal of case reports},
volume = {21},
number = {},
pages = {e921120},
doi = {10.12659/AJCR.921120},
pmid = {32303671},
issn = {1941-5923},
abstract = {BACKGROUND Despite the availability of inhaled corticosteroid and the development of various biological treatment agents, severe asthma patients are still at high risk of recurrent and life-threatening exacerbations, which results in morbidity and mortality. In addition to treatment response variability, incorrect inhaler technique, poor adherence, and major psychological problems, environmental factors such as climate change also are contributory factors for worsen symptoms of asthma and acute exacerbation. We present here, a case of a 63-year-old female patient who had oral corticosteroid-dependent severe asthma and recurrent attacks in spring and autumn. CASE REPORT A 63-year-old Chinese female was diagnosed with asthma when she was 3 years old. During 2007-2011, she was admitted to the hospital once a year because of asthma exacerbation; she was on a regular treatment regimen of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) plus long-acting beta-agonist (LABA). In October 2018, she was admitted to our Department for aggravating symptoms due to &quot;sudden climate change&quot;. She was discharged on tapering doses of oral methylprednisolone from 32 mg once daily, but the reduced methylprednisolone resulted in aggravation of wheezing. However, when the weather warmed up, her symptoms were relieved, and she stopped taking methylprednisolone (after the tapering). CONCLUSIONS This study suggests an association between the common causes of weather changes and acute severe asthma exacerbation. Patients and clinicians should be aware that keeping warm and avoiding exposure to cold air and airborne allergens might reduce the frequency of asthma exacerbations.},
}
@article {pmid32302868,
year = {2020},
author = {Huber, V and Krummenauer, L and Peña-Ortiz, C and Lange, S and Gasparrini, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Garcia-Herrera, R and Frieler, K},
title = {Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {186},
number = {},
pages = {109447},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447},
pmid = {32302868},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.<br><br>METHODS: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.<br><br>RESULTS: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 °C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 °C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 °C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 °C, compared to today's warming level of 1 °C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 °C versus 1 °C of GMT rise.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.},
}
@article {pmid32302051,
year = {2020},
author = {Rushing, CS and Rubenstein, M and Lyons, JE and Runge, MC},
title = {Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: a case study using federal land acquisition in the United States.},
journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/brv.12602},
pmid = {32302051},
issn = {1469-185X},
abstract = {In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non-governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision-making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: (i) articulating alternative hypotheses; (ii) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; (iii) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision-making; and (iv) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high-uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management-relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management.},
}
@article {pmid32301569,
year = {2020},
author = {Albrich, K and Rammer, W and Seidl, R},
title = {Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15118},
pmid = {32301569},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remains incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30 % reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.},
}
@article {pmid32298879,
year = {2020},
author = {Simmons, AT and Cowie, AL and Brock, PM},
title = {Climate change mitigation for Australian wheat production.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {725},
number = {},
pages = {138260},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138260},
pmid = {32298879},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change threatens humanity yet the provision of food that supports humanity is a major source of greenhouse gases, which exacerbates that threatening process. Developing strategies to reduce the emissions associated with key global commodities is essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change. To date, however, there have been no studies that have estimated the potential to reduce GHG emissions associated with the production of wheat, a key global commodity, at a national scale through changes to wheat production systems. Here, we assess the consequences for net GHG emissions of Australian wheat production from applying three changes to wheat production systems: increasing the rates of fertiliser N to achieve the water-limited yield potential; increasing the frequency of lime applications on acid soils; and changing a two year cropping rotation (from wheat-wheat to legume-wheat). We predict that applying these three changes across the key wheat growing regions in Australia would increase production of wheat and legumes by 17.8 and 5.3 Mt, respectively, over the two-year period. Intensifying Australian production would reduce the need to produce wheat and legumes elsewhere in the world. This would free up agricultural land at the global scale and avoid the need to convert forestland and grassland to cropping lands to meet increasing global demands for wheat. We find that applying these changes across wheat growing zones would reduce the GHGs associated with Australian wheat production by 18.4 Mt CO2-e over the two-year period. Our research supports the notion that intensification of existing agricultural production can provide climate change mitigation. The impacts of intensification on other environmental indicators also need to be considered by policy makers.},
}
@article {pmid32298349,
year = {2020},
author = {Allyn, AJ and Alexander, MA and Franklin, BS and Massiot-Granier, F and Pershing, AJ and Scott, JD and Mills, KE},
title = {Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {4},
pages = {e0231595},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0231595},
pmid = {32298349},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Species distribution shifts are a widely reported biological consequence of climate-driven warming across marine ecosystems, creating ecological and social challenges. To meet these challenges and inform management decisions, we need accurate projections of species distributions. Quantitative species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely used to make these projections, while qualitative climate change vulnerability assessments are becoming more common. We constructed SDMs, compared SDM projections to expectations from a qualitative expert climate change vulnerability assessment, and developed a novel approach for combining the two methods to project the distribution and relative biomass of 49 marine species in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem under a &quot;business as usual&quot; climate change scenario. A forecasting experiment using SDMs highlighted their ability to capture relative biomass patterns fairly well (mean Pearson's correlation coefficient between predicted and observed biomass = 0.24, range = 0-0.6) and pointed to areas needing improvement, including reducing prediction error and better capturing fine-scale spatial variability. SDM projections suggest the region will undergo considerable biological changes, especially in the Gulf of Maine, where commercially-important groundfish and traditional forage species are expected to decline as coastal fish species and warmer-water forage species historically found in the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight area increase. The SDM projections only occasionally aligned with vulnerability assessment expectations, with agreement more common for species with adult mobility and population growth rates that showed low sensitivity to climate change. Although our blended approach tried to build from the strengths of each method, it had no noticeable improvement in predictive ability over SDMs. This work rigorously evaluates the predictive ability of SDMs, quantifies expected species distribution shifts under future climate conditions, and tests a new approach for integrating SDMs and vulnerability assessments to help address the complex challenges arising from climate-driven species distribution shifts.},
}
@article {pmid32296143,
year = {2020},
author = {Peng, B and Guan, K and Tang, J and Ainsworth, EA and Asseng, S and Bernacchi, CJ and Cooper, M and Delucia, EH and Elliott, JW and Ewert, F and Grant, RF and Gustafson, DI and Hammer, GL and Jin, Z and Jones, JW and Kimm, H and Lawrence, DM and Li, Y and Lombardozzi, DL and Marshall-Colon, A and Messina, CD and Ort, DR and Schnable, JC and Vallejos, CE and Wu, A and Yin, X and Zhou, W},
title = {Towards a multiscale crop modelling framework for climate change adaptation assessment.},
journal = {Nature plants},
volume = {6},
number = {4},
pages = {338-348},
doi = {10.1038/s41477-020-0625-3},
pmid = {32296143},
issn = {2055-0278},
support = {1847334//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1852977//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1847334//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1852977//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1847334//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1852977//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1847334//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 80NSSC18K0170/NASA/NASA/United States ; 80NSSC18K0170/NASA/NASA/United States ; 80NSSC18K0170/NASA/NASA/United States ; 80NSSC18K0170/NASA/NASA/United States ; 2017-67013-26253//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-67013-26253//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-67013-26253//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; },
abstract = {Predicting the consequences of manipulating genotype (G) and agronomic management (M) on agricultural ecosystem performances under future environmental (E) conditions remains a challenge. Crop modelling has the potential to enable society to assess the efficacy of G × M technologies to mitigate and adapt crop production systems to climate change. Despite recent achievements, dedicated research to develop and improve modelling capabilities from gene to global scales is needed to provide guidance on designing G × M adaptation strategies with full consideration of their impacts on both crop productivity and ecosystem sustainability under varying climatic conditions. Opportunities to advance the multiscale crop modelling framework include representing crop genetic traits, interfacing crop models with large-scale models, improving the representation of physiological responses to climate change and management practices, closing data gaps and harnessing multisource data to improve model predictability and enable identification of emergent relationships. A fundamental challenge in multiscale prediction is the balance between process details required to assess the intervention and predictability of the system at the scales feasible to measure the impact. An advanced multiscale crop modelling framework will enable a gene-to-farm design of resilient and sustainable crop production systems under a changing climate at regional-to-global scales.},
}
@article {pmid32295792,
year = {2020},
author = {Scheerens, C and Ruyssen, I and Ray, S and De Sutter, A and Vanhove, W and Bekaert, E and Mash, B and Decat, P and De Maeseneer, J},
title = {Tackling adverse health effects of climate change and migration through intersectoral capacity building in Sub-Saharan Africa.},
journal = {BJGP open},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3399/bjgpopen20X101065},
pmid = {32295792},
issn = {2398-3795},
}
@article {pmid32292221,
year = {2020},
author = {Pritchard, EC},
title = {IChemE Special Issue on Climate Change.},
journal = {Chemical engineering research &amp; design : transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.cherd.2020.04.001},
pmid = {32292221},
issn = {0263-8762},
}
@article {pmid32291288,
year = {2020},
author = {O'Connor, C and Kiely, L and O'Riordan, A and O'Connell, G and Bennett, M and O'Shea, S and Murphy, LA and Bourke, J and Murphy, M},
title = {A change of climate for climate change: the environmental benefit of specialty outreach clinics.},
journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)},
volume = {369},
number = {},
pages = {m1410},
doi = {10.1136/bmj.m1410},
pmid = {32291288},
issn = {1756-1833},
}
@article {pmid32288342,
year = {2010},
author = {Ford, JD and Berrang-Ford, L and King, M and Furgal, C},
title = {Vulnerability of Aboriginal health systems in Canada to climate change.},
journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
volume = {20},
number = {4},
pages = {668-680},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.05.003},
pmid = {32288342},
issn = {0959-3780},
abstract = {Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.},
}
@article {pmid32288341,
year = {2005},
author = {Becken, S},
title = {Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji.},
journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
volume = {15},
number = {4},
pages = {381-393},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.08.001},
pmid = {32288341},
issn = {0959-3780},
abstract = {Tourism in island states is vulnerable to climate change because it may result in detrimental changes in relation to extreme events, sea level rise, transport and communication interruption. This study analyses adaptation to climate change by tourist resorts in Fiji, as well as their potential to reduce climate change through reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Interviews, site visitations, and an accommodation survey were undertaken. Many operators already prepare for climate-related events and therefore adapt to potential impacts resulting from climate change. Reducing emissions is not important to operators; however, decreasing energy costs for economic reasons is practised. Recommendations for further initiatives are made and synergies between the adaptation and mitigation approaches are explored.},
}
@article {pmid32287413,
year = {2015},
author = {Kim, J},
title = {Comparing the economic effects of climate change and zooanthroponosis in Korea: Prerequisites for the creative economy?.},
journal = {Technological forecasting and social change},
volume = {96},
number = {},
pages = {121-129},
doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2015.02.012},
pmid = {32287413},
issn = {0040-1625},
abstract = {Societies in the 21st century require more proactive management of risks in many areas owing to the complexities people have built into socioeconomic systems, ranging from science and technology, economics, and finance to education, entertainment, and tourism infrastructure. All these systems thrive on stability, which can easily be challenged by unexpected risks. This study compares zooanthroponosis and climate change-induced sea level rise through a cost-benefit analysis in Korea. Borrowing from other methodological approaches, this study shows that the cost-benefit estimation is consistent with the existing macroeconomic speculations, which assume potential loss of GDP due to the two risks. This paper also presents a policy alternative of creating research institutions specializing in the two risks from a cost-benefit perspective as a prerequisite for the &quot;Creative Economy&quot;.},
}
@article {pmid32287395,
year = {2019},
author = {},
title = {Confronting the Pandemic Superthreat of Climate Change and Urbanization.},
journal = {Orbis},
volume = {63},
number = {4},
pages = {565-581},
doi = {10.1016/j.orbis.2019.08.006},
pmid = {32287395},
issn = {0030-4387},
}
@article {pmid32288343,
year = {2019},
author = {Vu, HT and Liu, Y and Tran, DV},
title = {Nationalizing a global phenomenon: A study of how the press in 45 countries and territories portrays climate change.},
journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
volume = {58},
number = {},
pages = {101942},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101942},
pmid = {32288343},
issn = {0959-3780},
abstract = {This study investigates the news coverage of climate change in 45 different countries and territories. Using the news framing approach, this study identifies the connections between several national socioeconomic, governance, and environmental traits and the portrayals of climate change. Although climate change is a global issue that affects every country in the world, how the news media frame it varies from country to country. Such a variation is related to each country's economic development, climate severity, and governance. The findings of this study contribute to framing literature by assessing frame use in national contexts, filling in the gap in the application of this theoretical framework.},
}
@article {pmid32286277,
year = {2020},
author = {Scanes, E and Scanes, PR and Ross, PM},
title = {Climate change rapidly warms and acidifies Australian estuaries.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {1803},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15550-z},
pmid = {32286277},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide. Estuaries are diverse and important aquatic ecosystems; and yet until now we have lacked information on the response of estuaries to climate change. Here we present data from a twelve-year monitoring program, involving 6200 observations of 166 estuaries along >1100 kilometres of the Australian coastline encompassing all estuary morphologies. Estuary temperatures increased by 2.16 °C on average over 12 years, at a rate of 0.2 °C year-1, with waters acidifying at a rate of 0.09 pH units and freshening at 0.086 PSU year-1. The response of estuaries to climate change is dependent on their morphology. Lagoons and rivers are warming and acidifying at the fastest rate because of shallow average depths and limited oceanic exchange. The changes measured are an order of magnitude faster than predicted by global ocean and atmospheric models, indicating that existing global models may not be useful to predict change in estuaries.},
}
@article {pmid32286257,
year = {2020},
author = {Wei, YM and Han, R and Wang, C and Yu, B and Liang, QM and Yuan, XC and Chang, J and Zhao, Q and Liao, H and Tang, B and Yan, J and Cheng, L and Yang, Z},
title = {Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {1624},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15453-z},
pmid = {32286257},
issn = {2041-1723},
support = {National Key R&amp;D Program of China (2016YFA0602603)//Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology)/ ; 71521002//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 71822401//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 71603020//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; JQ19035//Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality (Beijing Natural Science Foundation)/ ; },
abstract = {A strategy that informs on countries' potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the current emissions reduction efforts, the whole world would experience a washout of benefit, amounting to almost 126.68-616.12 trillion dollars until 2100 compared to 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C commensurate action. If countries are even unable to implement their current NDCs, the whole world would lose more benefit, almost 149.78-791.98 trillion dollars until 2100. On the contrary, all countries will be able to have a significant positive cumulative net income before 2100 if they follow the self-preservation strategy.},
}
@article {pmid32285562,
year = {2020},
author = {Matz, MV and Treml, EA and Haller, BC},
title = {Estimating the potential for coral adaptation to global warming across the Indo-West Pacific.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15060},
pmid = {32285562},
issn = {1365-2486},
support = {OCE-1737312//National Science Foundation/ ; //U.S. Navy/ ; //Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office/ ; },
abstract = {The potential of reef-building corals to adapt to increasing sea-surface temperatures is often debated but has rarely been comprehensively modeled on a region-wide scale. We used individual-based simulations to model adaptation to warming in a coral metapopulation comprising 680 reefs and representing the whole of the Central Indo-West Pacific. Encouragingly, some reefs-most notably Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, New Caledonia and the southern half of the Great Barrier Reef-exhibited high capacity for adaptation and, in our model, maintained coral cover even under a rapid &quot;business-as-usual&quot; warming scenario throughout the modeled period (200 years). Higher resilience of these reefs was observed under all tested parameter settings except the models prohibiting selection and/or migration during warming. At the same time, the majority of reefs in the region tended to collapse within the first 100 years of warming. The adaptive potential (odds of maintaining high coral cover) of a given reef could be predicted based on two metrics: the reef's present-day temperature, and the proportion of recruits immigrating from warmer locations. The latter metric explains the most variation in adaptive potential, and significantly correlates with actual coral cover changes observed throughout the region between the 1970s and the early 2000s. These findings will help prioritize coral conservation efforts and plan assisted gene flow interventions to boost the adaptive potential of specific coral populations.},
}
@article {pmid32284814,
year = {2020},
author = {Melore, TW and Nel, V},
title = {Resilience of informal settlements to climate change in the mountainous areas of Konso, Ethiopia and QwaQwa, South Africa.},
journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)},
volume = {12},
number = {1},
pages = {778},
doi = {10.4102/jamba.v12i1.778},
pmid = {32284814},
issn = {1996-1421},
abstract = {Managing change is essential for human survival; thus, the importance of adapting to climate change has been increasingly recognised by researchers and governments alike. This is reflected in the growing literature on climate change and the imperative for action including building resilience in our socio-ecological systems. Despite the large body of research that now exists, few studies have considered the resilience of informal rural or peri-urban settlements in mountainous regions. This article considered the resilience of two rural settlements in mountainous areas, namely Konso, Ethiopia, and QwaQwa, South Africa, to the influences of climate change based on the assets available to them. The authors obtained the local communities' perception of their risks throsugh interviews with community leaders and a survey of 384 residents, divided equally between each settlement. Furthermore, the resilience of each community was assessed on the basis of their environmental, social, economic, human, institutional and physical capitals using a climate change resilience indicator. The findings showed that both communities faced major challenges because of climate change, particularly from drought and poverty. We found that both communities retained some forms of indigenous knowledge, but its greater application in Konso appeared to improve resilience to a greater extent than QwaQwa, where it played a lesser role and the community was more dependent on the government. However, indigenous knowledge alone is not sufficient to support these communities in the long term, given the growing aridity of the regions, and other approaches are also necessary, including government support, to enhance and grow their capitals.},
}
@article {pmid32284416,
year = {2020},
author = {Rockman, M and Hritz, C},
title = {Expanding use of archaeology in climate change response by changing its social environment.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1914213117},
pmid = {32284416},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Climate science has outlined targets for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions necessary to provide a substantial chance of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change on both natural and human systems. How to reach those targets, however, requires balancing physical realities of the natural environment with the complexity of the human social environment, including histories, cultures, and values. Archaeology is the study of interactions of natural and social environments through time and across space. As well, the field of cultural resources management, which includes archaeology, regularly engages with values such as site significance and allocation of funding that the modern social environment ascribes to its own history. Through these two approaches, archaeology has potential to provide both data for and methods of addressing challenges the global community faces through climate change. To date, however, archaeology and related areas of cultural heritage have had relatively little role in the global climate response. Here, we assess the social environment of archaeology and climate change and resulting structural barriers that have limited use of archaeology in and for climate change with a case study of the US federal government. On this basis, we provide recommendations to the fields of archaeology and climate response about how to more fully realize the multiple potential uses of archaeology for the challenges of climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32284415,
year = {2020},
author = {Dawson, T and Hambly, J and Kelley, A and Lees, W and Miller, S},
title = {Coastal heritage, global climate change, public engagement, and citizen science.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1912246117},
pmid = {32284415},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Climate change is threatening an uncalculated number of archaeological sites globally, totaling perhaps hundreds of thousands of culturally and paleoenvironmentally significant resources. As with all archaeological sites, they provide evidence of humanity's past and help us understand our place in the present world. Coastal sites, clustered at the water's edge, are already experiencing some of the most dramatic damage due to anthropogenic climate change, and the situation is predicted to worsen in the future. In the face of catastrophic loss, organizations around the world are developing new ways of working with this threatened coastal resource. This paper uses three examples from Scotland, Florida, and Maine to highlight how new partnerships and citizen science approaches are building communities of practice to better manage threatened coastal heritage. It compares methods on either side of the Atlantic and highlights challenges and solutions. The approaches are applicable to the increasing number of heritage sites everywhere at risk from climate change; the study of coastal sites thus helps society prepare for climate change impacts to heritage worldwide.},
}
@article {pmid32284400,
year = {2020},
author = {Douglass, K and Cooper, J},
title = {Archaeology, environmental justice, and climate change on islands of the Caribbean and southwestern Indian Ocean.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1914211117},
pmid = {32284400},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Climate change impacts island communities all over the world. Sea-level rise, an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and changes in distribution and health of marine organisms are among the most significant processes affecting island communities worldwide. On islands of the Caribbean and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), however, today's climate change impacts are magnified by historical environmental injustice and colonial legacies, which have heightened the vulnerability of human and other biotic communities. For some islands, archaeological and paleoecological research offers an important record of precolonial climate change and its interplay with human lives and landscapes. The archaeological record suggests strategies and mechanisms that can inform discussions of resilience in the face of climate change. We detail climate-related challenges facing island Caribbean and SWIO communities using archaeological and paleoecological evidence for past climate change and human response and argue that these cannot be successfully addressed without an understanding of the processes that have, over time, disrupted livelihoods, reshaped land- and seascapes, threatened intergenerational ecological knowledge transfer, and led to increased inequality and climate vulnerability.},
}
@article {pmid32281711,
year = {2020},
author = {Rees, G and Hofgaard, A and Boudreau, S and Cairns, D and Harper, K and Mamet, S and Mathisen, I and Swirad, Z and Tutubalina, O},
title = {Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15113},
pmid = {32281711},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterised by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviour, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/yr.) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/yr.). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104 m/yr.) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradicts equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrants caution when assessing global change related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.},
}
@article {pmid32281209,
year = {2020},
author = {Liu, B and Gao, X and Zheng, K and Ma, J and Jiao, Z and Xiao, J and Wang, H},
title = {The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus in China under climate change scenarios: An ecological niche modelling approach.},
journal = {Pest management science},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1002/ps.5861},
pmid = {32281209},
issn = {1526-4998},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Intense studies have been carried out on the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases and vectors. Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus are two medically concerned mosquito species in temperate and tropical areas, which serve as important disease-transmitting pests of a variety of diseases. The ongoing geographically expansion of these mosquitoes has brought an increasing threat to public health.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on mosquito occurrence records and high-resolution environmental layers, an ecological niche model was established to model their current and future potential distribution in China. Our model showed that the current suitable area for Cx. p. pallens is distributed in the central, eastern and northern parts of China, while Cx. p. quinquefasciatus is distributed in vast areas in southern China. Under future climate change scenarios, both species were predicted to expand their range to varying degrees and RCP 8.5 provides the largest expansion. Northward core shifts will occur in ranges of both species. Environmental variables which have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes were also revealed by our model.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Severe habitat expansion of vectors is likely to occur in the future 21st century. Our models mapped the high-risk areas and risk factors which needs to be paid attention. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological surveys and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid32280366,
year = {2020},
author = {Neumann, JE and Willwerth, J and Martinich, J and McFarland, J and Sarofim, MC and Yohe, G},
title = {Climate damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change in the United States.},
journal = {Review of environmental economics and policy},
volume = {14},
number = {1},
pages = {25-43},
doi = {10.1093/reep/rez021},
pmid = {32280366},
issn = {1750-6824},
}
@article {pmid32277350,
year = {2020},
author = {Bakare, AG and Kour, G and Akter, M and Iji, PA},
title = {Impact of climate change on sustainable livestock production and existence of wildlife and marine species in the South Pacific island countries: a review.},
journal = {International journal of biometeorology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01902-3},
pmid = {32277350},
issn = {1432-1254},
abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to humanity by intensifying multiple hazards. South Pacific Island countries (SPICs) are affected and face a dire challenge to survival. Sea level rise is reducing the already limited land for human and animal habitation. Tropical cyclones and droughts are having devastating effects on the lives of humans and animals. Tropical cyclone Winston, for example, destroyed infrastructure for humans and animals in some parts of Fiji, and infectious diseases are spreading to regions where they are not commonly seen following cyclones and floods. Likewise, climate change is making droughts worse. Droughts are destroying crops and pasturelands and making freshwater unavailable for human and animal populations in the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. There is an urgent need to ascertain the best approaches to tackle the events, which are already happening. Short-term changes can be managed at local levels through public awareness campaigns, understanding the weather patterns to prepare for disasters, reclaiming land, improving livestock breeds, introducing zoos and wildlife sanctuaries and inventing economically feasible technologies to harvest water. Long-term solutions depend on the implementation of international agreements, international aid and collective effort.},
}
@article {pmid32275738,
year = {2020},
author = {Naccarella, A and Morgan, JW and Cutler, SC and Venn, SE},
title = {Alpine treeline ecotone stasis in the face of recent climate change and disturbance by fire.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {4},
pages = {e0231339},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0231339},
pmid = {32275738},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {How species respond to climate change will depend on biological characteristics, species physiological limits, traits (such as dispersal), and interactions with disturbance. We examine multi-decadal shifts in the distribution of trees at the alpine treeline in response to regional warming and repeated disturbance by fire in the Victorian Alps, south-east Australia. Alpine treelines are composed of Eucalyptus pauciflora subsp. niphophila (Snow Gum, Myrtaceae) species. The location and basal girth of all trees and saplings were recorded across treelines at four mountains in 2002 and 2018. We quantify changes in treeline position (sapling recruitment above treeline) over time in relation to warming and disturbance by fire, and examine changes in stand structure below treeline (stand density, size class analyses). Short-distance advance of the treeline occurred between 2002 and 2018, but was largely restricted to areas that were unburned during this period. No saplings were seen above treeline after two fires, despite evidence that saplings were common pre-fire. Below treeline, subalpine woodland stands were largely resilient to fire; trees resprouted from lignotubers. However, small trees were reduced in number in woodlands when burned twice within a decade. Population dynamics at the alpine treeline were responsive to recent climate change, but other factors (e.g. disturbance) are crucial to understand recruitment trends. Establishment of saplings above treeline was largely restricted to unburned areas. These results indicate fire is a strong demographic filter on treeline dynamics; there is a clear need to frame alpine treeline establishment processes beyond just being a response to climate warming. Long lag periods in treeline change may be expected where recurrent disturbance is a feature of the landscape.},
}
@article {pmid32274060,
year = {2020},
author = {Chan, KYK and Tong, CSD},
title = {Temporal variability modulates pH impact on larval sea urchin development: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change.},
journal = {Conservation physiology},
volume = {8},
number = {1},
pages = {coaa008},
doi = {10.1093/conphys/coaa008},
pmid = {32274060},
issn = {2051-1434},
abstract = {Coastal organisms reside in highly dynamic habitats. Global climate change is expected to alter not only the mean of the physical conditions experienced but also the frequencies and/or the magnitude of fluctuations of environmental factors. Understanding responses in an ecologically relevant context is essential for formulating management strategies. In particular, there are increasing suggestions that exposure to fluctuations could alleviate the impact of climate change-related stressors by selecting for plasticity that may help acclimatization to future conditions. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of fluctuations alone is sufficient to confer such effects or whether the pattern of the fluctuations matters. Therefore, we investigated the role of frequency and initial conditions of the fluctuations on performance by exposing larval sea urchin Heliocidaris crassispina to either constant or fluctuating pH. Reduced pH alone (pH 7.3 vs 8.0) did not affect larval mortality but reduced the growth of larval arms in the static pH treatments. Changes in morphology could affect the swimming mechanics for these small organisms, and geometric morphometric analysis further suggested an overall shape change such that acidified larvae had more U-shaped bodies and shorter arms, which would help maintain stability in moving water. The relative negative impact of lower pH, computed as log response ratio, on larval arm development was smaller when larvae were exposed to pH fluctuations, especially when the change was less frequent (48- vs 24-h cycle). Furthermore, larvae experiencing an initial pH drop, i.e. those where the cycle started at pH 8.0, were more negatively impacted compared with those kept at an initial pH of 7.3 before the cycling started. Our observations suggest that larval responses to climate change stress could not be easily predicted from mean conditions. Instead, to better predict organismal performance in the future ocean, monitoring and investigation of the role of real-time environmental fluctuations along the dispersive pathway is key.},
}
@article {pmid32274006,
year = {2020},
author = {Stewart-Sinclair, PJ and Last, KS and Payne, BL and Wilding, TA},
title = {A global assessment of the vulnerability of shellfish aquaculture to climate change and ocean acidification.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {7},
pages = {3518-3534},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.6149},
pmid = {32274006},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Human-induced climate change and ocean acidification (CC-OA) is changing the physical and biological processes occurring within the marine environment, with poorly understood implications for marine life. Within the aquaculture sector, molluskan culture is a relatively benign method of producing a high-quality, healthy, and sustainable protein source for the expanding human population. We modeled the vulnerability of global bivalve mariculture to impacts of CC-OA over the period 2020-2100, under RCP8.5. Vulnerability, assessed at the national level, was dependent on CC-OA-related exposure, taxon-specific sensitivity and adaptive capacity in the sector. Exposure risk increased over time from 2020 to 2100, with ten nations predicted to experience very high exposure to CC-OA in at least one decade during the period 2020-2100. Predicted high sensitivity in developing countries resulted, primarily, from the cultivation of species that have a narrow habitat tolerance, while in some European nations (France, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) high sensitivity was attributable to the relatively high economic value of the shellfish production sector. Predicted adaptive capacity was low in developing countries primarily due to governance issues, while in some developed countries (Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) it was linked to limited species diversity in the sector. Developing and least developed nations (n = 15) were predicted to have the highest overall vulnerability. Across all nations, 2060 was identified as a tipping point where predicted CC-OA will be associated with the greatest challenge to shellfish production. However, rapid declines in mollusk production are predicted to occur in the next decade for some nations, notably North Korea. Shellfish culture offers human society a low-impact source of sustainable protein. This research highlights, on a global scale, the likely extent and nature of the CC-OA-related threat to shellfish culture and this sector enabling early-stage adaption and mitigation.},
}
@article {pmid32272899,
year = {2020},
author = {Domche, GN and Valois, P and Canuel, M and Talbot, D and Tessier, M and Aenishaenslin, C and Bouchard, C and Briand, S},
title = {Telephone versus web panel National Survey for monitoring adoption of preventive behaviors to climate change in populations: a case study of Lyme disease in Québec, Canada.},
journal = {BMC medical research methodology},
volume = {20},
number = {1},
pages = {78},
doi = {10.1186/s12874-020-00958-4},
pmid = {32272899},
issn = {1471-2288},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: To monitor the adoption of climate change adaptive behaviors in the population, public health authorities have to conduct national surveys, which can help them target vulnerable subpopulations. To ensure reliable estimates of the adoption of these preventive behaviors, many data collection methods are offered by polling firms. The aim of this study was to compare a telephone survey with a web survey on Lyme disease with regard to their representativeness.<br><br>METHODS: The data comes from a cross-sectional study conducted in the Province of Québec (Canada). In total, 1003 people completed the questionnaire by telephone and 956 filled in a web questionnaire. We compared the data obtained from both survey modes with the census data in regard to various demographic characteristics. We then compared the data from both samples in terms of self-reported Lyme disease preventive behaviors and other theoretically associated constructs. We also assessed the measurement invariance (equivalence) of the index of Lyme disease preventive behaviors across the telephone and web samples.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings showed that neither the telephone nor the web panel modes of data collection can be considered more representative of the target population. The results showed that the proportion of item non-responses was significantly higher with the web questionnaire (5.6%) than with the telephone survey (1.3%), and that the magnitude of the differences between the two survey modes was nil for 19 out of the 30 items related to Lyme disease, and small for 11 of them. Results from invariance analyses confirmed the measurement invariance of an index of adaptation to Lyme disease, as well as the mean invariance across both samples.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that both samples provided similar estimates of the level of adaptation to Lyme disease preventive behaviors. In sum, the results of our study showed that neither survey mode was superior to the other. Thus, in studies where adaptation to climate change is monitored over time, using a web survey instead of a telephone survey could be more cost-effective, and researchers should consider doing so in future surveys on adaptation to climate. However, we recommend conducting a pretest study before deciding whether to use both survey modes or only one of them.},
}
@article {pmid32272663,
year = {2020},
author = {Anser, MK and Hina, T and Hameed, S and Nasir, MH and Ahmad, I and Naseer, MAUR},
title = {Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {7},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17072522},
pmid = {32272663},
issn = {1660-4601},
abstract = {There are numerous anticipated effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in the developing and the developed world. Pakistan is among the top ten most prone nations to CC in the world. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the economic impacts of CC on the agricultural production system and to quantify the impacts of suggested adaptation strategies at the farm level. The study was conducted in the Punjab province's rice-wheat cropping system. For this purpose, climate modeling was carried out by using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and five global circulation models (GCMs). The crop modeling was carried out by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation models (CSMs), which were tested on the cross-sectional data of 217 farm households collected from the seven strata in the study area. The socio-economic impacts were calculated using the Multidimensional Impact Assessment Tradeoff Analysis Model (TOA-MD). The results revealed that CC's net economic impact using both RCPs and CSMs was negative. In both CSMs, the poverty status was higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. The adaptation package showed positive results in poverty reduction and improvement in the livelihood conditions of the agricultural households. The adoption rate for DSSAT was about 78%, and for APSIM, it was about 68%. The adaptation benefits observed in DSSAT were higher than in APSIM. The results showed that the suggested adaptations could have a significant impact on the resilience of the atmospheric changes. Therefore, without these adaptation measures, i.e., increase in sowing density, improved cultivars, increase in nitrogen use, and fertigation, there would be negative impacts of CC that would capitalize on livelihood and food security in the study area.},
}
@article {pmid32269501,
year = {2017},
author = {Lorenz, S and Dessai, S and Forster, PM and Paavola, J},
title = {Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany.},
journal = {Regional environmental change},
volume = {17},
number = {2},
pages = {425-435},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-016-1030-3},
pmid = {32269501},
issn = {1436-3798},
abstract = {Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.},
}
@article {pmid32270688,
year = {2020},
author = {Agrimonti, C and Lauro, M and Visioli, G},
title = {Smart agriculture for food quality: facing climate change in the 21st century.},
journal = {Critical reviews in food science and nutrition},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {1-11},
doi = {10.1080/10408398.2020.1749555},
pmid = {32270688},
issn = {1549-7852},
abstract = {Climate change, with increasing temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, constitutes a severe threat to the environment and all living organisms. In particular, numerous studies suggest severe consequences for the health of crop plants, affecting both the productivity and quality of raw material destined to the food industry. Of particular concern is the reduction of proteins and essential micronutrients as iron and zinc in crops. Fighting this alarming trends is the challenge of Climate-Smart Agriculture with the double goal of reducing environmental impacts (use of pesticides, nitrogen and phosphorus leaching, soil erosion, water depletion and contamination) and improving raw material and consequently food quality. Organic farming, biofertilizers and to a lesser extent nano-carriers, improve the antioxidant properties of fruits, but the data about proteins and micronutrients are rather contradictory. On the other hand, advanced devices and Precision Agriculture allow the cultivations to be more profitable, efficient, contributing more and more to reduce pest diseases and to increase the quality of agricultural products and food safety. Thus, nowadays adoption of technologies applied to sustainable farming systems is a challenging and dynamic issue for facing negative trends due to environmental impacts and climate changes.},
}
@article {pmid32270268,
year = {2020},
author = {Keret, NM and Mutanen, MJ and Orell, MI and Itämies, JH and Välimäki, PM},
title = {Climate change-driven elevational changes among boreal nocturnal moths.},
journal = {Oecologia},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00442-020-04632-w},
pmid = {32270268},
issn = {1432-1939},
support = {258638//Academy of Finland/ ; 277984//Academy of Finland/ ; },
abstract = {Climate change has shifted geographical ranges of species northwards or to higher altitudes on elevational gradients. These changes have been associated with increases in ambient temperatures. For ectotherms in seasonal environments, however, life history theory relies largely on the length of summer, which varies somewhat independently of ambient temperature per se. Extension of summer reduces seasonal time constraints and enables species to establish in new areas as a result of over-wintering stage reaching in due time. The reduction of time constraints is also predicted to prolong organisms' breeding season when reproductive potential is under selection. We studied temporal change in the summer length and its effect on species' performance by combining long-term data on the occurrence and abundance of nocturnal moths with weather conditions in a boreal location at Värriötunturi fell in NE Finland. We found that summers have lengthened on average 5 days per decade from the late 1970s, profoundly due to increasing delays in the onset of winters. Moth abundance increased with increasing season length a year before. Most of the species occurrences expanded upwards in elevation. Moth communities in low elevation pine heath forest and middle elevation mountain birch forest have become inseparable. Yet, the flight periods have remained unchanged, probably due to unpredictable variation in proximate conditions (weather) that hinders life histories from selection. We conclude that climate change-driven changes in the season length have potential to affect species' ranges and affect the structure of insect assemblages, which may contribute to alteration of ecosystem-level processes.},
}
@article {pmid32270055,
year = {2020},
author = {Kentros, PA},
title = {Climate change and health-Stopping the merchants of doubt.},
journal = {Health science reports},
volume = {3},
number = {2},
pages = {e150},
doi = {10.1002/hsr2.150},
pmid = {32270055},
issn = {2398-8835},
}
@article {pmid32269821,
year = {2020},
author = {Crear, DP and Brill, RW and Averilla, LML and Meakem, SC and Weng, KC},
title = {In the face of climate change and exhaustive exercise: the physiological response of an important recreational fish species.},
journal = {Royal Society open science},
volume = {7},
number = {3},
pages = {200049},
doi = {10.1098/rsos.200049},
pmid = {32269821},
issn = {2054-5703},
abstract = {Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) support recreational fisheries along the US mid- and south-Atlantic states and have been recently subjected to increased fishing effort, primarily during their spawning season in coastal habitats where increasing temperatures and expanding hypoxic zones are occurring due to climate change. We therefore undertook a study to quantify the physiological abilities of cobia to withstand increases in temperature and hypoxia, including their ability to recover from exhaustive exercise. Respirometry was conducted on cobia from Chesapeake Bay to determine aerobic scope, critical oxygen saturation, ventilation volume and the time to recover from exhaustive exercise under temperature and oxygen conditions projected to be more common in inshore areas by the middle and end of this century. Cobia physiologically tolerated predicted mid- and end-of-century temperatures (28-32°C) and oxygen concentrations as low as 1.7-2.4 mg l-1. Our results indicated cobia can withstand environmental fluctuations that occur in coastal habitats and the broad environmental conditions their prey items can tolerate. However, at these high temperatures, some cobia did suffer post-exercise mortality. It appears cobia will be able to withstand near-future climate impacts in coastal habitats like Chesapeake Bay, but as conditions worsen, catch-and-release fishing may result in higher mortality than under present conditions.},
}
@article {pmid32269583,
year = {2020},
author = {Muoki, CR and Maritim, TK and Oluoch, WA and Kamunya, SM and Bore, JK},
title = {Combating Climate Change in the Kenyan Tea Industry.},
journal = {Frontiers in plant science},
volume = {11},
number = {},
pages = {339},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00339},
pmid = {32269583},
issn = {1664-462X},
abstract = {Climate change triggered by global warming poses a major threat to agricultural systems globally. This phenomenon is characterized by emergence of pests and diseases, extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, high intensity rains, hailstones and frosts, which are becoming more frequent ultimately impacting negatively to agricultural production including rain-fed tea cultivation. Kenya is predominantly an agricultural based economy, with the tea sector generating about 26% of the total export earnings and about 4% gross domestic product (GDP). In the recent years, however, the country has witnessed unstable trends in tea production associated with climate driven stresses. Toward mitigation and adaptation of climate change, multiple approaches for impact assessment, intensity prediction and adaptation have been advanced in the Kenyan tea sub-sector. Further, pressure on tea breeders to release improved climate-compatible cultivars for the rapidly deteriorating environment has resulted in the adoption of a multi-targeted approach seeking to understand the complex molecular regulatory networks associated with biotic and abiotic stresses adaptation and tolerance in tea. Genetic modeling, a powerful tool that assists in breeding process, has also been adopted for selection of tea cultivars for optimal performance under varying climatic conditions. A range of physiological and biochemical responses known to counteract the effects of environmental stresses in most plants that include lowering the rates of cellular growth and net photosynthesis, stomatal closure, and the accumulation of organic solutes such as sugar alcohols, or osmolytes have been used to support breeding programs through screening of new tea cultivars suitable for changing environment. This review describes simulation models combined with high resolution climate change scenarios required to quantify the relative importance of climate change on tea production. In addition, both biodiversity and ecosystem based approaches are described as a part of an overall adaptation strategy to mitigate adverse effects of climate change on tea in Kenya and gaps highlighted for urgent investigations.},
}
@article {pmid32269079,
year = {2020},
author = {Rosenbloom, D and Markard, J and Geels, FW and Fuenfschilling, L},
title = {Opinion: Why carbon pricing is not sufficient to mitigate climate change-and how &quot;sustainability transition policy&quot; can help.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2004093117},
pmid = {32269079},
issn = {1091-6490},
}
@article {pmid32268283,
year = {2020},
author = {Das, I and Lauria, V and Kay, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Fernandes, JA and Hazra, S},
title = {Effects of climate change and management policies on marine fisheries productivity in the north-east coast of India.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {724},
number = {},
pages = {138082},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138082},
pmid = {32268283},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 °C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions.},
}
@article {pmid32266545,
year = {2020},
author = {Ye, B and Zhang, X and Zhang, X and Zheng, C},
title = {Climate change, environmental impact, and human health.},
journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s10653-020-00554-x},
pmid = {32266545},
issn = {1573-2983},
}
@article {pmid32265296,
year = {2020},
author = {Ragavan, MI and Marcil, LE and Garg, A},
title = {Climate Change as a Social Determinant of Health.},
journal = {Pediatrics},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1542/peds.2019-3169},
pmid = {32265296},
issn = {1098-4275},
}
@article {pmid32260074,
year = {2020},
author = {Šolić, M and Šantić, D and Šestanović, S and Bojanić, N and Jozić, S and Ordulj, M and Tomaš, AV and Kušpilić, G},
title = {Changes in the Trophic Pathways within the Microbial Food Web in the Global Warming Scenario: An Experimental Study in the Adriatic Sea.},
journal = {Microorganisms},
volume = {8},
number = {4},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/microorganisms8040510},
pmid = {32260074},
issn = {2076-2607},
abstract = {A recent analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature showed significant annual warming. Since small picoplankton microorganisms play an important role in all major biogeochemical cycles, fluxes and processes occurring in marine systems (the changes at the base of the food web) as a response to human-induced temperature increase, could be amplified through the trophic chains and could also significantly affect different aspects of the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In this study, manipulative laboratory growth/grazing experiments were performed under in situ simulated conditions to study the structural and functional changes within the microbial food web after a 3 °C increase in temperature. The results show that a rise in temperature affects the changes in: (1) the growth and grazing rates of picoplankton, (2) their growth efficiency, (3) carrying capacities, (4) sensitivity of their production and grazing mortality to temperature, (5) satisfying protistan grazer carbon demands, (6) their preference in the selection of prey, (7) predator niche breadth and their overlap, (8) apparent uptake rates of nutrients, and (9) carbon biomass flow through the microbial food web. Furthermore, temperature affects the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of picoplankton in different ways.},
}
@article {pmid32256532,
year = {2015},
author = {Zhao, D and Feng, P},
title = {Temperature increase impacts personality traits in aquatic non-native species: Implications for biological invasion under climate change.},
journal = {Current zoology},
volume = {61},
number = {6},
pages = {966-971},
doi = {10.1093/czoolo/61.6.966},
pmid = {32256532},
issn = {1674-5507},
abstract = {Climate change, such as elevated temperatures, may facilitate biological invasion. Aquatic animal systems are more vulnerable to biological invasion when the temperature rises. Animal personality also plays an important role in the possibility of successful establishment of invasive species. However, it is still unclear how personality traits of invasive species will respond to global warming. This study focuses on juveniles of red swamp crawfish Procambarus clarkii, an invasive poikilothermic species with wide distribution throughout the world, and explores how slight temperature increases influence three personality traits (activity, boldness and aggressiveness) of P. clarkii. For each personality, individual variation is to be presented in condition of the same temperature. Individual personality values can significantly increase with the subtle rising of water temperature. Significant correlations among activity, boldness and aggressiveness are found at any temperature stage, and such relationships are maintained at a similar level in the face of different temperatures. It is most likely that significant expressions of personality traits may be an ecological compensation strategy to offset increased metabolic costs when faced with small temperature increases. Aggression syndromes are formed due to stable linkages between personality traits, in order to acquire allopatric resources efficiently and establish a new population in this species.},
}
@article {pmid32258277,
year = {2020},
author = {Kreft, CS and Huber, R and Wüpper, DJ and Finger, R},
title = {Data on farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation measures, individual characteristics, risk attitudes and social influences in a region of Switzerland.},
journal = {Data in brief},
volume = {30},
number = {},
pages = {105410},
doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2020.105410},
pmid = {32258277},
issn = {2352-3409},
abstract = {We present survey data on the adoption of agricultural climate change mitigation measures collected among 105 farmers in a region in Switzerland in 2019. We surveyed measures farmers use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the farm level. The list comprised 13 measures related to energy production and use, herd and manure management as well as crop production. Additionally, data was collected with regard to farmers' individual concerns and perceptions of climate change, attitudes and goals, self-efficacy and locus of control, income satisfaction and social influences. Moreover, risk preferences as well as loss aversion and probability weighting were elicited using a multiple price list. The survey data was matched with cantonal farm census data, containing information on farm size, farm type and age of the farmers.},
}
@article {pmid32251486,
year = {2020},
author = {Cong, M and Xu, Y and Tang, L and Yang, W and Jian, M},
title = {Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {4},
pages = {e0230969},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0230969},
pmid = {32251486},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation.},
}
@article {pmid32250812,
year = {2020},
author = {Wei, D and Zhao, H and Zhang, J and Qi, Y and Wang, X},
title = {Human activities alter response of alpine grasslands on Tibetan Plateau to climate change.},
journal = {Journal of environmental management},
volume = {262},
number = {},
pages = {110335},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110335},
pmid = {32250812},
issn = {1095-8630},
abstract = {The world's largest alpine pastures are found on the Tibetan Plateau, where considerable climate changes and human impacts have been experienced. Identifying their contributions to terrestrial productivity is essential if we are to adapt to, or mitigate the effects of, climate change. In this work, we begin by showing how the current warming and wetting of the climate over the last three decades has favored plant growth, as consistently captured by satellite observations and 15 models. However, the interactions between climate factors explain less of the variation in greenness observed by satellites after the 2000s, implying non-climatic influences. Next, we show that there is a significant negative impact of livestock grazing on pasture greenness, especially in peak summer. Official statistics across 72 counties verify these negative impacts, especially in poorer pastures with a higher density of grazing livestock. The variation in grazing density has a stronger negative effect on vegetation growth during the early part of the growing season after the 2000s, as compared with that before the 2000s. We found a compensatory effect of grazing and climate on alpine grassland growth, and the grazing regulates the response of vegetation greenness to climate change by modulating the dependency of vegetation growth on temperature. Thus, we suggest there is a weakening influence of climate on the greenness of alpine pastures, largely due to a strengthening influence of management, which should be considered by both the scientific community and policymakers.},
}
@article {pmid32250804,
year = {2020},
author = {Li, L and Zha, Y and Zhang, J and Li, Y and Lyu, H},
title = {Effect of terrestrial vegetation growth on climate change in China.},
journal = {Journal of environmental management},
volume = {262},
number = {},
pages = {110321},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110321},
pmid = {32250804},
issn = {1095-8630},
abstract = {Globally, some vegetation has grown significantly over the past decades, but the climate benefits remain unclear, especially in the temperate regions. Understanding the biophysical effects and identifying the potential of vegetation will help to mitigate climate change. Here, we propose a vegetation-adjusted temperature index to understand how terrestrial vegetation growth in China affects the air temperature for 2001-2013, based on satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index, near-surface air temperature (Ta) and the land surface temperature. Grassland growth and cropland growth are found to cool the Ta by -0.08 ± 0.32 °C (mean ± one standard deviation) and -0.06 ± 0.28 °C, respectively. Forest growth results in net climate warming by 0.05 ± 0.29 °C. Biophysical effects, elevation and background climate are used to explain the climate impacts of vegetation. Results show that the biophysical effects dominate the climate impact. More specifically, evapotranspiration (ET) controls the daytime climate impact, and at night, an indirect effect of albedo (the release of daytime heat storage) dominates it. Lower precipitation, temperature and elevation reinforce the warming potential. Moreover, the effects of albedo and ET on climate are nonlinear. During the day, although lower albedo absorbs more incoming radiation, it releases more extra heat per unit ET that can compensate for the increased incoming radiation. At night, the warming effect reflects the release of daytime heat storage. Overall, tropical vegetation growth (-0.04 ± 0.10 °C) and warm temperate vegetation growth (-0.08 ± 0.15 °C) achieve the climatic benefits. Overall, the method proposed contributes to quantitatively evaluate the role of afforestation plan on regional climate cooling, and provides some policy/practical implications for future afforestation projects. Future afforestation projects should carefully consider the biophysical process and background climate to mitigate climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32250799,
year = {2020},
author = {Martín-Arias, J and Martínez-Santos, P and Andreo, B},
title = {Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain.},
journal = {Journal of environmental management},
volume = {262},
number = {},
pages = {110316},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110316},
pmid = {32250799},
issn = {1095-8630},
abstract = {Groundwater is key to economic growth in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly true of areas such as southern Spain, where aquifers underpin social development by supplying water to a booming tourist industry. Intensive groundwater use raises sustainability concerns, as pumping often exceeds the long-term recharge rate. Climate change and population growth are likely to exacerbate the water supply challenge in the coming years, due to the expected decrease in rainfall and to increasing competition among users. This paper examines some of the main aquifers in the Costa del Sol region, one of Spain's leading tourist destinations, where intensive groundwater extraction has led to water table drawdowns and the desiccation of all major springs. A numerical model was developed and calibrated for the purpose of evaluating the likely evolution of the system in the future. Downscaled scenarios from global circulation models were coupled with population growth forecasts to establish a range of plausible water management scenarios. Given the relatively small size of the aquifers and the limited recharge rate, the current pumping patterns appear unsustainable. Results suggest that drawdowns in excess of 150 m could take place within the next decade, thus compromising domestic supplies.},
}
@article {pmid32247907,
year = {2020},
author = {Dahal, P and Shrestha, ML and Panthi, J and Pradhananga, D},
title = {Modeling the future impacts of climate change on water availability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {185},
number = {},
pages = {109430},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109430},
pmid = {32247907},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {It's unequivocal that the global climate is changing, including the rise in atmospheric temperature and variability in amount and pattern of precipitation, and the rate of temperature change in the Himalayan region is higher than the global average. Since precipitation and temperature are the major driving factors of water resources in the Himalayas both upstream and downstream regions, it is important to understand theimpacts of climate change in water resource availability in the future. In this study, we analyzed the historical hydro-climate data and developed a suitable ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate models for the Karnali River Basin (KRB) in western Nepal and assessed the future water availability in different climate scenarios using a semi-distributed catchment scale hydrological model the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The climate data analysis shows that the atmospheric temperature is rising throughout the basin but there is high spatial variability in precipitation trend. The historical river discharge data analysis do not show any significant trend, however, there is some inter-annual variability. Future projection shows that the annual precipitation amount will increase compared to the baseline so does the river discharge. However, this increase is not uniform for all seasons. The post-monsoon season having the lowest observed precipitation will get lesser amount of precipitation in the future and the river discharge also follows the same trend. These anomalies play a crucial role in determining the future water availability for agriculture, hydropower, ecosystem functioning and its services availability to the people living in the KRB as well as in the downstream region.},
}
@article {pmid32246848,
year = {2020},
author = {Allan, RP and Barlow, M and Byrne, MP and Cherchi, A and Douville, H and Fowler, HJ and Gan, TY and Pendergrass, AG and Rosenfeld, D and Swann, ALS and Wilcox, LJ and Zolina, O},
title = {Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change.},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.14337},
pmid = {32246848},
issn = {1749-6632},
support = {NE/N006054/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; WM140025//Royal Society/ ; 1947282//National Center for Atmospheric Research/ ; },
abstract = {Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.},
}
@article {pmid32241685,
year = {2020},
author = {Schwartz, SA},
title = {Climate Change, Covid-19, Preparedness, and Consciousness.},
journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2020.02.022},
pmid = {32241685},
issn = {1878-7541},
}
@article {pmid32240359,
year = {2020},
author = {Chitu, E and Paltineanu, C},
title = {Timing of phenological stages for apple and pear trees under climate change in a temperate-continental climate.},
journal = {International journal of biometeorology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01903-2},
pmid = {32240359},
issn = {1432-1254},
support = {Project PN-III-P1-1.2-PCCDI-2017-0721 - INTER-ASPA//Romanian Ministry of Research and Innovation/ ; },
abstract = {The study examines the consequences of climate change in Malus (apple) and Pyrus (pear) on four phenological stages: bud swelling (code 51 BBCH Monograph), budburst (code 53), beginning of flowering (code 61), and end of flowering (code 69) in the temperate-continental climate of southern Romania. The hypothesis tested is how much the onset dates (TOD) of phenology stages moved earlier due to climate change. Weather and phenological data were collected from 1969 to 2018 and were statistically processed. There was an increase in air temperature (T) during the first 5 months in the year, with a significant rise in March and April; significant linear relationships show an advance in TOD with the years elapsed. Inverse linear relationships were found between TOD, maximum (Tmax), mean (Tmean), minimum (Tmin) temperature, and sunshine hours (Sh). The relationships between TOD and Tmax were the strongest. The early stages of flowering phenology are advancing more strongly than later flowering stages. For apple, in the last 50 years, there was an advance of 13.8 days for stage 51, 14.8 days for stage 53, 10.7 days for stage 61, and only 7.3 days for stage 69; for pear trees, the advance was lower: 10 days for stage 51, 9 days for stage 53, 6.7 days for stage 61, and only 2.1 days for stage 69. These findings, which might be extrapolated to similar environments, have important consequences in fruit growing, like the occurrence of climate accidents due to late frost, insect pollination, and application of pesticides and irrigation water.},
}
@article {pmid32240191,
year = {2020},
author = {Hashida, Y and Withey, J and Lewis, DJ and Newman, T and Kline, JD},
title = {Anticipating changes in wildlife habitat induced by private forest owners' adaptation to climate change and carbon policy.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {4},
pages = {e0230525},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0230525},
pmid = {32240191},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Conserving forests to provide ecosystem services and biodiversity will be a key environmental challenge as society strives to adapt to climate change. The ecosystem services and biodiversity that forests provide will be influenced by the behaviors of numerous individual private landowners as they alter their use of forests in response to climate change and any future carbon pricing policies that emerge. We evaluated the impact of forest landowners' likely adaptation behaviors on potential habitat for 35 terrestrial, forest-dependent vertebrates across three U.S. Pacific states. In particular, we couple a previously estimated empirical-economic model of forest management with spatially explicit species' range and habitat associations to quantify the effects of adaptation to climate change and carbon pricing on potential habitat for our focal species (amphibians, birds and mammals) drawn from state agency lists of species of conservation concern. We show that both climate change and carbon pricing policies would likely encourage adaptation away from currently prevalent coniferous forest types, such as Douglas-fir, largely through harvest and planting decisions. This would reduce potential habitat for a majority of the focal species we studied across all three vertebrate taxa. The total anticipated habitat loss for amphibians, birds and mammals considered species of state concern would exceed total habitat gained, and the net loss in habitat per decade would accelerate over time. Carbon payments to forest landowners likely would lead to unintended localized habitat losses especially in Douglas-fir dominant forest types, and encourage more hardwoods on private forest lands. Our study highlights potential tradeoffs that could arise from pricing one ecosystem service (e.g., carbon) while leaving others (e.g., wildlife habitat) unpriced. Our study demonstrates the importance of anticipating potential changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity resulting from forest landowners' climate adaptation behavior and accounting for a broader set of environmental benefits and costs when designing policies to address climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32237788,
year = {2020},
author = {Ozarslan, R and Sekerci, Y},
title = {Fractional order oxygen-plankton system under climate change.},
journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)},
volume = {30},
number = {3},
pages = {033131},
doi = {10.1063/1.5129766},
pmid = {32237788},
issn = {1089-7682},
abstract = {Global climate change affects marine species including phytoplankton, which constitute the base of the marine food web, by changing the primary productivity. Global warming affects the ocean surface temperature, in turn leading to a change in the oxygen production of phytoplankton. In this work, the fractional oxygen-phytoplankton-zooplankton mathematical model is considered by the Caputo fractional operator. The production rate of photosynthesis is determined by a temperature function. The model is, therefore, based on the idea that the rate of photosynthesis changes due to the impact of global warming, while phytoplankton oxygen production increases and decreases. We analyze the model with the Caputo fractional derivative differently from the classical case of the model and we compare the results with the integer order derivative when α tends to 1. Existence and uniqueness properties of the oxygen-plankton model have been proved by means of a local Lipschitz condition. It was shown that the species are more sustainable than its corresponding classical case in the Caputo model. Our results show that the effect of global warming on the oxygen production rate has been observed to be quite severe, resulting in oxygen depletion and plankton extinction.},
}
@article {pmid32235149,
year = {2020},
author = {Leddin, D and Macrae, F},
title = {Climate Change: Implications for Gastrointestinal Health and Disease.},
journal = {Journal of clinical gastroenterology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1097/MCG.0000000000001336},
pmid = {32235149},
issn = {1539-2031},
abstract = {The earth's atmosphere has warmed by about 1°C compared with preindustrial temperature. This is producing changes in the earth's climate and weather which have implications for gastrointestinal health and disease. Climate change will exacerbate current challenges with regard to provision of adequate nutrition and access to clean water. An increase in high rainfall events, flooding and droughts will be associated with an increase in enteric infections and hepatitis. Changes in habitat may result in altered distribution of gastrointestinal illness such as Vibrio cholera. Climate change will force migration between countries, and within countries, and will drive relocation from rural to urban areas, further straining sanitation and clean water provision. The infrastructure required to the delivery of gastrointestinal care is vulnerable to extreme weather events which will become more frequent. The Gastroenterology community needs to join the debate on climate change by organizing, educating, advocating, and supporting our political leaders as they face the enormous challenges posed by global warming.},
}
@article {pmid32229547,
year = {2020},
author = {Haines, A and Scheelbeek, P},
title = {The health case for urgent action on climate change.},
journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)},
volume = {368},
number = {},
pages = {m1103},
doi = {10.1136/bmj.m1103},
pmid = {32229547},
issn = {1756-1833},
}
@article {pmid32229481,
year = {2020},
author = {Harmer, A and Eder, B and Gepp, S and Leetz, A and van de Pas, R},
title = {WHO should declare climate change a public health emergency.},
journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)},
volume = {368},
number = {},
pages = {m797},
doi = {10.1136/bmj.m797},
pmid = {32229481},
issn = {1756-1833},
}
@article {pmid32228798,
year = {2020},
author = {Bryson, JM and Bishop-Williams, KE and Berrang-Ford, L and Nunez, EC and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Harper, SL and Indigenous Health Adaptation To Climate Change Research Team, },
title = {Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Context of Climate Change in East Africa: A Systematic Scoping Review.},
journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.4269/ajtmh.19-0380},
pmid = {32228798},
issn = {1476-1645},
abstract = {East Africa is highly affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), which are projected to be exacerbated by climate change. Consequently, understanding what research has been conducted and what knowledge gaps remain regarding NTDs and climate change is crucial to informing public health interventions and climate change adaptation. We conducted a systematic scoping review to describe the extent, range, and nature of publications examining relationships between NTDs and climatic factors in East Africa. We collated all relevant English and French publications indexed in PubMed®, Web of Science™ Core Collection, and CAB Direct© databases published before 2019. Ninety-six publications were included for review. Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia had high rates of publication, whereas countries in the Western Indian Ocean region were underrepresented. Most publications focused on schistosomiasis (n = 28, 29.2%), soil-transmitted helminthiases (n = 16, 16.7%), or human African trypanosomiasis (n = 14, 14.6%). Precipitation (n = 91, 94.8%) and temperature (n = 54, 56.3%) were frequently investigated climatic factors, whereas consideration of droughts (n = 10, 10.4%) and floods (n = 4, 4.2%) was not prominent. Publications reporting on associations between NTDs and changing climate were increasing over time. There was a decrease in the reporting of indigeneity and age factors over time. Overall, there were substantial knowledge gaps for several countries and for many NTDs. To better understand NTDs in the context of a changing climate, it would be helpful to increase research on underrepresented diseases and regions, consider demographic and social factors in research, and characterize how these factors modify the effects of climatic variables on NTDs in East Africa.},
}
@article {pmid32223316,
year = {2020},
author = {Alahmad, B and Khraishah, H and Shakarchi, AF and Albaghdadi, M and Rajagopalan, S and Koutrakis, P and Jaffer, F},
title = {Cardiovascular Mortality and Exposure to Heat in an Inherently Hot Region: Implications for Climate Change.},
journal = {Circulation},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.119.044860},
pmid = {32223316},
issn = {1524-4539},
}
@article {pmid32223020,
year = {2020},
author = {Ma, J and Zhou, L and Foltz, GR and Qu, X and Ying, J and Tokinaga, H and Mechoso, CR and Li, J and Gu, X},
title = {Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability.},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.14335},
pmid = {32223020},
issn = {1749-6632},
abstract = {Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land-sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.},
}
@article {pmid32222925,
year = {2020},
author = {Li, Y and Li, F and Yang, F and Xie, X and Yin, L},
title = {Spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on food production: case study of Shaanxi Province, China.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08447-3},
pmid = {32222925},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {41701094//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018JQ4024//Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China/ ; },
abstract = {The climate change on the impact of grain production potential has significant regional differences. Researchers have studied the grain production potential of various crop combinations or focused on single crop types in a typical area; however, the regional differences of the climate change on the impact of grain production potential were neglected. This paper used the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ 3.0) model to focus on the analysis what is the climate change on the impact of grain production potential in different geographic units (Northern Shaanxi Plateau, Guanzhong Basin, Qinba Mountain) in Shaanxi Province of China. The case showed that the precipitation (Pre) what made changes of grain production potential was the most important factor in different geographic units. The increase of Pre had a positive impact on the grain production potential in Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. However, in Qinba Mountain, due to excessive Pre in the Qinba Mountains, the decrease of Pre had a certain positive impact on the grain production potential. The precipitation was less in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau; therefore, its major factors leading to changes of crop production were precipitation and rainfall days. The increase of the mean maximum temperature (Tmx) and the mean minimum temperature (Tmn) had a positive impact of the grain production potential in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. The higher temperature had a negative impact on the grain production potential. In Qinba Mountain, the increase of the temperature has a certain negative impact on the grain production potential. It has more influence of Tmx in the Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain rather than that in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau. Generally speaking, the major climatic factors leading grain production potential were Pre and Tmx in Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain.},
}
@article {pmid32222634,
year = {2020},
author = {Babel, MS and Shinde, VR and Sharma, D and Dang, NM},
title = {Measuring water security: A vital step for climate change adaptation.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {185},
number = {},
pages = {109400},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109400},
pmid = {32222634},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {Climate change and water are intricately linked. Water is the primary medium through which the impacts of climate change will be felt. Securing the water sector and enhancing water security is, therefore, imperative for any adaptive response to climate change. A precursor in improving water security is to first establish a mechanism to measure it. Only then can incremental and progressive actions be evaluated. This study has developed such a mechanism in the form of a water security assessment framework using an indictor-based methodology. The framework is developed for city-scale analysis because analyses at this scale is more useful in operationalizing water security enhancement. The framework has a three-layered structure comprising five dimensions (broad elements of water security), twelve indicators (areas of interest within the dimensions), and a set of potential variables that can be used to quantify the indicators. The framework has been developed to foster practical interventions for water security enhancement and not as a comparative tool for benchmarking. Hence, while the dimensions and indicators of the framework are fixed, the choice of variables is up to the city depending upon its context. This aspect of the framework, therefore, is meant to help cities introspect internally and move up the water security ladder. The framework culminates into a Water Security Index (WSI), measured on a scale from one to five. The scale is linear and hierarchical in its grade value. The framework was successfully used to assess the water security situation of Bangkok. The study also makes a case for scaling up this intervention for other major cities in Thailand, which can then help implement some of Thailand's key climate change adaptation initiatives such as the Nationally Determined Contributions and the National Climate Change Master Plan.},
}
@article {pmid32222510,
year = {2020},
author = {Valdes-Abellan, J and Pardo, MA and Jodar-Abellan, A and Pla, C and Fernandez-Mejuto, M},
title = {Climate change impact on karstic aquifer hydrodynamics in southern Europe semi-arid region using the KAGIS model.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {723},
number = {},
pages = {138110},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138110},
pmid = {32222510},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Nowadays, there are many urban settlements in arid and semiarid areas supplied by groundwater from adjacent small aquifers. Climate projections with expected decreases in averages precipitation values jointly with increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events does not show a clear pattern to how water resources in karstic aquifers are going to evolve. This paper, focused in the province of Alicante (Southeast of Spain), assesses the behaviour of a small karstic aquifer, the Mela aquifer, whose resources supply urban water consumption for close municipalities. We assess the hydrogeological response of the aquifer, through the KAGIS black-box GIS-based model, for the present climate conditions and for the long period analysing the four scenarios provided by the International Panel of Climate Change. Main results prove that, if we do not diminish the greenhouse gas emissions, the climate change impact on the hydrological response of the study aquifer shows a decrease in the flow rate from its unique spring and will be non-existent during the summer months. So, it will be necessary to design supply strategies for these municipalities and to carry out them, meeting budget restrictions and avoiding potential water shortages.},
}
@article {pmid32222010,
year = {2020},
author = {Wilson, KL and Tittensor, DP and Worm, B and Lotze, HK},
title = {Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15094},
pmid = {32222010},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here, we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed, and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32221971,
year = {2020},
author = {Enriquez-Urzelai, U and Tingley, R and Kearney, MR and Sacco, M and Palacio, AS and Tejedo, M and Nicieza, AG},
title = {The roles of acclimation and behavior in buffering climate change impacts along elevational gradients.},
journal = {The Journal of animal ecology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13222},
pmid = {32221971},
issn = {1365-2656},
abstract = {1. The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation, and behavioral thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. 2. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. 3. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs (Rana temporaria) along elevational gradients. Further, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. 4. Our analyses revealed that high elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favor more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioral adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high-elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. 5. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioral thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates.},
}
@article {pmid32220418,
year = {2020},
author = {López, MS and Santi, MF and Müller, GV and Gómez, AA and Staffolani, C and Pomares, LA},
title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Climate change communication by the local digital press in northeastern Argentina: An ethical analysis&quot; [Sci. Total Environ. 707 (2020), 1-7/135737].},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {137855},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137855},
pmid = {32220418},
issn = {1879-1026},
}
@article {pmid32220327,
year = {2020},
author = {Hastings, RA and Rutterford, LA and Freer, JJ and Collins, RA and Simpson, SD and Genner, MJ},
title = {Climate Change Drives Poleward Increases and Equatorward Declines in Marine Species.},
journal = {Current biology : CB},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2020.02.043},
pmid = {32220327},
issn = {1879-0445},
abstract = {Marine environments have increased in temperature by an average of 1°C since pre-industrial (1850) times [1]. Given that species ranges are closely allied to physiological thermal tolerances in marine organisms [2], it may therefore be expected that ocean warming would lead to abundance increases at poleward side of ranges and abundance declines toward the equator [3]. Here, we report a global analysis of abundance trends of 304 widely distributed marine species over the last century, across a range of taxonomic groups from phytoplankton to fish and marine mammals. Specifically, using a literature database, we investigate the extent that the direction and strength of long-term species abundance changes depend on the sampled location within the latitudinal range of species. Our results show that abundance increases have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the poleward side of species ranges, and abundance declines have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the equatorward side of species ranges. These data provide evidence of omnipresent large-scale changes in abundance of marine species consistent with warming over the last century and suggest that adaptation has not provided a buffer against the negative effects of warmer conditions at the equatorward extent of species ranges. On the basis of these results, we suggest that projected sea temperature increases of up to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by 2050 [4] will continue to drive latitudinal abundance shifts in marine species, including those of importance for coastal livelihoods.},
}
@article {pmid32218562,
year = {2020},
author = {Jahanzad, E and Holtz, BA and Zuber, CA and Doll, D and Brewer, KM and Hogan, S and Gaudin, ACM},
title = {Orchard recycling improves climate change adaptation and mitigation potential of almond production systems.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {3},
pages = {e0229588},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0229588},
pmid = {32218562},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {There is an urgent need to develop climate smart agroecosystems capable of mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects. In California, high commodity prices and increased frequency of drought have encouraged orchard turnover, providing an opportunity to recycle tree biomass in situ prior to replanting an orchard. Whole orchard recycling (WOR) has potential as a carbon (C) negative cultural practice to build soil C storage, soil health, and orchard productivity. We tested the potential of this practice for long term C sequestration and hypothesized that associated co-benefits to soil health will enhance sustainability and resiliency of almond orchards to water-deficit conditions. We measured soil health metrics and productivity of an almond orchard following grinding and incorporation of woody biomass vs. burning of old orchard biomass 9 years after implementation. We also conducted a deficit irrigation trial with control and deficit irrigation (-20%) treatments to quantify shifts in tree water status and resilience. Biomass recycling led to higher yields and substantial improvement in soil functioning, including nutrient content, aggregation, porosity, and water retention. This practice also sequestered significantly higher levels of C in the topsoil (+5 t ha-1) compared to burning. We measured a 20% increase in irrigation water use efficiency and improved soil and tree water status under stress, suggesting that in situ biomass recycling can be considered as a climate smart practice in California irrigated almond systems.},
}
@article {pmid32218517,
year = {2020},
author = {Pham-Duc, B and Sylvestre, F and Papa, F and Frappart, F and Bouchez, C and Crétaux, JF},
title = {The Lake Chad hydrology under current climate change.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {5498},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-62417-w},
pmid = {32218517},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Lake Chad, in the Sahelian zone of west-central Africa, provides food and water to ~50 million people and supports unique ecosystems and biodiversity. In the past decades, it became a symbol of current climate change, held up by its dramatic shrinkage in the 1980s. Despites a partial recovery in response to increased Sahelian precipitation in the 1990s, Lake Chad is still facing major threats and its contemporary variability under climate change remains highly uncertain. Here, using a new multi-satellite approach, we show that Lake Chad extent has remained stable during the last two decades, despite a slight decrease of its northern pool. Moreover, since the 2000s, groundwater, which contributes to ~70% of Lake Chad's annual water storage change, is increasing due to water supply provided by its two main tributaries. Our results indicate that in tandem with groundwater and tropical origin of water supply, over the last two decades, Lake Chad is not shrinking and recovers seasonally its surface water extent and volume. This study provides a robust regional understanding of current hydrology and changes in the Lake Chad region, giving a basis for developing future climate adaptation strategies.},
}
@article {pmid32217580,
year = {2020},
author = {Macdonald, G},
title = {Our prescription for climate change: reduce and recycle inhalers!.},
journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners},
volume = {70},
number = {693},
pages = {168},
doi = {10.3399/bjgp20X709037},
pmid = {32217580},
issn = {1478-5242},
}
@article {pmid32214561,
year = {2008},
author = {Ebi, KL},
title = {Healthy people 2100: modeling population health impacts of climate change.},
journal = {Climatic change},
volume = {88},
number = {1},
pages = {5-19},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9233-0},
pmid = {32214561},
issn = {0165-0009},
abstract = {Quantitatively estimating the potential health impacts of climate change is facilitated by multi-determinant models that integrate micro- to macro-level exposures and processes that influence disease occurrence, including the public health responses, in order to identify regions and population groups that may be more vulnerable. Although progress has been made in constructing systems-based models, considerable work is required to address key issues of quantification of the climate-health associations and the factors that affect those associations; specification of model(s) appropriate to incorporate climate change, adaptation, and mitigation policies; incorporation of thresholds; incorporation of pathways of public health development; and quantification of uncertainties.},
}
@article {pmid32214560,
year = {2015},
author = {Moser, SC and Hart, JAF},
title = {The long arm of climate change: societal teleconnections and the future of climate change impacts studies.},
journal = {Climatic change},
volume = {129},
number = {1},
pages = {13-26},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1328-z},
pmid = {32214560},
issn = {0165-0009},
abstract = {&quot;Societal teleconnections&quot; - analogous to physical teleconnections such as El Niño - are human-created linkages that link activities, trends, and disruptions across large distances, such that locations spatially separated from the locus of an event can experience a variety of impacts from it nevertheless. In the climate change context, such societal teleconnections add a layer of risk that is currently neither fully appreciated in most impacts or vulnerability assessments nor in on-the-ground adaptation planning. Conceptually, societal teleconnections arise from the interactions among actors, and the institutions that guide their actions, affecting the movement of various substances through different structures and processes. Empirically, they arise out of societal interactions, including globalization, to create, amplify, and sometimes attenuate climate change vulnerabilities and impacts in regions far from those where a climatic extreme or change occurs. This paper introduces a simple but systematic way to conceptualize societal teleconnections and then highlights and explores eight unique but interrelated types of societal teleconnections with selected examples: (1) trade and economic exchange, (2) insurance and reinsurance, (3) energy systems, (4) food systems; (5) human health, (6) population migration, (7) communication, and (8) strategic alliances and military interactions. The paper encourages further research to better understand the causal chains behind socially teleconnected impacts, and to identify ways to routinely integrate their consideration in impacts/vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to limit the risk of costly impacts.},
}
@article {pmid32215943,
year = {2020},
author = {Nikendei, C and Cranz, A and Bugaj, TJ},
title = {Two slides to make you think: 2slides4future, an initiative for teachers and lecturers advocating climate change education and teacher-learner dialogue.},
journal = {Medical education},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/medu.14081},
pmid = {32215943},
issn = {1365-2923},
}
@article {pmid32215695,
year = {2020},
author = {Feist, A and Plummer, R and Baird, J and Mitchell, SJ},
title = {Examining Collaborative Processes for Climate Change Adaptation in New Brunswick, Canada.},
journal = {Environmental management},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01284-7},
pmid = {32215695},
issn = {1432-1009},
support = {not available//SSHRC/ ; not available//SSHRC/ ; },
abstract = {Collaboration is a proposed strategy to address super wicked environmental problems, such as climate change. Yet, understanding how it works for climate change adaptation is nascent. This research aims to advance the understanding of this by a cross-case analysis of three cases in New Brunswick, Canada. We sought to illuminate the inner workings of multiparty collaboration in the context of community climate change adaptation; identify important qualities of the process and outcomes from it, and probe their relationships; and, explore how they come about in practice. A questionnaire was sent to individuals involved in cases and key informant interviews were conducted. Results reveal case-specific variations, but more importantly, common qualities and outcomes across the cases. They offer key insight into elements which may be important in collaborative settings. These are informative for influencing the uptake of collaborative strategies in climate change adaptation and offer the opportunity to better understand their functional effectiveness.},
}
@article {pmid32214252,
year = {2020},
author = {Robinson, A},
title = {A lively history of smell, practical solutions for climate change, and big cats on the prowl: Books in brief.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {579},
number = {7800},
pages = {491},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00835-6},
pmid = {32214252},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32213418,
year = {2020},
author = {Chen, B and Yu, K and Qin, Z and Liang, J and Wang, G and Huang, X and Wu, Q and Jiang, L},
title = {Dispersal, genetic variation, and symbiont interaction network of heat-tolerant endosymbiont Durusdinium trenchii: Insights into the adaptive potential of coral to climate change.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {723},
number = {},
pages = {138026},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138026},
pmid = {32213418},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Global warming has degraded coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Some corals develop thermal tolerance by associating with heat-tolerant Symbiodiniaceae. Here, we studied the mechanisms surrounding the dispersal, genetic variation and symbionts interaction of heat-tolerant Durusdinium trenchii across 13° latitudes in the South China Sea (SCS), to explore the possible mechanisms underlying these changes. Our results showed that Durusdinium trenchii are widely distributed in the seawater from the SCS. Our analyses of microsatellite loci revealed that D. trenchii has a high genetic diversity in the SCS; STRUCTURE analysis indicated that D. trenchii can be divided into four populations within the SCS; There exist positive correlations between genetic variation and geographic isolation, average sea surface temperature (SST) and variations in SST. Network modelling inferences showed that D. trenchii is a key species in the Symbiodiniaceae communities in the tropical SCS and contributes the greatest number of co-exclusion relationships. These results indicated that D. trenchii can affect the rare Symbiodiniaceae community. The long lifespan and the monsoon-driven ocean currents have shaped the wide distribution of D. trenchii. But low SST limits the ability of D. trenchii to establish stable symbioses with coral in the subtropical habitats. Geographical isolation and SST have shaped significant genetic variation of D.trenchii around the SCS. Our data reveals the biogeography and genetic population characteristics of D. trenchii in the Indo-Pacific region, and suggests that heat-tolerance and high genetic diversity of D. trenchii aid the corals with their adaptation to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32212601,
year = {2019},
author = {Doyle, P and Kelly, I and O’Neill, D},
title = {Older People: Canaries in the Coal-Mine for Health Effects of Climate Change.},
journal = {Irish medical journal},
volume = {},
number = {10},
pages = {1015},
pmid = {32212601},
issn = {0332-3102},
}
@article {pmid32211172,
year = {2020},
author = {Zhao, Z and Guo, Y and Wei, H and Ran, Q and Liu, J and Zhang, Q and Gu, W},
title = {Potential distribution of Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang and its predicted responses to climate change based on a comprehensive habitat suitability model.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {6},
pages = {3004-3016},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.6117},
pmid = {32211172},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang is a rare and endangered traditional Chinese medicinal plant. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species in the present and future in China. First, using nine different algorithms, we built an ensemble model to explore the possible impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of this species. Then, based on this model, we built a CHS model to further identify the distribution characteristics of N. incisum-suitable habitats in three time periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s) while considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for N. incisum covers approximately 83.76 × 103 km2, and these locations were concentrated in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province. In the future, the areas of suitable habitat for N. incisum would significantly decrease and would be 69.53 × 103 km2 and 60.21 × 103 km2 in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. However, the area of marginally suitable habitat would remain relatively stable. This study provides a more reliable and comprehensive method for modelling the current and future distributions of N. incisum, and it provides valuable insights for highlighting priority areas for medicinal plant conservation and resource utilization.},
}
@article {pmid32211145,
year = {2020},
author = {Denney, DA and Jameel, MI and Bemmels, JB and Rochford, ME and Anderson, JT},
title = {Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change.},
journal = {AoB PLANTS},
volume = {12},
number = {2},
pages = {plaa005},
doi = {10.1093/aobpla/plaa005},
pmid = {32211145},
issn = {2041-2851},
abstract = {Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.},
}
@article {pmid32211059,
year = {2020},
author = {Jia, KH and Zhao, W and Maier, PA and Hu, XG and Jin, Y and Zhou, SS and Jiao, SQ and El-Kassaby, YA and Wang, T and Wang, XR and Mao, JF},
title = {Landscape genomics predicts climate change-related genetic offset for the widespread Platycladus orientalis (Cupressaceae).},
journal = {Evolutionary applications},
volume = {13},
number = {4},
pages = {665-676},
doi = {10.1111/eva.12891},
pmid = {32211059},
issn = {1752-4571},
abstract = {Understanding and quantifying populations' adaptive genetic variation and their response to climate change are critical to reforestation's seed source selection, forest management decisions, and gene conservation. Landscape genomics combined with geographic and environmental information provide an opportunity to interrogate forest populations' genome-wide variation for understanding the extent to which evolutionary forces shape past and contemporary populations' genetic structure, and identify those populations that may be most at risk under future climate change. Here, we used genotyping by sequencing to generate over 11,000 high-quality variants from Platycladus orientalis range-wide collection to evaluate its diversity and to predict genetic offset under future climate scenarios. Platycladus orientalis is a widespread conifer in China with significant ecological, timber, and medicinal values. We found population structure and evidences of isolation by environment, indicative of adaptation to local conditions. Gradient forest modeling identified temperature-related variables as the most important environmental factors influencing genetic variation and predicted areas with higher risk under future climate change. This study provides an important reference for forest resource management and conservation for P. orientalis.},
}
@article {pmid32210846,
year = {2020},
author = {Cianconi, P and Betrò, S and Janiri, L},
title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review.},
journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry},
volume = {11},
number = {},
pages = {74},
doi = {10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074},
pmid = {32210846},
issn = {1664-0640},
abstract = {Background: Climate change is one of the great challenges of our time. The consequences of climate change on exposed biological subjects, as well as on vulnerable societies, are a concern for the entire scientific community. Rising temperatures, heat waves, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, fires, loss of forest, and glaciers, along with disappearance of rivers and desertification, can directly and indirectly cause human pathologies that are physical and mental. However, there is a clear lack in psychiatric studies on mental disorders linked to climate change.<br><br>Methods: Literature available on PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library until end of June 2019 were reviewed. The total number of articles and association reports was 445. From these, 163 were selected. We looked for the association between classical psychiatric disorders such as anxiety schizophrenia, mood disorder and depression, suicide, aggressive behaviors, despair for the loss of usual landscape, and phenomena related to climate change and extreme weather. Review of literature was then divided into specific areas: the course of change in mental health, temperature, water, air pollution, drought, as well as the exposure of certain groups and critical psychological adaptations.<br><br>Results: Climate change has an impact on a large part of the population, in different geographical areas and with different types of threats to public health. However, the delay in studies on climate change and mental health consequences is an important aspect. Lack of literature is perhaps due to the complexity and novelty of this issue. It has been shown that climate change acts on mental health with different timing. The phenomenology of the effects of climate change differs greatly-some mental disorders are common and others more specific in relation to atypical climatic conditions. Moreover, climate change also affects different population groups who are directly exposed and more vulnerable in their geographical conditions, as well as a lack of access to resources, information, and protection. Perhaps it is also worth underlining that in some papers the connection between climatic events and mental disorders was described through the introduction of new terms, coined only recently: ecoanxiety, ecoguilt, ecopsychology, ecological grief, solastalgia, biospheric concern, etc.<br><br>Conclusions: The effects of climate change can be direct or indirect, short-term or long-term. Acute events can act through mechanisms similar to that of traumatic stress, leading to well-understood psychopathological patterns. In addition, the consequences of exposure to extreme or prolonged weather-related events can also be delayed, encompassing disorders such as posttraumatic stress, or even transmitted to later generations.},
}
@article {pmid32210120,
year = {2020},
author = {Magaña Ugarte, R and Escudero, A and Mata, DS and Gavilán, RG},
title = {Changes in Foliar Functional Traits of S. pyrenaicus subsp. carpetanus under the Ongoing Climate Change: A Retrospective Survey.},
journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)},
volume = {9},
number = {3},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/plants9030395},
pmid = {32210120},
issn = {2223-7747},
support = {REMEDINAL-TE CM, P2018/EMT-4338//Comunidad de Madrid/ ; },
abstract = {The sensitivity of stomatal behavior and patterning (i.e., distribution, density, size) to environmental stimuli, renders them crucial for defining the physiological performance of leaves. Thus, assessing long-term modifications in stomatal traits in conserved specimens arises as a valuable eco-physiological approach to predict how the rising trend of warmer, drier summers could affect plant fitness; particularly in mountain areas already experiencing climate aggravation and lacking the related monitoring schemes like Mediterranean high-mountains. Variations in foliar and stomatal traits were studied in conserved specimens of Senecio pyrenaicus subsp. carpetanus from Sierra de Guadarrama over the past 71 years. Our findings revealed decreasing trends in leaf width, stomatal size, and increasing tendency in stomatal density, all correlated with the recent 30-year climate exacerbation in these mountains. This evidenced a positive selection favoring traits that allow safeguarding plant performance under drier, hotter weather conditions. The significant relation between stomatal traits and climatic variables upholds the role of stomatal patterning in sensing environmental cues in this species, feasibly optimizing physiological responses involved in the growth-water loss trade-off. The transition to smaller, densely packed stomata observed in recent decades could indicate local-adaptive plasticity in this species, enhancing stomatal response, as coarser environmental conditions take place in Sierra de Guadarrama.},
}
@article {pmid32209235,
year = {2020},
author = {Weiskopf, SR and Rubenstein, MA and Crozier, LG and Gaichas, S and Griffis, R and Halofsky, JE and Hyde, KJW and Morelli, TL and Morisette, JT and Muñoz, RC and Pershing, AJ and Peterson, DL and Poudel, R and Staudinger, MD and Sutton-Grier, AE and Thompson, L and Vose, J and Weltzin, JF and Whyte, KP},
title = {Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {137782},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137782},
pmid = {32209235},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.},
}
@article {pmid32208258,
year = {2020},
author = {Guevara-Ochoa, C and Medina-Sierra, A and Vives, L},
title = {Spatio-temporal effect of climate change on water balance and interactions between groundwater and surface water in plains.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {722},
number = {},
pages = {137886},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137886},
pmid = {32208258},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources in plains requires integral simulation tools that quantify topographic complexity and the strong interaction of groundwater and surface water components (GW-SW). The objective of this study is to implement a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model under climate change scenarios in order to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of water balance and GW-SW interactions for the upper creek basin of Del Azul, which is located in the center of the province of Buenos Aires. The simulation was carried out for a baseline scenario calibrated and validated for the period 2003-2015 and contrasted with two scenarios of the regional climate model CCSM4, RCP (4.5 and 8.5) simulated for the period 2020-2050. First, the annual and monthly anomalies of precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, recharge, flow, as well as the discharge, head level and reserves of groundwater are studied. Then the spatio-temporal anomalies of the GW-SW interaction were analyzed and finally wet and dry periods by means of the standardized precipitation index and the annual water balance were studied. Simulation results show that climate change will significantly alter the spatio-temporal patterns of the GW-SW interaction as well as the water balance. These showed monthly, seasonal and annual variations. They show an increase in most of the components of the water balance towards the middle of the 21st century, except soil moisture. Regarding GW-SW interactions, the average annual discharge of the aquifer to the stream is expected to increase by 5% with RCP 4.5 while it will increase 24% with RCP 8.5. The recharge from the stream to the aquifer is expected to increase by 12% with RCP 4.5 while a decrease by 5% with RCP 8.5. Concerning the SPI related to the water balance for the period 2020-2050, alternations of both the time and the length of dry and wet periods are expected for the two scenarios, with RCP 4.5 low frequency of wet episodes, but with a greater severity and permanence in time in contrast to RCP 8.5 that presents less frequency in dry periods, but with high permanence and severity. Climate change could alter groundwater mainly through changes in the recharge, leading to modify groundwater levels and this will cause GW-SW flow to be reversed in some sectors of the stream by increasing or decreasing groundwater discharge into the stream.},
}
@article {pmid32206835,
year = {2020},
author = {Akerlof, KL and Boules, C and Ban Rohring, E and Rohring, B and Kappalman, S},
title = {Governmental Communication of Climate Change Risk and Efficacy: Moving Audiences Toward &quot;Danger Control&quot;.},
journal = {Environmental management},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01283-8},
pmid = {32206835},
issn = {1432-1009},
abstract = {Public communication represents a vital civic function for governments developing climate policies, particularly with vulnerable communities under environmental justice mandates. In this study, three videos developed to support a state's climate change public engagement are used to evaluate how governmental communication using the frames of health, science, and local effects influences two theoretically important constructs, risk perception and collective efficacy. Vulnerable audiences differentiated by stress, perceived lack of control, and poor health demonstrate significant gains in collective efficacy relative to risk-&quot;danger control&quot; -after the intervention. But we find no differences between the three frames in their effects on perceptions of climate change risk and collective efficacy.},
}
@article {pmid32206368,
year = {2020},
author = {Kim, D and Lee, J},
title = {Spatial Changes in Work Capacity for Occupations Vulnerable to Heat Stress: Potential Regional Impacts From Global Climate Change.},
journal = {Safety and health at work},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {1-9},
doi = {10.1016/j.shaw.2019.10.004},
pmid = {32206368},
issn = {2093-7911},
abstract = {Background: As the impact of climate change intensifies, exposure to heat stress will grow, leading to a loss of work capacity for vulnerable occupations and affecting individual labor decisions. This study estimates the future work capacity under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario and discusses its regional impacts on the occupational structure in the Republic of Korea.<br><br>Methods: The data utilized for this study constitute the local wet bulb globe temperature from the Korea Meteorological Administration and information from the Korean Working Condition Survey from the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute of Korea. Using these data, we classify the occupations vulnerable to heat stress and estimate future changes in work capacity at the local scale, considering the occupational structure. We then identify the spatial cluster of diminishing work capacity using exploratory spatial data analysis.<br><br>Results: Our findings indicate that 52 occupations are at risk of heat stress, including machine operators and elementary laborers working in the construction, welding, metal, and mining industries. Moreover, spatial clusters with diminished work capacity appear in southwest Korea.<br><br>Conclusion: Although previous studies investigated the work capacity associated with heat stress in terms of climatic impact, this study quantifies the local impacts due to the global risk of climate change. The results suggest the need for mainstreaming an adaptation policy related to work capacity in regional development strategies.},
}
@article {pmid32205876,
year = {2020},
author = {Ivanova, M},
title = {Everyone, everywhere: the global challenge of climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {579},
number = {7800},
pages = {488-489},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00834-7},
pmid = {32205876},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32205849,
year = {2020},
author = {Vidya, PJ and Ravichandran, M and Subeesh, MP and Chatterjee, S and Nuncio, M},
title = {Author Correction: Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {5670},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-62006-x},
pmid = {32205849},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.},
}
@article {pmid32205773,
year = {2020},
author = {Dumont, C and Haase, E and Dolber, T and Lewis, J and Coverdale, J},
title = {Climate Change and Risk of Completed Suicide.},
journal = {The Journal of nervous and mental disease},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1097/NMD.0000000000001162},
pmid = {32205773},
issn = {1539-736X},
abstract = {Climate change is increasingly recognized as having multiple adverse mental health effects, many of which are just beginning to be understood. The elevated rates of suicides observed in some communities affected by climate change and rising rates of suicide in the United States as climate change intensifies have suggested the two may be associated. We searched PubMed and PsycInfo using the terms climate change and suicide, and provide here a review of the current literature on climate change and suicide that explores possible associations and methodological issues and challenges in this research.},
}
@article {pmid32204576,
year = {2020},
author = {Francisco Ribeiro, P and Camargo Rodriguez, AV},
title = {Emerging Advanced Technologies to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change in Africa.},
journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)},
volume = {9},
number = {3},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/plants9030381},
pmid = {32204576},
issn = {2223-7747},
abstract = {Agriculture remains critical to Africa's socioeconomic development, employing 65% of the work force and contributing 32% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Low productivity, which characterises food production in many Africa countries, remains a major concern. Compounded by the effects of climate change and lack of technical expertise, recent reports suggest that the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food systems in African countries may have further-reaching consequences than previously anticipated. Thus, it has become imperative that African scientists and farmers adopt new technologies which facilitate their research and provide smart agricultural solutions to mitigating current and future climate change-related challenges. Advanced technologies have been developed across the globe to facilitate adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9), synthetic biology, and genomic selection, among others, constitute examples of some of these technologies. In this work, emerging advanced technologies with the potential to effectively mitigate climate change in Africa are reviewed. The authors show how these technologies can be utilised to enhance knowledge discovery for increased production in a climate change-impacted environment. We conclude that the application of these technologies could empower African scientists to explore agricultural strategies more resilient to the effects of climate change. Additionally, we conclude that support for African scientists from the international community in various forms is necessary to help Africans avoid the full undesirable effects of climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32203354,
year = {2020},
author = {O'Meara, S},
title = {Deflecting the heat of climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00774-2},
pmid = {32203354},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32203328,
year = {2019},
author = {Tollefson, J},
title = {New York City climate-change plan proposes adding land to Manhattan.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00862-y},
pmid = {32203328},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32202817,
year = {2020},
author = {Nielsen, KS and Clayton, S and Stern, PC and Dietz, T and Capstick, S and Whitmarsh, L},
title = {How psychology can help limit climate change.},
journal = {The American psychologist},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1037/amp0000624},
pmid = {32202817},
issn = {1935-990X},
abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has encouraged psychologists to become part of the integrated scientific effort to support the achievement of climate change targets such as keeping within 1.5°C or 2°C of global warming. To date, the typical psychological approach has been to demonstrate that specific concepts and theories can predict behaviors that contribute to or mitigate climate change. Psychologists need to go further and, in particular, show that integrating psychological concepts into feasible interventions can reduce greenhouse gas emissions far more than would be achieved without such integration. While critiquing some aspects of current approaches, we describe psychological research that is pointing the way by distinguishing different types of behavior, acknowledging sociocultural context, and collaborating with other disciplines. Engaging this challenge offers psychologists new opportunities for promoting mitigation, advancing psychological understanding, and developing better interdisciplinary interactions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).},
}
@article {pmid32200732,
year = {2020},
author = {Gostimirovic, M and Novakovic, R and Rajkovic, J and Djokic, V and Terzic, D and Putnik, S and Gojkovic-Bukarica, L},
title = {The influence of climate change on human cardiovascular function.},
journal = {Archives of environmental &amp; occupational health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {1-9},
doi = {10.1080/19338244.2020.1742079},
pmid = {32200732},
issn = {2154-4700},
abstract = {Climate change is considered to have great impact on human health. The heat waves have been associated with excess morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) across various populations and geographic locations. Important role in the heat-induced cardiovascular damage has endothelial dysfunction. It has been noticed that hot weather can impair tone and structure of the blood vessels via interfering with variety of biological factors such as nitric oxide synthesize, cytokine production and systemic inflammation. Also, due to dehydration and increased blood viscosity, by promoting thrombogenesis, heat has important impact on patients with atherosclerosis. During chronic exposure to the cold or hot weather cardiovascular function can be decreased, leading to a higher risk of developing heart attack, malignant cardiac arrhythmias, thromboembolic diseases and heat-induced sepsis like shock. It has been shown that changes in the ambient temperature through increasing blood pressure, blood viscosity, and heart rate, contribute to the cardiovascular mortality. The majority of deaths due to heat waves especially affect individuals with preexisting chronic CVD. This population can experience a decline in the health status, since extreme ambient temperature affects pharmacokinetic parameters of many cardiovascular drugs. Increased mortality from ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke can also be related to extreme temperature variations. On a cellular level, higher ambient temperature can limit storage of ATP and O2increase amount of free radicals and toxic substances and induce neuronal apoptotic signal transduction, which all can lead to a stroke. Preserving cardiovascular function in context of extreme climate changing tends to be particularly challenging.},
}
@article {pmid32200301,
year = {2020},
author = {Sun, Y and Ding, J and Siemann, E and Keller, SR},
title = {Biocontrol of invasive weeds under climate change: progress, challenges and management implications.},
journal = {Current opinion in insect science},
volume = {38},
number = {},
pages = {72-78},
doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.02.003},
pmid = {32200301},
issn = {2214-5753},
abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and impact of plant invasions, creating a need for new control strategies as part of mitigation planning. The complex interactions between invasive plants and biocontrol agents have created distinct policy and management challenges, including the effectiveness and risk assessment of biocontrol under different climate change scenarios. In this brief review, we synthesize recent studies describing the potential ecological and evolutionary outcomes for biocontrol agents/candidates for plant invaders under climate change. We also discuss potential methodologies that can be used as a framework for predicting ecological and evolutionary responses of plant-natural enemy interactions under climate change, and for refining our understanding of the efficacy and risk of using biocontrol on invasive plants.},
}
@article {pmid32199384,
year = {2020},
author = {Khalsa, SDS and Smart, DR and Muhammad, S and Armstrong, CM and Sanden, BL and Houlton, BZ and Brown, PH},
title = {Intensive fertilizer use increases orchard N cycling and lowers net global warming potential.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {722},
number = {},
pages = {137889},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137889},
pmid = {32199384},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Nitrogen (N) fertilizer use has simultaneously increased global food production and N losses, resulting in degradation of water quality and climate pollution. A better understanding of N application rates and crop and environmental response is needed to optimize management of agroecosystems. Here we show an orchard agroecosystem with high N use efficiency promoted substantial gains in carbon (C) storage, thereby lowering net global warming potential (GWP). We conducted a 5-year whole-system analysis comparing reduced (224 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and intensive (309 kg N ha-1 yr-1) fertilizer N rates in a California almond orchard. The intensive rate increased net primary productivity (Mg C ha-1) and significantly increased N productivity (kg N ha-1) and net N mineralization (mg N kg-1 soil d-1). Use of 15N tracers demonstrated short and long-term mechanisms of soil N retention. These low organic matter soils (0.3-0.5%) rapidly immobilized fertilizer nitrate within 36 h of N application and 15N in tree biomass recycled back into soil organic matter over five years. Both fertilizer rates resulted in high crop and total N recovery efficiencies of 90% and 98% for the reduced rate, and 72% and 80% for the intensive rate. However, there was no difference in the proportion of N losses to N inputs due to a significant gain in soil total N (TN) in the intensive rate. Higher soil TN significantly increased net N mineralization and a larger gain in soil organic carbon (SOC) from the intensive rate offset nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, leading to significantly lower net GWP of -1.64 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 compared to -1.22 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 for the reduced rate. Our study demonstrates increased N cycling and climate mitigation from intensive fertilizer N use in this orchard agroecosystem, implying a fundamentally different result than seen in conventional annual cropping systems.},
}
@article {pmid32198930,
year = {2020},
author = {Cecchi, L and D'Amato, G and Annesi-Maesano, I},
title = {Climate change and outdoor aeroallergens related to allergy and asthma. Taking the exposome into account.},
journal = {Allergy},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/all.14286},
pmid = {32198930},
issn = {1398-9995},
}
@article {pmid32197713,
year = {2020},
author = {Kuefner, W and Hofmann, AM and Geist, J and Raeder, U},
title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Evaluating climate change impacts on mountain lakes by applying the new silicification value to paleolimnological samples&quot;[Sci. Total Environ. 715 (2020), 136913].},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {137901},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137901},
pmid = {32197713},
issn = {1879-1026},
}
@article {pmid32197010,
year = {2020},
author = {Martin, G and Reilly, KC and Gilliland, JA},
title = {Impact of awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health: a scoping review protocol.},
journal = {JBI database of systematic reviews and implementation reports},
volume = {18},
number = {3},
pages = {516-522},
doi = {10.11124/JBISRIR-D-19-00253},
pmid = {32197010},
issn = {2202-4433},
abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this scoping review is to identify and describe the existing literature on the impact of the overarching awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health and well-being.<br><br>INTRODUCTION: Children are widely acknowledged as being disproportionately at risk to the effects of climate change, yet research overlooks the impact that climate change has on their mental health. Children's overarching awareness of climate change, and its global effects, may influence their mental health and well-being.<br><br>INCLUSION CRITERIA: This review will include all research that addresses school-aged children's (aged 3-19) mental-health issues stemming from an awareness of climate change. It will not include research that examines direct impacts of climate change on children's mental health, such as trauma from a specific climate-related event.<br><br>METHODS: Searches will be conducted across eight research databases (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Embase, GreenFILE, PubMed, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus) and three unpublished/gray literature databases (ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, GreyLit.org, and OpenGrey). Data will be extracted for author(s), year of publication, country of origin, purpose, population, methodology, concepts of interest, outcomes, and key findings relating to the scoping review objectives. Findings will be presented as a narrative summary.},
}
@article {pmid32196868,
year = {2020},
author = {Filazzola, A and Matter, SF and Roland, J},
title = {Inclusion of trophic interactions increases the vulnerability of an alpine butterfly species to climate change.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15068},
pmid = {32196868},
issn = {1365-2486},
support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Killam Trusts/ ; },
abstract = {Climate change is expected to have significant and complex impacts on ecological communities. In addition to direct effects of climate on species, there can also be indirect effects through an intermediary species, such as in host-plant interactions. Indirect effects are expected to be more pronounced in alpine environments because these ecosystems are sensitive to temperature changes and there are limited areas for migration of both species (i.e. closed systems), and because of simpler trophic interactions. We tested the hypothesis that climate change will reduce the range of an alpine butterfly (Parnassius smintheus) because of indirect effects through its host plant (Sedum sp.). To test for direct and indirect effects, we used the simulations of climate change to assess the distribution of P. smintheus with and without Sedum sp. We also compared the projected ranges of P. smintheus to four other butterfly species that are found in the alpine, but that are generalists feeding on many plant genera. We found that P. smintheus gained distributional area in climate-only models, but these gains were significantly reduced with the inclusion of Sedum sp. and in dry-climate scenarios which resulted in a reduction in net area. When compared to the more generalist butterfly species, P. smintheus exhibited the largest loss in suitable habitat. Our findings support the importance of including indirect effects in modelling species distributions in response to climate change. We highlight the potentially large and still neglected impacts climate change can have on the trophic structure of communities, which can lead to significant losses of biodiversity. In the future, communities will continue to favour species that are generalists as climate change induces asynchronies in the migration of species.},
}
@article {pmid32195054,
year = {2020},
author = {Li, M and He, J and Zhao, Z and Lyu, R and Yao, M and Cheng, J and Xie, L},
title = {Predictive modelling of the distribution of Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. under climate change reveals a range expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum.},
journal = {PeerJ},
volume = {8},
number = {},
pages = {e8729},
doi = {10.7717/peerj.8729},
pmid = {32195054},
issn = {2167-8359},
abstract = {Background: The knowledge of distributional dynamics of living organisms is a prerequisite for protecting biodiversity and for the sustainable use of biotic resources. Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. is a small group of shrubby, yellow-flowered species distributed mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Plants in this section are both horticulturally and ecologically important.<br><br>Methods: Using past, present, and future environmental variables and data with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling, we evaluated the importance of the environmental variables on the section's estimated distributions, thus simulating its distributional dynamics over time. The contractions and expansions of suitable habitat between the past and future scenarios and the present were then compared.<br><br>Results and Discussion: The models revealed that the areas with high and moderate suitability currently encompass about 725,110 km2. The distribution centroid location varies between points in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia during the different scenarios. Elevation, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter were major factors determining the section's distribution. Our modeling indicated that Clematis sect. Fruticella underwent a significant range contraction during the last interglacial period, and then expanded during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to amounts like those of the present. Cold, dry, and relatively stable climate, as well as steppe or desert steppe environments may have facilitated range expansion of this cold-adapted, drought-resistant plant taxon during the LGM. Predicted future scenarios show little change in the amounts of suitable habitat for Clematis sect. Fruticella. This study aids understanding of the distributional dynamics of Clematis sect. Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas.},
}
@article {pmid32193806,
year = {2020},
author = {Fan, JL and Zeng, B and Hu, JW and Zhang, X and Wang, H},
title = {The impact of climate change on residential energy consumption in urban and rural divided southern and northern China.},
journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00430-3},
pmid = {32193806},
issn = {1573-2983},
support = {CBA2018-02MY-Fan//Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research/ ; 71874193//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71503249//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71203008//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; },
abstract = {In different regions of China, climate change has various influences on urban and rural residential energy consumption, which also shows that the research on it could be profoundly vital in order to formulate the energy-saving and emission-reducing policies. Based the provincial panel data from 2000-2016, the extended stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (extended STIRPAT) model was utilized to evaluate the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in different Chinese regions. The results show that: (1) during 2000 to 2016, the urban and rural energy consumption enlarged by 878.83 billion kWh and 488.98 billion kWh, respectively. In addition, electricity and oil have occupied more proportion in urban energy consumption, while coal still plays an important role in rural residential energy consumption (28.2%). (2) Heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) have positive influences on urban and rural residential energy consumption in different areas, and the elastic coefficients are 0.028-0.371 and 0.066-0.158, respectively. (3) The elastic coefficient of CDD in urban areas of southern regions (0.158) is much larger than that in northern regions (0.068).},
}
@article {pmid32184791,
year = {2020},
author = {Jiménez, S and Fattahi, M and Bedis, K and Nasrolahpour-Moghadam, S and Irigoyen, JJ and Gogorcena, Y},
title = {Interactional Effects of Climate Change Factors on the Water Status, Photosynthetic Rate, and Metabolic Regulation in Peach.},
journal = {Frontiers in plant science},
volume = {11},
number = {},
pages = {43},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00043},
pmid = {32184791},
issn = {1664-462X},
abstract = {Environmental stress factors caused by climate change affect plant growth and crop production, and pose a growing threat to sustainable agriculture, especially for tree crops. In this context, we sought to investigate the responses to climate change of two Prunus rootstocks (GF677 and Adesoto) budded with Catherina peach cultivar. Plants were grown in 15 L pots in temperature gradient greenhouses for an 18 days acclimation period after which six treatments were applied: [CO2 levels (400 versus 700 µmol mol-1), temperature (ambient versus ambient + 4°C), and water availability (well irrigated versus drought)]. After 23 days, the effects of stress were evaluated as changes in physiological and biochemical traits, including expression of relevant genes. Stem water potential decreased under drought stress in plants grafted on GF677 and Adesoto rootstocks; however, elevated CO2 and temperature affected plant water content differently in both combinations. The photosynthetic rate of plants grafted on GF677 increased under high CO2, but decreased under high temperature and drought conditions. The photosynthetic rates of plants grafted onto Adesoto were only affected by drought treatment. Furthermore, in GF677-Catherina plants, elevated CO2 alleviated the effect of drought, whereas in those grafted onto Adesoto, the same condition produced acclimation in the rate. Stomatal conductance decreased under high CO2 and drought stress in both grafted rootstocks, and the combination of these conditions improved water-use efficiency. Changes in the sugar content in scion leaves and roots were significantly different under the stress conditions in both combinations. Meanwhile, the expression of most of the assessed genes was significantly affected by treatment. Regarding genotypes, GF677 rootstock showed more changes at the molecular and transcriptomic level than did Adesoto rootstock. A coordinated shift was found between the physiological status and the transcriptomic responses. This study revealed adaptive responses to climate change at the physiological, metabolic, and transcriptomic levels in two Prunus rootstocks budded with 'Catherina'. Overall, these results demonstrate the resilient capacity and plasticity of these contrasting genotypes, which can be further used to combat ongoing climate changes and support sustainable peach production.},
}
@article {pmid32184767,
year = {2020},
author = {Hereme, R and Morales-Navarro, S and Ballesteros, G and Barrera, A and Ramos, P and Gundel, PE and Molina-Montenegro, MA},
title = {Fungal Endophytes Exert Positive Effects on Colobanthus quitensis Under Water Stress but Neutral Under a Projected Climate Change Scenario in Antarctica.},
journal = {Frontiers in microbiology},
volume = {11},
number = {},
pages = {264},
doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2020.00264},
pmid = {32184767},
issn = {1664-302X},
abstract = {Functional symbiosis is considered one of the successful mechanisms by which plants that inhabit extreme environment improve their ability to tolerate different types of stress. One of the most conspicuous type of symbiosis is the endophyticism. This interaction has been noted to play a role in the adaptation of the native vascular plant Colobanthus quitensis to the stressful environments of Antarctica, characterized by low temperatures and extreme aridity. Projections of climate change for this ecosystem indicate that abiotic conditions will be less limiting due to an increase in temperature and water availability in the soil. Due to this decrease in stress induced by the climate change, it has been suggested that the positive role of fungal endophytes on performance of C. quitensis plants would decrease. In this study, we evaluated the role of endophytic fungi on osmoprotective molecules (sugar production, proline, oxidative stress) and gene expression (CqNCED1, CqABCG25, and CqRD22) as well as physiological traits (stomatal opening, net photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance) in individuals of C. quitensis. Individual plants of C. quitensis with (E+) and without (E-) endophytic fungi were exposed to simulated conditions of increased water availability (W+), having the current limiting water condition (W-) in Antarctica as control. The results reveal an endophyte-mediated lower oxidative stress, higher production of sugars and proline in plants. In addition, E+ plants showed differential expressions in genes related with drought stress response, which was more evident in W- than in W+. These parameters corresponded with increased physiological mechanisms such as higher net photosynthesis, stomatal opening and conductance under presence of endophytes (E+) as well as the projected water condition (W+) for Antarctica. These results suggest that the presence of fungal endophytes plays a positive role in favoring tolerance to drought in C. quitensis. However, this positive role would be diminished if the stress factor is relaxed, suggesting that the role of endophytes could be less important under a future scenario of climate change in Antarctica with higher soil water availability.},
}
@article {pmid32184532,
year = {2020},
author = {Harkness, C and Semenov, MA and Areal, F and Senapati, N and Trnka, M and Balek, J and Bishop, J},
title = {Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change.},
journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology},
volume = {282-283},
number = {},
pages = {107862},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107862},
pmid = {32184532},
issn = {0168-1923},
abstract = {Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.},
}
@article {pmid32183303,
year = {2020},
author = {Gartin, M and Larson, KL and Brewis, A and Stotts, R and Wutich, A and White, D and du Bray, M},
title = {Climate Change as an Involuntary Exposure: A Comparative Risk Perception Study from Six Countries across the Global Development Gradient.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {6},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17061894},
pmid = {32183303},
issn = {1660-4601},
support = {SES-0951366//National Science Foundation/ ; },
abstract = {Climate change has been referred to as an involuntary exposure, meaning people do not voluntarily put themselves at risk for climate-related ill health or reduced standard of living. The purpose of this study is to examine people's risk perceptions and related beliefs regarding (1) the likelihood of different risks occurring at different times and places and (2) collective (government) responsibility and personal efficacy in dealing with climate change, as well as (3) explore the ways in which climate risk may be amplified when posed against individual health and well-being. Previous research on this topic has largely focused on one community or one nation state, and so a unique characteristic of this study is the comparison between six different city (country) sites by their development and national wealth. Here, we collected 401 surveys from Phoenix (USA), Brisbane (Australia), Wellington (New Zealand), Shanghai (China), Viti Levu (Fiji), and Mexico City (Mexico). Results suggest that the hyperopia effect characterized the sample from each study site but was more pronounced in developed sites, suggesting that the more developed sites employ a broader perspective when approaching ways to mitigate their risk against climate-related health and well-being impacts.},
}
@article {pmid32179849,
year = {2020},
author = {Kusunoki, S and Ose, T and Hosaka, M},
title = {Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {4802},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61792-8},
pmid = {32179849},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the 'tipping year' Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).},
}
@article {pmid32179351,
year = {2020},
author = {Dai, C and Qin, XS and Lu, WT and Huang, Y},
title = {Assessing adaptation measures on agricultural water productivity under climate change: A case study of Huai River Basin, China.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {721},
number = {},
pages = {137777},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137777},
pmid = {32179351},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {This study explored an integrated framework to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures on the water productivity (WP) of the agricultural water management (AWM) system in the Huai river basin of China considering climate change impact. The adaptation measures include optimization of cropping pattern (OCP) and upgradation of irrigation techniques (UIT). The delta change method was used to downscale the climate variables from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of general circulation models (GCMs) during 2021-2050, the water footprint theory was used to estimate the spatial distribution of blue water to calculate the WP, and the nonlinear optimization model was used to seek optimal cropping pattern aiming at maximizing the system's WP. The changes in WP due to climate change and adaptation measures (e.g. combinations of OCP and UIT) were compared. Results indicated that WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be 4.56% and 6.51% lower than those under the benchmark scenario, respectively. The mitigation rates to the negative impact of climate change on WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be (1) 3.05% and 3.37% for the combination of spay irrigation technique and OCP, and (2) 4.34% and 4.59% for the combination of drip irrigation technique and OCP, respectively. It was revealed that the combination of drip irrigation and cropping pattern optimization could largely offset the adverse effect from climate change on WP under RCP4.5. Under such a scenario, the total plant areas of wheat and maize would reduce over the basin and so would the net export of crops in the basin; this would lead to a decrease in the crop trade benefit of 7.07 × 109 $ and a relief of 7.50 × 109 m3 of blue water loss. This study results could offer strategic decision support for long-term sustainable AWM of Huai river basin in a changing environment.},
}
@article {pmid32174933,
year = {2020},
author = {Villette, J and Cuéllar, T and Verdeil, JL and Delrot, S and Gaillard, I},
title = {Grapevine Potassium Nutrition and Fruit Quality in the Context of Climate Change.},
journal = {Frontiers in plant science},
volume = {11},
number = {},
pages = {123},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00123},
pmid = {32174933},
issn = {1664-462X},
abstract = {Potassium (K+) nutrition is of relevant interest for winegrowers because it influences grapevine growth, berry composition, as well as must and wine quality. Indeed, wine quality strongly depends on berry composition at harvest. However, K+ content of grape berries increased steadily over the last decades, in part due to climate change. Currently, the properties and qualities of many fruits are also impacted by environment. In grapevine, this disturbs berry properties resulting in unbalanced wines with poor organoleptic quality and low acidity. This requires a better understanding of the molecular basis of K+ accumulation and its control along grape berry development. This mini-review summarizes our current knowledge on K+ nutrition in relation with fruit quality in the context of a changing environment.},
}
@article {pmid32172340,
year = {2020},
author = {Singh, RK and Sinha, VSP and Joshi, PK and Kumar, M},
title = {Modelling Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in response to climate change scenarios for the SAARC nations.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {4},
pages = {236},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-8144-2},
pmid = {32172340},
issn = {1573-2959},
abstract = {Agriculture and forestry are the two major land use classes providing sustenance to the human population. With the pace of development, these two land use classes continue to change over time. Land use change is a dynamic process under the influence of multiple drivers including climate change. Therefore, tracing the trajectory of the changes is challenging. The artificial neural network (ANN) has successfully been applied for tracing such a dynamic process to capture nonlinear responses. We test the application of the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN) to project the future Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) for the year 2050 for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations which is a geopolitical union of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) use much frequently the term 'AFOLU' in their policy documents. Hence, we restricted our land use classification scheme as AFOLU for assessing the influence of climate change scenarios of the IPCC fifth assessment report (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). Agricultural land would increase in all the SAARC nations, with the highest increase in Pakistan and Maldives; moderate increase in Afghanistan, India and Nepal; and the least increase in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The forestry land use will witness a decreasing trend under all scenarios in all of the SAARC nations with varying levels of changes. The study is expected to assist planners and policymakers to develop nations' specific strategy to proportionate land use classes to meet various needs on a sustainable basis.},
}
@article {pmid32170152,
year = {2020},
author = {Tsai, HY and Rubenstein, DR and Fan, YM and Yuan, TN and Chen, BF and Tang, Y and Chen, IC and Shen, SF},
title = {Locally-adapted reproductive photoperiodism determines population vulnerability to climate change in burying beetles.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {1398},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15208-w},
pmid = {32170152},
issn = {2041-1723},
support = {AS-SS-106-05//Academia Sinica/ ; AS-IA-106-L01//Academia Sinica/ ; 108-2314-B-001 -009 -MY3, 103-2621-B-001 -003 -MY3 and 101-2313-B-001 -008 -MY3//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)/ ; },
abstract = {Understanding how phenotypic traits vary among populations inhabiting different environments is critical for predicting a species' vulnerability to climate change. Yet, little is known about the key functional traits that determine the distribution of populations and the main mechanisms-phenotypic plasticity vs. local adaptation-underlying intraspecific functional trait variation. Using the Asian burying beetle Nicrophorus nepalensis, we demonstrate that mountain ranges differing in elevation and latitude offer unique thermal environments in which two functional traits-thermal tolerance and reproductive photoperiodism-interact to shape breeding phenology. We show that populations on different mountain ranges maintain similar thermal tolerances, but differ in reproductive photoperiodism. Through common garden and reciprocal transplant experiments, we confirm that reproductive photoperiodism is locally adapted and not phenotypically plastic. Accordingly, year-round breeding populations on mountains of intermediate elevation are likely to be most susceptible to future warming because maladaptation occurs when beetles try to breed at warmer temperatures.},
}
@article {pmid32169674,
year = {2020},
author = {Charlier, P and Héry-Arnaud, G and Coppens, Y and Malaurie, J and Hoang-Oppermann, V and Deps, P and Kenmogne, JB and Foka, M and Josué, E and Schor, XE and Brun, L and Kepanga, M and Evanty, N and Julia, E and Bose, S and Iaukea, L and Romero Epiayu, J and Deo, S and Augias, A and Claverie, JM},
title = {Global warming and planetary health: An open letter to the WHO from scientific and indigenous people urging for paleo-microbiology studies.},
journal = {Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {104284},
doi = {10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104284},
pmid = {32169674},
issn = {1567-7257},
abstract = {This article, written by a collective of international researchers and worldwide representatives of indigenous populations, is an open letter to the WHO, based on the latest elements from the scientific literature, and the latest climatological data. It takes stock of the health consequences of global warming, and urges research organizations to take an interest in infectious agents formerly stored in the layers of ground (frozen or not) and now mobilized, then released from a distance.},
}
@article {pmid32167633,
year = {2020},
author = {Magel, JMT and Dimoff, SA and Baum, JK},
title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change-amplified pulse heat stress events on coral reef fish communities.},
journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1002/eap.2124},
pmid = {32167633},
issn = {1051-0761},
abstract = {Climate change-amplified temperature anomalies pose an imminent threat to coral reef ecosystems. While much focus has been placed on the effects of heat stress on scleractinian corals-including bleaching, mortality, and loss of reef structural complexity-and many studies have documented changes to reef fish communities arising indirectly from shifts in benthic composition, the direct impacts of heat stress on reef fish are much less well understood. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect effects of heat stress on reef fishes, using underwater visual censuses of coral reef fish communities conducted before, during, and after the 2015-2016 El Niño-induced global coral bleaching event. Surveys took place at the epicentre of this event, at 16 sites on Kiritimati (Republic of Kiribati; central equatorial Pacific) spanning across a gradient of local human disturbance. We expected that heat stress would have both direct and indirect negative effects on the reef fish community-with direct effects resulting from physiological stress during the event, and indirect effects manifesting afterwards as a consequence of coral mortality-and that the ability of fish communities to recover following the heat stress would depend on levels of local human disturbance. We found that total reef fish biomass and abundance declined by> 50% during heat stress, likely as a result of vertical migration of fish to cooler waters. One year after the cessation of heat stress, however, total biomass, abundance, and species richness had recovered to-or even exceeded-pre-heat stress levels. However, the biomass of corallivores declined by over 70% following severe coral loss, and reefs exposed to higher levels of local human disturbance showed impaired recovery following the heat stress. These findings enhance understanding of the projected impacts of climate change-associated marine heatwaves on reef fishes, and highlight the interacting effects of local and global stressors on this vital component of coral reef ecosystems.},
}
@article {pmid32167619,
year = {2020},
author = {Hunt, JR and Celestina, C and Kirkegaard, JA},
title = {The realities of climate change, conservation agriculture and soil carbon sequestration.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15082},
pmid = {32167619},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {The catastrophic bushfires experienced in south eastern Australia during the southern summer of 2020 have provided humanity with a timely reminder of the true horrors that can unfold in a rapidly warming world. As the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and offset them with carbon sequestration gains urgency, much is made of the potential for agricultural soils to act as a carbon sinks (Poulton et al. 2018). It is therefore timely that the study of Sun et al. (2020) in this issue delivers a dose of realism about the potential for conservation agriculture to sequester carbon in cropping soils across the globe, and its relationship with agricultural productivity.},
}
@article {pmid32167293,
year = {2020},
author = {Vandepaer, L and Panos, E and Bauer, C and Amor, B},
title = {Energy system pathways with low environmental impacts and limited costs: minimizing climate change impacts produces environmental co-benefits and challenges in toxicity and metal depletion categories.},
journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b06484},
pmid = {32167293},
issn = {1520-5851},
abstract = {Environmental indicators based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) method are integrated into an energy system model (ESM). This integration allows for the generation of comprehensive environmental assessments of future energy systems and for determining energy scenarios with low environmental impacts and moderate cost increases. In Switzerland, which is used as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, it is possible to generate pathways with a 5% cost increase on the cost-optimal situation, causing an impact score for climate change that is 2% higher than the minimum feasible solution. The minimization of life-cycle impacts on climate change generates substantial environmental co-benefits with regards to human health, air pollution, ozone depletion, acidification, and land transformation. However, that minimization also creates trade-offs that exacerbate the effects of metal depletion and human toxicity caused by upstream extraction and manufacturing linked to technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Finally, ambitious reduction targets of 95% direct (i.e., within the country) CO2 emissions for the year 2050 might still result in substantial climate change impacts should emissions embodied in the infrastructure and upstream supply chain not be jointly mitigated jointly.},
}
@article {pmid32167169,
year = {2020},
author = {Sutton, B and Mulvenna, V and Voronoff, D and Humphrys, T},
title = {Acting on climate change and health in Victoria.},
journal = {The Medical journal of Australia},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.5694/mja2.50527},
pmid = {32167169},
issn = {1326-5377},
}
@article {pmid32166685,
year = {2020},
author = {Shahbaz, P and Boz, I and Ul Haq, S},
title = {Adaptation options for small livestock farmers having large ruminants (cattle and buffalo) against climate change in Central Punjab Pakistan.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08112-9},
pmid = {32166685},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {Climate change is not a myth anymore and changing with every passing year regardless of the efforts to mitigate its root causes. Livestock being a key source of employment to a large poor world population also contributes to food security and poverty eradication. With the changing climate livestock farmers are also making their farms compatible to the new natural ecosystem. Therefore, this study investigated how small livestock farmers having large ruminants inventory perceive changes in climate, which strategies they adapt and the factors influencing the adaptation of climate changes strategies in livestock. Primary data was collected from 180 small livestock farmers of Central Punjab, and multiple (step-wise) regression analysis was used to determine the factors affecting adaptation of climate change strategies. Livestock farmers are also well aware of the climate change as majority of the farmers (63.4% and 71.4%) perceived an increase in temperature and precipitation, respectively. Livestock farmers made an attempt to adopt conventional climate change strategies such as mix farming, reduction in animals, provision of more drinking water, use of tree shades, livestock diversification, use of muddy roof, and floor in order to cope with climate changes. The adoption of these measures was significantly influenced by animal inventory, climate knowledge, livestock working hours, livestock experience, distance of veterinary hospital, and livestock-related training/workshops. Government needs to increase technical and logistic capacity of veterinary doctors, and should create awareness among small livestock farmers through media.},
}
@article {pmid32166442,
year = {2020},
author = {Ferreira, NCR and Miranda, JH},
title = {Potential occurrence of Puccinia sorghi in corn crops in Paraná, under scenarios of climate change.},
journal = {International journal of biometeorology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01880-6},
pmid = {32166442},
issn = {1432-1254},
abstract = {In the face of climate change scenarios, it is important to evaluate the possibility of an increase in the incidence of corn crop diseases and to promote studies aimed at creating mitigation measures. This paper aims to study the impacts that regional climate changes may have on the potential occurrence of corn common rust (Puccinia sorghi), in the region of Castro, Paraná (Brazil). The Eta climate model was driven by the global model CanESM2. We use the Historical simulation of the EtaCanESM2 model from 1981 to 2005, and future projections from 2046 to 2070 to simulate the occurrence of common rust. The criteria was adopted to simulate the common rust disease favored in environments with the minimum temperature lower than 8 °C, the maximum temperature higher than 32 °C, average temperature between 16 and 23 °C, and relative humidity higher than 95%. In Brazil, there are two different seasons for corn crop (Normaland Safrinha). Results show that relative humidity and minimum temperature simulated by the model presented good skills, approaching the observed data. Compared to the Historical simulation, the projections show a tendency to increase of maximum and minimum temperature in the future, and a tendency to decrease relative humidity. There is an increase in the number of days with the potential for the occurrence of the disease. The distribution of days with favorable conditions to rust disease tends to change in the future. In the Normaland Safrinhaseasons, there is a tendency to increase the number of days with favorable conditions to common rust occurrence. The influence of planting time is greater in Historical simulation when compared to future scenarios. The Safrinhaseason may present more days with the potential for the occurrence of common rust in the future than the Normalseason.},
}
@article {pmid32165743,
year = {2020},
author = {Gyles, C},
title = {Climate Change - A response.},
journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne},
volume = {61},
number = {3},
pages = {225},
pmid = {32165743},
issn = {0008-5286},
}
@article {pmid32165742,
year = {2020},
author = {Wilson, M},
title = {Climate Change.},
journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne},
volume = {61},
number = {3},
pages = {225},
pmid = {32165742},
issn = {0008-5286},
}
@article {pmid32165456,
year = {2020},
author = {Stacy, A},
title = {Climate change in common.},
journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien},
volume = {66},
number = {3},
pages = {164},
pmid = {32165456},
issn = {1715-5258},
}
@article {pmid32163476,
year = {2020},
author = {Liu, L and Liao, J and Wu, Y and Zhang, Y},
title = {Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {3},
pages = {e0229984},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0229984},
pmid = {32163476},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {The red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) is an endangered species listed by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) HARRIS J (2013). The largest population of this species is distributed mainly in China and Russia, which is called continental population SU L (2012)-Curt D (1996). This population is migratory, which migrates from its breeding range located in Northeast China and Southern Russia, to the wintering range in the south of China to spend the winter every year. The breeding range of this species is critical for red-crowned crane to survive and maintain its population. Previous studies showed the negative effects of habitat loss and degradation on the breeding area of red-crowned crane Ma Z (1998), Claire M (2019). Climate change may also threat the survival of this endangered species. Previous studies investigated the impacts of climate change on the breeding range or wintering range in China Wu (2012), [1]. However, no study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the whole breeding range of this species. Here, we used bioclimatic niche modeling to predict the potential breeding range of red-crowned crane under current climate conditions and project onto future climate change scenarios. Our results show that the breeding range of the continental population of red-crowned crane will shift northward over this century and lose almost all of its current actual breeding range. The climate change will also change the country owning the largest portion of breeding range from China to Russia, suggesting that Russia should take more responsibility to preserve this endangered species in the future.},
}
@article {pmid32162168,
year = {2020},
author = {Seritan, AL and Seritan, I},
title = {The Time Is Now: Climate Change and Mental Health.},
journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s40596-020-01212-1},
pmid = {32162168},
issn = {1545-7230},
}
@article {pmid32159002,
year = {2018},
author = {Sorensen, C and Saunik, S and Sehgal, M and Tewary, A and Govindan, M and Lemery, J and Balbus, J},
title = {Climate Change and Women's Health: Impacts and Opportunities in India.},
journal = {GeoHealth},
volume = {2},
number = {10},
pages = {283-297},
doi = {10.1029/2018GH000163},
pmid = {32159002},
issn = {2471-1403},
abstract = {Climate change impacts on health, including increased exposures to heat, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and altered vector-borne disease transmission, reduced water quality, and decreased food security, affect men and women differently due to biologic, socioeconomic, and cultural factors. In India, where rapid environmental changes are taking place, climate change threatens to widen existing gender-based health disparities. Integration of a gendered perspective into existing climate, development, and disaster-risk reduction policy frameworks can decrease negative health outcomes. Modifying climate risks requires multisector coordination, improvement in data acquisition, monitoring of gender specific targets, and equitable stakeholder engagement. Empowering women as agents of social change can improve mitigation and adaptation policy interventions.},
}
@article {pmid32158993,
year = {2017},
author = {Muhling, BA and Jacobs, J and Stock, CA and Gaitan, CF and Saba, VS},
title = {Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high-emission climate change scenario.},
journal = {GeoHealth},
volume = {1},
number = {7},
pages = {278-296},
doi = {10.1002/2017GH000089},
pmid = {32158993},
issn = {2471-1403},
abstract = {Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.},
}
@article {pmid32158983,
year = {2017},
author = {Anenberg, SC and Weinberger, KR and Roman, H and Neumann, JE and Crimmins, A and Fann, N and Martinich, J and Kinney, PL},
title = {Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change.},
journal = {GeoHealth},
volume = {1},
number = {3},
pages = {80-92},
doi = {10.1002/2017GH000055},
pmid = {32158983},
issn = {2471-1403},
abstract = {Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration-response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000-35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at $10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen-related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen-related health impacts.},
}
@article {pmid32159584,
year = {2020},
author = {Bosi, C and Pezzopane, JRM and Sentelhas, PC},
title = {Silvopastoral system with Eucalyptus as a strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change on Brazilian pasturelands.},
journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias},
volume = {92},
number = {suppl 1},
pages = {e20180425},
doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202020180425},
pmid = {32159584},
issn = {1678-2690},
abstract = {The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of Eucalyptus trees in a silvopastoral system on the microclimate and the capacity of that to mitigate the effects of climate change on pasturelands. This study included an open pasture of Piatã palisadegrass and an adjacent pasture that contained both palisadegrass and East-to-West rows of Eucalyptus trees, with 15 m between rows, 2 m between trees within rows. The micrometeorological measurements were collected at several distances from the tree rows and in the open pasture. The silvopastoral system was associated with greater between-row shading when solar declination was high and greater near-tree shading when solar declination was around -22°. Both soil heat flux and temperature were influenced by solar radiation, wind speed, and the ability of tree canopies to reduce radiation losses. Wind speed was consistently lower in the silvopastoral system, owing to the windbreak effect of the Eucalyptus trees. The present study demonstrated that silvopastoral systems can be used to attenuate the effects of climate change, as trees can protect pastureland from intense solar radiation and wind, thereby reducing evapotranspiration and, consequently, improving soil water availability for the understory crop.},
}
@article {pmid32159021,
year = {2019},
author = {Gorris, ME and Treseder, KK and Zender, CS and Randerson, JT},
title = {Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change.},
journal = {GeoHealth},
volume = {3},
number = {10},
pages = {308-327},
doi = {10.1029/2019GH000209},
pmid = {32159021},
issn = {2471-1403},
abstract = {Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate-limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.},
}
@article {pmid32158513,
year = {2020},
author = {Mohan, V and Hardee, K and Savitzky, C},
title = {Building community resilience to climate change: The role of a Population-Health-Environment programme in supporting the community response to cyclone Haruna in Madagascar.},
journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)},
volume = {12},
number = {1},
pages = {730},
doi = {10.4102/jamba.v12i1.730},
pmid = {32158513},
issn = {1996-1421},
}
@article {pmid32153649,
year = {2018},
author = {Baker, JS and Havlík, P and Beach, R and Leclère, D and Schmid, E and Valin, H and Cole, J and Creason, J and Ohrel, S and McFarland, J},
title = {Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios.},
journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]},
volume = {13},
number = {6},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac1c2},
pmid = {32153649},
issn = {1748-9326},
abstract = {Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.},
}
@article {pmid32154079,
year = {2020},
author = {Yang, F and Antonietti, M},
title = {Artificial Humic Acids: Sustainable Materials against Climate Change.},
journal = {Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany)},
volume = {7},
number = {5},
pages = {1902992},
doi = {10.1002/advs.201902992},
pmid = {32154079},
issn = {2198-3844},
abstract = {Humic acid, as a natural organic matter, is widely distributed in surface soil, oceans, rivers, and other ecological environments throughout the whole earth ecosystem. Humic acid provides abundant organic carbon and helps to maintain a hydrated, pH and redox buffered environment hosting the soil microbiome. Humic acid is however also a largely ignored polymer material full of exciting functional properties, and its scale is enormous. This perspective article discusses its synthesis and management as a tool to tackle parts of the climate crisis as well its use in technological applications, as made by chemical conversion of agricultural side products to artificial humic acids.},
}
@article {pmid32153323,
year = {2020},
author = {Yadav, S and Mishra, A},
title = {Ectopic expression of C4 photosynthetic pathway genes improves carbon assimilation and alleviate stress tolerance for future climate change.},
journal = {Physiology and molecular biology of plants : an international journal of functional plant biology},
volume = {26},
number = {2},
pages = {195-209},
doi = {10.1007/s12298-019-00751-8},
pmid = {32153323},
issn = {0971-5894},
abstract = {Alteration in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and other environmental factors are the significant cues of global climate change. Environmental factors affect the most fundamental biological process including photosynthesis and different metabolic pathways. The feeding of the rapidly growing world population is another challenge which imposes pressure to improve productivity and quality of the existing crops. C4 plants are considered the most productive, containing lower photorespiration, and higher water-use &amp; N-assimilation efficiencies, compared to C3 plants. Besides, the C4-photosynthetic genes not only play an important role in carbon assimilation but also modulate abiotic stresses. In this review, fundamental three metabolic processes (C4, C3, and CAM) of carbon dioxide assimilation, the evolution of C4-photosynthetic genes, effect of elevated CO2 on photosynthesis, and overexpression of C4-photosynthetic genes for higher photosynthesis were discussed. Kranz-anatomy is considered an essential prerequisite for the terrestrial C4 carbon assimilation, but single-celled C4 plant species changed this well-established paradigm. C4 plants are insensitive to an elevated CO2 stress condition but performed better under stress conditions. Overexpression of essential C4-photosynthetic genes such as PEPC, PPDK, and NADP-ME in C3 plants like Arabidopsis, tobacco, rice, wheat, and potato not only improved photosynthesis but also provided tolerance to various environmental stresses, especially drought. The review provides useful information for sustainable productivity and yield under elevated CO2 environment, which to be explored further for CO2 assimilation and also abiotic stress tolerance. Additionally, it provides a better understanding to explore C4-photosynthetic gene(s) to cope with global warming and prospective adverse climatic changes.},
}
@article {pmid32152872,
year = {2020},
author = {Battersby, J and Hunter-Adams, J},
title = {No Looking Back: [Food]ways Forward for Healthy African Cities in Light of Climate Change.},
journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11524-020-00429-7},
pmid = {32152872},
issn = {1468-2869},
support = {108458//International Development Research Centre/ ; },
}
@article {pmid32152856,
year = {2020},
author = {Li, X and Li, Y and Li, G},
title = {A scientometric review of the research on the impacts of climate change on water quality during 1998-2018.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08176-7},
pmid = {32152856},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {No.51178303//the National Science Foundation of China/ ; TD13-5021//the Training Program for Innovative Research Team in Tianjin Institutions of Higher Education/ ; No//the Tianjin Key Laboratory of Hazardous Waste Safety Disposal and Recycling Technology/ ; },
abstract = {Research on the impacts of climate change on water quality helps to better formulate water quality strategies under the challenge of an uncertain future, which is critical for human survival and development. As a result, in recent years, there has been growing attention given to research in the field, and the attention has led to an increasing number of publications, which is why a systematic literature review on this topic has been proposed in the current paper. This study reviewed 2998 related articles extracted from the Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-E) database from 1998 to 2018 to analyse and visualize historical trend evolution, current research hotspots, and promising ideas for future research by combining a traditional literature review, bibliometric analysis, and scientific knowledge mapping. The results revealed that the impacts of climate change on water quality mainly included the aggravation of eutrophication, changes in the flow, hydrological and thermal conditions, and the destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity. Further exploration of the influence mechanism of climate change on cyanobacteria is an emerging research topic. Additionally, the water quality conditions of shallow lakes and drinking water are promising future research objects. In the context of climate change, the general rules of water quality management and the scientific planning of land use are of great significance and need to be further studied. This study provides a practical and valuable reference for researchers to help with the selection of future research topics, which may contribute to further development in this field.},
}
@article {pmid32152593,
year = {2020},
author = {Phillips, N},
title = {Climate change made Australia's devastating fire season 30% more likely.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00627-y},
pmid = {32152593},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32152412,
year = {2020},
author = {Schlichtholz, P},
title = {Author Correction: Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {4732},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61544-8},
pmid = {32152412},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.},
}
@article {pmid32152271,
year = {2020},
author = {McDonough, LK and Santos, IR and Andersen, MS and O'Carroll, DM and Rutlidge, H and Meredith, K and Oudone, P and Bridgeman, J and Gooddy, DC and Sorensen, JPR and Lapworth, DJ and MacDonald, AM and Ward, J and Baker, A},
title = {Changes in global groundwater organic carbon driven by climate change and urbanization.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {1279},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-14946-1},
pmid = {32152271},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {Climate change and urbanization can increase pressures on groundwater resources, but little is known about how groundwater quality will change. Here, we use a global synthesis (n = 9,404) to reveal the drivers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is an important component of water chemistry and substrate for microorganisms that control biogeochemical reactions. Dissolved inorganic chemistry, local climate and land use explained ~ 31% of observed variability in groundwater DOC, whilst aquifer age explained an additional 16%. We identify a 19% increase in DOC associated with urban land cover. We predict major groundwater DOC increases following changes in precipitation and temperature in key areas relying on groundwater. Climate change and conversion of natural or agricultural areas to urban areas will decrease groundwater quality and increase water treatment costs, compounding existing constraints on groundwater resources.},
}
@article {pmid32150950,
year = {2020},
author = {Canelón, SP and Boland, MR},
title = {A Systematic Literature Review of Factors Affecting the Timing of Menarche: The Potential for Climate Change to Impact Women's Health.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {5},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17051703},
pmid = {32150950},
issn = {1660-4601},
support = {NA//University of Pennsylvania/ ; },
abstract = {Menarche is the first occurrence of a woman's menstruation, an event that symbolizes reproductive capacity and the transition from childhood into womanhood. The global average age for menarche is 12 years and this has been declining in recent years. Many factors that affect the timing menarche in girls could be affected by climate change. A systematic literature review was performed regarding the timing of menarche and four publication databases were interrogated: EMBASE, SCOPUS, PubMed, and Cochrane Reviews. Themes were identified from 112 articles and related to environmental causes of perturbations in menarche (either early or late), disease causes and consequences of perturbations, and social causes and consequences. Research from climatology was incorporated to describe how climate change events, including increased hurricanes, avalanches/mudslides/landslides, and extreme weather events could alter the age of menarche by disrupting food availability or via increased toxin/pollutant release. Overall, our review revealed that these perturbations in the timing of menarche are likely to increase the disease burden for women in four key areas: mental health, fertility-related conditions, cardiovascular disease, and bone health. In summary, the climate does have the potential to impact women's health through perturbation in the timing of menarche and this, in turn, will affect women's risk of disease in future.},
}
@article {pmid32149170,
year = {2020},
author = {Oyekale, AS},
title = {Dataset on cocoa production and climate change adaptation strategies in Ahafo Ano North District, Ghana.},
journal = {Data in brief},
volume = {29},
number = {},
pages = {105275},
doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2020.105275},
pmid = {32149170},
issn = {2352-3409},
abstract = {Sustainable cocoa production is susceptible to changes in some climatic parameters. This survey was carried out to understand the perceptions of cocoa farmers on climate change, its impacts on cocoa production and their adaptation methods. Stratified sampling method was used to select the farmers and data were collected with structured questionnaires. Stratification of the district was done based on existing seven administrative divisional offices which comprise of six area councils and one town council. Cocoa farmers were sampled within each stratum with sample size proportional to estimated number of farmers. During the survey, 378 cocoa farmers were interviewed from Abu-Bone (60), Anyinasuso (65), Biakoye (42), Kwasu-Abu (89), Subriso (35), Suponso (20) and Tepa (67). The dataset had been shared with this article and it is valuable for understanding the perceptions of cocoa farmers on climate change, cocoa production efficiency and determinants of climate change adaptation choices.},
}
@article {pmid32148315,
year = {2020},
author = {Xie, Y and Wang, H and Lei, X},
title = {Simulation of climate change and thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China using 3-PGmix model.},
journal = {Journal of environmental management},
volume = {261},
number = {},
pages = {110249},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110249},
pmid = {32148315},
issn = {1095-8630},
abstract = {Understanding the effects of thinning on forest productivity under climate change is vital to adaptive forest management. In the present study, the 3-PGmix model was applied to simulate the thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations under climate change using 164 sample plots collected from the 6th, 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories in Jilin Province, northeast China. Climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were adopted from 2011 to 2100 with corresponding reference years (1981-2010). We simulated four cutting intensities: no-thinning, NT; low intensity thinning with 10% stem removal, LT; moderate thinning with 20% stem removal, MT and heavy thinning with 30% stem removal, HT for three times with 5- and 10-year thinning intervals. The results indicated that the mean net primary productivity (NPP) during the simulated 90 years was increased under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The LT and MT had positive but HT had negative effects on the mean NPP for the same climate scenario. Increased thinning intensity facilitated the positive effects of climate change on NPP but without a significant interaction effect. During the simulation, LT had the highest NPP value and HT had the biggest NPP increase under future climate change. We also discussed the management of larch plantations under climate change and advocated low intensity thinning with 10-year thinning interval to gain maximum NPP for mitigating climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32144247,
year = {2020},
author = {Maberly, SC and O'Donnell, RA and Woolway, RI and Cutler, MEJ and Gong, M and Jones, ID and Merchant, CJ and Miller, CA and Politi, E and Scott, EM and Thackeray, SJ and Tyler, AN},
title = {Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {1232},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z},
pmid = {32144247},
issn = {2041-1723},
support = {221181/09/I-OL//European Space Agency (ESA)/ ; },
abstract = {Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080-2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.},
}
@article {pmid32134926,
year = {2020},
author = {Free, CM and Mangin, T and Molinos, JG and Ojea, E and Burden, M and Costello, C and Gaines, SD},
title = {Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {3},
pages = {e0224347},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0224347},
pmid = {32134926},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60-65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23-50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing-and achieving the benefits of-climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.},
}
@article {pmid32133399,
year = {2020},
author = {Praetorius, SK and Condron, A and Mix, AC and Walczak, MH and McKay, JL and Du, J},
title = {The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change.},
journal = {Science advances},
volume = {6},
number = {9},
pages = {eaay2915},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aay2915},
pmid = {32133399},
issn = {2375-2548},
abstract = {Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.},
}
@article {pmid32133022,
year = {2020},
author = {Vieira, J and Carvalho, A and Campelo, F},
title = {Tree Growth Under Climate Change: Evidence From Xylogenesis Timings and Kinetics.},
journal = {Frontiers in plant science},
volume = {11},
number = {},
pages = {90},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00090},
pmid = {32133022},
issn = {1664-462X},
abstract = {Tree growth is one of the most studied aspects of tree biology, particularly secondary growth. In the Mediterranean region, cambial activity is mostly determined by water availability. Climatic projections for the Mediterranean region predict more frequent and intense droughts, and longer periods without precipitation. To investigate tree growth under the predicted scenarios of climate change, a water manipulation experiment was conducted in a maritime pine stand (Pinus pinaster Aiton). In 2017, fifteen trees were divided into three groups: control, rain exclusion, and irrigation. Drought conditions were simulated by installing a continuous plastic sheet on the forest floor from March to September. Trees under irrigation treatment were watered twice a week in September. Cambial activity and xylem formation was monitored every 10 days from February 2017 until March 2018. Cell production was maximal around the spring equinox in all treatments. Trees under rain exclusion decreased cell production rates, xylogenesis duration, and latewood cell wall thickness. The extra irrigation in September did not produce noticeable differences in xylogenesis compared to trees in the control treatment. The synchronization of maximum cambial division rates around the vernal equinox (spring) could allow Mediterranean trees to mitigate the impact of summer drought. With the predicted increase in drought intensity and frequency, lower tree productivity, carbon sequestration, and wood biomass are expected.},
}
@article {pmid32132001,
year = {2020},
author = {Ramsay, G and Ramsay, W and Ramsay, R},
title = {Tackling climate change: &quot;plant good, meat bad&quot; is overly simplistic.},
journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)},
volume = {368},
number = {},
pages = {m805},
doi = {10.1136/bmj.m805},
pmid = {32132001},
issn = {1756-1833},
}
@article {pmid32131471,
year = {2020},
author = {Grossi, G and Vitali, A and Lacetera, N and Danieli, PP and Bernabucci, U and Nardone, A},
title = {Carbon Footprint of Mediterranean Pasture-Based Native Beef: Effects of Agronomic Practices and Pasture Management under Different Climate Change Scenarios.},
journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI},
volume = {10},
number = {3},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ani10030415},
pmid = {32131471},
issn = {2076-2615},
abstract = {A better understanding of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is needed when assessing the carbon footprint (CFP) of livestock products and the effectiveness of possible agriculture mitigation strategies. This study aimed (i) to perform a cradle-to-gate CFP of pasture-based beef cattle in a Mediterranean agropastoral system (ii) and to assess the effects on the CFP of alternative tillage, fertilizing, and grazing practices under current (NCC) and future climate change (CC) scenarios. Minimum (Mt) and no-tillage (Nt) practices were compared to current tillage (Ct); a 50% increase (Hf) and decrease (Lf) in fertilization was evaluated against the current (Cf) rate; and rotational grazing (Rg) was evaluated versus the current continuous grazing (Cg) system. The denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model was run using NCC as well as representative concentration pathways to investigate the effects of farm management practices coupled with future CC scenarios on SOC dynamics, N2O fluxes, and crop yield. Within NCC and CtCf, an emission intensity of 26.9 ± 0.7 kg CO2eq per kg live body weight was estimated. Compared to Ct, the adoption of Mt and Nt reduced the CFP by 20% and 35%, respectively, while NtHf reduced it by 40%. Conservation tillage practices were thus shown to be effective in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.},
}
@article {pmid32129873,
year = {2020},
author = {Goodwin, MM and Shattell, M},
title = {Why Nurses Should Care About Climate Change.},
journal = {Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services},
volume = {58},
number = {3},
pages = {3-4},
doi = {10.3928/02793695-20200217-01},
pmid = {32129873},
issn = {0279-3695},
}
@article {pmid32129019,
year = {2020},
author = {Ngatchou, N and Martin, PY and Fakhouri, F and Pruijm, M},
title = {[The kidneys : possible victims of global warming ?].},
journal = {Revue medicale suisse},
volume = {16},
number = {683},
pages = {412-416},
pmid = {32129019},
issn = {1660-9379},
abstract = {Over the last decades, an increasing number of cases of chronic and end-stage kidney disease has been observed in Central America and Asia. This kidney disease mainly affects young farmers without classic renal risk factors. The clinical presentation includes a progressive decrease of the glomerular filtration rate, minimal proteinuria and the presence of tubulo-interstitial nephritis at renal biopsy. A close link with global warming is suspected for this disease, called (according to its location) meso-american nephropathy, Sri Lanka nephropathy or chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology. Others have suggested that intake of water contaminated with pesticides may be responsible. This article provides an overview of this new kidney disease. Measures to prevent acute kidney injury during heat waves in Switzerland are also discussed.},
}
@article {pmid32128147,
year = {2020},
author = {Murphy, GEP and Romanuk, TN and Worm, B},
title = {Cascading effects of climate change on plankton community structure.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {4},
pages = {2170-2181},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.6055},
pmid = {32128147},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Plankton communities account for at least half of global primary production and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Warming and acidification may alter the interaction chains in these communities from the bottom and top of the food web. Yet, the relative importance of these potentially complex interactions has not yet been quantified. Here, we examine the isolated and combined effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in phytoplankton and predator abundances in a series of factorial experiments. We find that warming directly impacts the top of the food web, but that the intermediate trophic groups are more strongly influenced by indirect effects mediated by altered top-down interactions. Direct manipulations of predator and phytoplankton abundance reveal similar strong top-down interactions following top predator decline. A meta-analysis of published experiments further supports the conclusion that warming has stronger direct impacts on the top and bottom of the food web rather than the intermediate trophic groups, with important differences between freshwater and marine plankton communities. Our results reveal that the trophic effect of warming cascading down from the top of the plankton food web is a powerful agent of global change.},
}
@article {pmid32127682,
year = {2020},
author = {Marshall, DJ and Pettersen, AK and Bode, M and White, CR},
title = {Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming.},
journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution},
volume = {4},
number = {3},
pages = {406-411},
doi = {10.1038/s41559-020-1114-9},
pmid = {32127682},
issn = {2397-334X},
abstract = {Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (Topt). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across seven phyla remarkably well (R2 ~0.83). Developmental cost theory predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment and developmental cost theory provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. Developmental cost theory predicts that tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming.},
}
@article {pmid32125745,
year = {2020},
author = {Capblancq, T and Morin, X and Gueguen, M and Renaud, J and Lobreaux, S and Bazin, E},
title = {Climate associated genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica and potential responses to climate change in the French Alps.},
journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/jeb.13610},
pmid = {32125745},
issn = {1420-9101},
abstract = {Local adaptation patterns have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of species along their range of distribution. In the next decades, global warming is predicted to induce a change in the selective pressures that drive this adaptive variation, forcing a reshuffling of the underlying adaptive allele distributions. For species with low dispersion capacity and long generation time such as trees, the rapidity of the change could imped the migration of beneficial alleles and lower their capacity to track the changing environment. Identifying the main selective pressures driving the adaptive genetic variation is thus necessary when investigating species capacity to respond to global warming. In this study, we investigate the adaptive landscape of Fagus sylvatica along a gradient of populations in the French Alps. Using a double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing approach, we identified 7,000 SNPs from 570 individuals across 36 different sites. A redundancy analysis (RDA)-derived method allowed us to identify several SNPs that were strongly associated with climatic gradients; moreover, we defined the primary selective gradients along the natural populations of F. sylvatica in the Alps. Strong effects of elevation and humidity, which contrast north-western and south-eastern site, were found and were believed to be important drivers of genetic adaptation. Finally, simulations of future genetic landscapes that used these findings allowed identifying populations at risk for F. sylvatica in the Alps, which could be helpful for future management plans.},
}
@article {pmid32123294,
year = {2020},
author = {Albouy, C and Delattre, V and Donati, G and Frölicher, TL and Albouy-Boyer, S and Rufino, M and Pellissier, L and Mouillot, D and Leprieur, F},
title = {Author Correction: Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {4257},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61227-4},
pmid = {32123294},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.},
}
@article {pmid32119666,
year = {2020},
author = {Xu, Z and Bambrick, H and Frentiu, FD and Devine, G and Yakob, L and Williams, G and Hu, W},
title = {Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.},
journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases},
volume = {14},
number = {3},
pages = {e0008118},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118},
pmid = {32119666},
issn = {1935-2735},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, &quot;the future of dengue&quot; refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using &quot;population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue&quot; or &quot;epidemic potential of dengue cases&quot; as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.},
}
@article {pmid32118862,
year = {2020},
author = {Dzurec, L},
title = {Nursing and Health at the Heart of Climate Change Debates.},
journal = {Rehabilitation nursing : the official journal of the Association of Rehabilitation Nurses},
volume = {45},
number = {2},
pages = {55-56},
doi = {10.1097/RNJ.0000000000000250},
pmid = {32118862},
issn = {2048-7940},
}
@article {pmid32118121,
year = {2019},
author = {Jarmul, S and Liew, Z and Haines, A and Scheelbeek, P},
title = {Climate change mitigation in food systems: the environmental and health impacts of shifting towards sustainable diets, a systematic review protocol.},
journal = {Wellcome open research},
volume = {4},
number = {},
pages = {205},
doi = {10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15618.1},
pmid = {32118121},
issn = {2398-502X},
abstract = {Food systems contribute greatly to global climate change due to their substantial contributions to greenhouse gas emissions, water use, and resource allocation. In addition, current food systems fail to deliver healthy and sustainable foods for all, with obesity as well as undernourishment remaining a pertinent global issue. Mounting pressures such as population growth and urbanisation urge rapid and transformational adaptations in food systems to sustainably feed a growing population. Sustainable diets have been promoted as a potential climate change mitigation strategy, and are characterized by high plant based foods and reduced animal-sourced and processed foods. While the evidence base on the potential health and environmental impacts of shifts towards sustainable diets has been growing rapidly over the past decade, there has been no recent synthesis of the evidence surrounding the health and climate mitigation benefits of sustainable consumption patterns. This systematic review will synthesize the evidence of both empirical and modelling studies assessing the direct health outcomes (such as all-cause mortality and body mass index) as well as environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use etc.) of shifts towards sustainable diets. Eight literature databases will be searched to identify studies published between 1999-2019 that report both health and environmental outcomes of sustainable diets. Evidence will be mapped and subsequently analysed based on the comparability of results and reported outcomes.},
}
@article {pmid32116128,
year = {2020},
author = {Vardy, M},
title = {Relational agility: Visualizing near-real-time Arctic sea ice data as a proxy for climate change.},
journal = {Social studies of science},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {306312720906532},
doi = {10.1177/0306312720906532},
pmid = {32116128},
issn = {1460-3659},
abstract = {This ethnographic study at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) follows a group of scientists and communications specialists as they compose visualizations and analyses of near-real-time Arctic sea ice data. Research participants collectively make scientific judgments about near-real-time data in a highly visible public venue with 'relational agility'. They balance multiple phenomena including knowledge of how sceptics attack climate science, reflexivity about the conventions through which sea ice data is gathered, the needs of journalists working in a news cycle paced by Twitter, and the liveliness and vitality of sea ice itself. Relational agility, understood as a way of coordinating the social in relation to this plurality of contingent practices and processes, provides insight into the science and politics of nonlinear climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32114705,
year = {2020},
author = {Froelich, BA and Daines, DA},
title = {In Hot Water: Effects of Climate Change on Vibrio-Human Interactions.},
journal = {Environmental microbiology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.14967},
pmid = {32114705},
issn = {1462-2920},
abstract = {Sea level rise and the anthropogenic warming of the world's oceans is not only an environmental tragedy, but these changes also result in a significant threat to public health. Along with coastal flooding and the encroachment of saltwater farther inland comes an increased risk of human interaction with pathogenic Vibrio species, such as Vibrio cholerae, V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus. This minireview examines the current literature for updates on the climatic changes and practices that impact the location and duration of the presence of Vibrio spp., as well as the infection routes, trends and virulence factors of these highly successful pathogens. Finally, an overview of current treatments and methods for the mitigation of both oral and cutaneous exposures are presented. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid32112742,
year = {2020},
author = {van Daalen, K and Jung, L and Dhatt, R and Phelan, AL},
title = {Climate change and gender-based health disparities.},
journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health},
volume = {4},
number = {2},
pages = {e44-e45},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30001-2},
pmid = {32112742},
issn = {2542-5196},
}
@article {pmid32108854,
year = {2020},
author = {Vardoulakis, S and Marks, G and Abramson, MJ},
title = {Lessons Learned from the Australian Bushfires: Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Public Health.},
journal = {JAMA internal medicine},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.0703},
pmid = {32108854},
issn = {2168-6114},
}
@article {pmid32108735,
year = {2020},
author = {Smith, JN and van Daalen, KR and Venkatraman, R},
title = {Climate change and its potential impact on menopausal hot flashes: a commentary.},
journal = {Menopause (New York, N.Y.)},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1097/GME.0000000000001521},
pmid = {32108735},
issn = {1530-0374},
abstract = {Climate change is known to impact men and women differently and yet how it will change the health impact of menopause, specifically hot flashes, has not been well researched or understood. Given the duration of symptoms, the high number of women suffering from them, and the associated consequences, any marginal change in incidence due to climate change could result in a very large number of women being affected. Global health systems need to be prepared for this and ensure that gendered issues like menopause do not fall through the cracks as we prepare for our future climate. : Video Summary:http://links.lww.com/MENO/A549.},
}
@article {pmid32108075,
year = {2020},
author = {Powell, K},
title = {Tackling climate change by planting trees.},
journal = {The Veterinary record},
volume = {186},
number = {8},
pages = {256},
doi = {10.1136/vr.m786},
pmid = {32108075},
issn = {2042-7670},
abstract = {The UK needs to step up its tree-planting efforts to make a dent on climate change. Here, Keith Powell suggests that vets could bring clients together to provide the money and land for such projects.},
}
@article {pmid32107638,
year = {2020},
author = {Ali, A and Ashraf, MI and Gulzar, S and Akmal, M},
title = {Estimation of forest carbon stocks in temperate and subtropical mountain systems of Pakistan: implications for REDD+ and climate change mitigation.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {3},
pages = {198},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-8157-x},
pmid = {32107638},
issn = {1573-2959},
abstract = {Forests are important carbon pools as they provide pathway to mitigate climate change. Quantification of forest carbon has gained momentum after Paris Agreement in 2015. This information is a prerequisite for REDD+ implementation and carbon trading. Temperate and subtropical mountain systems of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province host about one third of Pakistan's 4.51 million ha forests. Present study estimated forest carbon stocks in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The data was collected from 449 sites in different forests across the province using a stratified cluster sampling technique. Total carbon stock in the forests of the province was estimated at 144.71 million tons with an average of 127.66 ± 9.32 t/ha. Aboveground carbon stock was 68.15 million tons accounting for 48% of the total forest carbon stock of the province. Further, belowground biomass and litter accounted for 10% and 1% respectively. The mean aboveground carbon stock was 59.98 ± 4.26 t/ha. The highest aboveground carbon stock was found in dry temperate forests (99.41 t/ha) followed by moist temperate (85.04 t/ha). Overall, temperate forests have aboveground carbon stock of 90.52 t/ha. Temperate and subtropical forests of Pakistan with high carbon densities have ample potential for reducing forest sector emissions. Therefore, forests of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province having substantial carbon stocks must be conserved for climate change mitigation. Present study provides a framework for carbon stock assessments in other temperate and subtropical regions of the world.},
}
@article {pmid32107433,
year = {2020},
author = {Préau, C and Grandjean, F and Sellier, Y and Gailledrat, M and Bertrand, R and Isselin-Nondedeu, F},
title = {Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {3570},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-60479-4},
pmid = {32107433},
issn = {2045-2322},
support = {2016/0710//Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie (National Association for Research and Technology)/ ; },
abstract = {Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available.},
}
@article {pmid32106456,
year = {2020},
author = {Smith, WL and Weisz, E and Knuteson, R and Revercomb, H and Feldman, D},
title = {Retrieving Decadal Climate Change from Satellite Radiance Observations-A 100-year CO2 Doubling OSSE Demonstration.},
journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)},
volume = {20},
number = {5},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/s20051247},
pmid = {32106456},
issn = {1424-8220},
abstract = {Preparing for climate change depends on the observation and prediction of decadal trends of the environmental variables, which have a direct impact on the sustainability of resources affecting the quality of life on our planet. The NASA Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission is proposed to provide climate quality benchmark spectral radiance observations for the purpose of determining the decadal trends of climate variables, and validating and improving the long-range climate model forecasts needed to prepare for the changing climate of the Earth. The CLARREO will serve as an in-orbit, absolute, radiometric standard for the cross-calibration of hyperspectral radiance spectra observed by the international system of polar operational satellite sounding sensors. Here, we demonstrate that the resulting accurately cross-calibrated polar satellite global infrared spectral radiance trends (e.g., from the Metop IASI instrument considered here) can be interpreted in terms of temperature and water vapor profile trends. This demonstration is performed using atmospheric state data generated for a 100-year period from 2000-2099, produced by a numerical climate model prediction that was forced by the doubling of the global average atmospheric CO2 over the 100-year period. The vertical profiles and spatial distribution of temperature decadal trends were successfully diagnosed by applying a linear regression profile retrieval algorithm to the simulated hyperspectral radiance spectra for the 100-year period. These results indicate that it is possible to detect decadal trends in atmospheric climate variables from high accuracy all-sky satellite infrared radiance spectra using the linear regression retrieval technique.},
}
@article {pmid32102967,
year = {2019},
author = {May, K and Noel, D},
title = {School Nurses and Climate Change.},
journal = {Annual review of nursing research},
volume = {38},
number = {1},
pages = {275-286},
doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.275},
pmid = {32102967},
issn = {0739-6686},
abstract = {Climate change is a serious threat to human health. Nurses recognize vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by the consequences from climate change, especially the elderly, pregnant women, and children. Children with asthma and chronic health conditions are at the greatest risk for negative health outcomes and are the most important reason for climate advocacy. This descriptive correlational study seeks to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of school nurses related to the health impacts of climate change. School nurses are in a unique position to address the health impacts of climate change and become fierce advocates of climate justice because of population they serve. School-age and adolescent students are particularly vulnerable to the consequences climate change, which include poor air quality, increasing temperatures, and increasing pollen counts. School nurses were invited to participate in the study via email and provided information about the Nurses Climate Change Challenge. It was the goal of the study to assess these domains in school nurses' and later develop continuing education to support the care and advocacy of students. The results suggest more continuing education on climate change and climate conscious care is needed for school nurses. The current challenge is not only to be more prepared to treat a greater number of illnesses induced by climate change, it is also to maintain expertise and adapt to a changing environment. Nurses must address the impact of climate change on a local level by making changes in practice and engaging in research so that they are prepared with the knowledge, and skills to offer expertise in environmental health and the care of school-age populations.},
}
@article {pmid32102960,
year = {2019},
author = {Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and Tagliareni, E and Tuck, I and Neal-Boylan, L and Ladd, E and Corless, IB and Reynolds, RY and Simmonds, K and Lussier-Duynstee, P},
title = {Advancing a School of Nursing Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health.},
journal = {Annual review of nursing research},
volume = {38},
number = {1},
pages = {145-158},
doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.145},
pmid = {32102960},
issn = {0739-6686},
abstract = {This chapter addresses the development and advancement of the Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health (CCCCJH) in the School of Nursing at the MGH Institute of Health Professions, the first nurse-led center emerged from the overwhelming evidence of climate change and its associated deleterious health consequences. The Center steering committee developed a mission, vision, and core values as well as a logo to guide the first year of initiatives and galvanize the efforts for the future. Workshop and symposium development, implementation, and evaluation are discussed. Future directions and the importance of educational initiatives aimed at expanding nursing and interprofessional knowledge of the intersection of climate and health are discussed.},
}
@article {pmid32102959,
year = {2019},
author = {Eide, P and Odom-Maryon, T},
title = {Environmental and Climate Change Initiatives in Nursing Education.},
journal = {Annual review of nursing research},
volume = {38},
number = {1},
pages = {131-144},
doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.131},
pmid = {32102959},
issn = {0739-6686},
abstract = {Climate change has been labeled the greatest threat to public health and to global health in the 21st century. Addressing climate change has also been reframed as the greatest opportunity for global health in the 21st century, providing a more proactive lens through which to plan and implement actions. Significant climate change impacts to human health are numerous and mounting, including the direct effects of heatwaves, thermal stress and changed frequency or intensity of other extreme weather events. Climate change has been termed a complex public health issue affecting all areas of nursing practice dealing with individuals, families, communities, and the national health arena, and is therefore deserving of inclusion into nursing curricula throughout the entirety of prelicensure coursework. Nursing education programs that include this content will better prepare future nurses to face projected environmental challenges to human health.},
}
@article {pmid32099173,
year = {2018},
author = {Butler, CD and Kefford, BJ},
title = {Climate change as a contributor to human conflict.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {555},
number = {7698},
pages = {587},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-03795-0},
pmid = {32099173},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32100390,
year = {2020},
author = {Nardell, E and Lederer, P and Mishra, H and Nathavitharana, R and Theron, G},
title = {Cool but dangerous: How climate change is increasing the risk of airborne infections.},
journal = {Indoor air},
volume = {30},
number = {2},
pages = {195-197},
doi = {10.1111/ina.12608},
pmid = {32100390},
issn = {1600-0668},
support = {//Harvard Dubai Center for Global Health/ ; 1D43TW009379//NIH/FIC/ ; MRC-RFA-IFSP-01-2013//South African Medical Research Council/ ; SF1401//European Union/ ; //Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University/ ; },
}
@article {pmid32100152,
year = {2020},
author = {Cox, AR and Robertson, RJ and Rendell, WB and Bonier, F},
title = {Population decline in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) linked to climate change and inclement weather on the breeding ground.},
journal = {Oecologia},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00442-020-04618-8},
pmid = {32100152},
issn = {1432-1939},
support = {32672//Canadian Foundation for Innovation/ ; },
abstract = {Population decline and the threat of extinction are realities currently facing many species. Yet, in most cases, the detailed demographic data necessary to identify causes of population decline are unavailable. Using 43 years (1975-2017) of data from a box-nesting population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), we identified reduced survival of offspring as a probable demographic cause of population decline. Poor fledging success was associated with increased predation and poor weather conditions during early nestling development. Low juvenile survival and subsequent recruitment was linked to poor weather conditions during the post-fledging period and may also be linked to conditions on the wintering grounds. Regional weather conditions during critical stages of breeding (early nestling and post-fledging) have become progressively worse over the 43-year study period. None of the other factors linked to offspring survival have similarly deteriorated. Overall, our results suggest tree swallows should be added to the growing list of species challenged by climate change, and that other species of aerial insect specialists may face similar impacts of climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32099833,
year = {2020},
author = {Pawankar, R and Wang, JY and Wang, IJ and Thien, F and Chang, YS and Latiff, AHA and Fujisawa, T and Zhang, L and Thong, BY and Chatchatee, P and Leung, TF and Kamchaisatian, W and Rengganis, I and Yoon, HJ and Munkhbayarlakh, S and Recto, MT and Neo, AGE and Le Pham, D and Lan, LTT and Davies, JM and Oh, JW},
title = {Asia Pacific Association of Allergy Asthma and Clinical Immunology White Paper 2020 on climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia-Pacific and impact on allergic diseases.},
journal = {Asia Pacific allergy},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {e11},
doi = {10.5415/apallergy.2020.10.e11},
pmid = {32099833},
issn = {2233-8276},
abstract = {Air pollution, climate change, and reduced biodiversity are major threats to human health with detrimental effects on a variety of chronic noncommunicable diseases in particular respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The extent of air pollution both outdoor and indoor air pollution and climate change including global warming is increasing-to alarming proportions particularly in the developing world especially rapidly industrializing countries worldwide. In recent years, Asia has experienced rapid economic growth and a deteriorating environment and increase in allergic diseases to epidemic proportions. Air pollutant levels in many Asian countries especially in China and India are substantially higher than are those in developed countries. Moreover, industrial, traffic-related, and household biomass combustion, indoor pollutants from chemicals and tobacco are major sources of air pollutants, with increasing burden on respiratory allergies. Here we highlight the major components of outdoor and indoor air pollutants and their impacts on respiratory allergies associated with asthma and allergic rhinitis in the Asia-Pacific region. With Asia-Pacific comprising more than half of the world's population there is an urgent need to increase public awareness, highlight targets for interventions, public advocacy and a call to action to policy makers to implement policy changes towards reducing air pollution with interventions at a population-based level.},
}
@article {pmid32099519,
year = {2020},
author = {Pandakov, PG and Teofilova, TM and Kodzhabashev, ND},
title = {Status of the burbot (Lota lota L.) in the Lower Danube (Bulgaria) - a species threatened by climate change.},
journal = {ZooKeys},
volume = {910},
number = {},
pages = {143-161},
doi = {10.3897/zookeys.910.47866},
pmid = {32099519},
issn = {1313-2989},
abstract = {The study provides data on the catch composition, length-weight relationship, age structure, gender structure, growth, maturation, fecundity, distribution and conservation status of the burbot Lota lota (Linnaeus, 1758) in Bulgaria. During six consecutive winters (2008-2014) a total of 395 burbot specimens were caught. The total length and the weight of the specimens ranged from 16 to 51 cm and 29.8 to 1057 g, respectively. Seven age classes were represented (3- to 9-years-old), with 3-, 4-, and 5-years-old most abundant. The maximal life expectancy was estimated as 12 years. Male-female ratio was 1:1. Maturity happens at the age of four at the earliest, valid for both sexes. One-quarter of the fish, older than 5 years were determined as non-reproducing in the particular year. The absolute fecundity varied between 47 462 and 810 236 eggs for females ranging from 5 to 7 years old and from 25.7 to 41.5 cm in length. A dramatic decrease of burbot population was observed in the last two decades. Warming water temperatures of the Danube, together with fragmentation in its tributaries are considered as the major threats affecting the species. Therefore, the burbot in Bulgaria is classified as Endangered.},
}
@article {pmid32094889,
year = {2018},
author = {Bai, X and Dawson, RJ and Ürge-Vorsatz, D and Delgado, GC and Salisu Barau, A and Dhakal, S and Dodman, D and Leonardsen, L and Masson-Delmotte, V and Roberts, DC and Schultz, S},
title = {Six research priorities for cities and climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {555},
number = {7694},
pages = {23-25},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-02409-z},
pmid = {32094889},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32094746,
year = {2018},
author = {},
title = {Don't jump to conclusions about climate change and civil conflict.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {554},
number = {7692},
pages = {275-276},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-01875-9},
pmid = {32094746},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32094600,
year = {2018},
author = {Forster, P},
title = {Homing in on a key factor of climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {553},
number = {7688},
pages = {288-289},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-00480-0},
pmid = {32094600},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32096898,
year = {2020},
author = {Hudson, J and McQuaid, CD and Rius, M},
title = {Contemporary climate change hinders hybrid performance of ecologically dominant marine invertebrates.},
journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/jeb.13609},
pmid = {32096898},
issn = {1420-9101},
abstract = {Human activities alter patterns of biodiversity, particularly through species extinctions and range contractions. Two of these activities are human mediated transfer of species and contemporary climate change, and both allow previously isolated genotypes to come into contact and hybridise, potentially altering speciation rates. Hybrids have been shown to survive environmental conditions not tolerated by either parent, suggesting that, under some circumstances, hybrids may be able to expand their ranges and perform well under rapidly changing conditions. However, studies assessing how hybridisation influences contemporary range shifts are scarce. We performed crosses on Pyura herdmani and Pyura stolonifera (Chordata, Tunicata), two closely related marine invertebrate species that are ecologically dominant and can hybridise. These sister species live in sympatry along the coasts of southern Africa, but one has a disjunct distribution that includes northern hemisphere sites. We experimentally assessed the performance of hybrid and parental crosses using different temperature regimes, including temperatures predicted under future climate change scenarios. We found that hybrids showed lower success than parental crosses at the experimental temperatures, suggesting that hybrids are unlikely to expand their ranges to new environments. In turn, we found that the more widespread species performed better at a wide array of temperatures, indicating that this parental species may cope better with future conditions. This study illustrates how offspring fitness may provide key insights to predict range expansions, and how contemporary climate change may mediate both the ability of hybrids to expand their ranges and the occurrence of speciation as a result of hybridisation.},
}
@article {pmid32094382,
year = {2020},
author = {P J, V and Ravichandran, M and Subeesh, MP and Chatterjee, S and M, N},
title = {Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {3255},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-59964-7},
pmid = {32094382},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {The Mascarene High (MH) is a semi-permanent subtropical high-pressure zone in the South Indian Ocean. Apart from its large influence on African and Australian weather patterns, it also helps in driving the inter-hemispheric circulation between the Indian Ocean in the south and subcontinental landmass in the north. Using observations and reanalysis products, this study for the first time investigates recent warming trend observed in the MH region during the Global Warming Hiatus (GWH) period (1998-2016). Significant positive trends are observed in sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and oceanic heat content (OHC) during this period in the MH region. Mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals the dominant role of heat advection in the observed warming trend. During the GWH period, stronger zonal currents advect the warm waters from the Western Pacific (WP) towards the MH region via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). This warming in the MH reduces the sea level pressure therein and establishes a weak pressure gradient between the MH and the northern hemisphere landmass. This in-turn weakens the cross-equatorial winds in the western Indian Ocean.},
}
@article {pmid32094170,
year = {2020},
author = {Han, Y and An, Z and Marlon, JR and Bradley, RS and Zhan, C and Arimoto, R and Sun, Y and Zhou, W and Wu, F and Wang, Q and Burr, GS and Cao, J},
title = {Asian inland wildfires driven by glacial-interglacial climate change.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1822035117},
pmid = {32094170},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Wildfire can influence climate directly and indirectly, but little is known about the relationships between wildfire and climate during the Quaternary, especially how wildfire patterns varied over glacial-interglacial cycles. Here, we present a high-resolution soot record from the Chinese Loess Plateau; this is a record of large-scale, high-intensity fires over the past 2.6 My. We observed a unique and distinct glacial-interglacial cyclicity of soot over the entire Quaternary Period synchronous with marine δ18O and dust records, which suggests that ice-volume-modulated aridity controlled wildfire occurrences, soot production, and dust fluxes in central Asia. The high-intensity fires were also found to be anticorrelated with global atmospheric CO2 records over the past eight glacial-interglacial cycles, implying a possible connection between the fires, dust, and climate mediated through the iron cycle. The significance of this hypothetical connection remains to be determined, but the relationships revealed in this study hint at the potential importance of wildfire for the global climate system.},
}
@article {pmid32093488,
year = {2020},
author = {Diadin, D and Vystavna, Y},
title = {Long-term meteorological data and isotopic composition in precipitation, surface water and groundwater revealed hydrologic sensitivity to climate change in East Ukraine.},
journal = {Isotopes in environmental and health studies},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {1-13},
doi = {10.1080/10256016.2020.1732369},
pmid = {32093488},
issn = {1477-2639},
abstract = {Our study focused on the incorporation of stable isotope ratios in water in climatic and hydrological observations to understand local hydroclimatic processes and determine basic hydrological sensitivity to climate change in East Ukraine. Long-term meteorological data from two stations at Kharkiv and Izyum showed that air temperature was significantly increased only for the cold period (November-April), while precipitation amount increased during all seasons. Applying two-component mixing model with stable isotope ratios in water, we determined that surface water in both regions was dominantly recharged by the cold precipitation. The highest share of cold precipitation contribution (∼79 %) was found in the river with the shortest water transit time. The isotopic signature of groundwater also indicated that water resources were mainly recharged during the cold period. Our findings reveal that basic hydrological sensitivity of the transboundary (Ukraine/Russian Federation) Seversky Donets River basin relates to hydroclimate changes mainly observed in November-April. We suggest that climate changes can influence surface water and groundwater but also the overall regional water availability that is highly dependent on the cold precipitation in these regions.},
}
@article {pmid32092873,
year = {2020},
author = {Paramsothy, M},
title = {Alleviating Climate Change and Pollution with Nanomaterials.},
journal = {Nanomaterials (Basel, Switzerland)},
volume = {10},
number = {2},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/nano10020358},
pmid = {32092873},
issn = {2079-4991},
abstract = {Nanoparticles can be utilized to extract carbon from air, dyes from water and sludge from waste, and are gradually emerging as useful for tackling threats to our planet's health [...].},
}
@article {pmid32090795,
year = {2020},
author = {Adedeji, AR and Zaini, F and Mathew, S and Dagar, L and Petra, MI and De Silva, LC},
title = {Sustainable energy towards air pollution and climate change mitigation.},
journal = {Journal of environmental management},
volume = {260},
number = {},
pages = {109978},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109978},
pmid = {32090795},
issn = {1095-8630},
abstract = {This is an evidence from a high-income economy in Southeast Asia and a support for scientific planning of the energy sector in ensuring air pollution and climate change mitigation. A comparative analysis of the energy options for electricity generation in the nation was made considering availability, cost and greenhouse gases emission - CO2, N2O and CH4, using a two-stage method comprising multi-objective optimization and TOPSIS. The renewable (RE) and non-renewable energy (NRE) options available were assessed through the lifecycle approach to determine the lifecycle greenhouse gas emission (LCGHG) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) per MWh of electricity. Considering historical electricity consumption, annual GDP and population growth from 1965, energy consumption for the year 2035 was forecasted using support vector machine regressor in Weka. Future plans in energy diversification pathways were examined through various scenario multi-objective optimizations with a constraint on resource availability and energy target using genetic algorithm in MATLAB. The outputs were ranked using TOPSIS method. Results showed that greenhouse gases emission could be reduced by 10.3 percent compared to business as usual scenario while the energy mix could attain 10 percent renewable energy in the grid at a relatively lower generation cost.},
}
@article {pmid32087819,
year = {2020},
author = {Friel, S},
title = {Climate change and the people's health: the need to exit the consumptagenic system.},
journal = {Lancet (London, England)},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30257-9},
pmid = {32087819},
issn = {1474-547X},
}
@article {pmid32046614,
year = {2020},
author = {Huber, I and Potapova, K and Ammosova, E and Beyer, W and Blagodatskiy, S and Desyatkin, R and Hoelzle, LE and Ignateva, M and Kokolova, L and Lemke, S and Neustroev, M and Nyukkanov, A and Protodyakonova, G and Reshetnikov, A and Romig, T and Shadrin, V and Samoilova, I and Semenov, S and Stepanov, K and Tarabukina, N and Vinokurova, L and Zakharova, R and Nifontov, K},
title = {Symposium report: emerging threats for human health - impact of socioeconomic and climate change on zooanthroponosis in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia.},
journal = {International journal of circumpolar health},
volume = {79},
number = {1},
pages = {1715698},
doi = {10.1080/22423982.2020.1715698},
pmid = {32046614},
issn = {2242-3982},
abstract = {Population growth, socio-cultural and economic changes as well as technological progress have an immediate impact on the environment and human health in particular. Our steadily rising needs of resources increase the pressure on the environment and narrow down untainted habitats for plants and wild animals. Balance and resilience of ecosystems are further threatened by climate change, as temperature and seasonal shifts increase the pressure for all species to find successful survival strategies. Arctic and subarctic regions are especially vulnerable to climate change, as thawing of permafrost significantly transforms soil structures, vegetation and habitats. With rising temperature, the risk of zoonotic diseases in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has also increased. As vegetation periods prolong and habitats broaden, zoonotic pathogens and their vectors find more favourable living conditions. Moreover, permafrost degradation may expose historic burial grounds and allow for reviving the vectors of deadly infections from the past. To assess the current state of knowledge and emerging risks in the light of the &quot;One Health&quot; concept, a German-Russian Symposium took place on 13 August 2018 in Yakutsk, Russian Federation. This symposium report presents the main findings generated from presentations and discussions.},
}
@article {pmid32080594,
year = {2017},
author = {},
title = {How the early bird combats climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {551},
number = {7681},
pages = {417},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-05998-3},
pmid = {32080594},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32076188,
year = {2017},
author = {},
title = {Coral predators get a boost from climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {546},
number = {7658},
pages = {330},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00760-1},
pmid = {32076188},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32076155,
year = {2017},
author = {},
title = {Global warming could shift rainfall patterns.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {546},
number = {7657},
pages = {189},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00638-2},
pmid = {32076155},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32076180,
year = {2017},
author = {},
title = {Global warming 'hiatus' claims are overblown.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {545},
number = {7652},
pages = {9},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00886-2},
pmid = {32076180},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32076213,
year = {2017},
author = {},
title = {Marine organism risks losing its skeleton thanks to climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {544},
number = {7651},
pages = {397},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00647-1},
pmid = {32076213},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32085475,
year = {2020},
author = {Krasna, H and Czabanowska, K and Jiang, S and Khadka, S and Morita, H and Kornfeld, J and Shaman, J},
title = {The Future of Careers at the Intersection of Climate Change and Public Health: What Can Job Postings and an Employer Survey Tell Us?.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {4},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17041310},
pmid = {32085475},
issn = {1660-4601},
abstract = {Climate change is acknowledged to be a major risk to public health. Skills and competencies related to climate change are becoming a part of the curriculum at schools of public health and are now a competency required by schools in Europe and Australia. However, it is unclear whether graduates of public health programs focusing on climate change are in demand in the current job market. The authors analyzed current job postings, 16 years worth of job postings on a public health job board, and survey responses from prospective employers. The current job market appears small but there is evidence from job postings that it may be growing, and 91.7% of survey respondents believe the need for public health professionals with training in climate change may grow in the next 5-10 years. Current employers value skills/competencies such as the knowledge of climate mitigation/adaptation, climate-health justice, direct/indirect and downstream effects of climate on health, health impact assessment, risk assessment, pollution-health consequences and causes, Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, communication/writing, finance/economics, policy analysis, systems thinking, and interdisciplinary understanding. Ensuring that competencies align with current and future needs is a key aspect of curriculum development. At the same time, we recognize that while we attempt to predict future workforce needs with historical data or surveys, the disruptive reality created by climate change cannot be modeled from prior trends, and we must therefore adopt new paradigms of education for the emerging future.},
}
@article {pmid32081261,
year = {2020},
author = {Leisner, CP},
title = {Review: Climate change impacts on food security- focus on perennial cropping systems and nutritional value.},
journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology},
volume = {293},
number = {},
pages = {110412},
doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2020.110412},
pmid = {32081261},
issn = {1873-2259},
abstract = {Anthropogenic increases in fossil fuel emissions have been a primary driver of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and other greenhouse gases resulting in warmer temperatures, alterations in precipitation patterns, and increased occurrence of extreme weather events in terrestrial areas across the globe. In agricultural growing regions, alterations in climate can challenge plant productivity in ways that impact the ability of the world to sustain adequate food production for a growing and increasingly affluent population with shifting access to affordable and nutritious food. While the knowledge gap that exists regarding potential climate change impacts is large across agriculture, it is especially large in specialty cropping systems. This includes fruit and vegetable crops, and perennial cropping systems which also contribute (along with row crops) to our global diet. In order to obtain a comprehensive view of the true impact of climate change on our global food supply, we must expand our narrow focus from improving yield and plant productivity to include the impact of climate change on the nutritional value of these crops. In order to address these questions, we need a multi-faceted approach that integrates physiology and genomics tools and conducts comprehensive experiments under realistic depictions of future projected climate. This review describes gaps in our knowledge in relation to these responses, and future questions and actions that are needed to develop a sustainable future food supply in light of global climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32080749,
year = {2020},
author = {Khan, T and Conway, TM},
title = {Vulnerability of Common Urban Forest Species to Projected Climate Change and Practitioners Perceptions and Responses.},
journal = {Environmental management},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01270-z},
pmid = {32080749},
issn = {1432-1009},
abstract = {While urban forests are often identified as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, less attention has been given to vulnerabilities urban trees may have to a changing climate and practitioners' response to those vulnerabilities. Yet, current planting and management decisions will impact how urban forests fare under future climatic conditions. We explore a case study of Mississauga (Ontario, Canada) to examine (1) if common urban forest species are vulnerable to two scenarios of projected climate change, (2) the experiences and responses of urban forestry practitioners to climate change, and (3) whether urban forestry practitioners' experience and practice are aligned with the vulnerability assessment. Vulnerabilities of 27 common species were examined based on 2071-2100 regional climate projections. Interviews were then conducted with practitioners working in the public and private sectors. The results suggest that the majority of examined species will be vulnerable to multiple conditions associated with projected climate. Practitioners all perceive recent changes in climate and extreme weather patterns, but do not prioritize future climate conditions in their species selection decisions. Moreover, they expressed uncertainty about how to make species selection decisions in light of climate change. Given the predicted vulnerabilities, alternative species need to be considered or more management resources (e.g., for watering) will be required to maintain the current composition. However, the lack of focus on future conditions by practitioners raises concerns, while also highlighting the need for more information about appropriate management strategies.},
}
@article {pmid32079756,
year = {2020},
author = {Dean, JF},
title = {Old methane and modern climate change.},
journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)},
volume = {367},
number = {6480},
pages = {846-848},
doi = {10.1126/science.aba8518},
pmid = {32079756},
issn = {1095-9203},
}
@article {pmid32079330,
year = {2020},
author = {Liu, X},
title = {Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {4},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17041278},
pmid = {32079330},
issn = {1660-4601},
support = {41877164//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; XDA23100401//Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; },
abstract = {Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3-5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future.},
}
@article {pmid32078825,
year = {2020},
author = {Lee, CH and Lin, SH and Kao, CL and Hong, MY and Huang, PC and Shih, CL and Chuang, CC},
title = {Impact of climate change on disaster events in metropolitan cities -trend of disasters reported by Taiwan national medical response and preparedness system.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {183},
number = {},
pages = {109186},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109186},
pmid = {32078825},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Taiwan is geographically located in a zone that is vulnerable to earthquakes, typhoons, floods, and landslide hazards and has experienced various disasters. Six Regional Emergency Medical Operation Centers (REMOCs) are integrated and administered by the Ministry of Health and Welfare (MOHW) to be responsible for emergency situations during disastrous events, such as the emission of chemical toxicants, traffic accidents, industrial materials containment, and typhoons.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To analyze events reported by the six REMOCs during the 2014 to 2018 for the government policy reference.<br><br>METHODS: Data were collected from injured and death toll reports provided by local designated hospitals in the emergency medical reporting system. Disaster events were categorized into three categories: natural disaster (NDs), disasters associated with technology (DTs), and disasters associated with security/violence/others (DSVOs). The three categories were further subdivided into sub-categories. Variables considered for trend analyses included the number of wounded and deaths, event characteristics, date/time, and triage. The frequency of disaster events among the six REMOCs was compared using the chi-square test. We used the global information system (GIS) to describe the distribution of events in Taiwan metropolitan cities. The α-level was set at 0.05.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 580 events during the study period, the distribution of disaster characteristics in the jurisdictions of the six REMOCs were different. The majority of disaster events were DTs (64.5%), followed by NDs (24.5%) and DSVOs (11.0%). Events for the three disaster categories in the six REMOCs were different (χ2-test, p < 0.001). Furthermore, for the Taipei branch (Northern Taiwan), other NDs, especially heatwaves and cold spells, were most reported in New Taipei City (92.2%) and showed an increasing annual trend; for the Kaohsiung branch (Southern Taiwan), DT events were the most reported, especially in Kaohsiung City; and for the Taichung branch (Central Taiwan), DSVOs were the most reported, especially in Taichung City.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our data revealed that extreme weather precautions reported in the Taipei branch were increasing. Disaster characteristics were different in each metropolitan city. Upgrading the ability to respond to natural disasters is ineluctable.},
}
@article {pmid32078684,
year = {2020},
author = {Nachman, G and Skovgård, H},
title = {Modeling the Influence of Ambient Temperature on the Interactions Between the Stable Fly (Diptera: Muscidae) and Its Natural Enemy Spalangia cameroni (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) to Assess Consequences of Climate Change.},
journal = {Environmental entomology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/ee/nvaa008},
pmid = {32078684},
issn = {1938-2936},
abstract = {A simulation model was used to predict how temperature influences biological control of stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans (L.)) by the pupal parasitoid Spalangia cameroni. Temperature, which was either constant or fluctuated due to seasonal variation and/or environmental stochasticity, was modeled as a first order autocorrelation process. The simulations showed that stable flies could tolerate a wider temperature interval than expected from their thermal performance curve (TPC). This was attributed to the fact that immature flies develop in manure, which protects them against low air temperatures. In contrast, the parasitoids were found to have a narrower thermal tolerance range than expected from their TPC. This was attributed to the temperature-dependent functional response of S. cameroni, which was a limiting factor for the parasitoid's development and survival when host densities were low at suboptimal temperatures. The effects of seasonal variation on critical thermal limits were studied by means of thermal performance diagrams (TPDs). Fluctuating temperatures narrowed the thermal tolerance range of both species. At constant temperatures, the simulations showed that the optimal temperature for using S. cameroni in control of stable flies is ~20°C and that the parasitoid can persist in environments with yearly average temperatures between 18 and 29°C. However, if temperature variation was taken into consideration, it changed both the optimal temperature and the temperature interval at which biological control will be possible. This indicates that climate change causing increasing temperatures compounded with greater fluctuations may have serious consequences for biological control of pests.},
}
@article {pmid32078658,
year = {2020},
author = {, },
title = {Correction: Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {2},
pages = {e0229679},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0229679},
pmid = {32078658},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225128.].},
}
@article {pmid32078610,
year = {2020},
author = {Walker, RK and Pereira-Morales, S and Kerr, R and Schenk, E},
title = {Climate Change Should Be on Every Nursing Research Agenda.},
journal = {Oncology nursing forum},
volume = {47},
number = {2},
pages = {135-144},
doi = {10.1188/20.ONF.135-144},
pmid = {32078610},
issn = {1538-0688},
abstract = {Human-caused climate change is a global emergency, and its harms are predicted to increase exponentially in the coming years, particularly if unsustainable practices continue unmitigated. Adverse effects of climate change on communities affected by or at risk for cancer, such as frail older adults, are already measurable and deadly. If nurse scientists continue to ignore these realities, more people are likely to suffer and die as a result. The purpose of this critical reflection is to discuss the vital necessity of including climate change in the research agenda of the Oncology Nursing Society and all nursing science. Using an approach grounded in critical theory and design justice, the authors provide specific suggestions for the incorporation of scientific considerations and nursing measures related to climate change into oncology nursing science.},
}
@article {pmid32077492,
year = {2020},
author = {Rauw, WM and Rydhmer, L and Kyriazakis, I and Øverland, M and Gilbert, H and Dekkers, JCM and Hermesch, S and Bouquet, A and Gómez Izquierdo, E and Louveau, I and Gomez-Raya, L},
title = {Prospects for sustainability of pig production in relation to climate change and novel feed resources.},
journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1002/jsfa.10338},
pmid = {32077492},
issn = {1097-0010},
abstract = {Pig production systems provide multiple benefits to humans. However, the global increase in meat consumption has profound consequences for our earth. This perspective describes two alternative scenarios for improving the sustainability of future pig production systems. The first scenario is a high input-high output system based on sustainable intensification, maximizing animal protein production efficiency on a limited land surface while minimizing environmental impacts. The second scenario is a reduced input-reduced output system based on selecting animals that are more robust to climate change and are better adapted to transform low quality feed (local feeds, feedstuff co-products, feed waste) into meat. However, in contrast to the first scenario, the latter scenario results in reduced predicted yields, reduced production efficiency, and possibly increased costs to the consumer. National evaluation of availability of local feed and feedstuff-coproduct alternatives, determination of limits to feed sourced from international markets, available land for crop and livestock production, desired production levels, and willingness to politically enforce policies through subsidies and/or penalties are some of the considerations to combine these two scenarios. Given future novel sustainable alternatives to livestock animal protein, it may become reasonable to move towards an added general premium price on 'protein from livestock animals' to the benefit of promoting higher incomes to farmers while covering the extra costs of, politically enforced, welfare of livestock animals in sustainable production systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid32076517,
year = {2020},
author = {Huang, J and Hao, H},
title = {Effects of climate change and crop planting structure on the abundance of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {3},
pages = {1324-1338},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.5986},
pmid = {32076517},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {The interactions between plants and insects play an important role in ecosystems. Climate change and cropping patterns can affect herbivorous pest insect dynamics. Understanding the reasons for population fluctuations can help improve integrated pest management strategies. Here, a 25-year dataset on climate, cropping planting structure, and the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Bachu County, south Xinjiang, China, was analyzed to assess the effects of changes in climate and crop planting structure on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The three generations of H. armigera showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming, especially in the third generation. The relative abundances of the first and second generations decreased, but that of the third generation increased. Rising temperature and precipitation produced different impacts on the development of different generations. The population numbers of H. armigera increased with the increase in the non-Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton-planted area. Asynchrony of abrupt changes existed among climate change, crop flowering dates, and the phenology of H. armigera moths. The asynchronous responses in crop flowering dates and phenology of H. armigera to climate warming would expand in the future. The primary factors affecting the first, second, and third generations of moths were Tmean in June, the last appearance date of the second generation of moths, and the duration of the third generation of moths, respectively. To reduce the harm to crops caused by H. armigera, Bt cotton should be widely planted.},
}
@article {pmid32076508,
year = {2020},
author = {Mainali, K and Shrestha, BB and Sharma, RK and Adhikari, A and Gurarie, E and Singer, M and Parmesan, C},
title = {Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {3},
pages = {1209-1222},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.5968},
pmid = {32076508},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors.We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC), above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance.All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size-class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline. Synthesis. Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.},
}
@article {pmid32071797,
year = {2019},
author = {Grossi, G and Goglio, P and Vitali, A and Williams, AG},
title = {Livestock and climate change: impact of livestock on climate and mitigation strategies.},
journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {69-76},
doi = {10.1093/af/vfy034},
pmid = {32071797},
issn = {2160-6064},
}
@article {pmid32073716,
year = {2020},
author = {Wolski, P and Lobell, D and Stone, D and Pinto, I and Crespo, O and Johnston, P},
title = {On the role of anthropogenic climate change in the emerging food crisis in Southern Africa in the 2019-2020 growing season.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15047},
pmid = {32073716},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {The failure of early (October-December) rains, amidst a multi-year drought, has raised concerns of a potential emerging food security crisis in parts of southern Africa, with an estimated 45 million people at risk of severe food insecurity (WFP, 2019). Here we evaluate recent climate data to assess the possible role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in the emerging crisis in this region spanning southern Mozambique, Zimbabwe and central and western Zambia.},
}
@article {pmid32072712,
year = {2020},
author = {Cassandro, M},
title = {Animal breeding and climate change, mitigation and adaptation.},
journal = {Journal of animal breeding and genetics = Zeitschrift fur Tierzuchtung und Zuchtungsbiologie},
volume = {137},
number = {2},
pages = {121-122},
doi = {10.1111/jbg.12469},
pmid = {32072712},
issn = {1439-0388},
}
@article {pmid32072310,
year = {2020},
author = {Das Sarkar, S and Sarkar, UK and Lianthuamluaia, L and Ghosh, BD and Roy, K and Mishal, P and Das, BK},
title = {Pattern of the state of eutrophication in the floodplain wetlands of eastern India in context of climate change: a comparative evaluation of 27 wetlands.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {3},
pages = {183},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-8114-8},
pmid = {32072310},
issn = {1573-2959},
support = {NICRA//Indian Council of Agricultural Research/ ; },
abstract = {The floodplain wetlands in different regional settings vary with time and space in terms of function and geomorphological diversity. In recent decades, these eco-sensitive waterbodies have been exposed to a wide range of anthropogenic threats and climatic changes. Therefore, assessment of these ecological and environmental threats is prerequisite to understand the state of ecosystem and to develop a sustainable management strategy for conservation of wetland biodiversity and fisheries enhancement. This paper discusses the region-specific pattern of trophic state index (TSI) of the 27 floodplain wetlands in West Bengal, India. Carlson TSI and Lamparelli TSI methods were used to determine a better approach based on historical and continuous dataset and to delineate the interrelationship among historical climatic variability for sustainable management of the resources. The study revealed that agro-climatic divisions do not unveil any significant impact on the TSI calculated using Carlson TSI as well as Lamparelli TSI method. The TSI scores for the two methods were significantly different (p < 0.01) for different zones based on wetland habitat types. The TSI scores revealed most of the wetlands to be in mesotrophic state. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that TSI scores were having similar pattern of variation with rainfall and water temperature. The present study also conveys fundamental information on ecological status based on the trophic state, which will aid to develop region-specific strategies for sustainable fisheries enhancement.},
}
@article {pmid32072220,
year = {2020},
author = {Wu, J},
title = {Risk and Uncertainty of Losing Suitable Habitat Areas Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study for 109 Gymnosperm Species in China.},
journal = {Environmental management},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01262-z},
pmid = {32072220},
issn = {1432-1009},
support = {2012BAC19B06//National Science and Technology Support Program of China/ ; },
abstract = {Taking 109 gymnosperm species in China as a case, the uncertainty and risk of losing habitat areas of gymnosperm species under future climate conditions were investigated via representative concentration pathways climate change scenarios, fuzzy set classifications and Monte Carlo techniques. Under nonrandom climate change scenarios, the richness of 109 species increased in the partial locations of northwestern and northeastern China and declined in the partial locations of eastern and central and southeastern China; the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~33-49, 36-40, 11-24, 7-9, and 2-8, respectively; ~99-105 species occupied over 80% of their total suitable areas and ~4-9 species occupied 60-80% their total suitable areas. Under random climate change scenarios, the number of species that losing various level of the habitat areas declined with enhancing probability; with a probabilities of over 0.6, the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~19-28, 3-19, 0-3, 1-2, and 9-14, respectively, and the numbers of species that occupying ~20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% of their total suitable areas were ~9-14, 4-11, 2-6, 1-3, and 34-45, respectively. Approximately 41% of 109 species will face extinction risks from climate change; the losing habitat areas in future climate condition will cause the varying of coniferous forest composition and the losing of ecosystem service related to the species; the uncertainty of losing distribution areas for species should not be ignored.},
}
@article {pmid32071238,
year = {2020},
author = {Zappa, G and Ceppi, P and Shepherd, TG},
title = {Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1911015117},
pmid = {32071238},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas-namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate-related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world.},
}
@article {pmid32069750,
year = {2020},
author = {Linares, C and Díaz, J and Negev, M and Martínez, GS and Debono, R and Paz, S},
title = {Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {182},
number = {},
pages = {109107},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.109107},
pmid = {32069750},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are &quot;win-win situation&quot; from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.},
}
@article {pmid32069704,
year = {2020},
author = {Li, Z and Li, Q and Wang, J and Feng, Y and Shao, Q},
title = {Impacts of projected climate change on runoff in upper reach of Heihe River basin using climate elasticity method and GCMs.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {716},
number = {},
pages = {137072},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137072},
pmid = {32069704},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Understanding the impacts of climate change on runoff is of great importance for water resource assessments and adaptation strategy developments especially for the areas where scare and unevenly distributed water are available. Compared to the hydrological modelling method, the climate elasticity method is more flexible with the advantage of using few data in addressing the issue of investigating the effects of climate change on runoff. This study employed Budyko-based climate elasticity method, combined with temperature-based Blaney-Criddle equation, to obtain the elasticities of runoff to two major climate variables, and then applied this methodology to the upper reach of Heihe River basin, China. The runoff elasticity to precipitation in the study area was estimated to be 0.56-0.57, and the elasticity to temperature was -0.017 to -0.018. Precipitation increases showed a positive effect to runoff increases, and temperature increases showed a negative effect. Performances of 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were assessed and the best GCMs were selected based on the entropy weighted TOPSIS approach. CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, CCSM4, and CanESM2 were ranked the first three with the best performances in simulating the observed precipitation and temperature over the study area. Climate projections from the above three GCMs showed that precipitation increased by 10% and 12% on average during the two periods of 2021-2050 and 2051-2080, producing 5.6% and 6.7% decreases in the projected long-term runoff compared to those in baseline period (1961-1990). Temperatures were projected to be increased by 2.0 °C and 2.9 °C for the two periods, resulting in the future long-term runoff decreased by nearly 2.0% and 2.9%, respectively.},
}
@article {pmid32069315,
year = {2020},
author = {Gottfried, I and Gottfried, T and Lesiński, G and Hebda, G and Ignaczak, M and Wojtaszyn, G and Jurczyszyn, M and Fuszara, M and Fuszara, E and Grzywiński, W and Błachowski, G and Hejduk, J and Jaros, R and Kowalski, M},
title = {Long-term changes in winter abundance of the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus in Poland and the climate change - Are current monitoring schemes still reliable for cryophilic bat species?.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {2},
pages = {e0227912},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0227912},
pmid = {32069315},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Warmer winters may lead to changes in the hibernation behaviour of bats, such as the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus, which prefers to hibernate at low temperatures. The species is also known for its large annual fluctuations in the number of wintering individuals, so inference about population trends should be based on long-term data. Prior to 2005, analyses indicated stable or even increasing barbastelle population in Poland. We analysed the results of 13 winter bat counts (2005-2017) of the species from 15 of the largest hibernacula, and additional site of 47 small bunkers, in Poland. The total number of wintering individuals remained stable during the study period, because the barbastelle is not a long-distance migrant, this likely reflects the national population trend. On the basis of mean winter air temperatures we divided the country into four thermal regions. Analyses of barbastelle abundance in hibernacula in the four regions revealed a 4.8% annual mean increase in numbers in the coldest region, where mean winter temperatures were below -2°C, annual mean declines of 3.3% and 3.1% in two warmer regions of western Poland, but no trend in the region of intermediate mean winter temperatures of between -1°C and -2°C. Overall, there was a significant, but weak, negative correlation between the abundance of hibernating individuals and the mean winter temperature. On the other hand, the number of individuals hibernating in small bunkers increased, even though the site was located in one of the warm regions. The results indicate a warming climate will likely reduce the use of large, well-insulated winter roosts by species that prefer colder conditions-and that this is already happening. For forest-dwelling bats, such as the barbastelle, for which monitoring schemes are primarily based on winter surveys of large hibernacula, estimations of population trends may consequently become less reliable.},
}
@article {pmid32067351,
year = {2020},
author = {Lindberg, RT and Collins, S},
title = {Quality-quantity trade-offs drive functional trait evolution in a model microalgal 'climate change winner'.},
journal = {Ecology letters},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/ele.13478},
pmid = {32067351},
issn = {1461-0248},
support = {University Research Fellowship//Royal Society/ ; //Darwin/ ; },
abstract = {Phytoplankton are the unicellular photosynthetic microbes that form the base of aquatic ecosystems, and their responses to global change will impact everything from food web dynamics to global nutrient cycles. Some taxa respond to environmental change by increasing population growth rates in the short-term and are projected to increase in frequency over decades. To gain insight into how these projected 'climate change winners' evolve, we grew populations of microalgae in ameliorated environments for several hundred generations. Most populations evolved to allocate a smaller proportion of carbon to growth while increasing their ability to tolerate and metabolise reactive oxygen species (ROS). This trade-off drives the evolution of traits that underlie the ecological and biogeochemical roles of phytoplankton. This offers evolutionary and a metabolic frameworks for understanding trait evolution in projected 'climate change winners' and suggests that short-term population booms have the potential to be dampened or reversed when environmental amelioration persists.},
}
@article {pmid32065642,
year = {2020},
author = {Ajanovic, S and Valente, M and Varo, R and Bassat, Q},
title = {Climate Change and the Future Health of Children in Low-Income Countries.},
journal = {Journal of tropical pediatrics},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/tropej/fmaa008},
pmid = {32065642},
issn = {1465-3664},
}
@article {pmid32061640,
year = {2020},
author = {Servili, A and Canario, AVM and Mouchel, O and Antonio Muñoz-Cueto, J},
title = {Climate change impacts on fish reproduction are mediated at multiple levels of the brain-pituitary-gonad axis.},
journal = {General and comparative endocrinology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {113439},
doi = {10.1016/j.ygcen.2020.113439},
pmid = {32061640},
issn = {1095-6840},
abstract = {Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have generated rapid variations in atmospheric composition which drives major climate changes. Climate change related effects include changes in physico-chemical proprieties of sea and freshwater, such as variations in water temperature, salinity, pH/PCO2 and oxygen content, which can impact fish critical physiological functions including reproduction. In this context, the main aim of the present review is to discuss how climate change related effects (variation in water temperature and salinity, increases in duration and frequency of hypoxia events, water acidification) would impact reproduction by affecting the neuroendocrine axis (brain-pituitary-gonad axis). Variations in temperature and photoperiod regimes are known to strongly affect sex differentiation and the timing and phenology of spawning period in several fish species. Temperature mainly acts at the level of gonad by interfering with steroidogenesis, (notably on gonadal aromatase activity) and gametogenesis. Temperature is also directly involved in the quality of released gametes and embryos development. Changes in salinity or water acidification are especially associated with reduction of sperm quality and reproductive output. Hypoxia events are able to interact with gonad steroidogenesis by acting on the steroids precursor cholesterol availability or directly on aromatase action, with an impact on the quality of gametes and reproductive success. Climate change related effects on water parameters likely influence also the reproductive behavior of fish. Although the precise mechanisms underlying the regulation of these effects are not always understood, in this review we discuss different hypothesis and propose future research perspectives.},
}
@article {pmid32060272,
year = {2020},
author = {Stern, PC},
title = {A reexamination on how behavioral interventions can promote household action to limit climate change.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {918},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-14653-x},
pmid = {32060272},
issn = {2041-1723},
}
@article {pmid32060183,
year = {2020},
author = {Stacy, A and Newbery, SL},
title = {Climate change efforts.},
journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien},
volume = {66},
number = {2},
pages = {89-93},
pmid = {32060183},
issn = {1715-5258},
}
@article {pmid32060182,
year = {2020},
author = {Hale, I and Hale, D},
title = {Climate change: motive, means, and opportunity.},
journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien},
volume = {66},
number = {2},
pages = {89},
pmid = {32060182},
issn = {1715-5258},
}
@article {pmid32059311,
year = {2020},
author = {Inaotombi, S and Sarma, D},
title = {Vegetation affects photoprotective pigments and copepod distribution in the Himalayan lakes: Implication for climate change adaptation.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {716},
number = {},
pages = {137053},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137053},
pmid = {32059311},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Lakes in the Himalayas host unique biota and biological communities which are highly sensitive to climate change. High penetration of solar UV radiation in clear shallow lake affects the distribution and abundance of the zooplankton communities. Survival of copepods in such habitats often relies on available photoprotective compounds. We estimated species diversity and distribution patterns of copepods with detectable carotenoids in 7 lakes of the central Himalayas along the altitudinal gradients. To determine the factors influencing the accumulation of high-level photoprotective compounds, we analyzed the physicochemical parameters of water and the concentration of Lignin like Compounds (LLCs), Aromaticity (ARO), Humic Compounds (HCs), Degree of Humification (DoH) and percent Total Organic Matter (TOM) in littoral sediments. In the shallow lakes, copepod abundance and diversity correlate with water transparency. Humic compounds (HCs) derived from ligninaceous plants stimulate the accumulation of photoprotective compounds that allow for the domination of diaptomidae. Copepods receive photoprotective compounds from the humic-bounded sediment substrate. The amount of photoprotectants in the aquatic food chain of the central Himalayas is largely influenced by ligninaceous compounds derived from catchment vegetation. In copepods of shallow clear lakes, the remnant of dead trees in the littoral zones helps to minimize hazards caused by exposure effect and climatic stress. The reduction of vegetative covers in the shorelines may alter the community structure of zooplankton, particularly in the upland ecosystem.},
}
@article {pmid32057694,
year = {2020},
author = {Anderson, R and Bayer, PE and Edwards, D},
title = {Climate change and the need for agricultural adaptation.},
journal = {Current opinion in plant biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2019.12.006},
pmid = {32057694},
issn = {1879-0356},
abstract = {Agriculture and food security are predicted to be significantly impacted by climate change, though the impact will vary by region and by crop. Combined with the increasing global population, there is an urgent need for agriculture to adapt to ensure future food security for this growing population. Adaptation strategies include changing land and cropping practices, the development of improved crop varieties and changing food consumption and waste. Recent advances in genomics and agronomy can help alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on food production; however, given the timeframe for crop improvement, significant investment is required to realise these changes. Ultimately, there is a limit as to how far agriculture can adapt to the changing climate, and a political will to reduce the impact of burning of fossil fuels on the global climate is essential for long term food security.},
}
@article {pmid32057343,
year = {2020},
author = {Tester, PA and Litaker, RW and Berdalet, E},
title = {Climate change and harmful benthic microalgae.},
journal = {Harmful algae},
volume = {91},
number = {},
pages = {101655},
doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.101655},
pmid = {32057343},
issn = {1878-1470},
abstract = {Sea surface temperatures in the world's oceans are projected to warm by 0.4-1.4 °C by mid twenty-first century causing many tropical and sub-tropical harmful dinoflagellate genera like Gambierdiscus, Fukuyoa and Ostreopsis (benthic harmful algal bloom species, BHABs) to exhibit higher growth rates over much of their current geographic range, resulting in higher population densities. The primary exception to this trend will be in the tropics where temperatures exceed species-specific upper thermal tolerances (30-31 °C) beyond which growth slows significantly. As surface waters warm, migration to deeper habitats is expected to provide refuge. Range extensions of several degrees of latitude also are anticipated, but only where species-specific habitat requirements can be met (e.g., temperature, suitable substrate, low turbulence, light, salinity, pH). The current understanding of habitat requirements that determine species distributions are reviewed to provide fuller understanding of how individual species will respond to climate change from the present to 2055 while addressing the paucity of information on environmental factors controlling small-scale distribution in localized habitats. Based on the available information, we hypothesized how complex environmental interactions can influence abundance and potential range extensions of BHAB species in different biogeographic regions and identify sentinel sites appropriate for long-term monitoring programs to detect range extensions and reduce human health risks.},
}
@article {pmid32057341,
year = {2020},
author = {Gobler, CJ},
title = {Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms: Insights and perspective.},
journal = {Harmful algae},
volume = {91},
number = {},
pages = {101731},
doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.101731},
pmid = {32057341},
issn = {1878-1470},
abstract = {Climate change is transforming aquatic ecosystems. Coastal waters have experienced progressive warming, acidification, and deoxygenation that will intensify this century. At the same time, there is a scientific consensus that the public health, recreation, tourism, fishery, aquaculture, and ecosystem impacts from harmful algal blooms (HABs) have all increased over the past several decades. The extent to which climate change is intensifying these HABs is not fully clear, but there has been a wealth of research on this topic this century alone. Indeed, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) approved in September 2019 was the first IPCC report to directly link HABs to climate change. In the Summary for Policy Makers, the report made the following declarations with &quot;high confidence&quot;: In addition, the report specifically outlines a series of linkages between heat waves and HABs. These statements about HABs and climate change and the high levels of confidence ascribed to them provides clear evidence that the field of HABs and climate change has matured and has, perhaps, reached a first plateau of certainty. While there are well-documented global trends in HABs being promoted by human activity, including climate change, individual events are driven by local, regional, and global drivers, making it critical to carefully evaluate the conditions and responses at appropriate scales. It is within this context that the first Special Issue on Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms is published in Harmful Algae.},
}
@article {pmid32057339,
year = {2020},
author = {Trainer, VL and Moore, SK and Hallegraeff, G and Kudela, RM and Clement, A and Mardones, JI and Cochlan, WP},
title = {Pelagic harmful algal blooms and climate change: Lessons from nature's experiments with extremes.},
journal = {Harmful algae},
volume = {91},
number = {},
pages = {101591},
doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.009},
pmid = {32057339},
issn = {1878-1470},
abstract = {Time series now have sufficient duration to determine harmful algal bloom (HAB) responses to changing climate conditions, including warming, stratification intensity, freshwater inputs and natural patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Against the context of time series, such as those available from phytoplankton monitoring, dinoflagellate cyst records, the Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys, and shellfish toxin records, it is possible to identify extreme events that are significant departures from long-term means. Extreme weather events can mimic future climate conditions and provide a &quot;dress rehearsal&quot; for understanding future frequency, intensity and geographic extent of HABs. Three case studies of extreme HAB events are described in detail to explore the drivers and impacts of these oceanic outliers that may become more common in the future. One example is the chain-forming diatom of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and its response to the 2014-16 northeast Pacific marine heat wave. The other two case studies are pelagic flagellates. Highly potent Alexandrium catenella group 1 dinoflagellate blooms (up to 150 mg/kg PST in mussels; 4 human poisonings) during 2012-17 created havoc for the seafood industry in Tasmania, south-eastern Australia, in a poorly monitored area where such problems were previously unknown. Early evidence suggests that changes in water column stratification during the cold winter-spring season are driving new blooms caused by a previously cryptic species. An expansion of Pseudochattonella cf. verruculosa to the south and A. catenella to the north over the past several years resulted in the convergence of both species to cause the most catastrophic event in the history of the Chilean aquaculture in the austral summer of 2016. Together, these two massive blooms were colloquially known as the &quot;Godzilla-Red tide event&quot;, resulting in the largest fish farm mortality ever recorded worldwide, equivalent to an export loss of USD$800 million which when combined with shellfish toxicity, resulted in major social unrest and rioting. Both blooms were linked to the strong El Niño event and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, the latter an indicator of anthropogenic climate change in the southeastern Pacific region. For each of these three examples, representing recent catastrophic events in geographically distinct regions, additional targeted monitoring was employed to improve the understanding of the climate drivers and mechanisms that gave rise to the event and to document the societal response. Scientists must be poised to study future extreme HAB events as these natural experiments provide unique opportunities to define and test multifactorial drivers of blooms.},
}
@article {pmid32057338,
year = {2020},
author = {Griffith, AW and Gobler, CJ},
title = {Harmful algal blooms: A climate change co-stressor in marine and freshwater ecosystems.},
journal = {Harmful algae},
volume = {91},
number = {},
pages = {101590},
doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.008},
pmid = {32057338},
issn = {1878-1470},
abstract = {Marine and freshwater ecosystems are warming, acidifying, and deoxygenating as a consequence of climate change. In parallel, the impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) on these ecosystems are intensifying. Many eutrophic habitats that host recurring HABs already experience thermal extremes, low dissolved oxygen, and low pH, making these locations potential sentinel sites for conditions that will become more common in larger-scale systems as climate change accelerates. While studies of the effects of HABs or individual climate change stressors on aquatic organisms have been relatively common, studies assessing their combined impacts have been rare. Those doing so have reported strong species- and strain-specific interactions between HAB species and climate change co-stressors yielding outcomes for aquatic organisms that could not have been predicted based on investigations of these factors individually. This review provides an ecological and physiological framework for considering HABs as a climate change co-stressor and considers the consequences of their combined occurrence for coastal ecosystems. This review also highlights critical gaps in our understanding of HABs as a climate change co-stressor that must be addressed in order to develop management plans that adequately protect fisheries, aquaculture, aquatic ecosystems, and human health. Ultimately, incorporating HAB species into experiments and monitoring programs where the effects of multiple climate change stressors are considered will provide a more ecologically relevant perspective of the structure and function of marine ecosystems in future, climate-altered systems.},
}
@article {pmid32057337,
year = {2020},
author = {Hennon, GMM and Dyhrman, ST},
title = {Progress and promise of omics for predicting the impacts of climate change on harmful algal blooms.},
journal = {Harmful algae},
volume = {91},
number = {},
pages = {101587},
doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.005},
pmid = {32057337},
issn = {1878-1470},
abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase the severity and prevalence of harmful algal blooms (HABs). In the past twenty years, omics techniques such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics have transformed that data landscape of many fields including the study of HABs. Advances in technology have facilitated the creation of many publicly available omics datasets that are complementary and shed new light on the mechanisms of HAB formation and toxin production. Genomics have been used to reveal differences in toxicity and nutritional requirements, while transcriptomics and proteomics have been used to explore HAB species responses to environmental stressors, and metabolomics can reveal mechanisms of allelopathy and toxicity. In this review, we explore how omics data may be leveraged to improve predictions of how climate change will impact HAB dynamics. We also highlight important gaps in our knowledge of HAB prediction, which include swimming behaviors, microbial interactions and evolution that can be addressed by future studies with omics tools. Lastly, we discuss approaches to incorporate current omics datasets into predictive numerical models that may enhance HAB prediction in a changing world. With the ever-increasing omics databases, leveraging these data for understanding climate-driven HAB dynamics will be increasingly powerful.},
}
@article {pmid32057336,
year = {2020},
author = {Glibert, PM},
title = {Harmful algae at the complex nexus of eutrophication and climate change.},
journal = {Harmful algae},
volume = {91},
number = {},
pages = {101583},
doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.001},
pmid = {32057336},
issn = {1878-1470},
abstract = {Climate projections suggest-with substantial certainty-that global warming >1.5 °C will occur by mid-century (2050). Population is also projected to increase, amplifying the demands for food, fuel, water and sanitation, which, in turn, escalate nutrient pollution. Global projections of nutrient pollution, however, are less certain than those of climate as there are regionally decreasing trends projected in Europe, and stabilization of nutrient use in North America and Australia. In this review of the effects of eutrophication and climate on harmful algae, some of the complex, subtle, and non-intuitive effects and interactions on the physiology of both harmful and non-harmful taxa are emphasized. In a future ocean, non-harmful diatoms may be disproportionately stressed and mixotrophs advantaged due to changing nutrient stoichiometry and forms of nutrients, temperature, stratification and oceanic pH. Modeling is advancing, but there is much yet to be understood, in terms of physiology, biogeochemistry and trophodynamics and how both harmful and nonharmful taxa may change in an uncertain future driven by anthropogenic activities.},
}
@article {pmid32056705,
year = {2020},
author = {Montánchez, I and Kaberdin, VR},
title = {Vibrio harveyi: A brief survey of general characteristics and recent epidemiological traits associated with climate change.},
journal = {Marine environmental research},
volume = {154},
number = {},
pages = {104850},
doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104850},
pmid = {32056705},
issn = {1879-0291},
abstract = {Here we briefly review the major characteristics of the emerging pathogen Vibrio harveyi and discuss survival strategies and adaptation mechanisms underlying the capacity of this marine bacterium to thrive in natural and artificial aquatic settings. Recent studies suggest that some adaptation mechanisms can easily be acquired by V. harveyi and other members of the Vibrionaceae family owing to efficient horizontal gene transfer and elevated mutation rate. While discussing the main factors in charge of the expansion of Vibrio spp. habitats and concomitant spread of Vibrio-associated diseases under climate change, this review highlights the need for future studies able to address the joint impact of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the long-term dynamics and virulence of V. harveyi populations at the global scale.},
}
@article {pmid32055915,
year = {2020},
author = {Hishe, H and Giday, K and Soromessa, T and Van Orshoven, J and Muys, B and Barati, AA and Moghaddam, SM and Ozuyar, PG and Azadi, H},
title = {Should we Leave Nature Unattended or Assist through Enrichment to Foster Climate Change Mitigation? Exclosure Management in the Highlands of Ethiopia.},
journal = {Environmental management},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01259-8},
pmid = {32055915},
issn = {1432-1009},
abstract = {In order to foster the potential of exclosures to sequester carbon, it is understood that they are increasingly assisted through enrichment planting. To study the impact of the enrichment planting on carbon sequestration process, five exclosures with enrichment planting and five pure naturally regenerated exclosures were selected. Along parallel transects, 20 × 20 m plots were laid at 100 m intervals where all woody vegetations were counted and measured for their diameter and total height. For soil sampling, five subplots at the center and four at each corner of the plots were established. The samples were collected at a depth of 0-0.2 m, and this procedure was repeated for each plot. In this case, when good management practices were implemented (such as Wukro exclosures), significant differences in organic soil carbon above the ground and the total carbon between naturally regenerated and enriched exclosures (P < 0.05) were found. The mean estimates of the above ground carbon, soil carbon, and total carbon were respectively 8.08, 31.04, and 39.12 ton/ha for natural regeneration vs. 7.94, 31.00, and 38.93 ton/ha for enriched regeneration. Lower altitudes had significantly higher soil organic carbon (P < 0.05) than the higher altitudes. However, the slope had an insignificant effect on carbon distribution. Enriched exclosures performed more poorly in carbon sequestration. This was possibly due to the disturbances caused by mass plantation and poor post plantation follow up, since improved performance (P < 0.05) was seen in one enriched exclosure with better management practices.},
}
@article {pmid32055428,
year = {2019},
author = {},
title = {Climate Change: Impact on Livestock and How Can We Adapt.},
journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {NP},
doi = {10.1093/af/vfz022},
pmid = {32055428},
issn = {2160-6064},
}
@article {pmid32055407,
year = {2020},
author = {Waldvogel, AM and Feldmeyer, B and Rolshausen, G and Exposito-Alonso, M and Rellstab, C and Kofler, R and Mock, T and Schmid, K and Schmitt, I and Bataillon, T and Savolainen, O and Bergland, A and Flatt, T and Guillaume, F and Pfenninger, M},
title = {Evolutionary genomics can improve prediction of species' responses to climate change.},
journal = {Evolution letters},
volume = {4},
number = {1},
pages = {4-18},
doi = {10.1002/evl3.154},
pmid = {32055407},
issn = {2056-3744},
abstract = {Global climate change (GCC) increasingly threatens biodiversity through the loss of species, and the transformation of entire ecosystems. Many species are challenged by the pace of GCC because they might not be able to respond fast enough to changing biotic and abiotic conditions. Species can respond either by shifting their range, or by persisting in their local habitat. If populations persist, they can tolerate climatic changes through phenotypic plasticity, or genetically adapt to changing conditions depending on their genetic variability and census population size to allow for de novo mutations. Otherwise, populations will experience demographic collapses and species may go extinct. Current approaches to predicting species responses to GCC begin to combine ecological and evolutionary information for species distribution modelling. Including an evolutionary dimension will substantially improve species distribution projections which have not accounted for key processes such as dispersal, adaptive genetic change, demography, or species interactions. However, eco-evolutionary models require new data and methods for the estimation of a species' adaptive potential, which have so far only been available for a small number of model species. To represent global biodiversity, we need to devise large-scale data collection strategies to define the ecology and evolutionary potential of a broad range of species, especially of keystone species of ecosystems. We also need standardized and replicable modelling approaches that integrate these new data to account for eco-evolutionary processes when predicting the impact of GCC on species' survival. Here, we discuss different genomic approaches that can be used to investigate and predict species responses to GCC. This can serve as guidance for researchers looking for the appropriate experimental setup for their particular system. We furthermore highlight future directions for moving forward in the field and allocating available resources more effectively, to implement mitigation measures before species go extinct and ecosystems lose important functions.},
}
@article {pmid32055100,
year = {2020},
author = {Fant, C and Boehlert, B and Strzepek, K and Larsen, P and White, A and Gulati, S and Li, Y and Martinich, J},
title = {Climate change impacts and costs to U.S. electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure.},
journal = {Energy (Oxford, England)},
volume = {195},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2020.116899},
pmid = {32055100},
issn = {0360-5442},
abstract = {This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies. Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future.},
}
@article {pmid32055048,
year = {2020},
author = {Jia, P and Wang, T and van Vliet, AJH and Skidmore, AK and van Aalst, M},
title = {Worsening of tree-related public health issues under climate change.},
journal = {Nature plants},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/s41477-020-0598-2},
pmid = {32055048},
issn = {2055-0278},
support = {SKLURE2018-2-5//State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology (SKLURE)/ ; },
}
@article {pmid32053591,
year = {2020},
author = {Sultana, S and Baumgartner, JB and Dominiak, BC and Royer, JE and Beaumont, LJ},
title = {Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {2},
pages = {e0213820},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0213820},
pmid = {32053591},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia's multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia's horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960-1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia's horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.},
}
@article {pmid32052555,
year = {2020},
author = {Wang, H and Liu, H and Cao, G and Ma, Z and Li, Y and Zhang, F and Zhao, X and Zhao, X and Jiang, L and Sanders, NJ and Classen, AT and He, JS},
title = {Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change.},
journal = {Ecology letters},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/ele.13474},
pmid = {32052555},
issn = {1461-0248},
support = {//research grants from Lanzhou University/ ; lzujbky-2019-76//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; DEB-1856318 and CBET-1833988//the National Science Foundation of USA to LJ/ ; //a Semper Ardens grant from the Carlsbergfondet to NJS/ ; 31630009; 31901145//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; },
abstract = {Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35-year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming-induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast-growing period shortened during the mid-growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long-term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate.},
}
@article {pmid32050393,
year = {2020},
author = {Jarsjö, J and Andersson-Sköld, Y and Fröberg, M and Pietroń, J and Borgström, R and Löv, Å and Kleja, DB},
title = {Projecting impacts of climate change on metal mobilization at contaminated sites: Controls by the groundwater level.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {712},
number = {},
pages = {135560},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135560},
pmid = {32050393},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Heavy metal and metalloid contamination of topsoils from atmospheric deposition and release from landfills, agriculture, and industries is a widespread problem that is estimated to affect >50% of the EU's land surface. Influx of contaminants from soil to groundwater and their further downstream spread and impact on drinking water quality constitute a main exposure risk to humans. There is increasing concern that the present contaminant loading of groundwater and surface water systems may be altered, and potentially aggravated, by ongoing climate change, through large-scale impacts on recharge and groundwater levels. We investigated this issue by performing hydrogeological-geochemical model projections of changes in metal(loid) (As and Pb) mobilization in response to possible (climate-driven) future shifts in groundwater level and fluctuation amplitudes. We used observed initial conditions and boundary conditions for contaminated soils in the temperate climate zone. The results showed that relatively modest increases (0.2 m) in average levels of shallow groundwater systems, which may occur in Northern Europe within the coming two decades, can increase mass flows of metals through groundwater by a factor of 2-10. There is a similar risk of increased metal mobilization in regions subject to increased (seasonal or event-scale) amplitude of groundwater levels fluctuations. Neglecting groundwater level dynamics in predictive models can thus lead to considerable and systematic underestimation of metal mobilization and future changes. More generally, our results suggest that the key to quantifying impacts of climate change on metal mobilization is to understand how the contact between groundwater and the highly water-conducting and geochemically heterogeneous topsoil layers will change in the future.},
}
@article {pmid32050360,
year = {2020},
author = {Lengyel, E and Lázár, D and Trájer, AJ and Stenger-Kovács, C},
title = {Climate change projections for Carpathian soda pans on the basis of photosynthesis evidence from typical diatom species.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {710},
number = {},
pages = {136241},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136241},
pmid = {32050360},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The Carpathian Basin is home to a number of astatic soda pans which are especially vulnerable to the climate change due to their high degree of hydrological sensitivity. The photosynthetic plasticity of the three most dominant benthic diatom species (Nitzschia aurariae, N. reskovii, N. supralitorea) in a number of soda pans was measured, along with sulphate and chloride ion content; conductivity and temperature gradients were also recorded. On the basis of the maximal photosynthetic activity (Ps), climate models were employed to observe and predict the effects of climate change on photosynthesis over three time-spans: past (1970-2000), recent past (2005-2015) and projected future (2041-2060). Comparing the periods, it becomes apparent that climate change has a significant effect on photosynthesis and the photosynthetically active period of the Nitzschia species, the dominant primary producers in soda pans, by enhancing their photosynthetic activity and extending their vegetation period by two months. Due to the breadth of their ecological niche, the competitive advantages of the diatom species studied in the course of this research as against others are expected to prevail under the conditions predicted by the climate scenario presented here.},
}
@article {pmid32048375,
year = {2020},
author = {Beaudry, E and McKay, FH and Haines, BC},
title = {How are Victorian Local Government's Responding to Climate Change and Food Insecurity?.},
journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1002/hpja.330},
pmid = {32048375},
issn = {1036-1073},
abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges to public health and wellbeing. Steps taken by governments now will have a significant effect on public health outcomes, including the food system and food security.<br><br>METHOD: This study reviewed municipal public health and wellbeing plans from 79 local government areas (LGAs) in Victoria, Australia. Documents were included if they explicitly mentioned climate change and food insecurity. Of the 79 LGAs, 13 met the selection criteria and a content and framing analysis was conducted to identify the level of recognition of climate change on food security and proposed mitigation actions and strategies.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 13 LGAs, the documents of six were identified as having a high level of responsiveness to climate change and food insecurity, five were assessed as medium, and two low. Framing analysis identified council acknowledgment of how climate change effects food access through availability and price, and growing food locally and sustainably seen as a common action to improve food security.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that planning for climate change and food insecurity is not a high priority for Victorian LGAs. Given the current political climate in Australia, where many in federal government continue to deny the existence of climate change or are reluctant to implement mitigation strategies, it is now and will be increasingly important into the future that local governments plan for the impact of climate change on food insecurity. SO WHAT?: Climate change will impact how people access food and what foods are available to them. Unless all levels of government start to address, and plan for, climate change, the impact on communities will continue to intensify and grow more costly and damaging.},
}
@article {pmid32045029,
year = {2020},
author = {Lloyd, EA and Shepherd, TG},
title = {Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution.},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.14308},
pmid = {32045029},
issn = {1749-6632},
support = {//National Science Foundation/ ; 339390//FP7 Ideas: European Research Council/ ; },
abstract = {In our discussion of environmental and ecological catastrophes or disasters resulting from extreme weather events, we unite disparate literatures, the biological and the physical. Our goal is to tie together biological understandings of extreme environmental events with physical understandings of extreme weather events into joint causal accounts. This requires fine-grained descriptions, in both space and time, of the ecological, evolutionary, and biological moving parts of a system together with fine-grained descriptions, also in both space and time, of the extreme weather events. We find that both the &quot;storyline&quot; approach to extreme event attribution and the probabilistic &quot;risk-based&quot; approach have uses in such descriptions. However, the storyline approach is more readily aligned with the forensic approach to evidence that is prevalent in the ecological literature, which cultivates expert-based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics, and detailed methods for analyzing causes and mechanisms. We introduce below a number of preliminary examples of such studies as instances of what could be pursued in the future in much more detail.},
}
@article {pmid32042980,
year = {2020},
author = {Issoufou, AA and Soumana, I and Maman, G and Konate, S and Mahamane, A},
title = {Dynamic relationship of traditional soil restoration practices and climate change adaptation in semi-arid Niger.},
journal = {Heliyon},
volume = {6},
number = {1},
pages = {e03265},
doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03265},
pmid = {32042980},
issn = {2405-8440},
abstract = {Climate change increases the vulnerability of agrosystems to soil degradation and reduces the effectiveness of traditional soil restoration options. The implementation of some practices need to be readjusted due to steadily increasing temperature and lowering precipitation. For farmers, the best practice found, should have the potential to achieve maximum sustainable levels of soil productivity in the context of climate change. A study was conducted in South-West Niger to investigate the use of the suitable practice, through (i) a meta-analysis of case studies, (ii) using field survey and (iii) by using AquaCrop model. Results showed that the effects of the association zaï + mulch on crop yield was up to 2 times higher than control plots depending on climate projections scenario RCP 8.5 under which carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are projected to reach 936 ppm by 2100. The practice appeared to be an interesting option for enhancing crop productivity in a context of climate change. Concerning its ability, it offers the best prospects to reverse soil degradation in the study area. In addition, the simulation showed that this strategy was suitable for timely sowing and therefore confirmed scholars and farmers views. Furthermore, this practice is relatively more effective compared to the others practices. These results show that association zaï + mulch could be considered as the best practice that can participate to a successful adaptation to reduce risk from climate change at the same time by reducing the vulnerability of farmers in Southwest of Niger for now and even for the future.},
}
@article {pmid32041877,
year = {2020},
author = {Román-Palacios, C and Wiens, JJ},
title = {Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1913007117},
pmid = {32041877},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57-70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16-30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive.},
}
@article {pmid32041306,
year = {2020},
author = {Ezquer, I and Salameh, I and Colombo, L and Kalaitzis, P},
title = {Plant Cell Walls Tackling Climate Change: Insights into Plant Cell Wall Remodeling, Its Regulation, and Biotechnological Strategies to Improve Crop Adaptations and Photosynthesis in Response to Global Warming.},
journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)},
volume = {9},
number = {2},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/plants9020212},
pmid = {32041306},
issn = {2223-7747},
support = {Linea2-DBS//Dept. Biosciences-UNIMI/ ; RISE-EXPOSEED//H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions/ ; },
abstract = {Plant cell wall (CW) is a complex and intricate structure that performs several functions throughout the plant life cycle. The CW of plants is critical to the maintenance of cells' structural integrity by resisting internal hydrostatic pressures, providing flexibility to support cell division and expansion during tissue differentiation, and acting as an environmental barrier that protects the cells in response to abiotic stress. Plant CW, comprised primarily of polysaccharides, represents the largest sink for photosynthetically fixed carbon, both in plants and in the biosphere. The CW structure is highly varied, not only between plant species but also among different organs, tissues, and cell types in the same organism. During the developmental processes, the main CW components, i.e., cellulose, pectins, hemicelluloses, and different types of CW-glycoproteins, interact constantly with each other and with the environment to maintain cell homeostasis. Differentiation processes are altered by positional effect and are also tightly linked to environmental changes, affecting CW both at the molecular and biochemical levels. The negative effect of climate change on the environment is multifaceted, from high temperatures, altered concentrations of greenhouse gases such as increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, soil salinity, and drought, to increasing frequency of extreme weather events taking place concomitantly, therefore, climate change affects crop productivity in multiple ways. Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is expected to increase photosynthetic rates, especially at high temperatures and under water-limited conditions. This review aims to synthesize current knowledge regarding the effects of climate change on CW biogenesis and modification. We discuss specific cases in crops of interest carrying cell wall modifications that enhance tolerance to climate change-related stresses; from cereals such as rice, wheat, barley, or maize to dicots of interest such as brassica oilseed, cotton, soybean, tomato, or potato. This information could be used for the rational design of genetic engineering traits that aim to increase the stress tolerance in key crops. Future growing conditions expose plants to variable and extreme climate change factors, which negatively impact global agriculture, and therefore further research in this area is critical.},
}
@article {pmid32037991,
year = {2020},
author = {Fischer, JW},
title = {Climate change and Canadian emergency medicine: Exploring alternative futures.},
journal = {CJEM},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {1-2},
doi = {10.1017/cem.2019.484},
pmid = {32037991},
issn = {1481-8035},
}
@article {pmid32037696,
year = {2020},
author = {Fredston-Hermann, A and Selden, B and Pinsky, M and Gaines, SD and Halpern, BS},
title = {Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15035},
pmid = {32037696},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate-related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observational data over space or over time. We analyzed annual range edge dynamics of marine fishes-both at the individual species level and pooled into cold- and warm-edge assemblages-in a multi-decade time-series of trawl surveys conducted on the Northeast U.S. Shelf during a period of rapid warming. We tested whether cold edges show stronger evidence of climate tracking than warm edges (due to non-climate processes or time lags at the warm edge; the biogeography hypothesis or extinction debt hypothesis), or whether they tracked temperature change equally (due to the influence of habitat suitability; the ecophysiology hypothesis). In addition to exploring correlations with regional temperature change, we calculated species- and assemblage-specific sea bottom and sea surface temperature isotherms and used them to predict range edge position. Cold edges shifted further and tracked sea surface and bottom temperature isotherms to a greater degree than warm edges. Mixed-effects models revealed that for a one-degree latitude shift in isotherm position, cold edges shifted 0.47 degrees of latitude, and warm edges shifted only 0.28 degrees. Our results suggest that cold range edges are tracking climate change better than warm range edges, invalidating the ecophysiology hypothesis. We also found that even among highly mobile marine ectotherms in a global warming hotspot, few species are fully keeping pace with climate.},
}
@article {pmid32037631,
year = {2020},
author = {Oyinlola, MA and Reygondeau, G and Wabnitz, CCC and Cheung, WWL},
title = {Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14974},
pmid = {32037631},
issn = {1365-2486},
support = {//Nippon Foundation-University of British Columbia, Nereus Program/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; },
abstract = {Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio-economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%-40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the 'no mitigation policy' scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid-21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 ('strong mitigation') and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.},
}
@article {pmid32036529,
year = {2020},
author = {Sofuoğlu, E and Ay, A},
title = {The relationship between climate change and political instability: the case of MENA countries (1985:01-2016:12).},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-07937-8},
pmid = {32036529},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between climate change and political instability in the MENA region. To this extent, 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries are analyzed covering the period 1985:01-2016:12 with monthly data. In econometric analysis, at first cross-sectional dependency analysis is applied, and existence of cross-sectional dependency among countries is found. Therefore, CADF-second generation panel unit root test applied, and finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test that consider the cross-sectional dependency are utilized. For empirical analysis, temperature and precipitation data representing climate change, political instability, and conflict data are employed. According to the findings, there is a causal relationship from climate change to political instability in 16 countries and to conflict in 15 countries. In addition to this, at least one causal relationship is determined from climate change to political instability or conflict in all MENA countries. Therefore, empirical results support the assumption that climate change acts as a threat multiplier in MENA countries since it triggers, accelerates, and deepens the current instabilities.},
}
@article {pmid32034589,
year = {2020},
author = {Chen, MF},
title = {Moral extension of the protection motivation theory model to predict climate change mitigation behavioral intentions in Taiwan.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-07963-6},
pmid = {32034589},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {NSC 100- 2410-H-036-001-MY3//National Science Council/ ; MOST 105-2410-H-036-003-MY3//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan/ ; },
abstract = {In this study, perceived moral obligations were included in the protection motivation theory (PMT) model to explain people's intentions to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors. Empirical data and structural equation modeling results of a nationwide cross-sectional survey in Taiwan confirmed the higher explanatory power of the moral extension PMT model than that of the original PMT model. As expected, threat and coping appraisal of climate change affect protection motivation. In addition, perceived moral obligation affects protection motivation. This protection motivation enhances the intention to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors. The mediation effect of protection motivation was also verified in the moral extension PMT model. Practical implications and suggestions are proposed for the government and related authorities as well as environmental groups to encourage people to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors.},
}
@article {pmid32033377,
year = {2020},
author = {Alonso, L and Renard, F},
title = {A Comparative Study of the Physiological and Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities to Heat Waves of the Population of the Metropolis of Lyon (France) in a Climate Change Context.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {3},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17031004},
pmid = {32033377},
issn = {1660-4601},
abstract = {Increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves are direct consequences of global climate change with a higher risk for urban populations due to the urban heat island effect. Reducing urban overheating is a priority, as is identifying the most vulnerable people to establish targeted and coordinated public health policies. There are many ways of understanding the concept of vulnerability and multiple definitions and applications exist in the literature. To date, however, nothing has been done on the territory of this study, the metropolis of Lyon (France). The objective is thus to construct two vulnerability indices: physiological, focusing on the organism's capacities to respond to heat waves; and socio-economic, based on the social and economic characteristics and capacities of the community. To this end, two complementary methodologies have been implemented: the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the PCA (Principal Component Analysis) with Varimax rotation, respectively. The results were then spatialized to the smallest demographic census unit in France. The areas highlighted differed due to conceptual and methodological differences: the highest physiological vulnerabilities are in the center while the socio-economic ones are in the eastern periphery of the urban area. The location of these areas will enable prevention campaigns to be carried out, targeted according to the publics concerned.},
}
@article {pmid32032387,
year = {2020},
author = {Ainsworth, A and Drake, DR},
title = {Classifying Hawaiian plant species along a habitat generalist-specialist continuum: Implications for species conservation under climate change.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {2},
pages = {e0228573},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0228573},
pmid = {32032387},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Plant communities on tropical high islands, such as the Hawaiian Islands, are predicted to experience rapid climate change, resulting in novel climates. If increased temperature and/or drought exceed plant species' current tolerances, species that are unable to adapt or shift ranges risk extinction. By definition, habitat generalists have a wide niche breadth and thrive in a variety of habitats, whereas habitat specialists have a narrow niche breadth, and typically thrive under more specific climatic characteristics (e.g., cold). The objectives of this study were to: (1) classify plant species in the Hawaiian Islands along a habitat generalist-specialist continuum; (2) independently test the validity of species rankings, using environmental and biogeographic ranges; and (3) identify species' life-history traits that predict species location along the continuum. We quantified specialization for 170 plant species using species co-occurrence data from over one thousand plots to rank species' realized habitat niche breadth using the Jaccard index. The distribution of species along this continuum differed by species biogeographic origin, with endemic plant species ranked on the specialist end and non-native plant species ranked on the generalist end. Habitat specialization rankings also differed for four of nine tested variables (while controlling for biogeographic origin): number of habitat moisture types, minimum elevation, number of Hawaiian Islands, and life form. Life form was the only trait tested that differed across the continuum, with woody species ranked as stronger generalists than herbaceous species; this pattern was particularly evident for non-native species. This indirect method of estimating species' potential climatic flexibility uses increasingly available large plant community data sets with output rankings which represent species' realized habitat niches. Identifying species and plant communities that are on the habitat specialist end of the continuum allows for their prioritization in conservation planning, as globally the loss of specialists is an indication of degradation.},
}
@article {pmid32030161,
year = {2019},
author = {Roshan, G and Arab, M and Klimenko, V},
title = {Modeling the impact of climate change on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of buildings in Iran.},
journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering},
volume = {17},
number = {2},
pages = {889-906},
doi = {10.1007/s40201-019-00406-6},
pmid = {32030161},
issn = {2052-336X},
abstract = {In this study, it has been attempted to quantify model climate change effects of the coming decades on energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions of a dominant building brigade under hot and humid climates on the southern coast of Iran, based on three stations of Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar. In this research, the Meteonorm and DesignBuilder software have been used for climate and thermal simulation of building. One of the results of this study is the increase in temperature and relative humidity for the coming decades for all three study stations. The findings of this study showed that the average annual temperature for the 2060s compared to the present decade, will increase by 2.82 °C for Bandar Abbas, by 2.79 °C for Bushehr and for Chabahar it will reach 2.14 °C. This increase in temperature has led to an increase in discomfort warmer days and a decrease in discomfort cold days. But given the climatic type of the area, a decrease in the heating energy demand for the coming decades will not have a significant effect on the pattern of energy consumption inside buildings. Because for two stations of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, more than 95% of the energy demand for the 2060s is for cooling energy demand, which is about 80% of energy for Bushehr. In total, due to the increased demand for cooling energy in the coming decades, this will further increase carbon dioxide emissions, which is higher in Chabahar than in other study stations.},
}
@article {pmid32030153,
year = {2019},
author = {Salehi, S and Ardalan, A and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Garmaroudi, G and Zareiyan, A and Rahimiforoushani, A},
title = {Conceptual definition and framework of climate change and dust storm adaptation: a qualitative study.},
journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering},
volume = {17},
number = {2},
pages = {797-810},
doi = {10.1007/s40201-019-00396-5},
pmid = {32030153},
issn = {2052-336X},
abstract = {Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is a complex, multi-disciplinary, and culture-dependent concept. This study aims to explore a conceptual definition, the subjective framework of CCA including its domains, attributes, and consequences. The approach of qualitative conventional content analysis was considered for the explanation of the subjective concept, and at the same time as the collection process, data analysis was performed using Zhang and Wildemuth's method. The interview method was semi-structured and sampling was targeted and with maximum diversity. The interview was conducted with 22 qualified experts. The accuracy and validity of the data were ensured using Guba and Lincoln scientific accuracy criteria. Six main categories including &quot;sustainability, productivity, stability, empowerment, transformation, and flexibility&quot; were conceptualized in the theme of adaptation characteristics. &quot;Sustainable development, life improvement, response coordination and integration, creativity and innovation, resilience promotion, vulnerability reduction, effective management, and independence&quot; were the main categories in the theme of the adaptation consequences. According to the results, the following conceptual-functional definition can be presented for adaptation to climate change: &quot;CCA refers to the ability of system instability, sustainability, empowerment, productivity, flexibility, and transformation to climate change through the optimal use of resources, resistance, and coping, capacity building and opportunity creation&quot;. This definition is conceptual, it means that includes the main features of climate-adaptation and is also functional that is, includes adaptation strategies for climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32029806,
year = {2020},
author = {Chen, J and Wang, Z and Tam, CY and Lau, NC and Lau, DD and Mok, HY},
title = {Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {1965},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-58824-8},
pmid = {32029806},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {We have investigated changes of western North Pacific land-falling tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics due to warmer climate conditions, using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) technique. Historical simulations of three intense TCs making landfall in Pearl River Delta (PRD) were first conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The same cases were then re-simulated by superimposing near- (2015-2039) and far- (2075-2099) future temperature and humidity changes onto the background climate; these changes were derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Peak intensities of TCs (maximum surface wind in their lifetimes) are expected to increase by ~ (3) 10% in the (near) far future. Further experiments indicate that surface warming alone acts to intensify TCs by enhancing sea surface heat flux, while warmer atmosphere acts in the opposite way by increasing the stability. In the far future, associated storm surges are also estimated to increase by about 8.5%, computed by the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Combined with sea level rise and estimated land vertical displacement, TC-induced storm tide affecting PRD will increase by ~1 m in the future 2075-2099 period.},
}
@article {pmid32029628,
year = {2020},
author = {Soroye, P and Newbold, T and Kerr, J},
title = {Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents.},
journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)},
volume = {367},
number = {6478},
pages = {685-688},
doi = {10.1126/science.aax8591},
pmid = {32029628},
issn = {1095-9203},
abstract = {Climate change could increase species' extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species' historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species' extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species' local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change-related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.},
}
@article {pmid32029606,
year = {2020},
author = {Voosen, P},
title = {Climate change spurs global speedup of ocean currents.},
journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)},
volume = {367},
number = {6478},
pages = {612-613},
doi = {10.1126/science.367.6478.612},
pmid = {32029606},
issn = {1095-9203},
}
@article {pmid32028532,
year = {2020},
author = {Applequist, WL and Brinckmann, JA and Cunningham, AB and Hart, RE and Heinrich, M and Katerere, DR and van Andel, T},
title = {Erratum: Scientists' Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants.},
journal = {Planta medica},
volume = {86},
number = {1},
pages = {e1},
doi = {10.1055/a-1113-1659},
pmid = {32028532},
issn = {1439-0221},
}
@article {pmid32028251,
year = {2020},
author = {Leandro, J and Chen, KF and Wood, RR and Ludwig, R},
title = {A scalable flood-resilience-index for measuring climate change adaptation: Munich city.},
journal = {Water research},
volume = {173},
number = {},
pages = {115502},
doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2020.115502},
pmid = {32028251},
issn = {1879-2448},
abstract = {Climate change is affecting the frequency and intensity of rainfall extreme events worldwide. Despite the growing global awareness, developing flood resilient cities has proven to be a major challenge. This paper investigates the application of an event-based scalable Flood Resilience Index (FRI) for assessing climate change adaptation. Flood resilience is represented by three dimensions: physical, social and economic. A household climate adaptation is adopted consisting of a combination of a flood-proof gate with an indoor tank and a submersible pump system implemented in all houses. The climate related impact under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) is analysed for Munich with the CRCM5 Large-Ensemble. Results show that for Munich extreme heavy rainfall events are increasing. The FRI can successfully identify households and districts which: a) are mostly affected by heavy rainfall, b) benefit the most from the climate adaptation, and c) are the most resilient. For the most severe future scenario investigated the climate adaptation measure was able to improve 57% of all affected buildings within Maxvorstadt to an FRI equal to 1.0 during the event and recovery phase.},
}
@article {pmid32027429,
year = {2020},
author = {Iknayan, KJ and Beissinger, SR},
title = {In Transition: Avian Biogeographic Responses to a Century of Climate Change Across Desert Biomes.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15030},
pmid = {32027429},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Transition zones between biomes, also known as ecotones, are areas of pronounced ecological change. They are primarily maintained by abiotic factors and disturbance regimes that could hinder or promote species range shifts in response to climate change. We evaluated how climate change has affected metacommunity dynamics in two adjacent biomes and across their ecotone by resurveying 106 sites that were originally surveyed for avian diversity in the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. The Mojave, a warm desert, and the Great Basin, a cold desert, have distinct assemblages and meet along a contiguous, east-west boundary. Both deserts substantially warmed over the past century, but the Mojave dried while the Great Basin became wetter. We examined whether the distinctiveness and composition of desert avifaunas have changed, if species distributions shifted, and how the transition zone impacted turnover patterns. Avifauna change was characterized by (a) reduced occupancy, range contractions, and idiosyncratic species redistributions; (b) degradation of historic community structure, and increased taxonomic and climatic differentiation of the species inhabiting the two deserts; and (c) high levels of turnover at the transition zone but little range expansion of species from the warm, dry Mojave into the cooler, wetter Great Basin. Although both deserts now support more drier- and warmer-tolerant species, their bird communities still occupy distinct climatological space and differ significantly in climatic composition. Our results suggest a persistent transition zone between biomes contributes to limiting the redistribution of birds, and highlight the importance of understanding how transition zone dynamics impact responses to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid32009850,
year = {2017},
author = {Akter, S and Krupnik, TJ and Khanam, F},
title = {Climate change skepticism and index versus standard crop insurance demand in coastal Bangladesh.},
journal = {Regional environmental change},
volume = {17},
number = {},
pages = {2456-2466},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-017-1174-9},
pmid = {32009850},
issn = {1436-3798},
abstract = {This paper investigates if climate change skepticism, farmers' fatalistic beliefs, and insurance plan design influence interest in crop weather insurance. While studies of the influence of fatalism on disaster preparedness are common, the ways in which fatalism influences climate change skepticism, and in turn affects farmers' interest in crop insurance, have not been previously investigated. An additional objective was to understand farmers' preferences for index versus standard insurance options, the former entailing damage compensation based on post-hazard assessment, the latter tying damage compensation to a set of weather parameter thresholds. A discrete choice experiment was conducted with maize farmers on a climate-risk prone island in coastal Bangladesh. Most farmers were insurance averse. Those who chose insurance were however significantly more likely to select standard as opposed to index-based insurance. Insurance demand was significantly and positively correlated with farmers' concern about the adverse livelihood impacts of climate change. Farmers who exhibited fatalistic views regarding the consequences of climate change were significantly less likely to opt for insurance of either kind. These findings imply that the prospect for farmers' investment in insurance is conditioned by their understanding of climate change risks and the utility of adaptation, in addition to insurance scheme design.},
}
@article {pmid32009688,
year = {2017},
author = {Ford, JD and Labbé, J and Flynn, M and Araos, M and , },
title = {Readiness for climate change adaptation in the Arctic: a case study from Nunavut, Canada.},
journal = {Climatic change},
volume = {145},
number = {1},
pages = {85-100},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2071-4},
pmid = {32009688},
issn = {0165-0009},
abstract = {There is limited knowledge on institutional factors constraining and enabling climate change adaptation in Arctic regions, or the overall readiness of governing bodies and communities to develop, implement, and promote adaptation. This paper examines the preparedness of different levels of government to adapt in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, drawing upon semi-structured interviews with government personnel and organizations involved in adaptation. In the Government of Nunavut, there have been notable developments around adaptation planning and examples of adaptation champions, but readiness for adaptation is challenged by a number of factors including the existence of pressing socio-economic problems, and institutional and governmental barriers. Federally, there is evidence of high-level leadership on adaptation, the creation of adaptation programs, and allocation of funds for adaptation, although the focus has been mostly on researching adaptation options as opposed to supporting actual actions or policy change. The 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and increasing emphasis on climate change federally and in the Government of Nunavut, offer opportunities for advancing adaptation, but concrete steps are needed to ensure readiness is enhanced.},
}
@article {pmid32023669,
year = {2020},
author = {Chae, SM and Kim, D},
title = {Research Trends in Agenda-setting for Climate Change Adaptation Policy in the Public Health Sector in Korea.},
journal = {Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi},
volume = {53},
number = {1},
pages = {3-14},
doi = {10.3961/jpmph.19.326},
pmid = {32023669},
issn = {2233-4521},
support = {//Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs/ ; },
abstract = {Many studies have been conducted to assess the health effects of climate change in Korea. However, there has been a lack of consideration regarding how the results of these studies can be applied to relevant policies. The current study aims to examine research trends at the agenda-setting stage and to review future ways in which health-related adaptation to climate change can be addressed within national public health policy. A systematic review of previous studies of the health effects of climate change in Korea was conducted. Many studies have evaluated the effect of ambient temperature on health. A large number of studies have examined the effects on deaths and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, but a limitation of these studies is that it is difficult to apply their findings to climate change adaptation policy in the health sector. Many infectious disease studies were also identified, but these mainly focused on malaria. Regarding climate change-related factors other than ambient temperature, studies of the health effects of these factors (with the exception of air pollution) are limited. In Korea, it can be concluded that studies conducted as part of the agenda-setting stage are insufficient, both because studies on the health effects of climate change have not ventured beyond defining the problem and because health adaptation to climate change has not been set as an important agenda item. In the future, the sharing and development of relevant databases is necessary. In addition, the priority of agenda items should be determined as part of a government initiative.},
}
@article {pmid32023668,
year = {2020},
author = {Kwon, HJ},
title = {Climate Change and Health: More Research Is Still Needed.},
journal = {Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi},
volume = {53},
number = {1},
pages = {1-2},
doi = {10.3961/jpmph.20.005},
pmid = {32023668},
issn = {2233-4521},
}
@article {pmid32021924,
year = {2020},
author = {Cabrera, CVP and Selvaraj, JJ},
title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia&quot; [Heliyon Volume 6, Issue 1, January 2020, e03101].},
journal = {Heliyon},
volume = {6},
number = {1},
pages = {e03203},
doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03203},
pmid = {32021924},
issn = {2405-8440},
abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03101.].},
}
@article {pmid32018975,
year = {2020},
author = {Lababpour, A},
title = {The response of dust emission sources to climate change: Current and future simulation for southwest of Iran.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {714},
number = {},
pages = {136821},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136821},
pmid = {32018975},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {This study recognizes present dust emission sources (DESs) and their future projections in the southwest of Iran (2050 and 2070) through simulations performed by distribution models. The sites observation, raster dataset of climate layers and statistical models in the MaxEnt software were used to predict the current and future dust coverage and distribution, and their response to climate change using representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W m-2 projections. Statistical machine learning analysis show that 40.8% of the study area covering 25,810 km2 are susceptible to emit dust at the present time, and its projections will increase up to 28,839, 26,002, 26,071 and 26,124 km2 for RCP scenarios of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W m-2, respectively, by the year 2070. Temperature and precipitation assessments show that the most effective parameters determine future changes in DES coverage and distribution. The area under the curve (AUC) for DESs was 0.919, and results of Jackknife analyses show high sensitivity of dust sources to climate variables. The results illustrate that the present DESs are mainly driven by a combination of temperature, precipitation and land-use management, and the effects of nature are comparable to the anthropogenic activities, as humans continue to shape the DESs through energy, water and land use. The predicted increase of DESs may substantially worsen dust storms in the future, thereby affecting the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health. The outcomes of this study may support biocrust restoration technologies as a suitable option in sustainable management of arid lands and dust emission sources.},
}
@article {pmid32017877,
year = {2020},
author = {Prevéy, JS},
title = {Climate Change: Flowering Time May Be Shifting in Surprising Ways.},
journal = {Current biology : CB},
volume = {30},
number = {3},
pages = {R112-R114},
doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.12.009},
pmid = {32017877},
issn = {1879-0445},
abstract = {A new study examined how flowering phenology has changed over the past three decades along an elevational gradient. These findings indicate that climate change is shifting flowering time in complex ways, even across local spatial gradients.},
}
@article {pmid32017773,
year = {2020},
author = {Cordero, EC and Centeno, D and Todd, AM},
title = {The role of climate change education on individual lifetime carbon emissions.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {2},
pages = {e0206266},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0206266},
pmid = {32017773},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Strategies to mitigate climate change often center on clean technologies, such as electric vehicles and solar panels, while the mitigation potential of a quality educational experience is rarely discussed. In this paper, we investigate the long-term impact that an intensive one-year university course had on individual carbon emissions by surveying students at least five years after having taken the course. A majority of course graduates reported pro-environmental decisions (i.e., type of car to buy, food choices) that they attributed at least in part to experiences gained in the course. Furthermore, our carbon footprint analysis suggests that for the average course graduate, these decisions reduced their individual carbon emissions by 2.86 tons of CO2 per year. Surveys and focus group interviews identify that course graduates have developed a strong personal connection to climate change solutions, and this is realized in their daily behaviors and through their professional careers. The paper discusses in more detail the specific components of the course that are believed to be most impactful, and the uncertainties associated with this type of research design. Our analysis also demonstrates that if similar education programs were applied at scale, the potential reductions in carbon emissions would be of similar magnitude to other large-scale mitigation strategies, such as rooftop solar or electric vehicles.},
}
@article {pmid32017654,
year = {2020},
author = {Rudolph, L and Maizlish, N and North, S and Dervin, K},
title = {A Public Health Learning Collaborative on Climate Change for Urban Health Departments, 2016-2018.},
journal = {Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {33354920902468},
doi = {10.1177/0033354920902468},
pmid = {32017654},
issn = {1468-2877},
abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The objective of this project was to demonstrate and assess approaches of urban local health departments (LHDs) to simultaneously address climate change, health, and equity; incorporate climate change into program practice; and participate in their jurisdiction's climate change work.<br><br>METHODS: From January 2016 through March 2018, the Center for Climate Change and Health created learning activities, networking and relationship-building opportunities, communication platforms, and information sharing for 12 urban LHDs in the United States. We used administrative data and conducted interviews with participants and key informants to assess success in meeting learning collaborative goals.<br><br>RESULTS: LHDs developed diverse projects that incorporated internal capacity building, climate and health vulnerability assessments, surveillance, and community engagement. Projects fostered greater LHD engagement on climate change, broadened community partnerships, and furthered LHD integration into jurisdictions' climate planning. LHD engagement helped shift the dialogue in the community and jurisdiction about climate change to include public health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: LHDs have skills and expertise to rapidly partner with other governmental agencies and community-based organizations and to help communities identify vulnerabilities, take action to reduce the health harms of climate change, and-through Health in All Policies approaches and community partnerships-to ensure that climate policies are optimized for positive health and equity outcomes.},
}
@article {pmid32015865,
year = {2020},
author = {Sadykova, D and Scott, BE and De Dominicis, M and Wakelin, SL and Wolf, J and Sadykov, A},
title = {Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator-prey population distributions by 2050.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {2},
pages = {1069-1086},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.5973},
pmid = {32015865},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator-prey overlap in 2050 under the &quot;business-as-usual, worst-case&quot; climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth-averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator-prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator-prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator-prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade-offs in decisions involving issues of large-scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large-scale marine renewable developments.},
}
@article {pmid32015828,
year = {2020},
author = {Sloane, JD and Wiles, JR},
title = {Communicating the consensus on climate change to college biology majors: The importance of preaching to the choir.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {2},
pages = {594-601},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.5960},
pmid = {32015828},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {College and university biology majors who are not climate change deniers may yet be unaware of the degree of scientific consensus on climate change and unprepared to communicate about climate science to others. This study reports on a population of climate change accepting biology majors at a large, private research university in the American northeast. Our students tended to greatly underestimate the degree of scientific consensus around climate change, to be only moderately worried about climate change, and to be unconfident in their ability to communicate about the state of the scientific consensus around climate change. After an introduction to the scholarly literature that substantiates and quantifies the scientific consensus on climate change in the context of a course on biological research literature, our students showed significant increases in their estimates of the consensus on climate change, and their estimates were more accurate. Additionally, they became more worried about climate change as well as more confident in their ability to communicate about the scientific consensus to others. These results are in line with the Gateway Belief Model, which positions perception of scientific agreement on climate change as an important driver of acceptance and motivation toward action.},
}
@article {pmid32015519,
year = {2020},
author = {Kay, JE},
title = {Early climate models successfully predicted global warming.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {578},
number = {7793},
pages = {45-46},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00243-w},
pmid = {32015519},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid32015382,
year = {2020},
author = {Heikkinen, RK and Leikola, N and Aalto, J and Aapala, K and Kuusela, S and Luoto, M and Virkkala, R},
title = {Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {1678},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-58638-8},
pmid = {32015382},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (PA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nation-wide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The high-velocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. Even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied PAs by the end of this century. Thus, in PA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable.},
}
@article {pmid32013462,
year = {2020},
author = {Zheng, Y and Yang, F and Duan, J and Sun, X and Fu, L and Kurths, J},
title = {The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise.},
journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)},
volume = {30},
number = {1},
pages = {013132},
doi = {10.1063/1.5129003},
pmid = {32013462},
issn = {1089-7682},
abstract = {An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, and an α-stable non-Gaussian Lévy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a comprehensive approach of the most probable transition path for systems under α-stable Lévy noise is still lacking. We develop here a probabilistic framework, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, to investigate the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy fluctuations. We find that a period of the cold climate state can be interrupted by a sharp shift to the warmer one due to larger noise jumps with low frequency. Additionally, the climate change for warming 1.5°C under an enhanced greenhouse effect generates a steplike growth process. These results provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate transitions triggered by a Lévy process.},
}
@article {pmid32009621,
year = {2020},
author = {Ludviksdottir, D},
title = {[Climate change and respiratory diseases].},
journal = {Laeknabladid},
volume = {106},
number = {2},
pages = {59},
doi = {10.17992/lbl.2020.02.370},
pmid = {32009621},
issn = {1670-4959},
}
@article {pmid32007888,
year = {2020},
author = {Kuefner, W and Hofmann, AM and Geist, J and Raeder, U},
title = {Evaluating climate change impacts on mountain lakes by applying the new silicification value to paleolimnological samples.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {715},
number = {},
pages = {136913},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136913},
pmid = {32007888},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The evaluation of climate change impact on lakes typically relies on statistical methods like the reorganisation of organism communities (beta diversity) or transfer functions. A new method uses the silicification of diatoms that correlates with temperature and nutrients. The so-called silicification value (SiVa) overcomes problems of descriptive statistics or absent indicator species. Averaged over diatom communities, it related inversely to lake surface temperatures in mountain lakes. Hence, its change over time (δ SiVa) in a lake was hypothesised to reflect global change-driven lake warming quantitatively, which supposedly climaxes in shallow lakes. Sixteen different δ SiVa calculation approaches were tested. They (1) included or excluded planktic diatoms, (2) integrated fixed or variable time series referring to climate data or changes in diatom assemblages, (3) employed a top-bottom or regression approach and (4) expressed the δ SiVa as relative or absolute values. Subfossil diatom assemblages from 24 sediment cores from Bavarian and north Tyrolian mountain lakes served as sample set. All possible approaches were evaluated for their explanatory power for lake characteristics using GLMs. The top-bottom benthic approach with fixed climate data-based time series appeared to be the best model based on AIC and the extent of variable integration. In line with the hypothesis, the strongest decrease of δ SiVa was evident in most shallow lakes. Segmented regression further highlighted a positive correlation with depth if shallower than 10 m. By referring to the negative SiVa-summer temperature relation, δ SiVa also enabled the quantification of lake warming within the last decades, which ranged mainly between 0.1 °C and 1.1 °C per decade, consistent with existing literature. Additionally, a 100 year temperature reconstruction from a varved sediment core successfully validated the approach. Further studies may focus and extend its application to deeper lakes, but it can already serve as a powerful tool in palaeolimnological studies of shallow lakes like hard-water mountain lakes.},
}
@article {pmid32006117,
year = {2020},
author = {Hájková, L and Kožnarová, V and Možný, M and Bartošová, L},
title = {Influence of climate change on flowering season of birch in the Czech Republic.},
journal = {International journal of biometeorology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01869-1},
pmid = {32006117},
issn = {1432-1254},
support = {Program I (NPU I), grant number LO1415//Ministerstvo Školství, Mládeže a Tělovýchovy/ ; Institutional Support Program for Long Term Conceptual Development of Research Institution//Ministerstvo Školství, Mládeže a Tělovýchovy/ ; },
abstract = {This paper analyzes a long-term (1991-2019) flowering period of birch in the Czech Republic. Temporal and spatial evaluation in timing of beginning and end of flowering (Fbegin and Fend) and flowering period (Fperiod) of Betula pendula were investigated in different zones of the Czech Republic. The field observations were carried out at 44 sites of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute phenological network; the detailed analysis including growing degree days (GDD) evaluation to Fbegin and Fend onsets and time of flowering were made at 9 sites in different altitudes. The trends and Pearson's correlation coefficients between Fbegin (Fend) and GDDs were calculated as well. The timing of both phenological stages showed a significant advance to earlier onsets (e.g., - 7.0 d per decade at Měděnec station) and the time of flowering shortens (e.g., - 3.8 d per decade at Rokytnice station). Nevertheless, the most marked shift was observed for mountain area in the north-western and north-eastern part of the Czech Republic. In contrast, the smallest shift was found in the southern part of the Czech Republic. The shift of the GDD values fluctuates from negative to positive values. Pearson's correlation coefficients calculated for both phenophases and period of flowering of Betula pendula showed the highest values in Fperiod (e.g., 0.846 at Modrava station) and in Fend (e.g., 0.711 at Rokytnice station) as well. Thus, our results indicate due to global warming symptoms that birch pollen allergy may appear earlier in the year but for a shorter period.},
}
@article {pmid32005920,
year = {2020},
author = {Fox, L and Stukins, S and Hill, T and Miller, CG},
title = {Quantifying the Effect of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Calcifying Plankton.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {1620},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-58501-w},
pmid = {32005920},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Widely regarded as an imminent threat to our oceans, ocean acidification has been documented in all oceanic basins. Projected changes in seawater chemistry will have catastrophic biotic effects due to ocean acidification hindering biogenic carbonate production, which will in turn lead to substantial changes in marine ecosystems. However, previous attempts to quantify the effect of acidification on planktonic calcifying organisms has relied on laboratory based studies with substantial methodological limitations. This has been overcome by comparing historic plankton tows from the seminal HMS Challenger Expedition (1872-1876) with the recent Tara Oceans expedition material (2009-2016). Nano CT-scans of selected equatorial Pacific Ocean planktonic foraminifera, have revealed that all modern specimens had up to 76% thinner shells than their historic counterparts. The &quot;Challenger Revisited&quot; project highlights the potential of historic ocean collections as a tool to investigate ocean acidification since the early Industrial Revolution. Further analyses of such biotic archives will enable researchers to quantify the effects of anthropogenic climate change across the globe.},
}
@article {pmid32005319,
year = {2020},
author = {Wu, MY and Shu, CC and Lin, HH},
title = {Authors reply to letter to the Editor &quot;Chronic kidney disease, tuberculosis and climate change&quot;.},
journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease},
volume = {24},
number = {1},
pages = {133-134},
doi = {10.5588/ijtld.19.0581},
pmid = {32005319},
issn = {1815-7920},
}
@article {pmid32005318,
year = {2020},
author = {Harries, AD},
title = {Chronic kidney disease, tuberculosis and climate change.},
journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease},
volume = {24},
number = {1},
pages = {132-133},
doi = {10.5588/ijtld.19.0556},
pmid = {32005318},
issn = {1815-7920},
}
@article {pmid32002236,
year = {2019},
author = {Lacetera, N},
title = {Impact of climate change on animal health and welfare.},
journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {26-31},
doi = {10.1093/af/vfy030},
pmid = {32002236},
issn = {2160-6064},
}
@article {pmid32002235,
year = {2019},
author = {Rust, JM},
title = {The impact of climate change on extensive and intensive livestock production systems.},
journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {20-25},
doi = {10.1093/af/vfy028},
pmid = {32002235},
issn = {2160-6064},
}
@article {pmid32003808,
year = {2020},
author = {Harrison, S and Macmillan, A and Rudd, C},
title = {Framing climate change and health: New Zealand's online news media.},
journal = {Health promotion international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/heapro/daz130},
pmid = {32003808},
issn = {1460-2245},
abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to public health worldwide. Conversely, well-designed action to mitigate climate change offers numerous opportunities to improve health and equity. Despite this, comprehensive climate action has not been forthcoming within New Zealand. The media plays an important role in shaping public opinion and support for policy change. Previous literature has suggested that certain types of framing may be more effective than others at encouraging support for climate action and policy. This includes positive, personally relevant framing, as well as key journalistic tools which appear counter-intuitive, such as an increase in human interest stories and 'sensationalist' framing. We undertook a qualitative thematic analysis of climate change and health media coverage in two online New Zealand news outlets to understand how the issue was framed, and how it may be framed more effectively to encourage climate action. We compared the framing used by journalists in mainstream media outlet the New Zealand Herald Online (NZHO) with that of contributors to independent news repository site Scoop. Content in both outlets emphasized the threat unchecked climate change poses to health, which overshadowed the positive health opportunities of climate action. The NZHO was more prone to negative framing, and more likely to favour stories which could be sensationalized and were international in scope. We considered the possible effectiveness of the framing we found for attracting greater media attention and encouraging support for climate action and policy.},
}
@article {pmid32002323,
year = {2020},
author = {Zhuang, Q and Wu, S and Feng, X and Niu, Y},
title = {Analysis and prediction of vegetation dynamics under the background of climate change in Xinjiang, China.},
journal = {PeerJ},
volume = {8},
number = {},
pages = {e8282},
doi = {10.7717/peerj.8282},
pmid = {32002323},
issn = {2167-8359},
abstract = {Background: Vegetation dynamics is defined as a significant indictor in regulating terrestrial carbon balance and climate change, and this issue is important for the evaluation of climate change. Though much work has been done concerning the correlations among vegetation dynamics, precipitation and temperature, the related questions about relationships between vegetation dynamics and other climatic factors (e.g., specific humidity, net radiation, soil moisture) have not been thoroughly considered. Understanding these questions is of primary importance in developing policies to address climate change.<br><br>Methods: In this study, the least squares regression analysis method was used to simulate the trend of vegetation dynamics based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1981 to 2018. A partial correlation analysis method was used to explore the relationship between vegetation dynamics and climate change; and further,the revised greyscale model was applied to predict the future growth trend of natural vegetation.<br><br>Results: The Mann-Kendall test results showed that th e air temperature rose sharply in 1997 and had been in a state of high fluctuations since then. Strong changes in hydrothermal conditions had major impact on vegetation dynamics in the area. Specifically, the NDVI value of natural vegetation showed an increasing trend from 1981 to 2018, and the same changes occurred in the precipitation. From 1981 to 1997, the values of natural vegetation increased at a rate of 0.0016 per year. From 1999 to 2009, the NDVI value decreased by an average rate of 0.0025 per year. From 2010 to 2018, the values began an increasing trend and reached a peak in 2017, with an average annual rate of 0.0033. The high vegetation dynamics areas were mainly concentrated in the north and south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, the Ili River Valley and the Altay area. The greyscale prediction results showed that the annual average NDVI values of natural vegetation may present a fluctuating increasing trend. The NDVI value in 2030 is 0.0196 higher than that in 2018, with an increase of 6.18%.<br><br>Conclusions: Our results indicate that: (i) the variations of climatic factors have caused a huge change in the hydrothermal conditions in Xinjiang; (ii) the vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang showed obvious volatility, and then in the end stage of the study were higher than the initial stage the vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang showed a staged increasing trend; (iii) the vegetation dynamics were affected by many factors,of which precipitation was the main reason; (iv) in the next decade, the vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang will show an increasing trend.},
}
@article {pmid32002233,
year = {2019},
author = {Pasqui, M and Di Giuseppe, E},
title = {Climate change, future warming, and adaptation in Europe.},
journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {6-11},
doi = {10.1093/af/vfy036},
pmid = {32002233},
issn = {2160-6064},
}
@article {pmid32002232,
year = {2019},
author = {Bernabucci, U},
title = {Climate change: impact on livestock and how can we adapt.},
journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {3-5},
doi = {10.1093/af/vfy039},
pmid = {32002232},
issn = {2160-6064},
}
@article {pmid32001946,
year = {2020},
author = {Block, S and Alexander, JM and Levine, JM},
title = {Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change.},
journal = {Oikos (Copenhagen, Denmark)},
volume = {129},
number = {2},
pages = {184-193},
doi = {10.1111/oik.06667},
pmid = {32001946},
issn = {0030-1299},
abstract = {Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~ 3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species' flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species' cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species' phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.},
}
@article {pmid32001223,
year = {2019},
author = {Wynkoop, W},
title = {Climate change, air pollution &amp; health.},
journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2019.12.006},
pmid = {32001223},
issn = {1878-7541},
}
@article {pmid32000327,
year = {2020},
author = {Warnatzsch, EA and Reay, DS},
title = {Assessing climate change projections and impacts on Central Malawi's maize yield: The risk of maladaptation.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {711},
number = {},
pages = {134845},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134845},
pmid = {32000327},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Malawi is listed as a Low-Income Food-Deficit Country (LIFDC) by the United Nations (UN), with high levels of poverty, malnutrition, and undernutrition. The maize grown in the Central Region of Malawi represents approximately a quarter of the total Malawian population's calorie intake, is a large source of local income, and a significant contributor to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While maize has been shown to be more resilient to climatic changes than many other grain crops, the predominantly rain-fed maize grown in Central Malawi has experienced many shocks from severe weather events in the past. Using the ensemble mean of 20 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), this study shows that temperatures in Central Malawi are projected to increase from the 1971-2000 baseline by between 1.4 and 1.6 °C by 2035 and 1.9 and 2.5 °C by 2055 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, but precipitation projections are more uncertain. Using the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) AquaCrop model, this study assesses the impact of future warming and three precipitation scenarios on two cultivars of maize planted on three separate dates in Central Malawi's summer planting season. The results indicate that if precipitation levels follow the ensemble average or maximum projection, then moving to a later planting date and a slower-developing cultivar may result in increasing yields compared to the baseline scenario. However, under a minimum precipitation projection, the results are less positive, with decreasing yields seen for both cultivars and all planting dates. The uncertainty around future precipitation therefore poses a significant risk of maladaptation and highlights the need for more robust precipitation projections in the area before climate model outputs are used as a primary driver for decision-making in Central Malawi's maize cultivation.},
}
@article {pmid32000080,
year = {2020},
author = {Akamatsu, F and Okuda, M and Fujii, T},
title = {Long-term responses to climate change of the carbon and oxygen stable isotopic compositions and gelatinization temperature of rice.},
journal = {Food chemistry},
volume = {315},
number = {},
pages = {126239},
doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2020.126239},
pmid = {32000080},
issn = {1873-7072},
abstract = {The stable isotopic compositions of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) in rice are often used to confirm its authenticity. The gelatinization temperature is a crucial factor in alcoholic fermentation. However, little is known about the isotopic and thermal responses of rice to climate change. We show that in sake rice grown annually in the same paddy field from 1994 to 2013, the δ13C (-27.4‰ to -25.9‰) and δ18O values (20.4‰ to 27.0‰) correlated negatively with the mean daily minimum air temperature and precipitation, and positively with the hours of sunshine during grain-filling. In contrast, of the air temperatures tested, the gelatinization temperature of the rice grains (63.2°C to 70.0 °C) correlated positively and most strongly with the mean daily mean air temperature. Thus, we identified the mean daily minimum temperature during grain-filling, a nocturnal temperature, as a major factor affecting the isotopic and thermal variations in rice grains.},
}
@article {pmid32000001,
year = {2020},
author = {Shrestha, S and Neupane, S and Mohanasundaram, S and Pandey, VP},
title = {Mapping groundwater resiliency under climate change scenarios: A case study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {183},
number = {},
pages = {109149},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109149},
pmid = {32000001},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {Groundwater resources of Kathmandu Valley in Nepal are under immense pressure from multiple stresses, including climate change. Due to over-extraction, groundwater resources are depleting, leading to social, environmental and economic problems. Climate change might add additional pressure by altering groundwater recharge rates and availability of groundwater. Mapping groundwater resilience to climate change can aid in understanding the dynamics of groundwater systems, facilitating the development of strategies for sustainable groundwater management. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the impact of climate change on groundwater resources and mapping the groundwater resiliency of Kathmandu Valley under different climate change scenarios. The future climate projected using the climate data of RCM's namely ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM for three future periods: near future (2010-2039), mid future (2040-2069) and far future (2070-2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were bias corrected and fed into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrological model, to estimate future groundwater recharge. The results showed a decrease in groundwater recharge in future ranging from 3.3 to 50.7 mm/yr under RCP 4.5 and 19-102.1 mm/yr under RCP 8.5 scenario. The GMS-MODFLOW model was employed to estimate the future groundwater level of Kathmandu Valley. The model revealed that the groundwater level is expected to decrease in future. Based on the results, a groundwater resiliency map of Kathmandu Valley was developed. The results suggest that groundwater in the northern and southern area of the valley are highly resilient to climate change compared to the central area. The results will be very useful in the formulation and implementation of adaptation strategies to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the groundwater resources of Kathmandu Valley.},
}
@article {pmid31994762,
year = {2020},
author = {Rosner, D},
title = {Tilting at Windmills: Global Warming and Global Warnings.},
journal = {The Milbank quarterly},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/1468-0009.12447},
pmid = {31994762},
issn = {1468-0009},
}
@article {pmid31994267,
year = {2020},
author = {Dullinger, I and Gattringer, A and Wessely, J and Moser, D and Plutzar, C and Willner, W and Egger, C and Gaube, V and Haberl, H and Mayer, A and Bohner, A and Gilli, C and Pascher, K and Essl, F and Dullinger, S},
title = {A socio-ecological model for predicting impacts of land-use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14977},
pmid = {31994267},
issn = {1365-2486},
support = {//Austrian Academy of Sciences/ ; },
abstract = {Climate and land-use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent-based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine-grained land-use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land-use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio-economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land-use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land-use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land-use changes because alternative future socio-economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land-use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land-use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi-natural habitat. We conclude that agent-based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.},
}
@article {pmid31993386,
year = {2019},
author = {Anwar, A and Anwar, S and Ayub, M and Nawaz, F and Hyder, S and Khan, N and Malik, I},
title = {Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Evidence from Highly Vulnerable Countries.},
journal = {Iranian journal of public health},
volume = {48},
number = {12},
pages = {2187-2195},
pmid = {31993386},
issn = {2251-6085},
abstract = {Background: Climate change is an alarming challenge for humanity at large due to its mediating role in emergence and spread of infectious diseases like cholera and malaria. This study was conducted to examine the effect of climate change and some socio-economic factors on incidence of infectious diseases.<br><br>Methods: We used country level panel data over the 1990-2017 period using panel ARDL-PMG technique on highly affected countries from climate change.<br><br>Results: There is a long run co-integrating relationship among climate change, socio-economic factors and prevalence of infectious diseases. Climate change, as measured by the temperature, is contributing to the spread of infectious diseases.<br><br>Conclusion: This is the first study giving evidence of the impact of climate change on incidence of infectious diseases as can be seen from highly vulnerable countries to climate change. It is recommended to improve the level of education along with public health and town planning to reduce the incidence of infectious diseases.},
}
@article {pmid31993084,
year = {2020},
author = {Scheiner, SM and Barfield, M and Holt, RD},
title = {The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. XVII. Response to climate change.},
journal = {Evolutionary applications},
volume = {13},
number = {2},
pages = {388-399},
doi = {10.1111/eva.12876},
pmid = {31993084},
issn = {1752-4571},
abstract = {The world is changing at a rapid rate, threatening extinction for a large part of the world's biota. One potential response to those altered conditions is to evolve so as to be able to persist in place. Such evolution includes not just traits themselves, but also the phenotypic plasticity of those traits. We used individual-based simulations to explore the potential of an evolving phenotypic plasticity to increase the probability of persistence in the response to either a step change or continual, directional change in the environment accompanied by within-generation random environmental fluctuations. Populations could evolve by altering both their nonplastic and plastic genetic components. We found that phenotypic plasticity enhanced survival and adaptation if that plasticity was not costly. If plasticity was costly, for it to be beneficial the phenotypic magnitude of plasticity had to be great enough in the initial generations to overcome those costs. These results were not sensitive to either the magnitude of the within-generation correlation between the environment of development and the environment of selection or the magnitude of the environmental fluctuations, except for very small phenotypic magnitudes of plasticity. So, phenotypic plasticity has the potential to enhance survival; however, more data are needed on the ubiquity of trait plasticity, the extent of costs of plasticity, and the rate of mutational input of genetic variation for plasticity.},
}
@article {pmid31991679,
year = {2020},
author = {Iriti, M and Vitalini, S},
title = {Sustainable Crop Protection, Global Climate Change, Food Security and Safety-Plant Immunity at the Crossroads.},
journal = {Vaccines},
volume = {8},
number = {1},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/vaccines8010042},
pmid = {31991679},
issn = {2076-393X},
abstract = {The development of novel strategies of plant disease management is crucial in view of the growing demand of sustainability in agri-food chains. The use of agrochemicals is not without risk for the consumer and environment in terms of their residues in food, feed, water bodies and harmful effects on nontarget organisms. However, because of the high global annual yield losses attributable to plant diseases and also due to global climate changes that have exacerbated some phytosanitary emergences, chemical input in agriculture is mandatory. In this complex scenario, the use of agrochemicals that boost the plant immune system represents a relatively novel approach in crop protection. These plant protection products are not antimicrobial or fungicidal agents, but include both natural and synthetic elicitors and plant activators that only target the host immune system, with no biocide mechanism of action. In general, these products present a number of strengths: they leave no residue and should not select resistant pathogen strains, they can be used to control virus diseases, and can increase the levels of bioactive phytochemicals in plant foods.},
}
@article {pmid31988725,
year = {2020},
author = {Ahrens, CW and Andrew, ME and Mazanec, RA and Ruthrof, KX and Challis, A and Hardy, G and Byrne, M and Tissue, DT and Rymer, PD},
title = {Plant functional traits differ in adaptability and are predicted to be differentially affected by climate change.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {232-248},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.5890},
pmid = {31988725},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Climate change is testing the resilience of forests worldwide pushing physiological tolerance to climatic extremes. Plant functional traits have been shown to be adapted to climate and have evolved patterns of trait correlations (similar patterns of distribution) and coordinations (mechanistic trade-off). We predicted that traits would differentiate between populations associated with climatic gradients, suggestive of adaptive variation, and correlated traits would adapt to future climate scenarios in similar ways.We measured genetically determined trait variation and described patterns of correlation for seven traits: photochemical reflectance index (PRI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf size (LS), specific leaf area (SLA), δ13C (integrated water-use efficiency, WUE), nitrogen concentration (NCONC), and wood density (WD). All measures were conducted in an experimental plantation on 960 trees sourced from 12 populations of a key forest canopy species in southwestern Australia.Significant differences were found between populations for all traits. Narrow-sense heritability was significant for five traits (0.15-0.21), indicating that natural selection can drive differentiation; however, SLA (0.08) and PRI (0.11) were not significantly heritable. Generalized additive models predicted trait values across the landscape for current and future climatic conditions (>90% variance). The percent change differed markedly among traits between current and future predictions (differing as little as 1.5% (δ13C) or as much as 30% (PRI)). Some trait correlations were predicted to break down in the future (SLA:NCONC, δ13C:PRI, and NCONC:WD).Synthesis: Our results suggest that traits have contrasting genotypic patterns and will be subjected to different climate selection pressures, which may lower the working optimum for functional traits. Further, traits are independently associated with different climate factors, indicating that some trait correlations may be disrupted in the future. Genetic constraints and trait correlations may limit the ability for functional traits to adapt to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid31988428,
year = {2020},
author = {Moulton, AD},
title = {Needed: new authority to build public health system capacity for climate change health threats.},
journal = {Journal of public health policy},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1057/s41271-019-00210-4},
pmid = {31988428},
issn = {1745-655X},
abstract = {Strong public health system capacity is essential to protection against climate change health threats. Taken as a whole, the United States (U.S.) public health system lacks the requisite capacity. Unlike some other countries, the U.S. federal government and most state and local governments give low priority to strengthening public health capacity even though states and localities have begun investing billions of dollars in strategies to protect physical infrastructure from climate change-related severe weather events. I recommend enactment of new legislative authority specifically to develop public health capacity more rapidly and completely. Doing so can give new impetus to construction of, ultimately, a national public health system able to protect all those who reside in the U.S. from climate change health threats and to serve as a model for building such system capacity globally.},
}
@article {pmid31988113,
year = {2020},
author = {Morales-Castilla, I and García de Cortázar-Atauri, I and Cook, BI and Lacombe, T and Parker, A and van Leeuwen, C and Nicholas, KA and Wolkovich, EM},
title = {Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1906731117},
pmid = {31988113},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Agrobiodiversity-the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices-is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531-539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261-270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation-phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change-including in major winegrowing regions-as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.},
}
@article {pmid31987640,
year = {2020},
author = {Schleuning, M and Neuschulz, EL and Albrecht, J and Bender, IMA and Bowler, DE and Dehling, DM and Fritz, SA and Hof, C and Mueller, T and Nowak, L and Sorensen, MC and Böhning-Gaese, K and Kissling, WD},
title = {Trait-Based Assessments of Climate-Change Impacts on Interacting Species.},
journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.12.010},
pmid = {31987640},
issn = {1872-8383},
abstract = {Plant-animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid31985222,
year = {2020},
author = {Yang, Y and Guo, Y and O'Brien, A and Lins, TF and Rochman, CM and Sinton, D},
title = {Biological responses to climate change and nanoplastics are altered in concert: full-factorial screening reveals effects of multiple stressors on primary producers.},
journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b07040},
pmid = {31985222},
issn = {1520-5851},
abstract = {While the combined presence of global climate change and nano-sized plastic particle (i.e., nanoplastic) pollution is clear, the potential for interactions between climate-change-shifting environmental parameters and nanoplastics is largely unknown. Here, we aim to understand how nanoplastics will affect species in concert with climate change in freshwater ecosystems. We utilized a high-throughput full-factorial experimental system and the model photosynthetic microorganism Scenedesmus obliquus to capture the complexity of interacting environmental stressors, including CO2, temperature, light, and nanoplastics. Under a massive number of conditions (2000+), we consistently found concentration-dependent inhibition of algal growth in the presence of polystyrene nanoparticles, highlighting a threat to primary productivity in aquatic ecosystems. Our high-treatment experiment also identified crucial interactions between nanoplastics and climate change. We found that relatively low temperature and ambient CO2 exacerbated damage induced by nanoplastics, while elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures reflecting climate change scenarios somewhat attenuated nanoplastic toxicity. Further, we revealed that nanoplastics may modulate light responses, implying that risks of nanoplastic pollution may also depend on local irradiation conditions. Our study highlights the coupled impacts of nanoplastics and climate change, as well as the value of full-factorial screening in predicting biological responses to multifaceted global change.},
}
@article {pmid31984414,
year = {2020},
author = {Taylor, SA},
title = {The Politics and Impact of Climate Change on Health Policy.},
journal = {Health &amp; social work},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/hsw/hlz042},
pmid = {31984414},
issn = {1545-6854},
}
@article {pmid31983344,
year = {2020},
author = {Seddon, N and Chausson, A and Berry, P and Girardin, CAJ and Smith, A and Turner, B},
title = {Understanding the value and limits of nature-based solutions to climate change and other global challenges.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190120},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0120},
pmid = {31983344},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {There is growing awareness that 'nature-based solutions' (NbS) can help to protect us from climate change impacts while slowing further warming, supporting biodiversity and securing ecosystem services. However, the potential of NbS to provide the intended benefits has not been rigorously assessed. There are concerns over their reliability and cost-effectiveness compared to engineered alternatives, and their resilience to climate change. Trade-offs can arise if climate mitigation policy encourages NbS with low biodiversity value, such as afforestation with non-native monocultures. This can result in maladaptation, especially in a rapidly changing world where biodiversity-based resilience and multi-functional landscapes are key. Here, we highlight the rise of NbS in climate policy-focusing on their potential for climate change adaptation as well as mitigation-and discuss barriers to their evidence-based implementation. We outline the major financial and governance challenges to implementing NbS at scale, highlighting avenues for further research. As climate policy turns increasingly towards greenhouse gas removal approaches such as afforestation, we stress the urgent need for natural and social scientists to engage with policy makers. They must ensure that NbS can achieve their potential to tackle both the climate and biodiversity crisis while also contributing to sustainable development. This will require systemic change in the way we conduct research and run our institutions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31983343,
year = {2020},
author = {Roberts, CM and O'Leary, BC and Hawkins, JP},
title = {Climate change mitigation and nature conservation both require higher protected area targets.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190121},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0121},
pmid = {31983343},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {Nations of the world have, to date, pursued nature protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies separately. Both efforts have failed to achieve the scale of action needed to halt biodiversity loss or mitigate climate change. We argue that success can be achieved by aligning targets for biodiversity protection with the habitat protection and restoration necessary to bring down greenhouse gas concentrations and promote natural and societal adaptation to climate change. Success, however, will need much higher targets for environmental protection than the present 10% of sea and 17% of land. A new target of 30% of the sea given high levels of protection from exploitation and harm by 2030 is under consideration and similar targets are being discussed for terrestrial habitats. We make the case here that these higher targets, if achieved, would make the transition to a warmer world slower and less damaging for nature and people. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31983341,
year = {2020},
author = {Hobbie, SE and Grimm, NB},
title = {Nature-based approaches to managing climate change impacts in cities.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190124},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0124},
pmid = {31983341},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {Managing and adapting to climate change in urban areas will become increasingly important as urban populations grow, especially because unique features of cities amplify climate change impacts. High impervious cover exacerbates impacts of climate warming through urban heat island effects and of heavy rainfall by magnifying runoff and flooding. Concentration of human settlements along rivers and coastal zones increases exposure of people and infrastructure to climate change hazards, often disproportionately affecting those who are least prepared. Nature-based strategies (NBS), which use living organisms, soils and sediments, and/or landscape features to reduce climate change hazards, hold promise as being more flexible, multi-functional and adaptable to an uncertain and non-stationary climate future than traditional approaches. Nevertheless, future research should address the effectiveness of NBS for reducing climate change impacts and whether they can be implemented at scales appropriate to climate change hazards and impacts. Further, there is a need for accurate and comprehensive cost-benefit analyses that consider disservices and co-benefits, relative to grey alternatives, and how costs and benefits are distributed across different communities. NBS are most likely to be effective and fair when they match the scale of the challenge, are implemented with input from diverse voices and are appropriate to specific social, cultural, ecological and technological contexts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31983340,
year = {2020},
author = {Sandom, CJ and Middleton, O and Lundgren, E and Rowan, J and Schowanek, SD and Svenning, JC and Faurby, S},
title = {Trophic rewilding presents regionally specific opportunities for mitigating climate change.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190125},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0125},
pmid = {31983340},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {Large-bodied mammalian herbivores can influence processes that exacerbate or mitigate climate change. Herbivore impacts are, in turn, influenced by predators that place top-down forcing on prey species within a given body size range. Here, we explore how the functional composition of terrestrial large-herbivore and -carnivore guilds varies between three mammal distribution scenarios: Present-Natural, Current-Day and Extant-Native Trophic (ENT) Rewilding. Considering the effects of herbivore species weakly influenced by top-down forcing, we quantify the relative influence keystone large-herbivore guilds have on methane emissions, woody vegetation expansion, fire dynamics, large-seed dispersal, and nitrogen and phosphorus transport potential. We find strong regional differences in the number of herbivores under weak top-down regulation between our three scenarios, with important implications for how they will influence climate change relevant processes. Under the Present-Natural non-ruminant, megaherbivore, browsers were a particularly important guild across much of the world. Megaherbivore extinction and range contraction and the arrival of livestock mean large, ruminant, grazers have become more dominant. ENT Rewilding can restore the Afrotropics and the Indo-Malay realm to the Present-Natural benchmark, but causes top-down forcing of the largest herbivores to become commonplace elsewhere. ENT Rewilding will reduce methane emissions, but does not maximize natural climate solution potential. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31983335,
year = {2020},
author = {Lawler, JJ and Rinnan, DS and Michalak, JL and Withey, JC and Randels, CR and Possingham, HP},
title = {Planning for climate change through additions to a national protected area network: implications for cost and configuration.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190117},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0117},
pmid = {31983335},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {Expanding the network of protected areas is a core strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. Here, we explore the impacts on reserve network cost and configuration associated with planning for climate change in the USA using networks that prioritize areas projected to be climatically suitable for 1460 species both today and into the future, climatic refugia and areas likely to facilitate climate-driven species movements. For 14% of the species, networks of sites selected solely to protect areas currently climatically suitable failed to provide climatically suitable habitat in the future. Protecting sites climatically suitable for species today and in the future significantly changed the distribution of priority sites across the USA-increasing relative protection in the northeast, northwest and central USA. Protecting areas projected to retain their climatic suitability for species cost 59% more than solely protecting currently suitable areas. Including all climatic refugia and 20% of areas that facilitate climate-driven movements increased the cost by another 18%. Our results indicate that protecting some types of climatic refugia may be a relatively inexpensive adaptation strategy. Moreover, although addressing climate change in conservation plans will have significant implications for the configuration of networks, the increased cost of doing so may be relatively modest. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31983332,
year = {2020},
author = {Solan, M and Bennett, EM and Mumby, PJ and Leyland, J and Godbold, JA},
title = {Benthic-based contributions to climate change mitigation and adaptation.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190107},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0107},
pmid = {31983332},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {Innovative solutions to improve the condition and resilience of ecosystems are needed to address societal challenges and pave the way towards a climate-resilient future. Nature-based solutions offer the potential to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems while providing multiple other benefits for health, the economy, society and the environment. However, the implementation of nature-based solutions stems from a discourse that is almost exclusively derived from a terrestrial and urban context and assumes that risk reduction is resolved locally. We argue that this position ignores the importance of complex ecological interactions across a range of temporal and spatial scales and misses the substantive contribution from marine ecosystems, which are notably absent from most climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that extend beyond coastal disaster management. Here, we consider the potential of sediment-dwelling fauna and flora to inform and support nature-based solutions, and how the ecology of benthic environments can enhance adaptation plans. We illustrate our thesis with examples of practice that are generating, or have the potential to deliver, transformative change and discuss where further innovation might be applied. Finally, we take a reflective look at the realized and potential capacity of benthic-based solutions to contribute to adaptation plans and offer our perspectives on the suitability and shortcomings of past achievements and the prospective rewards from sensible prioritization of future research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31983329,
year = {2020},
author = {Malhi, Y and Franklin, J and Seddon, N and Solan, M and Turner, MG and Field, CB and Knowlton, N},
title = {Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190104},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0104},
pmid = {31983329},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31983326,
year = {2020},
author = {Turner, MG and Calder, WJ and Cumming, GS and Hughes, TP and Jentsch, A and LaDeau, SL and Lenton, TM and Shuman, BN and Turetsky, MR and Ratajczak, Z and Williams, JW and Williams, AP and Carpenter, SR},
title = {Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190105},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0105},
pmid = {31983326},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31983325,
year = {2020},
author = {Lavorel, S and Locatelli, B and Colloff, MJ and Bruley, E},
title = {Co-producing ecosystem services for adapting to climate change.},
journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences},
volume = {375},
number = {1794},
pages = {20190119},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0119},
pmid = {31983325},
issn = {1471-2970},
abstract = {Ecosystems can sustain social adaptation to environmental change by protecting people from climate change effects and providing options for sustaining material and non-material benefits as ecological structure and functions transform. Along adaptation pathways, people navigate the trade-offs between different ecosystem contributions to adaptation, or adaptation services (AS), and can enhance their synergies and co-benefits as environmental change unfolds. Understanding trade-offs and co-benefits of AS is therefore essential to support social adaptation and requires analysing how people co-produce AS. We analysed co-production along the three steps of the ecosystem cascade: (i) ecosystem management; (ii) mobilization; and (iii) appropriation, social access and appreciation. Using five exemplary case studies across socio-ecosystems and continents, we show how five broad mechanisms already active for current ecosystem services can enhance co-benefits and minimize trade-offs between AS: (1) traditional and multi-functional land/sea management targeting ecological resilience; (2) pro-active management for ecosystem transformation; (3) co-production of novel services in landscapes without compromising other services; (4) collective governance of all co-production steps; and (5) feedbacks from appropriation, appreciation of and social access to main AS. We conclude that knowledge and recognition of co-production mechanisms will enable pro-active management and governance for collective adaptation to ecosystem transformation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.},
}
@article {pmid31982999,
year = {2020},
author = {Chandio, AA and Ozturk, I and Akram, W and Ahmad, F and Mirani, AA},
title = {Empirical analysis of climate change factors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-07739-y},
pmid = {31982999},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {This research has examined the dynamic linkages among climate change factors, such as CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, and cereal yield in Turkey from 1968 to 2014. At first step, we tested stationary properties of the climatic factors and crop yield by using both traditional and breakpoint unit root tests. After the confirmation of given properties, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to capture the dynamic relationship among the variables in the given span of time. The empirical results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship thar exists between climate change factors and cereal yield. CO2 emissions and average temperature have a diverse effect on the cereal yield, whereas average rainfall has a positive effect on the cereal yield in both the long run and short run. To check the causality, we use the Granger causality test that reveals a significant effect of climate change variables on the cereal yield. The unidirectional causal link is significant among temperature and rainfall factors. The results show that the cereal yield is affected by more climate factors like rain fall and temperature due to CO2 emissions as compared to land and labor use. Based on the findings of the study, few suggestions have been made to address the climate change factors. Devise agriculture-specific adaptation policy for the farmers to build their capacity and resilience to tackle climate changes, for example, farm practices. Agriculture research and development should work on cereal crop varieties that can tolerate the high temperature and precipitation. These policies could help the agriculture sector to sustain production and allocation efficiency in the long run.},
}
@article {pmid31982770,
year = {2020},
author = {Anwar, MR and Wang, B and Liu, L and Waters, C},
title = {Late planting has great potential to mitigate the effects of future climate change on Australian rain-fed cotton.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {714},
number = {},
pages = {136806},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136806},
pmid = {31982770},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The rain-fed cotton industry in Australia is vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on seasonal climate and summer rainfall. The rain-fed cotton in eastern Australia is increasingly being incorporated into cereal crop rotations due to government regulation of water resources, restricting opportunities for irrigated cotton. The accurate quantification of future climate impacts on exposed cropping systems such as rain-fed cotton is required to identify effective agronomic practices and inform strategic industry planning for the expansion of Australian cotton industry. Our study utilized 32 General Circulation Model (GCMs) for four cotton-growing regions representing the geographic range of cotton production in eastern Australia. We assessed the climate impacts on rain-fed cotton yield for two future periods (2040s and 2080s) under the RCP4.5 (low) and RCP8.5 (high) emissions scenarios employing the processed-based APSIM-Cotton model. Our results showed that current cotton yields varied with planting date, and the magnitude of yield change was consistent with regional climate variations at four locations representing the current geographic distribution of rain-fed cotton production. Means from multi-GCM ensemble showed growth period temperature increased more under RCP8.5 in the longer-term (2080s). Growth period rainfall changes had significantly positive effects on yield at all planting dates over each site. The projected increases in rainfall were more evident at later planting dates for dry sites than early planting dates at wet sites. In addition, we found planting date had the greatest influence on cotton yield at wet sites, while GCMs accounted for a large portion of variation in cotton yield at dry sites. We conclude that later planting has a great potential to increase rain-fed cotton yields. This provides important insights for regional-specific adaptation strategies for the rain-fed cotton industry in eastern Australia.},
}
@article {pmid31981884,
year = {2020},
author = {Ubeda, C and Hornedo-Ortega, R and Cerezo, AB and Garcia-Parrilla, MC and Troncoso, AM},
title = {Chemical hazards in grapes and wine, climate change and challenges to face.},
journal = {Food chemistry},
volume = {314},
number = {},
pages = {126222},
doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2020.126222},
pmid = {31981884},
issn = {1873-7072},
abstract = {Climate change has an impact on the chemical risks associated to wine consumption related with grape development and microbial contamination. We can classify chemical hazards in wine into two groups: those present in grapes due to agricultural practices, environmental contamination or fungal growth and those coming from fermentation and the winemaking process. The first group includes mycotoxins, whilst the second encompasses ethyl carbamate, biogenic amines, sulfur dioxide and proteins used as technological ingredients such as fining material. Usually the effective control of chemical hazards is achieved by assuring that they either are minimized or absent in the final product since their removal is somewhat difficult and sometimes it may affect sensory properties, which is a major issue in wine. Interestingly, it is possible to give recommendations to avoid excess of these compounds, but more research is needed to face future challenges related to climate change and consumer demands.},
}
@article {pmid31981871,
year = {2020},
author = {Wu, X and Liu, J and Li, C and Yin, J},
title = {Impact of climate change on dysentery: Scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {714},
number = {},
pages = {136702},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136702},
pmid = {31981871},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Dysentery is water-borne and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a systematic review is lacking. We searched the worldwide literature using three sets of keywords and six databases. We identified and selected 98 studies during 1866-2019 and reviewed the relevant findings. Climate change, including long-term variations in factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and short-term variations in extreme weather events, such as floods and drought, mostly had a harmful impact on dysentery incidence. However, some uncertainty over the exact effects of climate factors exists, specifically in the different indexes for the same climate factor, various determinant indexes for different dysentery burdens, and divergent effects for different population groups. These complicate the accurate quantification of such impacts. We generalized two types of methods: sensitivity analysis, used to detect the sensitivity of dysentery to climate change, including Pearson's and Spearman's correlations; and mathematical models, which quantify the impact of climate on dysentery, and include models that examine the associations (including negative binomial regression models) and quantify correlations (including single generalized additive models and mixed models). Projection studies mostly predict disease risks, and some predict disease incidence based on climate models under RCP 4.5. Since some geographic heterogeneity exists in the climate-dysentery relationship, modeling and projection of dysentery incidence on a national or global scale remain challenging. The reviewed results have implications for the present and future. Current research should be extended to select appropriate and robust climate-dysentery models, reasonable disease burden measure, and appropriate climate models and scenarios. We recommend future studies focus on qualitative investigation of the mechanism involved in the impact of climate on dysentery, and accurate projection of dysentery incidence, aided by advancing accuracy of extreme weather forecasting.},
}
@article {pmid31981032,
year = {2020},
author = {Azevedo, SG and Sequeira, T and Santos, M and Nikuma, D},
title = {Climate change and sustainable development: the case of Amazonia and policy implications.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-07725-4},
pmid = {31981032},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {UID/ECO/04007/2019//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; },
abstract = {The relationship between sustainable development and climate change has been extensively addressed, but with few studies focusing on the Amazonian Rainforest. Due to its dimension and importance, preserving it is critical in order to mitigate the problem of climate change associated with rising temperatures, lower precipitation, and the increase of extreme weather events. This paper studies the effects of climate change on the sustainable development of Amazonia. A scientometric analysis was carried out which reveals the evolution of the research field in terms of the growing number of works that have been published in top journals and the main drivers of climate change in Amazonia, such as deforestation, global warming, and land use. Our results indicate that the environmental dimension of sustainable development has been the issue most studied. Our analysis leads us to recommend that policymakers implement incentives for better forest management, design policies with realistic expectations, and rely more on technical reports and approaches to implement policies. Better integration of policies at local, regional, national, and international levels is necessary in order to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Several measures to intensify the scientific approaches joining economic and social dimensions are also proposed. This work contributes to the systematization of the literature on sustainable development and climate change in Amazonia, which has not yet been done, and provides policy recommendations to researchers and professionals for a better understanding of climate change and sustainable development in the Amazonia region of Brazil.},
}
@article {pmid31978205,
year = {2020},
author = {Guerra-Correa, ES and Merino-Viteri, A and Andrango, MB and Torres-Carvajal, O},
title = {Thermal biology of two tropical lizards from the Ecuadorian Andes and their vulnerability to climate change.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {1},
pages = {e0228043},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0228043},
pmid = {31978205},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {This study aims to analyze the thermal biology and climatic vulnerability of two closely related lizard species (Stenocercus festae and S. guentheri) inhabiting the Ecuadorian Andes at high altitudes. Four physiological parameters-body temperature (Tb), preferred temperature (Tpref), critical thermal maximum (CTmax), and critical thermal minimum (CTmin)-were evaluated to analyze the variation of thermophysiological traits among these populations that inhabit different environmental and altitudinal conditions. We also evaluate the availability of operative temperatures, warming tolerance, and thermal safety margin of each population to estimate their possible risks in the face of future raising temperatures. Similar to previous studies, our results suggest that some physiological traits (CTmax and Tb) are influenced by environmental heterogeneity, which brings changes on the thermoregulatory behavior. Other parameters (Tpref and CTmin), may be also influenced by phylogenetic constraints. Moreover, the fluctuating air temperature (Tair) as well as the operative temperatures (Te) showed that these lizards exploit a variety of thermal microenvironments, which may facilitate behavioral thermoregulation. Warming tolerance and thermal safety margin analyses suggest that both species find thermal refugia and remain active without reducing their performance or undergoing thermal stress within their habitats. We suggest that studies on the thermal biology of tropical Andean lizards living at high altitudes are extremely important as these environments exhibit a unique diversity of microclimates, which consequently result on particular thermophysiological adaptations.},
}
@article {pmid31978170,
year = {2020},
author = {Sewell, DK and Rayner, PJ and Shank, DB and Guy, S and Lilburn, SD and Saber, S and Kashima, Y},
title = {Correction: Causal knowledge promotes behavioral self-regulation: An example using climate change dynamics.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {1},
pages = {e0228445},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0228445},
pmid = {31978170},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0184480.].},
}
@article {pmid31976075,
year = {2020},
author = {Domenici, P and Seebacher, F},
title = {The impacts of climate change on the biomechanics of animals: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change.},
journal = {Conservation physiology},
volume = {8},
number = {1},
pages = {coz102},
doi = {10.1093/conphys/coz102},
pmid = {31976075},
issn = {2051-1434},
abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change induces unprecedented variability in a broad range of environmental parameters. These changes will impact material properties and animal biomechanics, thereby affecting animal performance and persistence of populations. Climate change implies warming at the global level, and it may be accompanied by altered wind speeds, wave action, ocean circulation, acidification as well as increased frequency of hypoxic events. Together, these environmental drivers affect muscle function and neural control and thereby movement of animals such as bird migration and schooling behaviour of fish. Altered environmental conditions will also modify material properties of animals. For example, ocean acidification, particularly when coupled with increased temperatures, compromises calcified shells and skeletons of marine invertebrates and byssal threads of mussels. These biomechanical consequences can lead to population declines and disintegration of habitats. Integrating biomechanical research with ecology is instrumental in predicting the future responses of natural systems to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services such as fisheries and ecotourism.},
}
@article {pmid31974514,
year = {2020},
author = {Phillips, N and Nogrady, B},
title = {The race to decipher how climate change influenced Australia's record fires.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {577},
number = {7792},
pages = {610-612},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00173-7},
pmid = {31974514},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid31974387,
year = {2020},
author = {Petersen, AM and Vincent, EM and Westerling, AL},
title = {Addendum: Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {553},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-14507-6},
pmid = {31974387},
issn = {2041-1723},
}
@article {pmid31974347,
year = {2020},
author = {Balderas Torres, A and Lazaro Vargas, P and Paavola, J},
title = {The systemic and governmental agendas in presidential attention to climate change in Mexico 1994-2018.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {455},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-14048-7},
pmid = {31974347},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {Ambitious climate action requires sustained long-term attention from political leaders. To understand how climate change entered the political agenda in a developing country, we examine from an agenda-setting perspective the attention paid by Mexican presidents to this issue from 1994 to 2018. We perform a longitudinal analysis of 968 documents referring to climate change published by four presidencies to describe changes in attention levels over time and to determine how changes in international agreements and public policies (i.e. systemic agenda) and National Development Plans (NDPs)(i.e. governmental agenda) influence them. Our results indicate international agreements and national legislation establish a baseline for inclusion of climate change into governmental actions. Agenda changes driven by international agreements result in reactive changes in attention, while ambitious approaches are aligned with proactive NDPs. Our results also indicate public awareness and electoral periods can open windows of opportunity for reframing agendas and promoting ambitious climate action.},
}
@article {pmid31971648,
year = {2020},
author = {Thackeray, SJ and Robinson, SA and Smith, P and Bruno, R and Kirschbaum, MUF and Bernacchi, C and Byrne, M and Cheung, W and Cotrufo, MF and Gienapp, P and Hartley, S and Janssens, I and Hefin Jones, T and Kobayashi, K and Luo, Y and Penuelas, J and Sage, R and Suggett, DJ and Way, D and Long, S},
title = {Civil disobedience movements such as School Strike for the Climate are raising public awareness of the climate change emergency.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14978},
pmid = {31971648},
issn = {1365-2486},
}
@article {pmid31970754,
year = {2020},
author = {Coates, SJ and Enbiale, W and Davis, MDP and Andersen, LK},
title = {The effects of climate change on human health in Africa, a dermatologic perspective: a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.},
journal = {International journal of dermatology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/ijd.14759},
pmid = {31970754},
issn = {1365-4632},
abstract = {Throughout much of the African continent, healthcare systems are already strained in their efforts to meet the needs of a growing population using limited resources. Climate change threatens to undermine many of the public health gains that have been made in this region in the last several decades via multiple mechanisms, including malnutrition secondary to drought-induced food insecurity, mass human displacement from newly uninhabitable areas, exacerbation of environmentally sensitive chronic diseases, and enhanced viability of pathogenic microbes and their vectors. We reviewed the literature describing the various direct and indirect effects of climate change on diseases with cutaneous manifestations in Africa. We included non-communicable diseases such as malignancies (non-melanoma skin cancers), inflammatory dermatoses (i.e. photosensitive dermatoses, atopic dermatitis), and trauma (skin injury), as well as communicable diseases and neglected tropical diseases. Physicians should be aware of the ways in which climate change threatens human health in low- and middle-income countries in general, and particularly in countries throughout Africa, the world's lowest-income and second most populous continent.},
}
@article {pmid31967869,
year = {2020},
author = {Prins, SJ and Story, B},
title = {Connecting the Dots Between Mass Incarceration, Health Inequity, and Climate Change.},
journal = {American journal of public health},
volume = {110},
number = {S1},
pages = {S35-S36},
doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2019.305470},
pmid = {31967869},
issn = {1541-0048},
}
@article {pmid31965496,
year = {2020},
author = {Abu Samah, A and Shaffril, HAM},
title = {A comparative study between mainland and islander small-scale fishermen's adaptation towards climate change.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07143-1},
pmid = {31965496},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {IPB - Grant no: GP-IPB/2014/9441300//Universiti Putra Malaysia/ ; },
abstract = {The existing literature have demonstrated a considerable amount of existing studies that merely interest on scientific perspectives by examining the physical environmental changes rather than conducting social-based studies that allow for the comparison of adaptation ability between mainland and island small-scale fishermen. Therefore, the current research attempts to fill this gap by investigating the adaptation level of mainland and island small-scale fishermen towards climate changes for the purpose of further identifying any significant differences regarding their adaptation aspects. The primary aim of the current research is to conduct a comparative study with the purpose of assessing the environmental change adaptation ability between the mainland and the islander small-scale fishermen. In the context of the current research, a quantitative approach was employed by selecting a total of 600 samples through several levels of cluster sampling. The instrument for the study was developed based on the 16 adaptation variables that were suggested within the adaptation framework proposed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. The data were analysed using SPSS, whereby to achieve the study's main objective, inferential analysis which refers to the independent t test was performed to examine any possible significant difference that might exist. In regard to this matter, various significant differences between the islander and the mainland fishermen managed to be detected in 10 adaptation aspects out of the 16 adaptation variables which include the capacity to adapt to change (monetary and emotional adaptability); the level of interest in adapting to change; the ability to plan, learn, and reorganize; and attachment to occupation. Accordingly, a number of recommendations were discussed at the end of this study which is hoped to assist the involved and relevant parties in arranging better adjustment approaches for small-scale fishermen in Malaysia.},
}
@article {pmid31965106,
year = {2020},
author = {Davis, C and Goulet-Scott, B and Beckfield, J},
title = {Climate change: how to pack a punch at meetings.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {577},
number = {7791},
pages = {472},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00134-0},
pmid = {31965106},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid31965048,
year = {2020},
author = {Ebi, KL},
title = {Mechanisms, policies, and tools to promote health equity and effective governance of the health risks of climate change.},
journal = {Journal of public health policy},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1057/s41271-019-00212-2},
pmid = {31965048},
issn = {1745-655X},
abstract = {National and international policies, mechanisms, and tools are being used by health authorities to promote effective risk management of climate change, including through addressing health inequalities and effective governance.},
}
@article {pmid31961441,
year = {2020},
author = {McDermott-Levy, R and Fick, DM},
title = {Advancing Gerontological Nursing Science in Climate Change.},
journal = {Research in gerontological nursing},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
pages = {6-12},
doi = {10.3928/19404921-20191204-02},
pmid = {31961441},
issn = {1938-2464},
abstract = {Older adults have unique health risks related to climate change. This commentary addresses the health impacts of climate change for older adults, identifies gaps in gerontological nursing research, and highlights areas for research to address the significant gap in nursing science. Climate risks of extreme weather events, such as heat, rain, flooding, and wildfires, as well as poor air quality, vector-borne diseases, interruptions of services, and treatment plans all place older adults at risk of experiencing greater morbidity and early mortality. Despite these risks, there is a gap in nursing research related to climate change and aging. Nurse scientists can address this gap with an interdisciplinary approach. There are climate resources and theoretical frameworks to support scientific inquiry. Funding sources must be made available to assure rigorous scholarship of climate-related health impacts for older adults. Gerontological nurse researchers must build capacity to address climate change and health. [Research in Gerontological Nursing, 13(1), 6-12.].},
}
@article {pmid31961426,
year = {2020},
author = {Kuehn, BM},
title = {Climate Change Puts Children at Risk.},
journal = {JAMA},
volume = {323},
number = {3},
pages = {209},
doi = {10.1001/jama.2019.21719},
pmid = {31961426},
issn = {1538-3598},
}
@article {pmid31960540,
year = {2020},
author = {Kling, MM and Auer, SL and Comer, PJ and Ackerly, DD and Hamilton, H},
title = {Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15008},
pmid = {31960540},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western United States, using data on observed climate trends from 1948-2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (i) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (ii) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (iii) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms-niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)-each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.},
}
@article {pmid31959976,
year = {2020},
author = {Figueres, C},
title = {Paris taught me how to do what is necessary to combat climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {577},
number = {7791},
pages = {470-471},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00112-6},
pmid = {31959976},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid31959765,
year = {2020},
author = {Navarro-Racines, C and Tarapues, J and Thornton, P and Jarvis, A and Ramirez-Villegas, J},
title = {High-resolution and bias-corrected CMIP5 projections for climate change impact assessments.},
journal = {Scientific data},
volume = {7},
number = {1},
pages = {7},
doi = {10.1038/s41597-019-0343-8},
pmid = {31959765},
issn = {2052-4463},
abstract = {Projections of climate change are available at coarse scales (70-400 km). But agricultural and species models typically require finer scale climate data to model climate change impacts. Here, we present a global database of future climates developed by applying the delta method -a method for climate model bias correction. We performed a technical evaluation of the bias-correction method using a 'perfect sibling' framework and show that it reduces climate model bias by 50-70%. The data include monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly total precipitation, and a set of bioclimatic indices, and can be used for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity. The data are publicly available in the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC; cera-www.dkrz.de), as well as in the CCAFS-Climate data portal (http://ccafs-climate.org). The database has been used up to date in more than 350 studies of ecosystem and agricultural impact assessment.},
}
@article {pmid31959419,
year = {2020},
author = {Corlett, RT and Tomlinson, KW},
title = {Climate Change and Edaphic Specialists: Irresistible Force Meets Immovable Object?.},
journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.12.007},
pmid = {31959419},
issn = {1872-8383},
abstract = {Species exposed to anthropogenic climate change can acclimate, adapt, move, or be extirpated. It is often assumed that movement will be the dominant response, with populations tracking their climate envelopes in space, but the numerous species restricted to specialized substrates cannot easily move. In warmer regions of the world, such edaphic specialists appear to have accumulated in situ over millions of years, persisting despite climate change by local movements, plastic responses, and genetic adaptation. However, past climates were usually cooler than today and rates of warming slower, while edaphic islands are now exposed to multiple additional threats, including mining. Modeling studies that ignore edaphic constraints on climate change responses may therefore give misleading results for a significant proportion of all taxa.},
}
@article {pmid31957904,
year = {2020},
author = {Chu, H and Yang, JZ},
title = {Risk or Efficacy? How Psychological Distance Influences Climate Change Engagement.},
journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/risa.13446},
pmid = {31957904},
issn = {1539-6924},
support = {1822997//Division of Social and Economic Sciences/ ; },
abstract = {Construal-level theory suggests that high-level abstract features weigh more in people's decision-making at farther distance, while low-level concrete features weigh more at closer distance. Based on this, we propose that psychological distance will influence the effect of risk versus efficacy framing on climate change engagement. In particular, risk perception related to the end-state expectancy of climate change mitigation should influence people's climate change engagement at farther distance. In contrast, efficacy perception related to the perceived feasibility of attaining end-state goals should influence engagement at closer distance. Results from an experimental survey based on a national sample that is both demographically and geographically representative (N = 1,282) supported our proposition. At closer spatial distance, perceived efficacy boosted by efficacy framing increased participants' intention to perform climate mitigation behaviors. In contrast, at farther distance, risk framing increased behavioral intention through heightened risk perception. Based on these findings, we suggest that when communicating distant and abstract risks, highlighting their disastrous impacts may better motivate action. In contrast, when communicating impending and concrete risks, stressing the feasibility of action may have stronger motivational potential.},
}
@article {pmid31957384,
year = {2020},
author = {Ji, LT and Zheng, TY and Chen, Q and Zhong, JJ and Kang, B},
title = {[Responses of potential suitable area of Paris verticillata to climate change and its dominant climate factors].},
journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology},
volume = {31},
number = {1},
pages = {89-96},
doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202001.012},
pmid = {31957384},
issn = {1001-9332},
abstract = {Prediction of the potential distribution of species based on the data of its current distribution in combination with climatic variables is important for understanding species evolution and reasonable conservation. Based on 220 distribution sites in China and 12 low-correlation climatic variables, we analyzed the potential distribution of Paris verticillata at present and future (2050s and 2070s) using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS program. Further, we analyzed the dominant driving factors for its geographic distribution. The results showed that the area under the curve indices (AUC) was 0.940, with high prediction accuracy. The potential suitable regions of P. verticillata were mainly distributed in the Greater Xing'an Mountains, the Xiao Xing'an Mountains, the Changbai Mountains, the Qinling-Daba Mountains, Hebei, Shanxi and north Shandong under current climate scenario. Those regions accounted for 18.1% of the total suitable area in the country, of which the highly suitable areas accounted for 7.0% and the lowly suitable area 11.1%. The total suitable areas of P. verticillata in the 2050s and 2070s would decline under the climate change scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. The highly suitable area would decline, but the lowly suitable area would increase. With the global climate change, both the range and the geometric center of its distribution would gradually spread to higher altitude in the northeast. The cumulative contributions of four dominant factors reached as high as 89.2%, namely, precipitation of wettest month, mean annual temperature, isothermality, and precipitation of January. Their appropriate ranges were 100-275 mm, -0.1-16 ℃, 21-35 and 3-14 mm, respectively.},
}
@article {pmid31957148,
year = {2020},
author = {Maloney, KO and Krause, KP and Buchanan, C and Hay, LE and McCabe, GJ and Smith, ZM and Sohl, TL and Young, JA},
title = {Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14961},
pmid = {31957148},
issn = {1365-2486},
support = {//U.S. Geological Survey/ ; },
abstract = {Land-use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long-term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land-use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin-wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land-use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed-wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed-wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land-use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed-wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%-26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land-use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land-use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.},
}
@article {pmid31957145,
year = {2020},
author = {Ghirardo, A and Lindstein, F and Koch, K and Buegger, F and Schloter, M and Albert, A and Michelsen, A and Winkler, JB and Schnitzler, JP and Rinnan, R},
title = {Origin of volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under global warming.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14935},
pmid = {31957145},
issn = {1365-2486},
support = {DFF-4181-00141//Natur og Univers, Det Frie Forskningsråd/ ; VKR022589//Villum Fonden/ ; 771012//H2020 European Research Council/ ; CENPERM DNRF100//Danmarks Grundforskningsfond/ ; },
abstract = {Warming occurs in the Arctic twice as fast as the global average, which in turn leads to a large enhancement in terpenoid emissions from vegetation. Volatile terpenoids are the main class of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that play crucial roles in atmospheric chemistry and climate. However, the biochemical mechanisms behind the temperature-dependent increase in VOC emissions from subarctic ecosystems are largely unexplored. Using 13 CO2 -labeling, we studied the origin of VOCs and the carbon (C) allocation under global warming in the soil-plant-atmosphere system of contrasting subarctic heath tundra vegetation communities characterized by dwarf shrubs of the genera Salix or Betula. The projected temperature rise of the subarctic summer by 5°C was realistically simulated in sophisticated climate chambers. VOC emissions strongly depended on the plant species composition of the heath tundra. Warming caused increased VOC emissions and significant changes in the pattern of volatiles toward more reactive hydrocarbons. The 13 C was incorporated to varying degrees in different monoterpene and sesquiterpene isomers. We found that de novo monoterpene biosynthesis contributed to 40%-44% (Salix) and 60%-68% (Betula) of total monoterpene emissions under the current climate, and that warming increased the contribution to 50%-58% (Salix) and 87%-95% (Betula). Analyses of above- and belowground 12/13 C showed shifts of C allocation in the plant-soil systems and negative effects of warming on C sequestration by lowering net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and increasing C loss as VOCs. This comprehensive analysis provides the scientific basis for mechanistically understanding the processes controlling terpenoid emissions, required for modeling VOC emissions from terrestrial ecosystems and predicting the future chemistry of the arctic atmosphere. By changing the chemical composition and loads of VOCs into the atmosphere, the current data indicate that global warming in the Arctic may have implications for regional and global climate and for the delicate tundra ecosystems.},
}
@article {pmid31954242,
year = {2020},
author = {Messina, NJ and Couture, RM and Norton, SA and Birkel, SD and Amirbahman, A},
title = {Modeling response of water quality parameters to land-use and climate change in a temperate, mesotrophic lake.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {713},
number = {},
pages = {136549},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136549},
pmid = {31954242},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the catchment and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake-Sediment) to simulate physical mixing, chemical dynamics, and sediment geochemistry in Lake Auburn from 2013 to 2017. Simulations of future lake water quality were conducted using meteorological boundary conditions derived from recent historical data and climate model projections for high greenhouse-gas emission cases. The effects of future land development on lake water quality for the 2046 to 2055 time period under different land-use and climate change scenarios were also simulated. Our results indicate that lake P enrichment is more responsive to extreme storm events than increasing air temperatures, mean precipitation, or windstorms; loss of fish habitat is driven by windstorms, and to a lesser extent an increasing water temperature; and catchment development further leads to water quality decline. All simulations also show that the lake is susceptible to both internal and external P loadings. Simulation of temperature, DO, and P proved to be an effective means for predicting the loss of water quality under changing land-use and climate scenarios.},
}
@article {pmid31953955,
year = {2020},
author = {Bennett, AE and Classen, AT},
title = {Climate change influences mycorrhizal fungal-plant interactions, but conclusions are limited by geographical study bias.},
journal = {Ecology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {e02978},
doi = {10.1002/ecy.2978},
pmid = {31953955},
issn = {1939-9170},
abstract = {Climate change is altering the interactions among plants and soil organisms in ways that will alter the structure and function of ecosystems. We reviewed the literature and developed a map of studies focused on how the three most common types of mycorrhizal fungi (arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM), ectomycorrhizal (EcM), and ericoid mycorrhizal (ErM) fungi) respond to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO2), climatic warming, and changes in the distribution of precipitation. Broadly, we ask how do mycorrhizal fungi respond to climate change, how do these responses vary by fungal type, and how do mycorrhizal traits influence plant adaptation, movement, or extinction in response to climatic change? First, we found that 92% of studies were conducted in the northern hemisphere, and plant host, ecosystem type and study location were only correlated with each other in the northern hemisphere because studies across all mycorrhizal fungal types were only common in the northern hemisphere. Second, we show that temperature and rainfall variability had more variable effects than eCO2 on mycorrhizal fungal structures, but these effects were context dependent. Third, while mycorrhizal fungal types vary in their responses to climate change, it appears that warming lead to more variable responses in ectomycorrhizal than in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Finally, we discuss common traits of mycorrhizal fungi that could aid in fungal and plant adaption to climate change. We posit that mycorrhizal fungi can buffer plant hosts against extinction risk, they can facilitate or retard the dispersal success of plants moving away from poor environments, and, by buffering host plants, they can enable host plant adaptation to new climates. All of these influences are, however, context dependent a finding that reflects the complex traits of mycorrhizal fungi as a group, the diversity of plant species they associate with and the variation in ecosystems in which they reside. Overall, while we point out many gaps in our understanding of the influence of climate changes on mycorrhizal fungi, we also highlight the large number of opportunities for researching plant and mycorrhizal fungal responses to and mitigation of climate changes.},
}
@article {pmid31953496,
year = {2020},
author = {Albouy, C and Delattre, V and Donati, G and Frölicher, TL and Albouy-Boyer, S and Rufino, M and Pellissier, L and Mouillot, D and Leprieur, F},
title = {Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {548},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-57280-3},
pmid = {31953496},
issn = {2045-2322},
support = {ANR-11-CEPL-006//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; ANR-11-CEPL-006//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; },
abstract = {Although extinctions due to climate change are still uncommon, they might surpass those caused by habitat loss or overexploitation over the next few decades. Among marine megafauna, mammals fulfill key and irreplaceable ecological roles in the ocean, and the collapse of their populations may therefore have irreversible consequences for ecosystem functioning and services. Using a trait-based approach, we assessed the vulnerability of all marine mammals to global warming under high and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the middle and the end of the 21st century. We showed that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming. Future conservation plans should therefore focus on these regions, where there are long histories of overexploitation and there are high levels of current threats to marine mammals. Among the most vulnerable marine mammals were several threatened species, such as the North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica) and the dugong (Dugong dugon), that displayed unique combinations of functional traits. Beyond species loss, we showed that the potential extinctions of the marine mammals that were most vulnerable to global warming might induce a disproportionate loss of functional diversity, which may have profound impacts on the future functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide.},
}
@article {pmid31953294,
year = {2020},
author = {Smith, P and Balmford, A},
title = {Climate change: 'no get out of jail free card'.},
journal = {The Veterinary record},
volume = {186},
number = {2},
pages = {71},
doi = {10.1136/vr.m190},
pmid = {31953294},
issn = {2042-7670},
abstract = {Pete Smith and Andrew Balmford argue that methane from livestock is an important contributor to climate change and that it should not be creatively discounted.},
}
@article {pmid31951035,
year = {2020},
author = {Schwanz, LE and Georges, A and Holleley, CE and Sarre, S},
title = {Climate change, sex reversal and lability of sex determining systems.},
journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/jeb.13587},
pmid = {31951035},
issn = {1420-9101},
abstract = {Sex reversal at high temperatures during embryonic development (e.g. ZZ females) provides the opportunity for new genotypic crosses (e.g. ZZ male x ZZ female). This raises the alarming possibility that climatic warming could lead to the loss of an entire chromosome - one member of the sex chromosome pair (the Y or W) - and the transition of populations to environmental sex determination (ESD). Here we examine the evolutionary dynamics of sex-determining systems exposed to climatic warming using theoretical models. We found that the loss of sex chromosomes is not an inevitable consequence of sex reversal. A large frequency of ZZ sex reversal (50% reversal from male to female) typically divides the outcome between loss of the ZW genotype and the stable persistence of ZZ males, ZW females, and ZZ females. The amount of warming associated with sex chromosome loss depended on several features of wild populations - environmental fluctuation, immigration, heritable variation in temperature sensitivity, and differential fecundity of sex-reversed individuals. Chromosome loss was partially or completely buffered when sex-reversed individuals suffered a reproductive fitness cost, when immigration occurred, or when heritable variation for temperature sensitivity existed. Thus, under certain circumstances, sex chromosomes may persist cryptically in systems where the environment is the predominant influence on sex.},
}
@article {pmid31950538,
year = {2020},
author = {Menzel, A and Yuan, Y and Matiu, M and Sparks, T and Scheifinger, H and Gehrig, R and Estrella, N},
title = {Climate change fingerprints in recent European plant phenology.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15000},
pmid = {31950538},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971-2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951-2018 in a corresponding dataset, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978-2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for non-woody insect-pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers' decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers' spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers' spring and summer activities were very likely / likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers' activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public.},
}
@article {pmid31950493,
year = {2020},
author = {Fox, NJ and Alldred, P},
title = {Re-assembling climate change policy: Materialism, posthumanism, and the policy assemblage.},
journal = {The British journal of sociology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/1468-4446.12734},
pmid = {31950493},
issn = {1468-4446},
abstract = {National and international policy-makers have addressed threats to environmental sustainability from climate change and other environmental degradation for over 30 years. However, it is questionable whether current policies are socially, politically, economically, and scientifically capable of adequately resolving these threats to the planet and living organisms. In this paper we theorize and develop the concept of a &quot;policy assemblage&quot; from within a new materialist ontology, to interrogate critically four policy perspectives on climate change: &quot;liberal environmentalism&quot;; the United Nations policy statements on sustainable development; &quot;green capitalism&quot; (also known as &quot;climate capitalism&quot;) and finally &quot;no-growth economics.&quot; A materialist analysis of interactions between climate change and policies enables us to establish what each policy can do, what it ignores or omits, and consequently its adequacy to address environmental sustainability in the face of climate change. None, we conclude, is adequate or appropriate to address climate change successfully. We then use this conceptual tool to establish a &quot;posthuman&quot; policy on climate change. Humans, from this perspective, are part of the environment, not separate from or in opposition to it, but possess unique capacities that we suggest are now necessary to address climate change. This ontology supplies the starting point from which to establish sociologically a scientifically, socially, and politically adequate posthuman climate change policy. We offer suggestions for the constituent elements of such a policy.},
}
@article {pmid31948947,
year = {2020},
author = {Hawkins, KE},
title = {Comment on 'Climate change and contraception'.},
journal = {BMJ sexual &amp; reproductive health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1136/bmjsrh-2019-200554},
pmid = {31948947},
issn = {2515-2009},
}
@article {pmid31941955,
year = {2020},
author = {Yawson, DO and Adu, MO and Armah, FA},
title = {Impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on malt barley supplies and associated virtual water flows in the UK.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {376},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-57256-3},
pmid = {31941955},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Barley is a major ingredient for the malting industry which is highly sensitive and vulnerable to malt barley supply. The United Kingdom (UK) has the second highest malting capacity in the EU and the third largest malting industry in the world, supplying malt to major global breweries. Premium whisky, which has both economic and cultural significance for the UK, also makes sustainable malt barley supply critical for the UK. There is paucity of information on the sustainability of future supplies of malt barley in the UK, as much as it is in the world. This study applied a food balance approach to assess the combined effects of climate change and mitigation policies on UK malt barley balances for the 2030s, 2040 s, and 2050 s. Future yields of spring barley were simulated under the low, medium and high emissions scenarios (or LES, MES, and HES, respectively) for the three time slices. Future areas of land for barley production were obtained via land use change simulation in response to climate mitigation policies and aspirations of the UK. Future yields and land areas were combined to obtain total barley production, which served as a basis of supply. Per capita malt barley consumption was combined with future population to obtain demand. The gaps between demand and supply were then assessed. The results show large deficits in malt barley supplies for all combinations of climate change, land use and population, with adverse implications for the malting industry. Total malt barley supplies under current land area for barley and using the 90th percentile yield, ranged from 1899 (LES, 2030s) to 2,437 thousand tonnes (HES, 2050s). The largest supply under climate mitigation land use scenarios ranged from 1,592 (LES, 2030s) to 2,120 thousand tonnes (HES, 2050s). Deficits in supply were observed for all climate mitigation land use scenarios and time slices, ranging from 128 to 585 thousand tonnes at 90th percentile yield. However, surpluses were observed from the 2040s if current land area for barley remains unchanged. Imports to balance the observed deficits would result in large inflows of blue water to the UK, with adverse implications for global freshwater supply and environmental sustainability. It is concluded that even though spring barley yields in the UK could increase under projected climate change, reductions in croplands (due mainly to climate mitigation policies and aspirations) could combine with population growth to undermine the sustainability of malt barley supplies, both nationally and internationally.},
}
@article {pmid31940403,
year = {2020},
author = {Mihailović, DT and Petrić, D and Petrović, T and Hrnjaković-Cvjetković, I and Djurdjevic, V and Nikolić-Đorić, E and Arsenić, I and Petrić, M and Mimić, G and Ignjatović-Ćupina, A},
title = {Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {1},
pages = {e0227679},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0227679},
pmid = {31940403},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.},
}
@article {pmid31938884,
year = {2020},
author = {Larios, E and González, EJ and Rosen, PC and Pate, A and Holm, P},
title = {Population projections of an endangered cactus suggest little impact of climate change.},
journal = {Oecologia},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00442-020-04595-y},
pmid = {31938884},
issn = {1432-1939},
support = {P16AC01027//National Park Service/ ; },
abstract = {Population projections coupled with downscaled climate projections are a powerful tool that allows predicting future population dynamics of vulnerable plants in the face of a changing climate. Traditional approaches used to predict the vulnerability of plants to climate change (e.g. species distribution models) fail to mechanistically describe the basis of a population's dynamics and thus cannot be expected to correctly predict its temporal trends. In this study, we used a 23-year demographic dataset of the acuña cactus, an endangered species, to predict its population dynamics to the end of the century. We used integral projection models to describe its vital rates and population dynamics in relation to plant volume and key climatic variables. We used the resulting climate-driven IPM along with climatic projections to predict the population growth rates from 1991 to 2099. We found the average population growth rate of this population between 1991 and 2013 to be 0.70 (95% CI 0.61-0.79). This result confirms that the population of acuña cactus has been declining and that this decline is due to demographic structure and climate conditions. However, the projection model also predicts that, up to 2080, the population will remain relatively stable mainly due to the survival of its existing adult individuals. Notwithstanding, the long-term viability of the populations can only be achieved through the recruitment of new individuals.},
}
@article {pmid31938529,
year = {2019},
author = {Steinacker, C and Beierkuhnlein, C and Jaeschke, A},
title = {Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change-Implications for Bavarian protected areas.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {9},
number = {24},
pages = {14417-14429},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.5877},
pmid = {31938529},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Aim: Due to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts.<br><br>Methods: To estimate changes in range size and coverage by PAs, we combined correlative species distribution models (SDMs) with spatial analyses. Ensembles of SDM-algorithms were applied to two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model for the period 2061-2080.<br><br>Results: Our results revealed that bog woodlands experience the highest range losses (>2/3) and lowest PA coverage (max. 15% of sites with suitable conditions). Tilio-Acerion forests exhibit opposing trends depending on the scenario, while alluvial forests are less exposed to climatic changes. As expected, the impacts of climate change are more pronounced under the &quot;business as usual&quot; scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, PAs in flat landscapes are more likely to lose environmental suitability for currently established forest habitat types.<br><br>Main conclusions: Based on these findings, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 network particularly in consideration of elevational gradients, connectivity, and projected climatic suitability. Nonclimatic stressors on forest ecosystems, especially bog woodlands, should be decreased and climate change mitigation efforts enhanced. We recommend transferring the approach to other habitat types and regions.},
}
@article {pmid31938482,
year = {2019},
author = {Qui-Minet, ZN and Coudret, J and Davoult, D and Grall, J and Mendez-Sandin, M and Cariou, T and Martin, S},
title = {Combined effects of global climate change and nutrient enrichment on the physiology of three temperate maerl species.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {9},
number = {24},
pages = {13787-13807},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.5802},
pmid = {31938482},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Made up of calcareous coralline algae, maerl beds play a major role as ecosystem engineers in coastal areas throughout the world. They undergo strong anthropogenic pressures, which may threaten their survival. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the future of maerl beds in the context of global and local changes. We examined the effects of rising temperatures (+3°C) and ocean acidification (-0.3 pH units) according to temperature and pH projections (i.e., the RCP 8.5 scenario), and nutrient (N and P) availability on three temperate maerl species (Lithothamnion corallioides, Phymatolithon calcareum, and Lithophyllum incrustans) in the laboratory in winter and summer conditions. Physiological rates of primary production, respiration, and calcification were measured on all three species in each treatment and season. The physiological response of maerl to global climate change was species-specific and influenced by seawater nutrient concentrations. Future temperature-pH scenario enhanced maximal gross primary production rates in P. calcareum in winter and in L. corallioides in both seasons. Nevertheless, both species suffered an impairment of light harvesting and photoprotective mechanisms in winter. Calcification rates at ambient light intensity were negatively affected by the future temperature-pH scenario in winter, with net dissolution observed in the dark in L. corallioides and P. calcareum under low nutrient concentrations. Nutrient enrichment avoided dissolution under future scenarios in winter and had a positive effect on L. incrustans calcification rate in the dark in summer. In winter conditions, maximal calcification rates were enhanced by the future temperature-pH scenario on the three species, but P. calcareum suffered inhibition at high irradiances. In summer conditions, the maximal calcification rate dropped in L. corallioides under the future global climate change scenario, with a potential negative impact on CaCO3 budget for maerl beds in the Bay of Brest where this species is dominant. Our results highlight how local changes in nutrient availability or irradiance levels impact the response of maerl species to global climate change and thus point out how it is important to consider other abiotic parameters in order to develop management policies capable to increase the resilience of maerl beds under the future global climate change scenario.},
}
@article {pmid31937881,
year = {2020},
author = {Schulz, S and Darehshouri, S and Hassanzadeh, E and Tajrishy, M and Schüth, C},
title = {Climate change or irrigated agriculture - what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {236},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-57150-y},
pmid = {31937881},
issn = {2045-2322},
support = {57156376//Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst/ ; },
abstract = {Lake Urmia is one of the largest hypersaline lakes on earth with a unique biodiversity. Over the past two decades the lake water level declined dramatically, threatening the functionality of the lake's ecosystems. There is a controversial debate about the reasons for this decline, with either mismanagement of the water resources, or climatic changes assumed to be the main cause. In this study we quantified the water budget components of Lake Urmia and analyzed their temporal evolution and interplay over the last five decades. With this we can show that variations of Lake Urmia's water level during the analyzed period were mainly triggered by climatic changes. However, under the current climatic conditions agricultural water extraction volumes are significant compared to the remaining surface water inflow volumes. Changes in agricultural water withdrawal would have a significant impact on the lake volume and could either stabilize the lake, or lead to its complete collapse.},
}
@article {pmid31934624,
year = {2020},
author = {Yan, Z and Wu, B and Li, T and Collins, M and Clark, R and Zhou, T and Murphy, J and Tan, G},
title = {Eastward shift and extension of ENSO-induced tropical precipitation anomalies under global warming.},
journal = {Science advances},
volume = {6},
number = {2},
pages = {eaax4177},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aax4177},
pmid = {31934624},
issn = {2375-2548},
abstract = {During El Niño events, increased precipitation occurs over the equatorial central eastern Pacific, corresponding to enhanced convective heating that modulates global climate by exciting atmospheric teleconnections. These precipitation anomalies are projected to shift and extend eastward in response to global warming. We show that this predicted change is caused by narrowing of the meridional span of the underlying El Niño-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that leads to intensification of the meridional gradient of the SST anomalies, strengthening boundary-layer moisture convergence over the equatorial eastern Pacific, and enhancing local positive precipitation anomalies. The eastward shift and extension of these anomalies also intensify and extend eastward negative precipitation anomalies over the tropical western North Pacific, by strengthening equatorward advection of low mean moist enthalpy. Changes in El Niño-induced tropical precipitation anomalies suggest that, under global warming, El Niño events decay faster after their peak phase, thus shortening their duration.},
}
@article {pmid31932433,
year = {2020},
author = {Roche, KR and Müller-Itten, M and Dralle, DN and Bolster, D and Müller, MF},
title = {Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1914829117},
pmid = {31932433},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships-is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict.},
}
@article {pmid31932430,
year = {2020},
author = {Wang, X and Luo, J and Yuan, W and Lin, CJ and Wang, F and Liu, C and Wang, G and Feng, X},
title = {Global warming accelerates uptake of atmospheric mercury in regions experiencing glacier retreat.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1906930117},
pmid = {31932430},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {As global climate continues to warm, melting of glaciers releases a large quantity of mercury (Hg) originally locked in ice into the atmosphere and downstream ecosystems. Here, we show an opposite process that captures atmospheric Hg through glacier-to-vegetation succession. Our study using stable isotope techniques at 3 succession sites on the Tibetan Plateau reveals that evolving vegetation serves as an active &quot;pump&quot; to take up gaseous elemental mercury (Hg0) from the atmosphere. The accelerated uptake enriches the Hg pool size in glacier-retreated areas by a factor of ∼10 compared with the original pool size in the glacier. Through an assessment of Hg source-sink relationship observed in documented glacier-retreated areas in the world (7 sites of tundra/steppe succession and 5 sites of forest succession), we estimate that 400 to 600 Mg of Hg has been accumulated in glacier-retreated areas (5‰ of the global land surface) since the Little Ice Age (∼1850). By 2100, an additional ∼300 Mg of Hg will be sequestered from the atmosphere in glacier-retreated regions globally, which is ∼3 times the total Hg mass loss by meltwater efflux (∼95 Mg) in alpine and subpolar glacier regions. The recapturing of atmospheric Hg by vegetation in glacier-retreated areas is not accounted for in current global Hg models. Similar processes are likely to occur in other regions that experience increased vegetation due to climate or land use changes, which need to be considered in the assessment of global Hg cycling.},
}
@article {pmid31932144,
year = {2020},
author = {Yu, P and Xu, R and Abramson, MJ and Li, S and Guo, Y},
title = {Bushfires in Australia: a serious health emergency under climate change.},
journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30267-0},
pmid = {31932144},
issn = {2542-5196},
}
@article {pmid31931907,
year = {2019},
author = {Butler, CD and Hanigan, IC},
title = {Anthropogenic climate change and health in the Global South.},
journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease},
volume = {23},
number = {12},
pages = {1243-1252},
doi = {10.5588/ijtld.19.0267},
pmid = {31931907},
issn = {1815-7920},
abstract = {This paper explores evidence relevant to the hypothesis that human-generated climate change (global warming) is already, and will increasingly, add to the existing burden of disadvantage experienced by populations in low-income countries, the 'Global South'. Well recognised health manifestations of global warming include from heatwaves and other extreme weather events, changes to infectious disease patterns, and undernutrition, arising from higher food prices, reduced food availability and reduced nutrient concentrations of many foods. These effects have been called 'primary' and 'secondary'. Although these manifestations will have effects globally, their biggest impact on health is and will be upon poor and vulnerable populations in low-income settings. Also well recognised, manual labourers are increasingly vulnerable from excessive heat and humidity. There is less recognition that climate change interacts with social and political determinants of health, contributing to 'tertiary' health consequences including conflict, forced migration and famine. In turn, these effects may deepen poverty traps in the Global South. Human-generated climate change is principally caused by the policies and lifestyles of populations in high-income countries (the Global North). The recent recognition by the British government that climate change is an emergency is encouraging, and may help motivate the widespread global behavioural changes that are needed to reduce the many risks from global warming, including to the people of the South.},
}
@article {pmid31931734,
year = {2020},
author = {Nah, K and Bede-Fazekas, Á and Trájer, AJ and Wu, J},
title = {The potential impact of climate change on the transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Hungary.},
journal = {BMC infectious diseases},
volume = {20},
number = {1},
pages = {34},
doi = {10.1186/s12879-019-4734-4},
pmid = {31931734},
issn = {1471-2334},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Impact of climate change on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle in a given region depends on how the region-specific climate change patterns influence tick population development processes and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) transmission dynamics involving both systemic and co-feeding transmission routes. Predicting the transmission risk of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with projected climate conditions is essential for planning public health interventions including vaccination programs to mitigate the TBE incidence in the inhabitants and travelers. We have previously developed and validated a mathematical model for retroactive analysis of weather fluctuation on TBE prevalence in Hungary, and we aim to show in this research that this model provides an effective tool for projecting TBEV transmission risk in the enzootic cycle.<br><br>METHODS: Using the established model of TBEV transmission and the climate predictions of the Vas county in western Hungary in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, we quantify the risk of TBEV transmission using a series of summative indices - the basic reproduction number, the duration of infestation, the stage-specific tick densities, and the accumulated (tick) infections due to co-feeding transmission. We also measure the significance of co-feeding transmission by observing the cumulative number of new transmissions through the non-systemic transmission route.<br><br>RESULTS: The transmission potential and the risk in the study site are expected to increase along with the increase of the temperature in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. This increase will be facilitated by the expected extension of the tick questing season and the increase of the numbers of susceptible ticks (larval and nymphal) and the number of infected nymphal ticks co-feeding on the same hosts, leading to compounded increase of infections through the non-systemic transmission.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The developed mathematical model provides an effective tool for predicting TBE prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle, by integrating climate projection with emerging knowledge about the region-specific tick ecological and pathogen enzootic processes (through model parametrization fitting to historical data). Model projects increasing co-feeding transmission and prevalence of TBEV in a recognized TBE endemic region, so human risk of TBEV infection is likely increasing unless public health interventions are enhanced.},
}
@article {pmid31931200,
year = {2020},
author = {Cong, J and Gao, C and Han, D and Li, Y and Wang, G},
title = {Stability of the permafrost peatlands carbon pool under climate change and wildfires during the last 150 years in the northern Great Khingan Mountains, China.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {712},
number = {},
pages = {136476},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136476},
pmid = {31931200},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Peatlands store one-third of the total global soil carbon (C.) despite covering only 3-4% of the global land surface. Most peatlands are distributed in mid-high latitude regions and are even in permafrost regions, are sensitive to climate change and are disturbed by wildfire. Although several studies have focused on the impact of historical climate change and regional human activities on the C. accumulation process in these peatlands, the impact of these factors on the stability of the C. pool remains poorly understood. Here, based on the 210Pb age-depth model, we investigated the historical variations of C. stability during the last 150 years for five typical peatlands in the northern Great Khingan Mountains (Northeast China), an area located in a permafrost region that is sensitive to climate change and to wildfires, which have clearly increased due to regional human activities. The results showed that low C. accumulation rates (CARs) and weakly C. stability in studied peatlands before 1900. While, the increasing anthropogenic wildfire frequency and the residual products (e.g. pyrogenic carbon) increased the CARs and C. stability in peatlands from 1900 to 1980. The mean July temperature is the most important climate factor for peatlands C. stability. After 1980, due to the low wildfire frequencies influenced by human policies, increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation not only increased the CARs but also markedly increased the C. stability of the peatlands C. pool in the northern Great Khingan Mountains, especially after 2000.},
}
@article {pmid31930962,
year = {2020},
author = {Bhandari, D and Bi, P and Sherchand, JB and Dhimal, M and Hanson-Easey, S},
title = {Climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal: Are the available prerequisites supportive enough to researchers?.},
journal = {Acta tropica},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {105337},
doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105337},
pmid = {31930962},
issn = {1873-6254},
abstract = {Although Nepal has been identified as a country highly vulnerable to adverse health and socioeconomic impacts arising from climate change, extant research on climate sensitive infectious diseases has yet to develop the evidence base to adequately address these threats. In this opinion paper we identify and characterise basic requirements that are hindering the progress of climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal. Our opinion is that immediate attention should be given to strengthening Nepal's public health surveillance system, promoting inter-sectoral collaboration, improving public health capacity, and enhancing community engagement in disease surveillance. Moreover, we advocate for greater technical support of public health researchers, and data sharing among data custodians and epidemiologists/researchers, to generate salient evidence to guide relevant public health policy formulation aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change on human health in Nepal. International studies on climate variability and infectious diseases have clearly demonstrated that climate sensitive diseases, namely vector-borne and food/water-borne diseases, are sensitive to climate variation and climate change. This research has driven the development and implementation of climate-based early warning systems for preventing potential outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases across many European and African countries. Similarly, we postulate that Nepal would greatly benefit from a climate-based early warning system, which would assist in identification or prediction of conditions suitable for disease emergence and facilitate a timely response to reduce mortality and morbidity during epidemics.},
}
@article {pmid31929187,
year = {2020},
author = {Pacheco, SE},
title = {Catastrophic effects of climate change on children's health start before birth.},
journal = {The Journal of clinical investigation},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1172/JCI135005},
pmid = {31929187},
issn = {1558-8238},
}
@article {pmid31927281,
year = {2019},
author = {Payen, S and Falconer, S and Carlson, B and Yang, W and Ledgard, S},
title = {Eutrophication and climate change impacts of a case study of New Zealand beef to the European market.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {710},
number = {},
pages = {136120},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136120},
pmid = {31927281},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Beef production in the Lake Taupō region of New Zealand (NZ) is regulated for nitrogen (N) leaching. The objectives of this study were to 1) evaluate the implications of nitrogen emission limitations on eutrophication and climate change impacts of NZ beef through its life cycle to a European market and uniquely link it to 2) estimation of the reduction in these impacts that can be funded by the consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) a premium for a low environmental-impact product.<br><br>METHOD: The cradle-to-market Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of NZ beef on the European market included beef production on farms, meat processing, packaging and transport stages. Various beef production systems in the Lake Taupō region were modelled: farm systems with and without regulated N leaching limits in place (using N fertiliser inputs of 0 and 100 kg N/ha/year respectively) using suckler beef or beef derived from surplus calves from a dairy farm. The FARMAX model was used to model farm productivity and profitability under these various scenarios, whereas the OVERSEER® model was used to model field/farm emissions (N, phosphorus (P)) and the NZ greenhouse gas (GHG) Inventory model was used to estimate total GHG emissions. Eutrophication and climate change impacts of NZ beef to the European market were calculated using recent regionalised LCA indicators. We estimated freshwater and marine eutrophication impacts of European beef using published N emissions to water and air. We estimated the European consumer's WTP for beef with positive environmental attributes based on a meta-regression analysis based on 21 published studies and compared farmer's profit for the farm system scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: When using common P-driven eutrophication indicators, the farms using 100 kg fertiliser-N/ha/year appeared to have a lower freshwater eutrophication impact than farms using no N fertiliser, which is in contradiction with the local freshwater policy for N regulations. When the contribution of both N and P were accounted for, the farms using no N fertiliser had the lowest estimated impact. Comparison with published environmental footprint of beef from Europe showed lower climate change and eutrophication impacts for NZ beef, thus showing potential positive environmental attributes for NZ beef. The European consumer's WTP (32% price premium) for such a beef product with low environmental impacts could offset the cost to farmers for implementing the reduction of N emissions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Bridging the gap between local freshwater policy and LCA indicators starts by considering both P and N emissions and impacts. Combining an environmental LCA with an economic analysis revealed that the consumer willingness to pay could compensate for the environmental cost of protecting the lake that currently only the farmers are bearing.},
}
@article {pmid31926410,
year = {2019},
author = {Rasmus, S and Turunen, M and Luomaranta, A and Kivinen, S and Jylhä, K and Räihä, J},
title = {Climate change and reindeer management in Finland: Co-analysis of practitioner knowledge and meteorological data for better adaptation.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {710},
number = {},
pages = {136229},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136229},
pmid = {31926410},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {We studied interannual variability and changes over time in selected climate indices in the reindeer management area (RMA) in northern Finland. We present together the knowledge possessed by reindeer herders with information from meteorological measurements over three decades. The practitioner knowledge was gathered via a survey questionnaire addressing herder observations of long-term changes (approximately during the past 30 years) in climatic conditions and their impacts on herding during the four seasons. A set of temperature-, precipitation- and snow-related indices relevant for herding within the RMA was derived from spatially interpolated daily meteorological data (1981-2010). Climatic changes detected based on the measurement data were mainly consistent with earlier studies, and practitioner knowledge was generally in line with the meteorological data. The herders had experienced the largest number of changes during the winter, and the smallest number of changes during the summer. The herders reported various impacts of changing seasonal weather on reindeer condition and behavior, and on herding practices. Adaptation to the changing conditions requires adoption of various coping strategies by the herders in their everyday work, continuous development of professional techniques and practices, as well as support received from the governance of reindeer management. We conclude that holistic understanding of the impacts of climate change and adaptation to changes in the future requires simultaneous analyses of data from different sources, more research co-defined with local practitioners, and co-planned governance solutions. The approach presented in this work can ease the dialogue between the local practitioners, researchers and policy makers.},
}
@article {pmid31925853,
year = {2020},
author = {Laidre, KL and Atkinson, S and Regehr, EV and Stern, HL and Born, EW and Wiig, Ø and Lunn, NJ and Dyck, M},
title = {Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator.},
journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1002/eap.2071},
pmid = {31925853},
issn = {1051-0761},
abstract = {Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical-capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea-ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 days on land (90 days total in the 2000s compared to the 1990s), a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea-ice breakup and fall sea-ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea-ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 years). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea-ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.},
}
@article {pmid31925690,
year = {2020},
author = {Sarkar, MSK and Begum, RA and Pereira, JJ},
title = {Impacts of climate change on oil palm production in Malaysia.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-07601-1},
pmid = {31925690},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {Studies reveal that climate change (CC) has higher negative impacts on agricultural production than positive impacts. Therefore, this article attempts to explore the impacts of CC on oil palm production in Malaysia and provides mitigation and adaptation strategies towards reducing such impacts. The multiple regression analysis is applied to assess the impacts of CC on oil palm production by using time series data in the period of 1980 to 2010. A negative and significant relationship is found between annual average temperature and oil palm production. If temperature rises by 1 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C, production of oil palm can decrease from a range of 10 to 41%. This article has also found a negative impact of sea level rise (SLR) on oil palm production. Findings reveal that if areas under oil palm production decrease by 2%, 4%, and 8% due to SLR of 0.5, 1, and 2 m, oil palm production can decrease by 1.98%, 3.96%, and 7.92%, respectively, indicating that CC has a significant impact on the reduction of oil palm production in Malaysia, ultimately affecting the sustainability of oil palm sector in Malaysia. Finally, this study suggests to practice appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies, including promotion and development of climate resilient varieties, soil and water conservation, afforestation, insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms, emission reduction technology, protection of coastal flooding for reducing the impacts of CC on oil palm production.},
}
@article {pmid31925107,
year = {2019},
author = {Weizman, E and Levy, O},
title = {The role of chromatin dynamics under global warming response in the symbiotic coral model Aiptasia.},
journal = {Communications biology},
volume = {2},
number = {1},
pages = {282},
doi = {10.1038/s42003-019-0543-y},
pmid = {31925107},
issn = {2399-3642},
support = {4598//Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (Gordon E. and Betty I. Moore Foundation)/ ; 4598//Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (Gordon E. and Betty I. Moore Foundation)/ ; },
abstract = {Extreme weather events frequency and scale are altered due to climate change. Symbiosis between corals and their endosymbiotic-dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium) is susceptible to these events and can lead to what is known as bleaching. However, there is evidence for coral adaptive plasticity in the role of epigenetic that have acclimated to high-temperature environments. We have implemented ATAC-seq and RNA-seq to study the cnidarian-dinoflagellate model Exaptasia pallida (Aiptasia) and expose the role of chromatin-dynamics in response to thermal-stress. We have identified 1309 genomic sites that change their accessibility in response to thermal changes. Moreover, apo-symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NFAT, ATF4, GATA3, SOX14, and PAX3 motifs and expressed genes related to immunological pathways. Symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NKx3-1, HNF4A, IRF4 motifs and expressed genes related to oxidative-stress pathways. Our work opens a new path towards understanding thermal-stress gene regulation in association with gene activity and chromatin-dynamics.},
}
@article {pmid31924524,
year = {2020},
author = {Hackett, F and Got, T and Kitching, GT and MacQueen, K and Cohen, A},
title = {Training Canadian doctors for the health challenges of climate change.},
journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30242-6},
pmid = {31924524},
issn = {2542-5196},
}
@article {pmid31923278,
year = {2020},
author = {Wilson, TJB and Cooley, SR and Tai, TC and Cheung, WWL and Tyedmers, PH},
title = {Potential socioeconomic impacts from ocean acidification and climate change effects on Atlantic Canadian fisheries.},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {15},
number = {1},
pages = {e0226544},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0226544},
pmid = {31923278},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {Ocean acidification is an emerging consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The full extent of the biological impacts are currently not entirely defined. However, it is expected that invertebrate species that rely on the mineral calcium carbonate will be directly affected. Despite the limited understanding of the full extent of potential impacts and responses there is a need to identify potential pathways for human societies to be affected by ocean acidification. Research on these social implications is a small but developing field. This research contributes to this field by using an impact assessment framework, informed by a biophysical model of future species distributions, to investigate potential impacts facing Atlantic Canadian society from potential changes in shellfish fisheries driven by ocean acidification and climate change. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are expected to see declines in resource accessibility but are relatively socially insulated from these changes. Conversely, Prince Edward Island, along with Newfoundland and Labrador are more socially vulnerable to potential losses in fisheries, but are expected to experience relatively minor net changes in access.},
}
@article {pmid31922141,
year = {2019},
author = {Ghosh, S and Mukhopadhyay, J and Chakraborty, A},
title = {Clay Mineral and Geochemical Proxies for Intense Climate Change in the Permian Gondwana Rock Record from Eastern India.},
journal = {Research (Washington, D.C.)},
volume = {2019},
number = {},
pages = {8974075},
doi = {10.34133/2019/8974075},
pmid = {31922141},
issn = {2639-5274},
abstract = {The clay mineral assemblages and geochemical compositions of the Permian Talchir and Barakar mudstones of the Raniganj basin, India, have been used to interpret terrestrial paleoclimate. The Talchir Formation presents unequivocal evidences of the Permian global glacial climate, and the overlying Barakar Formation with braided fluvial deposits immediately follows the glacial amelioration stage to a humid warm climate. Sediments unaffected by burial diagenesis and originated from a similar source under contrasting climates are ideal for developing proxies for substantial climate shift. Illite (28.4-63.8%), illite/smectite (0-58.6%, 40-80% illite), chlorite (0-53.9%), and chlorite/smectite (5.6-29.8%) constitute the clay mineral assemblage in the Talchir Formation whereas illite (5.3-78.2%), illite/smectite (trace-34.1%, mostly 60-90% illite), and kaolinite (36.1-86.8%) dominate the clay mineral assemblage in the Barakar Formation. The Talchir mudrocks are enriched in mobile elements and depleted in alumina w.r.t. PAAS, have relatively higher K2O/Al2O3 ratios (~0.3), high ICV (1.12-1.28), and lower CIA values (52.6-65.1) compared to those of the younger Barakar mudstones. The Barakar mudstones are depleted in mobile elements w.r.t. PAAS, have relatively low ICV (0.33-0.62) and K2O/Al2O3 values (0.11-0.16), and higher CIA values (72.9-88.2). Textural, mineralogical immaturity, and rock fragments of different components of the basement seen in the Talchir sandstones show these sediments being a first-cycle sedimentary deposit. The distinctive clay mineral assemblage and major oxide composition of the Talchir mudrocks attest to a unique low intensity chemical weathering in cold arid climate. Significant presence of kaolinite as well as distinctive geochemical characters of the Barakar mudrocks marks a shift in the paleoclimate from cold arid to humid. This climatic shift is further supported by the proportion and composition of illite/smectite across the formations. The relative proportion of chlorite and kaolinite and composition of illite/smectite therefore closely corroborate the significant climate shift, and such proxies, therefore, are useful indicators of climate extremes in the geological record.},
}
@article {pmid31921733,
year = {2019},
author = {Jessel, S and Sawyer, S and Hernández, D},
title = {Energy, Poverty, and Health in Climate Change: A Comprehensive Review of an Emerging Literature.},
journal = {Frontiers in public health},
volume = {7},
number = {},
pages = {357},
doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2019.00357},
pmid = {31921733},
issn = {2296-2565},
abstract = {Household energy is increasingly vital for maintaining good health. Unaffordable and inadequate household energy presents adverse consequences that are amplified by poverty and a changing climate. To date, the connections between energy, socioeconomic disadvantage, and well-being are generally underappreciated, and household energy connection with climate change is under-researched. Building on the energy insecurity framework, this review explores literature related to household energy, poverty, and health in order to highlight the disproportionate burdens borne by vulnerable populations in adequately meeting household energy needs. This paper is based on a comprehensive review of books, peer-reviewed articles, and reports published between 1990 and 2019, identified via databases including JSTOR and PubMed. A total of 406 publications were selected as having potential for full review, 203 received full review, and 162 were included in this paper on the basis of set inclusion criteria. From the literature review, we created an original heuristic model that describes energy insecurity as either acute or chronic, and we further explore the mediators and pathways that link energy insecurity to health. In the discussion, we posit that the extant literature does not sufficiently consider that vulnerable communities often experience energy insecurity bundled with other hardships. We also discuss energy, poverty, and health through the lens of climate change, making the criticism that most research on household energy does not consider climate change. This evidence is important for enhancing research in this field and developing programmatic and policy interventions as they pertain to energy access, affordability, and health, with special emphasis on vulnerable populations, climate change, and social inequality.},
}
@article {pmid31919925,
year = {2020},
author = {Fabri-Ruiz, S and Danis, B and Navarro, N and Koubbi, P and Laffont, R and Saucède, T},
title = {Benthic Ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14988},
pmid = {31919925},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well-delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so-called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two-step approach was developed combining species distribution modelling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modelling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO are discussed with regards to the modeled benthic ecoregions. Twelve benthic ecoregions were determined under Present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of CCAMLR for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.},
}
@article {pmid31919817,
year = {2020},
author = {Nasir, IR and Rasul, F and Ahmad, A and Asghar, HN and Hoogenboom, G},
title = {Climate change impacts and adaptations for fine, coarse, and hybrid rice using CERES-Rice.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07080-z},
pmid = {31919817},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {Climate change has become a threatening issue for major field crops of Pakistan, especially rice. A 2 years' (2014 and 2015) field trial was conducted on fine, coarse, and hybrid rice at Research Area, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad following the split-plot design. Data of growth, yield, and yield components were collected to calibrate and evaluate the CERES-Rice model under Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT). Two cultivars of each type of fine, coarse, and hybrid rice were transplanted with interval of fortnight from May to September during 2014 and 2015. The model was calibrated with non-stressed sowing data during the year 2014 and evaluated with the data of 2015. Climate change scenarios were generated for mid-century (2040-2069) under representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) using different general circulation models (GCMs) (baseline, cool dry, hot dry, cool wet, hot wet, and middle) were using different General Circulation Models (GCMs). CERES-Rice calibration and evaluation results were quite good to simulate impacts of climate change and to formulate adaptations during 2040-2069 (mid-century). Simulations of all GCMs showed an average increase of 3 °C in average temperature as compared to baseline (1980-2010). Likewise, there would be an average increase of 107.6 mm in rainfall than baseline. The future rise in temperature will reduced the paddy yield by 10.33% in fine, 18-54% in coarse and 24-64% in hybrid rice for mid-century under RCP8.5. To nullified deleterious effects of climate change, some agronomic and genetics adaptation strategies were evaluated with CERES-rice during mid-century. Paddy yield of fine rice was increased by 15% in cool dry and 5% in hot dry GCM. Paddy yield of coarse rice was improved by 15% and 9% under cool dry and hot dry climatic conditions, respectively, with adaptations. For hybrid rice, paddy yield was enhanced by 15% and 0.3% with cool wet and hot dry climatic conditions, respectively. Hot dry climatic conditions were the most threatening for rice crop in rice producing areas of Punjab, Pakistan.},
}
@article {pmid31918185,
year = {2019},
author = {Bove, G and Becker, A and Sweeney, B and Vousdoukas, M and Kulp, S},
title = {A method for regional estimation of climate change exposure of coastal infrastructure: Case of USVI and the influence of digital elevation models on assessments.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {710},
number = {},
pages = {136162},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136162},
pmid = {31918185},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This study tests the impacts of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data on an exposure assessment methodology developed to quantify flooding of coastal infrastructure from storms and sea level rise on a regional scale. The approach is piloted on the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) for a one-hundred-year storm event in 2050 under the IPCC's 8.5 emission scenario (RCP 8,5).<br><br>METHOD: Flooding of individual infrastructure was tested against three different digital elevation models using a GIS-based coastal infrastructure database created specifically for the project using aerial images. Inundation for extreme sea levels is based on dynamic simulations using Lisflood-ACC (LFP).<br><br>RESULTS: The model indicates transport and utility infrastructure in the USVI are considerably exposed to sea level rise and modeled storm impacts from climate change. Prediction of flood extent was improved with a neural network processed SRTM, versus publicly available SRTM (~30 m) seamless C-band DEM but both SRTM based models underestimate flooding compared to LIDAR DEM. The modeled scenario, although conservative, showed significant flood exposure to a large number of access roads to facilities, 113/176 transportation related buildings, and 29/66 electric utility and water treatment buildings including six electric power transformers and six waste water treatment clarifiers.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The method bridges a gap between large-scale non-specific flood assessments and single-facility detailed assessments and can be used to efficiently quantify and prioritize parcels and large structures in need of further assessment for regions that lack detailed data to assess climate exposure to sea level rise and flooding caused by waves. The method should prove particularly useful for assessment of Small Island Developing State regions that lack LIDAR data, such as the Caribbean.},
}
@article {pmid31917730,
year = {2020},
author = {Martin, G and Reilly, KC and Gilliland, JA},
title = {Impact of awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health: a scoping review protocol.},
journal = {JBI database of systematic reviews and implementation reports},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.11124/JBISRIR-D-19-00253},
pmid = {31917730},
issn = {2202-4433},
abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this scoping review is to identify and describe the existing literature on the impact of the overarching awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health and wellbeing.<br><br>INTRODUCTION: Children are widely acknowledged as being disproportionately at risk to the effects of climate change, yet research overlooks the impact that climate change has on their mental health. Children's overarching awareness of climate change, and its global effects, may influence their mental health and wellbeing.<br><br>INCLUSION CRITERIA: This review will include all research that addresses school-aged children's (those aged 3-19) mental-health issues stemming from an awareness of climate change. It will not include research that examines direct impacts of climate change on children's mental health, such as trauma from a specific climate-related event.<br><br>METHODS: Searches will be conducted across eight research databases (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Embase, GreenFILE, PubMed, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus) and three unpublished/grey literature databases (ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, GreyLit.org, and OpenGrey). Data will be extracted for author(s), year of publication, country of origin, purpose, population, methodology, concepts of interest; outcomes; and key findings relating to the scoping review objectives. Findings will be presented as a narrative summary.},
}
@article {pmid31916265,
year = {2020},
author = {Eguiluz-Gracia, I and Mathioudakis, AG and Bartel, S and Vijverberg, SJ and Fuertes, E and Comberiati, P and Cai, YS and Tomazic, PV and Diamant, Z and Vestbo, J and Galan, C and Hoffmann, B},
title = {The need for clean air: the way air pollution and climate change affect allergic rhinitis and asthma.},
journal = {Allergy},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/all.14177},
pmid = {31916265},
issn = {1398-9995},
abstract = {Air pollution and climate change have a significant impact on human health and well-being and contribute to the onset and aggravation of allergic rhinitis and asthma among other chronic respiratory diseases. In Westernized countries, households have experienced a process of increasing insulation and individuals tend to spend most of their time indoors. These sequelae implicate a high exposure to indoor allergens (house dust mites, pets, molds, etc.), tobacco smoke and other pollutants, which have an impact on respiratory health. Outdoor air pollution derived from traffic and other human activities not only has a direct negative effect on human health but also enhances the allergenicity of some plants and contributes to global warming. Climate change modifies the availability and distribution of plant- and fungal-derived allergens and increases the frequency of extreme climate events. This review summarizes the effects of indoor air pollution, outdoor air pollution and subsequent climate change on asthma and allergic rhinitis in children and adults and addresses the policy adjustments and lifestyle changes required to mitigate their deleterious effects.},
}
@article {pmid31913276,
year = {2020},
author = {Yamaguchi, M and Chan, JCL and Moon, IJ and Yoshida, K and Mizuta, R},
title = {Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {47},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-13902-y},
pmid = {31913276},
issn = {2041-1723},
abstract = {Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration of influence. Combined with expected increase in rain rates associated with TCs in a warmer climate, there is growing interest in TC translation speed in the past and future. Here we present that a slowdown trend of the translation speed is not simulated for the period 1951-2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find that the annual-mean translation speed could increase under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties in the future projections of TC characteristics, our model simulations show that the average TC translation speed at higher latitudes becomes smaller in a warmer climate, but the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes increases. Since the translation speed is much larger in the extratropics, the increase in the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes compensates the reduction of the translation speed there, leading to a global mean increase in TC translation speed.},
}
@article {pmid31912954,
year = {2020},
author = {Bastiaansen, R and Doelman, A and Eppinga, MB and Rietkerk, M},
title = {The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation.},
journal = {Ecology letters},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/ele.13449},
pmid = {31912954},
issn = {1461-0248},
support = {657.014.002//Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; },
abstract = {In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patterns - typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.},
}
@article {pmid31912657,
year = {2020},
author = {Long, KL and Prothero, DR and Syverson, VJP},
title = {How do small birds evolve in response to climate change? Data from the long-term record at La Brea tar pits.},
journal = {Integrative zoology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12426},
pmid = {31912657},
issn = {1749-4877},
abstract = {Biology textbooks describe the small changes in the beaks of the Galápagos finches as exemplars of how birds evolve in response to environmental changes. Yet recent studies of the abundant fossil birds at Rancho La Brea finds no evidence of evolutionary responses to the dramatic climate changes of the glacial-interglacial cycle over the last 35,000 years: none of the large birds exhibit any change in body size or limb proportions, even during the last glacial maximum about 18,000-20,000 years ago, when the southern California chaparral was replaced by snowy coniferous forests. But these are all large birds with large ranges and broad habitat preferences, capable of living in many different environments. Perhaps the smaller birds at La Brea, which have smaller home ranges and narrower habitats, might respond to climate more like Galápagos finches. The only three common small birds at La Brea are the Western Meadowlark, the Yellow-Billed Magpie, and the Raven. In this study, we demonstrate that these birds also show complete stasis over the last glacial-interglacial cycle, with no statistically significant changes between dated pits. Recent research suggests that the small-scale changes over short time scales seen in the Galápagos finches are merely fluctuations around a stable morphology, and rarely lead to long-term accumulation of changes or speciation. Instead, the prevalence of stasis supports the view that long-term directional changes in morphology are quite rare. While directional changes in morphology occur frequently over short (<1ka) timescales, in the long term such changes only rarely remain stable for long enough to appear in the fossil record. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid31912388,
year = {2020},
author = {Huang, L and Chen, K and Zhou, M},
title = {Climate change and carbon sink: a bibliometric analysis.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07489-6},
pmid = {31912388},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {71903133//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71973100//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71573179//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; },
abstract = {In recent years, climate change and carbon sinks have been widely studied by the academic community, and relevant research results have emerged in abundance. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 747 academic works published between 1991 and 2018 related to climate change and carbon sinks is presented to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and revealing the basic characteristics, research power, intellectual base, research topic evolution, and research hotspots in this field. The results show that ① the number of publications in this field has increased rapidly and the field has become increasingly interdisciplinary; ② the most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in the USA, China, Canada, Australia, and European countries, and the cooperation between these researchers is closer than other researchers in the field; ③ 11 of the 747 papers analyzed in this study have played a key role in the evolution of the field; and ④ in this paper, we divide research hotspots into three decade-long phases (1991-1999, 2000-2010, and 2011-present). Drought problems have attracted more and more attention from scholars. In the end, given the current trend of the studies, we conclude a list of research potentials of climate change and carbon sinks in the future. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of climate change and carbon sink research to better understand the global trends and directions that have emerged in this field over the past 28 years, which can also provide reference for future research in this field.},
}
@article {pmid31909813,
year = {2020},
author = {Pareek, A and Dhankher, OP and Foyer, CH},
title = {Mitigating the impact of climate change on plant productivity and ecosystem sustainability.},
journal = {Journal of experimental botany},
volume = {71},
number = {2},
pages = {451-456},
doi = {10.1093/jxb/erz518},
pmid = {31909813},
issn = {1460-2431},
}
@article {pmid31909393,
year = {2020},
author = {Shapiro, LT and Gater, DR and Espinel, Z and Kossin, JP and Galea, S and Shultz, JM},
title = {Preparing individuals with spinal cord injury for extreme storms in the era of climate change.},
journal = {EClinicalMedicine},
volume = {18},
number = {},
pages = {100232},
doi = {10.1016/j.eclinm.2019.12.002},
pmid = {31909393},
issn = {2589-5370},
}
@article {pmid31909268,
year = {2020},
author = {Portilla Cabrera, CV and Selvaraj, JJ},
title = {Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia.},
journal = {Heliyon},
volume = {6},
number = {1},
pages = {e03101},
doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03101},
pmid = {31909268},
issn = {2405-8440},
abstract = {The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.},
}
@article {pmid31908681,
year = {2019},
author = {Singh, J and Schädler, M and Demetrio, W and Brown, GG and Eisenhauer, N},
title = {Climate change effects on earthworms - a review.},
journal = {Soil organisms},
volume = {91},
number = {3},
pages = {114-138},
doi = {10.25674/so91iss3pp114},
pmid = {31908681},
issn = {1864-6417},
abstract = {Climate change can have a plethora of effects on organisms above and below the ground in terrestrial ecosystems. Given the tremendous biodiversity in the soil and the many ecosystem functions governed by soil organisms, the drivers of soil biodiversity have received increasing attention. Various climatic factors like temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, as well as extreme climate events like drought and flood have been shown to alter the composition and functioning of communities in the soil. Earthworms are important ecosystem engineers in the soils of temperate and tropical climates and play crucial roles for many ecosystem services, including decomposition, nutrient cycling, and crop yield. Here, we review the published literature on climate change effects on earthworm communities and activity. In general, we find highly species- and ecological group-specific responses to climate change, which are likely to result in altered earthworm community composition in future ecosystems. Earthworm activity, abundance, and biomass tend to increase with increasing temperature at sufficiently high soil water content, while climate extremes like drought and flooding have deleterious effects. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the invasion of earthworms at higher latitudes and altitudes, while dryer and warmer conditions may limit earthworm performance in other regions of the world. The present summary of available information provides a first baseline for predictions of future earthworm distribution. It also reveals the shortage of studies on interacting effects of multiple global change effects on earthworms, such as potential context-dependent effects of climate change at different soil pollution levels and across ecosystem types.},
}
@article {pmid31907724,
year = {2020},
author = {Naod, E and Addisu Legesse, S and Tegegne, F},
title = {Livestock diversification prospects for climate change adaptation in Dangila district, Ethiopia.},
journal = {Tropical animal health and production},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11250-019-02149-w},
pmid = {31907724},
issn = {1573-7438},
abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase weather variability and incidences of extreme events, which will have an impact on livelihoods and wellbeing. This study was intended to assess the role of livestock diversification in minimizing climate change adverse impacts on livelihood assets in Dangila district, Ethiopia. A random sampling technique was used, and 107 sample households were selected. Primary data were collected through field visit and interview, whereas secondary data were collected from the district agricultural office and meteorological stations. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics, correlation and multiple linear regressions were used for testing the hypotheses. Accordingly, the results revealed that weather shocks affected livelihood assets negatively and significantly (β = - .157, p < 0.05) than other shocks. There has been a significant positive interaction effect (β = .197, p < 0.05) between adaptive capacity and weather shock which implies that a household's adaptive capacity (through livestock diversification) counteracts the adverse effects of weather shocks on livelihood assets. Cattle population size has decreased by 19.8% from 2008 to 2017, which infers that reductions in rainfall amount and variation drive the downward trend in cattle number. To conclude, the efforts, which were achieved in terms of sustainable adaptation practices that enhance the resilience of household's livelihood assets, were not adequate. Therefore, to further enhance households' adaptive capacity, improvement in livestock diversification through the provision of a package of livestock species and access to credit for youths were recommended.},
}
@article {pmid31905572,
year = {2019},
author = {Li, J and Ma, X and Zhang, C},
title = {Predicting the spatiotemporal variation in soil wind erosion across Central Asia in response to climate change in the 21st century.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {709},
number = {},
pages = {136060},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136060},
pmid = {31905572},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Wind erosion is an important environmental issue in Central Asia (CA), which includes Xinjiang, China (XJ-China), and the five CA states of the former Soviet Union (CAS5). Future climate changes could accelerate wind erosion in arid and semiarid areas and negatively impact local soil health and productivity. Based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) climate model, we simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil wind erosion from 1986 to 2099 in CA using the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) model. Our analysis indicated that the annual soil wind erosion modulus during the prediction period (2006-2099) increased compared with that in the reference period (1986-2005), especially in the 2030s (18.71%) and 2050s (18.85%) under RCP4.5. Spring and winter soil wind erosion will be the major contributors to increased annual wind erosion. We predicted that spring soil wind erosion will increase by 10.34% (RCP4.5) to 10.71% (RCP8.5) and that winter soil wind erosion will increase by 23.32% (RCP4.5) to 33.74% (RCP8.5) in the late 21st century. Annual soil wind erosion will increase in the northwest of CA, but decrease in the Karakum Desert, Kyzylkum Desert and Taklimakan Desert. Soil wind erosion varies under different plant functional types. By the late 21st century, the soil wind erosion modulus in grassland, irrigated cropland and rainfed cropland will increase by 62 t/km2/a (RCP4.5) to 412 t/km2/a (RCP8.5), 27 t/km2/a (RCP4.5) to 88 t/km2/a (RCP8.5) and 141 t/km2/a (RCP4.5) to 237 t/km2/a (RCP8.5), respectively. Our study indicates high risks of soil wind erosion in northwestern CA, and ecological engineering measures such as nature based solutions including ecological barriers should be developed to prevent soil loss in central and western Kazakhstan, where future warming will bring severe stress.},
}
@article {pmid31904625,
year = {2020},
author = {Joshi, M and Varkey, B},
title = {Timely topical reviews on climate change, indoor air pollution, coalworkers' pneumoconiosis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.},
journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000000661},
pmid = {31904625},
issn = {1531-6971},
}
@article {pmid31904588,
year = {2020},
author = {Casadevall, A},
title = {Climate change brings the specter of new infectious diseases.},
journal = {The Journal of clinical investigation},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1172/JCI135003},
pmid = {31904588},
issn = {1558-8238},
}
@article {pmid31904587,
year = {2020},
author = {Ahima, RS},
title = {Global warming threatens human thermoregulation and survival.},
journal = {The Journal of clinical investigation},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1172/JCI135006},
pmid = {31904587},
issn = {1558-8238},
}
@article {pmid31904584,
year = {2020},
author = {Dietz, WH},
title = {Climate change and malnutrition: we need to act now.},
journal = {The Journal of clinical investigation},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1172/JCI135004},
pmid = {31904584},
issn = {1558-8238},
}
@article {pmid31902445,
year = {2020},
author = {Graham, H and de Bell, S and Hanley, N and Jarvis, S and White, PCL},
title = {Re: Letter to the Editor of Public Health in response to 'Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey'.},
journal = {Public health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2019.11.004},
pmid = {31902445},
issn = {1476-5616},
}
@article {pmid31902079,
year = {2020},
author = {Zhang, W and Li, Y and Li, Z and Wei, X and Ren, T and Liu, J and Zhu, Y},
title = {Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07238-9},
pmid = {31902079},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {19XNB017//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 19XNB017//Research Funds of Renmin University of China/ ; },
abstract = {Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures in the twenty-first century and is likely to intensify population exposure to heat during the warm season and, as a result, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. While earlier studies of heat exposure and related health impacts generally focused on the acute effects of short-term exposure indicated by high daily temperature or several days of very hot weather, recent research has suggested that small changes in seasonal average temperature over a long period of time is likely to pose significant health risk as well. Using downscaled climate projections under three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios, high-spatial-resolution population data, and the latest population projections by the United Nations, we aim at projecting future changes in long-term population exposure to summer heat across China in the mid- and late-twenty-first century resulting from global climate change. As the impacts of population growth are often overlooked in projecting future changes in heat exposure, we estimated changes in population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter over two future 20-year time periods and compared them with changes in temperature only. Our analysis shows that, nationally, population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter is projected to increase by 2.2 °C relative to the current situation in the 2050s and by 2.5 °C in the 2070s, as the result of climate change and population growth. Despite the foreseeable population stabilization in China, changes in population-weighted temperature are projected to be higher than changes in temperature itself for the majority of the 33 provinces (ranging from 0.02 °C to 1.27 °C, or 1% to 126% higher in the 2050s and from 0.02 °C to 1.16 °C, or 1% to 73% higher in the 2070s), with the largest differences mainly occurring in Western China. The impact of urbanization is projected to be relatively insignificant. Our findings provide evidence of possible underestimation of future changes in long-term exposure to summer heat if the effect of population growth is not factored in.},
}
@article {pmid31900770,
year = {2020},
author = {Yu, TK and Lavallee, JP and Di Giusto, B and Chang, IC and Yu, TY},
title = {Risk perception and response toward climate change for higher education students in Taiwan.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07450-7},
pmid = {31900770},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {The effects of climate change have already begun to threaten biological diversity and human societies, and these effects will continue to grow over time. To face the challenges related to mitigation and adaptation will require an educated and motivated citizenry. From the perspective of green education, providing knowledge related to climate change and promoting pro-environmental behaviors is imperative. In this study, we assess current levels of knowledge, risk perception and types of pro-environmental behaviors. We administered a questionnaire to 1118 university students in Taiwan evaluating climate change knowledge (15 items), risk perception (23 items), and attitudes toward behavioral change (33 items). Factor analyses were conducted to identify the underlying latent variables for risk perception and obstacles to behavioral change, and ANOVA tests were performed to identify significant associations between three different levels of climate change knowledge and responses to the risk perception and obstacles-to-change items. We found that higher levels of knowledge significantly predicted greater perceptions of risk related to biodiversity threats and increased public costs. In terms of behavior, students with lower levels of knowledge were significantly more likely to find uncertainties related to climate change to be a greater obstacle to engaging in pro-environmental behaviors. Higher levels of knowledge clearly allow individuals to better assess the threats posed by climate change and reduces the perceived level of uncertainty related to climate change and the impact of pro-environmental behaviors. Our results suggest that Taiwan's efforts to implement climate change related information in the public schools and in the university system have been effective and that such efforts should be broadened to reach the public as a whole.},
}
@article {pmid31900668,
year = {2020},
author = {Ramachandran, RM and Roy, PS and Chakravarthi, V and Joshi, PK and Sanjay, J},
title = {Land use and climate change impacts on distribution of plant species of conservation value in Eastern Ghats, India: a simulation study.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {2},
pages = {86},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-8044-5},
pmid = {31900668},
issn = {1573-2959},
abstract = {Effective monitoring of the current status of species distributions and predicting future distributions are very important for conservation practices at the ecosystem and species levels. The human population, land use, and climate are important factors that influence the distributions of species. Even though future simulations have many uncertainties, such studies can provide a means of obtaining species distributions, range shifts, and food production and help mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, we simulate the population, land use/land cover and species distributions in the Eastern Ghats, India. A MaxEnt species distribution model was used to simulate the potential habitats of a group of endemic (28 species found in this region) and rare, endangered, and threatened (RET) (22 species found in this region) plant species on the basis of IPCC AR5 scenarios developed for 2050 and 2070. Simulations of populations in 2050 indicate that they will increase at a rate of 1.12% relative to the base year, 2011. These increases in population create a demand for more land for settlement and food productions. Land use land cover (LULC) simulations show an increase in built-up land from 3665.00 km2 in 2015 to 3989.56 km2 by 2050. There is a minor increase of 0.04% in the area under agriculture in 2050 compared with 2015. On the other hand, the habitat simulations show that the combined effects of climate and land use change have a greater influence on the decline of potential distributions of species. Climate change and the prevailing rate of LULC change will reduce the extents of the habitats of endemic and RET species (~ 60% and ~ 40%, respectively). The Eastern Ghats have become extensively fragmented due to human activities and have become a hotspot of endemic and RET species loss. Climate and LULC change will enhance the species loss and ecosystem services.},
}
@article {pmid31896210,
year = {2020},
author = {Tegegne, G and Melesse, AM and Worqlul, AW},
title = {Development of multi-model ensemble approach for enhanced assessment of impacts of climate change on climate extremes.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {704},
number = {},
pages = {135357},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135357},
pmid = {31896210},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The severity and frequency of climate extremes will change in the future owing to global warming. This can severely impact the natural environment. Therefore, it is common practice to project climate extremes with a global climate model (GCM) in order to quantify and manage the associated risks. Several studies have demonstrated that a multi-model ensemble approach increases the reliability of predictions by exploiting the strengths and discounting the weaknesses of each climate simulator. However, the available multi-model averaging approaches exhibit significant drawbacks as they are not capable of extracting different climate extreme characteristics from the climate models. This study proposes a new approach that combines multiple models for projecting climate extremes by accounting for different extreme indices in the climate model performance weighting scheme. The capability of this method was evaluated with respect to reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Taylor diagram-based GCM skill approaches for reproducing wet and dry precipitation events. The proposed multi-model averaging approach outperformed the available approaches in reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 5% and 54% in the wet and dry precipitation conditions, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that incorporating the different precipitation extremes in a multi-model combination approach could enhance the assessment of climate change impacts on the climate extremes. The climate change impacts on the extreme events, based on the proposed multi-model ensembles, is thus assessed using the standardized precipitation indexes of 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month durations. In general, the results exhibited that the frequency of wet events increases, whereas that of drought events decreases.},
}
@article {pmid31892174,
year = {2019},
author = {Springer, RA and Elliott, SJ},
title = {&quot;There's Not Really Much Consideration Given to the Effect of the Climate on NCDs&quot;-Exploration of Knowledge and Attitudes of Health Professionals on a Climate Change-NCD Connection in Barbados.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {1},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17010198},
pmid = {31892174},
issn = {1660-4601},
abstract = {Despite widespread awareness of the rise of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the growing threat of climate change, little research has explored future health outcomes that will occur at the intersection of these challenges. Ten Barbadian health professionals were interviewed to assess their knowledge of health risks of climate change as it relates to NCDs in Barbados as a case study of a small island state at risk. There is widespread concern among health professionals about the current and future prevalence of non-communicable diseases among Barbadians. There is less concern about the future burden of NCDs in the context of a changing climate, largely because of a lack of knowledge among the majority of the health experts interviewed. Those knowledgeable about potential connections noted the difficulty that climate change would pose to the prevention and management of NCDs, given the impacts of climate stressors to food security, the built environment, and physiological and psychosocial health impacts. Lack of awareness among health professionals of the risk climate change poses to NCD prevalence and impact is reflective of the country's health priorities that fail to recognize the risk of climate change. We recommend efforts to disseminate information about climate change to stakeholders in the health sector to increase awareness.},
}
@article {pmid31890976,
year = {2019},
author = {Asare-Nuamah, P and Botchway, E},
title = {Comparing smallholder farmers' climate change perception with climate data: the case of Adansi North District of Ghana.},
journal = {Heliyon},
volume = {5},
number = {12},
pages = {e03065},
doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03065},
pmid = {31890976},
issn = {2405-8440},
abstract = {This study adopted mixed methods design and employed questionnaire and interview to investigate climate trends and smallholder farmers' perception of climate change as well as the relationship between climate data and farmers' perception, and the determinants of perception in Adansi North District of Ghana. The study randomly and purposively selected 378 respondents and 41 key informants, respectively. Descriptive, inferential, trend and thematic analysis were employed. Results showed that the majority of smallholder farmers have observed increase in intensity (96.8%) and duration (94.7%) of temperature, and delay onset (82.8%) and early cessation (89.2%) of rainfall as well as increase in wind intensity (79.4%). Climate data also revealed rising trends of rainfall, wind speed and temperature. Nevertheless, there was no significant relationship between farmers' perception and climate data. Information from family and friends and government, particularly local institutions and extension service significantly influence farmers' perception. In addition, television and radio were significant predictors of farmers' perception. The study recommends intensification of climate education, mass awareness and capacity development programmes.},
}
@article {pmid31890910,
year = {2019},
author = {Hassan, FU and Nawaz, A and Rehman, MS and Ali, MA and Dilshad, SMR and Yang, C},
title = {Prospects of HSP70 as a genetic marker for thermo-tolerance and immuno-modulation in animals under climate change scenario.},
journal = {Animal nutrition (Zhongguo xu mu shou yi xue hui)},
volume = {5},
number = {4},
pages = {340-350},
doi = {10.1016/j.aninu.2019.06.005},
pmid = {31890910},
issn = {2405-6383},
abstract = {Heat stress induced by long periods of high ambient temperature decreases animal productivity, leading to heavy economic losses. This devastating situation for livestock production is even becoming worse under the present climate change scenario. Strategies focused to breed animals with better thermo-tolerance and climatic resilience are keenly sought these days to mitigate impacts of heat stress especially in high input livestock production systems. The 70-kDa heat shock proteins (HSP70) are a protein family known for its potential role in thermo-tolerance and widely considered as cellular thermometers. HSP70 function as molecular chaperons and have major roles in cellular thermotolerance, apoptosis, immune-modulation and heat stress. Expression of HSP70 is controlled by various factors such as, intracellular pH, cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cyclic AMP), protein kinase C and intracellular free calcium, etc. Over expression of HSP70 has been observed under oxidative stress leading to scavenging of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species and protection of pulmonary endothelial barrier against bacterial toxins. Polymorphisms in flanking and promoter regions in HSP70 gene have shown association with heat tolerance, weaning weight, milk production, fertility and disease susceptibility in livestock. This review provides insight into pivotal roles of HSP70 which make it an ideal candidate genetic marker for selection of animals with better climate resilience, immune response and superior performance.},
}
@article {pmid31889271,
year = {2019},
author = {Chandio, AA and Magsi, H and Ozturk, I},
title = {Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07486-9},
pmid = {31889271},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {The current empirical study explores the linkage between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, average temperature, cultivated area, consumption of fertilizer, and rice production in Pakistan. For this research, the annual time series data from 1968 to 2014 were used to enhance the validity of the empirical outcomes. The cointegration analysis with the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to explore the effects of climate change on rice production. Additionally, the estimated long-run outcomes are verified by employing fully modified ordinary least squared (FMOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) approaches. The empirical outcomes revealed that the selected important study variables are cointegrated demonstrating the existence of long-run linkages among them. The main fruitful outcomes of this study are that rice production in Pakistan is positively affected by the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in both long-run and short-run.},
}
@article {pmid31889158,
year = {2019},
author = {Shukla, R and Agarwal, A and Gornott, C and Sachdeva, K and Joshi, PK},
title = {Farmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {20375},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-56931-9},
pmid = {31889158},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {Smallholder farmers' responses to the climate-induced agricultural changes are not uniform but rather diverse, as response adaptation strategies are embedded in the heterogonous agronomic, social, economic, and institutional conditions. There is an urgent need to understand the diversity within the farming households, identify the main drivers and understand its relationship with household adaptation strategies. Typology construction provides an efficient method to understand farmer diversity by delineating groups with common characteristics. In the present study, based in the Uttarakhand state of Indian Western Himalayas, five farmer types were identified on the basis of resource endowment and agriculture orientation characteristics. Factor analysis followed by sequential agglomerative hierarchial and K-means clustering was use to delineate farmer types. Examination of adaptation strategies across the identified farmer types revealed that mostly contrasting and type-specific bundle of strategies are adopted by farmers to ensure livelihood security. Our findings show that strategies that incurred high investment, such as infrastructural development, are limited to high resource-endowed farmers. In contrast, the low resourced farmers reported being progressively disengaging with farming as a livelihood option. Our results suggest that the proponents of effective adaptation policies in the Himalayan region need to be cognizant of the nuances within the farming communities to capture the diverse and multiple adaptation needs and constraints of the farming households.},
}
@article {pmid31888648,
year = {2019},
author = {Chhetri, BK and Galanis, E and Sobie, S and Brubacher, J and Balshaw, R and Otterstatter, M and Mak, S and Lem, M and Lysyshyn, M and Murdock, T and Fleury, M and Zickfeld, K and Zubel, M and Clarkson, L and Takaro, TK},
title = {Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.},
journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source},
volume = {18},
number = {1},
pages = {116},
doi = {10.1186/s12940-019-0550-y},
pmid = {31888648},
issn = {1476-069X},
support = {NA//Public Health Agency of Canada/ ; },
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation.<br><br>METHODS: Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s.<br><br>RESULTS: Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models.<br><br>DISCUSSION: If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.},
}
@article {pmid31887979,
year = {2019},
author = {Adekiya, TA and Aruleba, RT and Oyinloye, BE and Okosun, KO and Kappo, AP},
title = {The Effect of Climate Change and the Snail-Schistosome Cycle in Transmission and Bio-Control of Schistosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {1},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17010181},
pmid = {31887979},
issn = {1660-4601},
abstract = {In the next century, global warming, due to changes in climatic factors, is expected to have an enormous influence on the interactions between pathogens and their hosts. Over the years, the rate at which vector-borne diseases and their transmission dynamics modify and develop has been shown to be highly dependent to a certain extent on changes in temperature and geographical distribution. Schistosomiasis has been recognized as a tropical and neglected vector-borne disease whose rate of infection has been predicted to be elevated worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa; the region currently with the highest proportion of people at risk, due to changes in climate. This review not only suggests the need to develop an efficient and effective model that will predict Schistosoma spp. population dynamics but seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of several current control strategies. The design of a framework model to predict and accommodate the future incidence of schistosomiasis in human population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is proposed. The impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission as well as the distribution of several freshwater snails responsible for the transmission of Schistosoma parasites in the region is also reviewed. Lastly, this article advocates for modelling several control mechanisms for schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa so as to tackle the re-infection of the disease, even after treating infected people with praziquantel, the first-line treatment drug for schistosomiasis.},
}
@article {pmid31887529,
year = {2019},
author = {Miller, CB and Parsons, MB and Jamieson, HE and Ardakani, OH and Gregory, BRB and Galloway, JM},
title = {Influence of late-Holocene climate change on the solid-phase speciation and long-term stability of arsenic in sub-Arctic lake sediments.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {709},
number = {},
pages = {136115},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136115},
pmid = {31887529},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Sediment cores were collected from two lakes in the Courageous Lake Greenstone Belt (CLGB), central Northwest Territories, Canada, to examine the influence of late-Holocene warming on the transport and fate of arsenic (As) in sub-Arctic lakes. In both lakes, allochthonous As-bearing minerals (i.e. arsenopyrite and scorodite) were identified in sediment deposited during times of both regional warming and cooling, suggesting that weathering of bedrock and derived surficial materials provides a continual source of As to lakes of the CLGB. However, maximum porewater As (84 μg·L-1 and 15 μg·L-1) and reactive organic matter (OM; aquatic and terrestrial-derived) concentrations in each lake are coincident with known periods of regional climate warming. It is inferred that increased biological production in surface waters and influx of terrigenous OM led to the release of sedimentary As to porewater through reductive dissolution of As-bearing Fe-(oxy)hydroxides and scorodite during episodes of regional warming. Elevated sedimentary As concentrations (median: 36 mg·kg-1; range: 29 to 49 mg·kg-1) are observed in sediment coeval with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 5430 ± 110 to 4070 ± 130 cal. years BP); at these depths, authigenic As-bearing framboidal pyrite is the primary host of As in sediment and the influence of organic matter on the precipitation of As-bearing framboidal pyrite is apparent petrographically. These findings suggest that increased biological productivity and weathering of terrestrial OM associated with climate warming influences redox cycles in the near-surface sediment and enhances the mobility of As in northern lakes. Knowledge generated from this study is relevant for predicting future climate change-driven variations in metal(loid) cycling in aquatic systems and can be used to interpret trends in long-term environmental monitoring data at historical, modern, and future metal mines in northern environments.},
}
@article {pmid31887505,
year = {2019},
author = {Zheng, J and Wang, W and Ding, Y and Liu, G and Xing, W and Cao, X and Chen, D},
title = {Assessment of climate change impact on the water footprint in rice production: Historical simulation and future projections at two representative rice cropping sites of China.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {709},
number = {},
pages = {136190},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136190},
pmid = {31887505},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {As one of the most important crops cultivated in China, rice contributes to approximately 28% of total yield. In despite of the substantial production, rice productivity is gravely affected by ongoing climate change and reduction of available water resources. Thus, assessing the responses of rice water consumption and productivity to more pronounced climate change is of great significance to water resources management in terms of relieving the resources shortage and meeting the food demand. In this study, the yield and water resources utilization during 1961-2010 in two typical rice plantation regions of China were evaluated using validated rice model ORYZA2000. Subsequently, their responses to future climate scenarios of 21 century were investigated through driving ORYZA2000 with downscaling climatic projections from GCMs under four RCPs emission scenarios. To quantify the water resources utilization in rice production from multiple perspectives, the water footprint (WF) and three water productivity indices (WPI, WPU and WPET) were integrated for assessing the regional agricultural water stress in this paper. The results revealed that the annual average linear inclining rates of WF in two stations (Kaifeng and Kunshan) were 3.86 m3/ t and 2.62 m3/ t, respectively. Moreover, compared with the green water footprint (WFg), the blue water footprint (WFb) is projected to significantly increase in future. The water productivity (WP) would decrease in two stations under four RCPs scenarios except that the WPu and WPET of Kunshan under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Hence, this study provides insights into comprehensively understand the influences of climate change on food security and sheds lights on the regional strategy for future water resource management.},
}
@article {pmid31883492,
year = {2019},
author = {Venâncio, C and Ribeiro, R and Lopes, I},
title = {Active emigration from climate change-caused seawater intrusion into freshwater habitats.},
journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)},
volume = {258},
number = {},
pages = {113805},
doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113805},
pmid = {31883492},
issn = {1873-6424},
abstract = {Ecological risk assessment associated with seawater intrusions has been supported on the determination of lethal/sublethal effects following standard protocols that force exposure neglecting the ability of mobile organisms to spatially avoid salinized environments. Thus, this work aimed at assessing active emigration from climate change-caused seawater intrusion into freshwater habitats. To specific objectives were delineated: first, to compute median 12-h avoidance conductivities (AC50,12h) for freshwater species, and second, to compare it with literature data (LC50,48 or 96h, EC50,6 or 21d) to assess the relevance of the inclusion of stressor-driven emigration into risk assessment frameworks. Four standard test species, representing a broad range of ecological niches - Daphnia magna, Heterocypris incongruens, Danio rerio and Xenopus laevis - were selected. The salt NaCl was used as a surrogate of natural seawater to create the saline gradient, which was established in a 7-compartment system. At each specific LC50, 48 or 96h, the proportion of avoiders were well above 50%, ranging from 71 to 94%. At each LC50, considering also avoiders, populations would decline by 85-97%. Furthermore, for D. magna and X. laevis it was noticed that at the lowest conductivities eliciting mortality, the avoidance already exceeded 50%. The results showed that the emigration from salinity-disturbed habitats exists and that can even be more sensitive than standard endpoints. Looking solely to standard endpoints involving forced exposure may greatly underestimate the risk of local population extinction, because habitat function can be severely disrupted, with subsequent stressor-driven emigration, before any adverse physiological effects at the organism level. Thus, the present study highlights the need to include non-forced exposure testing into ecological risk assessment, namely of salinity-menaced costal freshwaters.},
}
@article {pmid31883296,
year = {2019},
author = {Tørresen, KS and Fykse, H and Rafoss, T and Gerowitt, B},
title = {Autumn growth of three perennial weeds at high latitude benefits from climate change.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14976},
pmid = {31883296},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {In autumn, agricultural perennial weeds prepare for winter and can store reserves into creeping roots or rhizomes. Little is known about influence of climate change in this period. We tested the effect of simulated climate change in autumn on three widespread and noxious perennial weeds, Elymus repens (L.) Gould, Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. and Sonchus arvensis L. We divided and combined simulated climate change components into elevated CO2 concentration (525 ppm), elevated temperatures (+2-2.5°C), treatments in open top chambers. In addition a control in the open top chamber without any increase in CO2 and temperature, and a field control outside the chambers were included. Two geographically different origins and three pre-growth periods prior to the exposure to climate change factors were included for each species. All species increased leaf area under elevated temperature, close to doubling in E. repens and quadrupling in the dicot species. E. repens kept leaves green later in autumn. C. arvense did not benefit in below-ground growth from more leaf area or leaf dry mass. S. arvensis had low levels of leaf area throughout the experiment and withered earlier than the two other species. Below-ground plant parts of S. arvensis were significantly increased by elevated temperature. Except for root:shoot ratio of C. arvense, the effects of pure elevated CO2 were not significant for any variables compared to the open top chamber control. There was an additive, but no synergistic, effect of enhanced temperature and CO2 . The length of pre-growth period was highly important for autumn plant growth, while origin had minor effect. We conclude that the small transfer of enhanced above-ground growth into below-ground growth under climate change in autumn does not favour creeping perennial plants per se, but more leaf area may offer more plant biomass to be tackled by chemical or physical weed control.},
}
@article {pmid31883031,
year = {2019},
author = {Vulturius, G and André, K and Swartling, ÅG and Brown, C and Rounsevell, M},
title = {Does Climate Change Communication Matter for Individual Engagement with Adaptation? Insights from Forest Owners in Sweden.},
journal = {Environmental management},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01247-7},
pmid = {31883031},
issn = {1432-1009},
abstract = {Natural resource managers urgently need to adapt to climate change, and extension services are increasingly using targeted communication campaigns to promote individual engagement with adaptation. This study compares two groups of Swedish forest owners: 1493 who participated in two climate communication projects by the Swedish Forest Agency, and 909 who were randomly sampled. The study finds statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of climate change awareness and concern, belief in the urgency to act and intentions to take adaptive measures. Results suggest that the primary effect of the climate chance communication seems to have been on forest owners' subjective risk perceptions and beliefs in their knowledge and ability, which make it more likely that individuals will take adaptive action in the future. The study also finds that experience with extreme events affects people's intentions to take adaptive measures independently from their beliefs that these extremes were caused by climate change. Furthermore, findings also highlight the need for communication research and practice to recognise the impeding role social norms and economic rationales can play for individual adaptation. Future research should make use of longitudinal and qualitative research to assess the effect of deliberation- and solution-orientated communication on people's intentions and actions to adapt to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid31882203,
year = {2019},
author = {Mattiuzzi, C and Lippi, G},
title = {RE: 'Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey'.},
journal = {Public health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2019.11.005},
pmid = {31882203},
issn = {1476-5616},
}
@article {pmid31880048,
year = {2019},
author = {Walker, J},
title = {Rural health inequities and the impact of climate change.},
journal = {The Australian journal of rural health},
volume = {27},
number = {6},
pages = {583-584},
doi = {10.1111/ajr.12595},
pmid = {31880048},
issn = {1440-1584},
}
@article {pmid31879303,
year = {2020},
author = {Mikolasch, TA and Stadler, CI},
title = {Our prescription for climate change: reduce and recycle inhalers!.},
journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners},
volume = {70},
number = {690},
pages = {30},
doi = {10.3399/bjgp20X707717},
pmid = {31879303},
issn = {1478-5242},
}
@article {pmid31879293,
year = {2020},
author = {Adelson, ND},
title = {Mitigating climate change: using the physician's tool of the trade.},
journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners},
volume = {70},
number = {690},
pages = {12-13},
doi = {10.3399/bjgp20X707321},
pmid = {31879293},
issn = {1478-5242},
}
@article {pmid31877669,
year = {2019},
author = {He, R and Jin, J and Kuang, F and Zhang, C and Guan, T},
title = {Farmers' Risk Cognition, Risk Preferences and Climate Change Adaptive Behavior: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {17},
number = {1},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph17010085},
pmid = {31877669},
issn = {1660-4601},
support = {41671170//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; },
abstract = {Improving local farmers' climate change adaptive capacity is an important policy issue in rural China. This study investigates farmers' risk cognition, risk preferences and climate change adaptive behavior. Based on unique data from a survey and a paired lottery experiment completed by 240 rural farmers in Chongqing City of China, this paper finds that farmers have a pessimistic risk cognition towards climate change and the typical farmers are risk-averse and loss-averse. Risk cognition and adaptation cognition have significantly positive influences on climate change adaptive behavior, and loss aversion has a significantly positive influence on farmers' adaptation decisions. Loss aversion exerts a positive impact on risk cognition and adaptation cognition, and risk aversion has a positive impact on adaptation cognition. This paper contributes to the emerging literature that relates risk preference in experiments and risk cognition to farmers' climate change adaptive behavior.},
}
@article {pmid31871669,
year = {2019},
author = {Xiao, J and Eziz, A and Zhang, H and Wang, Z and Tang, Z and Fang, J},
title = {Responses of four dominant dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin, northwest China.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {9},
number = {23},
pages = {13596-13607},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.5817},
pmid = {31871669},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Aim: Dryland ecosystems are exceedingly sensitive to climate change. Desertification induced by both climate changes and human activities seriously threatens dryland vegetation. However, the impact of climate change on distribution of dryland plant species has not been well documented. Here, we studied the potential distribution of four representative dryland plant species (Haloxylon ammodendron, Anabasis aphylla, Calligonum mongolicum, and Populus euphratica) under current and future climate scenarios in a temperate desert region, aiming to improve our understanding of the responses of dryland plant species to climate change and provide guidance for dryland conservation and afforestation.<br><br>Location: Junggar Basin, a large desert region in northwestern China.<br><br>Methods: Occurrence data of the studied species were collected from an extensive field investigation of 2,516 sampling sites in the Junggar Basin. Ensemble species distribution models using 10 algorithms were developed and used to predict the potential distribution of each studied species under current and future climate scenarios.<br><br>Result: Haloxylon ammodendron and A. aphylla were likely to lose most of their current suitable habitats under future climate scenarios, while C. mongolicum and P. euphratica were likely to expand their ranges or remain relatively stationary. Variable importance evaluation showed that the most important climate variables influencing species distribution differed across the studied species. These results may be explained by the different ecophysiological characteristics and adaptation strategies to the environment of the four studied species.<br><br>Main conclusions: We explored the responses of the representative dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin in northwestern China. The different changes in suitability of different species imply that policymakers may need to reconsider the selection and combination of the afforestation species used in this area. This study can provide valuable reference for the management and conservation of dryland ecosystems under future climate change scenarios.},
}
@article {pmid31869620,
year = {2019},
author = {Sun, C and Liu, Y and Song, H and Li, Q and Cai, Q and Wang, L and Fang, C and Liu, R},
title = {Tree-ring evidence of the impacts of climate change and agricultural cultivation on vegetation coverage in the upper reaches of the Weihe River, northwest China.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {707},
number = {},
pages = {136160},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136160},
pmid = {31869620},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Comprehending the characteristics and causes of vegetation coverage in history is of practical significance for studying ecological and environmental changes. As a typical region of the semi-arid and semi-humid climatic zone in northwest China, the upper reaches of the Weihe River have relatively fragile ecological environment. Based on tree-ring width chronologies, the vegetation coverage represented by the normalized difference vegetation index was reconstructed from 1630 to 2006 using a regression model. There were 64 years with high vegetation coverage and 56 years with low vegetation coverage over the past 377 years. At low frequencies, the coverage was relatively higher in the 1650s and from the 1880s to 1890s, while the coverage was lower in the 1720s and from the 1760s to 1770s. While precipitation and temperature had positive and negative influences on the changes of vegetation coverage, respectively, during the past several centuries, the agricultural cultivation played an important role on coverage changes. Along with the land reclamation expansion in history, the forest cover gradually declined, and vegetation coverage decreased. The vegetation coverage was lower when there were more arable lands reclaimed from woodlands. Regardless of the land reclamation policy during the historical period or the current conversion project of cropland to forest, they affected the vegetation coverage by influencing cover ranges of woodland and farmland.},
}
@article {pmid31869607,
year = {2019},
author = {Mazorra, J and Sánchez-Jacob, E and de la Sota, C and Fernández, L and Lumbreras, J},
title = {A comprehensive analysis of cooking solutions co-benefits at household level: Healthy lives and well-being, gender and climate change.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {707},
number = {},
pages = {135968},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135968},
pmid = {31869607},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Three billion people (>40% of the world's population) lack access to clean cooking solutions, including 2.5 billion people that still rely on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. In urban contexts, the rate of access to clean cooking solutions is normally higher than in rural contexts due to greater availability of these solutions. The relevance of providing access to clean cooking solutions (SDG 7) is linked to several associated co-benefits that contribute to a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, this paper shows a comprehensive analysis of multiple co-benefits of a clean cooking solution intervention. Health (SDG 3), gender (SDG 5) and climate change (SDG 13) co-benefits were analysed and compared through a cost-benefit analysis using a comprehensive approach in a case study in the Casamance Natural Subregion, located in Western Africa. The most important co-benefits were related to gender (SDG 5), representing 60-97% of the total economic benefits. Climate change co-benefits (SDG 13) were also relevant, representing 3-40% of the total economic benefits. Health co-benefits (SDG 3) were very limited for this case study, representing <1% of the total economic benefits. Considering these results, implications for urban settings were discussed in the light of the &quot;making the available clean&quot; or &quot;making the clean available&quot; strategies.},
}
@article {pmid31868596,
year = {2019},
author = {Cole, J and Desphande, J},
title = {Poultry farming, climate change, and drivers of antimicrobial resistance in India.},
journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health},
volume = {3},
number = {12},
pages = {e494-e495},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30236-0},
pmid = {31868596},
issn = {2542-5196},
}
@article {pmid31865588,
year = {2019},
author = {Zyoud, SH and Fuchs-Hanusch, D},
title = {Mapping of climate change research in the Arab world: a bibliometric analysis.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07100-y},
pmid = {31865588},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {The attendant threats of climate change in the Arab world are accelerating at a high pace. The realization of these risks has promoted scientific research activities in climate change (i.e., modeling of climate change effects and development of mitigation and adaptation measures). A bibliometric analysis was desired to trace the status and trends of these research activities with an origin from the Arab world. The aim was to contribute to a better understanding of the scientific knowledge of climate change and its impacts and survey its evolution. Moreover, it is aimed at enabling recommendations for future research activities in this field. The data of this analysis were retrieved from the Scopus database using the most common terms of climate change to search titles, abstracts, and keywords. The collected data, in the form of documents referring to climate change, enabled to extract and further assess different quantitative and qualitative bibliometric indicators. Productivity of countries, sources, and institutions; collaboration figures; impact of published research; and citation rates were being among the assessed indicators. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using visualization maps and clustering techniques to characterize the hot spots and vital topics of research. A total of 2074 documents (1.2% of the total global research output) were retrieved from the Arab world. Saudi Arabia took the leading positions in terms of the number of publications (473 documents; 22.8%), impact of research (Hirsch index (h-index), 48), collected citations (10,573 citations), and number of documents from collaboration (389 documents). The USA was the most collaborated country with the Arab world (344 documents; 17.0%), followed by France (311 documents; 15.0%). The most productive journal was Plos One (42 documents; 2.0%), followed by the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (38 documents; 1.8%). Three institutions from Saudi Arabia were in the forefront in terms of research productivity (King Abdulaziz University, 124 documents; King Saud University, 117 documents; and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 102 documents). The vital climate change-related topics which will continue to be active in the future are climate modeling, physiology, genetics, and animals. The present data indicate a committed scientific research progress. Increasing the fund, capacity building, and development of regional experience with climate change-related disasters are key factors to promote the scientific research in this field.},
}
@article {pmid31864007,
year = {2019},
author = {López, MS and Santi, MF and Müller, GV and Gómez, AA and Staffolani, C and Pomares, LA},
title = {Climate change communication by the local digital press in northeastern Argentina: An ethical analysis.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {707},
number = {},
pages = {135737},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135737},
pmid = {31864007},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {News articles about Climate Change (CC) represent the level of knowledge of the phenomenon by journalists and the public, as well as the value assigned to problems of ethical and transgenerational nature in a given society. Digital articles related to CC released by media from northeast Argentina were reviewed to study how the local digital press addresses the CC in this region as well as the social representation of the news. An analysis of the content of news articles released in the period January 2016-March 2018 was carried out to identify components that explain their social representation. This study shows that local digital media publish articles about regionally important topics. However, news about CC appear mainly when hydroclimatic events occur. Many of the digital media that release CC information are connected to important social sectors in the region, such as agriculture and economics. A difference between national and local media is that the first ones focus on international events while the latter show the regional reality. Our results also show that no exchange or reciprocity mechanism exists among CC stakeholders, such as journalists, academics and decision-makers. Consequently, building new ways to communicate CC remains a challenge. The media together with scientists, and policy-makers, have a fundamental role in showing the ethical value and importance of caring for Nature and our environment, so to leave the best possible world for future generations.},
}
@article {pmid31863165,
year = {2019},
author = {Dantas, BF and Moura, MSB and Pelacani, CR and Angelotti, F and Taura, TA and Oliveira, GM and Bispo, JS and Matias, JR and Silva, FFS and Pritchard, HW and Seal, CE},
title = {Rainfall, not soil temperature, will limit the seed germination of dry forest species with climate change.},
journal = {Oecologia},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00442-019-04575-x},
pmid = {31863165},
issn = {1432-1939},
support = {MP3 03.12.12.004.00//Embrapa/ ; Edital 15/2014 Proposta 171//CAPES/ ; },
abstract = {Drylands are predicted to become more arid and saline due to increasing global temperature and drought. Although species from the Caatinga, a Brazilian tropical dry forest, are tolerant to these conditions, the capacity for germination to withstand extreme soil temperature and water deficit associated with climate change remains to be quantified. We aimed to evaluate how germination will be affected under future climate change scenarios of limited water and increased temperature. Seeds of three species were germinated at different temperatures and osmotic potentials. Thermal time and hydrotime model parameters were established and thresholds for germination calculated. Germination performance in 2055 was predicted, by combining temperature and osmotic/salt stress thresholds, considering soil temperature and moisture following rainfall events. The most pessimistic climate scenario predicts an increase of 3.9 °C in soil temperature and 30% decrease in rainfall. Under this scenario, soil temperature is never lower than the minimum and seldomly higher than maximum temperature thresholds for germination. As long as the soil moisture (0.139 cm3 cm3) requirements are met, germination can be achieved in 1 day. According to the base water potential and soil characteristics, the minimum weekly rainfall for germination is estimated to be 17.5 mm. Currently, the required minimum rainfall occurs in 14 weeks of the year but will be reduced to 4 weeks by 2055. This may not be sufficient for seedling recruitment of some species in the natural environment. Thus, in future climate scenarios, rainfall rather than temperature will be extremely limiting for seed germination.},
}
@article {pmid31862602,
year = {2019},
author = {Mathew, MJ and Sautter, B and Ariffin, EH and Menier, D and Ramkumar, M and Siddiqui, NA and Delanoe, H and Del Estal, N and Traoré, K and Gensac, E},
title = {Total vulnerability of the littoral zone to climate change-driven natural hazards in north Brittany, France.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {706},
number = {},
pages = {135963},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135963},
pmid = {31862602},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Current worldwide projections of sea-level rise show a staggering increase in water level of up to 2 m by 2100 owing to global warming exacerbated by anthropogenically induced climate change. While amplified rates of sea-level rise is an immense hazard to coastal communities, storm surges are expected to increase in intensity and frequency making it an equally significant threat to coastal populations. In France, these hazards are not uncommon with records of extreme tempests every thousand years in the Holocene. Despite these recurring devastating events, in the Bay of Saint-Brieuc, Brittany, legislated laws for coastal management do not entirely focus on protecting littoral zones from such calamities. 130,739 people are concentrated in 21 municipalities with major cities located at close proximity to the shoreline with numerous socio-economic activities, which increases the vulnerability of the coastal population and infrastructures; thus, affirming the indispensable need of a thorough vulnerability assessment. Here, we conduct a mechanistic appraisal of the vulnerability of the bay considering thirteen parameters within three governing sub-systems that demonstrate the multidimensional dynamics in these municipalities. In the occasion of an extreme climatic event, our results of total vulnerability show risks in the sub-systems highlighting erosional processes due to augmented hydrodynamics, socio-economic and administrative vulnerabilities associated with anthropogenic development. Eight municipalities of the bay portray moderate to very high vulnerability and the remaining exhibits a lower risk; however, not devoid of high vulnerabilities for certain sub-systems. We posit that a more accurate fit for predicting the total vulnerability of the region can be achieved by exclusively integrating physical-natural and administrative sub-system vulnerabilities. We propose generic but requisite recommendations for Integrated Coastal Zone Management such as surveillance of urban development along the coast, implementation of coastal defense systems and appropriate industrial corridors to attenuate and dispose hazardous refuse.},
}
@article {pmid31862545,
year = {2019},
author = {Kanazawa, S},
title = {Does global warming contribute to the obesity epidemic?.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {182},
number = {},
pages = {108962},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108962},
pmid = {31862545},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {Endotherms must expend more energy to digest colder food, so they acquire more calories by eating food at a higher temperature than eating the identical food cold. A recent study shows that ownership of a microwave is associated with a small increase in BMI and obesity. The same logic applies to other substances that endotherms introduce into their bodies, like air. An analysis of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) shows that, net of sex, age, race, education, earnings, neighborhood characteristics, and exercise activities, atmospheric temperature is associated with small but statistically significant increases in BMI, weight, overweight, and obesity. Atmospheric temperature is more strongly associated than most exercise activities, and as strongly associated as age and population density. An average American might reduce weight by 15.1 lbs, BMI by 2.52 (half the difference between normal weight and obesity), and the odds of obesity by 54% by moving from Phoenix, AZ, to Barrow, AK, or, less dramatically, 5.7 lbs in weight, .95 in BMI (a fifth of the difference between normal weight and obesity), and 25% in the odds of obesity by moving mere 150 miles north to Flagstaff, AZ. Global warming under the worst-case scenario might produce an increase of 2.2 lbs in weight, .37 in BMI, and 12% in odds of obesity from 1961 to 2081.},
}
@article {pmid31862433,
year = {2019},
author = {Sun, H and He, D and Sui, X and Chen, Y},
title = {Predicting impacts of future climate change and hydropower development towards habitats of native and non-native fishes.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {707},
number = {},
pages = {135419},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135419},
pmid = {31862433},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change and hydropower development are two primary stressors affecting riverine ecosystems and both stressors facilitate invasions by non-native species. However, little study has focused on how habitats of native and non-native fishes may be affected by independent or combined impacts of such stressors. Here we used the Jinsha River as an example to predict habitat change and distributional shift of native and non-native fishes with species distribution models. The Jinsha River Basin has nearly 40 cascade dams constructed or planned and located in the Tibetan Plateau, which is sensitive to future climate change. Two climate change scenarios and future hydropower development were combined to produce five scenarios of future changes. Under the impacts of independent extreme climate change or hydropower development, non-native fishes showed greater habitat gain in total, while native fishes shifted their distribution into tributaries and higher elevations, and impacts were stronger in combined scenarios. Habitat overlap between the two groups also increased in future scenarios. Certain fish traits correlated with stressors in habitat change prediction. River basins with hydropower development were shown to face higher risk of non-native fishes invasion under future climate change. As the most biodiverse river basins globally are threatened by hydropower development, our results emphasize the importance of regulating non-native fish introduction in reservoirs. Our approaches are also applicable to other systems globally to better understand how hydropower development and climate change may increase invasion risk, and therefore help conserve native species effectively.},
}
@article {pmid31859820,
year = {2019},
author = {Ayala, S and Alvarado, S and Cáceres, D and Zulantay, I and Canals, M},
title = {[Effects of climate change on reproductive number of Chagas disease].},
journal = {Revista medica de Chile},
volume = {147},
number = {6},
pages = {683-692},
doi = {10.4067/S0034-98872019000600683},
pmid = {31859820},
issn = {0717-6163},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Reproductive number (R0)-maps estimate risk zones of vector-borne diseases and geographical distribution changes under climate change.<br><br>AIM: To map R0 aiming to estimate the epidemiological risk of Chagas disease in Chile, its distribution and possible changes due to the global climate change.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used a relationship between R0 and entomological parameters of vectors as function of environmental variables, to map the risk of Chagas disease in Chile, under current and projected future environmental conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: We obtained a geographical R0 estimation of Chagas disease in Chile. The highest R0averages correspond to the Central-Northern regions of Chile. T. cruzi transmission area could increase in the future due to climate changes. Independent of the future condition, both for optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios, the area of potential risk for Chagas disease transmission would increase. The estimated R0 values suggest that, if a control of T. infestans is not maintained, Chagas disease endemic status will persist or increase, independently of the climate change scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Mapping R0 values is an effective method to assess the risk of Chagas disease. The eventual increase in the transmission area of the disease is worrisome.},
}
@article {pmid31859534,
year = {2019},
author = {Trájer, AJ},
title = {The potential impact of climate change on the seasonality of Phlebotomus neglectus, the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in the East Mediterranean region.},
journal = {International journal of environmental health research},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {1-19},
doi = {10.1080/09603123.2019.1702150},
pmid = {31859534},
issn = {1369-1619},
abstract = {Phlebotomus neglectus is one of the most important vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe and Asia Minor. It was aimed to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality and the range of the species for 2014-2060. In the inland areas of Asia Minor, the Balkan Peninsula and the Carpathian Basin the elongation of the activity season will reach or exceed the two months in the middle of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century. The most affected regions are the middle elevations of the mountainous regions and the plains of the northern distribution areas. In some areas of the southern distribution border, the season is expected to shorten. In the Apennine Peninsula, mainly the mountainous areas could be impacted notably by climate change. The results indicate the potential spread of leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe due to the increasing environmental suitability of the region.},
}
@article {pmid31858738,
year = {2020},
author = {Swinburn, B},
title = {The Obesity and Climate Change Nexus.},
journal = {Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.)},
volume = {28},
number = {1},
pages = {8},
doi = {10.1002/oby.22708},
pmid = {31858738},
issn = {1930-739X},
}
@article {pmid31856873,
year = {2019},
author = {Misseri, G and Ippolito, M and Cortegiani, A},
title = {Global warming &quot;heating up&quot; the ICU through Candida auris infections: the climate changes theory.},
journal = {Critical care (London, England)},
volume = {23},
number = {1},
pages = {416},
doi = {10.1186/s13054-019-2702-4},
pmid = {31856873},
issn = {1466-609X},
}
@article {pmid31855485,
year = {2019},
author = {Doubleday, A and Errett, NA and Ebi, KL and Hess, JJ},
title = {Indicators to Guide and Monitor Climate Change Adaptation in the US Pacific Northwest.},
journal = {American journal of public health},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {e1-e9},
doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2019.305403},
pmid = {31855485},
issn = {1541-0048},
abstract = {Objectives. To develop a set of indicators to guide and monitor climate change adaptation in US state and local health departments.Methods. We performed a narrative review of literature on indicators of climate change adaptation and public health service capacity, mapped the findings onto activities grouped by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Ten Essential Services, and drafted potential indicators to discuss with practitioners. We then refined the indicators after key informant interviews with 17 health department officials in the US Pacific Northwest in fall 2018.Results. Informants identified a need for clarity regarding state and local public health's role in climate change adaptation, integration of adaptation into existing programs, and strengthening of communication, partnerships, and response capacity to increase resilience. We propose a set of climate change indicators applicable for state and local health departments.Conclusions. With additional context-specific refinement, the proposed indicators can aid agencies in tracking adaptation efforts. The generalizability, robustness, and relevance of the proposed indicators should be explored in other settings with a broader set of stakeholders. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print December 19, 2019: e1-e9. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2019.305403).},
}
@article {pmid31852964,
year = {2019},
author = {Il Choi, H},
title = {Assessment of Aggregation Frameworks for Composite Indicators in Measuring Flood Vulnerability to Climate Change.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {19371},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-55994-y},
pmid = {31852964},
issn = {2045-2322},
abstract = {The IPCC Third Assessment Report presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability to climate change with the three attribute components of exposure, sensitivity, and coping. Since the vulnerability assessments have been conducted mainly by the composite indicators aggregated from the IPCC's components, it is necessary to assess aggregation frameworks for constructing the composite indicators that have an influence on vulnerability assessment outcomes. This study therefore investigates the robustness of assessment outcomes for flood vulnerability to climate change through a comparative analysis of the six vulnerability indicators aggregated from the IPCC's components by the conventional aggregation frameworks. The comparative analysis has been illustrated through both the possible combinations of reference values for vulnerability attribute components and a case study on the flood vulnerability assessment to climate change for coastal areas in the Republic of Korea. The study demonstrates that there can be large fluctuations and reversals in ranking orders across the six vulnerability outcomes by different aggregation frameworks. It concludes that for flood vulnerability assessment to climate change in coastal areas, the vulnerability indicator needs to be aggregated by a multiplicative utility function from all the three assessment components with positive elasticity to vulnerability.},
}
@article {pmid31851395,
year = {2019},
author = {Rühlemann, A and Jordan, JC},
title = {Risk perception and culture: implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.},
journal = {Disasters},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/disa.12429},
pmid = {31851395},
issn = {1467-7717},
abstract = {Perceptions of climate change play a critical role in determining how at-risk people are. The significance of culture for understanding why people perceive and respond to climate change in particular ways is largely ignored in mainstream climate change adaptation. This paper applies a critical realist approach to examine the socio-cultural structures and causal mechanisms for inaction or (in)effective action between at-risk people and the organisations responsible for dealing with climate change. Findings show that there are varying context-specific sub-narratives among heterogeneous groups of people at risk and organisations that lead to inaction or (in)effective action in response to climate change, often independent of risk perceptions and with unforeseen consequences for at-risk people's vulnerabilities. Specifically, sub-narratives may create parallel and/or conflicting climate perceptions and respective responses, legitimise unequal resource distribution, and justify the suppression and/or capitalisation of sub-cultural and/or individual risk perceptions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid31851023,
year = {2019},
author = {Joshi, M and Goraya, H and Joshi, A and Bartter, T},
title = {Climate change and respiratory diseases: a 2020 perspective.},
journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000000656},
pmid = {31851023},
issn = {1531-6971},
abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To present an overview of the impact of climate change upon human respiratory health.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change involves two major types of change. First, there is overall progressive warming. Second, there is increased variability/unpredictability in weather patterns. Both types of change impact negatively upon human respiratory health. Worsening air quality and increased allergens can worsen existing disease. Climate-related changes in allergens and in vectors for infection can cause new disease. Redundant sophisticated studies have projected marked increases in respiratory morbidity and mortality throughout the world as a direct result of climate change. This article summarizes some of those studies.<br><br>SUMMARY: The clarity of our vision with respect to the dramatic impact of climate change upon human respiratory health approaches 20/20. The data represent a mandate for change. Change needs to include international, national, and individual efforts.},
}
@article {pmid31850868,
year = {2019},
author = {Mammarella, MC and Grandoni, G},
title = {Resilience actions to counteract the effects of climate change and health emergencies in cities: the role of artificial neural networks.},
journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita},
volume = {55},
number = {4},
pages = {392-397},
doi = {10.4415/ANN_19_04_14},
pmid = {31850868},
issn = {2384-8553},
abstract = {Both the World Health Organization (WHO) with its 2015 &quot;Climate and Health Country Profile Project&quot; and the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) with its 2018 &quot;Health and Climate Change&quot;, agree on the emergency generated by the climate change and concerning health problems. The mitigation strategy suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) against greenhouse gas emissions and their effects on climate change, has not yet yielded the desired results. It is therefore necessary to focus on adaptation strategies, to immediately counter the effects of climate change (CC) on most vulnerable people and environments, by increasing their resilience through local interventions and targeted resilience actions. Coordinated resilience actions are necessary to combat the effects of CC especially in urban areas. Useful tools to manage and optimize resilience actions are artificial neural networks (ANN) in complex and dynamic domains as cities are. The case of ANN applied to a city is presented as an example to increase the climate resilience of health local systems. In the current state of knowledge, ANN prove to be the most advanced and global solution to coordinate and manage a set of resilience actions in urban areas.},
}
@article {pmid31850858,
year = {2019},
author = {Ricciardi, W and Marcheggiani, S and Puccinelli, C and Carere, M and Sofia, T and Giuliano, F and Dogliotti, E and Mancini, L and Agrimi, U and Alleva, E and Busani, L and De Castro, P and Gaudi, S and Michelozzi, P and Rezza, G and Testai, E and Vella, S},
title = {Health and Climate Change: science calls for global action.},
journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita},
volume = {55},
number = {4},
pages = {323-329},
doi = {10.4415/ANN_19_04_04},
pmid = {31850858},
issn = {2384-8553},
abstract = {Climate changes affect social and environmental health determinants such as clean air, ecosystems health, safe drinking water and safe sufficient food. Globally, people at greatest risk of adverse health effects associated with climate change include children, the elderly and other vulnerable groups. Temperature-related death and illness, extreme events, polluted or stressed ecosystems represent relevant issues raising concern for both health and economic consequences. The aim of the Symposium &quot;Health and Climate Change&quot; (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome 3-5 December 2018) was to promote an inter-sectoral and multidisciplinary approach to estimate and prevent climate change-related events as well as to call the authorities to put in place measures to reduce adverse health effects. At the end of the Symposium the Rome International Charter on Health and Climate Change was presented. It includes a series of actions and recommendations, discussed and shared by all the participants, intended to inform policy makers and all the stakeholders involved in the management of climate changes.},
}
@article {pmid31847858,
year = {2019},
author = {Delany-Crowe, T and Marinova, D and Fisher, M and McGreevy, M and Baum, F},
title = {Australian policies on water management and climate change: are they supporting the sustainable development goals and improved health and well-being?.},
journal = {Globalization and health},
volume = {15},
number = {1},
pages = {68},
doi = {10.1186/s12992-019-0509-3},
pmid = {31847858},
issn = {1744-8603},
support = {DP160100244//Australian Research Council (AU)/ ; },
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Sustainable management of the natural environment is essential. Continued environmental degradation will lead to worsened health outcomes in countries and across generations. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a framework for viewing the preservation of natural environments and the promotion of health, well-being and health equity as interconnected pursuits. Within the SDG framework the goals of promoting environmental sustainability and human health are unified through attention to the social determinants of health and health equity (SDH/HE). This paper presents findings from a document analysis of all Australian environment sector policies and selected legislation to examine whether and how current approaches support progress toward achieving SDG goals on water, climate change, and marine ecosystems (Goals 6, 13 and 14), and to consider implications for health and health equity.<br><br>RESULTS: Consideration of a broad range of SDH/HE was evident in the analysed documents. Related collaborations between environment and health sectors were identified, but the bulk of proposed actions on SDH/HE were initiated by the environment sector as part of its core business. Strengths of Australian policy in regard to SDGs 6, 13 and 14 are reflected in recognition of the effects of climate change, a strong cohesive approach to marine park protection, and recognition of the need to protect existing water and sanitation systems from future threats. However, climate change strategies focus predominately on resilience, adaptation and heat related health effects, rather than on more comprehensive mitigation policies. The findings emphasise the importance of strengthened cross-sectoral action to address both the drivers and effects of environmental degradation. A lack of policy coherence between jurisdictions was also evident in several areas, compounded by inadequate national guidance, where vague strategies and non-specific devolution of responsibilities are likely to compromise coordination and accountability.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Evidence on planetary health recognises the interconnectedness of environmental and human health and, as such, suggests that ineffective management of climate change and water pose serious risks to both the natural environment and human well-being. To address these risks more effectively, and to achieve the SDGs, our findings indicate that cross-jurisdiction policy coherence and national coordination must be improved. In addition, more action to address global inequities is required, along with more comprehensive approaches to climate change mitigation.},
}
@article {pmid31847373,
year = {2019},
author = {Filho, WL and Scheday, S and Boenecke, J and Gogoi, A and Maharaj, A and Korovou, S},
title = {Climate Change, Health and Mosquito-Borne Diseases: Trends and Implications to the Pacific Region.},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health},
volume = {16},
number = {24},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph16245114},
pmid = {31847373},
issn = {1660-4601},
abstract = {Climate change is known to affect Pacific Island nations in a variety of ways. One of them is by increasing the vulnerability of human health induced by various climate change impacts, which pose an additional burden to the already distressed health systems in the region. This paper explores the associations between climate change and human health on the one hand, and outlines some of the health care challenges posed by a changing climate on the other. In particular, it describes the links between climate variations and the emergence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases, such as the mosquito-borne diseases dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The paper also presents a summary of the key findings of the research initiatives Climate Change and Prevalence Study of ZIKA Virus Diseases in Fiji and the findings from the World Mosquito Program as two examples of public health action in the Pacific region.},
}
@article {pmid31846685,
year = {2019},
author = {Lippmann, R and Babben, S and Menger, A and Delker, C and Quint, M},
title = {Development of Wild and Cultivated Plants under Global Warming Conditions.},
journal = {Current biology : CB},
volume = {29},
number = {24},
pages = {R1326-R1338},
doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.10.016},
pmid = {31846685},
issn = {1879-0445},
abstract = {Global warming is one of the most detrimental aspects of climate change, affecting plant growth and development across the entire life cycle. This Review explores how different stages of development are influenced by elevated temperature in both wild plants and crops. Starting from seed development and germination, global warming will influence morphological adjustments, termed thermomorphogenesis, and photosynthesis primarily during the vegetative phase, as well as flowering and reproductive development. Where applicable, we distinguish between moderately elevated temperatures that affect all stages of plant development and heat waves that often occur during the reproductive phase when they can have devastating consequences for fruit development. The parallel occurrence of elevated temperature with other abiotic and biotic stressors, particularly the combination of global warming and drought or increased pathogen pressure, will potentiate the challenges for both wild and cultivated plant species. The key components of the molecular networks underlying the physiological processes involved in thermal responses in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana are highlighted. In crops, temperature-sensitive traits relevant for yield are illustrated for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.), representing cultivated species adapted to temperate vs. warm climate zones, respectively. While the fate of wild plants depends on political agendas, plant breeding approaches informed by mechanistic understanding originating in basic science can enable the generation of climate change-resilient crops.},
}
@article {pmid31846164,
year = {2019},
author = {Kingsbury, KM and Gillanders, BM and Booth, DJ and Nagelkerken, I},
title = {Trophic niche segregation allows range-extending coral reef fishes to co-exist with temperate species under climate change.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14898},
pmid = {31846164},
issn = {1365-2486},
support = {DP170101722//Australian Research Council/ ; LE120100054//Australian Research Council/ ; },
abstract = {Changing climate is forcing many terrestrial and marine species to extend their ranges poleward to stay within the bounds of their thermal tolerances. However, when such species enter higher latitude ecosystems, they engage in novel interactions with local species, such as altered predator-prey dynamics and competition for food. Here, we evaluate the trophic overlap between range-extending and local fish species along the east coast of temperate Australia, a hotspot for ocean warming and species range extensions. Stable isotope ratios (δ15 N and δ13 C) of muscle tissue and stomach content analysis were used to quantify overlap of trophic niche space between vagrant tropical and local temperate fish communities along a 730 km (6°) latitudinal gradient. Our study shows that in recipient temperate ecosystems, sympatric tropical and temperate species do not overlap significantly in their diet-even though they forage on broadly similar prey groups-and are therefore unlikely to compete for trophic niche space. The tropical and temperate species we studied, which are commonly found in shallow-water coastal environments, exhibited moderately broad niche breadths and local-scale dietary plasticity, indicating trophic generalism. We posit that because these species are generalists, they can co-exist under current climate change, facilitating the existence of novel community structures.},
}
@article {pmid31844992,
year = {2019},
author = {Hussain, M and Butt, AR and Uzma, F and Ahmed, R and Irshad, S and Rehman, A and Yousaf, B},
title = {A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {1},
pages = {48},
pmid = {31844992},
issn = {1573-2959},
support = {(WK2080000103)//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; (2018M632552)//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; (2018FYB0002)//CAS-Young Scientist Award/ ; },
abstract = {The devastations and damages caused by climate change are apparent across the globe, specifically in the South Asian region where vulnerabilities to climate change among residents are high and climate change adaptation and mitigation awareness are extremely low. Pakistan's low adaptive capacity due to high poverty rate, limited financial resources and shortage of physical resources, and continual extreme climatic events including varying temperature, continual flooding, melting glaciers, saturation of lakes, earthquakes, hurricanes, storms, avalanches, droughts, scarcity of water, pest diseases, human healthcare issues, and seasonal and lifestyle changes have persistently threatened the ecosystem, biodiversity, human communities, animal habitations, forests, lands, and oceans with a potential to cause further damages in the future. The likely effect of climate change on common residents of Pakistan with comparison to the world and their per capita impact of climate change are terribly high with local animal species such as lions, vultures, dolphins, and tortoise facing extinction regardless of generating and contributing diminutively to global GHG emissions. The findings of the review suggested that GHG emissions cause climate change which has impacted agriculture livestock and forestry, weather trends and patterns, food water and energy security, and society of Pakistan. This review is a sectorial evaluation of climate change mitigation and adaption approaches in Pakistan in the aforementioned sectors and its economic costs which were identified to be between 7 to 14 billion USD per annum. The research suggested that governmental interference is essential for sustainable development of the country through strict accountability of resources and regulation implemented in the past for generating state-of-the-art climate policy.},
}
@article {pmid31844515,
year = {2019},
author = {Morrison, BD and Heath, K and Greenberg, JA},
title = {Spatial scale affects novel and disappeared climate change projections in Alaska.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {9},
number = {21},
pages = {12026-12044},
pmid = {31844515},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {The formation of novel and disappeared climates between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the present is important to consider to understand the expansion and contraction of species niches and distributions, as well as the formation and loss of communities and ecological interactions over time. Our choice in climate data resolution has the potential to complicate predictions of the ecological impacts of climate change, since climate varies from local to global scales and this spatial variation is reflected in climate data. To address this issue, we downscaled LGM and modern (1975-2005) 30-year averaged climate data to 60-m resolution for the entire state of Alaska for 10 different climate variables, and then upsampled each variable to coarser resolutions (60 m to 12 km). We modeled the distributions of novel and disappeared climates to evaluate the locations and fractional area of novel and disappeared climates for each of our climate variables and resolutions. Generally, novel and disappeared climates were located in southern Alaska, although there were cases where some disappeared climates existed within coastal and interior Alaska. Climate resolution affected the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates in three patterns: As the spatial resolution of climate became coarser, the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates (a) increased, (b) decreased, or (c) had no explainable relationship. Overall, we found the use of coarser climate data increased the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates due to decreased environmental variability and removal of climate extremes. Our results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse climate data and suggest that studies analyzing the effects of climate change on ecosystems may overestimate or underestimate their conclusions when utilizing coarse climate data.},
}
@article {pmid31844397,
year = {2019},
author = {Buka, I and Shea, KM},
title = {Global climate change and health in Canadian children.},
journal = {Paediatrics &amp; child health},
volume = {24},
number = {8},
pages = {557-558},
doi = {10.1093/pch/pxz157},
pmid = {31844397},
issn = {1205-7088},
abstract = {Climate change is a reality. Numerous expert authorities warn of the critical need to undertake and adapt environmental efforts to protect human health. Climate change is accelerating, and countries in high latitudes, such as Canada, are experiencing climate change more directly and, for some end points, more dramatically than mid- and low-latitude countries. Children are vulnerable to climate change health effects, and physicians and other health care providers need to be ready to identify, manage, and prevent climate change-related health hazards. This practice point highlights specific, climate change-related threats to the health of children and youth, and provides resources for health care providers. Climate challenges and their health impacts on children are described, based on key Canadian reports and scientifically referenced information. Enhanced awareness of the immediate and longer-term health effects of climate change on children allows physicians and other health care providers to counsel families and practice more effectively.},
}
@article {pmid31841912,
year = {2019},
author = {Zhang, Y and Liang, J and Zeng, G and Tang, W and Lu, Y and Luo, Y and Xing, W and Tang, N and Ye, S and Li, X and Huang, W},
title = {How climate change and eutrophication interact with microplastic pollution and sediment resuspension in shallow lakes: A review.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {705},
number = {},
pages = {135979},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135979},
pmid = {31841912},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change and eutrophication are both critical environmental issues currently. Climate change induces more critical microplastic pollution and sediment resuspension in eutrophic lakes, and conversely the presence of microplastics and resuspension events would intensify these two environmental effects. Via evaluating the impacts of microplastics and sediment resuspension on climate change and eutrophication, it is favorable to provide recommendations for ecological protection and policy formulation in regard to the nutrient input as well as the production and utilization of plastic. In this review, we explore how climate change and eutrophication interact with microplastic pollution and sediment resuspension in shallow lakes, highlighting that both of the latter two play a significant role in the former two. Furthermore, future prospects are put forward on the further and deeper research on the global warming and eutrophication in shallow lakes with microplastic pollution.},
}
@article {pmid31839307,
year = {2019},
author = {Jiang, H and Xu, X and Guan, M and Wang, L and Huang, Y and Jiang, Y},
title = {Determining the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamics in agro-pastural transitional zone of northern China from 2000 to 2015.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {134871},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134871},
pmid = {31839307},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The vegetation in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) was significantly restored, and both climate change and ecological restoration projects contributed to vegetation activities with varied proportion. Since few decades ago, APTZNC has undergone significant land degradation and climate change, threatening regional sustainable development, and in response to such ecological crises, multiple ecological restoration projects were implemented, which have caused a profound impact on the terrestrial ecosystem. Taking agro-pastural transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) as the study area, this study used 16-year (2000-2015) net primary productivity (NPP) as an important indicator of the arid and semi-arid ecosystem's productivity, combing meteorological data in same period to (1) monitor the vegetation dynamics affected by both climate and ecological restoration projects; (2) detect climate changing trend, including annual precipitation, air temperature, and sunlight hours; (3) explicitly distinguish driving forces of climate change and ecological restoration projects on vegetation dynamics based on correlation analysis. The results demonstrated that (1) the annual NPP indicated overall greening (48.77% significant restoration) and partial degradation (0.39% significant degradation) in APTZNC; (2) the annual precipitation was the main factor that widely influences vegetation growth, and the area with significant influence accounted for 55.53%; however, the area with significant temperature influence only accounted for 1%, and the area affected significantly by sunshine hours accounted for 14.33%; (3) In the area of significant greening with proportion of 48.77%, of 26.93% was related to climate change, of 19.80% was related to ecological conservation programs, and of 2.05% was related to multiple factors. In the significantly degraded area with proportion of 0.39%, of 0.1% is related to climate change and of 0.29% is abnormally degraded. Our study is expected to accelerate the understanding of vegetation dynamics and its driving mechanisms, and provide support for scientifically formulating and adjusting ecological restoration projects in APTZNC.},
}
@article {pmid31839187,
year = {2019},
author = {Pandey, BD and Costello, A},
title = {The dengue epidemic and climate change in Nepal.},
journal = {Lancet (London, England)},
volume = {394},
number = {10215},
pages = {2150-2151},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32689-3},
pmid = {31839187},
issn = {1474-547X},
}
@article {pmid31838422,
year = {2019},
author = {Jiang, Q and Qi, Z and Xue, L and Bukovsky, M and Madramootoo, CA and Smith, W},
title = {Assessing climate change impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, N losses in drainage and crop production in a subsurface drained field.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {705},
number = {},
pages = {135969},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135969},
pmid = {31838422},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Future climate change-driven alterations in precipitation patterns, increases in temperature, and rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]atm) are expected to alter agricultural productivity and environmental quality, while high latitude countries like Canada are likely to face more challenges from global climate change. However, potential climate change impact on GHG emissions from tile-drained fields is poorly documented. Accordingly, climate change impacts on GHG emissions, N losses to drainage and crop production in a subsurface-drained field in Southern Quebec, Canada were assessed using calibrated and validated RZWQM2 model. The RZWQM2 model was run for a historical period (1971-2000) and for a future period (2038 to 2070) using data generated from 11 different GCM-RCMs (global climate models coupled with regional climate models). Under the projected warmer and higher rainfall conditions mean drainage flow was predicted to increase by 17%, and the N losses through subsurface drains increase by 47%. Despite the negative effect of warming temperature on crop yield, soybean yield was predicted to increase by 31% due to increased photosynthesis rates and improved crop water use efficiency (WUE) under elevated [CO2]atm, while corn yield was reduced by 7% even with elevated [CO2]atm because of a shorter life cycle from seedling to maturity resulted from higher temperature. The N2O emissions would be enhanced by 21% due to greater denitrification and mineralization, while CO2 emissions would increase by 16% because of more crop biomass accumulation, higher crop residue decomposition, and greater soil microbial activities. Soil organic carbon storage was predicted to decrease 22% faster in the future, which would result in higher global warming potential in turn. This study demonstrates the potential of exacerbating GHG emissions and water quality problems and reduced corn yield under climate change impact in subsurface drained fields in southern Quebec.},
}
@article {pmid31836470,
year = {2019},
author = {Henry, RJ},
title = {Innovations in plant genetics adapting agriculture to climate change.},
journal = {Current opinion in plant biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2019.11.004},
pmid = {31836470},
issn = {1879-0356},
abstract = {Developing new genotypes of plants is one of the key options for adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Plants may be required to provide resilience in changed climates or support the migration of agriculture to new regions. Very different genotypes may be required to perform in the modified environments of protected agriculture. Consumers will continue to demand taste, convenience, healthy and safe food and sustainably and ethically produced food, despite the greater challenges of climate in the future. Improving the nutritional value of foods in response to climate change is a significant challenge. Genomic sequences of relevant germplasm and an understanding of the functional role of alleles controlling key traits will be an enabling platform for this innovation.},
}
@article {pmid31833697,
year = {2019},
author = {Zhao, RN and He, QQ and Chu, XJ and Lu, ZQ and Zhu, ZL},
title = {[Prediction of potential distribution of Carpinus cordata in China under climate change.].},
journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology},
volume = {30},
number = {11},
pages = {3833-3843},
doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201911.020},
pmid = {31833697},
issn = {1001-9332},
mesh = {*Altitude ; Betulaceae ; China ; *Climate Change ; },
abstract = {Climate change seriously affects the geographical distribution of plants. Regional diffe-rences in plant response to climate change will provide important guidance for species introduction and conservation. Based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt model, we used 176 geographic information of Carpinus cordata and 13 climatic variables to reconstruct its current and future niche. The results showed that the model had a high credibility in simulating contemporary potential distribution areas. The AUC values of the test set and the training set of the model were 0.973 and 0.957, respectively. The main core suitable areas were concentrated in Qinling, Changbai Mountain and their adjacent areas, with other sporadic &quot;island&quot; distribution. C. cordata is not distributed in Guizhou, Jiangxi, Yunnan and Fujian, but the model predicted some suitable distribution areas in those provinces. With climate warming in the future, ecologically suitable areas of C. cordata would increase significantly, mainly as &quot;shrinking to high altitude areas&quot;, &quot;expanding northward&quot;, and &quot;expanding eastward&quot;. However, core suitable areas would be slightly reduced, which would be manifested as &quot;shrinking southward&quot;, &quot;moderate stability&quot;, and &quot;expanding northward&quot;. The response of C. cordata distribution to climate warming was obviously regional. Eastern Jiangsu, Anhui, and other places would become ecologically suitable areas for C. cordata because of their unique geographical location and climatic environment. The lower latitudes of the south, the original low-altitude areas might no longer be suitable for survival. The central Qinling region was a transition region from north to south, with strong buffer capacity, and climate warming had little effect on its distribution area. The Changbai Mountain and its adjacent areas at higher latitudes were more suitable for C. cordata.},
}
@article {pmid31833135,
year = {2019},
author = {Lennox, RJ and Bravener, GA and Lin, HY and Madenjian, CP and Muir, AM and Remucal, CK and Robinson, KF and Rous, AM and Siefkes, MJ and Wilkie, MP and Zielinski, DP and Cooke, SJ},
title = {Potential changes to the biology and challenges to the management of invasive sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the Laurentian Great Lakes due to climate change.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14957},
pmid = {31833135},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Control programs are implemented to mitigate the damage caused by invasive species worldwide. In the highly invaded Great Lakes, the climate is expected to become warmer with more extreme weather and variable precipitation, resulting in shorter iced-over periods and variable tributary flows as well as changes to pH and river hydrology and hydrogeomorphology. We review how climate change influences physiology, behaviour, and demography of a highly damaging invasive species, sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), in the Great Lakes, and the consequences for sea lamprey control efforts. Sea lamprey control relies on surveys to monitor abundance of larval sea lamprey in Great Lakes tributaries. The abundance of parasitic, juvenile sea lampreys in the lakes are calculated by surveying wounding rates on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), and trap surveys are used to enumerate adult spawning runs. Chemical control using lampricides (i.e. lamprey pesticides) to target larval sea lamprey, plus barriers to prevent adult lamprey from reaching spawning grounds are the most important tools used for sea lamprey population control. We describe how climate change could affect larval survival in rivers, growth and maturation in lakes, phenology and the spawning migration as adults return to rivers, and the overall abundance and distribution of sea lamprey in the Great Lakes. Our review suggests that Great Lakes sea lamprey may l benefit from climate change with longer growing seasons, more rapid growth, and greater access to spawning habitat, but uncertainties remain about the future availability and suitability of larval habitats. Consideration of the biology of invasive species and adaptation of the timing, intensity and frequency of control efforts are critical to the management of biological invasions in a changing world, such as sea lamprey in the Great Lakes.},
}
@article {pmid31832730,
year = {2019},
author = {Campos, FS and Lourenço-de-Moraes, R and Ruas, DS and Mira-Mendes, CV and Franch, M and Llorente, GA and Solé, M and Cabral, P},
title = {Searching for Networks: Ecological Connectivity for Amphibians Under Climate Change.},
journal = {Environmental management},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01240-0},
pmid = {31832730},
issn = {1432-1009},
support = {140710/2013-2; 152303/2016-2; 430195/2018-4//CNPq/ ; },
abstract = {Ecological connectivity depends on key elements within the landscape, which can support ecological fluxes, species richness and long-term viability of a biological community. Landscape planning requires clear aims and quantitative approaches to identify which key elements can reinforce the spatial coherence of protected areas design. We aim to explore the probability of the ecological connectivity of forest remnants and amphibian species distributions for current and future climate scenarios across the Central Corridor of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Integrating amphibian conservation, climate change and ecological corridors, we design a landscape ranking based on graph and circuit theories. To identify the sensitivity of connected areas to climate-dependent changes, we use the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate by means of simulations for 2080-2100, representing a moderated emission scenario within an optimistic context. Our findings indicate that more than 70% of forest connectivity loss by climate change may drastically reduce amphibian dispersal in this region. We show that high amphibian turnover rates tend to be greater in the north-eastern edges of the corridor across ensembles of forecasts. Our spatial analysis reveals a general pattern of low-conductance areas in landscape surface, yet with some well-connected patches suggesting potential ecological corridors. Atlantic Forest reserves are expected to be less effective in a near future. For improved conservation outcomes, we recommend some landscape paths with low resistance values across space and time. We highlight the importance of maintaining forest remnants in the southern Bahia region by drafting a blueprint for functional biodiversity corridors.},
}
@article {pmid31832670,
year = {2019},
author = {Brait, VH},
title = {Climate change is a fundamental factor in the relationship between buildings and health.},
journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdz150},
pmid = {31832670},
issn = {1741-3850},
}
@article {pmid31832193,
year = {2019},
author = {Blamires, SJ and Sellers, WI},
title = {Modelling temperature and humidity effects on web performance: implications for predicting orb-web spider (Argiope spp.) foraging under Australian climate change scenarios.},
journal = {Conservation physiology},
volume = {7},
number = {1},
pages = {coz083},
pmid = {31832193},
issn = {2051-1434},
abstract = {Phenotypic features extending beyond the body, or EPs, may vary plastically across environments. EP constructs, such as spider webs, vary in property across environments as a result of changes to the physiology of the animal or interactions between the environment and the integrity of the material from which the EP is manufactured. Due to the complexity of the interactions between EP constructs and the environment, the impact of climate change on EP functional integrity is poorly understood. Here we used a dynamic model to assess how temperature and humidity influence spider web major ampullate (MA) silk properties. MA silk is the silk that absorbs the impact of prey striking the web, hence our model provides a useful interpretation of web performance over the temperature (i.e. 20-55°C) and humidity (i.e. 15-100%) ranges assessed. Our results showed that extremely high or low humidity had direct negative effects on web capture performance, with changes in temperature likely having indirect effects. Undeniably, the effect of temperature on web architecture and its interactive effect with humidity on web tension and capture thread stickiness need to be factored into any further predictions of plausible climate change impacts. Since our study is the first to model plasticity in an EP construct's functionality and to extrapolate the results to predict climate change impacts, it stands as a template for future studies that endeavour to make predictions about the influence of climate change on animal EPs.},
}
@article {pmid31832160,
year = {2019},
author = {Low, M and Arlt, D and Knape, J and Pärt, T and Öberg, M},
title = {Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival-breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change.},
journal = {Ecology and evolution},
volume = {9},
number = {21},
pages = {12291-12301},
pmid = {31832160},
issn = {2045-7758},
abstract = {Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival-breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long-term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival-to-breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg-laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5-6 days), with considerable between-individual variation in the arrival-breeding interval. The arrival-breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early-arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first-year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival-breeding interval being absent in late-arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early- to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late-arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early- versus late-arriving birds.},
}
@article {pmid31831643,
year = {2019},
author = {Morecroft, MD and Duffield, S and Harley, M and Pearce-Higgins, JW and Stevens, N and Watts, O and Whitaker, J},
title = {Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems.},
journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)},
volume = {366},
number = {6471},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaw9256},
pmid = {31831643},
issn = {1095-9203},
abstract = {Natural and seminatural ecosystems must be at the forefront of efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In the urgency of current circumstances, ecosystem restoration represents a range of available, efficient, and effective solutions to cut net greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Although mitigation success can be measured by monitoring changing fluxes of greenhouse gases, adaptation is more complicated to measure, and reductions in a wide range of risks for biodiversity and people must be evaluated. Progress has been made in the monitoring and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation measures, but more emphasis on testing the effectiveness of proposed strategies is necessary. It is essential to take an integrated view of mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity, and the needs of people, to realize potential synergies and avoid conflict between different objectives.},
}
@article {pmid31831355,
year = {2019},
author = {Christmann, S},
title = {Climate change enforces to look beyond the plant - the example of pollinators.},
journal = {Current opinion in plant biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2019.11.001},
pmid = {31831355},
issn = {1879-0356},
abstract = {Within global crop production 1961-2012, the share of pollinator independent crops increased twofold, but fourfold of pollinator dependent crops. Balanced diets within the boundaries of our planet require even more pollinator dependent crops. Particularly, Low and Middle Income Countries in the drylands produce pollinator dependent crops. However, climate change and agriculture increasingly cause risks for pollinators. Common reward-based seeding of wildflower strips is too expensive for these countries. Breeding towards pollinator independent crops might accelerate loss of pollinators. Recent publications warned that pollinator loss can reduce other ecosystem services supporting crop production. A new alternative approach called Farming with Alternative Pollinators (FAP) might fill the gap. FAP creates on-farm habitable conditions for pollinators and increases productivity and incomes per surface.},
}
@article {pmid31830022,
year = {2019},
author = {Horrocks, J and Wilson, N},
title = {&quot;Beasts&quot;-New Zealand's utility vehicles: their climate change emissions and macho marketing.},
journal = {The New Zealand medical journal},
volume = {132},
number = {1507},
pages = {90-99},
pmid = {31830022},
issn = {1175-8716},
abstract = {Vehicle emissions are an important contributor to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand. Here we explore the role of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and light utility vehicles (utes) in this problem. Marketed as macho symbols of toughness and dominance, often through comparisons with savage predators, these vehicles are promoted largely to male consumers. Eight out of 10 of the highest-selling new light vehicles in 2018 were SUVs or diesel-powered utes, with the latter standing out as the heaviest emitters of CO2, as well as posing health hazards through their emissions of fine particulates and NOx. The current popularity of these vehicles may create resistance to some of the substantive regulatory steps which will be needed if New Zealand is to meet its climate change commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement. An example of such an initiative is the current government proposal for a Clean Car Standard and Clean Car Discount-a 'feebate' scheme which confers a price advantage on new electric vehicles and smaller cars.},
}
@article {pmid31829787,
year = {2019},
author = {Rhodes, CJ},
title = {Only 12 years left to readjust for the 1.5-degree climate change option - Says International Panel on Climate Change report: Current commentary.},
journal = {Science progress},
volume = {102},
number = {1},
pages = {73-87},
doi = {10.1177/0036850418823397},
pmid = {31829787},
issn = {2047-7163},
}
@article {pmid31828318,
year = {2019},
author = {Woodhall, SC and Landeg, O and Kovats, S},
title = {Public health and climate change: How are local authorities preparing for the health impacts of our changing climate?.},
journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdz098},
pmid = {31828318},
issn = {1741-3850},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Local authorities have a crucial role in preparing for the impacts of climate change. However, the extent to which health impacts are being prioritized and acted on is not well understood.<br><br>METHODS: We investigated the role of public health in adapting to climate change through: (i) a content analysis of local authority climate change adaptation strategies in South West England and (ii) semi-structured telephone interviews with local authority public health consultants and sustainability officers and a regional Public Health England representative (n = 11).<br><br>RESULTS: Adaptation strategies/plans varied in existence and scope. Public health consultants did not have an explicit remit for climate change adaptation, although related action often aligned with public health's emergency planning functions. Key barriers to health-related adaptation were financial constraints, lack of leadership and limited public and professional awareness about health impacts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Local authorities in South West England have differing approaches to tackling health impacts of climate change, and the prominence of public health arguments for adaptation varies. Improved public health intelligence, concise communications, targeted support, visible local and national leadership and clarity on economic costs and benefits of adaptation would be useful for local authorities in preparing for the health impacts of climate change.},
}
@article {pmid31827188,
year = {2019},
author = {Kim, GU and Seo, KH and Chen, D},
title = {Climate change over the Mediterranean and current destruction of marine ecosystem.},
journal = {Scientific reports},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {18813},
pmid = {31827188},
issn = {2045-2322},
support = {NRF-2018R1A2A2A05018426//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; NRF-2018R1A2A2A05018426//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; KMI 2018-01012//KMA Research and Development Program/ ; KMI 2018-01012//KMA Research and Development Program/ ; },
abstract = {The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and its summer climate is known to be affected by the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) through the monsoon-desert teleconnection. In future, rainfall is expected to increase not only over the SASM area but also over the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and equatorial Atlantic regions. Here we show that the remote forcing regions affect the Mediterranean climate in the future. A subset of CMIP5 climate simulations exhibits an increase in the descending motion over the Western Mediterranean in the future. This strengthened subsidence comes from the SASM, EASM, and Atlantic forcings: the SASM and EASM heating induces the Gill-type Rossby wave response, and the Atlantic forcing causes the northeastward wave energy propagation. The sea surface temperature change over the Western Mediterranean is consistent with the subsidence change both in the future and in the recent decades. The chlorophyll-a concentration and fisheries landings have decreased in the recent period along with sea surface temperature warming. Our results suggest that special attention is required to conserve the marine ecosystem in the Mediterranean as climate warms.},
}
@article {pmid31826359,
year = {2019},
author = {Shultz, JM and Sands, DE and Kossin, JP and Galea, S},
title = {Double Environmental Injustice - Climate Change, Hurricane Dorian, and the Bahamas.},
journal = {The New England journal of medicine},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1912965},
pmid = {31826359},
issn = {1533-4406},
}
@article {pmid31826335,
year = {2019},
author = {Dunk, JH and Jones, DS},
title = {Sounding the Alarm on Climate Change, 1989 and 2019.},
journal = {The New England journal of medicine},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1913916},
pmid = {31826335},
issn = {1533-4406},
}
@article {pmid31824603,
year = {2019},
author = {Rukema, JR and Umubyeyi, BS},
title = {Indigenous knowledge approach in maintaining a livelihood in the face of disastrous climate change: Case of drought in Msinga villages, KwaZulu-Natal.},
journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {758},
doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.758},
pmid = {31824603},
issn = {1996-1421},
abstract = {The aim of this study is to explore and examine the ways of maintaining livelihoods of communities in the face of extreme climatic conditions using indigenous knowledge systems. Special attention was paid to drought prevailing in the Msinga village communities in the northern part of KwaZulu-Natal. This is a qualitative study. In order to achieve its objectives, this study used semi-structured interviews. In total, there were 16 participants from the Msinga villages. The findings demonstrated that droughts are endemic to the study area, and drought-management strategies are as intrinsic to local livelihood systems as are seasonal-adjustment strategies. The findings also indicated that communities in Msinga have knowledge of drought management. However, this knowledge contributes very little to the management of drought. Limitations in traditional knowledge that contribute effectively to drought management are due to a number of factors including conflicts between traditional knowledge and modern science. This implied that most young people are no longer interested in traditional knowledge but are more interested in modern science. Furthermore, government programmes and interventions hamper the efforts of traditional knowledge in dealing with the consequences of drought and thereby make the community vulnerable to drought.},
}
@article {pmid31820234,
year = {2019},
author = {Ma, R and Zhang, B and Zhou, X},
title = {The effects of climate change and groundwater exploitation on the spatial and temporal variations of heavy metal content in maize in the Luan River catchment of China.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07012-x},
pmid = {31820234},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {The effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the concentration of heavy metal in maize were quantitatively characterized in this study to help us better understand the complex interactions among the groundwater, vadose, plant, and atmosphere layers in the critical zone. We hypothesized that climate change and groundwater resource exploitation firstly affected the shallow groundwater level, and then the groundwater table fluctuation (GTF) impacted the concentration of heavy metal in maize through the critical zone (CZ) structure and parameters. To test our hypothesis, we collected 960 soil and 288 maize samples from the Luan River catchment in the North China Plain. The Groundwater Modeling System software was used to describe the effects of precipitation and groundwater resource exploitation on the groundwater table, and then, the structural equation method was employed to characterize the quantitative effects of GTF, precipitation, and air temperature on the concentration of heavy metal in maize. The results indicate that the influence coefficients of the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cr As, Pb, and Sr were 0.1595, 0.088, 0.0042, - 0.0092, 0.2219, and 0.0493 in the north plain, respectively, and 0.0256, 0.0151, 0.0816, - 0.2264, 0.1125, and - 0.0106 in the south plain of the study region, respectively. Since the human health risks of metals were mainly attributed to Fe, Mn, and Cr in the Luan River catchment, increasing the groundwater resource exploitation volume is an effective way to decrease the Fe, Mn, and Cr contents in maize by decreasing the shallow groundwater table.},
}
@article {pmid31820033,
year = {2019},
author = {Bein, T and Karagiannidis, C and Quintel, M},
title = {Climate change, global warming, and intensive care.},
journal = {Intensive care medicine},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00134-019-05888-4},
pmid = {31820033},
issn = {1432-1238},
}
@article {pmid31819908,
year = {2019},
author = {Sisodiya, SM and Fowler, HJ and Lake, I and Nanji, RO and Gawel, K and Esguerra, CV and Newton, C and Foley, A},
title = {Climate change and epilepsy: Time to take action.},
journal = {Epilepsia open},
volume = {4},
number = {4},
pages = {524-536},
pmid = {31819908},
issn = {2470-9239},
abstract = {Climate change is the biggest challenge facing humanity today. The associated global warming and humidification, increases in the severity and frequency of extreme climate events, extension of the ranges of vector-borne diseases, and the consequent social and economic stresses and disruption will have major negative consequences on many aspects of health care. People whose resilience to change is already impaired may suffer disproportionately from these environmental changes, which are of unprecedented reach and magnitude. There has been little connection made so far between climate change and epilepsy. We briefly review the history of climate change science and the subsequent response of the global scientific community. We consider how climate change effects might in general affect health and disease. We consider some of the underlying complex interactions that, for example, favor the spread of vector-borne diseases and how climate models operate and may help plan for global and local changes. We then speculate specifically on how these generic ideas may apply specifically to epilepsy. We consider these impacts at levels from molecular to the epidemiological. Data are sparse, and there is undoubtedly a need for more information to enable better estimation of possible effects of climate change on care in epilepsy. We also consider how the professional activities of those involved in epilepsy health care might contribute to global carbon emissions, for example, through flying for conference attendance. Healthcare organizations across the world are already considering, and responding to, many of these issues. We argue for more research in this area, but also for action today. Actions today are likely to generate cobenefits for health care, including care in epilepsy, resulting from efforts to decarbonize, mitigate effects of climate change that has already happened, and plan for adaptation to climate change.},
}
@article {pmid31819239,
year = {2019},
author = {Åkesson, CM and Matthews-Bird, F and Bitting, M and Fennell, CJ and Church, WB and Peterson, LC and Valencia, BG and Bush, MB},
title = {2,100 years of human adaptation to climate change in the High Andes.},
journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-1056-2},
pmid = {31819239},
issn = {2397-334X},
support = {8763-10//National Geographic Society/ ; },
abstract = {Humid montane forests are challenging environments for human habitation. We used high-resolution fossil pollen, charcoal, diatom and sediment chemistry data from the iconic archaeological setting of Laguna de los Condores, Peru to reconstruct changing land uses and climates in a forested Andean valley. Forest clearance and maize cultivation were initiated during periods of drought, with periods of forest recovery occurring during wetter conditions. Between AD 800 and 1000 forest regrowth was evident, but this trend was reversed between AD 1000 and 1200 as drier conditions coincided with renewed land clearance, the establishment of a permanent village and the use of cliffs overlooking the lake as a burial site. By AD 1230 forests had regrown in the valley and maize cultivation was greatly reduced. An elevational transect investigating regional patterns showed a parallel, but earlier, history of reduced maize cultivation and forest regeneration at mid-elevation. However, a lowland site showed continuous maize agriculture until European conquest but very little subsequent change in forest cover. Divergent, climate-sensitive landscape histories do not support categorical assessments that forest regrowth and peak carbon sequestration coincided with European arrival.},
}
@article {pmid31818589,
year = {2019},
author = {Lu, S and Dai, W and Tang, Y and Guo, M},
title = {A review of the impact of hydropower reservoirs on global climate change.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {134996},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134996},
pmid = {31818589},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Three types of greenhouse gases (GHGs), namely carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emitted from reservoirs have an important but often ignored impact on the climate change. Based on the literature, this paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the long-term impact of GHGs generated by hydropower reservoirs, the systems for monitoring and assessing reservoir GHGs, the mechanism for their generation and key factors involved. Using limnology theory as a basis, the biogeochemical cycle of carbon in the environment is understood to be the main mechanism for generating reservoir based GHG emissions. A summary of relevant research in South American tropical rain forests and the Canada's temperate zone, also shows the extent of current systematic analysis of GHG emission research. Proposals are made for more comprehensive data collection from a wider variety of sources and the key problems identified that need to be solved to provide a theoretical basis for future development policies and practice.},
}
@article {pmid31818491,
year = {2019},
author = {Bennett, H and Macmillan, A and Jones, R and Blaiklock, A and McMillan, J},
title = {Should health professionals participate in civil disobedience in response to the climate change health emergency?.},
journal = {Lancet (London, England)},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32985-X},
pmid = {31818491},
issn = {1474-547X},
}
@article {pmid31817462,
year = {2019},
author = {Parisi, C and Guerriero, G},
title = {Antioxidative Defense and Fertility Rate in the Assessment of Reprotoxicity Risk Posed by Global Warming.},
journal = {Antioxidants (Basel, Switzerland)},
volume = {8},
number = {12},
pages = {},
doi = {10.3390/antiox8120622},
pmid = {31817462},
issn = {2076-3921},
abstract = {The objective of this review is to briefly summarize the recent progress in studies done on the assessment of reprotoxicity risk posed by global warming for the foundation of strategic tool in ecosystem-based adaptation. The selected animal data analysis that was used in this paper focuses on antioxidative markers and fertility rate estimated over the period 2000-2019. We followed a phylogenetic methodology in order to report data on a panel of selected organisms that show dangerous effects. The oxidative damage studies related to temperature fluctuation occurring in biosentinels of different invertebrate and vertebrate classes show a consistently maintained physiological defense. Furthermore, the results from homeothermic and poikilothermic species in our study highlight the influence of temperature rise on reprotoxicity.},
}
@article {pmid31814645,
year = {2019},
author = {Stephen, C and Carron, M and Stemshorn, B},
title = {Climate Change and Veterinary Medicine: Action is needed to retain social relevance.},
journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne},
volume = {60},
number = {12},
pages = {1356-1358},
pmid = {31814645},
issn = {0008-5286},
}
@article {pmid31812435,
year = {2019},
author = {Liu, Y and Li, N and Zhang, Z and Huang, C and Chen, X and Wang, F},
title = {The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {135355},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135355},
pmid = {31812435},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on crop yields in China since the IPCC AR4. However, the results from different studies can differ widely due to differences in crops, regions, scenarios, and analytical approaches. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in China using a systematic review at the national and subregional levels based on a data set of 667 published simulations. The results show that (1) the impact of climate change on crop yields was mainly reflected in temperature increases, with an average yield loss of 2.58% per °C at the national level. Subregional yield changes ranged from -12.70% to -2.57% per °C, with crop yields being more vulnerable in Northeast China and Northwest China than in other subregions. (2) The yields of crop samples that included CO2 effects were 9.23% higher than the yields of those without CO2 effects. (3) Evidence of the impacts of precipitation on crop yield was robust for Northeast China, Northwest China and North China and was absent or contradictory for the other subregions. (4) Of the three different crops, the response of wheat yields to warming was the most evident, especially in Northwest China, followed by that of maize yields in Northeast China. The negative effects of temperature increases on rice yields were significant at the national level but not at the subregional level. This study synthesized the results from all available studies in a systematic and unbiased manner and provided a robust assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on crop yields.},
}
@article {pmid31812427,
year = {2019},
author = {Ma, Q and Zhu, L and Wang, J and Ju, J and Wang, Y and Lü, X and Kasper, T and Haberzettl, T},
title = {Late Holocene vegetation responses to climate change and human impact on the central Tibetan Plateau.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {135370},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135370},
pmid = {31812427},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Understanding long-term environmental changes under natural and anthropic forces is helpful for facilitating sustainable development. Here we present a sedimentary record from the central Tibetan Plateau to investigate the impacts of climate and human activities on alpine vegetation during the late Holocene, based on a 162-cm-long lacustrine sediment core collected from Tangra Yumco. Palynology, charcoal and minerogenic input reveal variations of climate and human activity during the past 3400 cal yr BP. Our results show that alpine steppe dominated by Artemisia, Cyperaceae and Poaceae was present in the Tangra Yumco area during the entire covered period. Only minor human activities are visible between 3400 and 2300 as well as from 1700 to 400 cal yr BP, when vegetation was mainly influenced by climate. Although human activities (presence/grazing) became more intensive between 2300 and 1700 cal yr BP corresponding to the Zhang Zhung Kingdom, vegetation change is still mainly affected by a more arid climate. Strongest human influence on vegetation was found after 400 cal yr BP, when vegetation composition was altered by farming and grazing activities. Our records indicate human activities did not have significant impacts on alpine environment until the past few centuries at Tangra Yumco on the central Tibetan Plateau.},
}
@article {pmid31812417,
year = {2019},
author = {Rogora, M and Somaschini, L and Marchetto, A and Mosello, R and Tartari, GA and Paro, L},
title = {Decadal trends in water chemistry of Alpine lakes in calcareous catchments driven by climate change.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {135180},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135180},
pmid = {31812417},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {High mountain lakes are considered sensitive indicators of the effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers, including atmospheric deposition and climate change. In this study, we assess long-term trends in the chemistry of a group of high altitude lakes in the Western Alps, Italy, lying in bedrock with a relevant presence of basic, soluble rocks. An in-depth investigation was performed on two key-sites (Lakes Boden Inferiore and Superiore) for which continuous chemical data are available for a period of 30 years. A group of 10 additional lakes in the same area was also considered; these lakes were sampled at the end of the ice-free period during irregular surveys in the period 1980-2017. Water samples were analysed for the main chemical variables, including pH, electrical conductivity, major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, HCO3-, Cl-, SO42-, NO3-) and algal nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen compounds, reactive silica). A steep increase in conductivity and ion concentrations was detected at the key-sites: conductivity increased from 40-45 to 60-70 µS cm-1 over the period 1984-2017; sulphate concentrations more than doubled over the same period (from 50-60 to 120-180 µeq L-1) and base cations increased from 400-500 to 600-750 µeq L-1. An increase in the solute content was also detected in the survey lakes (average conductivity from 39 ± 20 to 57 ± 23 µS cm-1). The analysis of meteorological data revealed a significant increase of air temperature (0.019 °C y-1 over the period 1950-2017), mainly in spring and summer (0.033 °C y-1), and a decrease of snow cover depth and duration. Meteo-climatic drivers were identified as the responsible for the chemical changes occurred in the lakes. Climate-driven effects on weathering rates were mainly indirect and occurred by affecting the flow paths of water at both surface and subsurface level. Cryosphere modification (reduced snow cover and permafrost thawing) also played a role.},
}
@article {pmid31811391,
year = {2019},
author = {Wang, Y and Yim, SHL and Yang, Y and Morin, CW},
title = {The effect of urbanization and climate change on the mosquito population in the Pearl River Delta region of China.},
journal = {International journal of biometeorology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01837-4},
pmid = {31811391},
issn = {1432-1254},
support = {4930744//Vice-Chancellor's Discretionary Fund of The Chinese University of Hong Kong/ ; },
abstract = {The rising incidence of mosquito-borne diseases is a global concern. Changes in regional climate, due to urbanization and global greenhouse gas concentrations, may affect the ecology of mosquitoes and mosquito-transmitted pathogens. The effects of changes in climate on mosquito population dynamics are complex but critical and urgent for implementing more effective public health policies. This study quantified the impact of urbanization and global climate change on the population of the mosquito species, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the Pearl River Delta region in southern China-an area that has undergone substantial urbanization and is expected to experience changes in climate. This study employed a mechanistic model to simulate mosquito population dynamics under various greenhouse gas emission and land-cover change scenarios based on climate data provided by a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Our results show a 12.6% decrease in the annual mosquito population in newly urbanized areas and a 5.9% increase in the annual mosquito population in existing urban areas. Furthermore, changing climate conditions are projected to cause a 15-17% reduction in the total annual mosquito population; however, the change will not be uniform throughout the year. Peak months exhibit a reduction in population, whereas non-peak months show a significant increase. These findings suggest mosquito control strategies may need to be adjusted to respond to the impacts of urbanization and climate change on mosquito population dynamics to maximize effectiveness. Region specific, quantitative analyses of environmental impacts on mosquito-borne disease ecology, like this study, are needed to provide policy makers with a scientific reference to guide the formation of effective transmission intervention strategies.},
}
@article {pmid31810703,
year = {2019},
author = {Zarrineh, N and Abbaspour, KC and Holzkämper, A},
title = {Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on multiple ecosystem services in Western Switzerland.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {135212},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135212},
pmid = {31810703},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Climate change can affect the provision of ecosystem services in various ways. In this study, we provide an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystem services, considering uncertainties in both climate projection and model parameterization. The SWAT model was used to evaluate the impacts on water regulation, freshwater, food, and erosion regulation services for the Broye catchment in Western Switzerland. Downscaled EURO-CORDEX projections were used for three periods of thirty years: base climate (1986-2015), near future (2028-2057), and far future (2070-2099). Results reveal that in the far future, low flow is likely to decrease in summer by 77% and increase in winter by 65%, while peak flow may decrease in summer by 19% and increase in winter by 26%. Reduction in summer precipitation reduces nitrate leaching by 25%; however, nitrate concentrations are projected to increase by 14% due to reduced dilution. An increase in winter precipitation increases nitrate leaching by 44%, leading to an increase of nitrate concentration by 11% despite increasing discharge and dilution. Yields of maize and winter wheat are projected to increase in the near future but decrease in the far future because of increasing water and nutrient stress. Average grassland productivity is projected to benefit from climate change in both future periods due to the extended growing season. This increase in productivity benefits erosion regulation as better soil cover helps to decrease soil loss in winter by 5% in the far future. We conclude that water regulation, freshwater and food services will be negatively affected by climate change. Hence, agricultural management needs to be adapted to reduce negative impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and to utilize emerging production potentials. Our findings highlight the need for further studies of potentials to improve nutrient and water management under future climate conditions.},
}
@article {pmid31810671,
year = {2019},
author = {Sobuj, N and Virjamo, V and Nissinen, K and Sivadasan, U and Mehtätalo, L and Nybakken, L and Peltola, H and Julkunen-Tiitto, R},
title = {Responses in growth and phenolics accumulation to lateral bud removal in male and female saplings of Populus tremula (L.) under simulated climate change.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {135462},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135462},
pmid = {31810671},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {The responses in growth and defense after tissue damage are highly variable in plants depending on species, damaged-tissue type and the intensity of damage. The prevailing abiotic conditions can also influence these responses. In this study, our aim was to examine how the removal of lateral vegetative buds affects the growth and accumulation of phenolics in saplings of the dioecious Populus tremula grown under simulated climate change. For three growing seasons, the saplings were grown under ambient conditions (control), elevated temperature (+2°C) and elevated UV radiation (30%) (UVB and UVA as its control), or a combination of these. In the fourth growing season, all saplings were grown under ambient conditions. The bud removal was performed twice - in summer and autumn - in the third year. The responses of growth and the accumulation of phenolics to the bud removal were measured at the end of the fourth growing season. Removal of 5% of the lateral buds resulted in higher leaf, stem and total plant biomass in both sexes of P. tremula saplings, compared to intact plants. The effects were greater in the temperature-treated plants, especially in the temperature-treated females. The concentrations of flavonoids and condensed tannins were higher in the bud-removed individuals. The concentration of condensed tannins was also higher in the males than in the females, opposite to the concentration of phenolic acids. There was no significant interaction between bud removal and UVB treatment on either growth or phenolics. Our results suggest that plants can allocate resources to both growth and defense simultaneously in response to tissue loss, and that global warming can modify the responses to some extent.},
}
@article {pmid31808079,
year = {2019},
author = {Wang, L and Zhang, F and Fu, S and Shi, X and Chen, Y and Jagirani, MD and Zeng, C},
title = {Assessment of soil erosion risk and its response to climate change in the mid-Yarlung Tsangpo River region.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06738-y},
pmid = {31808079},
issn = {1614-7499},
support = {2019QZKK0203//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program/ ; No.41771090//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No.41571274//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; XDA20060202//&quot;Strategic Priority Research Program&quot; of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; },
abstract = {Soil erosion is sensitive to climate change, especially in high mountain areas. The Tibetan Plateau has experienced dramatic land surface environment changes under the impact of climate change during the last decades. In this study, we focused on the mid-Yarlung Tsangpo River (MYZ River) located in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was applied to assess soil erosion risk. To increase its applicability to high mountain areas with longer periods of snowfall, snowmelt runoff erosivity was considered in addition to rainfall erosivity. Results revealed that soil erosion of the MYZ River region was of a moderate grade with an average soil erosion rate of 29.1 t ha-1 year-1 and most serious erosion in wet and cold years. Soil erosion rate in the MYZ River region showed a decreasing trend of - 1.14% year-1 due to the precipitation, temperature, and vegetation changes from 2001 to 2015, with decreasing precipitation being the most important factor. Increasing precipitation and temperature would lead to increasing soil erosion risk in ~ 2050 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and RUSLE models. It is clear that soil erosion in high mountain areas greatly depends on climate state and attentions should be paid to address soil erosion problem in the future.},
}
@article {pmid31807715,
year = {2019},
author = {Pugnaire, FI and Morillo, JA and Peñuelas, J and Reich, PB and Bardgett, RD and Gaxiola, A and Wardle, DA and van der Putten, WH},
title = {Climate change effects on plant-soil feedbacks and consequences for biodiversity and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems.},
journal = {Science advances},
volume = {5},
number = {11},
pages = {eaaz1834},
pmid = {31807715},
issn = {2375-2548},
abstract = {Plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) are interactions among plants, soil organisms, and abiotic soil conditions that influence plant performance, plant species diversity, and community structure, ultimately driving ecosystem processes. We review how climate change will alter PSFs and their potential consequences for ecosystem functioning. Climate change influences PSFs through the performance of interacting species and altered community composition resulting from changes in species distributions. Climate change thus affects plant inputs into the soil subsystem via litter and rhizodeposits and alters the composition of the living plant roots with which mutualistic symbionts, decomposers, and their natural enemies interact. Many of these plant-soil interactions are species-specific and are greatly affected by temperature, moisture, and other climate-related factors. We make a number of predictions concerning climate change effects on PSFs and consequences for vegetation-soil-climate feedbacks while acknowledging that they may be context-dependent, spatially heterogeneous, and temporally variable.},
}
@article {pmid31807714,
year = {2019},
author = {Cámara-Leret, R and Raes, N and Roehrdanz, P and De Fretes, Y and Heatubun, CD and Roeble, L and Schuiteman, A and van Welzen, PC and Hannah, L},
title = {Climate change threatens New Guinea's biocultural heritage.},
journal = {Science advances},
volume = {5},
number = {11},
pages = {eaaz1455},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaz1455},
pmid = {31807714},
issn = {2375-2548},
abstract = {New Guinea is the most biologically and linguistically diverse tropical island on Earth, yet the potential impacts of climate change on its biocultural heritage remain unknown. Analyzing 2353 endemic plant species distributions, we find that 63% of species are expected to have smaller geographic ranges by 2070. As a result, ecoregions may have an average of -70 ± 40 fewer species by 2070. Species with future geographic range contractions include 720 endemic plant species that are used by indigenous people, and we find that these will decrease in 80% of New Guinea's 1030 language areas, with losses of up to 94 species per language area. To mitigate the threats of climate change on the flora, we identify priority sites for protected area expansion that can jointly maximize biodiversity and useful plant conservation.},
}
@article {pmid31807697,
year = {2019},
author = {Thiault, L and Mora, C and Cinner, JE and Cheung, WWL and Graham, NAJ and Januchowski-Hartley, FA and Mouillot, D and Sumaila, UR and Claudet, J},
title = {Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries.},
journal = {Science advances},
volume = {5},
number = {11},
pages = {eaaw9976},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaw9976},
pmid = {31807697},
issn = {2375-2548},
abstract = {Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a &quot;business-as-usual&quot; emission scenario, ~90% of the world's population-most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries-are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries-including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers-would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies' vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.},
}
@article {pmid31806339,
year = {2019},
author = {López-Dóriga, U and Jiménez, JA and Bisaro, A and Hinkel, J},
title = {Financing and implementation of adaptation measures to climate change along the Spanish coast.},
journal = {The Science of the total environment},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {135685},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135685},
pmid = {31806339},
issn = {1879-1026},
abstract = {Understanding how we are adapting to climate change in coastal areas is an essential issue in the long-term coastal planning. While most of existing studies focus on mapping the current state of adaptation plans, there is a significant lack of studies on the current implementation of adaptation strategies. This study addresses this challenge by assessing how coastal adaptation is being financed and implemented in Spain. In the absence of a detailed roadmap for implementing the Spanish Strategy for Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change, we have analysed how adaptation has been and is currently being funded; which the rationale for investments along the territory is; how adaptation investments compare to regular coastal protection costs; and assessed when implemented measures are really adaptation ones. Our results show that the financing source clearly conditions the type of measures implemented, with those funded under the Environment Promotion Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (PIMA Adapta initiative) being dominated by classical coastal engineering actions, whereas ecosystem-related actions are mostly funded under the LIFE programme. In territorial terms, the Mediterranean coastal regions present the most important problems under current conditions and attract most of the funding. Most of the funded actions have been designed to solve current coastal problems, and although they indirectly contribute to adaptation by improving the coastal base status, they are not specifically designed for climate change. This misuse of the concept of adaptation measure will tend to the society to be overconfident about adopted actions whereas we are not progressing to real adaptation. To overcome this risk, it is necessary to have a clear roadmap for implementing adaptation measures together a proper financing structure.},
}
@article {pmid31804812,
year = {2019},
author = {Jones, C and Gilbert, PJ and Stamford, L},
title = {Assessing the Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Stationary Energy Storage for Electricity Grid Services.},
journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b06231},
pmid = {31804812},
issn = {1520-5851},
abstract = {This paper presents a life cycle assessment for three stationary energy storage systems (ESS); lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) and liquid air energy storage (LAES). The global warming potential (GWP) is assessed in relation to uncertainties in usage of the storage, use-phase energy input, cell replacement and round trip efficiency parameters. Relative climate change mitigation potential in comparison with equivalent diesel-electric and natural gas generation is discussed, as is the effect of recycling at end of life. With variations in input electricity source, recycling and efficiency, the life cycle global warming potential for LFP ranges from 164 kg CO2eq/MWh to 440 kg CO¬2eq/MWh; for VRFB from 102 kg CO2eq/MWh to 443 kg CO2eq/MWh; and for LAES from 48 kg CO-2eq/MWh to 203 kg CO2eq/MWh. In all cases there are climate change mitigation benefits compared to fossil fuel alternatives. Use of renewable energy for charging and operation, ease of component recycling/reuse and reduced parts replacement reduce the GWP. The climate change mitigation potential of ESS for electricity grid operation is further enhanced by increasing use of the storage assets. Recycling of ESS is shown to reduce terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication and particulate matter impacts. Reduced ozone depletion potential for VRFB and LFP can be achieved by reducing nafion and PVDF components respectively.},
}
@article {pmid31804736,
year = {2019},
author = {Brambilla, M and Scridel, D and Bazzi, G and Ilahiane, L and Iemma, A and Pedrini, P and Bassi, E and Bionda, R and Marchesi, L and Genero, F and Teufelbauer, N and Probst, R and Vrezec, A and Kmecl, P and Mihelič, T and Bogliani, G and Schmid, H and Assandri, G and Pontarini, R and Braunisch, V and Arlettaz, R and Chamberlain, D},
title = {Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co-occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14953},
pmid = {31804736},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole-nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate, that show a range of well-understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N-mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild-levels, as the potential area of range-overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate-sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range-overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.},
}
@article {pmid31804460,
year = {2019},
author = {Jones, SM and Hoggett, M and Greene, SE and Dunkley Jones, T},
title = {Large Igneous Province thermogenic greenhouse gas flux could have initiated Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum climate change.},
journal = {Nature communications},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {5547},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12957-1},
pmid = {31804460},
issn = {2041-1723},
support = {NE/1369185//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; NE/L011050//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; },
abstract = {Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) are associated with the largest climate perturbations in Earth's history. The North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) and Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) constitute an exemplar of this association. As yet we have no means to reconstruct the pacing of LIP greenhouse gas emissions for comparison with climate records at millennial resolution. Here, we calculate carbon-based greenhouse gas fluxes associated with the NAIP at sub-millennial resolution by linking measurements of the mantle convection process that generated NAIP magma with observations of the individual geological structures that controlled gas emissions in a Monte Carlo framework. These simulations predict peak emissions flux of 0.2-0.5 PgC yr-1 and show that the NAIP could have initiated PETM climate change. This is the first predictive model of carbon emissions flux from any proposed PETM carbon source that is directly constrained by observations of the geological structures that controlled the emissions.},
}
@article {pmid31802576,
year = {2019},
author = {du Pontavice, H and Gascuel, D and Reygondeau, G and Maureaud, A and Cheung, WWL},
title = {Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs.},
journal = {Global change biology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14944},
pmid = {31802576},
issn = {1365-2486},
abstract = {Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency and the biomass residence time in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean trophic transfer efficiency in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2,100 under the 'no effective mitigation' Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), while biomass residence time between trophic level 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 year on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the trophic transfer efficiencies and biomass residence times may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean trophic transfer efficiency and biomass residence time will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.},
}
@article {pmid31802341,
year = {2019},
author = {Fahad, S and Wang, J},
title = {Climate change, vulnerability, and its impacts in rural Pakistan: a review.},
journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06878-1},
pmid = {31802341},
issn = {1614-7499},
abstract = {Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries especially in Southeast Asia experiencing floods and droughts as a result of climate change. Variation in climate adversely affects agriculture sector, ground water, nutrition, soil quality and soil organic matter, health conditions, and poverty. The main purpose of this study is to review the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies used at farm level in response to variation in temperature and precipitation. As per literature, Pakistani farmers adopt several adaptation strategies in response to climate change, like change in fertilizer, change in crop variety, pesticide, seed quality, water storage, farm diversification, plant shade trees, irrigation practices, off-farm activities, permanent and temporary migration, and selling of assets. Literature also showed that farmers living wetland area perceived less variation in climate than farm households living in dry area.},
}
@article {pmid31801371,
year = {2019},
author = {Binns, C and Low, WY},
title = {Time to Get on With It: Climate Change Needs Public Health Action Now.},
journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health},
volume = {31},
number = {7},
pages = {581-583},
doi = {10.1177/1010539519884472},
pmid = {31801371},
issn = {1941-2479},
}
@article {pmid31800577,
year = {2019},
author = {Weniger, GC and de Andrés-Herrero, M and Bolin, V and Kehl, M and Otto, T and Potì, A and Tafelmaier, Y},
title = {Late Glacial rapid climate change and human response in the Westernmost Mediterranean (Iberia and Morocco).},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {14},
number = {12},
pages = {e0225049},
pmid = {31800577},
issn = {1932-6203},
abstract = {This paper investigates the correlation between climate, environment and human land use in the Westernmost Mediterranean on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar during the Late Glacial. Using a multi-proxy approach on a sample of 300 sites from the Solutrean and Magdalenian of the Iberian Peninsula and from the Iberomaurusian in Morocco, we find evidence for significant changes in settlement patterns and site density after the Last Glacial Maximum. In Southern Iberia, during Heinrich Stadial 1, hyperarid zones expanded drastically from the south-eastern coast to the West through the Interior. This aridification process heavily affected Magdalenian settlement in the South and caused a strong decline of hunter-gatherer population. Southern Iberia during Heinrich Stadial 1 turned out to be a high-risk environment when compared to Northern Iberia. At the same time, the Late Iberomaurusian of Morocco, although considered to be situated in a high-risk environment as well, experiences an increase of sites and expansion of settlement area.},
}
@article {pmid31800170,
year = {2019},
author = {Weeks, BC and Willard, DE and Zimova, M and Ellis, AA and Witynski, ML and Hennen, M and Winger, BM},
title = {Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds.},
journal = {Ecology letters},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1111/ele.13434},
pmid = {31800170},
issn = {1461-0248},
abstract = {Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are predicted to cause reductions in body size, a key determinant of animal physiology and ecology. Using a four-decade specimen series of 70 716 individuals of 52 North American migratory bird species, we demonstrate that increasing annual summer temperature over the 40-year period predicts consistent reductions in body size across these diverse taxa. Concurrently, wing length - an index of body shape that impacts numerous aspects of avian ecology and behaviour - has consistently increased across species. Our findings suggest that warming-induced body size reduction is a general response to climate change, and reveal a similarly consistent and unexpected shift in body shape. We hypothesise that increasing wing length represents a compensatory adaptation to maintain migration as reductions in body size have increased the metabolic cost of flight. An improved understanding of warming-induced morphological changes is important for predicting biotic responses to global change.},
}
@article {pmid31797166,
year = {2019},
author = {Ferreira, E and Kalliola, R and Ruokolainen, K},
title = {Bamboo, climate change and forest use: A critical combination for southwestern Amazonian forests?.},
journal = {Ambio},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1007/s13280-019-01299-3},
pmid = {31797166},
issn = {1654-7209},
support = {296406//Academy of Finland/ ; },
abstract = {About 160 000 km2 of forests in the border zone between Brazil and Peru are dominated by semi-scandent bamboos (Guadua spp.). We argue that both predicted decreased precipitation during the dry season and widespread anthropogenic disturbances will significantly increase the distribution and biomass of bamboos in the area. Seasonal dryness favours the growth of evergreen bamboos in relation to trees that shed their leaves during the dry season. Disturbance can be beneficial for the bamboo because, as a clonal plant, it is often able to recover more rapidly than trees. It also withstands dry season better than many trees. The bamboo life cycle ends in a mass mortality event every 28 years, producing potential fuel for a forest fire. Presently, natural forest fires hardly exist in the area. However, in the projected future climate with more pronounced dry season and with increased fuel load after bamboo die-off events the forests may start to catch fire that has escaped from inhabited areas or even started naturally. Fires can kill trees, thus further increasing the fuel load of the forest. As a result, the landscape may start to convert to a savanna ecosystem.},
}
@article {pmid31797108,
year = {2019},
author = {Zhu, S and Ptak, M and Choiński, A and Wu, S},
title = {Exploring and quantifying the impact of climate change on surface water temperature of a high mountain lake in Central Europe.},
journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment},
volume = {192},
number = {1},
pages = {7},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7994-y},
pmid = {31797108},
issn = {1573-2959},
support = {2018YFC0407200//the National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 2018M640499//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; 201910//Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research Scientific Development Fund/ ; },
abstract = {Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969-2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 °C). Using the 2009-2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about + 1.29 °C and + 2.64 °C with air temperature increases of + 2 °C and + 4 °C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem.},
}
@article {pmid31796258,
year = {2019},
author = {Shrestha, S and Gunawardana, SK and Piman, T and Babel, MS},
title = {Assessment of the impact of climate change and mining activities on streamflow and selected metal's loading in the Chindwin River, Myanmar.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {108942},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108942},
pmid = {31796258},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {The rapid expansion in mining activities is deteriorating the water quality in the Chindwin River of Myanmar. In addition, climate change may also aggravate this situation in future. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a connection between hydrology, mining area, heavy metal loading, and climate change in the Chindwin River. The hydrology of the upper Chindwin basin was modelled using SHETRAN hydrological model. Geochemical model PHREEQC was utilised to conduct speciation and saturation indexes modelling along the river in order to quantify the precipitated minerals along the river. Thereafter a regression relationship along with LOADEST model was used to quantify the heavy metal loads. Future climate was projected using four RCM's namely ACCESS1-CSIRO-CCAM, CCSM4-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM. Future discharges at water quality monitoring stations were simulated using the averaged ensembles. Finally, the heavy metal loading under future climate scenarios were analysed. Results indicate that climate change is likely to reduce future discharges by 3.4%-36.5% in all stations except in the Mokekalae station which shows 1.3%-9.4% increase in the near future discharges. Also, the projected metal loading under future climate conditions shows a decreasing pattern which is similar to the projected discharge pattern. In both baseline and future climate conditions, the area between stations Naung Po Aung and Uru downstream show the highest load effluent for both arsenic and mercury while the area between stations Uru downstream and Mokekalae show the highest load of iron effluent. Although future heavy metal loadings are expected to decrease, mining activities should be carefully monitored, since they discharge a large amount of toxic heavy metal loadings into the Chindwin River which is also expected to suffer a decrease streamflow in future.},
}
@article {pmid31796257,
year = {2019},
author = {Elshkaki, A and Lei, S and Chen, WQ},
title = {Material-energy-water nexus: Modelling the long term implications of aluminium demand and supply on global climate change up to 2050.},
journal = {Environmental research},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {108964},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108964},
pmid = {31796257},
issn = {1096-0953},
abstract = {Aluminium is a widely used metal and one of the most energy intensive industries, and therefore it has been included in most energy models and scenarios. Material demand and supply are broadly linked to energy, water, and climate change. In this study, we develop four global and regional process based scenarios for the material-energy-water nexus combined with CO2 emissions and applied to aluminium. The scenarios used in this study are; Market World (MW), Toward Resilience (TR), Security Foremost (SF), and Equitability World (EW). The results indicate that global CO2 emissions are expected to increase as a result of increasing aluminium demand, although aluminium secondary supply, energy efficiency, and cleaner energy supply technologies are expected to increase in the next 30 years. Policy and sustainability (TR and EW) scenarios are ultimately the best in terms of global climate change since the two scenarios have the lowest CO2 emissions, although they also have the highest aluminium demand and energy. It is therefore necessary to implement cleaner energy supply and energy efficiency technologies at high rates in aluminium industry to mitigate possible increase in CO2 emissions.},
}
@article {pmid31795636,
year = {2019},
author = {Wang, Y and Levis, JW and Barlaz, MA},
title = {An Assessment of the Dynamic Global Warming Impact Associated with Long-Term Emissions from Landfills.},
journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b04066},
pmid = {31795636},
issn = {1520-5851},
abstract = {Landfills are a major contributor of anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Since the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with landfilling waste can occur over decades to centuries, the standard static approach to estimating global warming impacts may not accurately represent the global warming impacts of landfills. The objective of this study is to assess the implications of using 100-yr and 20-yr static and dynamic global warming potential (GWP) approaches to estimate the global warming impacts from municipal solid waste landfills. A life-cycle model was developed to estimate GHG emissions for three gas treatment cases (passive venting, flare, CH4 conversion to electricity) and four decay rates. For the 100-yr GWP, other model uncertainties (e.g., static GWP values, decay rate, moisture content, or gas collection efficiency) generally had a larger effect on the estimated global warming impact than the choice of static versus dynamic GWP methods. This shows that when comparing single-point GWP values, the choice of static versus dynamic is relatively unimportant for most landfills. While dynamic GWPs consider temporal variance and provide useful estimates for the warming over a set time horizon, for most comparative analyses, static values provide reasonable bounds for the actual 100-yr warming impact.},
}
@article {pmid31793168,
year = {2019},
author = {Pu, J and Wang, Z and Chung, H},
title = {REVIEW: Climate change and the genetics of insecticide resistance.},
journal = {Pest management science},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1002/ps.5700},
pmid = {31793168},
issn = {1526-4998},
abstract = {Changes in global temperature and humidity as a result of climate change are producing rapid evolutionary changes in many animal species, including agricultural pests and disease vectors, leading to changes in allele frequencies of genes involved in thermotolerance and desiccation resistance. As some of these genes have pleiotropic effects on insecticide resistance, climate change is likely to affect insecticide resistance in the field. In this review, we discuss how the interactions between adaptation to climate change and resistance to insecticides can affect insecticide resistance in the field using examples in phytophagous and hematophagous pest insects, focusing on the effects of increased temperature and increased aridity. We then use the detailed genetic and mechanistic studies in the model insect, Drosophila melanogaster, to explain the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon. We suggest that tradeoffs or facilitation between adaptation to climate change and resistance to insecticides can alter insecticide resistance allele frequencies in the field. The dynamics of these interactions will need to be considered when managing agricultural pests and disease vectors in a changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
}
@article {pmid31792420,
year = {2019},
author = {Zemp, M},
title = {Glacier monitoring tracks progress in limiting climate change.},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {576},
number = {7785},
pages = {39},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-03700-3},
pmid = {31792420},
issn = {1476-4687},
}
@article {pmid31792174,
year = {2019},
author = {McMahon, KW and Michelson, CI and Hart, T and McCarthy, MD and Patterson, WP and Polito, MJ},
title = {Divergent trophic responses of sympatric penguin species to historic anthropogenic exploitation and recent climate change.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {116},
number = {51},
pages = {25721-25727},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1913093116},
pmid = {31792174},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {The Southern Ocean is in an era of significant change. Historic overharvesting of marine mammals and recent climatic warming have cascading impacts on resource availability and, in turn, ecosystem structure and function. We examined trophic responses of sympatric chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) penguins to nearly 100 y of shared environmental change in the Antarctic Peninsula region using compound-specific stable isotope analyses of museum specimens. A century ago, gentoo penguins fed almost exclusively on low-trophic level prey, such as krill, during the peak of historic overexploitation of marine mammals, which was hypothesized to have resulted in a krill surplus. In the last 40 y, gentoo penguin trophic position has increased a full level as krill declined in response to recent climate change, increased competition from recovering marine mammal populations, and the development of a commercial krill fishery. A shifting isotopic baseline supporting gentoo penguins suggests a concurrent increase in coastal productivity over this time. In contrast, chinstrap penguins exhibited no change in trophic position, despite variation in krill availability over the past century. The specialized foraging niche of chinstrap penguins likely renders them more sensitive to changes in krill availability, relative to gentoo penguins, as evinced by their declining population trends in the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 40 y. Over the next century, similarly divergent trophic and population responses are likely to occur among Antarctic krill predators if climate change and other anthropogenic impacts continue to favor generalist over specialist species.},
}
@article {pmid31792170,
year = {2019},
author = {Palmer, T and Stevens, B},
title = {The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
volume = {116},
number = {49},
pages = {24390-24395},
pmid = {31792170},
issn = {1091-6490},
abstract = {Given the slow unfolding of what may become catastrophic changes to Earth's climate, many are understandably distraught by failures of public policy to rise to the magnitude of the challenge. Few in the science community would think to question the scientific response to the unfolding changes. However, is the science community continuing to do its part to the best of its ability? In the domains where we can have the greatest influence, is the scientific community articulating a vision commensurate with the challenges posed by climate change? We think not.},
}
@article {pmid31789339,
year = {2019},
author = {Starr, SM and McIntyre, NE},
title = {Effects of Water Temperature Under Projected Climate Change on the Development and Survival of Enallagma civile (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).},
journal = {Environmental entomology},
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
doi = {10.1093/ee/nvz138},
pmid = {31789339},
issn = {1938-2936},
abstract = {Current climate projections for the Great Plains of North America indicate markedly increased air temperatures by the end of the current century. Because the Great Plains contains >80,000 intermittent wetlands that serve as irreplaceable wildlife habitat, this projected warming may have profound effects throughout a continental-scale trophic network. However, little research has been done to determine how projected warming may affect the growth, development, or survival of even common species in this region. We conducted laboratory warming experiments, using an abundant amphibious predatory insect, Enallagma civile (Hagen, 1861), as a model organism, to determine whether projected warming may affect development or survival. Eggs were collected and reared under four water temperature regimes representing current (26°C) and projected future conditions (32, 38, and 41°C). Nymph body size after each molt, development rate, and deaths were recorded. Elevated water temperatures were found to significantly affect the survivorship of E. civile eggs and nymphs as well as adult body size at emergence: an increase in temperature incurred a decrease in survival and size. Nymphs in the two hotter treatments were smaller and had low survivorship whereas individuals in the cooler temperatures generally survived to adulthood and were larger. Nymphs reared at 32°C experienced accelerated ontogenetic development compared with the other temperatures, going from egg to adult in 26 d. Projected elevated temperatures may, thus, be both advantageous and detrimental, causing concern for aquatic invertebrates in this region in the future.},
}
@article {pmid31787944,
year = {2019},
author = {Gasperini, AM and Rodriguez-Sixtos, A and Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Garcia-Cela, E and Medina, A and Magan, N},
title = {Resilience of Biocontrol for Aflatoxin Minimization Strategies: Climate Change Abiotic Factors May Affect Control in Non-GM and GM-Maize Cultivars.},
journal = {Frontiers in microbiology},
volume = {10},
number = {},
pages = {2525},
doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2019.02525},
pmid = {31787944},
issn = {1664-302X},
abstract = {There has been significant interest in the development of formulations of non-toxigenic strains of Aspergillus flavus for control of toxigenic strains to reduce the aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) contamination of maize. In the future, climate change (CC) abiotic conditions of temperature (+2-4°C), CO2 (existing levels of 400 vs. 800-1,200 ppb), and drought stress will impact on the agronomy and control of pests and diseases. This study has examined (1) the effect of two-way interacting factors of water activity × temperature on colonization and AFB1 contamination of maize cobs of different ripening ages; (2) the effect of non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus (50:50 inoculum ratio) on relative control of toxigenic A. flavus and AFB1 contamination of ripening cobs; (3) post-harvest control of AFB1 by non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus in non-GM and isogenic GM maize cultivars using the same inoculum ratio; and (4) the impact of three-way interacting CC factors on relative control of AFB1 in maize cobs pre-harvest and in stored non-GM/GM cultivars. Pre-harvest colonization and AFB1 production by a toxigenic A. flavus strain was conserved at 37°C when compared with 30°C, at the three ripening stages of cob development examined: milk ripe (R3), dough (R4), and dent (R5). However, pre-harvest biocontrol with a non-toxigenic strain was only effective at the R3 and R4 stages and not at the R5 stage. This was supported by relative expression of the aflR regulatory biosynthetic gene in the different treatments. When exposed to three-way interacting CC factors for control of AFB1 pre-harvest, the non-toxigenic A. flavus strain was effective at R3 and £4 stages but not at the R5 stage. Post-harvest storage of non-GM and GM cultivars showed that control was achievable at 30°C, with slightly better control in GM-cultivars in terms of the overall inhibition of AFB1 production. However, in stored maize, the non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus had conserved biocontrol of AFB1 contamination, especially in the GM-maize cultivars under three-way interacting CC conditions (37°C × 1,000 ppm CO2 and drought stress). This was supported by the relative expression of the aflR gene in these treatments. This study suggests that the choice of the biocontrol strains, for pre- or post-harvest control, needs to take into account their resilience in CC-related abiotic conditions to ensure that control of AFB1 contamination can be conserved.},
}
@article {pmid31787839,
year = {2019},
author = {Kipling, RP and Topp, CFE and Bannink, A and Bartley, DJ and Blanco-Penedo, I and Cortignani, R and Del Prado, A and Dono, G and Faverdin, P and Graux, AI and Hutchings, NJ and Lauwers, L and Özkan Gülzari, Ş and Reidsma, P and Rolinski, S and Ruiz-Ramos, M and Sandars, DL and Sándor, R and Schönhart, M and Seddaiu, G and van Middelkoop, J and Shrestha, S and Weindl, I and Eory, V},
title = {To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?.},
journal = {Environmental modelling &amp; software : with environment data news},
volume = {120},
number = {},
pages = {104492},
pmid = {31787839},
issn = {1364-8152},
abstract = {Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.},
}
@article {pmid31787795,
year = {2019},
author = {Mabon, L and Kondo, K and Kanekiyo, H and Hayabuchi, Y and Yamaguchi, A},
title = {Fukuoka: Adapting to climate change through urban green space and the built environment?.},
journal = {Cities (Lo