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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 27 May 2022 at 01:53 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)


RevDate: 2022-05-26

Ray A, Pandey VP, BR Thapa (2022)

An assessment of climate change impacts on water sufficiency: The case of Extended East Rapti watershed, Nepal.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(22)00761-7 [Epub ahead of print].

An understanding of water sufficiency provides a basis for informed-planning, development and management of water resources. This study assessed spatio-temporal distribution in water sufficiency in the Extended East Rapti watershed in Nepal. The "Palika" (local government unit) is considered as a spatial-scale and seasons and future periods as temporal-scale. The water sufficiency was evaluated based on water sufficiency ratio (WSR) and water stress index (WSI). A hydrological model was developed to simulate water availability. An ensemble of multiple Regional Climate Models was used for assessing climate change impacts. Results showed water sufficiency by mid-century is projected to decrease; WSR by 40% and WSI by 61%. Despite projected decrease in water sufficiency, annually available water resources are projected as sufficient for the demands until the mid-century, however, seasonal variability and scarcity in future is projected in most Palikas. Such results are useful for water security planning in the Palikas.

RevDate: 2022-05-26

Wild K, Tapley A, Fielding A, et al (2022)

Climate change and Australian general practice vocational education: a cross-sectional study.

Family practice pii:6591882 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Climate change is a rapidly progressing threat to global health and well-being. For general practitioners (GPs) currently in training, the effects of climate change on public health will shape their future professional practice We aimed to establish the prevalence and associations of Australian GP registrars' (trainees') perceptions of climate change as it relates to public health, education, and workplaces.

METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study of GP registrars of three Australian training organizations. The questionnaire assessed attitudes regarding adverse health effects of climate change (over the next 10-20 years), and agreement with statements on (i) integrating health impacts of climate change into GP vocational training, and (ii) GPs' role in making general practices environmentally sustainable.

RESULTS: Of 879 registrars who participated (response rate 91%), 50.4% (95% CI 46.8%, 54.0%) perceived a large or very large future health effect of climate change on their patients, and 61.8% (95% CI 58.6%, 65.0%) agreed that climate health impacts should be integrated within their education programme. 77.8% (95% CI 74.9%, 80.4%) agreed that GPs should have a leadership role in their practices' environmental sustainability. Multivariable associations of these attitudes included female gender, training region, and (for the latter two outcomes) perceptions of future impact of climate change on patient health.

CONCLUSIONS: GP registrars are motivated to receive climate health education and engage in environmentally sustainable practice. This may primarily reflect concern for future practice and patient care.

RevDate: 2022-05-26

Gregersen T, Doran R, Böhm G, et al (2022)

Did concern about COVID-19 drain from a 'finite pool of worry' for climate change? Results from longitudinal panel data.

The journal of climate change and health pii:S2667-2782(22)00033-5 [Epub ahead of print].

According to the 'finite pool of worry' hypothesis, one may expect that introducing a novel concern (e.g., about a pandemic) may reduce concern about an existing issue (e.g., about climate change). Drawing upon representative longitudinal panel data from Norway (N = 7998), this paper explores if and how worry about climate change changed from January 2020 (before COVID-19 was detected in Norway) to January 2021 (during one of the pandemic waves). The current analyses indicate a small but significant decrease in worry about climate change among the general public during this time interval, in particular among respondents born before 1980. However, the change in climate change worry did not correlate with worrying about becoming infected with COVID-19 yourself, or with family members being infected. Thus, the results do not indicate a mechanism of worrying about COVID-19 infections leading to a decrease in people's worry about climate change. The findings are discussed in relation to empirical evidence from other countries, where climate change risk perceptions have been monitored during the recent pandemic. Possible explanations for observed differences in worry about climate change, as well as the lack of correlation with worry about COVID-19, are discussed.

RevDate: 2022-05-26

Fernández I, T Mozanzadeh M, Hao Y, et al (2022)

Editorial: Physiological Impacts of Global Warming in Aquatic Organisms.

Frontiers in physiology, 13:914912 pii:914912.

RevDate: 2022-05-26

Rabbani MMG, Cotton M, R Friend (2022)

Climate change and non-migration - exploring the role of place relations in rural and coastal Bangladesh.

Population and environment pii:402 [Epub ahead of print].

Of growing research and policy interest are the experiences of people living under conditions of climate change-induced environmental stress, which either are unable to migrate (sometimes described as a 'trapped population') or are seemingly unwilling to do so (sometimes described as the 'voluntarily immobile'). This paper problematises and expands upon these binary categories: examining the complex dimensionality of non-migration as a form of place relations, explored through qualitative study of rural and coastal Bangladeshi communities. Through 60 semi-structured interviews of individuals from four communities in the Kalapara region, the analysis proffers four qualitatively derived and inter-related dimensions of voluntary and involuntary non-migration framed as a form of place relations. These four dimensions concern the following: (1) livelihood opportunities, (2) place obduracy, (3) risk perceptions, and (4) social-structural constraints, with the interplay between these elements explaining diverse non-migratory experiences. In our analysis, 'place obduracy' is introduced as a concept to describe the differential speed of environmental change and socio-cultural adaptation responses to explain non-migratory experiences. Our discussion provides insight into how to best support non-migrant people's adaptive capacity in the face of growing climate emergency.

RevDate: 2022-05-26

Whelan M, Rahimi-Golkhandan S, E Brymer (2022)

The Relationship Between Climate Change Issue Engagement, Connection to Nature and Mental Wellbeing.

Frontiers in public health, 10:790578.

As the threat of climate change becomes increasingly prevalent for people in both the developed and developing world, the impact of climate change on mental wellbeing has become a crucial area of research. In addition to the direct, indirect, and psychosocial impacts of climate change on mental wellbeing, there is also a question of how climate change driven changes to the environment will influence the well-established positive relationship between connection to nature and mental wellbeing. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between climate change issue engagement, connection to nature, and mental wellbeing in English speaking adults over 18 years of age. This study examined the average levels of connection to nature and mental wellbeing in people with different levels of climate change issue engagement, and evaluated whether a person's level of climate change issue engagement uniquely predicted mental wellbeing. The study corroborated positive relationships between wellbeing and various aspects of relatedness to nature in the overall sample. The strength of these relationships, however, depended on the level of climate change issue engagement. More specifically, the level of engagement is inversely linked to mental wellbeing, such that the lower the level of engagement, generally the higher is wellbeing.

RevDate: 2022-05-26

Ahmed M, Hayat R, Ahmad M, et al (2022)

Impact of Climate Change on Dryland Agricultural Systems: A Review of Current Status, Potentials, and Further Work Need.

International journal of plant production pii:197 [Epub ahead of print].

Dryland agricultural system is under threat due to climate extremes and unsustainable management. Understanding of climate change impact is important to design adaptation options for dry land agricultural systems. Thus, the present review was conducted with the objectives to identify gaps and suggest technology-based intervention that can support dry land farming under changing climate. Careful management of the available agricultural resources in the region is a current need, as it will play crucial role in the coming decades to ensure food security, reduce poverty, hunger, and malnutrition. Technology based regional collaborative interventions among Universities, Institutions, Growers, Companies etc. for water conservation, supplemental irrigation, foliar sprays, integrated nutrient management, resilient crops-based cropping systems, artificial intelligence, and precision agriculture (modeling and remote sensing) are needed to support agriculture of the region. Different process-based models have been used in different regions around the world to quantify the impacts of climate change at field, regional, and national scales to design management options for dryland cropping systems. Modeling include water and nutrient management, ideotype designing, modification in tillage practices, application of cover crops, insect, and disease management. However, diversification in the mixed and integrated crop and livestock farming system is needed to have profitable, sustainable business. The main focus in this work is to recommend different agro-adaptation measures to be part of policies for sustainable agricultural production systems in future.

RevDate: 2022-05-25

Li A, Wang M, Kroeze C, et al (2022)

Past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socioeconomic development and climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 317:115361 pii:S0301-4797(22)00934-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Increasing pesticide use pollutes Chinese surface waters. Pesticides often enter waters through surface runoff from agricultural fields. This occurs especially during heavy rainfall events. Socio-economic development and climate change may accelerate future loss of pesticides to surface waters due to increasing food production and rainfall events. The main objective of this study is to model past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socio-economic development and climate change. To this end, we developed a pesticide model with local information to quantify the potential pesticide runoff from near-stream agriculture to surface waters after heavy rainfall. We project future trends in potential pesticide runoff. For this, we developed three scenarios: Sustainability, "Middle of the Road" and Economy-first. These scenarios are based on combined Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. We identified hotspots with high potential pesticide runoff. The results show that the potential pesticide runoff increased by 45% from 2000 to 2010, nationally. Over 50% of the national pesticide runoff in 2000 was in five provinces. Over 60% of the Chinese population lived in pesticide polluted hotspots in 2000. For the future, trends differ among scenarios and years. The largest increase is projected for the Economy-first scenario, where the potential pesticide runoff is projected to increase by 85% between 2010 and 2099. Future pesticide pollution hotspots are projected to concentrate in the south and south-east of China. This is the net-effect of high pesticide application, intensive crop production and high precipitation due to climate change. In our scenarios, 58%-84% of the population is projected to live in pesticide polluted hotspots from 2050 onwards. These projections can support the development of regional management strategies to control pesticide pollution in waters in the future.

RevDate: 2022-05-25

Nogueira L, White KE, Bell B, et al (2022)

The Role of Behavioral Medicine in Addressing Climate Change-Related Health Inequities.

Translational behavioral medicine, 12(4):526-534.

Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in human history. It has been declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization and leading researchers from academic institutions around the globe. Structural racism disproportionately exposes communities targeted for marginalization to the harmful consequences of climate change through greater risk of exposure and sensitivity to climate hazards and less adaptive capacity to the health threats of climate change. Given its interdisciplinary approach to integrating behavioral, psychosocial, and biomedical knowledge, the discipline of behavioral medicine is uniquely qualified to address the systemic causes of climate change-related health inequities and can offer a perspective that is currently missing from many climate and health equity efforts. In this article, we summarize relevant concepts, describe how climate change and structural racism intersect to exacerbate health inequities, and recommend six strategies with the greatest potential for addressing climate-related health inequities.

RevDate: 2022-05-25

Diefenbach MA, Miller SM, KL Hall (2022)

Climate change and behavior: considerations for the behavioral medicine community and a call to action.

Translational behavioral medicine, 12(4):501-502.

RevDate: 2022-05-25

Edmondson D, Conroy D, Romero-Canyas R, et al (2022)

Climate change, behavior change and health: a multidisciplinary, translational and multilevel perspective.

Translational behavioral medicine, 12(4):503-515.

The climate crisis provides a critical new lens through which health and health behaviors need to be viewed. This paper has three goals. First, it provides background on the climate crisis, the role of human behavior in creating this crisis, and the health impacts of climate change. Second, it proposes a multilevel, translational approach to investigating health behavior change in the context of the climate crisis. Third, it identifies specific challenges and opportunities for increasing the rigor of behavioral medicine research in the context of the climate crisis. The paper closes with a call for behavioral medicine to be responsive to the climate crisis.

RevDate: 2022-05-25

Peters E, Boyd P, Cameron LD, et al (2022)

Evidence-based recommendations for communicating the impacts of climate change on health.

Translational behavioral medicine, 12(4):543-553.

Climate change poses a multifaceted, complex, and existential threat to human health and well-being, but efforts to communicate these threats to the public lag behind what we know how to do in communication research. Effective communication about climate change's health risks can improve a wide variety of individual and population health-related outcomes by: (1) helping people better make the connection between climate change and health risks and (2) empowering them to act on that newfound knowledge and understanding. The aim of this manuscript is to highlight communication methods that have received empirical support for improving knowledge uptake and/or driving higher-quality decision making and healthier behaviors and to recommend how to apply them at the intersection of climate change and health. This expert consensus about effective communication methods can be used by healthcare professionals, decision makers, governments, the general public, and other stakeholders including sectors outside of health. In particular, we argue for the use of 11 theory-based, evidence-supported communication strategies and practices. These methods range from leveraging social networks to making careful choices about the use of language, narratives, emotions, visual images, and statistics. Message testing with appropriate groups is also key. When implemented properly, these approaches are likely to improve the outcomes of climate change and health communication efforts.

RevDate: 2022-05-24

Ntiamoah EB, Li D, Appiah-Otoo I, et al (2022)

Towards a sustainable food production: modelling the impacts of climate change on maize and soybean production in Ghana.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

The Ghanaian economy relies heavily on maize and soybean production. The entire maize and soybean production system is low-tech, making it extremely susceptible to environmental factors. As a result, climate change and variability have an influence on agricultural production, such as maize and soybean yields. Therefore, the study's ultimate purpose was to analyze the influence of CO2 emissions, precipitation, domestic credit, and fertilizer consumption on maize and soybean productivity in Ghana by utilizing the newly constructed dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period 1990 to 2020. The findings indicated that climate change enhances maize and soybean yields in Ghana in both the short run and long run. Also, the results from the frequency domain causality showed that climate change causes maize and soybean yield in the long-run. These outcomes were robust to the use of the ordinary least squares estimator and the impulse response technique. The findings show that crop and water management strategies, as well as information availability, should be considered in food production to improve resistance to climate change and adverse climatic circumstances.

RevDate: 2022-05-24

Beillouin D, Demenois J, Cardinael R, et al (2022)

A global database of land management, land-use change and climate change effects on soil organic carbon.

Scientific data, 9(1):228.

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) in natural and cultivated ecosystems is proposed as a natural climate solution to limit global warming. SOC dynamics is driven by numerous factors such as land-use change, land management and climate change. The amount of additional carbon potentially stored in the soil is the subject of much debate in the scientific community. We present a global database compiling the results of 217 meta-analyses analyzing the effects of land management, land-use change and climate change on SOC. We report a total of 15,857 effect sizes, 6,550 directly related to soil carbon, and 9,307 related to other associated soil or plant variables. The database further synthesizes results of 13,632 unique primary studies across more than 150 countries that were used in the meta-analyses. Meta-analyses and their effect sizes and were classified by type of intervention and land use, outcomes, country and region. This database helps to understand the drivers of SOC sequestration, the associated co-benefits and potential drawbacks, and is a useful tool to guide future global climate change policies.

RevDate: 2022-05-24

Pinsky ML, Comte L, DF Sax (2022)

Unifying climate change biology across realms and taxa.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(22)00110-0 [Epub ahead of print].

A major challenge in modern biology is to understand extinction risk from climate change across all realms. Recent research has revealed that physiological tolerance, behavioral thermoregulation, and small elevation shifts are dominant coping strategies on land, whereas large-scale latitudinal shifts are more important in the ocean. Freshwater taxa may face the highest global extinction risks. Nevertheless, some species in each realm face similar risks because of shared adaptive, dispersal, or physiological tolerances and abilities. Taking a cross-realm perspective offers unique research opportunities because confounding physical factors in one realm are often disaggregated in another realm. Cross-realm, across taxa, and other forms of climate change biology synthesis are needed to advance our understanding of emergent patterns of risk across all life.

RevDate: 2022-05-24

Nasiri R, Zarandi SM, Bayat M, et al (2022)

Design a protocol to investigate the effects of climate change in vivo.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(22)00809-X [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has a variety of effects on communities and the environment, most of which have been directly addressed, such as floods, droughts, and fires. To date, the impacts of climate change on health in in vivo conditions have not been assessed, and no protocol has been developed in this regard. Therefore, the purpose of the current study is to develop a protocol as well as design and build a pilot to deal with climate change in vivo to show the direct effects of climate change on health. For this purpose, twenty specialists, comprising ten experts active in field climate and 10 experts in field medicine and anatomy, have been consulted to design the proposed exposure protocol using the Delphi method. According to the prepared protocol, an exposure pilot was then designed and built, which provides the climatic conditions for animal exposure with a fully automatic HMI-PLC system. The results showed the average 12:12-h day/night temperature, humidity, and circadian cycle for three consecutive ten-year periods selected for exposure of 1-month-old male rats. The duration of the exposure period is four months, which is equivalent to a ten-year climatic period. This study is a framework and a starting point for examining the effects of climate change on in vivo conditions that have not yet been considered.

RevDate: 2022-05-24

Wortzel JD, Champlin LK, Wortzel JR, et al (2022)

Reframing Climate Change: Using Children's Literature as a Residency Training Tool to Address Climate Anxiety and Model Innovation.

RevDate: 2022-05-24

Obubu JP, Odong R, Alamerew T, et al (2022)

Application of DPSIR model to identify the drivers and impacts of land use and land cover changes and climate change on land, water, and livelihoods in the L. Kyoga basin: implications for sustainable management.

Environmental systems research, 11(1):11.

Land use, land cover, and climate change impacts are current global challenges that are affecting many sectors, like agricultural production, socio-economic development, water quality, and causing land fragmentation. In developing countries like Uganda, rural areas with high populations dependent on agriculture are the most affected. The development of sustainable management measures requires proper identification of drivers and impacts on the environment and livelihoods of the affected communities. This study applied drivers, pressure, state, impact, and response model in the L. Kyoga basin to determine the drivers and impacts of land use, land cover, and climate change on livelihoods and the environment. The objective of this study was to determine the drivers and impacts of land use, land cover, and climate changes on the environment and livelihoods in the L. Kyoga basin and suggest sustainable mitigation measures. Focus group discussions, key informant interviews, field observations, and literature reviews were used to collect data. Population increase and climate change were the leading drivers, while agriculture and urbanization were the primary pressures, leading to degraded land, wetlands, and forests; loss of soil fertility, hunger, poverty, poor water quality, which are getting worse. The local communities, government, and non-government institutions had responses to impacts, including agrochemicals, restoration, and conservation approaches. Although most responses were at a small/pilot scale level, most responses had promising results. The application of policies and regulations to manage impacts was also found to be weak. Land use, land cover changes, and climate change occur in the L. Kyoga basin with major impacts on land, water, and community livelihoods. With the observed increase in climate change and population growth, drivers and impacts are potentially getting worse. Therefore, it is essential to expand interventions, provide relief, review policies and regulations, and enforce them. The findings are helpful for decisions and policy-makers to design appropriate management options.

RevDate: 2022-05-23

Coleman J (2022)

Climate change made South Asian heatwave 30 times more likely.

RevDate: 2022-05-23

Dreyfus GB, Xu Y, Shindell DT, et al (2022)

Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(22):e2123536119.

SignificanceThis study clarifies the need for comprehensive CO2 and non-CO2 mitigation approaches to address both near-term and long-term warming. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) are responsible for nearly half of all climate forcing from GHG. However, the importance of non-CO2 pollutants, in particular short-lived climate pollutants, in climate mitigation has been underrepresented. When historical emissions are partitioned into fossil fuel (FF)- and non-FF-related sources, we find that nearly half of the positive forcing from FF and land-use change sources of CO2 emissions has been masked by coemission of cooling aerosols. Pairing decarbonization with mitigation measures targeting non-CO2 pollutants is essential for limiting not only the near-term (next 25 y) warming but also the 2100 warming below 2 °C.

RevDate: 2022-05-23

Tian H, Li N, Li Y, et al (2022)

Erratum: Author Correction: Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change.

Communications medicine, 2:22 pii:89.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s43856-022-00073-z.].

RevDate: 2022-05-23

Katzman JG, Tomedi LE, Herring D, et al (2022)

Educating Community Health Professionals About the Health-Related Effects of Climate Change Through ECHO Telementoring.

Journal of primary care & community health, 13:21501319221102033.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global public health emergency causing extensive morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although most large medical organizations endorse the need to train health care professionals in climate change, such trainings are not readily available.

METHODS: This article describes the results of an 8-week, 75-min per week, Climate Change and Human Health ECHO (CCHH ECHO) synchronous telementoring course for post-licensure health professionals. The primary goals were: to increase knowledge, self-efficacy, and communication skills. Participants were eligible to receive up to 10 h of no-cost continuing education credits and a certificate for completing the program.

RESULTS: The 8-week course included 625 unique participants from 25 countries. An interprofessional group of clinicians, health professionals, and educators included: 130/28% PhD, 92/20% MD/DO, 52/12% RN/NP/PA, 50/11% MPH. The prospective survey demonstrated a significant improvement in knowledge, confidence, attitudes (P < .001) and communication skills (P = .029) at 3 months post course.

CONCLUSIONS: The climate crisis is a public health emergency, and health professionals worldwide are considered the most trusted source of health information. Training current and future health professionals regarding the health-related effects of global warming is vital. The CCHH ECHO may be a successful model to facilitate knowledge transfer and promote communication skills between subject matter experts and course participants.

RevDate: 2022-05-23

Tian H, Li N, Li Y, et al (2022)

Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change.

Communications medicine, 2:12 pii:73.

Background: Rigorous assessment of the effect of malaria control strategies on local malaria dynamics is a complex but vital step in informing future strategies to eliminate malaria. However, the interactions between climate forcing, mass drug administration, mosquito control and their effects on the incidence of malaria remain unclear.

Methods: Here, we analyze the effects of interventions on the transmission dynamics of malaria (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum) on Hainan Island, China, controlling for environmental factors. Mathematical models were fitted to epidemiological data, including confirmed cases and population-wide blood examinations, collected between 1995 and 2010, a period when malaria control interventions were rolled out with positive outcomes.

Results: Prior to the massive scale-up of interventions, malaria incidence shows both interannual variability and seasonality, as well as a strong correlation with climatic patterns linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Based on our mechanistic model, we find that the reduction in malaria is likely due to the large scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets, which reduce the infections of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria by 93.4% and 35.5%, respectively. Mass drug administration has a greater contribution in the control of P. falciparum (54.9%) than P. vivax (5.3%). In a comparison of interventions, indoor residual spraying makes a relatively minor contribution to malaria control (1.3%-9.6%).

Conclusions: Although malaria transmission on Hainan Island has been exacerbated by El Nino Southern Oscillation, control methods have eliminated both P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria from this part of China.

RevDate: 2022-05-23

Ulichney V, Jarcho JM, Shipley TF, et al (2022)

Social comparison for concern and action on climate change, racial injustice, and COVID-19.

Analyses of social issues and public policy : ASAP pii:ASAP12309 [Epub ahead of print].

Preventing the negative impacts of major, intersectional social issues hinges on personal concern and willingness to take action. This research examines social comparison in the context of climate change, racial injustice, and COVID-19 during Fall 2020. Participants in a U.S. university sample (n = 288), reported personal levels of concern and action and estimated peers' concern and action regarding these three issues. Participants estimated that they were more concerned than peers for all three issues and took more action than peers regarding COVID-19 and climate change. Participants who reported higher levels of personal concern also estimated that they took greater action than peers (relative to participants who reported lower levels of concern). Exploratory analyses found that perceived personal control over social issues were associated with greater concern and action for racial injustice and climate change but not for COVID-19. This indicates that issue-specific features, including perceived controllability, may drive people to differently assess their experiences of distinct social issues.

RevDate: 2022-05-23

Heyvaert V (2022)

Governing Intersystemic Systemic Risks: Lessons from Covid and Climate Change.

The Modern law review pii:MLR12720 [Epub ahead of print].

This article argues that contemporary regulation of climate change risks and zoonotic disease risks - two seminal risks of our era - is deficient because it fails to account for the most distinctive characteristics of their risk profiles. These risks are part of a special category of intersystemic systemic risks, which are 'compound' in nature: they possess the potential to cascade across different systems and entail a liability to exponential growth across numbers of linked systems. Moreover, climate change and zoonotic disease risks are globalised, ubiquitous and entrenched. Effective governance of intersystemic systemic risks demands proactive regulatory intervention at the early stages of risk creation, and reliance on a more balanced basket of regulatory measures than is currently available. For climate change as well as zoonotic disease risk control, this calls for greater investment in assessment requirements, a less permissive approach to planning and development consent, and a commitment to phase out unsustainable production processes.

RevDate: 2022-05-23

Olesen JM (2022)

Ego network analysis of the trophic structure of an island land bird through 300 years of climate change and invaders.

Ecology and evolution, 12(5):e8916 pii:ECE38916.

Ego net analysis is a well-known practice in social sciences, where an ego net (EN) consists of a focal node, the ego, and its links to other nodes, called alters, and alter-alter links may also be included. An EN describes how a focal node is embedded in its interaction context. Here, I introduce EN analysis to ecology in a study of the trophic network of a sub-Antarctic land bird, Lesser Sheathbill (Chionis minor). Data originate from the sheathbill population on Marion Island in the Southern Ocean. The bird is ego and its enemies and food are alters. The EN is organized along three dimensions: habitat, interaction type, and time (from before human arrival in 1803 and until a future year 2100). Ten EN descriptors are defined, estimated, and used to track the 300 years of change in sheathbill EN structure. Since 1803, the EN has passed two major, but reversible shifts-seal exploitation in the 19th century and presence of cats from 1949 to 1991. These shifts can be read as structural changes in the sheathbill EN. In the future, a third, perhaps irreversible change is predicted, driven by climate change and a surprising, recent shift to seabird predation by House Mouse, the most detrimental of all extant invaders on Marion. In a warmer and drier future, the mouse will proliferate, and if this forces seabirds to abandon the island, their accumulation of detritus runs dry, starving a rich invertebrate detritivore fauna, which also is a key food source to sheathbills. These detritivores together with plants have also constituted the main food sources of mice. The EN descriptors quantify that story. In the future, these events may lead to a collapse of the island ecosystem, including extinction of the sheathbill-unless plans for mouse eradication are implemented.

RevDate: 2022-05-22

Isler MF, Coates SJ, MD Boos (2022)

Climate change, the cutaneous microbiome and skin disease: implications for a warming world.

International journal of dermatology [Epub ahead of print].

The skin plays an important role in human health by providing barrier protection against environmental stressors. In addition to human skin cells, the cutaneous barrier is also home to a network of organisms that have co-evolved with humans, referred to as the cutaneous microbiome. This network has been demonstrated to play an active role in skin health and the manifestation of cutaneous disease. Here, we review how a warming world and its attendant changes in climatic variables, including temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and air pollution, influence the cutaneous microbiome and, in turn, skin health. Studies indicate that the cutaneous microbiome is affected by these factors, and these changes may influence the epidemiology and severity of cutaneous disorders including atopic dermatitis, acne vulgaris, psoriasis, and skin cancer. Further investigation into how the cutaneous microbiome changes in response to climate change and subsequently influences skin disease is needed to better anticipate future dermatologic needs and potentially generate novel therapeutic solutions in response.

RevDate: 2022-05-21

Ehsan S, Begum RA, Abdul Maulud KN, et al (2022)

Households' perceptions and socio-economic determinants of climate change awareness: Evidence from Selangor Coast Malaysia.

Journal of environmental management, 316:115261 pii:S0301-4797(22)00834-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Households living in the close vicinity of shoreline are constantly threatened by various climate change impacts. Community awareness towards climate change is a subject of considerable study as adequate knowledge is a preliminary step for adaptation decision making. An important question is how coastal communities perceive climatic variation, sea level rise and coastal hazard impacts and the socio-economic factors that affect their level of awareness. Thus, this research measures the level of awareness and the factors influencing it based on a household survey (n = 1016) that was conducted 10 critically eroded coastal areas in Selangor. Descriptive statistical analysis reveals that more than half of the households have high level of awareness about climatic variation and sea level, however, there is moderate awareness about the coastal hazard impacts such as human causalities and disease transmission. Even though households are more aware of direct coastal hazard impact such as damages to properties and disruption of daily activities. An independent sample T test indicates that respondents who are male, at working age, educated, involve in natural resource dependent occupations, and had prior exposure to extreme coastal hazards have higher levels of awareness. Research indicated about 55% of all sampled households reflected awareness of climate change, 60% households were aware of sea level rise and 47% households were aware of coastal hazard impact. This study recommends that households in Selangor coast need capacity building and climate change awareness initiatives which would assist household to build adaptive capacity, increase resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change.

RevDate: 2022-05-20

Graham LA, Gauthier SY, PL Davies (2022)

Origin of an antifreeze protein gene in response to Cenozoic climate change.

Scientific reports, 12(1):8536.

Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) inhibit ice growth within fish and protect them from freezing in icy seawater. Alanine-rich, alpha-helical AFPs (type I) have independently (convergently) evolved in four branches of fishes, one of which is a subsection of the righteye flounders. The origin of this gene family has been elucidated by sequencing two loci from a starry flounder, Platichthys stellatus, collected off Vancouver Island, British Columbia. The first locus had two alleles that demonstrated the plasticity of the AFP gene family, one encoding 33 AFPs and the other allele only four. In the closely related Pacific halibut, this locus encodes multiple Gig2 (antiviral) proteins, but in the starry flounder, the Gig2 genes were found at a second locus due to a lineage-specific duplication event. An ancestral Gig2 gave rise to a 3-kDa "skin" AFP isoform, encoding three Ala-rich 11-a.a. repeats, that is expressed in skin and other peripheral tissues. Subsequent gene duplications, followed by internal duplications of the 11 a.a. repeat and the gain of a signal sequence, gave rise to circulating AFP isoforms. One of these, the "hyperactive" 32-kDa Maxi likely underwent a contraction to a shorter 3.3-kDa "liver" isoform. Present day starry flounders found in Pacific Rim coastal waters from California to Alaska show a positive correlation between latitude and AFP gene dosage, with the shorter allele being more prevalent at lower latitudes. This study conclusively demonstrates that the flounder AFP arose from the Gig2 gene, so it is evolutionarily unrelated to the three other classes of type I AFPs from non-flounders. Additionally, this gene arose and underwent amplification coincident with the onset of ocean cooling during the Cenozoic ice ages.

RevDate: 2022-05-20

Ge Q, Hao M, Ding F, et al (2022)

Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data.

Nature communications, 13(1):2839.

Understanding the risk of armed conflict is essential for promoting peace. Although the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict has been studied by the research community for decades with quantitative and qualitative methods at different spatial and temporal scales, causal linkages at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here we adopt a quantitative modelling framework based on machine learning to infer potential causal linkages from high-frequency time-series data and simulate the risk of armed conflict worldwide from 2000-2015. Our results reveal that the risk of armed conflict is primarily influenced by stable background contexts with complex patterns, followed by climate deviations related covariates. The inferred patterns show that positive temperature deviations or precipitation extremes are associated with increased risk of armed conflict worldwide. Our findings indicate that a better understanding of climate-conflict linkages at the global scale enhances the spatiotemporal modelling capacity for the risk of armed conflict.

RevDate: 2022-05-20

Greenfield MH (2022)

An urgent need to reassess climate change and child labour in agriculture.

The Lancet. Planetary health pii:S2542-5196(22)00118-8 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2022-05-20

Spanjer AR, Gendaszek AS, Wulfkuhle EJ, et al (2022)

Assessing climate change impacts on Pacific salmon and trout using bioenergetics and spatiotemporal explicit river temperature predictions under varying riparian conditions.

PloS one, 17(5):e0266871 pii:PONE-D-21-18498.

Pacific salmon and trout populations are affected by timber harvest, the removal and alteration of riparian vegetation, and the resulting physical changes to water quality, temperature, and associated delivery of high-quality terrestrial prey. Juvenile salmon and trout growth, a key predictor of survival, is poorly understood in the context of current and future (climate-change mediated) conditions, with resource managers needing information on how land use will impact future river conditions for these commercially and culturally important species. We used the Heat Source water temperature modeling framework to develop a spatiotemporal model to assess how riparian canopy and vegetation preservation and addition could influence river temperatures under future climate predictions in a coastal river fed by a moraine-dammed lake: the Quinault River in Washington State. The model predicted higher water temperatures under future carbon emission projections, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with varying magnitude based on different riparian vegetation scenarios. We used the daily average temperature output from these scenarios to predict potential juvenile fish growth using the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. A combination of riparian vegetation removal and continued high carbon emissions resulted in a predicted seven-day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) increase of 1.7°C in the lower river by 2080; increases in riparian shading mitigate this 7DADM increase to only 0.9°C. Under the current thermal regime, bioenergetics modeling predicts juvenile fish lose weight in the lower river; this loss of potential growth worsens by an average of 20-83% in the lower river by 2080, increasing with the loss of riparian shading. This study assess the impact of riparian vegetation management on future thermal habitat for Pacific salmon and trout under warming climates and provide a useful spatially explicit modeling framework that managers can use to make decisions regarding riparian vegetation management and its mechanistic impact to water temperature and rearing juvenile fish.

RevDate: 2022-05-20

Devlin M (2022)

Coral Reefs: The good and not so good news with future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2022-05-20

Cáceres C, Leiva-Bianchi M, Ormazábal Y, et al (2022)

Post-traumatic stress in people from the interior drylands of the Maule region, Chile in the context of climate change.

Geospatial health, 17(1):.

Progressive changes in local environmental scenarios, accelerated by global climate change, can negatively affect the mental health of people who inhabit these areas. The magnitude of these effects may vary depending on the socioeconomic conditions of people and the characteristics of the environment, so certain territories can be more vulnerable than others. In this context, the present study aimed to geographically analyse the levels of psychosocial impact and the types of disruptive responses related to the new territorial scenarios caused by climate change in the coastal drylands of the Maule region, Chile. For this purpose, 223 people from two communes (Curepto and Pencahue) were psychosocially evaluated for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) together with a survey of the prevailing sociodemographic and socioeconomic conditions in relation to the environmental variables of the territory. All information was georeferenced, stored within an ArcGIS Desktop geographic information system (GIS) and then investigated by application of contingency tables, ANOVA and local clustering analysis using SSP statistical software. The results indicated a high level of PTSD in the population, with significant differences related to age and education as well as employment conditions and income. The spatial results showed high PTSD values in the communal capital of Curepto in the central agricultural valley near the estuary of the local river, while the existence of coldspots was observed in the central valley of the Pencahue commune. It was concluded that proximity to population centres and surface water sources played the greatest role for the development of PTSD.

RevDate: 2022-05-20

Khan K, Ishfaq M, Amin MN, et al (2022)

Evaluation of Mechanical and Microstructural Properties and Global Warming Potential of Green Concrete with Wheat Straw Ash and Silica Fume.

Materials (Basel, Switzerland), 15(9): pii:ma15093177.

Cement and concrete are among the major contributors to CO2 emissions in modern society. Researchers have been investigating the possibility of replacing cement with industrial waste in concrete production to reduce its environmental impact. Therefore, the focus of this paper is on the effective use of wheat straw ash (WSA) together with silica fume (SF) as a cement substitute to produce high-performance and sustainable concrete. Different binary and ternary mixes containing WSA and SF were investigated for their mechanical and microstructural properties and global warming potential (GWP). The current results indicated that the binary and ternary mixes containing, respectively, 20% WSA (WSA20) and 33% WSA together with 7% SF (WSA33SF7) exhibited higher strengths than that of control mix and other binary and ternary mixes. The comparative lower apparent porosity and water absorption values of WSA20 and WSA33SF7 among all mixes also validated the findings of their higher strength results. Moreover, SEM-EDS and FTIR analyses has revealed the presence of dense and compact microstructure, which are mostly caused by formation of high-density calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) and calcium hydroxide (C-H) phases in both blends. FTIR and TGA analyses also revealed a reduction in the portlandite phase in these mixes, causing densification of microstructures and pores. Additionally, N2 adsorption isotherm analysis demonstrates that the pore structure of these mixes has been densified as evidenced by a reduction in intruded volume and a rise in BET surface area. Furthermore, both mixes had lower CO2-eq intensity per MPa as compared to control, which indicates their significant impact on producing green concretes through their reduced GWPs. Thus, this research shows that WSA alone or its blend with SF can be considered as a source of revenue for the concrete industry for developing high-performance and sustainable concretes.

RevDate: 2022-05-19

Bernstein AS (2021)

The medical response to climate change.

Med (New York, N.Y.), 2(4):361-365.

The growing mass of colorless and odorless greenhouse gases high in earth's atmosphere may be about as far away from a hospital bedside or clinic exam room as any concern imaginable. Despite this, the challenges of climate change have progressively moved nearer to the work of all those in health care. From sinister storms, fires, and heat waves that imperil our patients, facilities, and supplies to the outsized contribution of medical care to air pollution, the motivations and needs for a medical response to climate change are many and clear.

RevDate: 2022-05-19

Zhuang X, Hao Z, Singh VP, et al (2022)

Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(22)03118-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Drought is a costly natural hazard with far-reaching impacts on agriculture, ecosystem, water supply, and socio-economy. While propagating through the water cycle, drought evolves into different types and affects the natural system and human society. Despite much progress made in recent decades, a synthesis of the characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors of drought propagation is still lacking. We bridge this gap by reviewing the recent progress of drought propagation and discussing challenges and future directions. We first introduce drought propagation characteristics (e.g., response time scale, lag time), followed by different approaches, including statistical analysis and hydrological modeling. The recent progress in the propagation from meteorological drought to different types of drought (agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and ecological drought) is then synthesized, including the basic process, commonly used indicators, data sources, and main findings of drought propagation characteristics. Different controlling factors of drought propagations, including climatic (e.g., aridity, seasonality, and anomalies of meteorological variables), catchment properties (e.g., slope, elevation, land cover, aquifer, baseflow), and human activities (e.g., reservoir operation and water diversion, irrigation, and groundwater abstraction), are then summarized. Challenges in drought propagation include the discrepancy in drought indicators (and approaches) and difficulty in characterizing the full propagation process and isolating influencing factors. Future analysis of drought propagation should shift from single indicators to multiple indicators, from individual drivers to combined drivers, from uni-direction analysis to feedbacks, from hazards to impacts, and from stationary to nonstationary assumption. This review is expected to be useful for drought prediction and management across different regions under global warming.

RevDate: 2022-05-19

Bingley WJ, Tran A, Boyd CP, et al (2022)

A multiple needs framework for climate change anxiety interventions.

The American psychologist pii:2022-63406-001 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change anxiety is a growing problem for individual well-being the world over. However, psychological interventions to address climate change anxiety may have unintended effects on outcomes other than individual well-being, such as group cohesion and pro-environmental behavior. In order to address these complexities, we outline a multiple needs framework of climate change anxiety interventions, which can be used to analyze interventions in terms of their effects on individual, social, and environmental outcomes. We use this framework to contextualize a systematic review of the literature detailing the effects of climate change anxiety interventions. This analysis identifies interventions centered around problem-focused action, emotion management, and enhancing social connections as those which have beneficial effects on the widest range of outcomes. It also identifies interventions that may have detrimental effects on one or more outcomes. We identify gaps where more research is required, including research that assesses the effects of climate change anxiety interventions on individual, social, and environmental outcomes in concert. An interactive website summarizes these insights and presents the results of the systematic review in a way that is, accessible to a range of stakeholders. The multiple needs framework provides a way to conceptualize the effectiveness of climate change anxiety interventions beyond their impact on individual well-being, contributing to a more holistic understanding of the effects of this global phenomenon. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

RevDate: 2022-05-19

Rehák I, Fischer D, Kratochvíl L, et al (2022)

Origin and haplotype diversity of the northernmost population of Podarcistauricus (Squamata, Lacertidae): Do lizards respond to climate change and go north?.

Biodiversity data journal, 10:e82156 pii:82156.

The northernmost population of the Balkan wall lizards, Podarcistauricus (Pallas, 1814) was recently discovered in the Czech Republic. We studied genetic variability in a mitochondrial marker cytochrome b to shed light on the origin of this remote population. We detected three unique haplotypes, close to those occurring in the populations of Podarcistauricus from central/north Balkans and Hungary. Our data exclude the hypothesis of a single founder (a randomly or intentionally introduced pregnant female or her progeny) of the Czech population and indicate a native, autochthonous origin of the population or recent introduction/range expansion.

RevDate: 2022-05-18

Pickson RB, Gui P, Chen A, et al (2022)

Empirical analysis of rice and maize production under climate change in China.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

The past few decades of extreme drought and flooding caused by changing climate conditions have significantly affected agricultural production globally. This study focuses on two vital crops in China-maize and rice-and provides a comprehensive analysis of how these crops are affected by climate change-induced factors over the periods 1978Q1-2015Q4. Four key findings were obtained. First, using a nonparametric approach to estimate actual and observed trends of climatic variables, the results show a significant positive trend in average temperature from February to October. On the other hand, seasonal temperature increases during spring, summer, and autumn. Second, the results show no significant change in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns when examined over the study period. Third, using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find that while temperature and rainfall do not significantly support rice production in the long and short run, they play a substantial role in maize production in China. Finally, we find no significant difference in the results for rice when the quantile regression (QR) technique that controls for distributional asymmetry effects is employed. However, the impact of temperature on maize decreases at higher quantiles. Given the outcomes of our study, we argue that an advanced irrigation system is crucial and must be encouraged to minimize the effects of climate change on crop production.

RevDate: 2022-05-18

Semenza JC, Rocklöv J, KL Ebi (2022)

Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease.

Infectious diseases and therapy [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is adversely affecting the burden of infectious disease throughout the world, which is a health security threat. Climate-sensitive infectious disease includes vector-borne diseases such as malaria, whose transmission potential is expected to increase because of enhanced climatic suitability for the mosquito vector in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Climatic suitability for the mosquitoes that can carry dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is also likely to increase, facilitating further increases in the geographic range and longer transmission seasons, and raising concern for expansion of these diseases into temperate zones, particularly under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Early spring temperatures in 2018 seem to have contributed to the early onset and extensive West Nile virus outbreak in Europe, a pathogen expected to expand further beyond its current distribution, due to a warming climate. As for tick-borne diseases, climate change is projected to continue to contribute to the spread of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, particularly in North America and Europe. Schistosomiasis is a water-borne disease and public health concern in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia; climate change is anticipated to change its distribution, with both expansions and contractions expected. Other water-borne diseases that cause diarrheal diseases have declined significantly over the last decades owing to socioeconomic development and public health measures but changes in climate can reverse some of these positive developments. Weather and climate events, population movement, land use changes, urbanization, global trade, and other drivers can catalyze a succession of secondary events that can lead to a range of health impacts, including infectious disease outbreaks. These cascading risk pathways of causally connected events can result in large-scale outbreaks and affect society at large. We review climatic and other cascading drivers of infectious disease with projections under different climate change scenarios. Supplementary file1 (MP4 328467 KB).

RevDate: 2022-05-18

Nogrady B (2022)

Trees are dying much faster in northern Australia - climate change is probably to blame.

RevDate: 2022-05-18

Mao F, Du H, Zhou G, et al (2022)

Simulated net ecosystem productivity of subtropical forests and its response to climate change in Zhejiang Province, China.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(22)03090-X [Epub ahead of print].

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is an important index that indicates the carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. However, the effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal variability in NEP is still unclear. Using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon-budget (InTEC) model, this study takes the typical subtropical forests in the Zhejiang Province, China as an example, simulated the spatiotemporal patterns of forest NEP from 1979 to 2079 based on historically observed climate data (1979-2015) and data from three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We analyzed the responses of NEP at different forest age classes to the variation in meteorological factors. The NEP of Zhejiang's forests decreased from 1979 to 1985 and then increased from 1985 to 2015, with an annual increase rate of 9.66 g C·m-2·yr-1 and a cumulative NEP of 364.99 Tg·C. Forest NEP decreased from 2016 to 2079; however, the cumulative NEP continued to increase. The simulated cumulative NEP under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios was 750 Tg·C, 866 Tg·C, and 958 Tg·C, respectively, at the end of 2079. Partial correlation analysis between forest NEP at different age stages and meteorological factors showed that temperature is the key climatic factor that affects the carbon sequestration capacity of juvenile forests (1979-1999), while precipitation is the key climatic factor that affects middle-aged forests (2000-2015) and mature forests (2016-2079). Adopting appropriate management strategies for forests, such as selective cutting of different ages, is critical for the subtropical forests to adapt to climate change and maintain their high carbon sink capacity.

RevDate: 2022-05-18

Aylward B, Cunsolo A, Vriezen R, et al (2022)

Climate change is impacting mental health in North America: A systematic scoping review of the hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, risks and responses.

International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England), 34(1):34-50.

As climate change progresses, it is crucial that researchers and policymakers understand the ways in which climate-mental health risks arise through interactions between climate hazards, human exposure and social vulnerabilities across time and location. This scoping review systematically examined the nature, range and extent of published research in North America that investigates climate-mental health interactions. Five electronic databases were searched and two independent reviewers applied pre-determined criteria to assess the eligibility of articles identified in the search. Eighty-nine articles were determined to be relevant and underwent data extraction and analysis. The published literature reported on numerous exposure pathways through which acute and chronic climate hazards interacted with social vulnerabilities to increase mental health risks, including wellbeing, trauma, anxiety, depression, suicide and substance use. This review also highlights important gaps within the North American climate-mental health evidence base, including minimal research conducted in Mexico, as well as a lack of studies investigating climate-mental health adaptation strategies and projected future mental health risks. Further research should support effective preparation for and adaptation to the current and future mental health impacts of climate change. Such strategies could reduce health risks and the long-term mental health impacts that individuals and communities experience in a changing climate.

RevDate: 2022-05-18

Belova A, Gould CA, Munson K, et al (2022)

Projecting the Suicide Burden of Climate Change in the United States.

GeoHealth, 6(5):e2021GH000580 pii:GH2324.

We quantify and monetize changes in suicide incidence across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in response to increasing levels of warming. We develop an integrated health impact assessment model using binned and linear specifications of temperature-suicide relationship estimates from Mullins and White (2019), in combination with monthly age- and sex-specific baseline suicide incidence rates, projections of six climate models, and population projections at the conterminous U.S. county scale. We evaluate the difference in the annual number of suicides in the U.S. corresponding to 1-6°C of warming compared to 1986-2005 average temperatures (mean U.S. temperatures) and compute 2015 population attributable fractions (PAFs). We use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Value of a Statistical Life to estimate the economic value of avoiding these mortality impacts. Assuming the 2015 population size, warming of 1-6°C could result in an annual increase of 283-1,660 additional suicide cases, corresponding to a PAF of 0.7%-4.1%. The annual economic value of avoiding these impacts is $2 billion-$3 billion (2015 U.S. dollars, 3% discount rate, and 2015 income level). Estimates based on linear temperature-suicide relationship specifications are 7% larger than those based on binned temperature specifications. Accounting for displacement decreases estimates by 17%, while accounting for precipitation decreases estimates by 7%. Population growth between 2015 and the future warming degree arrival year increases estimates by 15%-38%. Further research is needed to quantify and monetize other climate-related mental health outcomes (e.g., anxiety and depression) and to characterize these risks in socially vulnerable populations.

RevDate: 2022-05-17

Klápště J, Telfer EJ, Dungey HS, et al (2022)

Chasing genetic correlation breakers to stimulate population resilience to climate change.

Scientific reports, 12(1):8238.

Global climate change introduces new combinations of environmental conditions, which is expected to increase stress on plants. This could affect many traits in multiple ways that are as yet unknown but will likely require the modification of existing genetic relationships among functional traits potentially involved in local adaptation. Theoretical evolutionary studies have determined that it is an advantage to have an excess of recombination events under heterogeneous environmental conditions. Our study, conducted on a population of radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don), was able to identify individuals that show high genetic recombination at genomic regions, which potentially include pleiotropic or collocating QTLs responsible for the studied traits, reaching a prediction accuracy of 0.80 in random cross-validation and 0.72 when whole family was removed from the training population and predicted. To identify these highly recombined individuals, a training population was constructed from correlation breakers, created through tandem selection of parents in the previous generation and their consequent mating. Although the correlation breakers showed lower observed heterogeneity possibly due to direct selection in both studied traits, the genomic regions with statistically significant differences in the linkage disequilibrium pattern showed higher level of heretozygosity, which has the effect of decomposing unfavourable genetic correlation. We propose undertaking selection of correlation breakers under current environmental conditions and using genomic predictions to increase the frequency of these 'recombined' individuals in future plantations, ensuring the resilience of planted forests to changing climates. The increased frequency of such individuals will decrease the strength of the population-level genetic correlations among traits, increasing the opportunity for new trait combinations to be developed in the future.

RevDate: 2022-05-17

Hoylman ZH, Bocinsky RK, KG Jencso (2022)

Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift.

Nature communications, 13(1):2715.

Despite the acceleration of climate change, erroneous assumptions of climate stationarity are still inculcated in the management of water resources in the United States (US). The US system for drought detection, which triggers billions of dollars in emergency resources, adheres to this assumption with preference towards 60-year (or longer) record lengths for drought characterization. Using observed data from 1,934 Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) sites across the US, we show that conclusions based on long climate records can substantially bias assessment of drought severity. Bias emerges by assuming that conditions from the early and mid 20th century are as likely to occur in today's climate. Numerical simulations reveal that drought assessment error is relatively low with limited climatology lengths (~30 year) and that error increases with longer record lengths where climate is changing rapidly. We assert that non-stationarity in climate must be accounted for in contemporary assessments to more accurately portray present drought risk.

RevDate: 2022-05-16

Aguirre-Gutiérrez J, Berenguer E, Oliveras Menor I, et al (2022)

Functional susceptibility of tropical forests to climate change.

Nature ecology & evolution [Epub ahead of print].

Tropical forests are some of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world, yet their functioning is threatened by anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. Global actions to conserve tropical forests could be enhanced by having local knowledge on the forests' functional diversity and functional redundancy as proxies for their capacity to respond to global environmental change. Here we create estimates of plant functional diversity and redundancy across the tropics by combining a dataset of 16 morphological, chemical and photosynthetic plant traits sampled from 2,461 individual trees from 74 sites distributed across four continents together with local climate data for the past half century. Our findings suggest a strong link between climate and functional diversity and redundancy with the three trait groups responding similarly across the tropics and climate gradient. We show that drier tropical forests are overall less functionally diverse than wetter forests and that functional redundancy declines with increasing soil water and vapour pressure deficits. Areas with high functional diversity and high functional redundancy tend to better maintain ecosystem functioning, such as aboveground biomass, after extreme weather events. Our predictions suggest that the lower functional diversity and lower functional redundancy of drier tropical forests, in comparison with wetter forests, may leave them more at risk of shifting towards alternative states in face of further declines in water availability across tropical regions.

RevDate: 2022-05-16

Eingrüber N, W Korres (2022)

Climate change simulation and trend analysis of extreme precipitation and floods in the mesoscale Rur catchment in western Germany until 2099 using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model).

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(22)02872-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Due to climate change and global warming, speed and intensity of the hydrological cycle will accelerate. In order to carry out regional risk assessment, integrated water resources management and flood protection, far reaching predictions and future scenarios of climate change effects on extreme precipitation and flooding are of particular relevance. In this study, trends in frequencies of extreme precipitation and floods until 2099 are analysed for the German Rur catchment, which is half located in highlands and half in lowlands and therefore has a high topographical and climatological contrast. To predict future trends, coupled modeling is performed based on NCEP reanalysis data and a General Circulation Model (GCM). Assuming HadCM3 future emission scenarios A2a and B2a, an empirical Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is developed and daily precipitation amounts are projected until 2099 by a stochastic weather generator. The generated precipitation data are used as an input for the ecohydrological Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model) to simulate daily water discharge until 2099. Statistical trend analyses are implemented based on three annual extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and the magnitudes of ten flood return periods derived with GEV and Gumbel extreme value distributions for 109 30-year moving periods using regression analyses and Mann-Kendall tendency tests to check for significant trends in the frequencies until 2099. As a result, it could be demonstrated for all EPIs that the frequency of extreme precipitation in the upper Rur catchment will significantly increase by +33% to +51% until 2099 compared to the base period 1961-1990, whereas mostly non-significant negative trends of extreme precipitation can be projected in the lowlands. For runoff, it was found that the magnitudes of the ten flood return periods will significantly increase by +31% for B2a to +36% for A2a until 2099 compared to the base period.

RevDate: 2022-05-16

Roggatz CC, Saha M, Blanchard S, et al (2022)

Becoming nose-blind-Climate change impacts on chemical communication.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Chemical communication via infochemicals plays a pivotal role in ecological interactions, allowing organisms to sense their environment, locate predators, food, habitats, or mates. A growing number of studies suggest that climate change-associated stressors can modify these chemically mediated interactions, causing info-disruption that scales up to the ecosystem level. However, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms is scarce. Evidenced by a range of examples, we illustrate in this opinion piece that climate change affects different realms in similar patterns, from molecular to ecosystem-wide levels. We assess the importance of different stressors for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems and propose a systematic approach to address highlighted knowledge gaps and cross-disciplinary research avenues.

RevDate: 2022-05-16

Schmidt DN, Pieraccini M, L Evans (2022)

Marine protected areas in the context of climate change: key challenges for coastal social-ecological systems.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 377(1854):20210131.

Climate and ecological emergencies play out acutely in coastal systems with devastating impacts on biodiversity, and the livelihoods of communities and their cultural values. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are one of the key management and regulatory tools against biodiversity loss, playing a role in strengthening bio-cultural diversity and sustainability of coastal social-ecological systems. What is unclear though is the effectiveness of static protections under climate change as species move. Next to ecological uncertainty, regulatory uncertainty may play a role in weakening marine conservation. We asked whether MPAs are ecologically effective now and can sustain or improve to be so in the future while facing key climate and regulatory uncertainties. MPAs can support the protection of cultural values and have an impact on activities of sea-users and the sustainability of social-ecological systems. As such, questions surrounding their legitimacy under a changing climate and increased uncertainty are pertinent. We argue that MPA governance must be cognisant of the interdependency between natural and human systems and their joint reaction to climate change impacts based on an integrated, co-developed, and interdisciplinary approach. Focusing on the UK as a case study, we highlight some of the challenges to achieve effective, adaptive and legitimate governance of MPAs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'.

RevDate: 2022-05-16

Kebke A, Samarra F, D Derous (2022)

Climate change and cetacean health: impacts and future directions.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 377(1854):20210249.

Climate change directly impacts the foraging opportunities of cetaceans (e.g. lower prey availability), leads to habitat loss, and forces cetaceans to move to other feeding grounds. The rise in ocean temperature, low prey availability and loss of habitat can have severe consequences for cetacean survival, particularly those species that are already threatened or those with a limited habitat range. In addition, it is predicted that the concentration of contaminants in aquatic environments will increase owing to Arctic meltwater and increased rainfall events leading to higher rates of land-based runoff in downstream coastal areas. These persistent and mobile contaminants can bioaccumulate in the ecosystem, and lead to ecotoxicity with potentially severe consequences on the reproductive organs, immune system and metabolism of marine mammals. There is a need to measure and assess the cumulative impact of multiple stressors, given that climate change, habitat alteration, low prey availability and contaminants do not act in isolation. Human-caused perturbations to cetacean foraging abilities are becoming a pervasive and prevalent threat to many cetacean species on top of climate change-associated stressors. We need to move to a greater understanding of how multiple stressors impact the metabolism of cetaceans and ultimately their population trajectory. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'.

RevDate: 2022-05-16

Elli EF, Ciampitti IA, Castellano MJ, et al (2022)

Climate Change and Management Impacts on Soybean N Fixation, Soil N Mineralization, N2O Emissions, and Seed Yield.

Frontiers in plant science, 13:849896.

Limited knowledge about how nitrogen (N) dynamics are affected by climate change, weather variability, and crop management is a major barrier to improving the productivity and environmental performance of soybean-based cropping systems. To fill this knowledge gap, we created a systems understanding of agroecosystem N dynamics and quantified the impact of controllable (management) and uncontrollable (weather, climate) factors on N fluxes and soybean yields. We performed a simulation experiment across 10 soybean production environments in the United States using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model and future climate projections from five global circulation models. Climate change (2020-2080) increased N mineralization (24%) and N2O emissions (19%) but decreased N fixation (32%), seed N (20%), and yields (19%). Soil and crop management practices altered N fluxes at a similar magnitude as climate change but in many different directions, revealing opportunities to improve soybean systems' performance. Among many practices explored, we identified two solutions with great potential: improved residue management (short-term) and water management (long-term). Inter-annual weather variability and management practices affected soybean yield less than N fluxes, which creates opportunities to manage N fluxes without compromising yields, especially in regions with adequate to excess soil moisture. This work provides actionable results (tradeoffs, synergies, directions) to inform decision-making for adapting crop management in a changing climate to improve soybean production systems.

RevDate: 2022-05-16

Burridge JD, Grondin A, V Vadez (2022)

Optimizing Crop Water Use for Drought and Climate Change Adaptation Requires a Multi-Scale Approach.

Frontiers in plant science, 13:824720.

Selection criteria that co-optimize water use efficiency and yield are needed to promote plant productivity in increasingly challenging and variable drought scenarios, particularly dryland cereals in the semi-arid tropics. Optimizing water use efficiency and yield fundamentally involves transpiration dynamics, where restriction of maximum transpiration rate helps to avoid early crop failure, while maximizing grain filling. Transpiration restriction can be regulated by multiple mechanisms and involves cross-organ coordination. This coordination involves complex feedbacks and feedforwards over time scales ranging from minutes to weeks, and from spatial scales ranging from cell membrane to crop canopy. Aquaporins have direct effect but various compensation and coordination pathways involve phenology, relative root and shoot growth, shoot architecture, root length distribution profile, as well as other architectural and anatomical aspects of plant form and function. We propose gravimetric phenotyping as an integrative, cross-scale solution to understand the dynamic, interwoven, and context-dependent coordination of transpiration regulation. The most fruitful breeding strategy is likely to be that which maintains focus on the phene of interest, namely, daily and season level transpiration dynamics. This direct selection approach is more precise than yield-based selection but sufficiently integrative to capture attenuating and complementary factors.

RevDate: 2022-05-16

Crameri NJ, JC Ellison (2022)

Atoll inland and coastal mangrove climate change vulnerability assessment.

Wetlands ecology and management pii:9878 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change threatens global mangroves, which are already among the world's most impacted ecosystems. Vulnerability components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were evaluated on mangroves of atoll settings on Jaluit Atoll, in the Marshall Islands, assessing spatial changes of mangrove cover 1945-2018/19, sea-level trends 1968-2019, and reviewing available information. Inland mangrove depressions occur on Jaluit, as well as coastal lagoon margin mangroves, and both were assessed using the same methods. Spatial analysis results showed both inland and coastal mangroves have increased in area. Inland mangroves on eight of Jaluit's islands mostly expanded after 1976 from 40 to 50 hectares, with progradation and tidal creek infill closing lagoon connections. Shoreline mangroves showed 88-100% of transects prograding 0.1-0.51 m year-1 and 0-11.5% of transects eroding 0-0.18 m year-1. Assessment of a combination of aerial/satellite images, literature and on-the-ground photos indicated that the mangroves are in healthy condition. Vulnerability assessment results showed both inland and coastal mangroves to have similar strengths and weaknesses in resilience, with intrinsic areas of vulnerability persisting during increased future sea level rise, limited sediment supply and extremely low elevations.

Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11273-022-09878-0.

RevDate: 2022-05-14

de Olanda Souza GH, Aparecido LEO, de Lima RF, et al (2022)

Agroclimatic Zoning for Bananas Under Climate Change in Brazil.

Journal of the science of food and agriculture [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses in plants and affects yield. Therefore, we sought to carry out a study on future changes in the agroclimatic conditions of banana cultivation in Brazil. The current agroclimatic zoning was carried out with data obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) related to mean air temperature, annual rainfall, and soil texture data in Brazil. The global climate model BCC-CSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model, version 1.1), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the period 2050 (2041-2060) and 2070 (2061-2080), obtained through the CHELSA V1.2 platform, was chosen for the climate projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Matrix images at a depth of 5-15 cm, obtained through the product of the SoilGrids system, were used for the texture data. The ArcGIS software version 10.8 was used to construct the maps.

RESULTS: Areas favorable to the crop plantation were classified as suitable when air temperature (TAIR) was between 20 and 29 °C, annual rainfall (RANNUAL) between 1,200 and 1,900 mm, and soil clay content (CSOIL) between 30 and 55%. Subsequently, the information was reclassified, summarizing the classes into preferential, recommended, little recommended, and not recommended. The current scenario shows a preferential class of 8.1%, recommended of 44.6%, little recommended of 47.1%, and not recommended of 0.1% for the Brazilian territory.

CONCLUSION: The results show no drastic changes in the total area regarding the classes, but there is a migration from these zones, that is, from tropical to subtropical and temperate regions. RCP 8.5 - 2070 (2061-2080) showed trends with negative impacts on arable areas for banana cultivation at the end of the century. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2022-05-14

Ishtiaq M, Maqbool M, Muzamil M, et al (2022)

Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 11(9): pii:plants11091180.

Climate change (CC) is a global threat to the agricultural system. Changing climatic conditions are causing variations in temperature range, rainfall timing, humidity percentage, soil structure, and composition of gases in environment. All these factors have a great influence on the phenological events in plants' life cycle. Alternation in phenological events, especially in crops, leads to either lower yield or crop failure. In light of respective statement, the present study is designed to evaluate the climatic impacts on two heat-resistant wheat varieties (Sialkot-2008 and Punjab-2018). During the study, impacts of CC on wheat phenology and annual yield were predicted considering six climatic factors: maximum temp, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil moisture content, and solar radiation using two quantitative approaches. First, a two-year field experimental plot was set up at five different sites of study-each plot a bisect of two sites. Phenological changes of both varieties were monitored with respect to climatic factors and changes were recorded in a scientific manner. Secondly, experimental results were compared with Global climate models (GMC) models with a baseline range of the past 40 years (1970-2010) and future fifty years (2019-2068) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 model analysis. Field experiment showed a (0.02) difference in maximum temperature, (0.04) in minimum temperature, (0.17) in humidity, and about (0.03) significant difference in soil moisture content during 2019-2021. Under these changing climatic parameters, a 0.21% difference was accounted in annual yield. Furthermore, the results were supported by GMC model analysis, which was analyzed by Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Results depicted that non-heat-resistant wheat varieties could cause up to a 6~13% reduction in yield during future 50 years (2019-2068)) compared with the last 40 years (1970-2010). A larger decline in wheat grain number relative to grain weight is a key reducer of wheat yield, under future climate change circumstances. Using heat-tolerant wheat varieties will not only assist to overcome this plethora but also provide a potential increase of up to 7% to 10% in indigenous environment. On the other hand, it was concluded that cultivating these heat-resistant varieties that are also ripening late culminates into enhanced thermal time chucks during the grain-filling period; hence, wheat yield will increase by 8% to 12%. In changing climatic conditions and varieties, 'Punjab-2018' will be the better choice for peasants and farm-land owners to obtain a better yield of wheat to cope with the necessities of food on the domestic and national level.

RevDate: 2022-05-14

Song C, Huang X, Les O, et al (2022)

The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Wheat and Maize Yields in the North China Plain.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(9): pii:ijerph19095707.

Climate change has significantly affected agricultural production. As one of China's most important agricultural production regions, the North China Plain (NCP) is subject to climate change. This paper examines the influence of climate change on the wheat and maize yields at household and village levels, using the multilevel model based on a large panel survey dataset in the NCP. The results show that: (i) Extreme weather events (drought and flood) would significantly reduce the wheat and maize yields. So, the governments should establish and improve the emergency service system of disaster warning and encourage farmers to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters. (ii) Over the past three decades, the NCP has experienced climate change that affects its grain production. Therefore, it is imperative to build the farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. (iii) Spatial variations in crop yield are significantly influenced by the household characteristics and the heterogeneity of village economic conditions. Therefore, in addition to promoting household production, it is necessary to strengthen and promote China's development of the rural collective economy, especially the construction of rural irrigation and drainage infrastructures.

RevDate: 2022-05-14

Sibitane ZE, Dube K, L Lekaota (2022)

Global Warming and Its Implications on Nature Tourism at Phinda Private Game Reserve, South Africa.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(9): pii:ijerph19095487.

The past decade recorded the highest number of high impact extreme weather events such as flooding, rainfall events, fires, droughts, and heatwaves amongst others. One of the key features and drivers of extreme weather events has been global warming, with record temperatures recorded globally. The World Meteorological Organization indicated that the 2010-2020 decade was one of the warmest on record. Continued global warming triggers a chain of positive feedback with far-reaching adverse implications on the environment and socio-economic activities. The tourism industry fears that increased global warming would result in severe challenges for the sector. The challenges include species extinction, disruption of tourism aviation, and several tourism activities. Given the extent of climate variability and change, this study examines the impacts of rising temperatures on tourism operations at Phinda Private Game Reserve in South Africa. The study adopts a mixed-method approach that uses secondary, archival, and primary data collected through interviews and field observations to investigate the impacts. Data analysis was done using XLSTAT and Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis to analyse climate trends, while content and thematic analyses were used to analyse primary data findings. The study found that increasing temperature is challenging for tourists and tourism employees as it affects productivity, sleeping patterns, tourism operations, and infrastructure. High temperatures are a considerable threat to water availability and animal sightings, adversely affecting the game drive experience. Increased heatwaves resulted in bird mortality and hatching mortality for turtles; this is a significant conservation challenge. The study recommends that heat stress be treated as a health and safety issue to protect tourists and employees.

RevDate: 2022-05-14

Wewerinke-Singh M, C Doebbler (2022)

Protecting Human Health from Climate Change: Legal Obligations and Avenues of Redress under International Law.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(9): pii:ijerph19095386.

In this contribution, we explore how human health can be protected from climate change and its adverse effects by reliance on States' obligations under international law. We achieved this by reviewing the principal legal instruments that establish the right to health, as well as those that recognize that climate change has an adverse impact on health (Part II). We then examine the means of redress that may be available to those whose human right to health has been interfered with or violated because of climate change (Part III). Finally, we draw some conclusions as to the current effectiveness and future direction of these developments.

RevDate: 2022-05-14

Huang J, Yang JZ, H Chu (2022)

Framing Climate Change Impacts as Moral Violations: The Pathway of Perceived Message Credibility.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(9): pii:ijerph19095210.

Climate change has been increasingly discussed in moral terms in public discourse. Despite the growing body of research on the effectiveness of moral frames in bridging the ideological divide, few studies have examined the role that perceived credibility, an important element of any persuasive appeal, plays in facilitating the framing effect. With the objective of further understanding how moral frames may engage individuals with different ideologies in climate change and refining climate change messaging strategies, two experimental surveys were conducted to examine the effects of moral violation frames on climate engagement. Specifically, a moderated mediation model was tested. The model posits that message credibility mediates the relationship between moral frames and policy support, as well as the relationship between moral frames and behavior intention. Moreover, political ideology moderated the indirect effects of message credibility. Based on moral foundations theory, seven messages were designed to activate individualizing and binding moral foundations. The results indicated that credibility consistently mediated the effects of the moral violation frame on climate engagement and that liberal-leaning individuals were more likely to perceive an individualizing frame as more credible than a binding frame. However, this difference was smaller among conservative-leaning individuals, with evidence for this moderated mediation model found only for policy support among college students. This study suggests that credibility is key for effective moral violations arguments of climate change.

RevDate: 2022-05-14

Lim NO, Hwang J, Lee SJ, et al (2022)

Spatialization and Prediction of Seasonal NO2 Pollution Due to Climate Change in the Korean Capital Area through Land Use Regression Modeling.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(9): pii:ijerph19095111.

Urbanization is causing an increase in air pollution leading to serious health issues. However, even though the necessity of its regulation is acknowledged, there are relatively few monitoring sites in the capital metropolitan city of the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, a significant relationship between air pollution and climate variables is expected, thus the prediction of air pollution under climate change should be carefully attended. This study aims to predict and spatialize present and future NO2 distribution by using existing monitoring sites to overcome deficiency in monitoring. Prediction was conducted through seasonal Land use regression modeling using variables correlated with NO2 concentration. Variables were selected through two correlation analyses and future pollution was predicted under HadGEM-AO RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Our results showed a relatively high NO2 concentration in winter in both present and future predictions, resulting from elevated use of fossil fuels in boilers, and also showed increments of NO2 pollution due to climate change. The results of this study could strengthen existing air pollution management strategies and mitigation measures for planning concerning future climate change, supporting proper management and control of air pollution.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Wang X, Juma S, Li W, et al (2022)

Potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Infectious diseases of poverty, 11(1):52.

BACKGROUND: Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium. The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B. globosus in China. Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission. This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

METHODS: We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B. globosus eggs, juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures (ET50). We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature (AT). The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July, the coldest and hottest months in China, respectively, were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system (GIS) using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B. globosus in southern China based on temperature.

RESULTS: The effective minimum temperature (ET50min) for eggs, juveniles, adult snails and spawning were 8.5, 7.0, 7.0, 14.9 °C, respectively, with the corresponding maximum values (ET50max) of 36.6, 40.5, 40.2 and 38.1 °C. The AT was calculated at 712.1 ± 64.9 °C·d. In 1955, the potential B. globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province. Since then, this line has gradually moved northward.

CONCLUSIONS: Annual regeneration of B. globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China, and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019. Thus, there is a potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Kang H, Sridhar V, SA Ali (2022)

Climate change impacts on conventional and flash droughts in the Mekong River Basin.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(22)02942-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Recent drought events in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) have resulted in devastating environmental and economic losses, and climate change and human-induced alterations have exacerbated drought conditions. Using hydrologic models and multiple climate change scenarios, this study quantified the future climate change impacts on conventional and flash drought conditions in the MRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models were applied to estimate long-term drought indices for conventional and flash drought conditions over historical and future periods (1966-2099), using two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5), and four climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For the conventional drought assessment, monthly scale drought indices were estimated, and pentad-scale (5 days) drought indices were computed for the flash drought evaluations. There were overall increases in droughts from the SWAT model for the conventional drought conditions and overall decreases from the VIC model. For the flash drought conditions, the SWAT-driven drought indices showed overall increases in drought occurrences (up to 165%). On the contrary, the VIC-driven drought indices presented decreases in drought occurrences (up to -44%). The conventional and flash drought evaluations differ between these models as they partition the water budget, specifically soil moisture differently. We conclude that the proposed framework, which includes hydrologic models, various emission scenarios, and projections, allows us to assess the various perspectives on drought conditions. Basin countries have differential impacts, so targeted future adaptation strategy is required.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Agathokleous E, De Marco A, Paoletti E, et al (2022)

Air Pollution and Climate Change threats to Plant Ecosystems.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

de Guevara ML, FT Maestre (2022)

Ecology and responses to climate change of biocrust-forming mosses in drylands.

Journal of experimental botany pii:6584838 [Epub ahead of print].

The interest in understanding the role of biocrusts as ecosystem engineers in drylands has substantially increased during the last two decades. Mosses are a major biocrust component that dominate its late successional stages. In general, their impacts on most ecosystem functions are greater than those of early-stage biocrust constituents. However, it is common to find contradictory results regarding how moss interactions with different biotic and abiotic factors affect ecosystem processes. This review aims to: i) describe the adaptations and environmental constraints of biocrust-forming mosses in drylands, ii) identify their primary ecological roles in these ecosystems, and iii) synthesise their responses to climate change. Our review emphasises the importance of interactions between specific functional traits of mosses (e.g., height, radiation reflectance, morphology, shoot densities) with both the environment (e.g., climate, topography and soil properties) and other organisms to understand their ecological roles and responses to climate change. It also highlights key areas that we should research in the future to fulfil essential gaps in our understanding of the ecology and responses to ongoing climate change of biocrust-forming mosses. These include a better understanding of intra- and interspecific interactions and mechanisms driving mosses' carbon balance of during desiccation/rehydration cycles.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Cassidy VA, Asaro C, EP McCarty (2022)

Management Implications for the Nantucket Pine Tip Moth From Temperature-Induced Shifts in Phenology and Voltinism Attributed to Climate Change.

Journal of economic entomology pii:6584713 [Epub ahead of print].

Forest insect pest phenology and infestation pressure may shift as temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, resulting in greater challenges for sustainable forest management . The Nantucket pine tip moth (NPTM) (Rhyacionia frustrana Comstock) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a native forest regeneration pest in the southeastern U.S. with multiple generations per year. Changes in NPTM voltinism may result from temperature-induced shifts in NPTM phenology. Degree-day models have been used to develop optimal spray dates (OSDs) for NPTM. The 2000 Spray Timing Model (STM), based on temperature data from 1960 to 2000, provided generation-specific 5-d OSDs to effectively time applications of contact insecticides. An updated degree-day model, the 2019 STM, is based on temperature data from 2000 to 2019 and was used to detect changes in voltinism as well as shifts in phenology and OSDs. Based on the model, increased voltinism occurred at 6 of the 28 study locations (21%). Changes in voltinism occurred in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of Georgia, U.S., with shifts from three to four or four to five generations a year, depending on location. The OSDs from the 2019 STM were compared to the 2000 STM OSDs. Over half (57%) of the OSDs differed by 5-15 d, with the majority (66%) resulting in earlier spray dates. The 2019 STM will help growers adapt NPTM control tactics to temperature-induced phenology shifts. NPTM serves as an example of temperature-induced changes attributed to climate change in a forest insect pest with important implications to forest management.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Kharwadkar S, Attanayake V, Duncan J, et al (2022)

The impact of climate change on the risk factors for tuberculosis: A systematic review.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(22)00763-0 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) continues to pose a major public health risk in many countries. The current incidence of disease exceeds guidelines proposed by the World Health Organisation and United Nations. Whilst the relationship between climate change and TB has surfaced in recent literature, it remains neglected in global agendas. There is a need to acknowledge TB as a climate-sensitive disease to facilitate its eradication.

OBJECTIVE: To review epidemiological and prediction model studies that explore how climate change may affect the risk factors for TB, as outlined in the Global Tuberculosis Report 2021: HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, undernutrition, overcrowding, poverty, and indoor air pollution.

METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases to identify studies examining the association between climate variables and the risk factors for TB. Each study that satisfied the inclusion criteria was assessed for quality and ethics. Studies then underwent vote-counting and were categorised based on whether an association was found.

RESULTS: 53 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in our review. Vote-counting revealed that two out of two studies found a positive association between the examined climate change proxy and HIV, nine out of twelve studies for diabetes, eight out of seventeen studies for undernutrition, four out of five studies for overcrowding, twelve out of fifteen studies for poverty and one out of three studies for indoor air pollution.

DISCUSSION: We found evidence supporting a positive association between climate change and each of the discussed risk factors for TB, excluding indoor air pollution. Our findings suggest that climate change is likely to affect the susceptibility of individuals to TB by increasing the prevalence of its underlying risk factors, particularly in developing countries. This is an evolving field of research that requires further attention in the scientific community.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Kaminski I (2022)

How scientists are helping sue over climate change.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 6(5):e386-e387.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Laumann F, von Kügelgen J, Kanashiro Uehara TH, et al (2022)

Complex interlinkages, key objectives, and nexuses among the Sustainable Development Goals and climate change: a network analysis.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 6(5):e422-e430.

BACKGROUND: Global sustainability is an enmeshed system of complex socioeconomic, climatological, and ecological interactions. The numerous objectives of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement have various levels of interdependence, making it difficult to ascertain the influence of changes to particular indicators across the whole system. In this analysis, we aimed to detect and rank the complex interlinkages between objectives of sustainability agendas.

METHODS: We developed a method to find interlinkages among the 17 SDGs and climate change, including non-linear and non-monotonic dependences. We used time series of indicators defined by the World Bank, consisting of 400 indicators that measure progress towards the 17 SDGs and an 18th variable (annual average temperatures), representing progress in the response to the climate crisis, from 2000 to 2019. This method detects significant dependencies among the time evolution of the objectives by using partial distance correlations, a non-linear measure of conditional dependence that also discounts spurious correlations originating from lurking variables. We then used a network representation to identify the most important objectives (using network centrality) and to obtain nexuses of objectives (defined as highly interconnected clusters in the network).

FINDINGS: Using temporal data from 181 countries spanning 20 years, we analysed dependencies among SDGs and climate for 35 country groupings based on region, development, and income level. The observed significant interlinkages, central objectives, and nexuses identified varied greatly across country groupings; however, SDG 17 (partnerships for the goals) and climate change ranked as highly important across many country groupings. Temperature rise was strongly linked to urbanisation, air pollution, and slum expansion (SDG 11), especially in country groupings likely to be worst affected by climate breakdown, such as Africa. In several country groupings composed of developing nations, we observed a consistent nexus of strongly interconnected objectives formed by SDG 1 (poverty reduction), SDG 4 (education), and SDG 8 (economic growth), sometimes incorporating SDG 5 (gender equality), and SDG 16 (peace and justice).

INTERPRETATION: The differences across groupings emphasise the need to define goals in accordance with local circumstances and priorities. Our analysis highlights global partnerships (SDG 17) as a pivot in global sustainability efforts, which have been strongly linked to economic growth (SDG 8). However, if economic growth and trade expansion were repositioned as a means instead of an end goal of development, our analysis showed that education (SDG 4) and poverty reduction (SDG 1) become more central, thus suggesting that these could be prioritised in global partnerships. Urban livelihoods (SDG 11) were also flagged as important to avoid replicating unsustainable patterns of the past.

FUNDING: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK Research and Innovation.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Hernandez J, Meisner J, Bardosh K, et al (2022)

Prevent pandemics and halt climate change? Strengthen land rights for Indigenous peoples.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 6(5):e381-e382.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Zhao Y, Chang H, Liu X, et al (2022)

Climate Change Impact of the Development in Household Waste Management in China.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

The potential climate change impacts of the development in Chinese household waste management, with less landfilling, more incineration with energy recovery, and source-separated food waste treated in biorefineries, were assessed through a life cycle assessment. When the waste management system interacts with a fossil-based energy system, landfilling produces a load of 144 kg CO2-eq/ton wet waste, while incineration shows a saving of 36 kg CO2-eq/ton wet waste. The introduction of food waste source separation lowers climate change impacts by an additional 33 kg CO2-eq/ton at a 60% sorting efficiency. As the Chinese energy system lowers its climate change impact over the next 30 years, energy recovery from waste treatment will change its relative contribution to climate change. In nonfossil energy systems, landfilling is estimated to have a climate change load of 180-240 kg CO2-eq/ton wet waste, while incineration, including combinations with the source-separation of food waste, will have a load of 310-540 kg CO2-eq/ton wet waste. These large intervals are due to waste composition uncertainty. However, considering a 20 year CH4 characterization factor representing a shorter time perspective, the impacts from landfilling are more dramatic due to the large methane release. This significant climate change impact calls for an increased focus on the developments in Chinese household waste management. The key issues identified may also apply to other countries.

RevDate: 2022-05-13

Masao CA, Igoli J, ET Liwenga (2022)

Relevance of Neglected and Underutilized Plants for Climate Change Adaptation & Conservation Implications in Semi-arid Regions of Tanzania.

Environmental management [Epub ahead of print].

Neglected and underutilized plant species (NUS) in Tanzania are maintained by socio-cultural preferences. However, a majority remains inadequately characterized and neglected by research and conservation initiatives. Over long time ago, the NUS have been part of the major component in the food systems of local communities especially in the dryland areas to overcome challenges brought about by uncertain climatic conditions. This study documents the NUS diversity and indigenous knowledge on their availability, agronomic and cultural practices in the Semi-arid zones of Tanzania to verify their economic potentials and promote their sustainable utilization for climate change adaptation as well as natural resources conservation. The study involved field plant identification, quantification and participatory rural appraisals (PRAs). The results indicate that the study regions have very rich diversity of NUS contributing significantly to the people's adaptation to drought conditions and food shortages in the areas. The NUS in the studied regions had varied uses including food and medicine. A majority of the consulted farmers in the study area indicated that the NUS utilized in the areas were either minimally cultivated on farms, freely obtained from the wild or grew as weeds in the farmlands. Despite the potentials for NUS in contributing to climate change adaptation in the areas, so far there have been no efforts geared towards their sustainable utilization and conservation. It is observed that promotion of NUS through improved packaging and marketing could contribute to the economy of the local people who have access to NUS in the area and therefore enhance resilience of semi-arid communities.

RevDate: 2022-05-11

Staples TL, Kiessling W, JM Pandolfi (2022)

Emergence patterns of locally novel plant communities driven by past climate change and modern anthropogenic impacts.

Anthropogenic disturbance and climate change can result in dramatic increases in the emergence of new, ecologically novel, communities of organisms. We used a standardised framework to detect local novel communities in 2135 pollen time series over the last 25,000 years. Eight thousand years of post-glacial warming coincided with a threefold increase in local novel community emergence relative to glacial estimates. Novel communities emerged predominantly at high latitudes and were linked to global and local temperature change across multi-millennial time intervals. In contrast, emergence of locally novel communities in the last 200 years, although already on par with glacial retreat estimates, occurred at midlatitudes and near high human population densities. Anthropogenic warming does not appear to be strongly associated with modern local novel communities, but may drive widespread emergence in the future, with legacy effects for millennia after warming abates.

RevDate: 2022-05-11

James A (2022)

Urgent action needed to address mental health risks of climate change.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 377:o1180.

RevDate: 2022-05-11

Vassari-Pereira D, Valverde MC, GF Asmus (2022)

[Impact of climate change and air quality on hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in municipalities in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), Brazil].

Ciencia & saude coletiva, 27(5):2023-2034.

The scope of this study was to analyze the possible impacts of climate change on respiratory health in the municipalities of Santo André and São Caetano do Sul. Historical meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure), air quality data (concentrations of PM10 and O3) and respiratory health data (incidence rates of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases - IRHRD) were related through statistical models of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Meteorological data from future climate projections (2019-2099) from three different climate models (one global and two regionalized) in two emission scenarios were applied to the MLR models. The results showed that the IRHRD will suffer an increase of up to 10% in relation to the current levels for São Caetano do Sul in the 2070-2099 period. In Santo André, projections indicated a reduction of up to 26% in IRHRD. The most important variable in the MLR models for Santo André was temperature (-2,15x), indicating an inverse relationship between global warming and an increase in IRHRD, while in São Caetano the atmospheric pressure had the greatest weight (2.44x). For future studies, the inclusion of future projections of PM10 concentrations is recommended.

RevDate: 2022-05-11

Heinzerling L (2022)

Climate Change in the Supreme Court.

The New England journal of medicine [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2022-05-11

The Lancet Microbe (2021)

Climate change: fires, floods, and infectious diseases.

The Lancet. Microbe, 2(9):e415.

RevDate: 2022-05-11

Malerba D (2022)

The Effects of Social Protection and Social Cohesion on the Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: What Do We (Not) Know in the Context of Low- and Middle-Income Countries?.

The European journal of development research pii:537 [Epub ahead of print].

Significant climate change mitigation policies are urgently needed to achieve emissions reduction targets. This paper shows that social protection and social cohesion play a critical role in making climate policies more acceptable to citizens by summarizing existing streams of research focusing on industrialized countries. Further, the empirical analysis explores whether these relationships also hold for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which are increasingly implementing climate change mitigation policies. The results show that vertical and horizontal trust increase acceptability in all countries. However, preferences for social protection have a positive effect only in industrialized ones. This may suggest a contrast between social and environmental goals in LMICs, where social goals are prioritized. The analysis also revealed a significant interaction between social cohesion and social protection. The paper concludes by discussing the existing research gap as to LMICs and outlines policy options to overcome the conflict between social and environmental goals.

RevDate: 2022-05-11

Jahn S, E Hertig (2022)

Using Clustering, Statistical Modeling, and Climate Change Projections to Analyze Recent and Future Region-Specific Compound Ozone and Temperature Burden Over Europe.

GeoHealth, 6(4):e2021GH000561 pii:GH2319.

High ground-level ozone concentrations and high air temperatures present two health-relevant natural hazards. The most severe health outcomes are generally associated with concurrent elevated levels of both variables, representing so-called compound ozone and temperature (o-t-) events. These o-t-events, their relationship with identified main meteorological and synoptic drivers, as well as ozone and temperature levels themselves and the linkage between both variables, vary temporally and with the location of sites. Due to the serious health burden and its spatiotemporal variations, the analysis of o-t-events across the European domain represents the focus of the current work. The main objective is to model and project present and future o-t-events, taking region-specific differences into account. Thus, a division of the European domain into six o-t-regions with homogeneous, similar ground-level ozone and temperature characteristics and patterns built the basis of the study. In order to assess region-specific main meteorological and synoptic drivers of o-t-events, statistical downscaling models were developed for selected representative stations per o-t-region. Statistical climate change projections for all central European o-t-regions were generated to assess potential frequency shifts of o-t-events until the end of the 21st century. The output of eight Earth System Models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project considering SSP245 and SSP370 scenario assumptions was applied. By comparing midcentury (2041-2060) and late century (2081-2100) time slice differences with respect to a historical base period (1995-2014), substantial increases of the health-relevant compound o-t-events were projected across all central European regions.

RevDate: 2022-05-10

Mukherji A (2022)

Climate change: put water at the heart of solutions.

Nature, 605(7909):195.

RevDate: 2022-05-10

Zhang Z, C Lu (2022)

Assessing influences of climate change on highland barley productivity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1978-2017.

Scientific reports, 12(1):7625.

Grain production is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change globally. Highland barley (HB) is the most important cereal crop in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), so assessing HB productivity and its response to climate change could help to understand the capacity of grain production and food security. This study simulated the potential yield of HB annually at 72 meteorological stations for 1978-2017 using the WOFOST model, and then analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of HB potential yield and climatic factors in the growing season. Further, the influence of climate change on HB potential yield was explored in different temperature zones (TZ). Results indicate that the annual average of HB potential yield ranged from 3.5 to 8.1 t/ha in the QTP, and it was averaged at 6.5 t/ha in TZ-3, higher than other zones. From 1978 to 2017, HB potential yield for the whole QTP decreased slightly by 2.1 kg/ha per year, and its change rates were 23.9, 10.1, - 15.9, - 23.8 and - 16.7 kg/ha/year from TZ-1 to TZ-5 (p < 0.05), respectively. In all zones, average (Tave), maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a significantly warming trend (p < 0.01), and Tmin increased by 0.53, 0.45, 0.44, 0.40 and 0.69 °C per decade, higher than that of Tave and Tmax. However, temperature diurnal range (TDR) and radiation (RA) showed a downward trend, and their decrease rates were far higher in TZ-5 and TZ-3. In TZ-1, ΔTDR was the critical factor to the change in HB potential yield, which would increase by 420.30 kg/ha for 1 °C increase of ΔTDR (p < 0.01). From TZ-2 to TZ-5, ΔRA was the critical factor, but the influence amplitude in terms of the elastic coefficient, decreased from 4.08 to 0.99 (p < 0.01). In addition, other factors such as ΔTmax in TZ-3 and ΔTmin in TZ-4 and TZ-5 also had an important influence on the potential yield. To improve the HB productivity in the QTP, suitable varieties should be developed and introduced to adapt the climate warming in different temperature zones. In addition, efforts are needed to adjust the strategies of fertilizers and irrigation applications.

RevDate: 2022-05-10

Ortega-Guzmán L, Rojas-Soto O, Santiago-Alarcon D, et al (2022)

Climate predictors and climate change projections for avian haemosporidian prevalence in Mexico.

Parasitology pii:S0031182022000683 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2022-05-09

Wu C, Sitch S, Huntingford C, et al (2022)

Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(20):e2101186119.

SignificanceFire is an increasing climate-driven threat to humans. While human demography can strongly modulate fire ignition rates or fire suppression, changes in CO2 released by fires feed back to climate. We show that human demography could reduce future fire activity, which would in turn attenuate global warming via an enhanced land carbon sink. This mitigation is strongest in a low-CO2-emission world, corresponding to ∼5 to 10 y of global CO2 emissions at today's levels by 2100. We highlight the strong role of human demography in global fire reduction and the potential for climate change mitigation by enhanced land carbon sequestration. We also note possible trade-offs, including loss of biodiversity in fire-dependent ecosystems and increases in severe fire events.

RevDate: 2022-05-09

Bessagnet B, Allemand N, Putaud JP, et al (2022)

Emissions of Carbonaceous Particulate Matter and Ultrafine Particles from Vehicles-A Scientific Review in a Cross-Cutting Context of Air Pollution and Climate Change.

Applied sciences (Basel, Switzerland), 12(7):1-52.

Airborne particulate matter (PM) is a pollutant of concern not only because of its adverse effects on human health but also on visibility and the radiative budget of the atmosphere. PM can be considered as a sum of solid/liquid species covering a wide range of particle sizes with diverse chemical composition. Organic aerosols may be emitted (primary organic aerosols, POA), or formed in the atmosphere following reaction of volatile organic compounds (secondary organic aerosols, SOA), but some of these compounds may partition between the gas and aerosol phases depending upon ambient conditions. This review focuses on carbonaceous PM and gaseous precursors emitted by road traffic, including ultrafine particles (UFP) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are clearly linked to the evolution and formation of carbonaceous species. Clearly, the solid fraction of PM has been reduced during the last two decades, with the implementation of after-treatment systems abating approximately 99% of primary solid particle mass concentrations. However, the role of brown carbon and its radiative effect on climate and the generation of ultrafine particles by nucleation of organic vapour during the dilution of the exhaust remain unclear phenomena and will need further investigation. The increasing role of gasoline vehicles on carbonaceous particle emissions and formation is also highlighted, particularly through the chemical and thermodynamic evolution of organic gases and their propensity to produce particles. The remaining carbon-containing particles from brakes, tyres and road wear will still be a problem even in a future of full electrification of the vehicle fleet. Some key conclusions and recommendations are also proposed to support the decision makers in view of the next regulations on vehicle emissions worldwide.

RevDate: 2022-05-09

Alkishe A, AT Peterson (2022)

Climate change influences on the geographic distributional potential of the spotted fever vectors Amblyomma maculatum and Dermacentor andersoni.

PeerJ, 10:e13279 pii:13279.

Amblyomma maculatum (Gulf Coast tick), and Dermacentor andersoni (Rocky Mountain wood tick) are two North American ticks that transmit spotted fevers associated Rickettsia. Amblyomma maculatum transmits Rickettsia parkeri and Francisella tularensis, while D. andersoni transmits R. rickettsii, Anaplasma marginale, Coltivirus (Colorado tick fever virus), and F. tularensis. Increases in temperature causes mild winters and more extreme dry periods during summers, which will affect tick populations in unknown ways. Here, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential geographic distributions of these two medically important vector species in North America under current condition and then transfer those models to the future under different future climate scenarios with special interest in highlighting new potential expansion areas. Current model predictions for A. maculatum showed suitable areas across the southern and Midwest United States, and east coast, western and southern Mexico. For D. andersoni, our models showed broad suitable areas across northwestern United States. New potential for range expansions was anticipated for both tick species northward in response to climate change, extending across the Midwest and New England for A. maculatum, and still farther north into Canada for D. andersoni.

RevDate: 2022-05-08

Tournebize R, Borner L, Manel S, et al (2022)

Ecological and genomic vulnerability to climate change across native populations of Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora).

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The assessment of population vulnerability under climate change is crucial for planning conservation as well as for ensuring food security. Coffea canephora is, in its native habitat, an understorey tree that is mainly distributed in the lowland rainforests of tropical Africa. Also known as Robusta, its commercial value constitutes a significant revenue for many human populations in tropical countries. Comparing ecological and genomic vulnerabilities within the species' native range can provide valuable insights about habitat loss and the species' adaptive potential, allowing to identify genotypes that may act as a resource for varietal improvement. By applying species distribution models, we assessed ecological vulnerability as the decrease in climatic suitability under future climatic conditions from 492 occurrences. We then quantified genomic vulnerability (or risk of maladaptation) as the allelic composition change required to keep pace with predicted climate change. Genomic vulnerability was estimated from genomic environmental correlations throughout the native range. Suitable habitat was predicted to diminish to half its size by 2050, with populations near coastlines and around the Congo River being the most vulnerable. Whole-genome sequencing revealed 165 candidate SNPs associated with climatic adaptation in C. canephora, which were located in genes involved in plant response to biotic and abiotic stressors. Genomic vulnerability was higher for populations in West Africa and in the region at the border between DRC and Uganda. Despite an overall low correlation between genomic and ecological vulnerability at broad scale, these two components of vulnerability overlap spatially in ways that may become damaging. Genomic vulnerability was estimated to be 23% higher in populations where habitat will be lost in 2050 compared to regions where habitat will remain suitable. These results highlight how ecological and genomic vulnerabilities are relevant when planning on how to cope with climate change regarding an economically important species.

RevDate: 2022-05-08

Ashrafzadeh MR, Khosravi R, Mohammadi A, et al (2022)

Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(22)02850-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is one of the major challenges to the current conservation of biodiversity. Here, by using the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in the southernmost limit of its global distribution as a model species, we assessed the impact of climate change on the species distribution in western Iran. The mountainous forests of Iran are inhabited by small and isolated populations of brown bears that are prone to extinction in the near future. We modeled the potential impact of climate change on brown bear distribution and habitat connectivity by the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of two general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1-1 and MRI-CGCM3. Our projections revealed that the current species' range, which encompasses 6749.8 km2 (40.8%) of the landscape, will decline by 10% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 45% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1). About 1850 km2 (27.4%) of the current range is covered by a network of conservation (CAs) and no-hunting (NHAs) areas which are predicted to decline by 0.64% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 15.56% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1) due to climate change. The loss of suitable habitats falling within the network of CAs and NHAs is a conservation challenge for brown bears because it may lead to bears moving outside the CAs and NHAs and result in subsequent increases in the levels of bear-human conflict. Thus, re-evaluation of the network of CAs and NHAs, establishing more protected areas in suitable landscapes, and conserving vital linkages between habitat patches under future climate change scenarios are crucial strategies to conserve and manage endangered populations of the brown bear.

RevDate: 2022-05-08

Lopes HS, Remoaldo PC, Ribeiro V, et al (2022)

Pathways for adapting tourism to climate change in an urban destination - Evidences based on thermal conditions for the Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal).

Journal of environmental management, 315:115161 pii:S0301-4797(22)00734-4 [Epub ahead of print].

The narrative of sustainable tourism transition in a context of adaptation to climate change is very relevant internationally. The availability and sharing of knowledge and information is a basic requirement for the successful planning of the tourism sector regarding this phenomenon. Planning adaptation in the urban tourism sector is widely regarded as a collectively-based process. However, collaborative planning is far from being the standard. This study reports the results of a Modified Delphi Approach (MDA) among experts about the future of urban tourism in a context of adaptation to climate change in Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal), considering the outdoor thermal conditions perspective. Using an expert panel, the study gathered their opinions to analyze the degrees of responsibility of the main sectorial entities at different territorial levels, the conditions of action in the transformation agenda and the measures to be implemented in the adaptation and mitigation process - according to priority and time horizon. Two rounds were carried out to apply the methodology between January and April 2021. The first questionnaire had the participation of 47 professionals. 34 out of the 47 professionals of the 1st round participated in the second questionnaire. The evidence from different stakeholders demonstrates that there is an ambiguous process of understanding the problem, information needs, and a weak interaction between actors - resources - tasks. The effectiveness and efficiency of collaborative planning and outlined goals by 2050 for adaptation of urban tourism sector to climate change can be hampered. Experts consider the creation of structural (tangible) measures to be fundamental. Among other results, it was found that most participants consider that the intervention is dependent on the guidelines issued by the government and municipal councils when it comes to defining a proposal for adapting the urban tourism sector to climate change. Despite this, the options for more sustainable practices must be based on three axes: (i) solutions based on the energy sector in the hotel industry (e.g., energy certification, prioritization of the use of renewable energy); (ii) improvement and expansion of green infrastructure for tourist enjoyment [e.g., creation of green areas (small additional pockets), namely in the center of Porto; and pedestrianization of central areas of the city] and (iii) network participation through the collaboration of various stakeholders with relevance in tourism and urban planning.

RevDate: 2022-05-07

Lincoln S, Andrews B, Birchenough SNR, et al (2022)

Marine litter and climate change: Inextricably connected threats to the world's oceans.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(22)02805-4 [Epub ahead of print].

The global issues of climate change and marine litter are interlinked and understanding these connections are key to managing their combined risks to marine biodiversity and ultimately society. For example, fossil fuel-based plastics cause direct emissions of greenhouse gases and therefore are an important contributing factor to climate change, while other impacts of plastics can manifest as alterations in key species and habitats in coastal and marine environments. Marine litter is acknowledged as a threat multiplier that acts with other stressors such as climate change to cause far greater damage than if they occurred in isolation. On the other hand, while climate change can lead to increased inputs of litter into the marine environment, the presence of marine litter can also undermine the climate resilience of marine ecosystems. It is no longer possible to ignore that climate change and marine litter are inextricably linked, although these interactions and the resulting effects vary widely across oceanic regions and depend on the particular characteristics of specific marine environments. Holistic climate resilience approaches, that integrate other local stressors as well as active interventions, offer a suitable framework to incorporate the consideration of marine litter where that is deemed to be a risk, and to steer, coordinate and prioritise research and monitoring, as well as management, policy, planning and action to effectively tackle the combined risks and impacts from climate change and marine litter.

RevDate: 2022-05-07

Kumar D, S Rawat (2022)

Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of threatened medicinal orchid Satyrium nepalense D. Don in India.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

It is vital to understand the distribution area of a threatened plant species for its better conservation and management planning. Satyrium nepalense (family: Orchidaceae) is a threatened terrestrial orchid species with valuable medicinal and nutritional properties. The survival of S. nepalense in wild conditions has been challenged by increasing global surface temperature. Hence, understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is crucial to conserve and restore this species. In present study, Maxent species distribution modeling algorithm was used to simulate the current distribution of S. nepalense in India and predict the possible range shift in projected future climate scenarios. A set of 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database were used to predict the potential suitable habitats in current climatic condition and four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios by integrating five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for future distribution modeling of species for the years 2050 and 2070. Furthermore, change analysis was performed to identify the suitable habitat in current and future climate for delineating range expansion (gain), contraction (loss), and stable (no change) habitats of species. The Maxent model predicted that ~ 2.38% of the geographical area in India is presently climatically suitable for S. nepalense. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of studied species were the mean temperature of warmest quarter, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature seasonality. Under future climate change scenarios, the total suitable habitat of S. nepalense will increase slightly in the Himalayan region and likely to migrate towards northward, but in the Western Ghats region, the suitable areas will be lost severely. The net habitat loss under four RCP scenarios was estimated from 26 to 39% for the year 2050, which could further increase from 47 to 60% by the year 2070. The finding of the predictive Maxent modeling approach indicates that warming climates could significantly affect the potential habitats of S. nepalense and hence suitable conservation measures need to be taken to protect this threatened orchid species in wild conditions.

RevDate: 2022-05-06

Godlee F (2022)

Who cares about climate change?.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 377:o1150.

RevDate: 2022-05-06

He P, Ma X, Z Sun (2022)

Interannual variability in summer climate change controls GPP long-term changes.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(22)00736-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with implications for the functioning of the Earth system and the provision of ecosystem services. How vegetation responds to a changing environment is an important scientific issue, but there is a lack of coverage of the relative contributions that long-term variation and interannual variability in vegetation across seasons play in ecosystem response to global change. Here, we used four terrestrial ecosystem models provided by MsTMIP to examine four key environmental drivers of gross primary productivity (GPP) change over the period 1901-2010. Our findings showed that (1) for all seasons, interannual variability in climate change are the main environmental factor controlling seasonal GPP variability. (2) Summer is the key season controlling the variation of annual GPP, and its long-term trend and interannual variability can explain 61.50% of the variation of grassland GPP in China. (3) Interannual variability in summer climate change exceeded the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen deposition as the controlling component (more than 40%) of long-term variation in Chinese grassland GPP. These studies highlight the important role of interannual variability in climate in reshaping the seasonality of vegetation growth, and will provide a precursor to future environmental drivers that can be precisely attributed to global vegetation change.

RevDate: 2022-05-06

Vitillo JG, Eisaman MD, Aradóttir ESP, et al (2022)

The role of carbon capture, utilization, and storage for economic pathways that limit global warming to below 1.5°C.

iScience, 25(5):104237 pii:S2589-0042(22)00507-7.

The 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, for the first time, stated that CO2 removal will be necessary to meet our climate goals. However, there is a cost to accomplish CO2 removal or mitigation that varies by source. Accordingly, a sensible strategy to prevent climate change begins by mitigating emission sources requiring the least energy and capital investment per ton of CO2, such as new emitters and long-term stationary sources. The production of CO2-derived products should also start by favoring processes that bring to market high-value products with sufficient margin to tolerate a higher cost of goods.

RevDate: 2022-05-06

Hermann M, Jansen R, van de Glind J, et al (2022)

A transportable temperature and heatwave control device (TENTACLE) for laboratory and field simulations of different climate change scenarios in aquatic micro- and mesocosms.

HardwareX, 11:e00307 pii:S2468-0672(22)00052-9.

Future global climate change with higher mean temperatures and increased intensity and frequency of heatwaves as extreme weather events will affect aquatic ecosystems with, yet, unpredictable severity and consequences. Although models suggest increased risk of species extinction up to the year 2050 for series of different climate change scenarios, environmental complexity may result in unconsidered effects of future temperature alterations on ecosystems. Apart from these environmental changes, additional anthropogenic stressors, e.g. chemical release, may cause unprecedented interaction effects on ecosystems. Ongoing efforts to better understand such temperature-chemical interaction effects comprise almost exclusively experimental designs using constant temperature regimes instead of environmentally realistic daily temperature variations. In this paper we describe an Arduino-based temperature and heatwave control device (TENTACLE) that is transportable, inexpensive, multifunctional, and easily reproducible. TENTACLE offers water temperature monitoring and manipulation of up to 3 different climate change-related scenarios: i) natural (ambient) sinusoidal fluctuations (laboratory applications), ii) elevated fluctuations, and iii) heatwaves as extreme events. The use of replaceable heating elements and low-cost materials suitable for field studies creates a high flexibility for researchers who may conduct in- or out-door, small- or large-scale, fresh- or salt-water experiments at different geographical locations.

RevDate: 2022-05-06

Teixeira CP, Fernandes CO, Ahern J, et al (2022)

Plant traits database for climate change adaptation and mitigation in Northwest Portugal.

Data in brief, 42:108193 pii:S2352-3409(22)00397-3.

The database presented in this data article is related to the article "Adaptive planting design and management framework for urban climate change adaptation and mitigation" [1]. It includes a list of 287 plant species presently occurring in Porto, Portugal, more precisely in urban green spaces with high urban ecological novelty levels. The plant species in this list were classified and organized according to several traits with a particular focus on plant species' adaptation, mitigation, and ornamental characteristics. Data collection resorted to articles, books, and various open access and online datasets. Data were organized in an Excel file that organizes information on more than 50 plant species traits/variables.

RevDate: 2022-05-05

Reed KA, Wehner MF, CM Zarzycki (2022)

Author Correction: Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change.

Nature communications, 13(1):2589 pii:10.1038/s41467-022-30242-6.

RevDate: 2022-05-05

Pinke Z, Decsi B, Jámbor A, et al (2022)

Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production.

Scientific reports, 12(1):7374.

Charting the long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas and the relation of yields to climatic and economic drivers, two profound spatial processes become apparent. One consequence of the relatively late modernization of Eastern Europe has been to shift the focus of grain production from West to East. The warming trend prevailing over the past decades in the summer and winter seasons has been accompanied by a South to North shift in the harvested areas. The combination of these two processes has meant that the north-eastern sector of the European grain chessboard has emerged as the main beneficiary. There, the relatively low sensitivity of cereals to climatic change plus high economic growth rates have been accompanied by the most dynamic increases in cereal yields on the continent. As a result, a modern version of the 3000 year-old grain distribution system of the Ancient World is being restored before our eyes. One noteworthy finding is that increasing January-March temperatures have had a significant positive impact on wheat yields from Northern to South-Eastern Europe, and this is, at least in part, compensating for the negative impact of summer warming.

RevDate: 2022-05-05

Abd-Elaty I, Kushwaha NL, Grismer ME, et al (2022)

Cost-effective management measures for coastal aquifers affected by saltwater intrusion and climate change.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(22)02752-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Sustainable management of natural water resources and food security in the face of changing climate conditions is critical to the livelihood of coastal communities. Increasing inundation and saltwater intrusion (SWI) will likely adversely affect agricultural production and the associated beach access for tourism. This study uses an integrated surface-ground water model to introduce a new approach for retardation of SWI that consists of placing aquifer fill materials along the existing shoreline using Coastal Land Reclamation (CLR). The modeling results suggest that the artificial aquifer materials could be designed to decrease SWI by increasing the infiltration area of coastal precipitation, collecting runoffs from the catchment area, and applying treated wastewater or desalinated brackish water-using coastal wave energy to reduce water treatment costs. The SEAWAT model was applied to verify that it correctly addressed Henry's problem and then applied to the Biscayne aquifer, Florida, USA. In this study, to better inform Coastal Aquifer Management (CAM), we developed four modeling scenarios, namely, Physical Surface Barriers (PSB), including the artificial aquifer widths, permeability, and side slopes and recharge. In the base case scenario without artificial aquifer placement, results show that seawater levels would increase aquifer salinity and displace large amounts of presently available fresh groundwater. More specifically, for the Biscayne aquifer, approximately 0.50% of available fresh groundwater will be lost (that is, 41,192 m3) per km of the width of the aquifer considering the increasing seawater level. Furthermore, the results suggest that placing the PSB aquifer with a smaller permeability of <100 m per day at a width of approximately 615 m increases the available fresh groundwater by approximately 45.20 and 43.90% per km of shoreline, respectively. Similarly, decreasing the slope on the aquifer-ocean side and increasing the aquifer recharge will increase freshwater availability by about 43.90 and 44.50% per km of the aquifer. Finally, placing an aquifer fill along the shallow shoreline increases net revenues to the coastal community through increased agricultural production and possibly tourism that offset fill placement and water treatment costs. This study is useful for integrated management of coastal zones by delaying aquifer salinity, protecting fresh groundwater bodies, increasing agricultural lands, supporting surface water supplies by harvesting rainfall and flash flooding, and desalinating saline water using wave energy. Also, the feasibility of freshwater storage and costs for CAM is achieved in this study.

RevDate: 2022-05-05

Wang H, Wang WJ, Liu Z, et al (2022)

Combined effects of multi-land use decisions and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Northeast China.

Journal of environmental management, 315:115131 pii:S0301-4797(22)00704-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Land use intensification and climate change have resulted in substantial changes in the provision of ecosystem services, particularly in China that experienced sharp increases in population growth and demands for goods and energy. To protect the environment and restore the degraded ecosystems, the Chinese government has implemented multiple national ecological restoration projects. Yet, the combined effects of climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) over large spatial scales that brace multiple land use decisions and great environmental heterogeneity remain unclear. We assessed the combined effects of LULCC and climate change on water-related ecosystem services (water provision and soil conservation services) from 1990s to 2020s in Northeast China using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. We found that water yield decreased by 9.78% and soil retention increased by 30.51% over the past 30 years. LULCC and climate change exerted negative effects on water yield whereas they both enhanced soil retention; LULCC interacted with climate change to have relatively small inhibitory effects on water yield and large facilitation effects on soil retention. Changes in water yield were mainly attributed to climate change, while soil retention was largely influenced by LULCC and its interaction with climate change. Our research highlights the importance of land use decisions and its interactive effects with climate change on ecosystem services in a heavily disturbed temperate region, and provides important information to inform future land management and policy making for sustaining diverse ecosystem services and ensuring human wellbeing.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )