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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 17 Jan 2019 at 01:46 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-01-15

Popkin G (2019)

How much can forests fight climate change?.

Nature, 565(7739):280-282.

RevDate: 2019-01-15

Bruine de Bruin W, MG Morgan (2019)

Reflections on an interdisciplinary collaboration to inform public understanding of climate change, mitigation, and impacts.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1803726115 [Epub ahead of print].

We describe two interdisciplinary projects in which natural scientists and engineers, as well as psychologists and other behavioral scientists, worked together to better communicate about climate change, including mitigation and impacts. One project focused on understanding and informing public perceptions of an emerging technology to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants, as well as other low-carbon electricity-generation technologies. A second project focused on public understanding about carbon dioxide's residence time in the atmosphere. In both projects, we applied the mental-models approach, which aims to design effective communications by using insights from interdisciplinary teams of experts and mental models elicited from intended audience members. In addition to summarizing our findings, we discuss the process of interdisciplinary collaboration that we pursued in framing and completing both projects. We conclude by describing what we think we have learned about the conditions that supported our ongoing interdisciplinary collaborations.

RevDate: 2019-01-14

Rolo V, G Moreno (2019)

Shrub encroachment and climate change increase the exposure to drought of Mediterranean wood-pastures.

The Science of the total environment, 660:550-558 pii:S0048-9697(19)30035-X [Epub ahead of print].

Pastures and wood-pastures, livestock grazing systems where scattered trees and shrubs co-occur, are essential for global food supply. The grazing value of these systems, which is closely related to soil moisture, is increasingly threatened by changes in climate variability and vegetation structure, mainly by shrub encroachment. However, it remains relatively unexplored to what extent the concurrent effect of climate change and shrub encroachment will affect the exposure to drought stress of Mediterranean wood-pastures - defined as a period where soil water availability drops below 40%. Here we combined soil moisture measurements and a process-based water balance model to assess the effect of shrubs, a shallow- and a deep-rooted, on soil moisture under current (2009-2012) and future weather (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Soil moisture was measured and predicted in six sites, three for each type of shrub, where two adjacent plots were selected, a control and an encroached plot. During 2009-2012, encroached plots had more extended droughts (29 and 48 days longer in sites encroached with shallow- and deep-rooted shrubs, respectively) and higher usage of deep water (~30%) than control plots. Under future climatic projections, our results show a consistent increase in the duration, an earlier onset of drought and higher reliance on shallow water with time, particularly under the worst climatic scenario. Encroached plots showed higher inter-annual variability than control plots, particularly in plots encroached with the deep-rooted shrub. Our results indicate that the presence of shrubs magnify the effect of climate. This suggests a likely increase in the exposure of Mediterranean wood-pastures to drought if processes of shrub encroachment persist in a context of climatic changes where earlier and more prolonged droughts will become more frequent.

RevDate: 2019-01-14

Zheng K, Wei JZ, Pei JY, et al (2019)

Impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation variation in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

The Science of the total environment, 660:236-244 pii:S0048-9697(19)30022-1 [Epub ahead of print].

China initiated the "Grain for Green Project" in 1999 to mitigate soil erosion. The vegetation cover of the Chinese Loess Plateau, one of the most erosive regions in the world, has been greatly increased. However, studies on quantitatively investigating the climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage change were rare. In this study, spatio-temporal changes in vegetation coverage were investigated using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over 2000-2016. And a new method was introduced using Net Primary Productivity (NPP) model and relationship between NPP and NDVI to quantitatively and spatially distinguish the NDVI affected by climate change and human activities. Results showed that mean NDVI value over 2009-2016 were 14.46% greater than that over 2000-2007. In order to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation change, an NPP model suitable for the grassland of the Chinese Loess Plateau was identified using biomass observations from field survey and literature. The NDVI affected by climate change (NDVIclimate) was estimated by the NPP model and the relationship between NPP and NDVI. And the NDVI affected by human activities (NDVIhuman) was calculated by actual NDVI minus NDVIclimate. Comparison of the two stages showed that human activities and climate change contributed 42.35% and 57.65% respectively to the ΔNDVI on grassland in the Loess Plateau. After analysis of numerous NDVIhuman related factors, the slopes restored by the "Grain for Green Project" was considered the main influence factor of human activities.

RevDate: 2019-01-14

Li G, Sun S, Han J, et al (2019)

Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015.

The Science of the total environment, 660:177-187 pii:S0048-9697(19)30034-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Remote sensing based vegetation index provides a practical method for the monitoring of vegetation dynamics at regional and global scales. Here, using a long-term remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we quantified the vegetation changes in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the last three decades (1982-2015), which includes the period before the Chinese"Grain for Green Program"(GGP) was launched (1982-1999), and the period after the GGP (1999-2015). The correlations between the NDVI and four climate related variables, i.e., precipitation, temperature, root-soil moisture (RSM), and a drought proxy-standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI), were also examined. The results indicated that, (i) the GGP strongly changed the vegetation in the LP. The growing-season mean NDVI (GSM-NDVI) and the annual mean NDVI (AM-NDVI) decreased slightly before the GGP launched in 1999, with slopes of -3.38 × 10-3 and - 8.00 × 10-4 year-1, respectively. However, they showed slight and significant (p < 0.05) increases after the GGP, with slopes of 4.75 × 10-3 and 2.32 × 10-3 year-1, respectively. (ii) Climate change (i.e., warming and drying) resulted in adverse effects on vegetation in the LP during the period before the GGP. However, the observed changes (i.e., wetting and reduced drought) exerted positive effects on the vegetation during the period after the GGP. (iii) Inter-annual variations of spatially averaged NDVI over the LP were primarily determined by RSM rather than any other climate related variables. In the southeastern LP, the inter-annual variation of GSM-NDVI was mainly determined by precipitation and SEDI, while the inter-annual variation of AM-NDVI was mainly caused by SEDI and RSM. Inter-annual variations of both GSM-NDVI and AM-NDVI were mainly determined by SEDI and RSM in the northwestern LP, and by temperature in the southwestern LP.

RevDate: 2019-01-14

Samplonius JM, C Both (2018)

Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species.

Current biology : CB pii:S0960-9822(18)31593-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

RevDate: 2019-01-14

Verheyen J, R Stoks (2019)

Temperature variation makes an ectotherm more sensitive to global warming unless thermal evolution occurs.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

1.To assess long-term impacts of global warming on species there is growing interest in latitudinal intraspecific patterns in thermal adaptation. Yet, while both mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs) are expected to increase under global warming, latitudinal differences in the effects of DTFs have not been documented. 2.We tested whether low-latitude populations of an ectotherm deal better with greater DTF than high-latitude populations, especially at a high mean temperature close to the optimal temperature for growth where DTF causes exposure to extreme high temperatures. We evaluated the impact of DTFs when assessing the effect of gradual thermal evolution at the high latitude with a space-for-time substitution. 3.We compared effects of both mean temperatures (20°C and 24°C) and DTFs (constant = 0°C, low = 5°C and high = 10°C) on growth rates between low-latitude and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common-garden experiment. 4.DTFs, if anything, reduced growth and were generally stressful as indicated by reductions in body condition, antioxidant defense and metabolic rate, and increases in oxidative damage. Most negative effects of DTFs were only present at a mean of 24°C when too high temperatures were reached during a daily cycle. Notably, while 4°C warming was beneficial in terms of growth rate at both latitudes at a constant temperature regime, this changed in a negative effect at high DTF. Moreover, this modulating effect of the mean temperature by DTF differed between latitudes indicating local thermal adaptation. While 4°C warming at low DTF still caused faster growth in low-latitude larvae, it already slowed growth in high-latitude larvae. This supports the emerging insight that warming would increase growth in high-latitude larvae in absence of DTF, yet would decrease growth in the more realistic scenarios with DTF. In contrast, a space-for-time substitution approach suggested that under gradual thermal evolution, the evolved high-latitude larvae would no longer suffer a growth reduction in the presence of DTF. 5.Our study provided important proof-of-principle that jointly integrating gradual thermal evolution and the expected increase in DTF generates opposing predictions of effects of global warming on this ectotherm. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-01-13

Davies WJ (2019)

Multiple temperature effects on phenology and body size in wild butterflies predict a complex response to climate change.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Temperature induced alterations in phenology and body size are the cumulative outcome of sequential effects impacting development, and are universal responses to climate change. Most studies have so far focused on phenological responses to warming in multiple taxa across space and time, or the ontogenetic effects of temperature in the laboratory. I here complement this work by investigating shifts in phenology and body size (wing-length) attributable to temperature changes operating over the entire lifespan of the univoltine orange-tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines in a single wild population over 14 generations. Phenology was affected by temperatures during three discrete periods in the year prior to emergence, corresponding to late larval/early pupal life, the onset of the chilling period required to break pupal diapause, and post-diapause pupal development prior to eclosion. Higher temperatures during late larval/early pupal life and post-diapause pupal development advanced the subsequent emergence of the butterflies, whereas higher temperatures at the onset of the chilling period retarded it. The synchronization of the butterflies' emergence schedule increased when pupae were exposed to milder mid-winter temperatures. Wing-length increased with warmer temperatures at distinct points in the early and mid pupal periods; such direct effects of temperature on body size could complement season length effects in explaining the reversal of the temperature-size rule in univoltine insects. The periods during which temperature affected the phenology of the butterfly only partially overlapped those affecting the first flowering date of its host-plants lady's smock Cardamine pratensis and garlic mustard Alliaria petiolata. Observed thermal effects on flowering time, emergence timing and emergence synchronization indicate that phenological convergence as well as phenological mismatching could affect host-plant availability and diet breadth; thermal effects on body size imply that important population-level processes could be impacted through correlated changes in fecundity and dispersal rate. In general, the combined effects of phenological and ontogenetic responses to temperature changes across the whole lifespan will likely be important in modelling the demographic responses of interacting species to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-01-12

Xu Y, Bosch DJ, Wagena MB, et al (2019)

Meeting Water Quality Goals by Spatial Targeting of Best Management Practices under Climate Change.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-018-01133-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Agricultural production is a major source of nonpoint source pollution contributing 44% of total nitrogen (N) discharged to the Chesapeake Bay. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) established the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program to control this problem. For the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the TMDL program requires that nitrogen loadings be reduced by 25% by 2025. Climate change may affect the cost of achieving such reductions. Thus, it is necessary to develop cost-effective strategies to meet water quality goals under climate change. We investigate landscape targeting of best management practices (BMPs) based on topographic index (TI) to determine how targeting would affect costs of meeting N loading goals for Mahantango watershed, PA. We use the results from two climate models, CRCM and WRFG, and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models (Ensemble Mean) to estimate expected climate changes and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model to predict crop yields and N export. Costs of targeting and uniform placement of BMPs across the entire study area (423 ha) were compared under historical and future climate scenarios. Targeting BMP placement based on TI classes reduces costs for achieving water quality goals relative to uniform placement strategies under historical and future conditions. Compared with uniform placement, targeting methods reduce costs by 30, 34, and 27% under historical climate as estimated by the Ensemble Mean, CRCM and WRFG, respectively, and by 37, 43, and 33% under the corresponding estimates of future climate scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-01-12

Walsh BS, Parratt SR, Hoffmann AA, et al (2019)

The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(18)30283-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Rising global temperatures are threatening biodiversity. Studies on the impact of temperature on natural populations usually use lethal or viability thresholds, termed the 'critical thermal limit' (CTL). However, this overlooks important sublethal impacts of temperature that could affect species' persistence. Here we discuss a critical but overlooked trait: fertility, which can deteriorate at temperatures less severe than an organism's lethal limit. We argue that studies examining the ecological and evolutionary impacts of climate change should consider the 'thermal fertility limit' (TFL) of species; we propose that a framework for the design of TFL studies across taxa be developed. Given the importance of fertility for population persistence, understanding how climate change affects TFLs is vital for the assessment of future biodiversity impacts.

RevDate: 2019-01-12

Shezi B, Mathee A, Siziba W, et al (2019)

Environmental health practitioners potentially play a key role in helping communities adapt to climate change.

BMC public health, 19(1):54 pii:10.1186/s12889-018-6378-5.

BACKGROUND: Vulnerable population groups in South Africa, especially those living in poverty, young children, women, the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases, are susceptible to new or exacerbated health threats resulting from climate change. Environmental Health Practitioners (EHPs) can play an important role in helping communities adapt to climate change health impacts, however, effective coordination of this requires further understanding of their roles in implementing climate change-related adaptation actions in communities.

METHODS: A cross-sectional survey using convenience sampling was undertaken at the January 2017 conference for EHPs hosted by the South African Institute of Environmental Health in Cape Town. All EHPs who attended the conference were invited to complete a study questionnaire that requested information on participant demographics, as well as climate change related-knowledge, practices and perceptions.

RESULTS: Majority of participating EHPs (n = 48; 72.8%) had received formal or informal training on climate change and health. Thirty-nine percent of EHPs indicated that they had a climate change and health-related committee / working group in their department, a policy or strategy (41.0%) and budget allocated for climate change and health-related work (51.5%). A total of 33.3% had participated in climate change-related projects. Majority (62.2%) of EHPs believed that they should play a supportive role in addressing climate change while 37.8% believed that EHPs should play a leading role.

CONCLUSIONS: Recognising the need for raising awareness about climate change adaptation as well as implementing appropriate interventions to combat climate-related ill health effects, especially among vulnerable groups, EHPs are well-placed to adopt significant roles in helping communities to adapt to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-01-11

Ullah A, Ahmad I, Ahmad A, et al (2019)

Assessing climate change impacts on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid environments using CSM-CERES-Millet model.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-018-3925-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change adversely affects food security all over the world, especially in developing countries where the increasing population is confronting food insecurity and malnutrition. Crop models can assist stakeholders for assessment of climate change in current and future agricultural production systems. The aim of this study was to use of system analysis approach through CSM-CERES-Millet model to quantify climate change and its impact on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of Punjab, Pakistan. Calibration and evaluation of CERES-Millet were performed with the field observations for pearl millet hybrid 86M86. Mid-century (2040-2069) climate change scenarios for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were generated based on an ensemble of selected five general circulation models (GCMs). The model was calibrated with optimum treatment (15-cm plant spacing and 200 kg N ha-1) using field observations on phenology, growth and grain yield. Thereafter, pearl millet cultivar was evaluated with remaining treatments of plant spacing and nitrogen during 2015 and 2016 in Faisalabad and Layyah. The CERES-Millet model was calibrated very well and predicted the grain yield with 1.14% error. Model valuation results showed that there was a close agreement between the observed and simulated values of grain yield with RMSE ranging from 172 to 193 kg ha-1. The results of future climate scenarios revealed that there would be an increase in Tmin (2.8 °C and 2.9 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) and Tmax (2.5 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) under RCP4.5. For RCP8.5, there would be an increase of 4 °C in Tmin for the semi-arid and arid environment and an increase of 3.7 °C and 3.9 °C in Tmax, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment. The impacts of climate changes showed that pearl millet yield would be reduced by 7 to 10% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in Faisalabad and 10 to 13% in Layyah under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for mid-century. So, CSM-CERES-Millet is a useful tool in assessing the climate change impacts.

RevDate: 2019-01-11

Searchinger TD, Wirsenius S, Beringer T, et al (2019)

Publisher Correction: Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.

In this Letter, the PANGAEA repository was referred to incorrectly in the 'Code availability' and 'Data availability' sections of Methods: the link should be instead of . In addition, the sentence, "However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha-1 yr-1) generates roughly the same benefits as system 1…" should read, "However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha-1 yr-1) generates roughly the same benefits as sugarcane ethanol…" These errors have been corrected in the online versions of the Letter.

RevDate: 2019-01-10

Blennow K, Persson E, J Persson (2019)

Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change?.

PloS one, 14(1):e0210426 pii:PONE-D-17-33278.

Values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place have sometimes been downplayed in the climate change discourse. However, they have been suggested to be not only important to citizens but the values most vulnerable to climate change. Here we test four empirical consequences of the suggestion: (i) at least 50% of the locations citizens' consider to be the most important locations in their municipality are chosen because they represent these values, (ii) locations representing these values have a high probability of being damaged by climate change induced sea level rise, (iii) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe in the local effects of climate change, and (iv) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe that they have experienced the effects of climate change. The tests were made using survey data collected in 2014 from 326 citizens owning property in Höganäs municipality, Sweden, and included values elicited using a new methodology separating instrumental values from end values, and using the former (which strictly speaking should be seen as estimates of usefulness rather than as aims in themselves) as stepping stones to pinpoint the latter, that represent the true interests of the respondents. The results provide the first evidence that, albeit frequent, values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place are not the values most vulnerable to climate change. This in turn indicates a need to further investigate the vulnerability of these values to climate change, using a methodology that clearly distinguishes between instrumental and end values.

RevDate: 2019-01-10

Gul F, Jan D, M Ashfaq (2019)

Assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change on wheat production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-018-04109-7 [Epub ahead of print].

This study involves the climate change impact assessment of wheat producers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. An extensive farm survey of 150 farms was designed. From study area, three districts, namely, Chitral, D.I. Khan, and Peshawar, were selected through multistage sampling process. Yield simulation from Crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) was used for socio-economic impact assessment. Future climate scenarios were generated by selecting five GCMs from latest CMIP5 family with two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, at two carbon concentrations of 499 ppm and 571 ppm, respectively. Yield simulations were analyzed for each GCM. Results of crop model revealed that wheat yield will increase in district Chitral, while in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, yields would be reduced due to climate change. For socio-economic impact assessment, TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment) version 6 was used. Climate change impacts on poverty, net farm returns, and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The analysis was carried out on per-farm basis. The economic model results revealed that climate change has negative impact on wheat producers in D.I. Khan and Peshawar while making wheat producers better off in Chitral. The number of losers ranged from 54 to 66.21% and 50 to 61.99% in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, respectively. Losers are the farmers who would be economically worse off under perturbed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 34 to 49 in D.I. Khan while 21.26 to 34.03 in Peshawar. The study recommended need for adaptation strategies to overcome the vulnerabilities of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-01-10

Zhao CS, Yang Y, Yang ST, et al (2019)

Predicting future river health in a minimally influenced mountainous area under climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 656:1373-1385.

It has been shown that climate change impacts the overall health of a river's ecosystem. Although predicting river health under climate change would be useful for stakeholders to adapt to the change and better conserve river health, little research on this topic exists. This paper presents a methodology predicting river health under different climate change scenarios. First, a multi-source, distributed, time-variant gain hydrological model (MS-DTVGM) was used to predict the runoff from a mountainous river in eastern China using the data from three existing IPCC5 climate change models (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.4). Next, a model was developed to predict the river's water quality under these scenarios. Finally, a multidimensional response model utilizing hydrology, water quality, and biology was used to predict the river's biological status and ascertain the impact of climate change on its overall health. The river is in a mountainous area near Jinan City, one of China's first "pilot" cities recognized as a "healthy water ecological community." Our results predict that the overall health of the Yufu River, which is minimally influenced by human activities, will improve by 2030 due to the increased river flow due to an increase in rainfall frequency and subsequent peak runoff. However, the total nitrogen concentration is predicted to increase, which is a potential eutrophication risk. Therefore, effective control of nitrogen pollutants entering the river will be necessary. The increase in flow velocity (the annual average increase is ~0.5 m/s) is favorable for fish reproduction. Our methods and results will provide scientific guidance for policy makers and river managers and will help people to better understand how global climate change impacts river health.

RevDate: 2019-01-09

Hertig E (2019)

Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change.

Parasites & vectors, 12(1):18 pii:10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6.

BACKGROUND: In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessments of possible changes of Anopheles vector distributions and of potential malaria transmission stability in the European-Mediterranean area under changing climatic conditions during the course of the 21st century are not available yet.

METHODS: Boosted Regression Trees are applied to relate climate variables and land cover classes to vector occurrences. Changes in future vector distributions and potential malaria transmission stability due to climate change are assessed using state-of-the art regional climate model simulations.

RESULTS: Distinct changes in the distributions of the dominant vectors of human malaria are to be expected under climate change. In general, temperature and precipitation changes will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors. Yet, for some Mediterranean areas, occurrence probabilities may decline.

CONCLUSIONS: Potential malaria transmission stability is increased in areas where the climatic changes favor vector occurrences as well as significantly impact the vectorial capacity. As a result, vector stability shows the highest increases between historical and future periods for the southern and south-eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the dominant vector in large parts of Europe, might play an important role with respect to changes of the potential transmission stability.

RevDate: 2019-01-08

Wu C, Chen Y, Peng C, et al (2019)

Modeling and estimating aboveground biomass of Dacrydium pierrei in China using machine learning with climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 234:167-179 pii:S0301-4797(18)31512-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Accurate estimations of the aboveground biomass (AGB) of rare and endangered species are particularly important for protecting forest ecosystems and endangered species and for providing useful information to analyze the influence of past and future climate change on forest AGB. We investigated the feasibility of using three developed and two widely used models, including a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), a group method of data handling (GMDH), an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), an artificial neural network (ANN) and a support vector machine (SVM), to estimate the AGB of Dacrydium pierrei (D. pierrei) in natural forests of China. The results showed that these models could explain the changes in the AGB of the D. pierrei using a limited amount of meteorological data. The GRNN and ANN models are superior to the other models for estimating the AGB of D. pierrei. The GMDH model consistently produced comparatively poor estimates of the AGB. Three climate scenarios, including the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were compared with the climate situation of 2013-2017. Under these scenarios, the AGB of D. pierrei females with the same diameter at breast height (DBH) would increase by 13.0 ± 31.4% (mean ± standard deviation), 16.6 ± 30.7%, and 18.5 ± 30.9% during 2041-2060 and 15.6 ± 32.1%, 21.2 ± 33.2%, and 24.8 ± 32.7% during 2061-2080; the AGB of males would increase by 16.3 ± 32.3%, 21.7 ± 32.5%, and 22.9 ± 32.6% during 2041-2060 and 22.3 ± 30.8%, 27.2 ± 31.8%, and 30.1 ± 34.4% during 2061-2080. The R2 values of all models range from 0.82 to 0.95. In conclusion, this study suggests that these advanced models are recommended to estimate the AGB of forests, and the AGB of forests would increase in 2041-2080 under future climate scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-01-08

Buckley LB, Khaliq I, Swanson DL, et al (2018)

Does metabolism constrain bird and mammal ranges and predict shifts in response to climate change?.

Ecology and evolution, 8(24):12375-12385 pii:ECE34537.

Mechanistic approaches for predicting the ranges of endotherms are needed to forecast their responses to environmental change. We test whether physiological constraints on maximum metabolic rate and the factor by which endotherms can elevate their metabolism (metabolic expansibility) influence cold range limits for mammal and bird species. We examine metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary (MECRB) and whether species' traits can predict variability in MECRB and then use MECRB as an initial approach to project range shifts for 210 mammal and 61 bird species. We find evidence for metabolic constraints: the distributions of metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary peak at similar values for birds (2.7) and mammals (3.2). The right skewed distributions suggest some species have adapted to elevate or evade metabolic constraints. Mammals exhibit greater skew than birds, consistent with their diverse thermoregulatory adaptations and behaviors. Mammal and bird species that are small and occupy low trophic levels exhibit high levels of MECRB. Mammals with high MECRB tend to hibernate or use torpor. Predicted metabolic rates at the cold range boundaries represent large energetic expenditures (>50% of maximum metabolic rates). We project species to shift their cold range boundaries poleward by an average of 3.9° latitude by 2070 if metabolic constraints remain constant. Our analysis suggests that metabolic constraints provide a viable mechanism for initial projections of the cold range boundaries for endotherms. However, errors and approximations in estimating metabolic constraints (e.g., acclimation responses) and evasion of these constraints (e.g., torpor/hibernation, microclimate selection) highlight the need for more detailed, taxa-specific mechanistic models. Even coarse considerations of metabolism will likely lead to improved predictions over exclusively considering thermal tolerance for endotherms.

RevDate: 2019-01-07

Sun Y, Xie S, S Zhao (2019)

Valuing urban green spaces in mitigating climate change: a city-wide estimate of aboveground carbon stored in urban green spaces of China's Capital.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Urban green spaces provide manifold environmental benefits and promote human well-being. Unfortunately, these services are largely undervalued, and the potential of urban areas themselves to mitigate future climate change has received little attention. In this study, we quantified and mapped city-wide aboveground carbon storage of urban green spaces in China's capital, Beijing, using field survey data of diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height from 326 field survey plots, combined with satellite-derived vegetation index at a fine resolution of 6 m. We estimated the total amount of carbon stored in the urban green spaces to be 956.3 Gg (1 Gg = 109 g) in 2014. There existed great spatial heterogeneity in vegetation carbon density varying from 0 to 68.1 Mg C ha-1 , with an average density of 7.8 Mg C ha-1 . As expected, carbon density tended to decrease with urban development intensity (UDI). Likely affected by vegetation cover proportion and configuration of green space patches, large differences presented between the 95th and 5th quantile carbon density for each UDI bin, showing great potential for carbon sequestration. However, the interquartile range of carbon density narrowed drastically when UDI reached 60%, signifying a threshold for greatly reduced carbon sequestration potentials for higher UDI. These findings suggested that urban green spaces have great potential to make contribution to mitigating against future climate change if we plan and design urban green spaces following the trajectory of high carbon density, but we should be aware that such potential will be very limited when the urban development reaches certain intensity threshold. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-01-07

Spalink D, MacKay R, KJ Sytsma (2019)

Phylogeography, population genetics, and distribution modeling reveal vulnerability of Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae) and the Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora to climate change.

Molecular ecology [Epub ahead of print].

A proactive approach to conservation must be predictive, anticipating how habitats will change and which species are likely to decline or prosper. We use composite species distribution modeling to identify suitable habitats for 18 members of the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora (ACPF) since the Last Glacial Maximum and project these into the future. We then use Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae), a globally imperiled ACPF sedge with many of the characteristics of extinction vulnerability, as a case study. We integrate phylogeographic and population genetic analyses and species distribution modeling to develop a broad view of its current condition and prognosis for conservation. We use genotyping-by-sequencing to characterize the genomes of 142 S. longii individuals from twenty populations distributed throughout its range (New Jersey to Nova Scotia). We measure the distribution of genetic diversity in the species and reconstruct its phylogeographic history using SNAPP and RASE. Extant populations of S. longii originated from a single refugium south of the Laurentide ice sheet around 25 thousand years ago. The genetic diversity of S. longii is exceedingly low, populations exhibit little genetic structure, and the species is slightly inbred. Projected climate scenarios indicate that nearly half of extant populations of S. longii will be exposed to unsuitable climate by 2070. Similar changes in suitable habitat will occur for many other northern ACPF species - centers of diversity will shift northward and Nova Scotia may become the last refuges for those species not extinguished. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-01-07

Cook CJ, Burness G, CC Wilson (2018)

Metabolic rates of embryos and alevin from a cold-adapted salmonid differ with temperature, population and family of origin: implications for coping with climate change.

Conservation physiology, 6(1):cox076 pii:cox076.

Early developmental stages of cold-adapted ectotherms such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are at higher risk of mortality with increasing water temperatures. To determine the amount of variation present in early life, which may allow for potential adaptation to increasing temperature, we examined the routine metabolic rates (RMR) of wild-origin brook trout embryos and alevins reared at normal (5°C) and elevated (9°C) temperatures. The experiment was structured to examine variation in RMR within and among several levels of biological organization (family, population and ancestral type (native vs. mixed ancestry)). As expected, family and temperature variables were most important for predicting RMR and body mass, although population-level differences also existed when family was excluded for more detailed analysis. Additionally, body mass strongly influenced RMR at all life stages except for eyed embryos. When family identity was removed from the analysis, population became the most significant variable. Variation in RMR and mass within and among populations may indicate existing adaptive potential within and among brook trout populations to respond to predicted warming under climate change scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-01-06

Ali SHB, Shafqat MN, Eqani SAMAS, et al (2019)

Trends of climate change in the upper Indus basin region, Pakistan: implications for cryosphere.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(2):51 pii:10.1007/s10661-018-7184-3.

The Indus River, the lifeline of Pakistan's economy and its tributaries, derives most of water flow from the upper Indus basin comprised of Karakorum, Himalaya, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, thus making this area important in climate change studies. We analyzed the records of climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity (RH) from two weather stations (Gilgit and Skardu) of upper Indus basin region from 1953 to 2006. To observe the trends of climate change, the selected time was divided into two temporal half periods consisting of 27 years each (1953-1979 and 1980-2006). The overall mean temperature (OMT) was decreased by - 0.137 °C in Gilgit, while an increase of 0.63 °C was observed in Skardu during the later period compared to the previous one. The mean minimum temperature (MMT) was found to decrease while mean maximum temperature (MXT) showed non-significant changes during the summer at both locations. However, there was an evidence of spring and winter warming at both locations due to increase in the MXT. The precipitation data showed large interannual variation at both locations. Significant increases in the morning relative humidity (RH) were observed during summer and autumn months at Skardu and throughout the year at Gilgit, while the evening RH increased during the same seasons at both stations. Significant increase in MXT and OMT during spring and winter months at higher elevation (Skardu) may have serious implications for the deposition and melting of seasonal snowpack with impacts on local livelihoods and river flow.

RevDate: 2019-01-05

Miller-Rushing AJ, Gallinat AS, RB Primack (2019)

Creative citizen science illuminates complex ecological responses to climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1820266116 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-01-04

Penteriani V, Zarzo-Arias A, Novo-Fernández A, et al (2019)

Responses of an endangered brown bear population to climate change based on predictable food resource and shelter alterations.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The survival of an increasing number of species is threatened by climate change: 20-30% of plants and animals seem to be at risk of range shift or extinction if global warming reaches levels projected to occur by the end of this century. Plant range shifts may determine whether animal species that rely on plant availability for food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy and availability. Brown bears in temperate forested habitats mostly forage on plants and it may be expected that climate change will affect the viability of the endangered populations of southern Europe. Here, we assessed the potential impact of climate change on seven plants that represent main food resources and shelter for the endangered population of brown bears in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain). Our simulations suggest that the geographic range of these plants might be altered under future climate warming, with most bear resources reducing their range. As a consequence, this brown bear population is expected to decline drastically in the next fifty years. Range shifts of brown bear are also expected to displace individuals from mountainous areas towards more humanised ones, where we can expect an increase in conflicts and bear mortality rates. Additional negative effects might include: (a) a tendency to a more carnivorous diet, which would increase conflicts with cattle farmers; (b) limited fat storage before hibernation due to the reduction of oak forests; (c) increased intraspecific competition with other acorn consumers, i.e. wild ungulates and free-ranging livestock; and (d) larger displacements between seasons to find main trophic resources. The magnitude of the changes projected by our models emphasizes that conservation practices focused only on bears may not be appropriate and thus we need more dynamic conservation planning aimed at reducing the impact of climate change in forested landscapes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-01-04

Selm KR, Peterson MN, Hess GR, et al (2019)

Educational attainment predicts negative perceptions women have of their own climate change knowledge.

PloS one, 14(1):e0210149 pii:PONE-D-18-03806.

Education may encourage personal and collective responses to climate change, but climate education has proven surprisingly difficult and complex. Self-perception of knowledge and intelligence represent one factor that may impact willingness to learn about climate change. We explored this possibility with a case study in Raleigh, North Carolina in 2015 (n = 200). Our goal was to test how gender and ethnicity influenced perceptions people had of their own climate change knowledge. Survey respondents were asked how strongly they agreed with the statement "I feel knowledgeable about climate change" (1 = strongly disagree, and 5 = strongly agree). Our survey instrument also included demographic questions about race, age, income, gender, and education, as well as respondent's experience with natural disasters and drought. We observed an interaction between education and gender where women's self-perceived knowledge was higher than men among people with low levels of educational attainment, but was higher for men than women among people with high levels of educational attainment. In addition, minority respondents self-reported lower perceived climate change knowledge than white respondents, regardless of educational attainment. This study enhances our understanding of the gender gap in self-perceptions of climate knowledge by suggesting it is contingent on educational attainment. This could be the result of stereotype-threat experienced by women and minorities, and exacerbated by educational systems. Because people who question their knowledge are often more able to learn, particularly in ideologically charged contexts, highly educated women and minorities may be more successful learning about climate change than white men.

RevDate: 2019-01-04

Weigmann K (2019)

Fixing carbon: To alleviate climate change, scientists are exploring ways to harness nature's ability to capture CO2 from the atmosphere.

EMBO reports pii:embr.201847580 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-01-04

Tong MX, Hansen A, Hanson-Easey S, et al (2018)

Dengue control in the context of climate change: Views from health professionals in different geographic regions of China.

Journal of infection and public health pii:S1876-0341(18)30342-3 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a significant climate-sensitive disease. Public health professionals play an important role in prevention and control of the disease. This study aimed to explore dengue control and prevention in the context of climate change in China.

METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 630 public health professionals in 2015. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were performed.

RESULTS: More than 80% of participants from southwest and central China believed climate change would affect dengue. However, participants from northeast China were less likely to believe so (65%). Sixty-nine percent of participants in Yunnan perceived that dengue had emerged/re-emerged in recent years, compared with 40.6% in Henan and 23.8% in Liaoning. Less than 60% of participants thought current prevention and control programs had been effective. Participants believed mosquitoes in high abundance, imported cases and climate change were main risk factors for dengue in China.

CONCLUSION: There were varying views of dengue in China. Professionals in areas susceptible to dengue were more likely to be concerned about climate change and dengue. Current prevention and control strategies need to be improved. Providing more information for staff in lower levels of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may help in containing a possible increase of dengue.

RevDate: 2019-01-04

Bruno JF, Côté IM, LT Toth (2019)

Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?.

Annual review of marine science, 11:307-334.

Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change-the root cause of global coral decline.

RevDate: 2019-01-04

Shi XM (2019)

[Air pollution, climate change and health: from evidence to action].

Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine], 53(1):1-3.

The adverse effects of air pollution and climate change on human health have already been a major global environmental issue, and the challenges in China are even more severe. In this issue, titled "Air Pollution Climate, Change and Health" , we present a series of articles that reviewed and analyzed the impact of air pollution and climate change on human health systematically, and propose recommendations for the next phase of research. Meanwhile, we introduce the latest achievements of the World Health Organization (WHO) in coping with air pollution and health, summarize the first WHO Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health, and provide evidence-based guidelines for control and prevention of climate change and air pollution in China.

RevDate: 2019-01-03

Denley D, Metaxas A, K Fennel (2019)

Community composition influences the population growth and ecological impact of invasive species in response to climate change.

Oecologia pii:10.1007/s00442-018-04334-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Predicting long-term impacts of introduced species is challenging, since stressors related to global change can influence species-community interactions by affecting both demographic rates of invasive species and the structure of the invaded ecosystems. Invasive species can alter ecosystem structure over time, further complicating interactions between invasive species and invaded communities in response to additional stressors. Few studies have considered how cumulative impacts of species invasion and global change on the structure of invaded ecosystems may influence persistence and population growth of introduced species. Here, we present an empirically based population model for an invasive epiphytic bryozoan that can dramatically alter the structure of its invaded kelp bed ecosystems. We use this model to predict the response of invasive species to climate change and associated changes in the invaded community. Population growth of the bryozoan increased under near-future projections of increasing ocean temperature; however, the magnitude of population growth depended on the community composition of invaded kelp beds. Our results suggest that, in some cases, indirect effects of climate change mediated through changes to the structure of the invaded habitat can modulate direct effects of climate change on invasive species, with consequences for their long-term ecological impact. Our findings have important implications for management of invasive species, as modifying invaded habitats at local to regional scales may be more logistically feasible than addressing stressors related to global climate change.

RevDate: 2019-01-03

Newman J (2019)

Islands' institutes band together against climate change.

Nature, 565(7737):25.

RevDate: 2019-01-02

Wang S, Jiang J, Zhou Y, et al (2019)

Climate-change information, health-risk perception and residents' environmental complaint behavior: an empirical study in China.

Environmental geochemistry and health pii:10.1007/s10653-018-0235-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Motivating residents to deliver environmental complaints is beneficial for environmental authorities to help them manage environmental issues and alleviate the adverse effects caused by climate change. The major aim of the present study is to understand how climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions (both physical and mental dimensions) affect residents' environmental complaint behavior. The research framework was developed according to planned behavior theory, risk perception behavior and information behavior models. This framework was empirically assessed by employing questionnaire survey data gathered from 1273 respondents in China. The results indicate that climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions have all significantly positive effects on residents' attitudes toward environmental complaints and their intention to submit environmental complaints. Meanwhile, residents' health-risk perception is also positively affected by climate-change information. Mental health-risk perception plays a much stronger role in determining a residents' attitude and intention to submit an environmental complaint than does physical health-risk perception. Furthermore, attitude toward environmental complaint, perceived behavioral control and subjective norm all have significantly positive effects on a residents' intention to submit an environmental complaint. Additionally, this study also addresses the intention-behavior gap and suggests a positive relationship between intention and behavior. The present study may provide some practical implications to motivate residents to submit environmental complaints.

RevDate: 2019-01-01

Savva I, Bennett S, Roca G, et al (2018)

Thermal tolerance of Mediterranean marine macrophytes: Vulnerability to global warming.

Ecology and evolution, 8(23):12032-12043 pii:ECE34663.

The Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems.

RevDate: 2019-01-01

Su J, Aryal A, Hegab IM, et al (2018)

Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.

Ecology and evolution, 8(23):11887-11899 pii:ECE34645.

Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km2 in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km2) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km2) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km2 (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.

RevDate: 2019-01-01

Schnitter R, Verret M, Berry P, et al (2018)

An Assessment of Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation in Dominica.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(1): pii:ijerph16010070.

A climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted in Dominica, a Caribbean small island developing state located in the Lesser Antilles. The assessment revealed that the country's population is already experiencing many impacts on health and health systems from climate variability and change. Infectious diseases as well as food and waterborne diseases pose continued threats as climate change may exacerbate the related health risks. Threats to food security were also identified, with particular concern for food production systems. The findings of the assessment included near-term and long-term adaptation options that can inform actions of health sector decision-makers in addressing health vulnerabilities and building resilience to climate change. Key challenges include the need for enhanced financial and human resources to build awareness of key health risks and increase adaptive capacity. Other small island developing states interested in pursuing a vulnerability and adaptation assessment may find this assessment approach, key findings, analysis, and lessons learned useful.

RevDate: 2018-12-31

Peterson ML, Doak DF, WF Morris (2018)

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographical ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to non-climatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically-based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-12-29

Puppim de Oliveira JA (2018)

Intergovernmental relations for environmental governance: Cases of solid waste management and climate change in two Malaysian States.

Journal of environmental management, 233:481-488 pii:S0301-4797(18)31362-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Institutions for environmental governance evolve differently across sectors. They also vary in the same sector when governments at two levels (national and subnational) have different political alignments. As the policy environment becomes more complex, with global problems like climate change, and politics more dividing, better coordination among various levels of government is a tough governance challenge. Scholars and practitioners need to realize how best to build institutions to bridge the various levels of government in different political environments and environmental sectors. This research analyzes the influence of intergovernmental relations in two environmental sectors in two localities with contrasting political alignments between two levels of government. It draws lessons from solid waste management and climate policy in two Malaysian states (Johor and Penang). In an evolving State and new policy arenas, when formal institutions for intergovernmental relations may not be effectively in place, politics play an even larger role through the discretionary power of federal and subnational authorities. An open political process can help with the engagement of different political groups and civil society to bring legitimacy, resources and efficiency to environmental management, if it is done with robust intergovernmental institutions; otherwise, intergovernmental relations can also become a tool for zero-sum games, cronyism and patrimonialism, which can undermine policies, and result in inefficiencies and ineffectiveness in environmental management.

RevDate: 2018-12-27

Kissel AM, Palen WJ, Ryan ME, et al (2018)

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λs) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λs will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

RevDate: 2018-12-27

Ylä-Anttila T, Vesa J, Eranti V, et al (2018)

Up with ecology, down with economy? The consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation in the global public sphere.

European journal of communication, 33(6):587-603.

Building on theories of valuation and evaluation, we develop an analytical framework that outlines six elements of the process of consolidation of an idea in the public sphere. We then use the framework to analyse the process of consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation between 1997 and 2013, focusing on the interplay between ecological and economic evaluations. Our content analysis of 1274 articles in leading newspapers in five countries around the globe shows that (1) ecological arguments increase over time, (2) economic arguments decrease over time, (3) the visibility of environmental nongovernmental organizations as carriers of ecological ideas increases over time, (4) the visibility of business actors correspondingly decreases, (5) ecological ideas are increasingly adopted by political and business elites and (6) a compromise emerges between ecological and economic evaluations, in the form of the argument that climate change mitigation boosts, rather than hinders economic growth.

RevDate: 2018-12-27

Fan J, Meng J, Ashkenazy Y, et al (2018)

Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(52):E12128-E12134.

Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate warming, and they may have widespread and diverse effects on health, agriculture, economics, and political conflicts. Still, the detection and quantification of climate change, both in observations and climate models, constitute a main focus of the scientific community. Here, we develop an approach based on network and percolation frameworks to study the impacts of climate changes in the past decades using historical models and reanalysis records, and we analyze the expected upcoming impacts using various future global warming scenarios. We find an abrupt transition during the evolution of the climate network, indicating a consistent poleward expansion of the largest cluster that corresponds to the tropical area, as well as the weakening of the strength of links in the tropic. This is found both in the reanalysis data and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 21st century climate change simulations. The analysis is based on high-resolution surface (2 m) air temperature field records. We discuss the underlying mechanism for the observed expansion of the tropical cluster and associate it with changes in atmospheric circulation represented by the weakening and expansion of the Hadley cell. Our framework can also be useful for forecasting the extent of the tropical cluster to detect its influence on different areas in response to global warming.

RevDate: 2018-12-25

Xue JY, GY Liu (2018)

Urban energy water food land climate change nexus in the flow and policy perspective: A review.

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 29(12):4226-4238.

Intricate associations exist between the internal elements of urban ecosystems, with the adjustment in one element can exert impacts of varying degrees on others. The rapid urbanization has brought numerous challenges on the urban sustainable development. To basically solve these problems, the nexus approach needs to be adopted. We clarified three application scenarios of nexus and their corresponding definitions. Meanwhile, the development of urban nexus theory was also provided. The analysis between any two characters among energy, water, food, land and climate change (EWFLC) systems was presented from the perspective of the physical nexus and policy effect nexus, respectively. From the perspective of the physical nexus, most the present stu-dies are concentrated on the urban scale, and aim at the direct nexus, lacking of indirect nexus reaches relatively. Most of the relationships between each two characters will have positive impacts on the society or economy. From the perspective of the policy effect nexus, current policies focused on the five systems are mostly oriented to directly solve problems of targeted system. The intermediate objectives of policy implementation are mostly quantifiable. There are generally multiple indicators of the policy effect evaluations. Furthermore, an analysis framework of urban EWFLC systems simultaneously combining physical and policy nexus was proposed in this study, which aimed to help make policy selections and realize urban sustainable development.

RevDate: 2018-12-25

DU YD, Shen P, Wang H, et al (2018)

Impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice in Guangdong Pro-vince, China.

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 29(12):4013-4021.

Based on the dataset of air temperature from 86 stations during 1961 to 2016, and DEM data derived from 1:250000 topographic maps, we analyzed the spatial-temporal changes of key climatic factors (safe period for double cropping rice, ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature) using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, and inverse distance weighted interpolation. The impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice was studied by combining with the changes of key climate factors for the periods of 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, before (1961-1997) and after (1998-2016) climatic mutation. The results showed that spatial distributions of safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature were different from place to place in Guangdong. Generally, they were more or higher in south than in north part, in plain than in mountain regions. Under the background of global warming, the safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated tempera-ture showed a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 1.7 d and 43 ℃·d per decade, respectively. All climatic factor had mutation in the year of 1997. According to the climatic conditions of various maturing rice growth and development, climatic zoning for double cropping rice in Guangdong could be divided into three regions: early maturity with early maturity, early maturity with late maturity, late maturity with late maturity. Those regions were distributed in middle-subtropics of northern Guangdong, south-subtropics of middle Guangdong, and north-tropics of southern Guangdong, respectively. Due to the climate change, the area of late maturity with late maturity significantly increased, the area of early maturity with late maturity significantly decreased, and the area of early maturity with early maturity showed no significant change. Relative to that in 1961-1990, the areas of late maturity with late maturity in 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 increased 1.22&times;106 hm2 and 2.56&times;106 hm2, respectively, but the area of early maturity with late maturity decreased 1.13&times;106 hm2 and 2.56&times;106 hm2, respectively. The area of late maturity with late maturity was more than doubled, but that of early maturity with late maturity decreased about a half after 1997 than that before in Guangdong.

RevDate: 2018-12-25

Li Y, Pizer WA, L Wu (2018)

Climate change and residential electricity consumption in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1804667115 [Epub ahead of print].

Estimating the impact of climate change on energy use across the globe is essential for analysis of both mitigation and adaptation policies. Yet existing empirical estimates are concentrated in Western countries, especially the United States. We use daily data on household electricity consumption to estimate how electricity consumption would change in Shanghai in the context of climate change. For colder days <7 °C, a 1 °C increase in daily temperature reduces electricity consumption by 2.8%. On warm days >25 °C, a 1 °C increase in daily temperatures leads to a 14.5% increase in electricity consumption. As income increases, households' weather sensitivity remains the same for hotter days in the summer but increases during the winter. We use this estimated behavior in conjunction with a collection of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to construct a relationship between future annual global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes and annual residential electricity consumption. We find that annual electricity consumption increases by 9.2% per +1 °C in annual GMST. In comparison, annual peak electricity use increases by as much as 36.1% per +1 °C in annual GMST. Although most accurate for Shanghai, our findings could be most credibly extended to the urban areas in the Yangtze River Delta, covering roughly one-fifth of China's urban population and one-fourth of the gross domestic product.

RevDate: 2018-12-24

Jeon DJ, Ligaray M, Kim M, et al (2018)

Evaluating the influence of climate change on the fate and transport of fecal coliform bacteria using the modified SWAT model.

The Science of the total environment, 658:753-762 pii:S0048-9697(18)35076-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) contamination of natural waters is a serious public health issue. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the fate and transport of FCB are important for reducing the risk of contracting diseases. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of climate change on the fate and transport of FCB. We modified both the soil and the in-stream bacteria modules in the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and verified the prediction accuracy of seasonal variability of FCB loads using observations. Forty bias-correcting GCM-RCM projections were applied in the modified SWAT model to examine various future climate conditions at the end of this century (2076-2100). Lastly, we also compared the variability of FCB loads under current and future weather conditions using multi-model ensemble simulations (MMES). The modified SWAT model yielded a satisfactory performance with regard to the seasonal variability of FCB amounts in the soil and FCB loading to water bodies. The modified SWAT model presented substantial proliferation of FCB in the soil (30.1%-147.5%) due to an increase in temperature (25.1%). Also, increase in precipitation (53.3%) led to an increase in FCB loads (96.0%-115.5%) from the soil to water body. In the in-stream environment, resuspension from the stream bed was the dominant process affecting the amount of FCB in stream. Therefore, the final FCB loads increased by 71.2% because of the growing peak channel velocity and volume of water used due to an increase in precipitation. Based on the results of MMES, we concluded that the level of FCB would increase simultaneously in the soil as well as in stream by the end of this century. This study will aid in understanding the future variability of FCB loads as well as in preparing an effective management plan for FCB levels in natural waters.

RevDate: 2018-12-23

Huo D, Sun L, Zhang L, et al (2018)

Global-warming-caused changes of temperature and oxygen alter the proteomic profile of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus.

Journal of proteomics pii:S1874-3919(18)30449-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Multiple environmental stressors caused by global warming influence the regulation of proteins involved in various biological processes in aquatic organisms. As an important component of the marine ecosystem, sea cucumber is a suitable echinoderm species for researching stress responses. In this study, we have investigated the proteomic response of respiratory trees in the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus, challenged with environmental stresses by using the iTRAQ technique. Results showed that 262, 155 and 433 proteins were differentially regulated in response to heat, hypoxia, and heat plus hypoxia, respectively. Expression of key genes and proteins were measured by real-time PCR and western blot to validate the accuracy of the proteome files. Results showed that the interaction between these two stressors has an additive effect at the proteome level. Proteins involved in amino acid and carbohydrate metabolic processes were largely induced by heat while repressed by hypoxia. Exposure to multiple climate change stressors caused several proteins involved in lipid metabolic progress to be down-regulated and lipid catabolic processes were induced. Additionally, hypoxia and the combined stress induced proteins involved in iron homeostasis. ATP synthesis and gluconeogenesis were induced under heat and the combined stress, while ATP and glycogen synthesis were depressed under hypoxia. Proteins related with immune and defense response were largely induced and protein synthesis ability was depressed under all three stresses. Thus, sea cucumber may adopt different strategies to cope with varied environmental stress, and the situation in heat group is more similar with the combined treatment than hypoxia group. These proteomic changes in response to high-temperature and low-oxygen levels may provide insights into the defense strategies of sea cucumber in response to global climate changes. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY: The study focused on comparative quantitative proteomics on Apostichopus japonicus respiratory tree using iTRAQ in responses to multiple climate change stressors: heat, hypoxia and the combined stress. Data showed that A. japonicus can have an acute reaction in diverse biological pathways to both individual and interacting environmental stress, including substance metabolism, signal transduction, protein synthesis, immune response and energy production. Results indicated that sea cucumber adopted different strategies to cope with varied environmental stress, and the interaction between these two stressors has an additive effect at the proteome level. These results offer insight into the molecular regulation of A. japonicus to multiple environmental stress and reveal possible molecular events in sea cucumber under climate changes. The understanding of adaptive variation under global climate changes adaptation in aquatic organisms could be improved.

RevDate: 2018-12-22

Sapkota TB, Vetter SH, Jat ML, et al (2018)

Cost-effective opportunities for climate change mitigation in Indian agriculture.

The Science of the total environment, 655:1342-1354 pii:S0048-9697(18)34581-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Long-term changes in average temperatures, precipitation, and climate variability threaten agricultural production, food security, and the livelihoods of farming communities globally. Whilst adaptation to climate change is necessary to ensure food security and protect livelihoods of poor farmers, mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can lessen the extent of climate change and future needs for adaptation. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate GHG emissions without compromising food production. India is the third largest GHG emitter in the world where agriculture is responsible for 18% of total national emissions. India has identified agriculture as one of the priority sectors for GHG emission reduction in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Identification of emission hotspots and cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture can inform the prioritisation of efforts to reduce emissions without compromising food and nutrition security. We adopted a bottom-up approach to analyse GHG emissions using large datasets of India's 'cost of cultivation survey' and the '19th livestock census' together with soil, climate and management data for each location. Mitigation measures and associated costs and benefits of adoption, derived from a variety of sources including the literature, stakeholder meetings and expert opinion, were presented in the form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). We estimated that by 2030, business-as-usual GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in India would be 515 Megatonne CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) per year with a technical mitigation potential of 85.5 MtCO2e per year through adoption of various mitigation practices. About 80% of the technical mitigation potential could be achieved by adopting only cost-saving measures. Three mitigation options, i.e. efficient use of fertilizer, zero-tillage and rice-water management, could deliver more than 50% of the total technical abatement potential.

RevDate: 2018-12-21

Woesik RV, Köksal S, Ünal A, et al (2018)

Predicting coral dynamics through climate change.

Scientific reports, 8(1):17997 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-36169-7.

Thermal-stress events are changing the composition of many coral reefs worldwide. Yet, determining the rates of coral recovery and their long-term responses to increasing sea-surface temperatures is challenging. To do so, we first estimated coral recovery rates following past disturbances on reefs in southern Japan and Western Australia. Recovery rates varied between regions, with the reefs in southern Japan showing more rapid recovery rates (intrinsic rate of increase, r = 0.38 year-1) than reefs in Western Australia (r = 0.17 year-1). Second, we input these recovery rates into a novel, nonlinear hybrid-stochastic-dynamical system to predict the responses of Indo-Pacific coral populations to complex inter-annual temperature cycles into the year 2100. The coral recovery rates were overlaid on background increases in global sea-surface temperatures, under three different climate-change scenarios. The models predicted rapid recovery at both localities with the infrequent and low-magnitude temperature anomalies expected under a conservative climate-change scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. With moderate increases in ocean temperatures (RCP 6.0) the coral populations showed a bimodal response, with model runs showing either recovery or collapse. Under a business-as-usual climate-change scenario (RCP 8.5), with frequent and intense temperature anomalies, coral recovery was unlikely.

RevDate: 2018-12-21

Godsmark CN, Irlam J, van der Merwe F, et al (2018)

Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study.

Environment international pii:S0160-4120(18)31208-X [Epub ahead of print].

INTRODUCTION: The intersection of health and climate change is often absent or under-represented in sub-national government strategies. This analysis of the literature, using a new methodological framework, highlights priority focus areas for a sub-national government response to health and climate change, using the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa as a case study.

METHODS: A methodological framework was created to conduct a review of priority focus areas relevant for sub-national governments. The framework encompassed the establishment of a Project Steering Group consisting of relevant, sub-national stakeholders (e.g. provincial officials, public and environmental health specialists and academics); an analysis of local climatic projections as well as an analysis of global, national and sub-national health risk factors and impacts.

RESULTS: Globally, the discussion of health and climate change adaptation strategies in sub-national, or provincial government is often limited. For the case study presented, multiple health risk factors were identified. WC climatic projections include a warmer and potentially drier future with an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. WC government priority focus areas requiring further research on health risk factors include: population migration and environmental refugees, land use change, violence and human conflict and vulnerable groups. WC government priority focus areas for further research on health impacts include: mental ill-health, non-communicable diseases, injuries, poisonings (e.g. pesticides), food and nutrition insecurity-related diseases, water- and food-borne diseases and reproductive health. These areas are currently under-addressed, or not addressed at all, in the current provincial climate change strategy.

CONCLUSIONS: Sub-national government adaptation strategies often display limited discussion on the health and climate change intersect. The methodological framework presented in this case study can be globally utilized by other sub-national governments for decision-making and development of climate change and health adaptation strategies. Additionally, due to the broad range of sectoral issues identified, a primary recommendation from this study is that sub-national governments internationally should consider a "health and climate change in all policies" approach when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.

RevDate: 2018-12-21

Rychetnik L, Sainsbury P, G Stewart (2018)

How Local Health Districts can prepare for the effects of climate change: an adaptation model applied to metropolitan Sydney.

Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association pii:AH18153 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change adaptation can be defined as a form of risk management (i.e. assessing climate change-related risks and responding appropriately so that the risks can be pre-emptively minimised and managed as they arise). Adapting to climate change by hospital and community health services will entail responding to changing health needs of the local population, and to the likely effects of climate change on health service resources, workforce and infrastructure. In this paper we apply a model that health services can use to predict and respond to climate change risks and illustrate this with reference to Sydney's Local Health Districts (LHDs). We outline the climate change predictions for the Sydney metropolitan area, discuss the resulting vulnerabilities for LHDs and consider the potential of LHDs to respond. Three 'core business' categories are examined: (1) ambulance, emergency and acute health care; (2) routine health care; and (3) population and preventative health services. We consider the key climate change risks and vulnerabilities of the LHDs' workforce, facilities and finances, and some important transboundary issues. Many Australian health services have existing robust disaster plans and management networks. These could be expanded to incorporate local climate and health adaptation plans.What is known about the topic? There is an inextricable relationship between climate change and human health, with important implications for the delivery of health services. Climate change will affect health service demand, and the resources, workforce and infrastructure of health services.What does this paper add? This paper outlines how local health services can use existing data sources and models for assessing their climate change-related risks and vulnerabilities to predict, prepare for and respond to those risks. This is illustrated with reference to Sydney's LHDs.What are the implications for practitioners? Adaptation to climate change by health services is an important component of risk management. Local health services need to prepare for the effects of climate change by assessing the risks and developing and implementing climate and health adaptation plans.

RevDate: 2018-12-20

Zhou Q, Leng G, Su J, et al (2018)

Comparison of urbanization and climate change impacts on urban flood volumes: Importance of urban planning and drainage adaptation.

The Science of the total environment, 658:24-33 pii:S0048-9697(18)35029-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding the drivers behind urban floods is critical for reducing its devastating impacts to human and society. This study investigates the impacts of recent urban development on hydrological runoff and urban flood volumes in a major city located in northern China, and compares the urbanization impacts with the effects induced by climate change under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We then quantify the role of urban drainage system in mitigating flood volumes to inform future adaptation strategies. A geo-spatial database on landuse types, surface imperviousness and drainage systems is developed and used as inputs into the SWMM urban drainage model to estimate the flood volumes and related risks under various urbanization and climate change scenarios. It is found that urbanization has led to an increase in annual surface runoff by 208 to 413%, but the changes in urban flood volumes can vary greatly depending on performance of drainage system along the development. Specifically, changes caused by urbanization in expected annual flood volumes are within a range of 194 to 942%, which are much higher than the effects induced by climate change under the RCP 2.6 scenario (64 to 200%). Through comparing the impacts of urbanization and climate change on urban runoff and flood volumes, this study highlights the importance for re-assessment of current and future urban drainage in coping with the changing urban floods induced by local and large-scale changes.

RevDate: 2018-12-20

Halofsky JS, Conklin DR, Donato DC, et al (2018)

Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: Western Washington, U.S.A.

PloS one, 13(12):e0209490 pii:PONE-D-18-21597.

Future vegetation shifts under changing climate are uncertain for forests with infrequent stand-replacing disturbance regimes. These high-inertia forests may have long persistence even with climate change because disturbance-free periods can span centuries, broad-scale regeneration opportunities are fewer relative to frequent-fire systems, and mature tree species are long-lived with relatively high tolerance for sub-optimal growing conditions. Here, we used a combination of empirical and process-based modeling approaches to examine vegetation projections across high-inertia forests of Washington State, USA, under different climate and wildfire futures. We ran our models without forest management (to assess inherent system behavior/potential) and also with wildfire suppression. Projections suggested relatively stable mid-elevation forests through the end of the century despite anticipated increases in wildfire. The largest changes were projected at the lowest and uppermost forest boundaries, with upward expansion of the driest low-elevation forests and contraction of cold, high-elevation subalpine parklands. While forests were overall relatively stable in simulations, increases in early-seral conditions and decreases in late-seral conditions occurred as wildfire became more frequent. With partial fire suppression, projected changes were dampened or delayed, suggesting a potential tool to forestall change in some (but not all) high-inertia forests, especially since extending fire-free periods does little to alter overall fire regimes in these systems. Model projections also illustrated the importance of fire regime context and projection limitations; the time horizon over which disturbances will eventually allow the system to shift are so long that the prevailing climatic conditions under which many of those shifts will occur are beyond what most climate models can predict with any certainty. This will present a fundamental challenge to setting expectations and managing for long-term change in these systems.

RevDate: 2018-12-20

Hughes FM, Côrtes-Figueira JE, MA Drumond (2018)

Anticipating the response of the Brazilian giant earthworm (Rhinodrilus alatus) to climate change: implications for its traditional use.

Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias pii:S0001-37652018005018108 [Epub ahead of print].

Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing global warming on terrestrial species has increased significantly during the last several years, but how climatic change has affected, and will affect, the distribution of earthworms remains largely unknown. We used climate niche modeling to model the current distribution of the giant earthworm Rhinodrilus alatus - an endemic species of the Cerrado Domain in Brazil, which is traditionally harvested and commercialized for fishing bait. R. alatus is sensitive to environmental changes because climate, in synergy with soil attributes, determine its annual reproductive cycle and distribution. The paleoclimatic reconstructions predict important geographical shifts from LGM (~21,000 yBp) to the present potential distribution of R. alatus: range expansion, fragmentation, and shrinkage of the current core area. Further, the 2070 scenarios predict substantial shrink and losses of stable areas. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of the distribution, but will also promote significant fragmentation and a geographical shift to outside of the currently recognized geographical boundaries. In this context, populations of R. alatus would decline and traditional harvesting would collapse, requiring immediate implementation of management and conservation measures for the species and economically sustainable alternatives for the local community.

RevDate: 2018-12-20

Graham R, Compton J, K Meador (2019)

A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature authored by medical professionals regarding US biomedicine's role in responding to climate change.

Preventive medicine reports, 13:132-138 pii:S2211-3355(18)30270-5.

Extant literature illustrates a substantive impact on human health because of climate change. Despite this, discussions of the ethical and policymaking role of US health care's response to this problem are underdeveloped within peer-reviewed literature indexed in core medical databases. We conducted a systematic literature review in August 2017 at Vanderbilt University Medical Center of the following medical, business and policy databases to examine the state of inquiry on this topic: PubMed, CINAHL, PsychINFO, JAMA Network, Health Affairs, Business Source Complete,, LexisNexis Academic, Proquest Dissertations and Theses Global. An initial sample of n = 4434 rendered n = 75 articles precisely addressing this question following a two-tiered systematic examination of content. US medical professionals were most concerned by the health impacts of air pollution and respiratory complications, extreme weather events, and rising infectious/vector-borne diseases. They were least concerned by rising rates of migration and stresses to sanitation systems. Medical professionals took a broadly proactive stance to the issue, highlighting the need to implement education and advocacy strategies. Politics was the least pertinent motivation for climate change-related recommendations. Furthermore, partnerships between health care and public agencies were identified as holding the greatest potential for meaningful change. Mitigation approaches were slightly more common than adaptation approaches. We conclude that, while the enthusiasm of the medical community is commendable, efforts to address climate change in US health care are overly fractured, and lack the necessary expertise for efficaciousness.

RevDate: 2018-12-20

Jones A (2018)

Malnutrition, Poverty, and Climate Change are also Human Rights Issues in Child Labor.

Health and human rights, 20(2):249-251.

RevDate: 2018-12-20

Vaidyanathan G (2018)

Science and Culture: Imagining a climate-change future, without the dystopia.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(51):12832-12835.

RevDate: 2018-12-19

Patrício AR, Varela MR, Barbosa C, et al (2018)

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.

RevDate: 2018-12-19

Quiroga MP, Premoli AC, T Kitzberger (2018)

Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei.

Royal Society open science, 5(11):180513 pii:rsos180513.

Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.

RevDate: 2018-12-19

Sfenthourakis S, E Hornung (2018)

Isopod distribution and climate change.


The unique properties of terrestrial isopods regarding responses to limiting factors such as drought and temperature have led to interesting distributional patterns along climatic and other environmental gradients at both species and community level. This paper will focus on the exploration of isopod distributions in evaluating climate change effects on biodiversity at different scales, geographical regions, and environments, in view of isopods' tolerances to environmental factors, mostly humidity and temperature. Isopod distribution is tightly connected to available habitats and habitat features at a fine spatial scale, even though different species may exhibit a variety of responses to environmental heterogeneity, reflecting the large interspecific variation within the group. Furthermore, isopod distributions show some notable deviations from common global patterns, mainly as a result of their ecological features and evolutionary origins. Responses to human disturbance are not always traceable, but a trend towards community homogenisation is often found under strong global urbanisation processes. In general, even though it is still not clear how predicted climate change will affect isopod distribution, there is evidence that mixed effects are to be expected, depending on the region under study. We still lack robust and extensive analyses of isopod distributions at different scales and at different biomes, as well as applications of distribution models that might help evaluate future trends.

RevDate: 2018-12-19

Hassall M, Moss A, Dixie B, et al (2018)

Interspecific variation in responses to microclimate by terrestrial isopods: implications in relation to climate change.


The importance of considering species-specific biotic interactions when predicting feedbacks between the effects of climate change and ecosystem functions is becoming widely recognised. The responses of soil animals to predicted changes in global climate could potentially have far-reaching consequences for fluxes of soil carbon, including climatic feedbacks resulting from increased emissions of carbon dioxide from soils. The responses of soil animals to different microclimates can be summarised as norms of reaction, in order to compare phenotypic differences in traits along environmental gradients. Thermal and moisture reaction norms for physiological, behavioural and life history traits of species of terrestrial isopods differing in their morphological adaptations for reducing water loss are presented. Gradients of moisture reaction norms for respiratory rates and thermal reaction norms for water loss, for a species from the littoral zone were steeper than those for species from mesic environments. Those for mesic species were steeper than for those from xeric habitats. Within mesic species, gradients of thermal reaction norms for aggregation were steeper for Oniscusasellus than for Porcellioscaber or Armadilliumvulgare, and moisture reaction norms for sheltering and feeding behaviours were steeper for Philosciamuscorum than for either P.scaber or A.vulgare. These differences reflect differences in body shape, permeability of the cuticle, and development of pleopodal lungs. The implications of differences between different species of soil animals in response to microclimate on the possible influence of the soil fauna on soil carbon dynamics under future climates are discussed. In conclusion a modelling approach to bridging the inter-disciplinary gap between carbon cycling and the biology of soil animals is recommended.

RevDate: 2018-12-18

Tullai-McGuinness S, Berry P, R Chaudry (2016)

The Reality of Climate Change on Health.

Ohio nurses review, 91(5):12-3, 15.

RevDate: 2018-12-18

Klesse S, DeRose RJ, Guiterman CH, et al (2018)

Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the southwestern United States.

Nature communications, 9(1):5336 pii:10.1038/s41467-018-07800-y.

Climate-tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41-59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples.

RevDate: 2018-12-17

Silva CR, Ribas CC, Da Silva MNF, et al (2018)

The role of Pleistocene climate change in the genetic variability, distribution and demography of Proechimys cuvieri and P. guyannensis (Rodentia: Echimyidae) in northeastern Amazonia.

PloS one, 13(12):e0206660 pii:PONE-D-18-01639.

The spiny rats, genus Proechimys, have the highest species richness within the Echimyidae family, as well as species with high genetic variability. The genus distribution includes tropical South America and Central America south to Honduras. In this study, we evaluate the phylogeographic histories of Proechimys guyannensis and P. cuvieri using cytochrome b, in a densely sampled area in northeastern Amazon where both species are found in sympatry in different environments. For each species, Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analysis were congruent and recovered similar clades in the studied area. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using a relaxed molecular clock showed that these clusters of haplotypes diversified during Pleistocene for both species. Apparently, the large rivers of the region did not act as barriers, as some clades include specimens collected from opposite banks of Oiapoque, Araguari and Jari rivers. Bayesian skyline plot analysis showed recent demographic expansion in both species. The Pleistocene climatic changes in concert with the geologic changes in the Amazon fan probably acted as drivers in the diversification that we detected in these two spiny rats. Proechimys cuvieri and P. guyannensis show genetic structure in the eastern part of the Guiana region. Greater genetic distances observed in P. guyannensis, associated with highly structured groups, suggest that more detailed studies of systematics and ecology should be directed to this species.

RevDate: 2018-12-17

McCauley SJ, Hammond JI, KE Mabry (2018)

Simulated climate change increases larval mortality, alters phenology, and affects flight morphology of a dragonfly.

Ecosphere (Washington, D.C), 9(3):.

For organisms with complex life cycles, climate change can have both direct effects and indirect effects that are mediated through plastic responses to temperature and that carry over beyond the developmental environment. We examined multiple responses to environmental warming in a dragonfly, a species whose life history bridges aquatic and terrestrial environments. We tested larval survival under warming and whether warmer conditions can create carry-over effects between life history stages. Rearing dragonfly larvae in an experimental warming array to simulate increases in temperature, we contrasted the effects of the current thermal environment with temperatures +2.5°C and +5°C above ambient, temperatures predicted for 50 and 100 years in the future for the study region. Aquatic mesocosms were stocked with dragonfly larvae (Erythemis collocata) and we followed survival of larvae to adult emergence. We also measured the effects of warming on the timing of the life history transition to the adult stage, body size of adults, and the relative size of their wings, an aspect of morphology key to flight performance. There was a trend toward reduced larval survival with increasing temperature. Warming strongly affected the phenology of adult emergence, advancing emergence by up to a month compared with ambient conditions. Additionally, our warmest conditions increased variation in the timing of adult emergence compared with cooler conditions. The increased variation with warming arose from an extended emergence season with fewer individuals emerging at any one time. Altered emergence patterns such as we observed are likely to place individuals emerging outside the typical season at greater risk from early and late season storms and will reduce effective population sizes during the breeding season. Contrary to expectations for ectotherms, body size was unaffected by warming. However, morphology was affected: at +5°C, dragonflies emerging from mesocosms had relatively smaller wings. This provides some of the first evidence that the effects of climate change on animals during their growth can have carry-over effects in morphology that will affect performance of later life history stages. In dragonflies, relatively smaller wings are associated with reduced flight performance, creating a link between larval thermal conditions and adult dispersal capacity.

RevDate: 2018-12-17

Rodríguez J, Gallampois CMJ, Timonen S, et al (2018)

Effects of Organic Pollutants on Bacterial Communities Under Future Climate Change Scenarios.

Frontiers in microbiology, 9:2926.

Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and can be strongly influenced by climate change, anthropogenic activities (e.g., pollution), and a combination of the two pressures. As a result of climate change, the northern hemisphere is predicted to undergo an increased precipitation regime, leading in turn to higher terrestrial runoff and increased river inflow. This increased runoff will transfer terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) and anthropogenic contaminants to coastal waters. Such changes can directly influence the resident biology, particularly at the base of the food web, and can influence the partitioning of contaminants and thus their potential impact on the food web. Bacteria have been shown to respond to high tDOM concentration and organic pollutants loads, and could represent the entry of some pollutants into coastal food webs. We carried out a mesocosm experiment to determine the effects of: (1) increased tDOM concentration, (2) organic pollutant exposure, and (3) the combined effect of these two factors, on pelagic bacterial communities. This study showed significant responses in bacterial community composition under the three environmental perturbations tested. The addition of tDOM increased bacterial activity and diversity, while the addition of organic pollutants led to an overall reduction of these parameters, particularly under concurrent elevated tDOM concentration. Furthermore, we identified 33 bacterial taxa contributing to the significant differences observed in community composition, as well as 35 bacterial taxa which responded differently to extended exposure to organic pollutants. These findings point to the potential impact of organic pollutants under future climate change conditions on the basal coastal ecosystem, as well as to the potential utility of natural bacterial communities as efficient indicators of environmental disturbance.

RevDate: 2018-12-17

Markowitz DM, Laha R, Perone BP, et al (2018)

Immersive Virtual Reality Field Trips Facilitate Learning About Climate Change.

Frontiers in psychology, 9:2364.

Across four studies, two controlled lab experiments and two field studies, we tested the efficacy of immersive Virtual Reality (VR) as an education medium for teaching the consequences of climate change, particularly ocean acidification. Over 270 participants from four different learning settings experienced an immersive underwater world designed to show the process and effects of rising sea water acidity. In all of our investigations, after experiencing immersive VR people demonstrated knowledge gains or inquisitiveness about climate science and in some cases, displayed more positive attitudes toward the environment after comparing pre- and post-test assessments. The analyses also revealed a potential post-hoc mechanism for the learning effects, as the more that people explored the spatial learning environment, the more they demonstrated a change in knowledge about ocean acidification. This work is unique by showing distinct learning gains or an interest in learning across a variety of participants (high school, college students, adults), measures (learning gain scores, tracking data about movement in the virtual world, qualitative responses from classroom teachers), and content (multiple versions varying in length and content about climate change were tested). Our findings explicate the opportunity to use immersive VR for environmental education and to drive information-seeking about important social issues such as climate change.

RevDate: 2018-12-15

Tüzün N, R Stoks (2018)

Evolution of geographic variation in thermal performance curves in the face of climate change and implications for biotic interactions.

Current opinion in insect science, 29:78-84.

We review the recent literature on geographic variation in insect thermal performance curves (TPCs). Despite strong thermal differences, there is often no change in TPCs across geographic gradients. When shifts occur, these are mostly vertical (indicating an overall shift in performance across temperatures, that is, countergradient or cogradient variation) and less horizontal (reflecting thermal adaptation). Based on this, using a space-for-time substitution approach, we generated likely evolutionary scenarios of TPC evolution to simulate the outcome of biotic interactions under future warming. We illustrate how taking evolution of the TPCs into account may strongly impact the predicted outcome of biotic interactions under climate warming. Importantly, both the type and the magnitude of the TPC shift was identified to be crucial to determine who will be winners and losers of biotic interactions.

RevDate: 2018-12-15

Pellissier L, S Rasmann (2018)

The functional decoupling of processes in alpine ecosystems under climate change.

Current opinion in insect science, 29:126-132.

Climate change may promote the decoupling of the different above-ground and below-ground compartments of high elevation ecosystems. Along elevation gradients, a trade-off between species tolerance to cold climates and metabolic rates dictates that cold adapted organisms display a lower efficiency in decomposition, growth or herbivory. As a consequence, if dispersal or evolution under climate change is systematically faster for agents of one compartment (e.g. insect herbivores, or soil microbes, respectively) compared to others, novel and more efficient functions will arise in the alpine systems and increase fluxes of elements to and through this compartment. We illustrate this potential decoupling using a mechanistic model, where the efficiency of agents in the compartments follows the metabolic theory. To detect and forecast ecosystem decoupling under climate change, we argue that the current efficiency of agents should be measured systematically along elevation gradients. In addition, future research should investigate the impact of dispersal and evolution in response to climate change on ecosystem processes.

RevDate: 2018-12-14

Nunfam VF, Oosthuizen J, Adusei-Asante K, et al (2018)

Perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers in Ghana.

The Science of the total environment, 657:365-378 pii:S0048-9697(18)34835-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Heavy physical workload for long hours coupled with increasing workplace heat exposure due to rising temperatures stemming from climate change, especially where there are inadequate prevention and control policies, adversely affect workers' health and safety, productive capacity and social well-being. However, variations in workers' concerns and awareness of occupational heat stress and climate change risks impede the effectiveness of heat stress management. A mixed method approach was used to assess climate change perceptions and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of Ghanaian mining workers. Questionnaires and focus group discussions were used to collect data from 320 respondents. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were used for data analysis. Workers' climate change risk perception, as confirmed by trends in climate data, was reasonable, but concerns about climate change effects and workplace heat exposure risks varied significantly across types of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers experienced heat-related morbidities, but the variation in heat-related morbidity experiences across the type of mining activity was not significant. However, the type of heat-related morbidities experienced by workers differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers' awareness of occupational heat stress prevention and control was adequate. The disparities in workers' awareness and use of the prevention and control measures significantly differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Occupational heat stress prevention activities should focus on workers, and a concerted effort must be made to promote workers' adaptive capacity and inform policy decisions.

RevDate: 2018-12-14

Bai M, Mo X, Liu S, et al (2018)

Contributions of climate change and vegetation greening to evapotranspiration trend in a typical hilly-gully basin on the Loess Plateau, China.

The Science of the total environment, 657:325-339 pii:S0048-9697(18)34716-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Significant increases in vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau since the early 2000s have been well documented. However, the relevant hydrological effects are still unclear. Here, we investigated the changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from 2000 to 2016 and related them to climate change and vegetation greening in Yanhe River basin (YRB), a typical hilly-gully basin on the Loess Plateau, by using the remote-sensing based VIP model. Results showed that the annual ETa in the YRB increased significantly with a trend of 3.45 mm yr-1 (p < 0.01) and changes of ETa in summer months dominated the annual trend. Partial correlation analysis suggested that vegetation greening was the dominant driving factor of ETa inter-annual variations in 56% area of YRB. Model simulation experiments illustrated that relative contributions of NDVI, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (ETp) to the ETa trend were 93.0%, 18.1%, and -7.4%, respectively. Vegetation greening, which is closely related to the Grain for Green (GFG) afforestation, was the main driver to the long-term tendency of water consumption in the YRB. This study highlights potential water demanding conflicts between the socio-economic system and the natural ecosystem on the Loess Plateau due to the rapid vegetation expansion in this water-limited area.

RevDate: 2018-12-14

Collalti A, Thornton PE, Cescatti A, et al (2018)

The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in-depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non steady-state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 -enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a bio-geochemical process-based model (3D-CMCC-CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest-ageing and -structuring as well as under climate-change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 years of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon- and nitrogen-pools early in forest simulation (i.e. for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C m-2 yr-1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 t C ha-1 , when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium- to longer-time scales, and under climate-change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e. for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C m-2 yr-1 and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 t C ha-1 , when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate-change (i.e. warming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate-change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-12-14

Asseng S, Martre P, Maiorano A, et al (2019)

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein.

Global change biology, 25(1):155-173.

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

RevDate: 2018-12-14

Dorado-Liñán I, Piovesan G, Martínez-Sancho E, et al (2018)

Geographical adaptation prevails over species-specific determinism in trees' vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear-edge forests.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short-term extreme events as well as gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species' limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short and long-term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emissions scenarios using a multispecies Generalized Linear Mixed Model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species' vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically-limited sites. Second, estimated species-specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought-tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species-specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine-scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-12-14

Howard AF (2018)

Asclepias Syriaca (Common Milkweed) flowering date shift in response to climate change.

Scientific reports, 8(1):17802 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-36152-2.

The consequences of altered flowering dates due to climate change can be severe, especially for plants that rely on coordinated flower and pollinator emergence for reproduction. The plant Asclepias syriaca (Common Milkweed) relies on pollinators for movement of its pollen and evidence suggests that it has recently been declining. Given these factors and this plant's importance as a host species for the declining Danaus plexippus (Monarch Butterfly), it is critical to determine if its flowering is being modified by climate change. As a first step to answering this question I quantified the relationship between climate and flowering date for A. syriaca using data from the USA National Phenology Network repository and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. I found that temperatures were higher than they had been historically (1895-2010) and mean flowering dates occurred earlier with higher temperatures. Additionally, there is a significant negative interactive effect of temperature and year on flowering date indicating that from 2011 through 2016 higher temperatures are correlated with increasingly earlier flowering dates. The change in flowering appears to be symmetrical in regards to the flowering time distribution, in that along with the mean, both maximum and minimum flowering dates are occurring earlier, as well. There is no evidence that earlier flowering is due to earlier initial growth or results in later fruit ripening. Consequences of this shift in flowering can only be speculated upon at this point, but due to the ecological importance of A. syriaca and its susceptibility to phenological mismatch, they should be considered when developing conservation plans for A. syriaca and the organisms for which it is a host.

RevDate: 2018-12-14

Pragna P, Chauhan SS, Sejian V, et al (2018)

Climate Change and Goat Production: Enteric Methane Emission and Its Mitigation.

Animals : an open access journal from MDPI, 8(12): pii:ani8120235.

The ability of an animal to cope and adapt itself to the changing climate virtually depends on the function of rumen and rumen inhabitants such as bacteria, protozoa, fungi, virus and archaea. Elevated ambient temperature during the summer months can have a significant influence on the basic physiology of the rumen, thereby affecting the nutritional status of the animals. Rumen volatile fatty acid (VFA) production decreases under conditions of extreme heat. Growing recent evidence suggests there are genetic variations among breeds of goats in the impact of heat stress on rumen fermentation pattern and VFA production. Most of the effects of heat stress on rumen fermentation and enteric methane (CH₄) emission are attributed to differences in the rumen microbial population. Heat stress-induced rumen function impairment is mainly associated with an increase in Streptococcus genus bacteria and with a decrease in the bacteria of Fibrobactor genus. Apart from its major role in global warming and greenhouse effect, enteric CH4 is also considered as a dietary energy loss in goats. These effects warrant mitigating against CH₄ production to ensure optimum economic return from goat farming as well as to reduce the impact on global warming as CH₄ is one of the more potent greenhouse gases (GHG). The various strategies that can be implemented to mitigate enteric CH4 emission include nutritional interventions, different management strategies and applying advanced biotechnological tools to find solution to reduce CH₄ production. Through these advanced technologies, it is possible to identify genetically superior animals with less CH₄ production per unit feed intake. These efforts can help the farming community to sustain goat production in the changing climate scenario.

RevDate: 2018-12-13

Ham YG (2018)

El Niño events will intensify under global warming.

Nature, 564(7735):192-193.

RevDate: 2018-12-13

Searchinger TD, Wirsenius S, Beringer T, et al (2018)

Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.

Nature, 564(7735):249-253.

Land-use changes are critical for climate policy because native vegetation and soils store abundant carbon and their losses from agricultural expansion, together with emissions from agricultural production, contribute about 20 to 25 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions1,2. Most climate strategies require maintaining or increasing land-based carbon3 while meeting food demands, which are expected to grow by more than 50 per cent by 20501,2,4. A finite global land area implies that fulfilling these strategies requires increasing global land-use efficiency of both storing carbon and producing food. Yet measuring the efficiency of land-use changes from the perspective of greenhouse gas emissions is challenging, particularly when land outputs change, for example, from one food to another or from food to carbon storage in forests. Intuitively, if a hectare of land produces maize well and forest poorly, maize should be the more efficient use of land, and vice versa. However, quantifying this difference and the yields at which the balance changes requires a common metric that factors in different outputs, emissions from different agricultural inputs (such as fertilizer) and the different productive potentials of land due to physical factors such as rainfall or soils. Here we propose a carbon benefits index that measures how changes in the output types, output quantities and production processes of a hectare of land contribute to the global capacity to store carbon and to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions. This index does not evaluate biodiversity or other ecosystem values, which must be analysed separately. We apply the index to a range of land-use and consumption choices relevant to climate policy, such as reforesting pastures, biofuel production and diet changes. We find that these choices can have much greater implications for the climate than previously understood because standard methods for evaluating the effects of land use4-11 on greenhouse gas emissions systematically underestimate the opportunity of land to store carbon if it is not used for agriculture.

RevDate: 2018-12-14
CmpDate: 2018-12-14

Kump L (2018)

Climate change and marine mass extinction.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 362(6419):1113-1114.

RevDate: 2018-12-07

Limb M (2018)

Health gains make actions to curb climate change cost neutral, says WHO.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 363:k5197.

RevDate: 2018-12-12

Dolezal J, Dvorsky M, Kopecky M, et al (2018)

Functionally distinct assembly of vascular plants colonizing alpine cushions suggests their vulnerability to climate change.

Annals of botany pii:5239867 [Epub ahead of print].

Background and Aims: Alpine cushion plants can initially facilitate other species during ecological succession, but later on can be negatively affected by their development, especially when beneficiaries possess traits allowing them to overrun their host. This can be reinforced by accelerated warming favouring competitively strong species over cold-adapted cushion specialists. However, little empirical research has addressed the trait-based mechanisms of these interactions. The ecological strategies of plants colonizing the cushion plant Thylacospermum caespitosum (Caryophyllaceae), a dominant pioneer of subnival zones, were studied in the Western Himalayas.

Methods: To assess whether the cushion colonizers are phylogenetically and functionally distinct, 1668 vegetation samples were collected, both in open ground outside the cushions and inside their live and dead canopies, in two mountain ranges, Karakoram and Little Tibet. More than 50 plant traits related to growth, biomass allocation and resource acquisition were measured for target species, and the phylogenetic relationships of these species were studied [or determined].

Key Results: Species-based trait-environment analysis with phylogenetic correction showed that in both mountain ranges Thylacospermum colonizers are phylogenetically diverse but functionally similar and are functionally different from species preferring bare soil outside cushions. Successful colonizers are fast-growing, clonal graminoids and forbs, penetrating the cushion by rhizomes and stolons. They have higher root-to-shoot ratios, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and soil moisture and nutrient demands, sharing the syndrome of competitive species with broad elevation ranges typical of the late stages of primary succession. In contrast, the species from open ground have traits typical of stress-tolerant specialists from high and dry environments.

Conclusion: Species colonizing tight cushions of T. caespitosum are competitively strong graminoids and herbaceous perennials from alpine grasslands. Since climate change in the Himalayas favours these species, highly specialized subnival cushion plants may face intense competition and a greater risk of decline in the future.

RevDate: 2018-12-12

Gareau BJ, Huang X, TP Gareau (2018)

Social and ecological conditions of cranberry production and climate change attitudes in New England.

PloS one, 13(12):e0207237 pii:PONE-D-18-16356.

Cranberry growers in New England are increasingly pressured by negative effects associated with global climate change, some of which are familiar to this group (such as precipitation fluctuations and pest pressures), others that are rather new (such as warmer winters that threaten needed chill hours for the plants to bloom). The first study of this population of its kind, we use a survey, supplemented with observations and interviews, to assess Massachusetts cranberry grower attitudes towards climate change, and whether certain conditions of production might be associated with their attitudes. Our findings suggest that certain personal and ecological conditions are associated with greater worry of climate change effects, and that communal conditions of the cranberry grower social network provide some ways to cope with a warming climate. While the cranberry growing community has created a strong social network that has allowed it to sustain production, a warming planet will likely require significant change in order to overcome general attitudes of climate skepticism so that cranberry production may continue in the future.

RevDate: 2018-12-11

La Sorte FA, Horton KG, Nilsson C, et al (2018)

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.

RevDate: 2018-12-11

Hof C, Voskamp A, Biber MF, et al (2018)

Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1807745115 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate their potential combined impacts on global vertebrate diversity under a low- and a high-level emission scenario. We combine climate-based species distribution models for the world's amphibians, birds, and mammals with land-use change simulations and identify areas threatened by both climate and land-use change in the future. The combined projected effects of climate and land-use change on vertebrate diversity are similar under the two scenarios, with land-use change effects being stronger under the low- and climate change effects under the high-emission scenario. Under the low-emission scenario, increases in bioenergy cropland may cause severe impacts in biodiversity that are not compensated by lower climate change impacts. Under this low-emission scenario, larger proportions of species distributions and a higher number of small-range species may become impacted by the combination of land-use and climate change than under the high-emission scenario, largely a result of bioenergy cropland expansion. Our findings highlight the need to carefully consider both climate and land-use change when projecting biodiversity impacts. We show that biodiversity is likely to suffer severely if bioenergy cropland expansion remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Our study calls for an immediate and significant reduction in energy consumption for the benefit of both biodiversity and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

RevDate: 2018-12-11

Dong Z, Driscoll CT, Johnson SL, et al (2018)

Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range using a biogeochemical model.

The Science of the total environment, 656:608-624 pii:S0048-9697(18)34733-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from four General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were applied as inputs to a biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to examine potential future dynamics of water, carbon, and nitrogen in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range. Projections show 56% to 77% increases in stomatal conductance throughout the year from 1986-2010 to 2076-2100, and 65% to 104% increases in leaf carbon assimilation between October and June over the same period. However, future dynamics of water and carbon under the RCP scenarios are affected by a 49% to 86% reduction in foliar biomass resulting from severe air temperature and humidity stress to the forest in summer. Important implications of future decreases in foliar biomass include 1) 20% to 71% decreases in annual transpiration which increase soil moisture by 7% to 15% in summer and fall; 2) decreases in photosynthesis by 77% and soil organic matter by 62% under the high radiative forcing scenario; and 3) altered foliar and soil carbon to nitrogen stoichiometry. Potential carbon dioxide fertilization effects on vegetation are projected to 1) amplify decreases in transpiration by 4% to 9% and increases in soil moisture in summer and fall by 1% to 2%; and 2) alleviate decreases in photosynthesis by 4%; while 3) having negligible effects on the dynamics of nitrogen. Our projections suggest that future decrease in transpiration and moderate water holding capacity may mitigate soil moisture stress to the old-growth Douglas-fir forest. Future increases in nitrogen concentration in soil organic matter are projected to alleviate the decrease in net nitrogen mineralization despite a reduction in decomposition of soil organic matter by the end of the century.

RevDate: 2018-12-11

Terzi S, Torresan S, Schneiderbauer S, et al (2018)

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation.

Journal of environmental management, 232:759-771 pii:S0301-4797(18)31365-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment. According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socio-economic systems, towards climate change adaptation. Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them. Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions. The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty management, cross-sectoral assessment, adaptation measures integration, data required and level of complexity). The results show limited applications of the selected methodologies in addressing the climate and risks challenge in mountain environments. In particular, system dynamic and hybrid models demonstrate higher potential for further applications to represent climate change effects on multi-risk processes for an effective implementation of climate adaptation strategies.

RevDate: 2018-12-11

Zhu L, Wang L, CS Ma (2018)

Sporadic short temperature events cannot be neglected in predicting impacts of climate change on small insects.

Journal of insect physiology pii:S0022-1910(18)30342-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate warming is characterized by increase in extreme heat events (EHEs). EHEs and mild temperature periods alternate with each other and form complex climate scenarios. Among these scenarios, low-frequency and short-duration extreme heat events during long mild periods (sporadic short EHEs) and low-frequency and short-duration mild periods during long extreme heat events (sporadic short mild periods) commonly occur in nature. The biological effects of these two types of temperature events have not been thoroughly elucidated to date. To clarify the biological effects of these temperature events on organisms, we selected the English grain aphid, a globally important cereal pest, as our model system. We exposed aphids to simulated 24-h diurnal fluctuating temperatures, inserted these events during the wheat growing season and then investigated development, adult longevity, fecundity, survival, and demographic parameters. We found that sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE could improve their life history traits. Increasing the duration of mild periods from 1 day to 2 days did not significantly change their demographic performance. Sporadic short EHEs during a long mild period did not significantly affect vital rates, while increasing the duration of EHEs from 1 day to 2 days worsened the aphids' performance. We found that short mild episodes in the hot season may benefit small insects to buffer long duration heatwaves. We discussed how sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE supplied aphids a chance to recover from heat stress. Thus, we suggest that sporadic temperature events should be considered in population prediction of small insects under climate change and should be integrated into pest management.

RevDate: 2018-12-11

Turner B (2018)

Tackling antimicrobial resistance and climate change.

Lancet (London, England), 392(10163):2435-2436.

RevDate: 2018-12-11

Andrews O, Le Quéré C, Kjellstrom T, et al (2018)

Implications for workability and survivability in populations exposed to extreme heat under climate change: a modelling study.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 2(12):e540-e547.

BACKGROUND: Changes in temperature and humidity due to climate change affect living and working conditions. An understanding of the effects of different global temperature changes on population health is needed to inform the continued implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement and to increase global ambitions for greater cuts in emissions. By use of historical and projected climate conditions, we aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on workability (ie, the ability to work) and survivability (the ability to survive).

METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the changes in populations exposed to excessive heat stress between the recent past (ie, 1986-2005) and 2100. We used climate data from four models to calculate the wet-bulb globe temperature, an established heat exposure index that can be used to assess the effects of temperature, humidity, and other environmental factors on humans. We defined and applied thresholds for risks to workability (where the monthly mean of daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds 34°C) and survivability (where the maximum daily wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds 40°C for 3 consecutive days), and we used population projections to quantify changes in risk associated with different changes to the global temperature.

FINDINGS: The risks to workability increase substantially with global mean surface temperature in all four climate models, with approximately 1 billion people affected globally after an increase in the global temperature of about 2·5°C above pre-industrial levels. There is greater variability between climate models for exposures above the threshold for risks to survivability than for risks to workability. The number of people who are likely to be exposed to heat stress exceeding the survivability threshold increases with global temperature change, to reach around 20 million people globally after an increase of about 2·5°C, estimated from the median of the models, but with a large model uncertainty. More people are likely to be exposed to heat stress in urban than in rural areas. Population exposure can fluctuate over time and change substantially within one decade.

INTERPRETATION: Exposure to excessive heat stress is projected to be widespread in tropical or subtropical low-income and middle-income countries, highlighting the need to build on the Paris Agreement regarding global temperature targets, to protect populations who have contributed little to greenhouse gas emissions. The non-linear dependency of heat exposure risk on temperature highlights the importance of understanding thresholds in coupled human-climate systems.

FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

RevDate: 2018-12-11

Landrigan P, Fuller R, Haines A, et al (2018)

Pollution prevention and climate change mitigation: measuring the health benefits of comprehensive interventions.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 2(12):e515-e516.

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Beggs PJ, Y Zhang (2018)

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives(Summary).

The Medical journal of Australia, 209(11):474-475.

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Zhang Y, Beggs PJ, Bambrick H, et al (2018)

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives.

The Medical journal of Australia, 209(11):474.

Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia's engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Xu Y, Ramanathan V, DG Victor (2018)

Global warming will happen faster than we think.

Nature, 564(7734):30-32.

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Slatin C (2018)

Climate Change Action Requires Unity Among Movements for Justice and Peace.

New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Yu Q, Wang F, Yan W, et al (2018)

Carbon and Nitrogen Burial and Response to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Disturbance in Chaohu Lake, China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(12): pii:ijerph15122734.

Lakes are a crucial component of the global carbon and nitrogen cycle. As a trend of enhanced human activities and climate change, the mechanisms of burial remain poorly understood. In this study, diverse biogeochemical techniques were applied to analyze the temporal variation of organic carbon and nitrogen burial rates in Chaohu Lake. The results showed that burial rates have ranged from 9.39 to 35.87 g C m-2 yr-1 for carbon and from 1.66 to 5.67 g N m-2 yr-1 for nitrogen since the 1860s. The average rates were 19.6 g C m-2 yr-1 and 3.14 g N m-2 yr-1 after the 1970s, which were significantly higher than the rate before the 1970s, showing an increasing trend. The decrease of C/N ratios as well as organic matter δ13C values indicates that the major organic matter source in sediment has been algal production since the 1970s. The increase of δ15N values indicated that the promotion in productivity was stimulated by nutrient input from sewage and agricultural runoff. The burial rates of organic carbon and nitrogen were significantly positively related to socio-economics and temperature, indicating that Chaohu Lake will become an increasing carbon and nitrogen pool under conditions of enhanced human activities and intensive precipitation.

RevDate: 2018-12-03

Olusanya HO, M van Zyll de Jong (2018)

Assessing the vulnerability of freshwater fishes to climate change in Newfoundland and Labrador.

PloS one, 13(12):e0208182 pii:PONE-D-18-08535.

Freshwater fish populations are rapidly declining globally due to the impacts of rapid climate change and existing non-climatic anthropogenic stressors. In response to these drivers, freshwater fishes are responding by shifting their distribution range, altering the timing of migration and spawning and through demographic processes. By 2050, the mean daily air temperature is predicted to increase by 2 to 3 degrees C in insular Newfoundland and by 3 to 4 degrees C in Labrador. Mean daily precipitation is also projected to increase in all locations, with increased intensity projected for several regions. To mitigate negative consequences of these changes, managers require analytical approaches that describe the vulnerability of fish to climate change. To address this need, the current study adopts the National Marine Fisheries Service vulnerability assessment framework to characterize the vulnerability of freshwater fishes in Newfoundland and Labrador. Twelve vulnerability indicators were developed from an extensive literature review and applied to the assessment. Experts were solicited using an online questionnaire survey and scores for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were collated and analyzed to derive a final vulnerability score and rank for each species. The analysis showed one species to be of high-very high vulnerability, two species were highly vulnerable while four species were moderately vulnerable to climate change. The result provides insight into the factors that drive vulnerability of freshwater fishes in the region, this information is significant to decision-makers and other stakeholders engaged in managing freshwater fish resources in Newfoundland and Labrador.

RevDate: 2018-12-03

Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, et al (2018)

The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come.

Lancet (London, England) pii:S0140-6736(18)32594-7 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2018-12-03

The Lancet (2018)

Humanising health and climate change.

RevDate: 2018-12-05

Hess JJ, Lm S, Knowlton K, et al (2018)

Building Resilience to Climate Change: Pilot Evaluation of the Impact of India's First Heat Action Plan on All-Cause Mortality.

Journal of environmental and public health, 2018:7973519.

Background: Ahmedabad implemented South Asia's first heat action plan (HAP) after a 2010 heatwave. This study evaluates the HAP's impact on all-cause mortality in 2014-2015 relative to a 2007-2010 baseline.

Methods: We analyzed daily maximum temperature (Tmax)-mortality relationships before and after HAP. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) for daily mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models and mortality incidence rates (IRs) for HAP warning days, comparing pre- and post-HAP periods, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs). We estimated the number of deaths avoided after HAP implementation using pre- and post-HAP IRs.

Results: The maximum pre-HAP RR was 2.34 (95%CI 1.98-2.76) at 47°C (lag 0), and the maximum post-HAP RR was 1.25 (1.02-1.53) estimated at 47°C (lag 0). Post-to-pre-HAP nonlagged mortality IRR for Tmax over 40°C was 0.95 (0.73-1.22) and 0.73 (0.29-1.81) for Tmax over 45°C. An estimated 1,190 (95%CI 162-2,218) average annualized deaths were avoided in the post-HAP period.

Conclusion: Extreme heat and HAP warnings after implementation were associated with decreased summertime all-cause mortality rates, with largest declines at highest temperatures. Ahmedabad's plan can serve as a guide for other cities attempting to increase resilience to extreme heat.

RevDate: 2018-12-05

Sarkodie SA, V Strezov (2018)

Economic, social and governance adaptation readiness for mitigation of climate change vulnerability: Evidence from 192 countries.

The Science of the total environment, 656:150-164 pii:S0048-9697(18)34705-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Adaptation strategies have become critical in climate change mitigation and impact reduction, to safeguard population and the ecosystem from irreparable damage. While developed countries have integrated adaptation plans and policies into their developmental agenda, developing countries are facilitating or yet to initiate adaptation policies in their development. This study examines the nexus between climate change vulnerability and adaptation readiness in 192 UN countries using mapping and panel data models. The study reveals Africa as the most vulnerable continent to climate change with high sensitivity, high exposure, and low adaptive capacity. Developed countries, including Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Spain, and Germany, are less vulnerable to climate change due to strong economic, governance and social adaptation readiness. International commitment from developed countries to developing countries is essential to strengthen their resilience, economic readiness and adaptive capacity to climate-related events.

RevDate: 2018-12-04

Mukundan R, Scheerer M, Gelda RK, et al (2018)

Probabilistic Estimation of Stream Turbidity and Application under Climate Change Scenarios.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(6):1522-1529.

Streamflow-based rating curves are widely used to estimate turbidity or suspended sediment concentrations in streams. However, such estimates are often inaccurate at the event scale due to inter- and intra-event variability in sediment-streamflow relationships. In this study, we use a quantile regression approach to derive a probabilistic distribution of turbidity predictions for Esopus Creek, a major stream in one of the watersheds that supply drinking water to New York City, using measured daily mean streamflow-turbidity data pairs for 2003 to 2016. Although a single regression curve can underpredict or overpredict the actual observation, quantile regression can estimate a range of possible turbidity values for a given value of streamflow. Regression relationships for various quantiles were applied to streamflows simulated by a watershed model to predict stream turbidity under: (i) the observed historical climate, and (ii) a future climate derived from 20 global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Future scenarios using quantile regression in combination with these GCMs and a stochastic weather generator indicated an increase in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological events that may generate high stream turbidity and cause potential water quality challenges to the water supply. The methods outlined in this study can be used for probabilistic estimation of stream turbidity for operational decisions and can be part of a vulnerability-based method to explore climate impacts on water resources.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
21454 NE 143rd Street
Woodinville, WA 98077

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )