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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 22 May 2019 at 01:47 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-05-21

de Oliveira UDR, Gomes PB, Silva Cordeiro RT, et al (2019)

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of an endangered Brazilian endemic coral: Discussion about deep sea refugia.

PloS one, 14(5):e0211171 pii:PONE-D-18-36857.

Climate and environmental conditions are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. When changes in such conditions occur, their effects on distribution can be predicted through species distribution models, anticipating suitable habitats for the subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most endangered Brazilian endemic reef-building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. Herein, species distribution models were used to determine the present and future potential habitats for M. harttii. Estimations were made through the maximum entropy approach, predicting suitable habitat losses and gains by the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, species records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The best models were chosen according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and evaluated through the partial ROC (AUCratio), a new approach which uses independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting potential habitat areas for the species. Future projections were made using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2100, with different levels of greenhouse gas emission. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to model the Future Potential Habitat (FPH) of M. harttii in two different scenarios: stabilization of emissions (RCP 4.5) and increase of emissions (RCP 8.5). According to the results, shallow waters to the south of the study area concentrate most of the current potential habitats for the species. However, in future scenarios, there was a loss of suitable areas in relation to the Current Potential Habitat (RCP 4.5 46% and RCP 8.5 59%), whereas there is a southward shift of the suitable areas. In all scenarios of FPH, the temperature was the variable with the greatest contribution to the models (> 35%), followed by the current velocity (> 33%) and bathymetry (>29%). In contrast, there is an increase of deep (50-75 m) suitable areas FPH scenarios, mainly in the southern portion of its distribution, at Abrolhos Bank (off Espirito Santo State). These deeper sites might serve as refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, the deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policies for Brazilian marine conservation, especially the Abrolhos Bank, due to its importance for M. harttii.

RevDate: 2019-05-21

Azzurro E, Sbragaglia V, Cerri J, et al (2019)

Climate change, biological invasions, and the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes: A large-scale survey based on local ecological knowledge.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small-scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as "new" or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm-adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large-scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.

RevDate: 2019-05-21

Gong H, Liu H, Jiao F, et al (2019)

Pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the future distribution of Spartina alterniflora along the Chinese coast.

Ecology and evolution, 9(9):5380-5391 pii:ECE35129.

Aim: Global change seriously threatens the salt marsh ecosystem, while it remains unclear how S. will respond to climate change and sea level rise. Here, we investigated interactions among variables and identified the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and their interactions on the distribution of Spartina alterniflora.

Location: Northern Chinese coast and Southern Chinese coast.

Taxon: Spartina alterniflora Loisel.

Methods: With global sensitivity analysis, we determined interactions among variables and their relative importance to the distribution of S. alterniflora. Integrating the Venn's four-set diagram, we built ecological niche models under current and three future scenarios to identify pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the distribution of S. alterniflora.

Results: Mean diurnal range (Bio02) and Elevation were the two most critical variables controlling the distribution of S. alterniflora on the Chinese coast, and interactions among variables of the northern coast were much greater than that of the southern coast. Habitats change was mainly caused by pure effects of climate change, except habitats reduction on the southern coast. Pure effects of sea level rise were low, but it can influence habitats change through shared and coupling effects from complex interactions with climate change. Interactions of climate change and sea level rise can drive habitats change, and the changed habitats caused by shared and coupling effects were mainly distributed the areas near the landward side.

Main conclusions: Our research suggests paying attention to interactions among variables when calculating the relative importance of explanatory variables. Identifying pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise for the distribution of S. alterniflora will provide scientific references for assessing the risk of similar coastal species.

RevDate: 2019-05-21

Jia SW, ML Zhang (2019)

Pleistocene climate change and phylogeographic structure of the Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae) in the northwest China: Evidence from plastid DNA, ITS sequences, and Microsatellite.

Ecology and evolution, 9(9):5219-5235 pii:ECE35113.

Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB-psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: hS = 0.330, hT = 0.866; ITS: hS = 0.458, hT = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions-Tarim Basin, the central regions-Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions-Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species.

RevDate: 2019-05-20

Luo X, Liang Y, He HS, et al (2019)

[Effects of climate change, fire and silvicultural management on ecological resilience of typical cold-temperate forests in China.].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(5):1699-1712.

Ecological resilience is characterized by the recovery capacity of forest ecosystem from a status affected by external disturbance to a stable status, which is one of the important targets for sustainable development of forests. Ecological resilience is sensitive to external factors, such as climate change, forest fire, and silvicutural management at large scales. Understanding the effects of those factors on ecological resilience is important for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we calculated ecological resilience with indicators including forest structure, composition and function. We used a landscape model LANDIS PRO to evaluate the effects of climate change, climate-induced fire, and silvicultural management on ecological resilience in boreal forests. We also evaluated whether the current thinning treatment could be implemented under the scenarios of climate change. The results showed that the initialized stand density and basal area from the year 2000 could represent the real forest landscape in year 2000, with no significant difference between the simulated landscape and the forest inventory data in the year 2010 at landscape scale. The results of simulated fire disturbance were consistent with the results from the field inventories in burned areas. The fire module parameters set adequately represented the current fire regimes in model simulation. The ecological resilience could increase by 15.7%-40.8% at landscape scale when fire intensity increased by 30%, whereas the ecological resilience decreased by 4.4%-24.6% when fire intensity increased by 200%. At the short and medium term, the effects of increased fire on forest ecological resilience were greater than that of climate change. Compared to the current base scenario, forest ecological resilience under B1 climate with fire intensity increased by 30% scenario and A2 climate with fire intensity increased by 200% scenario fluctuated in the ranges of -15.9%-38.9% and -60.4%-34.8% in the whole simulation period at landscape scale. Compared to no harvesting scenario, the current thinning strategy would decrease the ecological resilience at landscape scale under both B1 and A2 scenarios in all simulated periods. Under the scenario of B1 climate with 30% increases of fire intensity, no silvicultural management would be needed in the whole simulation period at landscape scale, whereas medium and high intensity of silvicultural management were suggested under the scenario of A2 climate with 200% increase of fire intensity.

RevDate: 2019-05-20

Liu YG, Yuan FH, Wang AZ, et al (2019)

[Characteristics of climate change in Changbai Mountain ecological functional area, Northeast China.].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(5):1503-1512.

We integrated the meteorological records from 36 national weather stations and CN05.1 gridded daily observation dataset to analyze the climate change characteristics of Changbai Mountain eco-functional area. Linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall mutation test, cumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of temperature (annual temperature, seasonal temperature, extreme temperature), moisture (annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation, relative humidity), radiation (sunshine duration, sunshine percentage) and wind speed from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that, during 1961-2016, the temperature of this area increased, the radiation and wind speed decreased, and the precipitation varied periodically. Specifically, winter temperature [0.45 ℃·(10 a)-1] and the lowest temperature [0.74 ℃·(10 a)-1] significantly increased. The mean annual wind speed significantly decreased [-0.21 m·s-1·(10 a)-1]. No abrupt climate change was observed. The annual precipitation days decreased considerably [-7.01 d·(10 a)-1], which was different from the climate change pattern of Northeast China. The annual precipitation trend coefficient of this area was 16.06 mm·(10 a)-1 , which could not be simply depicted by increase or decrease in trend. The precipitation change in this area was dominated by periodically patterns, and the period was 26 years and 3 years. Our results would be instructive to the regional ecological assessment, and the research on ecosystem responses to climate change and phenological changes.

RevDate: 2019-05-20

Bascompte J, García MB, Ortega R, et al (2019)

Mutualistic interactions reshuffle the effects of climate change on plants across the tree of life.

Science advances, 5(5):eaav2539 pii:aav2539.

Climatically induced local species extinctions may trigger coextinction cascades, thus driving many more species to extinction than originally predicted by species distribution models. Using seven pollination networks across Europe that include the phylogeny and life history traits of plants, we show a substantial variability across networks in climatically predicted plant extinction-and particularly the subsequent coextinction-rates, with much higher values in Mediterranean than Eurosiberian networks. While geographic location best predicts the probability of a plant species to be driven to extinction by climate change, subsequent coextinctions are best predicted by the local network of interactions. These coextinctions not only increase the total number of plant species being driven to extinction but also add a bias in the way the major taxonomic and functional groups are pruned.

RevDate: 2019-05-18

Azani N, Bruneau A, Wojciechowski MF, et al (2019)

Miocene climate change as a driving force for multiple origins of annual species in Astragalus (Fabaceae, Papilionoideae).

Molecular phylogenetics and evolution pii:S1055-7903(19)30130-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Astragalus, a highly diverse genus of flowering plants with its highest center of diversity in West Asia, is a classic example of rapid species-level radiation and adaptation to a diversity of habitats throughout the world. We examined the historical biogeography of Astragalus using molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction to understand how past climate changes, geographical patterns and transition in life history have provoked diversification of Astragalus. Our results suggest that Astragalus probably originated during the middle Miocene in West Asia, underwent rapid diversification, subsequently and repeatedly expanded its range in the Mediterranean region, and later to North America through West Europe. This distribution range was also extended toward central and eastern Asia from the Middle Miocene to Pleistocene. Several climatic and geological processes during the Miocene-Pliocene may be implicated in the diversification of the major Astragalus clades. In particular, the annual lineages, which are important elements in the Mediterranean flora of Africa and Europe and in the deserts of southwest to central Asia, have arisen in response to progressing aridity from the late Miocene onwards (between 8.6 Ma to 2.98 Ma). Diversification rate analyses indicate three rapid and recent diversification events, one at c. 11 Ma in the clade that groups most of the Astragalus s.s. (all except the Ophiocarpus sister lineage), one at c. 5 Ma in the crown group of the Hypoglottis clade, including herbaceous annual and perennial species, and the most recent one at c. 3 Ma in the spiny cushion forming Astracantha clade. Our study highlights the complexity of processes and factors shaping diversifications in Astragalus; a complex interaction among climatic modifications providing opportunities for diversification and likely coincident with the evolution of key morphological and physiological adaptations.

RevDate: 2019-05-17

Sarkar S, Butcher JB, Johnson TE, et al (2018)

Simulated Sensitivity of Urban Green Infrastructure Practices to Climate Change.

Earth interactions, 22(13):1-37.

Climate change is likely to alter the quantity and quality of urban stormwater, presenting a risk to water quality and public health. How might stormwater management practices need to change to address future climate? Answering requires understanding how management practices respond to climate forcing. Traditional "gray" stormwater design employs engineered structures, sized based on assumptions about future rainfall, which have limited flexibility once built. Green infrastructure (GI) uses vegetation, soil, and distributed structures to manage rainwater where it falls and may provide greater flexibility for adaptation. There is, however, uncertainty about how a warmer climate may affect performance of different types of GI. This study uses the hydrologic and biogeochemical watershed model, Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to investigate sensitivity of different GI practices to climate. Simulations examine 36 urban "archetypes" representing different development patterns (at the city block scale) of typical U.S. cities, eleven regional climatic settings, and a range of mid-21st century scenarios based on downscaled climate model output. Results suggest regionally variable effects of climate change on the performance of GI practices for water quantity, water quality, and carbon sequestration. GI is able to mitigate most projected future increases in surface runoff, while bioretention can mitigate increased nitrogen yield at nine of eleven sites. Simulated changes in carbon balance are small, while local evaporative cooling can be substantial. Given uncertainty in the local expression of future climate, infrastructure design should emphasize flexibility and robustness to a range of future conditions.

RevDate: 2019-05-17

Liu L, Guo Z, Huang G, et al (2019)

Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(10): pii:ijerph16101706.

As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021-2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012-2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021-2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.

RevDate: 2019-05-17

Lin B, J Zhu (2019)

The role of renewable energy technological innovation on climate change: Empirical evidence from China.

The Science of the total environment, 659:1505-1512.

To develop renewable energy as well as promote China's transition to a low-carbon economy, the government needs to pay attention to renewable energy technological innovation (RETI). Using China's provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, and regarding the CO2 emissions as the proxy of climate change, this paper identifies the relationship between RETI and CO2 emissions as well as seeks to confirm the role of RETI on climate change. The linear regression model confirms that the RETI has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. In addition, considering the disparities of energy structure, the impacts of RETI on CO2 emissions may be distinct. We, therefore, construct a panel threshold model by taking into account the distinct effect of RETI under different energy structure. We find that the effect of RETI on curbing CO2 emissions decreases with the rising of coal-dominated energy consumption structure but in contrast, this effect increases with the growing proportion of renewable energy generation. This paper provides new insight into the relationship between technological innovation and climate change. Based on these findings, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed.

RevDate: 2019-05-16

Ridel GM, García JG, Fernández MCR, et al (2018)

[The health sector in the face of disasters and climate change in CubaO setor da saúde diante de desastres e mudanças climáticas em Cuba].

Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health, 42:e24 pii:RPSP.2018.24.

Due to its impact on human health and its capacity to cause damage, disasters are one of the global problems that most concern the international community. However, and in spite of the efforts made by many health systems, the reduction of vulnerabilities and the lack of strategies to avoid or minimize risks have not received enough attention yet. As Cuba is located in an area of permanent danger of disasters, its health sector has accumulated considerable experience in the management of risks and in the assurance of less risky future scenarios, with active participation of the community and a planned and organized process to address the impact of climate change. This paper summarizes some of these experiences and describes the dangers, vulnerabilities, and risks of disasters in Cuba, its Civil Defense System, and planning and organization in the health sector for disaster reduction, as well as the main effects and challenges of climate change in the health system. Lessons learned and good practices support the key role of human resources to reduce vulnerabilities; the greatest challenges are to avoid or minimize risks, to advance research, to train professionals for climate change, and to optimize the organization of health systems and services in the country.

RevDate: 2019-05-16

Hutchins DA, Jansson JK, Remais JV, et al (2019)

Climate change microbiology - problems and perspectives.

Nature reviews. Microbiology, 17(6):391-396.

The signs of climate change are undeniable, and the inevitable impact for Earth and all its inhabitants is a serious concern. Ice is melting, sea levels are rising, biodiversity is declining, precipitation has increased, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases are alarmingly high, and extreme weather conditions are becoming increasingly common. But what role do microorganisms have in this global challenge? In this Viewpoint article, several experts in the field discuss the microbial contributions to climate change and consider the effects of global warming, extreme weather, flooding and other consequences of climate change on microbial communities in the ocean and soil, on host-microbiota interactions and on the global burden of infectious diseases and ecosystem processes, and they explore open questions and research needs.

RevDate: 2019-05-15

Yang Q, Zhang X, Almendinger JE, et al (2019)

Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 251:302-311 pii:S0269-7491(18)33033-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.

RevDate: 2019-05-15

Pawankar R (2019)

Climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia Pacific: impact on allergic diseases.

Asia Pacific allergy, 9(2):e11 pii:2019090201.

RevDate: 2019-05-15

Deviatkin I, Lyu L, Chen S, et al (2019)

Technical implications and global warming potential of recovering nitrogen released during continuous thermal drying of sewage sludge.

Waste management (New York, N.Y.), 90:132-140.

Thermal drying and consequent incineration of sewage sludge result in an absolute loss of an important macronutrient - nitrogen. To fulfill the growing food demand, humanity relies more on industrial fixation of nitrogen, primarily via the Haber-Bosch process. The present paper examines the nitrogen release during continuous thermal drying of municipal sewage sludge and its consequent recovery for fertilization. Furthermore, the possibility of nitrogen recovery from condensate is assessed. Finally, the study assesses the global warming potential of the proposed nitrogen recovery system and compares it with the baseline system manufacturing fertilizers from industrially fixed nitrogen. The results of the drying experiments showed that 0.73-1.03 g N-NH3 kg-1 total solids of sewage sludge was released to off-gases during its continuous thermal drying under 160 °C, which corresponds to 41-58% of ionized nitrogen content in raw sewage sludge subjected to thermal drying. The global warming potential of the nitrogen recovery was 28% lower compared to that of the commercial fertilizer production of equivalent properties: 4.1 kg CO2-Equiv. kg-1 N versus 5.7 kg CO2-Equiv. kg-1 N. Still, the sensitivity analysis showed that the results might traverse and lead to a higher global warming potential of 6.2 kg CO2-Equiv. during the nitrogen recovery process under certain process parameters.

RevDate: 2019-05-15

Shilt-Moody N, E Tsai (2019)

Turning the tide: The shift to climate change mitigation.

Journal of healthcare risk management : the journal of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management [Epub ahead of print].

In the United States, a growing number of companies are taking progressive steps to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Already, more than half of all Fortune 100 companies have announced clean energy targets, signaling climate change risk reduction is becoming a top priority. Climate change is not without controversy, yet it is a real business concern among corporate executives and health care leaders alike. From fears stoked by devastating wildfires in California to a rising tide of financial hardships due to hurricane flooding in the Southeast, it seems no region is immune to Mother Nature's growing cost to business. This report addresses how health care leaders are approaching climate change initiatives across the country by examining research articles, key opinion leaders, and health care organizations on the bleeding edge of climate change reduction. In an already complex industry, health care leaders have a special responsibility to do no harm to the patients they serve and a financial responsibility to drive monetary returns for invested stakeholders. Significant cost savings, long-term risk reduction, and improved population health are a few of the benefits health care organizations around the country can gain from building a sound climate change mitigation strategy.

RevDate: 2019-05-15

Ramachandran A, Palanivelu K, Mudgal BV, et al (2019)

Climate change impact on fluvial flooding in the Indian sub-basin: A case study on the Adyar sub-basin.

PloS one, 14(5):e0216461 pii:PONE-D-18-30507.

Flooding is one of the most disastrous global hazards, which has been occurring more frequently in recent times. It is observed that climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of floods and river basins have become more vulnerable to fluvial flooding. In this study, the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding was analyzed over the Adyar sub-basin. This study applied statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data in a CMIP5 dataset of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Based on the performance to simulate the observed climate, four GCMs, namely, cesm1-cam5, mpi-esm-mr, ncar-ccsm4, and bnu-esm, for RCP 4.5 were selected for projections of the future scenario. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the past and future scenarios were derived from the IMD-observed and GCM-projected rainfall data. Integrated flood modeling was performed with hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) models. Finally, in order to visualize the inundation areas according to the future climate projection, flood inundation maps were prepared geospatially using the ArcGIS software. For the 100-year return period, the results predict that the peak discharge for the future climate scenario would increase by 34.3%-91.9% as compared to the present climate scenario. Similarly, the future projections show an increase in the flooded area ranging from 12.6% to 26.4% based on GCMs. This simulation helps in understanding the flood risk over the Adyar sub-basin under the changing climate and the requirement for the regulation of developmental activities over the flood-prone areas.

RevDate: 2019-05-15

Maibach EW, Sarfaty M, Mitchell M, et al (2019)

Limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2.0°C-A unique and necessary role for health professionals.

PLoS medicine, 16(5):e1002804 pii:PMEDICINE-D-19-01076.

In an Editorial, Edward Maibach and colleagues discuss the important role of health professionals in future responses to threats of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-05-15

Kätelhön A, Meys R, Deutz S, et al (2019)

Climate change mitigation potential of carbon capture and utilization in the chemical industry.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1821029116 [Epub ahead of print].

Chemical production is set to become the single largest driver of global oil consumption by 2030. To reduce oil consumption and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon dioxide can be captured from stacks or air and utilized as alternative carbon source for chemicals. Here, we show that carbon capture and utilization (CCU) has the technical potential to decouple chemical production from fossil resources, reducing annual GHG emissions by up to 3.5 Gt CO2-eq in 2030. Exploiting this potential, however, requires more than 18.1 PWh of low-carbon electricity, corresponding to 55% of the projected global electricity production in 2030. Most large-scale CCU technologies are found to be less efficient in reducing GHG emissions per unit low-carbon electricity when benchmarked to power-to-X efficiencies reported for other large-scale applications including electro-mobility (e-mobility) and heat pumps. Once and where these other demands are satisfied, CCU in the chemical industry could efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation.

RevDate: 2019-05-14

Wang K, Zhang H, Han X, et al (2019)

Sources and burial fluxes of sedimentary organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea and the northern Chukchi Sea in response to global warming.

The Science of the total environment, 679:97-105 pii:S0048-9697(19)31919-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The Arctic and subarctic seas are the major CO2 sink areas on earth. In this study, the vertical variation characteristics of organic carbon, total nitrogen and their ratio (Corg/Nt), stable isotopes δ13C and δ15N, and BIT (branched and isoprenoid tetraether) index of GDGTs (glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) in combination with 210Pb-dating were used to analyze the changes in the marine and terrestrial sources of organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea (site 1), western Beaufort Sea slope (site 2) and northern Chukchi Sea (site 3). Organic carbon burial fluxes (OCBF) in the context of global warming were also explored at sites 1 and 3. The results showed that organic matter in these sediments were a mixed input of marine and terrestrial sources, and the BIT index and δ13C of site 2 suggested that the terrestrial soil organic matter was dominant. Based on a combination of 210Pb dating and Corg, the sedimentary OCBF at site 1 was 2.29-3.65 mg cm-2 y-1, and at site 3 was 0.00-0.41 mg cm-2 y-1. The temperature anomalies and sea ice changes in the Arctic in the past 100 years were compared with the burial fluxes of the terrestrial organic carbon. At site 1, the results indicated that fast melting of seasonal sea ice led to earlier arrival of ice algae bloom, enhanced zooplankton feeding and reduced carbon burial from 1947 to 2010, and the sudden increase in carbon burial after 2010 was attributed to an increase in primary productivity and terrestrial organic matter input due to an accelerated melting of sea ice. There was a smaller change in marine organic carbon content in site 3, but OCBF increased after a pre-1965 decrease, mainly controlled by terrestrial organic matter input associated with temperature rising and sea ice melting during recent decades.

RevDate: 2019-05-13

Niraula R, Meixner T, Dominguez F, et al (2017)

How might recharge change under projected climate change in western US?.

Geophysical research letters, 44(20):10407-10418.

Although groundwater is a major resource of water in the western US, little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future across the western US. Recharge is expected to decrease slightly (highly certain) in the West (-1.6%) and Southwest (-2.9%) regions in the near future and decrease considerably (highly certain) in the South region (-10.6%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge (highly certain) in both the near (+5.0%) and far (+9.0%) future. In general, southern portions of the western US are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. This study also shows that climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future.

RevDate: 2019-05-11

Farjad B, Gupta A, Sartipizadeh H, et al (2019)

A novel approach for selecting extreme climate change scenarios for climate change impact studies.

The Science of the total environment, 678:476-485 pii:S0048-9697(19)31747-4 [Epub ahead of print].

One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting climate change scenarios. By focusing on selecting projected extremes in a high dimensional space, one is confronted with the shrinkage of ensemble size while preserving the projection spread. This study proposes a novel integrated computational geometry algorithm to select extreme climate change scenarios in a high dimensional space. A set of 12 prominent climate extremes indices were used (as input to the algorithm) out of the 27 core indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The ETCCDI indices were projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period of 2081-2100 relative to the baseline period 1986-2005. The approach enables the user to shrink the initial selected ensemble into smaller sub-ensembles while still capturing a wide range of simulated changes for selected climatological variables. The conservation of the projection spread was evaluated using a robust validation method when the spread error was calculated for each simulation run. The developed algorithm was applied to three different regions where the geographical domain was narrowed-down from sub-continental (western North America) to its regional (Alberta, Canada), and local (Athabasca River basin, Alberta, Canada) subdomains. Results revealed that selected extreme scenarios can vary from one region to another within the same geographical domain in response to the spatial variation in climatic regime.

RevDate: 2019-05-11

Biasi R, Brunori E, Ferrara C, et al (2019)

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology and Quality Traits of Vitis vinifera L.: The Contribution of Local Knowledge.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 8(5): pii:plants8050121.

Developing adaptation strategies in Vitis vinifera, a crop sensitive to climate change, is crucial for resilience of traditional viticultural systems, especially in climate-vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean basin. A progressive warming is demonstrated to alter the geographical distribution of grapevine, reducing land capability for typical grapes and vine productions in most Southern European districts traditionally specialized in tree crops. Grapevine growth and reproduction under climate change require a continuous monitoring to adapt agronomic practices and strategies to global change. The present study illustrates an empirical approach grounded on a set of bio-physical indicators assessing the genotype-related response to climate variation. This approach was tested in Umbria, central Italy, to verify the response of some major international and local grapevine varieties to climate variation during a relatively long time interval (1995-2015). Long-term data for ripening time and berry quality collected in the study area were correlated to representative bioclimatic indices including Winkler, Huglin, and Cool night indicators. Results of this study highlighted the increase of air temperature (reflecting the inherent growth in thermal availability for maturation) and the alteration of precipitation patterns toward more intense precipitation. Climate variability exerted distinctive impacts on grapevine phenology depending on the related genotype. Empirical findings underline the usefulness of a permanent field monitoring of the relationship between selected climate variables and grape ripening with the aim to develop adaptive viticultural practices at farm's scale.

RevDate: 2019-05-10

de la Hoz CF, Ramos E, Puente A, et al (2019)

Climate change induced range shifts in seaweeds distributions in Europe.

Marine environmental research, 148:1-11 pii:S0141-1136(19)30068-6 [Epub ahead of print].

There are evidences of how climate change is affecting seaweeds distribution and the ecosystems services they provide. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these impacts when managing marine areas. One of the most applied tools in recent years to deal with this are species distribution models, however there are still some challenges to solve, such as the inclusion of hydrodynamic predictors and the application of effective, transferable and user-oriented methodologies. Five species (Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata and Cystoseira baccata) in Europe and 15 variables were considered. Nine of them were projected to the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-term (2040-2069) and the long term (2070-2099). Algorithms for each species were applied to generate models that were assessed by comparison of probabilities and observations (area under the curve, true skill statistics, Boyce index, sensitivity, correct classification rate), niches overlap (Schoener's D, Hellinger's I), geographical similarity (interquartile range) and ecological realism. Models built demonstrated very good predictive accuracy and sensitivity, without overfitting risk. A medium overlap in the historical and RCPs environmental conditions were obtained, therefore the models can be considered transferable and results accurate because only some isolated points were detected as outliers, corresponding to low probabilities. The areas of S. polyschides and G. spinosum have been identified to be dramatically reduced, meanwhile S. muticum and C. baccata were predicted to expand their range. P. canaliculata was expected to keep its sites of presence but with a decrease in its probability of occurrence. For all species it was remarkable the importance of hydrodynamic variables and parameters representing extreme conditions. Spatially predictions of the potential species and areas at risk are decisive for defining management strategies and resource allocation. The performance and usefulness of the approach applied in this study have been demonstrated for algae with different ecological requirements (from upper littoral to subtidal) and distributional patterns (native and invasive), therefore results can be used by marine planners with different goals: marine protected areas designation, monitoring efforts guiding, invasions risk assessment or aquaculture facilities zonation.

RevDate: 2019-05-10

Price SJ, Leung WTM, Owen CJ, et al (2019)

Effects of historic and projected climate change on the range and impacts of an emerging wildlife disease.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three-pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.

RevDate: 2019-05-10

Riris P, M Arroyo-Kalin (2019)

Widespread population decline in South America correlates with mid-Holocene climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):6850 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-43086-w.

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on prehistoric demography is crucial for understanding the adaptive pathways taken by human populations. Archaeologists across South America have pointed to patterns of regional abandonment during the Middle Holocene (8200 to 4200 cal BP) as evidence of sensitivity to shifts in hydroclimate over this period. We develop a unified approach to investigate demography and climate in South America and aim to clarify the extent to which evidence of local anthropic responses can be generalised to large-scale trends. We achieve this by integrating archaeological radiocarbon data and palaeoclimatic time series to show that population decline occurred coeval with the transition to the initial mid-Holocene across South America. Through the analysis of radiocarbon dates with Monte Carlo methods, we find multiple, sustained phases of downturn associated to periods of high climatic variability. A likely driver of the duration and severity of demographic turnover is the frequency of exceptional climatic events, rather than the absolute magnitude of change. Unpredictable levels of tropical precipitation had sustained negative impacts on pre-Columbian populations lasting until at least 6000 cal BP, after which recovery is evident. Our results support the inference that a demographic regime shift in the second half of the Middle Holocene were coeval with cultural practices surrounding Neotropical plant management and early cultivation, possibly acting as buffers when the wild resource base was in flux.

RevDate: 2019-05-10

Chang HP, Ma CC, HS Chen (2019)

Climate Change and Consumer's Attitude toward Insect Food.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(9): pii:ijerph16091606.

Given the influence of rising environmental awareness, food systems and security are receiving increasing international attention. Previous studies have discussed the acceptance of insect foods but have been primarily conducted in a European context. Hence, their results cannot be applied to Taiwanese consumers. Regarding this, our study is centered on the theory of planned behavior and considers environmental concern and food neophobia to discuss the effects of consumer attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on the purchase intention toward insect food. We used purposive sampling to survey questionnaire answers face-to-face in Taichung city, Taiwan. We distributed 408 surveys of which 77.45% were used in this study. The results revealed that consumer attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and food neophobia significantly influence purchase intention, whereas subjective norms and environmental concern did not demonstrate significant relationships with purchase intention. According to these results, we suggest that businesses emphasize consumers' product experience or reduce levels of food neophobia to increase consumer interest in insect foods and improve the acceptability of such foods, thereby increasing purchase intention.

RevDate: 2019-05-09

Chan EYY, Ho JY, Hung HHY, et al (2019)

Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China.

British medical bulletin pii:5481237 [Epub ahead of print].

Background: This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized.

Sources of data: Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database.

Areas of agreement: The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country.

Areas of controversy: While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found.

Growing points: Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing.

Areas timely for developing research: The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.

RevDate: 2019-05-09

Dhiman RC, Singh P, Yadav Y, et al (2019)

Preparedness for malaria elimination in the wake of climate change in the State of Uttarakhand (India).

Journal of vector borne diseases, 56(1):46-52.

Background & objectives: Climate change is an emerging issue particularly in the context of vector-borne diseases. A study was undertaken in Nainital and Almora districts of Uttarakhand to provide evidences of changing climatic conditions, abundance of vectors, and knocking of malaria in hilly areas.

Material and methods: Longitudinal data on temperature and relative humidity were procured from Tussar Silk Centre, Bhimtal, India as well as generated using HOBO device. Monthly density of malaria vectors, their positivity for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasite and fever surveys were conducted as per the standard procedures from 2010 to 2013. Epidemiological data were procured from the State Programme Officer of Uttarakhand state.

Results: It was found that the temperature has increased since 1990 resulting in extension in windows of malaria transmission, temporal distribution as well as man hour density of Anopheles culicifacies and An. fluviatilis in hilly districts of Uttarakhand state. Both the vectors were found in high density up to a maximum man hour density of 110 (An. culicifacies) and 69 (An. fluviatilis) as compared to 32 and 33, respectively during 1998. The field collected vector species were also found positive for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasites in the month of October and November. Evidence of occurrence of malaria cases was also found in areas hitherto free from malaria.

The findings reveal that Himalayan region needs attention to strengthen surveillance for malaria to identify emerging new foci of malaria transmission in view of climate change. Health education to communities about preventive measures to contain breeding of vectors and seeking timely treatment should be imparted so as to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in category-1 in the first instance.

RevDate: 2019-05-09

Özelsel TJ, Sondekoppam RV, K Buro (2019)

The future is now-it's time to rethink the application of the Global Warming Potential to anesthesia.

RevDate: 2019-05-09

González-Rete B, Salazar-Schettino PM, Bucio-Torres MI, et al (2019)

Activity of the prophenoloxidase system and survival of triatomines infected with different Trypanosoma cruzi strains under different temperatures: understanding Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

Parasites & vectors, 12(1):219 pii:10.1186/s13071-019-3477-9.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how human disease vectors will modify their life history patterns and survival capacity as a result of climate change. One case is that of Chagas disease, which has triatomine bugs and Trypanosoma cruzi as vectors and parasite, respectively. This work aimed to determine: (i) the activity of the prophenoloxidase system (prophenoloxidase and phenoloxidase activity, two indicators of immune ability) in three intestine regions (anterior midgut, posterior midgutand rectum) of the triatomine bug Meccus pallidipennis under three temperature conditions (20 °C, 30 °C and 34 °C) against two T. cruzi strains [ITRI/MX/14/CHIL (Chilpancingo) and ITRI/MX/12/MOR (Morelos)], and (ii) whether vector survival varies under these three temperatures after infection by these T. cruzi strains.

RESULTS: Our results indicate that prophenoloxidase activity was lower at higher temperatures, that the level of prophenoloxidase activity elicited by each strain was different (higher in Chilpancingo than in Morelos strains), and that prophenoloxidase activity was more intense in the anterior midgut than in the posterior midgut or rectum. Survival rates were lower in insects maintained at higher temperatures and infected by Chilpancingo strains.

CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that climate change could lead to lower prophenoloxidase activity and survival rates in triatomines when infected with different T. cruzi strains, which could reduce the vector capacity of M. pallidipennis.

RevDate: 2019-05-08

Gibson K, Haslam N, I Kaplan (2019)

Distressing encounters in the context of climate change: Idioms of distress, determinants, and responses to distress in Tuvalu.

Transcultural psychiatry [Epub ahead of print].

Across the globe there is a critical need for culturally informed and locally valid approaches to mental health assessment and intervention, particularly among disadvantaged and marginalized populations. To be optimally effective, such approaches must be informed by a sound understanding of locally relevant idioms of distress and its determinants, including those caused or exacerbated by global power disparities and structural inequities. Climate change, arising due to anthropogenic sources located predominantly in industrialized nations, is one potential determinant of distress having disproportionate adverse impacts on already marginalized populations. The present study formed part of a broader project examining the intersections of culture, climate change, and distress in the Polynesian nation of Tuvalu - a focal point of global concern over the human costs of climate change. The study explored determinants and idioms of distress and culturally prescribed responses to coping with distress. Results are based on fieldwork conducted in 2015 entailing semi-structured interviews with 16 key informants and 23 lay residents of Funafuti atoll, recruited using maximal variation purposive sampling. Findings are examined in consideration of the unfolding impacts of climate change and the threat it portends for the future, both of which were identified as salient determinants of distress, in keeping with theorized relationships between climate change and mental health. The study underscores the necessity of attending to the relationships between global forces, local cultures, and individual experiences of distress, as efforts to provide access to culturally informed social and mental health services expand globally.

RevDate: 2019-05-08

Kipp A, Cunsolo A, Gillis D, et al (2019)

The need for community-led, integrated and innovative monitoring programmes when responding to the health impacts of climate change.

International journal of circumpolar health, 78(2):1517581.

In Northern Canada, climate change has led to many acute and interrelated health and environmental impacts experienced among Inuit populations. Community-based monitoring, in which community members participate in monitoring initiatives using various forms of technology, is a key strategy increasingly used to detect, monitor and respond to climate change impacts. To better understand the landscape of existing environmental and health monitoring programmes mobilising different technologies and operating in the North we conducted a review that used environmental scan methodologies to explore and contextualise these programmes. We consulted with academic researchers with experience in community-led monitoring, conducted systematic searches of grey and peer-reviewed literature, and conducted a secondary search for environment-health mobile-phone applications. Following specific criteria, we identified 18 monitoring programmes using information and communication technologies in the North, and three global monitoring mobile-phone applications, which cumulatively monitored 74 environment and health indicators. Several themes emerged, including the need for: (1) community leadership, (2) indicators of environment and/or human health and (3) innovative technology. This synthesis supports the development of community-led, environment-health monitoring programmes that use innovative technology to monitor and share information related to the health implications of climate change in and around Indigenous communities throughout the Circumpolar North.

RevDate: 2019-05-08

Hayes K, Berry P, KL Ebi (2019)

Factors Influencing the Mental Health Consequences of Climate Change in Canada.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(9): pii:ijerph16091583.

Climate change is increasing risks to the mental health of Canadians. Impacts from a changing climate may outstrip the ability of Canadians and their health-sustaining institutions to adapt effectively and could increase poor mental health outcomes, particularly amongst those most marginalized in society. A scoping review of literature published during 2000-2017 explored risks, impacts, and vulnerabilities related to climate change and mental health. In this commentary, the authors present a new assessment of evidence from this scoping review and highlight factors that influence the capacity to adapt to the mental health consequences of a changing climate. Findings from this assessment reveal eleven key factors that influence the capacity to adapt: social capital; sense of community; government assistance; access to resources; community preparedness; intersectoral/transdisciplinary collaboration; vulnerability and adaptation assessments; communication and outreach; mental health literacy; and culturally relevant resources. Attention to these factors by Canadian decision makers can support proactive and effective management of the mental health consequences of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-05-08

Bartlow AW, Manore C, Xu C, et al (2019)

Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment.

Veterinary sciences, 6(2): pii:vetsci6020040.

Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.

RevDate: 2019-05-07

Kosaka T, Nakajima Y, Ishii A, et al (2019)

Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.

PloS one, 14(5):e0215614 pii:PONE-D-19-01189.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends keeping the increase in temperature to less than a two-degree increase by the end of the century, but the direct impact of global warming on ecosystems including microbes has not been investigated. Here we performed thermal adaptation of two species and three strains of mesophilic microbes for improvement of the survival upper limit of temperature, and the improvement was evaluated by a newly developed method. To understand the limitation and variation of thermal adaptation, experiments with mutators and by multiple cultures were performed. The results of experiments including genome sequencing and analysis of the characteristics of mutants suggest that these microbes bear a genomic potential to endure a 2-3°C rise in temperature but possess a limited variation of strategies for thermal adaptation.

RevDate: 2019-05-07

Cauchi JP, Correa-Velez I, H Bambrick (2019)

Climate change, food security and health in Kiribati: a narrative review of the literature.

Global health action, 12(1):1603683.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is recognised as having a 'multiplier effect' on food insecurity and adverse health experiences of communities in the Pacific region. Islands are especially at risk due to their limited land availability, population pressures and, in the case of atolls, their low-lying topography making them vulnerable to sea level rise.

AIM: This review examines the literature describing the relationship between climate change, food security and health in Kiribati.

METHOD: A narrative review was conducted, looking at both peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed literature available online from 1 January 2008 to 14 August 2018, the search date. Sources from three databases of peer-reviewed literature, Google and additional sources from reference lists were included in the review.

RESULTS: Thirty-seven items were included in this review. These show climate change is having a noticeable impact on food security and health in Kiribati. Four themes were identified from the literature that provide different perspectives to the problem outlined.

CONCLUSION: Climate change is a pressing concern for the government of Kiribati and communities alike, and yet the problem is worsening, not improving. Further research is required to look at effective policies and cultural perspectives to address this problem.

RevDate: 2019-05-07

Mashizha TM (2019)

Adapting to climate change: Reflections of peasant farmers in Mashonaland West Province of Zimbabwe.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):571 pii:JAMBA-11-571.

Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa and this is likely to continue for decades, unless adaptation measures are implemented. The changing climate is a global challenge to sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Peasant farmers in Zimbabwe depend entirely on rain-fed agriculture, a situation that makes agriculture and rural livelihoods vulnerable to climate change. This paper discusses the findings of the study carried out in the Zvimba District amongst peasant farmers on their knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Semi-structured interviews, observations and document analysis were used as methodologies for data collection for the study. Purposeful sampling technique was applied to 40 peasant farmers. Qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussion were analysed using context analysis. Households acknowledged that rainfall amount has decreased over the last 30 years. Such changes have reduced agricultural productivity, and in response, communities have developed multiple adaptation strategies such as harnessing social capital, crop and livelihood diversification, engaging in small businesses and water harvesting for livestock keeping. The study concludes that there is a need to recognise the validity of indigenous knowledge and an inventory should be created for future use. The paper notes that diversification of adaptive strategies is vital for sustainable livelihood in a changing climate.

Keywords: climate change; adaptation; Zimbabwe; livelihood diversification.

RevDate: 2019-05-07

Razgour O, Forester B, Taggart JB, et al (2019)

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1820663116 [Epub ahead of print].

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species' future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population's adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

RevDate: 2019-05-06

Anonymous (2019)

"How Can Climate Change Impact the Workplace and Worker Health?" Part 6: Operational Support-Related Responsibilities of Occupational and Environmental Medicine Experts to the Employer in the Context of Climate Change.

Journal of occupational and environmental medicine [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-05-06

Wolf KKE, Romanelli E, Rost B, et al (2019)

Company matters: The presence of other genotypes alters traits and intraspecific selection in an Arctic diatom under climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Arctic phytoplankton and their response to future conditions shape one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet. We tested how much the phenotypic responses of strains from an Arctic diatom population diverge and whether the physiology and intraspecific composition of multi-strain populations differ from expectations based on single strain traits. To this end, we conducted incubation experiments with the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina under present-day and future temperature and pCO2 treatments. Six fresh isolates from the same Svalbard population were incubated as mono- and multi-strain cultures. For the first time, we were able to closely follow intraspecific selection within an artificial population using microsatellites and allele-specific quantitative PCR. Our results show not only that there is substantial variation in how strains of the same species cope with the tested environments, but also that changes in genotype composition, production rates and cellular quotas in the multi-strain cultures are not predictable from monoculture performance. Nevertheless, the physiological responses as well as strain composition of the artificial populations were highly reproducible within each environment. Interestingly, we only detected significant strain sorting in those populations exposed to the future treatment. This study illustrates that the genetic composition of populations can change on very short timescales through selection from the intraspecific standing stock, indicating the potential for rapid population level adaptation to climate change. We further show that individuals adjust their phenotype not only in response to their physico-chemical, but also to their biological surroundings. Such intraspecific interactions need to be understood in order to realistically predict ecosystem responses to global change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-05-06

Gallego-Tévar B, Infante-Izquierdo MD, Figueroa E, et al (2019)

Some Like It Hot: Maternal-Switching With Climate Change Modifies Formation of Invasive Spartina Hybrids.

Frontiers in plant science, 10:484.

Climate change can induce temporary, spatial or behavioral changes in species, so that only some species can adapt to the new climatic conditions. In the case of invasive species, it is expected that they will be promoted in a context of global change, given their high tolerance to environmental factors and phenotypic plasticity. Once in the invaded range, these species can hybridize with native species thus introducing their genotype in the native biota. However, the effects that climate change will have on this process of invasion by hybridization remain unclear. We evaluated the historical establishment of the reciprocal hybrids between the native Spartina maritima and the invasive S. densiflora in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula) and we related it to climatic changes during the period 1955-2017. Our results showed that, according to their dating based on their rate of lateral expansion rates, the establishment of S. maritima × densiflora and S. densiflora × maritima in the Gulf of Cadiz has occurred in the last two centuries and has been related to changes in air temperature and rainfall during the flowering periods of their parental species, with antagonist impacts on both hybrids. Thus, the hybrid S. densiflora × maritima has been established in years with mild ends of spring and beginning of summer when the flowering of S. maritima lengthened and its pollen production was higher, and it coincided with the beginning of the flowering period of S. densiflora. Moreover, the establishment of this hybrid was related to higher spring/summer rainfalls, probably due to the reduction in salinity in middle marshes. However, the hybrid S. maritima × densiflora, was established mainly in warmer spring/summers in which the proportion of pollen:ovule of S. maritima was reduced favoring its pollination by S. densiflora. As a consequence of the promotion of S. maritima × densiflora with climate change, the native and endangered species S. maritima would be threatened, as both taxa share the same habitat and the hybrid shows a remarkably higher competitive potential.

RevDate: 2019-05-06

De Ollas C, Morillón R, Fotopoulos V, et al (2019)

Facing Climate Change: Biotechnology of Iconic Mediterranean Woody Crops.

Frontiers in plant science, 10:427.

The Mediterranean basin is especially sensitive to the adverse outcomes of climate change and especially to variations in rainfall patterns and the incidence of extremely high temperatures. These two concurring adverse environmental conditions will surely have a detrimental effect on crop performance and productivity that will be particularly severe on woody crops such as citrus, olive and grapevine that define the backbone of traditional Mediterranean agriculture. These woody species have been traditionally selected for traits such as improved fruit yield and quality or alteration in harvesting periods, leaving out traits related to plant field performance. This is currently a crucial aspect due to the progressive and imminent effects of global climate change. Although complete genome sequence exists for sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) and clementine (Citrus clementina), olive tree (Olea europaea) and grapevine (Vitis vinifera), the development of biotechnological tools to improve stress tolerance still relies on the study of the available genetic resources including interspecific hybrids, naturally occurring (or induced) polyploids and wild relatives under field conditions. To this respect, post-genomic era studies including transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics provide a wide and unbiased view of plant physiology and biochemistry under adverse environmental conditions that, along with high-throughput phenotyping, could contribute to the characterization of plant genotypes exhibiting physiological and/or genetic traits that are correlated to abiotic stress tolerance. The ultimate goal of precision agriculture is to improve crop productivity, in terms of yield and quality, making a sustainable use of land and water resources under adverse environmental conditions using all available biotechnological tools and high-throughput phenotyping. This review focuses on the current state-of-the-art of biotechnological tools such as high throughput -omics and phenotyping on grapevine, citrus and olive and their contribution to plant breeding programs.

RevDate: 2019-05-06

Bebber DP (2019)

Climate change effects on Black Sigatoka disease of banana.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1775):20180269.

Climate change has significantly altered species distributions in the wild and has the potential to affect the interactions between pests and diseases and their human, animal and plant hosts. While several studies have projected changes in disease distributions in the future, responses to historical climate change are poorly understood. Such analyses are required to dissect the relative contributions of climate change, host availability and dispersal to the emergence of pests and diseases. Here, we model the influence of climate change on the most damaging disease of a major tropical food plant, Black Sigatoka disease of banana. Black Sigatoka emerged from Asia in the late twentieth Century and has recently completed its invasion of Latin American and Caribbean banana-growing areas. We parametrize an infection model with published experimental data and drive the model with hourly microclimate data from a global climate reanalysis dataset. We define infection risk as the sum of the number of modelled hourly spore cohorts that infect a leaf over a time interval. The model shows that infection risk has increased by a median of 44.2% across banana-growing areas of Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s, due to increasing canopy wetness and improving temperature conditions for the pathogen. Thus, while increasing banana production and global trade have probably facilitated Black Sigatoka establishment and spread, climate change has made the region increasingly conducive for plant infection. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

RevDate: 2019-05-04

Gao D, Xie M, Chen X, et al (2019)

Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Surface Ozone during Summer in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(9): pii:ijerph16091528.

Future climate change can impact ozone concentrations by changing regional meteorological factors related to ozone (O3) pollution. To better understand the variations of meteorological factors and their effects on O3 formation processes under future climate conditions, we model the present and the future meteorology and air quality in summer over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF/Chem), which is driven by the outputs of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). The simulations predict that solar radiation, 2-m air temperature, and wind speed increase in the daytime over most of the YRD region. Absolute humidity and precipitation increase in the north and decrease in the south, while the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) has an opposite change pattern displaying a decrease in the north and an increase in the south. The southerly wind will be strengthened in the daytime. At night, the change patterns of the meteorological factors are similar to the daytime but with small variations. Meanwhile, O3 and its precursors all increase in the north and decrease in the south. The increases of NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOC), and CO are related with the decreases of PBLH and the input effect of stronger southerly wind, while the decreases are attributed to the output effect of the stronger southerly wind. During the daytime, the increase of surface O3 in the north is dominated by the chemical processes related with the increases of solar radiation, air temperature, and O3 precursors. The decrease of surface O3 in the south is mainly caused by the transport process changing with the strengthened southerly wind. At night, the surface O3 changing the amplitude is less than the daytime. The less O3 variations at night can be attributed to an O3 titration reaction with NO, the changes in NOx concentrations, and the increases of nocturnal PBLH. With the aid of H2O2/HNO3, O3 formation in the YRD region is found to be easily affected by NOx in the future. The findings can help to understand the changing trend of O3 in the YRD region and can propose reasonable pollution control policies.

RevDate: 2019-05-06

Duane A, Aquilué N, Canelles Q, et al (2019)

Adapting prescribed burns to future climate change in Mediterranean landscapes.

The Science of the total environment, 677:68-83 pii:S0048-9697(19)31890-X [Epub ahead of print].

Fire regimes are shifting or are expected to do so under global change. Current fire suppression is not able to control all wildfires, and its capability to do so might be compromised under harsher climate conditions. Alternative fire management strategies may allow to counteract predicted fire trends, but we lack quantitative tools to evaluate their potential effectiveness at the landscape scale. Here, we sought to quantify changes in fire regimes induced after the implementation of different fire management strategies. We developed and applied a new version of the model MEDFIRE in Catalonia (Mediterranean region of ~32,000 km2 in NE Spain). We first projected burnt area from 2016 to 2100 resulting from climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario of HadGEM-CC model and under current fire suppression levels. We then evaluated the impacts of four fire management strategies: 'Let it burn', fixed effort of prescribed burning with two different spatial allocations, and adaptive prescribed burning dynamically adjusting efforts according to recent past fires. Results predicted the emergence of novel climates associated with similar barometric configurations to current conditions but with higher temperatures (i.e. hot wind events). These novel climates led to an increase in burnt area, which was partially counteracted by negative fire-vegetation feedbacks. All prescribed burning scenarios decreased the amount of high-intensity fires and extreme fire events. The 'Let it burn' strategy, although less costly, was not able to reduce the extent of high-intensity fires. The adaptive prescribed burning scenario resulted in the most cost-efficient strategy. Our results provide quantitative evidence of fire management effectiveness, and bring to light key insights that could guide the design of fire policies fit for future novel climate conditions. We propose adaptive landscape management focused on the reduction of fire negative impacts rather than on the elimination of this disturbance from the system.

RevDate: 2019-05-06

Luo M, Liu T, Meng F, et al (2019)

Identifying climate change impacts on water resources in Xinjiang, China.

The Science of the total environment, 676:613-626 pii:S0048-9697(19)31832-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Water resources have an important role in maintaining ecological fuctions and sustaining social and economic development. This is especially true in arid and semi-arid areas, where climate change has a large impact on water resources, such as in Xinjiang, China. Using a combination of precipitation and temperature bias correction methods, we analyzed projected changes in different hydrological components in nine high-alpine catchments distributed in Xinjiang using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The impacts of elevation, area and aspect of the catchments were analyzed. The results suggested an overall warming and wetting trend for all nine catchments in the near future, with the exception of summer precipitation decreasing in some catchments. The total runoff discharge, evapotranspiration and snow/ice melting will generally increase. Warming temperature plays a more important role in the changes of each hydrological component than increasing precipitation. However, northern Xinjiang was more sensitive to predicted precipitation changes than southern Xinjiang. These results also indicate that the overall increases in water resources are not sustainable, and the impacts of climate change are associated with the elevation, area and slope aspect of the catchments.

RevDate: 2019-05-03

Bi K, Linderoth T, Singhal S, et al (2019)

Temporal genomic contrasts reveal rapid evolutionary responses in an alpine mammal during recent climate change.

PLoS genetics, 15(5):e1008119 pii:PGENETICS-D-18-02441 [Epub ahead of print].

Many species have experienced dramatic changes in their abundance and distribution during recent climate change, but it is often unclear whether such ecological responses are accompanied by evolutionary change. We used targeted exon sequencing of 294 museum specimens (160 historic, 134 modern) to generate independent temporal genomic contrasts spanning a century of climate change (1911-2012) for two co-distributed chipmunk species: an endemic alpine specialist (Tamias alpinus) undergoing severe range contraction and a stable mid-elevation species (T. speciosus). Using a novel analytical approach, we reconstructed the demographic histories of these populations and tested for evidence of recent positive directional selection. Only the retracting species showed substantial population genetic fragmentation through time and this was coupled with positive selection and substantial shifts in allele frequencies at a gene, Alox15, involved in regulation of inflammation and response to hypoxia. However, these rapid population and gene-level responses were not detected in an analogous temporal contrast from another area where T. alpinus has also undergone severe range contraction. Collectively, these results highlight that evolutionary responses may be variable and context dependent across populations, even when they show seemingly synchronous ecological shifts. Our results demonstrate that temporal genomic contrasts can be used to detect very recent evolutionary responses within and among contemporary populations, even in the face of complex demographic changes. Given the wealth of specimens archived in natural history museums, comparative analyses of temporal population genomic data have the potential to improve our understanding of recent and ongoing evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments.

RevDate: 2019-05-03

Mathis M, S Briand (2019)

[Climate change, epidemics and the importance of travel and tropical medicine].

Revue medicale suisse, 15(649):898-900.

Climate change is one of the factors explaining the increased occurrence of epidemics, their geographical spread as well as their increased severity and broader impact. Climate change makes the environment more favourable for pathogens and their proliferation, as well as for vectors of infectious diseases (such as mosquitoes). Furthermore, the globalisation and intensified travel and trade require international cooperation for epidemic response and training of health professional on emerging infectious risks.

RevDate: 2019-05-03

Nhamo G, S Muchuru (2019)

Climate adaptation in the public health sector in Africa: Evidence from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):644 pii:JAMBA-11-644.

Climate change has potential to affect human health in various ways. Extreme temperatures and cold both result in deaths, while the changing habitats favouring the breeding of vectors could result in the spread of diseases such as malaria, cholera and typhus. This article reviews climate change adaptation measures in the African public health sector. The evidence is drawn from National Communications of 21 countries as submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This article combines the literature review and grounded theory approaches with data obtained from the UNFCCC National Communications. Among key adaptation measures emerging from the work are weather-based forecasting and early warning systems, public education and awareness, putting in place appropriate policies, surveillance, research and monitoring as well as improving public health infrastructure and technology. The study recommends that African nations should commit to address health impacts of climate change through the implementation of appropriate adaptation measures.

RevDate: 2019-05-03

Zwane EM (2019)

Impact of climate change on primary agriculture, water sources and food security in Western Cape, South Africa.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):562 pii:JAMBA-11-562.

Climate change is undoubtedly one of the biggest crises that humanity is facing today. There is a robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring not only in the Western Cape but around the world. The objective of this research was to assess the impact of climate change on primary agriculture and food security. The paper is based on a literature review. A variety of literature reviews, for example, 11 government reports and 21 journal articles including experience outside Western Cape, were consulted to enrich the local experience regarding the impact of climate change on agriculture. The results indicated that many dams had low water levels (40%) during 2016/2017, which reduced crop yields including grapes. Droughts, which affected both smallholder and commercial farmers, are now a common phenomenon. Livestock production has declined over time, with small stock, the beef and dairy industry being the most affected. The paper concludes by highlighting climate adaptation and mitigation interventions and strategies for both crops and livestock production in the Western Cape. The major recommendations included scaling up on the use of organic matter to avoid burning and creating gas emissions to the atmosphere, the effective use of livestock manure and the use of appropriate and adaptable seed varieties, managing the manure of the livestock to assist in mulching to reduce water loss through evaporation and using adaptable seeds. Keywords: climate change; impact; mitigation; primary agriculture; adaptation; drought.

RevDate: 2019-05-01

Yadollahie M (2019)

The Flood in Iran: A Consequence of the Global Warming?.

The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine, 10(2):54-56.

RevDate: 2019-05-01

Anonymous (2019)

Hurricane Maria's catastrophic rains are linked to global warming.

Nature, 569(7754):8.

RevDate: 2019-04-30

Li Y, Y Qin (2019)

The Response of Net Primary Production to Climate Change: A Case Study in the 400 mm Annual Precipitation Fluctuation Zone in China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(9): pii:ijerph16091497.

The regions in China that intersect the 400 mm annual precipitation line are especially ecologically sensitive and extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. However, in the context of climate change, the response of vegetation Net Primary Production (NPP) in this region has not been scientifically studied in depth. NPP suffers from the comprehensive effect of multiple climatic factors, and how to eliminate the effect of interfering variables in the correlation analysis of NPP and target variables (temperature or precipitation) is the major challenge in the study of NPP influencing factors. The correlation coefficient between NPP and target variable was calculated by ignoring other variables that also had a large impact on NPP. This increased the uncertainty of research results. Therefore, in this study, the second-order partial correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation between NPP and target variables by controlling other variables. This can effectively decrease the uncertainty of analysis results. In this paper, the univariate linear regression, coefficient of variation, and Hurst index estimation were used to study the spatial and temporal variations in NPP and analyze whether the NPP seasonal and annual variability will persist into the future. The results show the following: (i) The spatial distribution of NPP correlated with precipitation and had a gradually decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. From 2000 to 2015, the NPP in the study area had a general upward trend, with a small variation in its range. (ii) Areas with negative partial correlation coefficients between NPP and precipitation are consistent with the areas with more abundant water resources. The partial correlation coefficient between the NPP and the Land Surface Temperature (LST) was positive for 52.64% of the total study area. Finally, the prediction of the persistence of NPP variation into the future showed significant differences on varying time scales. On an annual scale, NPP was predicted to persist for 46% of the study area. On a seasonal scale, NPP in autumn was predicted to account for 49.92%, followed by spring (25.67%), summer (13.40%), and winter (6.75%).

RevDate: 2019-04-30

Zhang H, Liu B, Zhou D, et al (2019)

Asymmetric Soil Warming under Global Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(9): pii:ijerph16091504.

Daily surface soil temperature data from 360 weather stations in China during 1962-2011 were retrieved and analyzed. The data revealed two aspects of asymmetric soil warming. Firstly, there was asymmetry between day and night in terms of increases in soil temperature. The daily maximum surface soil temperature (S T max) and daily minimum surface soil temperature (S T min) increased at rates of 0.031 and 0.055 °C/year over the 50-year interval, respectively. As a consequence of the more rapid increases in S T min , the soil diurnal temperature range (SDTR) decreased at most stations (average rate of -0.025 °C/year), with the most profound decrease in winter (-0.08 °C/year). The solar duration (SD) was positively related to SDTR and is regarded as the key underlying cause of the decreasing SDTR. Secondly, there was asymmetry between the soil and air in the temperature increase. The differences between soil and air temperature (T D) were highest in summer (2.76 °C) and smallest in winter (1.55 °C), which decreased by 0.3 °C over the study interval, this meant agricultural practice plans based on air temperature alone may be severely limited. The difference between soil temperature and air temperature reduces at night. This would facilitate the wintering of perennials in areas near the zero-contour line.

RevDate: 2019-04-29

Milicevic D, Petronijevic R, Petrovic Z, et al (2019)

Impact of climate change on aflatoxin M1 contamination of raw milk with a special focus on climate conditions in serbia.

Journal of the science of food and agriculture [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change has been identified as an emerging issue worldwide due to potential effects that can provoke changes in the nature and occurrence of food safety hazards. Mycotoxins are a group of naturally occurring toxic substances produced by several genera of filamentous fungi, among which, primarily aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes, and zearalenone are of the greatest concern, due to their negative impact on human health, animal productivity, and international trade.

RESULT: Extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts which have not occurred previously in Serbia may be supporting factors for contamination of crops by various species of toxigenic fungi and their related mycotoxins. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) and multivariate analyses were used as powerful tools, allowing better understanding of the range of climate factors impacting on crop contamination by mycotoxins. Among the selected environmental variables, temperature and moisture significantly influenced aflatoxin production. Recent drought and then flooding confirmed that Serbia is one of the few European countries with very high risk exposure to natural hazards, as well as that mycotoxins are one of the foodborne hazards most susceptible to climate change. Thus, climate change effects on mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin contamination is now receiving scientific attention, especially from a risk analysis perspective.

CONCLUSION: This paper evaluates the available information on the influence of climate change on mycotoxin contamination, especially aflatoxin M1 (AFM1). In addition, this investigation should beneficially contribute to more accurate predictions of the regional risk from mycotoxins in future decades.

RevDate: 2019-04-29

Griffith AW, Harke MJ, DePasquale E, et al (2019)

The harmful algae, Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens, elicit stronger transcriptomic and mortality response in larval bivalves (Argopecten irradians) than climate change stressors.

Ecology and evolution, 9(8):4931-4948 pii:ECE35100.

Global ocean change threatens marine life, yet a mechanistic understanding of how organisms are affected by specific stressors is poorly understood. Here, we identify and compare the unique and common transcriptomic responses of an organism experiencing widespread fisheries declines, Argopecten irradians (bay scallop) exposed to multiple stressors including high pCO2, elevated temperature, and two species of harmful algae, Cochlodinium (aka Margalefidinium) polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens using high-throughput sequencing (RNA-seq). After 48 hr of exposure, scallop transcriptomes revealed distinct expression profiles with larvae exposed to harmful algae (C. polykrikoides and A. anophagefferens) displaying broader responses in terms of significantly and differentially expressed (DE) transcripts (44,922 and 4,973; respectively) than larvae exposed to low pH or elevated temperature (559 and 467; respectively). Patterns of expression between larvae exposed to each harmful algal treatment were, however, strikingly different with larvae exposed to A. anophagefferens displaying large, significant declines in the expression of transcripts (n = 3,615; 87% of DE transcripts) whereas exposure to C. polykrikoides increased the abundance of transcripts, more than all other treatments combined (n = 43,668; 97% of DE transcripts). Larvae exposed to each stressor up-regulated a common set of 21 genes associated with protein synthesis, cellular metabolism, shell growth, and membrane transport. Larvae exposed to C. polykrikoides displayed large increases in antioxidant-associated transcripts, whereas acidification-exposed larvae increased abundance of transcripts associated with shell formation. After 10 days of exposure, each harmful algae caused declines in survival that were significantly greater than all other treatments. Collectively, this study reveals the common and unique transcriptional responses of bivalve larvae to stressors that promote population declines within coastal zones, providing insight into the means by which they promote mortality as well as traits possessed by bay scallops that enable potential resistance.

RevDate: 2019-04-29

Hyseni C, RC Garrick (2019)

The role of glacial-interglacial climate change in shaping the genetic structure of eastern subterranean termites in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.

Ecology and evolution, 9(8):4621-4636 pii:ECE35065.

The eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, currently inhabits previously glaciated regions of the northeastern U.S., as well as the unglaciated southern Appalachian Mountains and surrounding areas. We hypothesized that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have influenced the distribution of R. flavipes, and thus the evolutionary history of the species. We estimated contemporary and historical geographic distributions of R. flavipes by constructing Species Distribution Models (SDM). We also inferred the evolutionary and demographic history of the species using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and nuclear (endo-beta-1,4-glucanase) DNA sequence data. To do this, genetic populations were delineated using Bayesian spatial-genetic clustering, competing hypotheses about population divergence were assessed using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and changes in population size were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots. SDMs identified areas in the north with suitable habitat during the transition from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, as well as an expanding distribution from the mid-Holocene to the present. Genetic analyses identified three geographically cohesive populations, corresponding with northern, central, and southern portions of the study region. Based on ABC analyses, divergence between the Northern and Southern populations was the oldest, estimated to have occurred 64.80 thousand years ago (kya), which corresponds with the timing of available habitat in the north. The Central and Northern populations diverged in the mid-Holocene, 8.63 kya, after which the Central population continued to expand. Accordingly, phylogeographic patterns of R. flavipes in the southern Appalachians appear to have been strongly influenced by glacial-interglacial climate change.

OPEN RESEARCH BADGES: This article has been awarded Open Materials, Open Data Badges. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at

RevDate: 2019-04-29

Lee AM (2019)

Citizen Scientists in Antarctica: FjordPhyto Approach to Understand Climate Change Affected Environments.

Narrative inquiry in bioethics, 9(1):21-24.

RevDate: 2019-04-28

Nagai S, Saitoh TM, S Yoshitake (2019)

Cultural ecosystem services provided by flowering of cherry trees under climate change: a case study of the relationship between the periods of flowering and festivals.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-019-01719-9 [Epub ahead of print].

In Japan, cherry blossoms are an important tourism resource and provide many cultural ecosystem service benefits. Under future warming conditions, we will require adaptions such as changing the timing of flower festivals to account for changes in the flowering phenology. In this study, we evaluated the coincidence between the flowering phenology of cherry blossoms and the associated festival periods in two Japanese cities under past, recent, and future climate conditions. We examined the situation in Shinhidaka, where the flower festival period changes every year, and Takayama, where the festival period is fixed to coincide with a shrine's annual spring festival. Currently, the average dates of beginning of flowering (more than four or five flowers open in an index tree; ~BBCH60) and full bloom (equal to or more than 80% of flowers open in an index tree; after BBCH65) in Shinhidaka (day of year (DOY) 126 and 130) are later than the long national holiday of Golden Week (DOY 119 to 125). The respective dates in Takayama (DOY 106 and 111, respectively) are later than the local a festival period (DOY 104 and 105). Under a scenario of 1.0 to 2.0 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Shinhidaka will coincide with Golden Week, whereas under 1.0 to 1.5 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Takayama will coincide with the spring festival period. Thus, moderate warming may increase the value of cherry blossoms to the tourism industry. Under more than 3.5 °C warming in Shinhidaka and 2.5 °C warming in Takayama, however, cherry blossoms will have already dropped by Golden Week and the spring festival period, respectively, suggesting that greater warming may decrease the value of this tourism resource.

RevDate: 2019-04-28

Nasir MA, Duc Huynh TL, HT Xuan Tram (2019)

Role of financial development, economic growth & foreign direct investment in driving climate change: A case of emerging ASEAN.

Journal of environmental management, 242:131-141 pii:S0301-4797(19)30425-6 [Epub ahead of print].

In the context of remarkable economic growth and financial development in the emerging economies of East Asia, this paper attempts to shed light on the ecological consequences (CO2 emission) of economic growth, foreign direct investment and financial development in the selected ASEAN-5 economies. Drawing on the data from 1982 to 2014, we employed a set of quantitative techniques for panel data analysis which entailed Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) approaches. Our findings indicate that financial and economic development, as well as FDI, have a statistically significant long-run co-integrating relationship with environmental degradation (CO2 emissions) in the under analysis economies. It showed that in ASEAN-5 countries, economic growth, financial development and FDI leads to an increase in environmental degradation. The quadratic term for economic growth showed a negative impact on environmental degradation i.e. Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Our key findings manifest and emphasise the importance of appropriate policies for more inclusive economic and financial development and sustainable foreign direct investment which does not impede on the environment.

RevDate: 2019-04-28

Varo R, Rodó X, Q Bassat (2019)

Climate change, cyclones and cholera - Implications for travel medicine and infectious diseases.

RevDate: 2019-04-28

Gronlund CJ, Cameron L, Shea C, et al (2019)

Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041-2070.

Environmental health : a global access science source, 18(1):40 pii:10.1186/s12940-019-0483-5.

BACKGROUND: Extreme heat (EH) and extreme precipitation (EP) events are expected to increase with climate change in many parts of the world. Characterizing the potential future morbidity and mortality burden of EH and EP and associated costs, as well as uncertainties in the estimates, can identify areas for public health intervention and inform adaptation strategies. We demonstrate a burden of disease and uncertainty assessment using data from Michigan, USA, and provide approaches for deriving these estimates for locations lacking certain data inputs.

METHODS: Case-crossover analysis adapted from previous Michigan-specific modeling was used to characterize the historical EH-mortality relationship by county poverty rate and age group. Historical EH-associated hospitalization and emergency room visit risks from the literature were adapted to Michigan. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP software, we used a novel approach, with multiple spatially-varying exposures, to estimate all non-accidental mortality and morbidity occurring on EH days (EH days; days where maximum temperature 32.2-35 C or > 35 C) and EP days. We did so for two time periods: the "historical" period (1971-2000), and the "projected" period (2041-2070), by county.

RESULTS: The rate of all non-accidental mortality associated with EH days increased from 0.46/100,000 persons historically to 2.9/100,000 in the projected period, for 240 EH-attributable deaths annually. EH-associated ED visits increased from 12/100,000 persons to 68/100,000 persons, for 7800 EH-attributable emergency department visits. EP-associated ED visits increased minimally from 1.7 to 1.9/100,000 persons. Mortality and morbidity were highest among those aged 65+ (91% of all deaths). Projected health costs are dominated by EH-associated mortality ($280 million) and EH-associated emergency department visits ($14 million). A variety of sources contribute to a moderate-to-high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates, including uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change, population composition, baseline health rates, and exposure-response estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: The approach applied here showed that health burden due to climate may significantly rise for all Michigan counties by midcentury. The costs to health care and uncertainties in the estimates, given the potential for substantial attributable burden, provide additional information to guide adaptation measures for EH and EP.

RevDate: 2019-04-27

Anonymous (2018)

Curbing global warming could save US$20 trillion.

Nature, 557(7706):467-468.

RevDate: 2019-04-27

Walter S, Lörcher I, M Brüggemann (2019)

Scientific networks on Twitter: Analyzing scientists' interactions in the climate change debate.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

Scientific issues requiring urgent societal actions-such as climate change-have increased the need for communication and interaction between scientists and other societal actors. Social media platforms facilitate such exchanges. This study investigates who scientists interact with on Twitter, and whether their communication differs when engaging with actors beyond the scientific community. We focus on the climate change debate on Twitter and combine network analysis with automated content analysis. The results show that scientists interact most intensively with their peers, but also communication beyond the scientific community is important. The findings suggest that scientists adjust their communication style to their audience: They use more neutral language when communicating with other scientists, and more words expressing negative emotions when communicating with journalists, civil society, and politicians. Likewise, they stress certainty more when communicating with politicians, indicating that scientists use language strategically when communicating beyond the scientific community.

RevDate: 2019-04-27

Levy BS (2019)

Increasing Risks for Armed Conflict: Climate Change, Food and Water Insecurity, and Forced Displacement.

International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation [Epub ahead of print].

The interrelated factors of climate change, decreased access to freshwater, and forced displacement are heightening the risk of armed conflict. Higher temperatures and extremes of precipitation are contributing to food and water insecurity, forced displacement, and sociopolitical tensions. Health professionals can help to address these problems through education, advocacy, and other activities that aim to mitigate and adapt to climate change and minimize the risk of armed conflict.

RevDate: 2019-04-26

Godde C, Dizyee K, Ash A, et al (2019)

Climate change and variability impacts on grazing herds: Insights from a system dynamics approach for semi-arid Australian rangelands.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi-arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long-term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the inter-annual (year-to-year) and intra-annual (month-to-month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effects on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long-term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-04-26

Inouye DW (2019)

Effects of climate change on alpine plants and their pollinators.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences [Epub ahead of print].

Alpine environments are among the habitats most strongly affected by climate change, and consequently their unique plants and pollinators are faced with the challenge of adapting or going extinct. Changes in temperature and precipitation affect snowpack and snowmelt, resulting in changes in the growing season in this environment where plant growth and pollinator activity are constrained to the snow-free season, which can vary significantly across the landscape if there is significant topographic complexity. As in other ecosystems, the resulting changes in phenology are not uniform among species, creating the potential for altered and new interspecific interactions. New plant and animal species are arriving as lower altitude species move up with warming temperatures, introducing new competitors and generating changes in plant-pollinator interactions. Repeating historical surveys, taking advantage of museum collections, and using new technology will facilitate our understanding of how plants and pollinators are responding to the changing alpine environment.

RevDate: 2019-04-26

Li J, Wu J, Peng K, et al (2019)

Simulating the effects of climate change across the geographical distribution of two medicinal plants in the genus Nardostachys.

PeerJ, 7:e6730 pii:6730.

Background: The medicinal plants of Radix et Rhizoma Nardostachyos include Nardostachys jatamansi and N. chinensis. Traditionally, the two plants have been used to treat many diseases. Because of their special aroma, they are also commonly used in the food and cosmetics industry. Recently, N. jatamansi and N. chinensis have been overexploited due to their economic importance, resulting in a sharp decline in their wild resources. Predicting potential distributions of the genus Nardostachys under different climate scenarios and understanding its preferred habitat are of great significance for their conservation, artificial cultivation, and assessment of their value.

Methods: The Maxent model was used to predict the potential geographical distributions of the genus Nardostachys under current and future climatic conditions based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. These data were used to study the effects of climate variables.

Results: The results show that the potential distribution of the two species will increase, thus more suitable habitats will be present in China. The suitable habitat for N. chinensis presents a relatively stable growth compared to N. jatamansi. In addition, precipitation plays a crucial role in modeling the effects of climate change on the genus Nardostachys. This study provides theoretical guidance for the cultivation of N. chinensis.

RevDate: 2019-04-26

Bouvet L, D Chassard (2019)

Fighting global warming: it's time to reduce waste!.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Tong S, K Ebi (2019)

Preventing and mitigating health risks of climate change.

Environmental research, 174:9-13 pii:S0013-9351(19)30221-X [Epub ahead of print].

Global environmental changes, driven by the consequences of human activities and population growth, are altering our planet in ways that pose current threats to human health, with the magnitude of these threats projected to increase over coming decades if additional, proactive actions are not taken. Global changes, unprecedented in their geospatial and temporal scales, include climate change, marine pollution, ozone layer depletion, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate change is the best studied. The health risks of a changing climate will become increasingly urgent as climate change affects the quantity and quality of food and water, increases air pollution, alters the distribution of vectors/pathogens and disease transmission dynamics, and reduces eco-physical buffering against extreme weather and climate events. Health systems urgently need to be improved to effectively address these emerging challenges. This paper provides an overview of the health consequences of climate change, and discusses how health risks can be minimized and avoided via mitigation and adaptation pathways.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Legault S, Houle D, Plouffe A, et al (2019)

Perceptions of U.S. and Canadian maple syrup producers toward climate change, its impacts, and potential adaptation measures.

PloS one, 14(4):e0215511 pii:PONE-D-18-35090.

The production of maple syrup is an important cultural and economic activity directly related to the climate of northeastern North America. As a result, there are signs that climate change could have negative impacts on maple syrup production in the next decades, particularly for regions located at the southern margins of the sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) range. The purpose of this survey study is to present the beliefs and opinions of maple syrup producers of Canada (N = 241) and the U.S. (N = 113) on climate change in general, its impacts on sugar maple health and maple syrup production, and potential adaptation measures. Using conditional inference classification trees, we examined how the socio-economic profile of respondents and the geographic location and size of respondents' sugar bushes shaped the responses of survey participants. While a majority (75%) of respondents are confident that the average temperature on Earth is increasing, less than half (46%) believe that climate change will have negative impacts on maple syrup yield in the next 30 years. Political view was a significant predictor of these results, with respondents at the right right and center-right of the political spectrum being less likely to believe in climate change and less likely to anticipate negative effects of climate change on maple syrup production. In addition, 77% of the participants indicated an interest in adopting adaptation strategies if those could increase maple syrup production. This interest was greater for respondents using vacuum tubing for sap collection than other collection methods. However, for many respondents (particularly in Canada), lack of information was identified as a constraint limiting adaptation to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Malena-Chan R (2019)

A narrative model for exploring climate change engagement among young community leaders.

Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice, 39(4):157-166.

INTRODUCTION: Decades of widespread knowledge about climate change have not translated into adequate action to address impacts on population health and health equity in Canada. Research has shown that context-based perceptions and interpretations mediate engagement. Exploring climate change engagement involves inquiry into contextual experience.

METHODS: This qualitative study has employed narrative methodology to interpret the meaning of climate change among community leaders in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, age 20-40 (n = 10). Climate change narratives were explored both structurally and thematically.

RESULTS: A model was developed to organize results and to describe concepts of fidelity and dissonance within participant narratives. Findings suggested that knowledge of climate change and personal motivation to act did not preclude narrative dissonance, which served as a barrier to a meaningful personal response. Dissonance can result where internal and external barriers mediate mobilization at moments in the plot: (1) moving from knowledge of the challenge to a sense of agency about it; (2) from agency to a sense of responsibility to choose to address it; (3) from responsibility to a sense of capacity to produce desirable outcomes despite contextual challenges; and (4) from capacity to a moral sense of activation in context. Without narrative fidelity, meaningful mobilization can be hindered.

CONCLUSION: A narrative model is useful for exploring climate change engagement and highlights opportunities for a population health approach to address the conditions that hinder meaningful mobilization. By framing climate change narratives with emotional and moral logic, population health framing could help young leaders overcome internal and external barriers to engagement.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

MacIntyre E, Khanna S, Darychuk A, et al (2019)

Evidence synthesis - Evaluating risk communication during extreme weather and climate change: a scoping review.

Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice, 39(4):142-156.

INTRODUCTION: Communicating risk to the public continues to be a challenge for public health practitioners working in the area of climate change. We conducted a scoping literature review on the evaluation of risk communication for extreme weather and climate change to inform local public health messaging, consistent with requirements under the Ontario Public Health Standards (OPHS), which were updated in 2018 to include effective communication regarding climate change and extreme weather.

METHODS: Search strategies were developed by library information specialists and used to retrieve peer-reviewed academic and grey literature from bibliographic databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus and CINAHL) and Google country specific searches, respectively. The search strategy was validated through a workshop with experts and community stakeholders, with expertise in environment, health, emergency management and risk communication.

RESULTS: A total of 43 articles were included. These articles addressed issues such as: climate change (n = 22), flooding (n = 12), hurricane events (n = 5), extreme heat (n = 2), and wild fires (n = 2). Studies were predominantly from the US (n = 14), Europe (n = 6) and Canada (n = 5).

CONCLUSION: To meet the OPHS 2018, public health practitioners need to engage in effective risk communication to motivate local actions that mitigate the effects of extreme weather and climate change. Based on the scoping review, risk communication efforts during short-term extreme weather events appear to be more effective than efforts to communicate risk around climate change. This distinction could highlight a unique opportunity for public health to adapt strategies commonly used for extreme weather to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Kingsley M, EcoHealth Ontario (2019)

Commentary - Climate change, health and green space co-benefits.

Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice, 39(4):131-135.

We examined two of humanity's present-day challenges, climate change and chronic diseases, in relation to the co-benefits that green spaces provide to human health and the environment. The reduction of several chronic diseases and associated symptoms, including anxiety, obesity and cardiovascular disease, has been associated with the presence of and access to green space. Green spaces also contribute to a number of environmental health benefits and have been shown to reduce the likelihood of flooding, improve air quality and provide cooling and shade. These co-benefits address both the symptoms of several chronic diseases and associated risk factors along with the environmental and health impacts of climate change. This article explores how to maximize the co-benefits of green spaces through two examples of multi-sectoral collaborations. With these two examples, we have provided a model of collective collaboration that aims to address complex issues, such as climate change and chronic diseases, through the common intervention of green spaces.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Richards G, Frehs J, Myers E, et al (2019)

Commentary - The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program: Indigenous Climate Leaders' Championing Adaptation Effort.

Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice, 39(4):127-130.

The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program (CCHAP) is a program within the First Nations Inuit Health Branch of Indigenous Services Canada (which was previously under the responsibility of Health Canada). The CCHAP supports Inuit and First Nation communities in mitigating and adapting to the health impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change on Indigenous health can be observed in multiple areas including, but not limited to, food security, cultural medicines, mental health and landbased practices. This program seeks to address the needs of climate change and health in First Nation and Inuit communities to support resiliency and adaptation to a changing climate both now and in the future through its emphasis on youth and capacity building. The commentary is based on the Program's eleven years of experience working with and for Indigenous communities and provides an overview of the CCHAP model and the work it has and continues to support. This paper demonstrates three examples of community-based projects to mitigate and adapt to the health impacts of climate change to demonstrate climate change resiliency within Indigenous communities.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Kipp A, Cunsolo A, Vodden K, et al (2019)

At-a-glance - Climate change impacts on health and wellbeing in rural and remote regions across Canada: a synthesis of the literature.

Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice, 39(4):122-126.

This article provides a synthesis of the forthcoming first order draft of the Canadian Government's National Assessment on Climate Change 'Rural and Remote' chapter, highlighting key health concerns from the literature associated with climate change in rural and remote regions, as well as existing and future adaptation strategies. To support the health and wellbeing of those experiencing the negative effects of climate change, and utilizing systematic search processes, this synthesis article highlights the importance of considering the specific socio-cultural, economic, and geographic elements and existing expertise of individuals and communities in rural and remote regions.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Cunsolo A, SL Harper (2019)

Editorial - Climate change and health: a grand challenge and grand opportunity for public health in Canada.

Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice, 39(4):119-121.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Wang B, Deveson ED, Waters C, et al (2019)

Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks.

The Science of the total environment, 668:947-957.

Climate is a major limiting factor for insect distributions and it is expected that a changing climate will likely alter spatial patterns of pest outbreaks. The Australian plague locust (APL) Chortoicetes terminifera, is the most economically important locust species in Australia. Invasions cause large scale economic damage to agricultural crops and pastures. Understanding the regional-scale and long-term dynamics is a prerequisite to develop effective control and preventive management strategies. In this study, we used a 32-year locust survey database to uncover the relationship between historical bioclimatic variables and spatial seasonal outbreaks by developing two machine learning species distribution models (SDMs), random forest and boosted regression trees. The explanatory variables were ranked by contribution to the generated models. The bio-climate models were then projected into a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5) using downscaled 34 global climate models (GCMs) to assess how climate change may alter APL seasonal distribution patterns in eastern Australia. Our results show that the model for the distribution of spring outbreaks performed better than those for summer and autumn, based on statistical evaluation criteria. The spatial models of seasonal outbreaks indicate that the areas subject to APL outbreaks were likely to decrease in all seasons. Multi-GCM ensemble means show the largest decrease in area was for spring outbreaks, reduced by 93-94% by 2071-2090, while the area of summer outbreaks decreased by 78-90%, and 67-74% for autumn outbreaks. The bioclimatic variables could explain 78-98% outbreak areas change. This study represents an important step toward the assessment of the effects of the changing climate on locust outbreaks and can help inform future priorities for regional mitigation efforts in the context of global climate change in eastern Australia.

RevDate: 2019-04-25

Fonseca AR, JA Santos (2019)

Predicting hydrologic flows under climate change: The Tâmega Basin as an analog for the Mediterranean region.

The Science of the total environment, 668:1013-1024.

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of the Tâmega River basin, northern Portugal, are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic scenarios derived from both observational climate databases for a recent past period (1950-2015) and EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the future (2021-2100). Future climate change scenarios are based on an ensemble of five climate model chain experiments and on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin-mean annual temperatures are ca. 10% or 20% warmer than in recent past climate (12.4 °C) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Furthermore, basin-mean annual precipitation decreases by approximately 8% or 13%, when compared to recent past (1255 mm). The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) is applied to the historical data and to each of the five model simulations separately so as to simulate potential changes in flowrates. The model is calibrated and validated using 5 hydrometric stations, achieving satisfactory results regarding flowrate simulation. A reconstruction of flowrates within the entire river basin and over the historical period is accomplished, which is particularly useful when observed data is missing. The projected climate change impacts on annual flowrates reveal a decrease from 18% to 28% relative to observations (70.9 m3 s-1). These findings provide valuable information for the future management and planning of water resources (water security) and can be largely generalized not only to other basins in Portugal, but also over most of Southern Europe and throughout the Mediterranean Basin, where significant warming and drying trends are widespread footprints of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-04-24

Lehmkuhl D (2019)

[Climate change and its significance in the healthcare community: history, landmarks, and major players].

Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz pii:10.1007/s00103-019-02935-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Since the early 1990s, science has addressed anthropogenic climate change as a health issue. From about 2000 onwards, the scientific literature and evidence on the health effects of climate change has been rapidly increasing. Global warming is now considered an "existential threat to humankind," and leading health organizations call climate change "the defining issue for public health in the 21 century" or a "public health emergency."In recent years, climate change as a health issue has become more and more prominent in health communities on the national and international level.The growing importance of this issue in the international health community and the stages, milestones, and topics of this development are described and what health professionals and health organizations can do to protect health from climate change is demonstrated. The decisive role of The Lancet and the reports of its international commissions, the British Medical Journal (BMJ), and the World Health Organisation (WHO) in setting the agenda is underlined. Important actors, organizations, initiatives as well as new concepts like "planetary health" and "planetary boundaries" are introduced. In the German health sector, however, climate change - apart from niches - has not been much of an issue so far. Neither in the health sector, climate policies, nor climate movement the connections between climate change and health are sufficiently understood, considered, or implemented. A look beyond borders shows what might be possible and necessary in view of the possibly "greatest crisis we have ever faced."The article is based on the author's experience, cooperation, and exchange with parties that are engaged with the issue and on years of literature research. He initiated the campaign of German doctors calling on their pension funds to divest from fossil fuels and is a founding and present board member of the "German Alliance on Health and Climate Change," which was founded 2017.

RevDate: 2019-04-24

Kendrovski V, O Schmoll (2019)

Priorities for protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region: recent regional activities.

Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz pii:10.1007/s00103-019-02943-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Evidence of the impact of climate change on health is growing. Health systems need to be prepared and gradually adapt to the effects of climate change, including extreme weather events.Fossil fuel combustion as the driver of climate change poses a tremendous burden of disease. In turn, cutting greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors will achieve health co-benefits. If all countries meet the Paris Agreement by 2030, the annual number of avoidable premature deaths could total 138,000 across the entire European Region of the World Health Organization (WHO).Several international frameworks promote a stronger commitment by countries to implementing the necessary adaptations in the health sector and to addressing health considerations in adaptation measures in other sectors. The WHO has a mandate from its member states to identify solutions and help prevent or reduce health impacts, including those from climate change.National governments are continuing to establish public health adaptation measures, which provide a rationale for and trigger action on climate change by the health community. Effective national responses to climate risks require strategic analyses of current and anticipated threats. Health professionals need to play a proactive role in promoting health arguments and evidence in the formulation of national climate change adaptation and mitigation responses. To this end, country capacities need to be further strengthened to identify and address local health risks posed by climate change and to develop, implement and evaluate health-focused interventions through integrated approaches. Building climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health care facilities is an essential pillar of health sector leadership to address climate change.

RevDate: 2019-04-24

Gómez-Gras D, Linares C, de Caralt S, et al (2019)

Response diversity in Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages facing climate change: Insights from a multispecific thermotolerance experiment.

Ecology and evolution, 9(7):4168-4180 pii:ECE35045.

Climate change threatens coastal benthic communities on a global scale. However, the potential effects of ongoing warming on mesophotic temperate reefs at the community level remain poorly understood. Investigating how different members of these communities will respond to the future expected environmental conditions is, therefore, key to anticipating their future trajectories and developing specific management and conservation strategies. Here, we examined the responses of some of the main components of the highly diverse Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages to thermal stress. We performed thermotolerance experiments with different temperature treatments (from 26 to 29°C) with 10 species from different phyla (three anthozoans, six sponges and one ascidian) and different structural roles. Overall, we observed species-specific contrasting responses to warming regardless of phyla or growth form. Moreover, the responses ranged from highly resistant species to sensitive species and were mostly in agreement with previous field observations from mass mortality events (MMEs) linked to Mediterranean marine heat waves. Our results unravel the diversity of responses to warming in coralligenous outcrops and suggest the presence of potential winners and losers in the face of climate change. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accounting for species-specific vulnerabilities and response diversity when forecasting the future trajectories of temperate benthic communities in a warming ocean.

RevDate: 2019-04-23

Hopkinson NS, Hart N, Jenkins G, et al (2019)

Climate change and lung health: presidential failure, professional responsibility.

RevDate: 2019-04-23

Diffenbaugh NS, M Burke (2019)

Global warming has increased global economic inequality.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1816020116 [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17-31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is >90% likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries' energy consumption.

RevDate: 2019-04-22

Thomas K, Hardy RD, Lazrus H, et al (2019)

Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review.

Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change, 10(2):e565.

The varied effects of recent extreme weather events around the world exemplify the uneven impacts of climate change on populations, even within relatively small geographic regions. Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results from a range of social, economic, historical, and political factors, all of which operate at multiple scales. While adaptation to climate change has been the dominant focus of policy and research agendas, it is essential to ask as well why some communities and peoples are disproportionately exposed to and affected by climate threats. The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which we approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology). Social scientific approaches to human vulnerability draw vital attention to the root causes of climate change threats and the reasons that people are forced to adapt to them. Because vulnerability is a multidimensional process rather than an unchanging state, a dynamic social approach to vulnerability is most likely to improve mitigation and adaptation planning efforts. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation.

RevDate: 2019-04-22

Hernandez Y, Barbosa P, Corral S, et al (2018)

An institutional analysis to address climate change adaptation in Tenerife (Canary Islands).

Environmental science & policy, 89:184-191.

Heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks have been acquiring more frequency and intensity in the Canary Islands during the last decades. Both climatic hazards are known to produce impacts on human health such as mortality (due to heat waves) and morbidity (due to dusty weather). This work addresses possible climate adaptation policies in Tenerife assuming the increasing impact of heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks in the island under a climate change scenario. It explores the institutional setting of climate change adaptation planning in Tenerife and evaluates the statu quo of adaptation planning in the island through the engagement of key social actors. An historical review of the local and regional press articles and legislation, an in-depth round of interviews, together with questionnaires to the main social actors allows framing the social and political context in which climate change adaptation in Tenerife is embedded. Key social actors were engaged, including international organisations, atmospheric research centres, local Universities, regional and insular governments, trade unions, and environmental NGOs, among others. The main obstacles mentioned by the social actors that hinder the development of an effective climate adaptation policy address scientific knowledge, data collection and policy making, focusing on the uncertainty of climate models, the lack of epidemiological data and contrasting opinions regarding the existing climate adaptation policies. Public participation, mainstreaming of climate policies and an integrated approach between mitigation and adaptation plans were identified as key policy issues. The outcomes of this study could be meaningful for climate adaptation initiatives at local or regional level, such as the Global Covenant of Mayors, that intend to promote climate resilience through the setup of climate adaptation strategies and plans at municipality level.

RevDate: 2019-04-22

Feng X, Liu C, Xie F, et al (2019)

Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation.

Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain), 145(718):303-317.

Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high-resolution (16 km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal-mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°-30°N) and southern subtropics-to-midlatitudes (30°-40°S). The probability distribution function (PDF) changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; ≤1 mm/day) and heavy precipitation (HP; ≥30 mm/day) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1-30 mm/day) from Tropics to midlatitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is an HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the Tropics (20°S to 20°N), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e. HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except for the Sahara Desert. In the primary precipitation zones in the subtropics (20°-40°) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid-to-high latitude belt (40°-70°), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.

RevDate: 2019-04-21

Zhang K, Pan Q, Yu D, et al (2019)

Systemically modeling the relationship between climate change and wheat aphid abundance.

The Science of the total environment, 674:392-400 pii:S0048-9697(19)31670-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change influences all living beings. Wheat aphids deplete the nutritional value of wheat and affect the production of wheat in changing climate. In this study, we attempt to explain the ecological mechanisms of how climate change affects wheat aphids by simulating the relationship between climate and the abundance of wheat aphids, which will not only aid in improving wheat aphid forecasting and the effectiveness of prevention and treatment, but also help mitigate food crises. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) are an effective tool for portraying complex systems. Using Sitobion avenae and climatological data collected in China, we made use of differential evolution (DE) algorithms to construct FCM models that directly illustrate the effect of climate on wheat aphid abundance. The relationships among climate and wheat aphids at different growth stages (I-III instar larvae, IV instar larvae with wings, IV instar larvae without wings, adult with wings, adult without wings) were established. The analysis results from the FCM models show that temperature positively influences wheat aphids most. Moreover, these models can be used to determine the numerical value of each climate factor and the abundance of wheat aphids quantitatively. Furthermore, the two overall relationship models between climate and wheat aphids were constructed and the experimental results show that natural enemies and highest daily temperature affect wheat aphids most. Natural enemies and highest daily temperature exert negative and positive impacts on wheat aphids respectively. Some interrelationships among wheat aphids at all growth stages and the internal relationships among climate factors were also shown.

RevDate: 2019-04-20

Ahmadi M, Hemami MR, Kaboli M, et al (2019)

Extinction risks of a Mediterranean neo-endemism complex of mountain vipers triggered by climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):6332 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-42792-9.

Climate change is among the most important drivers of biodiversity decline through shift or shrinkage in suitable habitat of species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are under extreme risk from climate changes given their evolutionary history and geographic distribution. In this study, we divided all Montivipera species into three phylogenetic-geographic Montivipera clades (PGMC; Bornmuelleri, Raddei and Xanthina) and applied an ensemble ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach under different climatic scenarios to assess changes in projected suitable habitats of these species. Based on the predicted range losses, we assessed the projected extinction risk of the species relative to IUCN Red List Criteria. Our result revealed a strong decline in suitable habitats for all PGMCs (63.8%, 79.3% and 96.8% for Xanthina, Raddei and Bornmuelleri, respectively, by 2070 and under 8.5 RCP scenario) with patterns of altitudinal range shifts in response to projected climate change. We found that the mountains close to the Mediterranean Sea are exposed to the highest threats in the future (84.6 ± 9.1 percent range loss). We also revealed that disjunct populations of Montivipera will be additionally highly isolated and fragmented in the future. We argue that leveraging climate niche projections into the risk assessment provides the opportunity to implement IUCN criteria and better assess forthcoming extinction risks of species.

RevDate: 2019-04-18

Purakayastha TJ, Bera T, Bhaduri D, et al (2019)

A review on biochar modulated soil condition improvements and nutrient dynamics concerning crop yields: Pathways to climate change mitigation and global food security.

Chemosphere, 227:345-365 pii:S0045-6535(19)30615-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The beneficial role of biochar on improvement of soil quality, C sequestration, and enhancing crop yield is widely reported. As such there is not much consolidated information available linking biochar modulated soil condition improvement and soil nutrient availability on crop yields. The present review paper addresses the above issues by compilation of world literature on biochar and a new dimension is introduced in this review by performing a meta-analysis of published data by using multivariate statistical analysis. Hence this review is a new in its kind and is useful to the broad spectrum of readers. Generally, alkalinity in biochar increases with increase in pyrolysis temperature and majority of the biochar is alkaline in nature except a few which are acidic. The N content in many biochar was reported to be more than 4% as well as less than 0.5%. Poultry litter biochar is a rich source of P (3.12%) and K (7.40%), while paper mill sludge biochar is higher in Ca content (31.1%) and swine solids biochar in Zn (49810 mg kg-1), and Fe (74800 mg kg-1) contents. The effect of biochar on enhancing soil pH was higher in Alfisol, Ferrosol and Acrisol. Soil application of biochar could on an average increase (78%), decrease (16%), or show no effect on crop yields under different soil types. Biochar produced at a lower pyrolysis temperature could deliver greater soil nutrient availabilities than that prepared at higher temperature. Principal component analysis (PCA) of available data shows an inverse relationship between [pyrolysis temperature and soil pH], and [biochar application rate and soil cation exchange capacity]. The PCA also suggests that the original soil properties and application rate strongly control crop yield stimulations via biochar amendments. Finally, biochar application shows net soil C gains while also serving for increased plant biomass production that strongly recommends biochar as a useful soil amendment. Therefore, the application of biochar to soils emerges as a 'win-win strategy' for sustainable waste management, climate change mitigation and food security.

RevDate: 2019-04-18

Schmidt CW (2019)

The Future of Stunting: Potential Scenarios under Climate Change.

Environmental health perspectives, 127(4):44002.

RevDate: 2019-04-18

Schoierer J, Mertes H, Wershofen B, et al (2019)

[Training modules on climate change, heat, and health for medical assistants and nurses in outpatient care].

Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz pii:10.1007/s00103-019-02942-w [Epub ahead of print].

The number of heatwaves is going to increase due to climate change and will pose a high health risk especially for elderly people. Additional risk factors like immobility, the need for care, chronic and acute diseases (worsening of symptoms), and the intake of medications lead to an increased sensitivity to heat in this particular age group. Nursing staff and medical assistants working in general practices are two important professions to reach the risk group during heatwaves and provide preventive and curative care.The "Klinikum der Universität München" has developed an interprofessional blended-learning program to sensitize for this topic and to enable those two professional groups to react adequately to heat events. It combines independent learning with the help of online videos and presentations and a face-to-face component for the practical application of knowledge through examples. The concept, the results, as well as the conclusion of the project, which completed in October 2018, are presented in this article.Educational programs are part of the adaption strategies to heat events. The "Recommendations for the creation of Heat Action Plans for the Protection of Human Health" state that advanced trainings and education of healthcare and social workers help to communicate relevant content to adequately act during heat periods. The developed educational program fulfills this demand.To enable the widest possible use, the training materials are available free of charge and can be downloaded from .

RevDate: 2019-04-17

Smith MA, Sullender BK, Koeppen WC, et al (2019)

An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc.

PloS one, 14(4):e0214573 pii:PONE-D-18-12017.

Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003-2012) to a future time period (2030-2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines.

RevDate: 2019-04-17

Lippi CA, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Loor MEFB, et al (2019)

Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(4):e0007322 pii:PNTD-D-18-01313 [Epub ahead of print].

Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.

RevDate: 2019-04-17

Sanz-Menéndez L, L Cruz-Castro (2019)

The credibility of scientific communication sources regarding climate change: A population-based survey experiment.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

This article analyses whether different institutional sources of scientific information have an impact on its credibility. Through a population-based survey experiment of a national representative sample of the Spanish public, we measure the credibility that citizens attribute to scientific information on the evolution of CO2 emissions disclosed by different institutional sources (business associations, government, non-government environmental organisations, international bodies and national research institutions). The findings show that an institutional credibility gap exists in science communication. We also investigate the factors accounting for the credibility of the different institutional sources by examining variables related to knowledge, interest, trust, reputation, deference, attitudes, values and personal characteristics. Exploratory regression analyses reveal that identical variables can produce different effects on the credibility of scientific information, depending on the institutional source to which it is attributed.

RevDate: 2019-04-17

Mücke HG, W Straff (2019)

[Increasing weather extremes are reasons to take health adaptation to climate change seriously].

RevDate: 2019-04-17

Tang L, Wang R, He KS, et al (2019)

Throwing light on dark diversity of vascular plants in China: predicting the distribution of dark and threatened species under global climate change.

PeerJ, 7:e6731 pii:6731.

Background: As global climate change accelerates, ecologists and conservationists are increasingly investigating changes in biodiversity and predicting species distribution based on species observed at sites, but rarely consider those plant species that could potentially inhabit but are absent from these areas (i.e., the dark diversity and its distribution). Here, we estimated the dark diversity of vascular plants in China and picked up threatened dark species from the result, and applied maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to project current and future distributions of those dark species in their potential regions (those regions that have these dark species).

Methods: We used the Beals probability index to estimate dark diversity in China based on available species distribution information and explored which environmental variables had significant impacts on dark diversity by incorporating bioclimatic data into the random forest (RF) model. We collected occurrence data of threatened dark species (Eucommia ulmoides, Liriodendron chinense, Phoebe bournei, Fagus longipetiolata, Amentotaxus argotaenia, and Cathaya argyrophylla) and related bioclimatic information that can be used to predict their distributions. In addition, we used MaxEnt modeling to project their distributions in suitable areas under future (2050 and 2070) climate change scenarios.

Results: We found that every study region's dark diversity was lower than its observed species richness. In these areas, their numbers of dark species are ranging from 0 to 215, with a generally increasing trend from western regions to the east. RF results showed that temperature variables had a more significant effect on dark diversity than those associated with precipitation. The results of MaxEnt modeling showed that most threatened dark species were climatically suitable in their potential regions from current to 2070.

Discussions: The results of this study provide the first ever dark diversity patterns concentrated in China, even though it was estimated at the provincial scale. A combination of dark diversity and MaxEnt modeling is an effective way to shed light on the species that make up the dark diversity, such as projecting the distribution of specific dark species under global climate change. Besides, the combination of dark diversity and species distribution models (SDMs) may also be of value for ex situ conservation, ecological restoration, and species invasion prevention in the future.

RevDate: 2019-04-17

Fletcher S, Lickley M, K Strzepek (2019)

Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning.

Nature communications, 10(1):1782 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-09677-x.

Water resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available. Flexible strategies in which infrastructure is proactively designed to be changed in the future have the potential to meet water supply needs without expensive over-building. Evaluating tradeoffs between flexible and traditional static planning approaches requires extension of current paradigms for planning under climate change uncertainty which do not assess opportunities to reduce uncertainty in the future. We develop a new planning framework that assesses the potential to learn about regional climate change over time and therefore evaluates the appropriateness of flexible approaches today. We demonstrate it on a reservoir planning problem in Mombasa, Kenya. This approach identifies opportunities to reliably use incremental approaches, enabling adaptation investments to reach more vulnerable communities with fewer resources.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
21454 NE 143rd Street
Woodinville, WA 98077

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )